WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538)

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

What would be the difference between me as a villager knowing I wasn't going to get lynched or me as a wolf knowing I wasn't going to get lynched? Either way, I'd want to play it off like I didn't know that fact before it happened. Especially since at the time, the likely seer was still alive and I definitely would not have wanted to need to reveal.

Why would you want to not give away this crucial information? For all you knew EF was the seer and you were moving the lynch ONTO the seer. If I'm the Duke I normally come out and reveal it straight away as I really think that's the optimal Duke play. But even if you don't think that, once it became clear you were a viable target why not reveal your powers?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

And with the logic that it was either an extra vote or non vote that saved me, there still would have been a 50% chance I was going to be lynched. You are arguing that I knew I wasn't to get lynched, but an extra / cancelling vote power wouldn't have made me thing that. My avoid a lynch power would.

This is why I don't doubt that you, or less likely another wolf, have the power to move lynch as you claim. It's the Thor/BG part of the claim that I call shenanigans about.

[Danny]

Uh, I am not the duke

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Why would you want to not give away this crucial information? For all you knew EF was the seer and you were moving the lynch ONTO the seer. If I'm the Duke I normally come out and reveal it straight away as I really think that's the optimal Duke play. But even if you don't think that, once it became clear you were a viable target why not reveal your powers?

To continue my argument: Especially because you had to know that by deflecting off of you you'd be the center of attention today.

[Danny]

So you are saying I should have revealed as Thor day one? And with the seer out there?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Uh, I am not the duke

You have a duke like power. The end result is the same. I publicly claim Duke when I'm the Duke because the wolves have a low incentive to kill the Duke when the BG and Seer are still out there. So publicly revealing your ability to shift the lynch actually seems like a great way to distract from your supposed BG abilities.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

So you are saying I should have revealed as Thor day one? And with the seer out there?

I am not saying you should have claimed Thor. Only revealed a power you had. Chubby seems to have revealed a power (his odd statement about j23) without claiming a specific role.

[Danny]

Sorry, but that would have been an awful play. There was a chance someone else would get lynched out right and that would have avoided this whole situation. And if I revealed last minute, we'd be in the exact situation we are in now but wouldn't had the chance to possibly avoid revealing today.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

You have a duke like power. The end result is the same. I publicly claim Duke when I'm the Duke because the wolves have a low incentive to kill the Duke when the BG and Seer are still out there. So publicly revealing your ability to shift the lynch actually seems like a great way to distract from your supposed BG abilities.

So I should have claimed duke, then have the real duke choose to duke it to me?

Sorry, but your suggested play for me would have been terrible.

[Barkeep49]

To all those who believe Danny:

Can you explain why dubb was killed? If Danny is a villager, killing dubb doesn't make Danny seem suspicious as the wolves would have thought Danny was going to be lynched. Therefore, there would need to be another reason to kill dubb. There very possibly is another reason, but this seems like an important thing to consider.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I am not saying you should have claimed Thor. Only revealed a power you had. Chubby seems to have revealed a power (his odd statement about j23) without claiming a specific role.

Yes, because last minute cryptic reveals work so well...

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

So I should have claimed duke, then have the real duke choose to duke it to me?

Sorry, but your suggested play for me would have been terrible.

I'm saying you should have said, late in the day, "I am not the Duke, but I do have the ability to move the lynch off me and to the second place person." This has the virtue of being true and doesn't reveal you being Thor/BG or otherwise claim anything false.

[Danny]

I did lol at you wanting me to play like Chubby though

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Yes, because last minute cryptic reveals work so well...

He wasn't lynched was he?

[Thomkal]

Well there were four experienced players leading or tied for the lead yesterday, so I don't think the wolves would hesitate to spread their votes out amongst any of them and be happy with whomever got taken out if they were all villagers. With the apparant passing of an object between Lathum and Chubby and Danny's reveal it makes it more difficult to vote for any of them right now on the off-chance they are all telling the truth. I find it hard to believe that Lathum would pass something to somebody he's voting for today though unless Chubby's response to the passing of it gave him some information about Chubby's evilness. Danny's reveal if fake is a good one. We apparantly lost our seer yesterday and no doubt the wolves would love to get the real Thor to reveal as well.

The safer vote today might be one of the EagleFan voters since he's the known good of the bunch right now.

Hate to disappear on you guys again, but more stuff came up today that's gonna make me not as active again for most of the afternoon. Sorry about this.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

I did lol at you wanting me to play like Chubby though

I agree Chubby can raise suspicion with his play, but often that suspicion is unfair.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

He wasn't lynched was he?

That's normal behavior for him, you know full well, me or a number of other players could not get away with doing that.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Well you could try actually telling us stuff instead of just making cryptic comments all the time. Did you pass the mistletoe to Hoops? Did you pass the mistletoe to Dubb? Did you forget to give an order for the mistletoe? I think those are the three explanations I can think of.

I didnt come out and saw it because I wanted to see what happened while I slept. I passed the misstletoe to Dubb. Whether he died because I sent it to him or because of a separate action, I dunno. Based on my clarifying questions to JAG though, I would defer to my passing it to him causing his death. According to the rules, there is a hidden rule with items, I wouldnt be shocked if I found out the hard way.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm, I've got the mistletoe - thought I was pretty transparent with my hints earlier - so I'm confused by these comments. I wanted to trust the person who came forward saying they had the mistletoe, but these comments don't make it easy for me to extend that trust blindly.

Based on my comments, why would you assume my comments would clash with yours? I clearly stated that I no longer had the mistletoe. If that were true and you had it, you would have to have known who sent you the mistletoe. Of course, if you didn't have to pass it (when you claimed your hints yesterday were being passed to the board), wouldnt it mean you are Loki? Since that item is for his use in killing?

Is these something I am missing?

[Danny]

FWIW though, I can't see a wolf being as adamant as BK is. They probably would be more likely to fall in line and not risk standing out.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

That's normal behavior for him, you know full well, me or a number of other players could not get away with doing that.

And I do concede as much in the post before this one. But you full well could have gotten away with the reveal I mention in 562.

I would love to hear you, or someone who believes you, explain why dubb is killed if you're a villager. I don't mean that rhetorically, as I think that's one of the pieces of evidence against you, but one which could be persuasively explained away.

What can't be explained away is that your lack of reveal predictably could have cost us a role villager and would have were it not that person's power to escape lynch as well.

[J23]

I honestly don't know where Chubby got his info from, but I can confirm that I am indeed a good guy

As for Danny, I'm leaning toward believing the reveal, and even if it's bogus, I don't think it's terrible to push it off until later. If they're NKing random targets, there's a chance they hit Thor and we know who the next lynch target is at that point. I would certainly be cautious about passing him Mjollnir though until we can hopefully get a bit more confirmation.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

FWIW though, I can't see a wolf being as adamant as BK is. They probably would be more likely to fall in line and not risk standing out.

To be fair I play aggressively as both wolf and villager.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

And I do concede as much in the post before this one. But you full well could have gotten away with the reveal I mention in 562.

I would love to hear you, or someone who believes you, explain why dubb is killed if you're a villager. I don't mean that rhetorically, as I think that's one of the pieces of evidence against you, but one which could be persuasively explained away.

What can't be explained away is that your lack of reveal predictably could have cost us a role villager and would have were it not that person's power to escape lynch as well.

The first point is fair, and to be honest I didn't really think of doing this.

Without looking at his posts to see if there was any hinting of a role, I honestly don't know why Dubb was killed.

I felt confident EF was not a roled player as he was the leading vote getter before the swing to me

[Thomkal]

Ok one more post before I go. I have to say I'm surprised Chubby was not the nightkill choice for the wolves. Revealing that he apparantly has some info on another player had to have made the wolves think that he might have/could get info on any of them too, which makes his still being alive interesting to say the least.

Barkeep this is a game with a different ruleset, so while I find it a very convenient reveal given his situation, I'm not ready to completely mistrust it either at this point.

I think its also unlikely dubb was killed for any information from his posts, but more likely because he can be a strong villager and a better to take out as early as possible kind of target. We likely won't know why he was taken out until the game is over I think unless someone has some info they have not revealed yet about it.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

To all those who believe Danny:

Can you explain why dubb was killed? If Danny is a villager, killing dubb doesn't make Danny seem suspicious as the wolves would have thought Danny was going to be lynched. Therefore, there would need to be another reason to kill dubb. There very possibly is another reason, but this seems like an important thing to consider.

They were fishing for roled players? If that's the play it worked pretty well, but I have to say that I don't completely understand what you're looking for here.

[Telle]

I'm willing to give Danny the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. Not quite "trusted", but at least enough to put him into my "likely good" category.

As to why dubb was night killed? I'm guessing they were just seer fishing and got lucky. There is rarely grand conspiracy reasons for night kills, especially so early on.

[Thomkal]

And of course someone comes out with info about Dubb while I was typing this. So it could be the wolves night kill was blocked or they took some other action last night instead of a nightkill.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm willing to give Danny the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. Not quite "trusted", but at least enough to put him into my "likely good" category.

As to why dubb was night killed? I'm guessing they were just seer fishing and got lucky. There is rarely grand conspiracy reasons for night kills, especially so early on.

That's how I feel, I don't quite understand why Danny's reveal has to be connected with dubb's death.

[jeheinz72]

I vaugely remember dubb from way back when, does he have any kind of "rep"?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mckerney

They were fishing for roled players? If that's the play it worked pretty well, but I have to say that I don't completely understand what you're looking for here.

When I'm a wolf I am trying to take out the seer followed by the BG. The two biggest threats to me. So I read carefully between the lines for any indication that a player might be one of those roles. If I don't find one of those indicators I kill off people who can be really good villagers. What I'm hoping for is that someone can point to something which dubb posted which, in retrospect or if the wolves were looking for it, tipped his being the seer. Otherwise we're left with only an attempt to take out a threat with the hope he also has a role. And in that scenario the threat could easily be to Danny as to not Danny wolves.

[bhlloy]

unvote MrBug

I'm glad he's come out and confirmed my thinking on Dubb... I think he's a bit higher on my villager trust list now, and certainly not somebody I'm looking to vote for right now

No idea where else to go with this though...

[EagleFan]

Busy as h*** today. Trying to get some time but doubtful until this evening.

My plan would be that hoops (substitute with the person that has the mistletoe on any given day) pick a person to pass the mistletoe to (if he has to pass it at all). Announce as close to the deadline as possible who you are passing it to.

If anything then happens to me we will then be able to figure out who was the cause of it.

Don't pass it to me, that only leaves me open to trouble.

[EagleFan]

vote Lathum

dubb's dead, how can Lathum not be behind it?

(subject to change)

[mauchow]

I have to say I am about 75/25 in not believing Danny. It just sounds and feels....wolfy. But I also understand we really can't vote him out in the event he is who he says he is.

I want to try getting my vote in earlier today so I don't stress about it like last night..and I may not be around as much towards the deadline. I'm gonna eat my Ham sandwich and put a vote in soon.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Busy as h*** today. Trying to get some time but doubtful until this evening.

My plan would be that hoops (substitute with the person that has the mistletoe on any given day) pick a person to pass the mistletoe to (if he has to pass it at all). Announce as close to the deadline as possible who you are passing it to.

If anything then happens to me we will then be able to figure out who was the cause of it.

Don't pass it to me, that only leaves me open to trouble.

Are you under the assumption that there is more than one misstletoe in the game?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I have to say I am about 75/25 in not believing Danny. It just sounds and feels....wolfy. But I also understand we really can't vote him out in the event he is who he says he is.

I want to try getting my vote in earlier today so I don't stress about it like last night..and I may not be around as much towards the deadline. I'm gonna eat my Ham sandwich and put a vote in soon.

This is actually a fair point, and one others have gotten at, but which resonated with me here. If I'm wrong about Danny the downside is considerable. Makes me reconsider whether lynching Danny today really is the best move.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I feel like everyone so easily believing Danny is causing me to argue harder than I actually believe about him being a wolf, but the ease of which Danny has people believing him is surprising to me.

I don't think people are believing it very easily. In fact I don't think I've ever seen an uncontested reveal be met with so little belief. Three or four people have commented heavily on why it might be a fake, a couple of people have said they're going to assume it's not a fake until there's a counter reveal, and maybe one person has just commented that they believe it.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't think people are believing it very easily. In fact I don't think I've ever seen an uncontested reveal be met with so little belief. Three or four people have commented heavily on why it might be a fake, a couple of people have said they're going to assume it's not a fake until there's a counter reveal, and maybe one person has just commented that they believe it.

Hmm. Interesting that we have divergent opinions. Let me gather all of the reactions in one post so we can see.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

To all those who believe Danny:

Can you explain why dubb was killed? If Danny is a villager, killing dubb doesn't make Danny seem suspicious as the wolves would have thought Danny was going to be lynched. Therefore, there would need to be another reason to kill dubb. There very possibly is another reason, but this seems like an important thing to consider.

Didn't realize there's a whole other page, so maybe this is answered below, but my answer would be ... because they have to kill someone? Day one they very likely picked someone who wasn't involved in the voting, and wasn't likely to be guarded. Why not dubb?

That said, I also believe it may have been because of his stance on Danny.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This is actually a fair point, and one others have gotten at, but which resonated with me here. If I'm wrong about Danny the downside is considerable. Makes me reconsider whether lynching Danny today really is the best move.

I can't say that I completely trust him, but still think that we should proceed with out actions today assuming he is telling the truth. We know that Thor is in the game, so if his reveal isn't on the level we'll find out soon enough. If he's a wolf there's no point pressing him on it now, we just need to hope that the real Thor knows the right time to deal with him.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This is actually a fair point, and one others have gotten at, but which resonated with me here. If I'm wrong about Danny the downside is considerable. Makes me reconsider whether lynching Danny today really is the best move.

I don't see how it would be a good move to lynch Danny today. If he is a wolf we could still vote him out 2 or 3 days from now. I'm not sure I believe him but I don't think we should risk losing Thor either at this point.

[Barkeep49]

Here's what people have said about Danny:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'll choose to believe Danny until there is no reason to. He could easily be a wolf fake revealing, but if he is we can go down that path later in the game.

Originally Posted by bhlloy

For now, yes. If it's a fake reveal it will come out in the wash in a couple of days. There's better places to go than a runaway on somebody who has revealed and not been challenged on it.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Certainly could be a fake, Barkeep, I think revealing this early is a play wolf Danny might make, knowing he has a very high odds of being the lynch target, and can then argue he revealed early, must be a villager.

I don't think his reveal sounds fishy itself though. One lynch avoid for a vital village role is reasonable, especially since we don't know how his other ability works.

No reason to vote him, and I don't think any reason for a real Thor to reveal if there is one. We've got plenty of time to catch Danny at it if he's faking.

unvote danny

Oh well, it was too easy. Now back to the drawing board.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Danny, Hoops and Autumn gets lots of night kills - to me it's only fair that they don't get lynched as much. (Irony eh Autumn). You're doing the wolves work for them by lynching them.

In this case though I think Danny is a big fat liar. He was all "Good luck village!" and stuff last night. Sure he could be trying to cover himself so the wolves would be less suspicious of him but it seems like it's standard wolf who knows they're not going to get killed actions and then he's seen the way the land lies today and is trying to get as much as possible out of it all by flushing out Thor or getting his hands on the hammer.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Well there were four experienced players leading or tied for the lead yesterday, so I don't think the wolves would hesitate to spread their votes out amongst any of them and be happy with whomever got taken out if they were all villagers. With the apparant passing of an object between Lathum and Chubby and Danny's reveal it makes it more difficult to vote for any of them right now on the off-chance they are all telling the truth. I find it hard to believe that Lathum would pass something to somebody he's voting for today though unless Chubby's response to the passing of it gave him some information about Chubby's evilness. Danny's reveal if fake is a good one. We apparantly lost our seer yesterday and no doubt the wolves would love to get the real Thor to reveal as well.

The safer vote today might be one of the EagleFan voters since he's the known good of the bunch right now.

Hate to disappear on you guys again, but more stuff came up today that's gonna make me not as active again for most of the afternoon. Sorry about this.

Originally Posted by J23

I honestly don't know where Chubby got his info from, but I can confirm that I am indeed a good guy

As for Danny, I'm leaning toward believing the reveal, and even if it's bogus, I don't think it's terrible to push it off until later. If they're NKing random targets, there's a chance they hit Thor and we know who the next lynch target is at that point. I would certainly be cautious about passing him Mjollnir though until we can hopefully get a bit more confirmation.

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm willing to give Danny the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. Not quite "trusted", but at least enough to put him into my "likely good" category.

As to why dubb was night killed? I'm guessing they were just seer fishing and got lucky. There is rarely grand conspiracy reasons for night kills, especially so early on.

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I have to say I am about 75/25 in not believing Danny. It just sounds and feels....wolfy. But I also understand we really can't vote him out in the event he is who he says he is.

I want to try getting my vote in earlier today so I don't stress about it like last night..and I may not be around as much towards the deadline. I'm gonna eat my Ham sandwich and put a vote in soon.

For people who've commented about Danny multiple times I've taken either the last post, if the comments evolved, or the post which most clearly states their position. I've also not found a good post which captures my feelings on Danny post reveal so here is my position:

I think Danny is, more likely than not wolf. I don't buy the combined BG/Duke powers. I don't think Danny's reveal is consistent with his player yesterday. But I put the percentage that he's a wolf at say a 52% likelihood which leaves a substantial and consequential % saying he is telling the truth. This would make a Danny vote a no brainer for me (much better odds he's a wolf than randomly voting another player) were it not for the downside to his vote.

[Autumn]

Frankly, if Danny turns out to be a wolf I would be looking at Barkeep next, his insistence on hammering Danny over this feels a bit contrived.

BK, you may be 100% right that this is a fake reveal. I think most people have conceded that's a possibility. Are you suggesting we vote Danny today? I'm not sure where you're going with all this.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Ok one more post before I go. I have to say I'm surprised Chubby was not the nightkill choice for the wolves. Revealing that he apparantly has some info on another player had to have made the wolves think that he might have/could get info on any of them too, which makes his still being alive interesting to say the least.

This is why I passed my item to him, I think it could help against a wolf attack.

I also passed it to him prior to him putting on a tinfoil hat and going crazy on me.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

With the apparant passing of an object between Lathum and Chubby and Danny's reveal it makes it more difficult to vote for any of them right now on the off-chance they are all telling the truth.

This doesn't clear my suspicion of Chubby for me without knowing the nature of the item. If MrBug is correct that his passing of an item to dubb may have resulted in his death then it's reasonable to think there may be an item that will kill a wolf character if it's passed to them. Lathum could have been trying for a kill if he passed something to Chubby.

[Barkeep49]

So I'm going to classify people, including using Racer's post in 591, the following ways:

Strong belief: Lathum, bhlloy, Thomkal, Telle
Weak belief: Autumn, j23, Racer
Disbelief: Barkeep, Narcizo, mau

You might disagree with my strong belief people, but if you say I'll believe them until I have evidence saying not to, that is, in effect, really believing them.

[Autumn]

See what I mean, BK? I don't think a single one of those quotes flat out said anyone believed him. They range from "it's a fake," to "well it could be a fake but let's assume it's not for now".

You've got a strong wolf vibe out of this, so I guess i can understand why you're gnawing on it, but from the outside it just feels like a bit much.

Let's assume Danny's a wolf. Who else does that implicate? Did the wolves bother trying to save him, or just vote him to make themselves look good?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Frankly, if Danny turns out to be a wolf I would be looking at Barkeep next, his insistence on hammering Danny over this feels a bit contrived.

BK, you may be 100% right that this is a fake reveal. I think most people have conceded that's a possibility. Are you suggesting we vote Danny today? I'm not sure where you're going with all this.

I had been suggesting that most of the morning. I'm leaning away from that now, after thinking about the downside possibility more, but haven't formed a new suggested path .

[Telle]

And what's the point of all this analysis of who believes what regarding Danny, Barkeep?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Frankly, if Danny turns out to be a wolf I would be looking at Barkeep next, his insistence on hammering Danny over this feels a bit contrived.

BK, you may be 100% right that this is a fake reveal. I think most people have conceded that's a possibility. Are you suggesting we vote Danny today? I'm not sure where you're going with all this.

Wait. Really? Contrived? HA!