POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I think Michigan is still in play, if Wayne County maintains %'s that's 193k for her, only behind 163k.

Clinton won that city by over 200k votes, Philly has her running 3-1 on him in the cities, if that holds it'd be enough. Just not sure Wisconsin has enough left for her, even if Philly can somehow bail her out in PA.

[RainMaker]

Kamala was behind Andrew Yang in the polls in 2020. She's the historically bad candidate.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I agree, although my math says if the current rate continues she only gets another 130k from Wayne.

Yeah that last chunk wasn't good for her, 25% lead to an 19% one, she probably needs to be over 60% there but at 58 while Biden was up at 68. That R shift in cities is one of the stories of the night to me.

[Young Drachma]

Harris sent the crowd at Howard home for the night.

[RainMaker]

Who would have guessed lying about Biden’s cognitive health for 2 yrs, refusing to do an open convention for a new nominee,
never mentioning public healthcare & embracing fracking,
the Cheneys & a yr long slaughter of children in Gaza wouldn’t be a winning strategy?
1/

— Adam McKay (@ZombiePanther2) November 6, 2024

[Solecismic]

At this point, Trump has outperformed his percentages in 63 of 67 Pennsylvania counties. I don't think there's enough left in Philadelphia for Harris, but I think Casey has a chance - that one could well end up in recount territory.

[Young Drachma]

The Dems not being able to translate a billion dollars into turnout will surely be talked about. Harris didn't have the Obama skill, Biden would've been worse, but I don't think the 90s Third Way types will learn from this, they'll just point fingers.

[Brian Swartz]

- Georgia's been called.

- Margin in PA is over 200k. Philly should bring in another 100k margin roughly for Harris, but I don't think there's enough vote left for a realistic chance.

- Margin in Michigan is 220k+, pretty much same story there.

- Wisconsin hasn't improved, even Nevada looking Trumpy.

I'm facing facts and giving up at this point. Without being at all blasphemous, God help America, because we haven't the good judgement to help ourselves.

[Front Office Midget]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

You can't cry about fascism and democracy in peril and then do a bunch of stuff that show you don't actually give a shit about either. Just take the L, you all were wrong.

What does "you all were wrong" mean exactly? I voted for Kamala Harris because she is a better candidate and obviously better person than Donald Trump. I expected her to lose to Trump because I have heard so much negativity about her from the left.

But this is the process we were given. And I'm sorry you can't tell the difference between the policies of the two potential administrations.

Will this be the wake up call the Democratic Party needs? Highly doubtful, seeing as how little changed after 2016, 2004, or 2000... But I would take it over being represented to the world by an anti-intellectual misogynistic narcisisst xenophobe who wages trade wars and wouldn't mind crashing the entire economy to wage war at the idea of free movement of human peoples and other basic "American" ideals.

And there is a huge world of difference on environment and healthcare between the two parties. Obviously the Dems are not perfect (or even good?) on those issues, but I would at least prefer to HAVE an EPA and a public health option.

Hopefully we all sent a loud message to Genocide Joe and hopefully it was worth it. lol

[Solecismic]

Starting to see Pennsylvania called in places. That will do it.

[Edward64]

Oh well, chapter deaux.

Voter breakdown & demographics will be fascinating. Also the recriminations and denials

[Edward64]

CNN finally calls it (late).

[Raiders Army]

I hope this is a lesson in what a true threat to democracy is. Didn’t work in 2016 when the DNC fixed it for Clinton and it didn’t work for them in 2024 when they installed a diversity hire who never won a single Presidential primary despite running in two elections. When the people had a choice, it was clear.

[Qwikshot]

Serious question: Since Trump/Elon intend to destroy the economy for ...reasons, should I fully withdraw from my one 401k before they all are depressed to pay off any debt so I can try to weather four years (and probably a dictatorship)?

[albionmoonlight]

Not the result I wanted or expected

[albionmoonlight]

Though there was always the part of me that recognized that Trump, personally, always does better than people think he will, even as Trumpism through surrogates never seems to

[GrantDawg]

People are getting exactly what they asked for. I feel for the people who at least tried to stop it.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

Serious question: Since Trump/Elon intend to destroy the economy for ...reasons, should I fully withdraw from my one 401k before they all are depressed to pay off any debt so I can try to weather four years (and probably a dictatorship)?

Not Dave Ramsey, not financial advice, just opinion ...

Good odds your 401k will grow, not get depressed.

If you have a lot of debt and at high interest rates (e.g. credit cards), I'd pay off the debt regardless of who won. But 401k should be last option as you'll have a 10% penalty for withdrawing early. But Dave will caution you and say, it won't really work unless you address the why/how you got into alot of debt in the first place.

Oh, he's also say eat alot of beans & rice as you pay off debt

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I hope this is a lesson in what a true threat to democracy is. Didn’t work in 2016 when the DNC fixed it for Clinton and it didn’t work for them in 2024 when they installed a diversity hire who never won a single Presidential primary despite running in two elections. When the people had a choice, it was clear.

While I suspect we don’t agree on much, I will agree that the incompetence, naivety and insularity of the Democratic Party has a lot to answer for. A convicted felon who never went below a 53 disapproval rating the entire campaign just won a very convincing election.

Harris probably ran as good a campaign as she could and never had the slip up moment that many feared she would, but this is a chastening rebuke to the arrogance of running Biden again in the first place and then switching to the default option who was more unpopular with voters.

I’m only annoyed about the false hope in the last 48 hours and should have known better. We get the leaders we vote for and deserve.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Not Dave Ramsey, not financial advice, just opinion ...

Good odds your 401k will grow, not get depressed.

Yes, if you have a lot of debt and at high interest rates (e.g. credit cards), I'd pay off the debt regardless of who won. But Dave will caution you and say, it won't really work unless you address the why/how you got into alot of debt in the first place.

Oh, he's also say eat alot of beans & rice as you pay off debt.

I appreciate the response. I have a main 401k over 500k; I have one with my new company that was bought and thus is now not getting a match. It's about 50k and with a full withdrawl and penalties is should be about 22-24k and that pays off all new debt going into the new year.

I only think now might be the time because my wife was unemployed for a good chunk of the year but got a new job around june. So we'd be in the lower tax bracket. It might be the best time to pay off debt.

I am disciplined but my wife is more impulsive. Plus I got two boys who are now hitting the electronics age and while Lego and Matchbox cars are expensive, they ain't nothing compared to X-box or Steamdeck.

[Qwikshot]

It's disappointing, but I'm a middle aged straight white dude who is Christian and has a decent amount of money. I'll be fine.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I appreciate the response. I have a main 401k over 500k; I have one with my new company that was bought and thus is now not getting a match. It's about 50k and with a full withdrawl and penalties is should be about 22-24k and that pays off all new debt going into the new year.

I only think now might be the time because my wife was unemployed for a good chunk of the year but got a new job around june. So we'd be in the lower tax bracket. It might be the best time to pay off debt.

I am disciplined but my wife is more impulsive. Plus I got two boys who are now hitting the electronics age and while Lego and Matchbox cars are expensive, they ain't nothing compared to X-box or Steamdeck.

The 10% early withdrawal penalty is a tough pill to swallow. The $22-24k of debt payment doesn't sound like much relative to what you already have in the 401k ... and therefore, my assumption your earning power is pretty decent.

Personally, I don't think you should touch the 401k, you need as much as possible for your retirement. I would cut back elsewhere to pay off the debt.

[Edward64]

And damn, everyone's favorite grandmother (Boebert) will be back. I expected MTG but thought she was a goner.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

It's disappointing, but I'm a middle aged straight white dude who is Christian and has a decent amount of money. I'll be fine.

I’m trying to look at it this way as well. So much blame to go around. Currently my anger is at garland for dragging his feet for fear of looking partisan. How’s that going to work out for him when he’s facing a military tribunal ?

[Edward64]

Early analysis of Trump's base vs 2020

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...oll-rcna178603

1. Trump did better with Latinos
2. He did better with Blacks
3. He did better with women
4. He did better with younger, first time voters
5. He did better with double haters, picking lesser of two evils

The last two surprised me.

[Toddzilla]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I appreciate the response. I have a main 401k over 500k; I have one with my new company that was bought and thus is now not getting a match. It's about 50k and with a full withdrawl and penalties is should be about 22-24k and that pays off all new debt going into the new year.

If you want to make sure your 401k survives the incoming crash - and hoo, boy it's coming - move your assets into bonds and other low-risk, low-reward funds.

Or cash it all and put it under your mattress, the apocalypse is nigh

[Ksyrup]

Thank God KY does off-year statewide office elections or Beshear likely would have been caught up in a red wave. No wonder the GOP super majority wants to change that to align with the presidential elections.

Like Qwik said, older white, straight, Christians are going to do OK. But i feel for my 2 daughters who will likely try to raise families in the aftermath (or during) Trumpism's heyday. And seeing things like J6 defendants being pardoned and the elevation of people like Musk and RFK to positions of power is scary.

I've never been one to openly discuss politics except with those I'm comfortable with, but I definitely feel like I need to keep my head down and just grin and bear it because Trump has promised there's no room or mercy for dissenters in our country. Who knows how far down in insignificance that's going to go. By his own words, we have to expect the worst and be relieved if it's not as extreme as he promised.

[albionmoonlight]

Props to me for a full media blackout yesterday. I at least got a night of sleep instead of watching the returns trickle in red over the course of the night

[Ghost Econ]

I'm technically 50% Mexican, but you couldn't tell by looking or my name. In theory there's a non-zero chance living in SC that they could repeal anti-miscegination laws.

What's weird is that I'm not particularly religious. I'm technically Catholic but terrible at it. I'm of the feeling that this life is it and nothing else. It's unbelievably depressing, but you would think that would mean I shouldn't care about people I'll never interact with. All I should care about is what's best for me. But that's not how I feel. I'm not the only one getting this one shot, everyone is. If my life is slightly, immeasurably worse so some family from Guatemala sneaks into the US, so be it. Maybe their grandkids will be where I am after I'm gone because that slight decrease in my quality of life for 30 seconds helped make a difference.

That's what pisses me off about the "religious" folks voting overwhelmingly for Trump. Their ethos is I got mine, or some "other" is preventing me from getting it. God is just a get out of jail free card so they can be pieces of shit to people they irrationally hate.

/End rant

[Ghost Econ]

Also, the only shot the Dems have from current candidates are Mark Kelly, Beshear and Shapiro... and honestly it's probably just Kelly. If the climate is even remotely similar, the Dems cant win with a woman or minority at the top of the ticket.

[Ksyrup]

Oh I'm "Christian" but not engaged in faith at all. After my parents are gone, I might be more open about my lack of interest or care in matters involving organized religion, but I don't think it will matter either way. But I look the part - outside of my musical tastes, I guess.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

Also, the only shot the Dems have from current candidates are Mark Kelly, Beshear and Shapiro... and honestly it's probably just Kelly. If the climate is even remotely similar, the Dems cant win with a woman or minority at the top of the ticket.

As much as I love Beshear, I don't see his "we are the world" touchy-feely approach to politics working on a national level at all. Especially not after last night. A Senate run might be the more prudent move for him. Go after McConnell's seat.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

If you want to make sure your 401k survives the incoming crash - and hoo, boy it's coming - move your assets into bonds and other low-risk, low-reward funds.

Or cash it all and put it under your mattress, the apocalypse is nigh

That's the way I see it for this one 401k account, I can't contribute to it anymore and it won't have a match. I don't even think I can change what fund it is. At 48 with no end for retirement, it may go up to half a million but I'd like to snuff out my credit card and roof loan before it loses value.

[Lathum]

His insane trade wars are going to really fuck us all.

Eliminate the cheap labor that Americans won't do while making imported goods 20-30% more expensive is a hell of a mix.

[Lathum]

Dow futures are up big.

I did my part to eliminate Trumpism but now I have to pivot to what will be in it for me. We are in the 35% bracket but are deferring some long term incentives to drop to 32%. At best I doubt it goes up and hopefully goes down.

I still think any gains will be offset by his trade war that will wreck the economy.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

While I suspect we don’t agree on much, I will agree that the incompetence, naivety and insularity of the Democratic Party has a lot to answer for. A convicted felon who never went below a 53 disapproval rating the entire campaign just won a very convincing election.

Harris probably ran as good a campaign as she could and never had the slip up moment that many feared she would, but this is a chastening rebuke to the arrogance of running Biden again in the first place and then switching to the default option who was more unpopular with voters.

I’m only annoyed about the false hope in the last 48 hours and should have known better. We get the leaders we vote for and deserve.

I dunno. Harris’ “there’s nothing that comes to mind” is a huge slip up. I couldn’t buy the whole “new generation of leadership” when she’s 60. We go from octogenarians to sexagenarians?

Personally I couldn’t vote for Harris in good conscience. I also couldn’t vote for Trump. The fact that he is a convicted felon many times over and is closely linked to Epstein is inexcusable. I have no idea how anyone could vote for either candidate. How we ended up here is beyond me.

[Ksyrup]

I'm hopeful the more economic savvy legislators will move him off the tariffs and elminate the income tax stuff, but I really don't know where they stand on that. Having the GOP take over the consumer protection agencies will make life better for my professional business interests, no doubt.

To shift back to the election autopsy, Latino men were a 33 point swing from Biden to Trump.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

That's the way I see it for this one 401k account, I can't contribute to it anymore and it won't have a match. I don't even think I can change what fund it is. At 48 with no end for retirement, it may go up to half a million but I'd like to snuff out my credit card and roof loan before it loses value.

Unless there is something very special about your 401k, I'm pretty sure you can rollover your 401k into a Fidelity/Vanguard/Schwab IRA "brokerage" IRA penalty free. Then you can buy stocks, ETFs, funds etc.

Source: me. I've rolled over 401k funds from my company into outside IRA after I left and also while I was with the company.

Use rule of 72 as a guestimate. At 10% annual returns, it'll take about 7 years to double. So, 50k to 100k by 2032, then 200k by 2039.

BTW if there truly was going to be an Apocalypse, your 401k will be worthless anyway. Buy guns & ammo, food, maybe a nice off-grid compound, 4x4, learn skills like farming etc. If it's the zombie apocalypse, get back to religion

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

To shift back to the election autopsy, Latino men were a 33 point swing from Biden to Trump.

Hope they enjoy being the targets of hate crimes and deportation squads.

[Lathum]

Our best hope is that he is too lazy to actually do the things he says he’s going to do.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Our best hope is that he is too lazy to actually do the things he says he’s going to do.

Yep. At this point, to cut our losses, let him continue to enrich himself and family members since he's already blown through all the guardrails on that the first time through, no longer face criminal charges, and hope he leaves the structure of the government intact.

[JPhillips]

I don't expect the broadcast networks will actually lose their licenses, but they will all decide to self-censor ala Bezos so as to not piss off the GOP. I don't know how far we'll slide into Orbanism, but we're definitely headed in that direction.

[Ksyrup]

I've never taken the sleep and wellness features of my watch all that seriously - I use them for a general gut check to see if what I perceive jibes with what is measured. Usually it's pretty close, but I it's not like I use them for anything.

I went to bed shortly after 11 last night because I saw the end coming and didn't want to watch it. I ended up with "good" sleep despite getting up around 5:30 (wife is an elementary school sub today so she had to get up early). I felt like I slept fairly soundly and went to sleep pretty quickly, so that checked out. Then I did a wellness check. Stress level showed "high." I've done wellness checks once every week or two this year. First time my stress level has ever registered as high. Maybe these measurements are pretty accurate.

[BYU 14]

Curious what metrics it uses to measure stress?

[Lathum]

How bad of a candidate is Kari Lake that she’s 170k votes behind trumps total.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Yep. At this point, to cut our losses, let him continue to enrich himself and family members since he's already blown through all the guardrails on that the first time through, no longer face criminal charges, and hope he leaves the structure of the government intact.

It was never about Trump doing things; it was about his enablers doing things: Vance, Trump Jr, Musk, Miller, Bannon, Kennedy, etc...

They are going to destroy America for Americans and receive applause for it.

There is no integrity or accountability, we're going to have the 80's all over again with the markets.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Our best hope is that he is too lazy to actually do the things he says he’s going to do.

And incompetent.

[HerRealName]

At the end of the day, people are paying $50+ more per week on groceries. The Lincoln Project fantasy campaign rolling out Liz Cheney and not addressing a weekly reminder had no chance.

I'm sure this will be blamed on Bernie Sanders and national Democratic candidates will start running on immigrants eating dogs and cats the next time around as a lesson learned. If they just move right on every issue, like the Lincoln Project morons recommend, electoral success is guaranteed.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Unless there is something very special about your 401k, I'm pretty sure you can rollover your 401k into a Fidelity/Vanguard/Schwab IRA "brokerage" IRA penalty free. Then you can buy stocks, ETFs, funds etc.

Source: me. I've rolled over 401k funds from my company into outside IRA after I left and also while I was with the company.

Use rule of 72 as a guestimate. At 10% annual returns, it'll take about 7 years to double. So, 50k to 100k by 2032, then 200k by 2039.

BTW if there truly was going to be an Apocalypse, your 401k will be worthless anyway. Buy guns & ammo, food, maybe a nice off-grid compound, 4x4, learn skills like farming etc. If it's the zombie apocalypse, get back to religion

Yes I can rollover but that's not the point. The point is should I pay off the debt while my one account is probably at it's maximum value. If I try to keep this process going and I lose my job or encounter another hardship that results in a high cost (when costs will be higher), that opportunity won't be available.

[Passacaglia]

God I want to go MJ4H on this whole country