COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[AlexB]

Jonathan Pie isn't everyone's cup of tea, but I find even if I disagree with his politics, I generally find he's funny.

This is one of his videos that is half political commentary, half public service video.

As this is the non-political thread, skip to 2:00 and watch to the end to get to the clearest explanation and rationale why we should be wearing masks that I've seen
(Watch from the start of you don't mind a bit of politics)

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CDB8Del...d=ozpdwo5tsoyv

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

No, we don't yet know the number of deaths, say, for yesterday, but that doesn't mean they are far less than being reported. There's a discussion, perhaps, on how daily death reports are actually an accumulation of days due to a lag in receiving the information, but that doesn't mean that death counts are actually far lower than is being reported.

What I expect happens, just based on timelines we've seen previously, is that death counts will first be undercounted, then be roughly equal for a while, then be overcounted as the deaths subside, but reporting still lags. In a practical sense it's hard to see how it could work perfectly given the realities of having to record and report.

I'm not asking for the raw data to be precisely recorded in real time, and I'm not arguing that the death counts are being falsely inflated. I don't believe that. I'm simply asking for the reporting to provide the appropriate context.

It is not accurate to state that Texas had 174 Covid deaths in one day, when none of those deaths actually occurred during the past week and at that given point, the CDC data only showed 64 deaths in the previous 2 weeks. With testing numbers, we understand that a positive test reported yesterday bakes in a period of time for someone to actually be infected, get tested and get the result. No one believes a positive reported today means the person was infected yesterday.

With death numbers, it's not that simple. If you report that 174 people died yesterday, then that's what the numbers should show. It's not being reported in a way that suggests any kind of lag - certainly not to the point where the majority of the deaths may have occurred over a week earlier.

[Edward64]

Basically parents wanting kids to go back to school while acknowledging the risks. Gwinnett county has upper tier schools and higher SAT/ACT results in the GA.

It's tough situation for sure but think a reasonable answer is (1) combination of virtual and in-person as in kids rotating, enforce masks & social distancing, required temperature checks etc. and (2) confirmed cases are stabilizing/decreasing and not rising in the county (as it is right now).

Right now, I would vote for remote learning until it stabilizes again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/us/gw...ols/index.html

Coronavirus cases are surging in Gwinnett County, Georgia, where the numbers are among the highest in the state and also where parents and students are demanding schools reopen their doors for the new school year.

"The virus is not going away, we know it's not going away. We have to enforce some sort of normal," said one Gwinnett parent, Joanne Bayouk. "And though our normal is going to change, our kids need to go back."
Gwinnett County accounts for 14,442 of the state's more than 156,500 cases and 209 coronavirus related deaths, according to Georgia's Department of Public Health. On Monday, the county's public schools announced that the new school year would be online only.

Parents took to a closed Facebook group to express their opposition to the decision. The first day the group stood at 255 people. By day two there were about 1,400 people in the group, said the group's organizer, Kelly Willyard.
:
:
Parents in the county were given the option to vote on their preferred education plan for the new school year. A district-wide survey showed that 43% of parents prefer a return to in-person instruction, according to Gwinnett County schools. Another 23% prefer an option that combines in-person instruction with digital learning, while 34% of respondents prefer digital-only learning, the survey said.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Lathum

even if half the deaths are incorrectly reported thats 70K dead which is unacceptable.

This kind of thing is where I get off the bus. There is no scenario under which a LOT more than 70k weren't going to die because of the pandemic.

KSyrup has a point. I think the best answer is the one that has already been mentioned; look at trends not just what happened over a day or two. There's a limit to our data-gathering capabilities but we do get a pretty clear picture when looking at what's happening over weeks and months.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Basically parents wanting kids to go back to school while acknowledging the risks.

I'm curious what they would say to kids going back to school but teachers remotely teaching . Because the teacher risk is something that is generally ignored. Or I guess massive sneeze guards around the front of the room where the teacher teaches? But school districts are losing a ton of money and putting forward furlough days and who's going to pay for it?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

This kind of thing is where I get off the bus. There is no scenario under which a LOT more than 70k weren't going to die because of the pandemic.

KSyrup has a point. I think the best answer is the one that has already been mentioned; look at trends not just what happened over a day or two. There's a limit to our data-gathering capabilities but we do get a pretty clear picture when looking at what's happening over weeks and months.

I don't think you got my point. What I was saying the the people claiming the death numbers are inflated because of false reporting drive me crazy. Thats it.

[Drake]

Hmm. So lots of my FB feed has been taken over by people posting about various law enforcement offices stating they're not going to enforce governor-mandated public mask requirements because they're unconstitutional and didn't go through the legislative process.

Now, is it just me, or does this open a shit ton of loopholes for mandates the sheriff's office might want to enforce (like, say, curfews) in the future? I'd think a creative defense attorney in the right situation might be able to argue, "Hey, if mandate x is unconstitutional so you didn't enforce it, then mandate y must also be unconstitutional, so what you've just made here is an unlawful arrest."

I'm not an attorney, obviously. Just spit-balling here.

On the other hand, I do fully support the idea that a sheriff's office might choose to softly (or not at all) enforce a mandate because they don't have the manpower to play mask police, and they don't want the 911 lines tied up by people calling in to report that their neighbor wasn't wearing a mask while sunbathing in their back yard.

It just seems sort of stupidly political to go on the record saying you're not going to enforce something. But then again, I'm old enough to remember when the idea of a President just mandating shit instead of pushing legislation was considered controversial.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Drake

Hmm. So lots of my FB feed has been taken over by people posting about various law enforcement offices stating they're not going to enforce governor-mandated public mask requirements because they're unconstitutional and didn't go through the legislative process.

Now, is it just me, or does this open a shit ton of loopholes for mandates the sheriff's office might want to enforce (like, say, curfews) in the future? I'd think a creative defense attorney in the right situation might be able to argue, "Hey, if mandate x is unconstitutional so you didn't enforce it, then mandate y must also be unconstitutional, so what you've just made here is an unlawful arrest."

I'm not an attorney, obviously. Just spit-balling here.

On the other hand, I do fully support the idea that a sheriff's office might choose to softly (or not at all) enforce a mandate because they don't have the manpower to play mask police, and they don't want the 911 lines tied up by people calling in to report that their neighbor wasn't wearing a mask while sunbathing in their back yard.

It just seems sort of stupidly political to go on the record saying you're not going to enforce something. But then again, I'm old enough to remember when the idea of a President just mandating shit instead of pushing legislation was considered controversial.

I just love how everyone is a constitutional lawyer. My understanding is that since Jacobson vs. Massachusetts (which gave local governments the right to force vaccinations), it is established law that governments can enforce laws like "masks" laws. Until someone actually gets the Supreme Court to overturn Jacobson anyway. They had full "flu courts" in 1918 to enforce mask ordinances.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I don't think you got my point. What I was saying the the people claiming the death numbers are inflated because of false reporting drive me crazy. Thats it.

I don't see the relevance of the 70k number then, but understood.

As for me, I think they're wrong and deaths are actually understated overall, but I do think it's an understandable objection. There are multiple categories of deaths in both directions which don't fit neatly into 'COVID' or 'not-COVID'. There's no clean, obvious way to definitively account for the number of deaths, and in that situation people's biases and uncertainties are going to play a bigger role in what they think.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'm not asking for the raw data to be precisely recorded in real time, and I'm not arguing that the death counts are being falsely inflated. I don't believe that. I'm simply asking for the reporting to provide the appropriate context.

It is not accurate to state that Texas had 174 Covid deaths in one day, when none of those deaths actually occurred during the past week and at that given point, the CDC data only showed 64 deaths in the previous 2 weeks. With testing numbers, we understand that a positive test reported yesterday bakes in a period of time for someone to actually be infected, get tested and get the result. No one believes a positive reported today means the person was infected yesterday.

With death numbers, it's not that simple. If you report that 174 people died yesterday, then that's what the numbers should show. It's not being reported in a way that suggests any kind of lag - certainly not to the point where the majority of the deaths may have occurred over a week earlier.

I agree that a caveat that some deaths reported are lagging should be more of a part f coverage. At least here, that does happen when big adjustments are made. I specifically remember a day when NJ added a large number of past deaths and that was noted in reports.

Where I object is the idea presented in the chart that deaths are much lower than are being reported. We don't know that, and won't be able to verify that until later when all the deaths for a particular day are reported and counted. I think the original cited article, though not you, is trying to argue that deaths are much lower than the reported number. That's probably not right, and definitely not provable at this point.

[thesloppy]

FWIW it sounds like some of y'alls concerns about the death numbers might be best addressed by tracking 'excess deaths'? This article someone may have linked to earlier is still updated relatively regularly, lots of good stuff to chew on, and it says it's 'adjusted for lag' though looking at the charts that appears to mean that accurate numbers are lagging two weeks behind:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...h-toll-us.html

[MJ4H]

It's important to realize that deaths data is being reported two different ways:

1) by date reported - this is a mixed bag. It is inaccurate in terms of the time-table, but data trends tend to show up more quickly with this method. While the deaths they report aren't necessarily happening at one time, they are happening within a reasonably consistent period - one that's in the past, but they happened within a block of time. The exact numbers are inaccurate, but this is the quickest way to spot trends, at that's pretty important. Just don't rely on this for precise information, nor try to draw conclusions from short trends. It's also important to realize that the exact numbers usually don't wind up all that far off of what the deaths-by-date-of-death turn out to be. They aren't exact, but it's been pretty consistently evening out in the long term.

2) by date of death - this is what you'll get with state department of health data, most of the time, and from the CDC. These will be accurate by when people died, so they will tell the most accurate tale. However, that accuracy comes with a severe lag - pretty much always at least a week, and in some cases close to a month (in NW Arkansas, the lag for recent deaths reported was 25 days). This will also cause the right hand side of every graph to trend downwards. You can see past trends pretty well with this, but current trends will always be undervalued.

Media is usually careful to say which they are using: ie "the largest number of reported deaths on a certain date" or whatever. Not all do that, but from what I've noticed, it's usually the case. The fact that the average media-consumer does not know the difference between the two is a problem, but not necessarily one that is the fault of the media's. Of course, they could spend time in every broadcast or article noting the difference, and arguably should. I think in the current climate, the average person has the duty to stay informed about these things.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Basically parents wanting kids to go back to school while acknowledging the risks. Gwinnett county has upper tier schools and higher SAT/ACT results in the GA.

It's tough situation for sure but think a reasonable answer is (1) combination of virtual and in-person as in kids rotating, enforce masks & social distancing, required temperature checks etc. and (2) confirmed cases are stabilizing/decreasing and not rising in the county (as it is right now).

Right now, I would vote for remote learning until it stabilizes again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/us/gw...ols/index.html

I really wish everyone's behavior since schools closed in March reflected the current urgency to get the kids back in school in August.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

FWIW it sounds like some of y'alls concerns about the death numbers might be best addressed by tracking 'excess deaths'? This article someone may have linked to earlier is still updated relatively regularly, lots of good stuff to chew on, and it says it's 'adjusted for lag' though looking at the charts that appears to mean that accurate numbers are lagging two weeks behind:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...h-toll-us.html

Worldometers is reporting 148K deaths vs 180K deaths. It's not the exact same time periods though. So approx 21% more in excess deaths. TBH, this doesn't seem too unreasonable with all the confusion in the past 4 months etc.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

FWIW it sounds like some of y'alls concerns about the death numbers might be best addressed by tracking 'excess deaths'? This article someone may have linked to earlier is still updated relatively regularly, lots of good stuff to chew on, and it says it's 'adjusted for lag' though looking at the charts that appears to mean that accurate numbers are lagging two weeks behind:

That helps, but it doesn't really address most of the uncertainty I'm talking about. For example:

** If someone dies in an accident but was diagnosed positive with the virus (either before or after), is that an accident death or a virus death?

** People who don't go to the hospital because they are close to capacity and/or they fear contracting the virus, but die from other conditions such as liver, heart issues, etc. that were treatable. What %, if any, are virus deaths?

** Excess deaths compared to the norm for pneumonia and other respiratory ailments. Again, what % are virus deaths? We know some are due to undiagnosed COVID cases, but how many?

There are many such considerations without even getting into the effects of the various economic restrictions, which are also to some degree at least indirectly caused by the virus. The best information I've seen is that we are undercounting if anything, but we don't really know and it'll be years before we even have an informed estimate.

[miked]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Basically parents wanting kids to go back to school while acknowledging the risks. Gwinnett county has upper tier schools and higher SAT/ACT results in the GA.

It's tough situation for sure but think a reasonable answer is (1) combination of virtual and in-person as in kids rotating, enforce masks & social distancing, required temperature checks etc. and (2) confirmed cases are stabilizing/decreasing and not rising in the county (as it is right now).

Right now, I would vote for remote learning until it stabilizes again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/24/us/gw...ols/index.html

The other thing is that Gwinnett was not mandating masks. We want our kids to go to school safely, but are not willing to take the steps. I mean, Parkview has like 3,000+ kids (probably same with Berkmar and Brookwood). How do you have safe schools and keep teachers and staff safe with those numbers and discard reasonable safeguards?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miked

The other thing is that Gwinnett was not mandating masks. We want our kids to go to school safely, but are not willing to take the steps. I mean, Parkview has like 3,000+ kids (probably same with Berkmar and Brookwood). How do you have safe schools and keep teachers and staff safe with those numbers and discard reasonable safeguards?

They can't.

My wife is a special ed teacher. Whereas a regular teacher can keep social distance, special ed teachers don't have that luxury. I've heard plenty of times where her kids come in physical contact with her or she has to come in contact with them.

[Edward64]

FWIW, I went out to 3 different places today.

Got my haircut. Like the previous times, masks required to enter and while getting trimmed. Saw wiping of cc reader and good spacing. However, saw quite a few people entering/exiting the mall without masks.

Went to Best Buy to trade in my old iPad 3 (for $30 gift card). They were well organized, spaced line outside (I had to wait 10 min to get in). They had a desk at the entrance with free masks and sanitizers. At customer service, I saw the employee wipe down the table and cc reader after each customer.

Picked up Chinese for dinner. I arrived, went in and saw 7 other people (6 of them while middle-aged males) without masks waiting for pickup. The restaurant workers had masks on and could see 2 parties dining in and tables spaced apart.

But it pissed me off that the restaurant didn't ask all their guests to wear masks to enter (I get taking them off to eat while dining in). So f*cking simple to put up a sign, buy readily available masks etc. Food was good but I'm not going back anytime soon.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That helps, but it doesn't really address most of the uncertainty I'm talking about. For example:

** If someone dies in an accident but was diagnosed positive with the virus (either before or after), is that an accident death or a virus death?

** People who don't go to the hospital because they are close to capacity and/or they fear contracting the virus, but die from other conditions such as liver, heart issues, etc. that were treatable. What %, if any, are virus deaths?

** Excess deaths compared to the norm for pneumonia and other respiratory ailments. Again, what % are virus deaths? We know some are due to undiagnosed COVID cases, but how many?

There are many such considerations without even getting into the effects of the various economic restrictions, which are also to some degree at least indirectly caused by the virus. The best information I've seen is that we are undercounting if anything, but we don't really know and it'll be years before we even have an informed estimate.

There’s a global pandemic, and across the globe excess deaths are far higher than reported virus deaths.

In the UK at least, deaths were below the 5-year average before Covid, and are back below average again now we are in lull after lockdown

That would be a hell of a coincidence if the vast vast majority of these hundreds of thousands of global excess deaths were not attributable to the only global pandemic in living memory

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

That helps, but it doesn't really address most of the uncertainty I'm talking about. For example:

** If someone dies in an accident but was diagnosed positive with the virus (either before or after), is that an accident death or a virus death?

** People who don't go to the hospital because they are close to capacity and/or they fear contracting the virus, but die from other conditions such as liver, heart issues, etc. that were treatable. What %, if any, are virus deaths?

** Excess deaths compared to the norm for pneumonia and other respiratory ailments. Again, what % are virus deaths? We know some are due to undiagnosed COVID cases, but how many?

There are many such considerations without even getting into the effects of the various economic restrictions, which are also to some degree at least indirectly caused by the virus. The best information I've seen is that we are undercounting if anything, but we don't really know and it'll be years before we even have an informed estimate.

If you were living in Monaco, Andorra or on some tropical island, you may have a point about sample size and all, but the USA is too large and the data are from too long a period to not make the very reasonable assumptions about the excess of deaths being from hidden COVID-19 infections. As AlexB pointed out, more (smaller) countries are seeing the same trends.

In your example with people deciding not to see a doctor, you can still make a claim that they didn't die from COVID-19, but wouldn't have had this virus not caused them to stay at home and unintentionally decide to die at home from another illness. So if it's not that, it has to be something else that's seriously flying under the radar. Maybe we're all so adapted to global warming and the polluted atmosphere from cars and air planes (amongst others) that we're now unable to cope with fresher air? But that sounds way too out of the box and absurd that it makes more sense than to go with some of your and the hidden COVID-19 cases theories.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by AlexB

That would be a hell of a coincidence if the vast vast majority of these hundreds of thousands of global excess deaths were not attributable to the only global pandemic in living memory

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

you can still make a claim that they didn't die from COVID-19, but wouldn't have had this virus not caused them to stay at home and unintentionally decide to die at home from another illness. So if it's not that, it has to be something else that's seriously flying under the radar.

Sure I agree with that, but that still doesn't answer the question of how many. Since we know a LOT of deaths are caused by various economic restrictions that have been put in place. This is particularly true in developing countries who don't have the resources to minimize that damage with actions like the CARES act. All we can do right know is make rough informed guesses at how many would have died without those actions versus how many are dead because of them versus how many are dead directly because of the virus versus how many are dead indirectly because of it ...

I definitely agree that most of the these deaths are probably due to COVID and that most of the actions taken are necessary. I'm just saying there is a lot of uncertainty here. That uncertainty has fed a lot of hysteria on both wings of the issue.

[Edward64]

India is reporting 50K daily cases, US is 55K+. My guess is it's obviously much more in India and they are going to be in a world of hurt. Having been to India and the density of cities, the huge number of impoverished etc. I don't know how India will control this outbreak.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...07-27-20-intl/

India reports nearly 50,000 daily cases: India recorded its highest single-day jump of 49,931 new cases of Covid-19 on Sunday, its health ministry said Monday. The leap in cases came as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi claimed in a national address that his country's response to the pandemic has defied global expectations -- despite having the third highest case count in the world.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by AlexB

That would be a hell of a coincidence if the vast vast majority of these hundreds of thousands of global excess deaths were not attributable to the only global pandemic in living memory

These are the type of prisoner of the moment statements that cause the "its a hoax crowd" to latch on.
Hell there have been 4 Flu Global Pandemics in living memory
H1N1 - 2009
H3N2 - '68
H2N2 '58

Thats not counting Aids, or more regionalized things like EBola or SARS that still qualified as Global...

Im not trying to be Pendantic, but also dont fall trap into "this in uncharted waters" it isnt.
Life is fragile. This happens every 20 years or so.
Information is just much more widely (and rapidly) diseminated this time.

[AlexB]

I wasn’t alive for the earlier two, so I stand by my definition on those two

Didn’t think that H1N1 was ever declared a pandemic, but googled and I stand corrected

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Edward64

India is reporting 50K daily cases, US is 55K+. My guess is it's obviously much more in India and they are going to be in a world of hurt. Having been to India and the density of cities, the huge number of impoverished etc. I don't know how India will control this outbreak.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...07-27-20-intl/

I saw like 23% of Delhi residents have antibodies... No way they haven't had more deaths than the US, but CNN prefers the headlines with America #1

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

These are the type of prisoner of the moment statements that cause the "its a hoax crowd" to latch on.
Hell there have been 4 Flu Global Pandemics in living memory
H1N1 - 2009
H3N2 - '68
H2N2 '58

Thats not counting Aids, or more regionalized things like EBola or SARS that still qualified as Global...

Im not trying to be Pendantic, but also dont fall trap into "this in uncharted waters" it isnt.
Life is fragile. This happens every 20 years or so.
Information is just much more widely (and rapidly) diseminated this time.

A Historical Look at Pandemic Flu
(sorry, it was the first page that had all the pandemics on one page)

The death count for COVID-19 in the USA is higher than 2009 (18K) + 1968 (33K) + 1958 (69K) put together. And that's if there were no more deaths after today. So I think it's also glib to say "this is something we do all the time". It's equally true that this is easily the worst pandemic in the USA since 1918.*

*You did mention HIV and I think we can all agree that it's a different kind of beast than this

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I saw like 23% of Delhi residents have antibodies... No way they haven't had more deaths than the US, but CNN prefers the headlines with America #1

Considering we still don't have our hands around serology testing, I wouldn't go too far with those numbers.

I'm sure they have more but we can only go on what's reported. I'm /shocked/ that Modi would have poor testing and would try to keep numbers low like, say, other countries we know. It goes without saying that we have more cases than are reported, too - it's still hard to get tests in some places. Though I would guess they have a greater percentage that are unreported than we do, so in that regard I agree with you.

SI

[Edward64]

Interesting read on the Wolverines from the Red Dawn team that raised early warnings.

The article doesn't do a good job at detailing the timeline, it implies early Jan but lots of emails it quoted were late Jan/early Feb. Some are even late Feb where honestly the alarm was already blaring so don't think as relevant.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/corona...ry?id=72000727

By February, members of the Red Dawn chain were solidifying their view that what started as a mystery illness in China was poised to become an epidemic of historic proportions.

Lawler shared his early projections during a speaking engagement at a reception for the American Hospital Association. When he began to rattle off the numbers, he recalled, the room grew uncomfortably silent. Without a clear and aggressive response, he said he expected 96 million Americans to contract COVID-19, and as many as 480,000 would die..

[RainMaker]

My Great Aunt died. She was I believe 90 and in a nursing home. Apparently collapsed one day (guess it was a stroke) and when rushed to the hospital they said her lungs were so filled they couldn't believe she was able to do anything. Never really recovered and died.

Weird thing is the nursing home claims they didn't have any cases. Then they tested everyone and came back with 22. Not sure I believe it or how a 90 year old shows no symptoms until they collapse. Sounds like they are covering their ass but who knows.

[Kodos]

Yeah, that sounds very fishy.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Yeah, that sounds very fishy.

That's how quickly COVID-19 can spread unnoticed, that's what we have to keep in mind around the elder/weak/obese or any other characteristics that make you more vulnerable.

Four weeks ago one of two nursing homes in Maassluis had 6 cases out of nowhere, becoming 32 cases (17 inhabitants, 15 employees) after second round of testing that happened the next day. Within 10 days 6 of those 17 died, despite the immediate attempt to isolate those infected.

[Edward64]

Haven't been tracking Europe much but looks like they will face a second wave too, the severity is unknown. I assume this means they/some parts re-opened too soon or they did not follow social distancing well, similar to the US.

Europe faces down a second coronavirus pandemic wave

Clusters of cases have appeared in various parts of Europe. In Spain, some have required drastic measures. Now, epidemiologists throughout the continent agree that a second series of outbreaks is inevitable. The big question however, is whether the second wave arrives as a series of manageable ripples, often at the local and regional levels, or an all-out tsunami.

“As we move forward through time, the number of waves we will observe will be a function of how much of the economy we open up, said Gerardo Chowell, a professor of mathematical epidemiology and chair of the Department of Population Health Sciences at the Georgia State University School of Public Health. “You should be expecting these waves. But you can also be ready to control them. It’s not easy to do but it is possible.”

[sterlingice]

The problem is that we've never even finished our first wave. That implies we went down significantly. We went up then plateaued, went down a little bit, and then went up again.

SI

[Brian Swartz]

We were at over 2k deaths a day for the high plateau, then for a while were consistently at 300 or less. I think that's more than a big enough drop to say we finished the first wave. .02

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

We were at over 2k deaths a day for the high plateau, then for a while were consistently at 300 or less. I think that's more than a big enough drop to say we finished the first wave. .02

I've read a little more, it seems the problem child is Spain and possibly UK.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

We were at over 2k deaths a day for the high plateau, then for a while were consistently at 300 or less. I think that's more than a big enough drop to say we finished the first wave. .02

not wanting to be obtuse or say the general gist isn't reasonable, but the 7 day average was 480 at it's lowest (sunday and mondays were under 300, weekdays still more like 700).

The US is a weird one due to the extreme geografical distances, but many now hard hit states really didn't finish anything. They flattened that curve, but always had community transmission at a decent clip (Texas is a prime example who were always around 800-900 cases a day, on then not that much testing. Which sounds benign, but per capita is about 3-10 times more than the level that other countries lowered it to per capita on then more testing). Which then got an issue, once that simmering 'reservoire' met looser restrictions and less cautious behavior on average.
Countries in Europe 'got away' with the same loosening better because the transmission levels were lower before and also likely due to more precautions still in place, including much better test and trace effectivenes (turnaround times for tests are much better for starters).

But even here it has been creeping up in many countries now. (and sometimes rising by a lot now). I think i mentioned it before, but one key concept here is "critical mass", which comes out of epidemiology originally. It's the same concept that explains how the first few cases didn't immediately snowball and why it being present much earlier doesn't really come as a surprise. It is also the same for the flu, although with a longer trajectory due to the lower infectiousnes (flu cases go up very linear for the longest time, but then accelerate after reaching a certain threshold).

You basically have a few different factors and transmissions really only go way up after they 'align': Behavious, supression measures loosing effectiveness (like with test results taking longer and longer) etc. And the higher the level of transmission, the more law of averages ensures that enough of those go on infecting enough other to accelerate.

[whomario]

Sth a bit different, i went through my old files from uni to catalog them a bit and found this story i used for a paper in a history course: A Mother's Denial, a Daughter's Death - Los Angeles Times

It's scary, how you find the same arguments not just with Covid now, but actually throughout history.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Haven't been tracking Europe much but looks like they will face a second wave too, the severity is unknown. I assume this means they/some parts re-opened too soon or they did not follow social distancing well, similar to the US.

Europe faces down a second coronavirus pandemic wave

There is no "Europe" in this context, it's every country for itself. Many borders are still softly closed or travelling from country A to B is reason to go in 2 weeks of quarantine.

Opening up isn't the main issue, disobedience and lack of interest to care about others are key. It takes one 20 something year old who partied in the weekend to take out his grandmother and a bunch of her neighbours two weeks later.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

A Historical Look at Pandemic Flu
(sorry, it was the first page that had all the pandemics on one page)

The death count for COVID-19 in the USA is higher than 2009 (18K) + 1968 (33K) + 1958 (69K) put together. And that's if there were no more deaths after today. So I think it's also glib to say "this is something we do all the time". It's equally true that this is easily the worst pandemic in the USA since 1918.*

*You did mention HIV and I think we can all agree that it's a different kind of beast than this

SI

Oh for sure.
I am certainly not "everything is fine"...but I just pointed out that it isnt accurate to say the only pandemic in living memory. It gives fuel to the "its a hoax" crowd.

[bronconick]

Michigan's state HSAA is basically kicking the can on contact sports this fall. You can start no pad conditioning, but no final decision until the 20th. I think they're hoping the decision is made for them.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Michigan's state HSAA is basically kicking the can on contact sports this fall. You can start no pad conditioning, but no final decision until the 20th. I think they're hoping the decision is made for them.

Washington has already pushed all fall sports back to the spring and has moved baseball back 2 months to stagger the sports somewhat.

[spleen1015]

The IHSAA here in Indiana announced this morning that all fall sports were a go. Nothing is being pushed back. Girls' Golf starts Friday, everything else on Monday.

I'm left asking myself, WTF did we gain from cancelling all spring sports' seasons?

[RainMaker]

Back to over 1400 deaths in a day. Not good.

[Ksyrup]

Kentucky is starting HS football in mid-September with a 9 game season.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Back to over 1400 deaths in a day. Not good.

Yeah and yesterday was 1300 not trending in the right direction.

[Edward64]

Alright, about why can't everyone just freaking wear masks in public when close to others ...

I've been good about wearing masks in my trips to Krogers, Publix. I've worn my mask when I went inside to pickup orders. I've worn mask while getting my haircut, worn masks going into gas station store to get a coke etc.

However, all those times I've taken off my glasses.

Tonight went to daughter's HS graduation (not perfect but thought for the most part well done with social distancing etc.) and wore my glasses & mask walking into the convention center.

My freaking glasses fogged up. I don't know if its me but I can't wear my glasses with the blue cloth mask.

It was every other row, lots of space between families etc. so when we sat down I took off my mask.

Anyone else have this problem and/or solution?

[sterlingice]

Glasses and masks suck. Can confirm.

Still wear mask, though

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Glasses and masks suck. Can confirm.

Still wear mask, though

SI

Do yours fog up? Anything to help mitigate it?

[PilotMan]

I do believe that if Congress can't find the right answers on this stimulus bill that things could get really really rough in short order.

[Groundhog]

Australia looking in dangerous territory again. One state has been basically isolated with closed borders because it is out of control, and we had a total of 721 new cases yesterday, compared to 67 new cases one month ago (mostly returned travelers at that time). Majority of them are coming from that one state (Victoria) but we've had small clusters pop up here and there around my state also.