COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Any holdup or shortage in test funding is going to directly affect the hospital I work at since it's a federal facility. They also only offer lab testing there. My wife, however, was able to go to urgent care and easily get tested with no symptoms. it took her 4 days to get the results back, though, compared to the roughly 20 hours it took me to get notification.

We have work clients who are requiring tests results to allow us on site (these are medical facilites so it makes sense)
The local urgent care is "free" for 7-10 day or '$200 and we will not even attempt to file insurance' for rapid results.
Due to the nature of our needs we've been using rapid. Between me and my guys they've made about $5k off me this month..

[spleen1015]

FIL is much worse today. You can tell while talking to him on the phone that he is struggling to breathe. BIL is an EMT so, he is going to check on him in person and likely take him.

This a few days after he said he was feeling better.

[Lathum]

Ugh. Hoping for the best.

[Kodos]

I hope things turn for the better soon, Spleen.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

We have work clients who are requiring tests results to allow us on site (these are medical facilites so it makes sense)
The local urgent care is "free" for 7-10 day or '$200 and we will not even attempt to file insurance' for rapid results.
Due to the nature of our needs we've been using rapid. Between me and my guys they've made about $5k off me this month..

This still sucks and I'm surprised at how terrible testing is. How do we not have a test that can get results in hours like most other countries? Those saliva tests seem to work well.

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

This still sucks and I'm surprised at how terrible testing is. How do we not have a test that can get results in hours like most other countries? Those saliva tests seem to work well.

The rapid test results are 15-20 minutes.
What do you mean?

[Radii]

Shit Spleen, I hope things turn around fast

[Edward64]

An article explaining how Hahn misrepresented the 35% reduction in mortality.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

To understand the confusion over the 35% figure, it’s important to look at two concepts: relative risk and absolute risk.

Imagine a clinical trial to test an experimental drug, with 2,000 patients split into two groups. The first 1,000 patients don’t get the drug, and in that group 10 people die. The other group of 1,000 patients gets the drug, and five people in that group die.

Using relative risk, that’s a 50% improvement -- a tremendous number. But using absolute risk, the imaginary drug only decreases the likelihood of death from 1% to 0.5%. That means 5 more of those 1,000 people treated with the drug would live, not the 500 implied if you mistakenly use the 50% relative risk number.

The claim of a 35% mortality benefit made by Trump, Azar and Hahn uses the first measure -- relative risk. But because clinical trials of plasma therapy haven’t been completed, how many lives it actually saves -- the absolute risk improvement -- still isn’t known.

Hahn, in his tweet Monday, said he had muddled the difference. “What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction,” he said.

I get the difference but a 35% relative risk reduction is still pretty significant isn't it?

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Edward64

An article explaining how Hahn misrepresented the 35% reduction in mortality.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


I get the difference but a 35% relative risk reduction is still pretty significant isn't it?

It's crazy how long that goddamn article is, and how complicated the explanation is, without mentioning the actual figures in question. I'm just going off of memory, but I believe that the treatment resulted in reducing the mortality rate from 11 percent to 8 percent, FWIW.

[whomario]

And it might well be those patients receiving less plasma (everybody in the study got treated with Plasma !) had a lower risk anyway. They literally and by design did not test if Plasma has X or Y positive effect compared with other forms of treatment or no treatment. They tested if it was safe to use and if there might be potential positive difference in higher dosages.

Efficacy of medication is a bitch to figure out, much less prove. That's the reality. It's understandable that this is frustrating and that the only proven method is offputting (taking many, many patients* and half get the new treatment and half get nothing or, by now, a different treatment regiment where we already have a baseline). But without that literally all is guesswork. Especially when your parameter is mortality. It's like measuring the quality of a sports team purely based on the end result in a single day tournament with 3 games against random opponents, without watching the games or even looking up any statistics beyond the score. Afterwards you can say with confidence who won that day, but that is it. But you can't really judge how the same team would do over the next 100 Games.
Maybe they got the perfect opponents. Maybe they won despite playing terrible.

* Because individually you just don't know beforehand what a persons risk of dying is.

[spleen1015]

This is pretty cool.

Some big news out of the University of Arizona (@uarizona):

UA scientists & staff found a coronavirus outbreak on campus *before it happened* — and seem to have snuffed it out.

How in the world do you do that?

You use wastewater testing.

— (((Charles Fishman))) (@cfishman) August 27, 2020

[spleen1015]

So, both in laws were admitted to the hospital on Wednesday. MIL was confirmed to have COVID.

FIL was doing better last night when we talked to him, but Wed night and yesterday morning things were kind of scary. Dude has COVID, pneumonia, and a blood clot in one of his lungs. They treat the clot with blood thinners which made his temp drop to 93. He could barely say 2-3 words without having trouble breathing. They are also treating him with an antibiotic that I assume is for the pneumonia.

Talked to him around 5pm last night and he wasn't struggling to breathe and they had his temp under control. He sounded almost normal on the phone.

Today, they are both getting blood that has COVID anti-bodies.

I appreciate the well wishes. Thanks, guys.

[ISiddiqui]

Yikes that's terrifying! Glad to hear your FIL is getting better. Hope there are no more scares!

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[Kodos]

Glad things seem to be getting better. So scary.

[JPhillips]

So good to hear.

[sterlingice]

Either my Kroger is getting a lot more efficient the last month or the number of people doing grocery pick up is dwindling a lot.

I get my groceries at almost the same time every week (12:30-1 after lunch) though on variable days. Into June, you sometimes couldn't find a spot (mainly because some jackasses refused to pull all the way up in their 2-deep parking spots, but that's beside the point here). But the last month, I've been by myself or 1 of 2 cars there.

Anyone else seeing this where they are at?

SI

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Either my Kroger is getting a lot more efficient the last month or the number of people doing grocery pick up is dwindling a lot.

I get my groceries at almost the same time every week (12:30-1 after lunch) though on variable days. Into June, you sometimes couldn't find a spot (mainly because some jackasses refused to pull all the way up in their 2-deep parking spots, but that's beside the point here). But the last month, I've been by myself or 1 of 2 cars there.

Anyone else seeing this where they are at?

SI

My Walmart has actually added 5-10 more parking spots because so many people use it-almost always a lot of cars in them when driving by.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Either my Kroger is getting a lot more efficient the last month or the number of people doing grocery pick up is dwindling a lot.

I get my groceries at almost the same time every week (12:30-1 after lunch) though on variable days. Into June, you sometimes couldn't find a spot (mainly because some jackasses refused to pull all the way up in their 2-deep parking spots, but that's beside the point here). But the last month, I've been by myself or 1 of 2 cars there.

Anyone else seeing this where they are at?

SI

Our pickup has had a lot more items in stock. Fewer substitutions. Our Kroger did add like double the spots as well earlier this year, bit it seems things are well stocked when they weren't before.

[stevew]

Stock on certain items is finally picking back up to normal. Like I wanted a tow behind garden cart for the last several months and was SOL. On Monday I checked and there were like 6-8 options.

[Edward64]

Haven't had problems finding stuff at local Kroger's other than hand sanitizers (which I've found in abundance at CVS).

My wife has told me to stop buying toilet paper. We are definitely stocked up for the in-progress or forthcoming second wave!

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Anyone else seeing this where they are at?

FYI this doesn't seem to be the case in my area. The only difference I've noticed is more professional shoppers as the fallout from reduced unemployment continues.

[Ksyrup]

Seeing random weird stuff missing from Kroger and other stores in our area. For instance, slow cooker pulled pork seasoning packets. Haven't seen one in over a month. Check every time we go to a grocery store. Coke Zero and all of their flavors have been missing for months. Windex - can't find it anywhere. Things like that.

[Edward64]

I'm not sure what this data tells. Would have been nice if there were % also. With Influenza and pneumonia listed as #1, I guess that's why there is a push to get people to get flu shots this year.

The CDC listed the following as the top conditions contributing to deaths involving coronavirus disease:

Influenza and pneumonia
Respiratory failure
Hypertensive disease
Diabetes
Vascular and unspecified dementia
Cardiac Arrest
Heart failure
Renal failure
Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events
Other medical conditions

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

The table
https://fox8.com/wp-content/uploads/...esize=768,1347

[Edward64]

Looks like India is in a world of hurt. There's likely more and its under reported (just like other countries). Wonder what the "excess deaths" are as compared to 2019 equivalent months.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-53969118

The nation, the world's third-most infected, on Sunday reported 78,761 new cases in 24 hours, passing the number posted in the US on 17 July.

The rise comes as the government continues to lift restrictions to try to boost an economy that lost millions of jobs when the virus hit in March.
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Cardiology doctor, Manoj Kumar, told Reuters: "It is the largest one-day surge in cases worldwide and the reason behind this - because the pandemic is spreading in the rural areas."

In the initial stages of Covid-19, India appeared to be doing fairly well, imposing a strict lockdown, but the virus then hit megacities like Mumbai and Delhi, before surging in smaller cities and rural areas.

Despite the increase, the government has pressed ahead with easing restrictions.

Gatherings of up to 100 people will be allowed at cultural, entertainment and sports events from next month, with face mask and social distancing measures.

Underground train networks will also start to reopen in big cities.

[Edward64]

Article also talked about the potential influence on decision making. Regardless, I think its a good thing to do especially with the comment below about 150 test cases.

Wouldn't want to be in the first batch and will wait for 4-6 weeks I think to see if any negative reactions pop up.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/healt...eua/index.html

"Our emergency use authorisation is not the same as a full approval," he said. "The legal, medical and scientific standard for that is that the benefit outweighs the risk in a public health emergency."

Two Covid-19 vaccines are currently in Phase 3 trials in the United States -- those made by Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech -- and two more are expected to begin Phase 3 trials by mid-September. Vaccine makers are seeking to enroll at least 30,000 volunteers so they can tell whether the vaccine is really safe and protects people from infection.

Both already in advanced-stage trials in the United States have enrolled more than half the number of participants needed, US health officials said during a call with reporters on Friday about Operation Warp Speed.

During the call, the health officials said there could be enough data even before 30,000 people are enrolled in a trial, but Operation Warp Speed officials aren't able to see the data yet.

"There is a thing called a Data Safety Monitoring Board, an independent body that is assigned to each clinical trial," Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for policy at the US Department of Health Human Services, said during the briefing.

"We have no insight into the data until the DSMB says we can look at it. They can come back and say, 'This is not a good vaccine.' They could come back before we even have 30,000 folks enrolled and say 'We have enough. This looks great.' "

Adverse reactions to the vaccine could also trigger the DSMB to stop the trial.

"What we are really looking for is cases -- the number of positive cases from both the placebo and the vaccine group," Mango said.

"Once we get to 150 or so, statistically that is significant regardless of how many enrollees we have in the trial," he added.

"That may be surprising to some, but really the number of events that have to occur ... is relatively small," US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield added during the call.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Seeing random weird stuff missing from Kroger and other stores in our area. For instance, slow cooker pulled pork seasoning packets. Haven't seen one in over a month. Check every time we go to a grocery store. Coke Zero and all of their flavors have been missing for months. Windex - can't find it anywhere. Things like that.

Pepsi Zero has been missing around here but no issues on Coke Zero. My theory on that is that your guy that delivers either Coke or Pepsi delivers either a tiny bit of Zero or none at all and absolutely fills the shelves with the top couple of sellers. I don't know that it's a real shortage but a delivery choice based on what your store sells. If you complain to the store, you might have a shot at getting it fixed.

[Ksyrup]

Well there are signs all over the shelves about Coke shortages, and it's not just Kroger. Meijer/Target haven't had any either.

In the last 2 weeks, a bit more Zero is showing up along with Zero Cherry Vanilla. Still no Zero Cherry, Orange Vanilla or Fresca. And very little diet Dr. Pepper, no creme soda of any kind.

[Butter]

OK, well that's weird then.

[Ksyrup]

I think the same is happening with Pepsi Zero but I don't drink Pepsi so I haven't paid much attention.

[Butter]

We actually prefer Pepsi Zero to Coke Zero, but would prefer Coke to Pepsi if I drank full sugar soft drinks. I have full sugar Coke maybe 4 times a year or something like that.

[spleen1015]

I appreciate the well wishes from everyone. Thanks a ton you guys.

My in-laws went home yesterday. FIL says everything changed about an hour after he started getting the blood therapy. He felt 100 times better.

I don't know if this sort of thing works for everyone, but it is refreshing to hear that they have some therapies that help with this thing.

[Kodos]

Great news!

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

My in-laws went home yesterday. FIL says everything changed about an hour after he started getting the blood therapy. He felt 100 times better.

I don't know if this sort of thing works for everyone, but it is refreshing to hear that they have some therapies that help with this thing.

One of the possible silver linings to this horrible horrible disease is that we are learning a lot about therapies and vaccines and the like.

It would be great if, after COVID-19 is under control, we end up being able to treat and prevent future diseases better than we would otherwise because of the crash course we had to take due to COVID-19.

[Thomkal]

Yay Spleen!, great news about the therapy helping

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Wonder what the "excess deaths" are as compared to 2019 equivalent months.

Globally we aren't at the point of tracking that effectively. Based on what's happened in other large cities around the world though, by year's end excess mortality will likely be in the low tens of millions.

[RainMaker]

Excess deaths are at 214,000 this year which is sort of right in line with the data. Especially when you figure we missed a bunch early on due to testing.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by KSyrup

Well there are signs all over the shelves about Coke shortages, and it's not just Kroger. Meijer/Target haven't had any either.

In the last 2 weeks, a bit more Zero is showing up along with Zero Cherry Vanilla. Still no Zero Cherry, Orange Vanilla or Fresca. And very little diet Dr. Pepper, no creme soda of any kind.

I can't say anything that specifically other than this seems to be regional to a degree - different areas have different relative levels of demand and so forth. Dr. Pepper for example has been fine where I am, but some of the Zero products have been gone for extended stretches. Fresca waved bye for a while, but it is now sometimes back.

Paper towel has replaced the original outage of toilet paper for reasons I can't decipher.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Excess deaths are at 214,000 this year which is sort of right in line with the data. Especially when you figure we missed a bunch early on due to testing.

Do you have a link for this. Want to send to a friend who is trending towards the hoax camp. He plays drums in one of the biggest cover bands in the east coast so his livelihood has really taken a hit basically having no gigs over the summer, so I get his frustrations. Would like some data to show him.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I can't say anything that specifically other than this seems to be regional to a degree - different areas have different relative levels of demand and so forth. Dr. Pepper for example has been fine where I am, but some of the Zero products have been gone for extended stretches. Fresca waved bye for a while, but it is now sometimes back.

Paper towel has replaced the original outage of toilet paper for reasons I can't decipher.

I still haven't seen an Lysol/Clorox wipes on the shelves since like April, so I've been using bleach spray and paper towels for kitchen disinfectant. I can't imagine I'm the only one...so that maybe explains the paper towel shortage.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Drake

I still haven't seen an Lysol/Clorox wipes on the shelves since like April, so I've been using bleach spray and paper towels for kitchen disinfectant. I can't imagine I'm the only one...so that maybe explains the paper towel shortage.

And find it anywhere and I really want to have some to send to school.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by Lathum

And find it anywhere and I really want to have some to send to school.

I still owe my 4th grader's teacher the 3 containers of wipes I was supposed to send on the first day of school.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Drake

I still haven't seen an Lysol/Clorox wipes on the shelves since like April, so I've been using bleach spray and paper towels for kitchen disinfectant. I can't imagine I'm the only one...so that maybe explains the paper towel shortage.

It'll occasionally show up for ship to home on the Kroger app. But, it's pretty darn rare.

SI

[Ksyrup]

My wife was just complaining that she can't find Lysol wipes, bathroom scrubber, or Windex. We checked 4 stores this weekend, nothing. Wipes was a biggie early on but things seem to be getting worse, not better.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I can't say anything that specifically other than this seems to be regional to a degree - different areas have different relative levels of demand and so forth. Dr. Pepper for example has been fine where I am, but some of the Zero products have been gone for extended stretches. Fresca waved bye for a while, but it is now sometimes back.

Paper towel has replaced the original outage of toilet paper for reasons I can't decipher.

No problems with any Coke & Pepsi products in Atlanta suburbia (no surprise I guess), don't look for Fresca so can't say.

Plenty of Charmin and Bounty paper products also.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I appreciate the well wishes from everyone. Thanks a ton you guys.

My in-laws went home yesterday. FIL says everything changed about an hour after he started getting the blood therapy. He felt 100 times better.

I don't know if this sort of thing works for everyone, but it is refreshing to hear that they have some therapies that help with this thing.

Glad he is trending upward.

If you don't mind telling us, what is the "blood therapy"?

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Glad he is trending upward.

If you don't mind telling us, what is the "blood therapy"?

They gave my MIL 2 pints of blood with COVID anti-bodies and my FIL 3 pints.

[Brian Swartz]

On the wipes, there was a thing from Lysol or Clorox saying they didn't expect to be stocked back to normal levels until at least early next year. That one is pretty consistent I think. Isopropyl alcohol is another, for similar reasons.

[JPhillips]

Happy for your in-laws spleen. Glad things turned around.

[Edward64]

News on the rapid test. Not perfect or as accurate as the other test but still pretty good.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...?mod=home-page

On Aug. 26, the Food and Drug Administration granted an Emergency Use Authorization to a new rapid antigen test for COVID-19 called the BinaxNOW test.

I study public health policy to combat infectious disease epidemics. Testing is one of the most powerful tools available to fight the spread of COVID-19. The new test is inexpensive, rapid and easy to use. It will massively scale up access to testing, but hurdles remain in achieving widespread, frequent COVID-19 testing.

What type of test is BinaxNOW?

The credit-card-sized test is an antigen test that detects a specific viral protein from SARS-CoV-2. It costs $5 and doesn’t require a lab or a machine for processing.

Performing the test is simple. A health-care worker or technician would use a swab to collect a sample from less than 1 inch inside the nostril. They would then combine the sample with a few drops of chemicals inside the test card. Within 15 minutes, the test strip would show a positive or negative result. The test is also paired with an app that produces a digital code that can be scanned to show proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test.
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Abbott, the health technology company ABT, -3.07% that produces the test, reports that when patients had symptoms the test was in agreement with PCR testing for 97.1% for COVID-19 positive cases and 98.5% for COVID-19 negative cases. This is high enough for diagnostic settings where accuracy is critical.

However, the true accuracy could be lower because the performance testing group was only 102 people and the accuracy hasn’t been validated by the FDA as part of the full approval process. There will inevitably be some false negatives and false positives with the BinaxNOW test since accuracy isn’t 100%, but the FDA will monitor the data to make sure the test meets the reported accuracy.

[sterlingice]

I'd love the idea, but, c'mon:

However, the true accuracy could be lower because the performance testing group was only 102 people and the accuracy hasn’t been validated by the FDA as part of the full approval process. There will inevitably be some false negatives and false positives with the BinaxNOW test since accuracy isn’t 100%, but the FDA will monitor the data to make sure the test meets the reported accuracy.

A test group of 102?!? Like, that's one large hospital's worth of COVID patients. Could we try something a little more rigorous before running it to market?

I will be shocked(!) when it turns out it's more like 85% accurate, which is kindof a big damn deal.



SI