WW CXXVI: Wolves in Asgard - Game Over (Result in Post 2538)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So I'm going to classify people, including using Racer's post in 591, the following ways:

Strong belief: Lathum, bhlloy, Thomkal, Telle
Weak belief: Autumn, j23, Racer
Disbelief: Barkeep, Narcizo, mau

You might disagree with my strong belief people, but if you say I'll believe them until I have evidence saying not to, that is, in effect, really believing them.

Yeah, I guess we just disagree there. In my opinion most reveals in Werewolf are met with much less skepticism.

[Narcizo]

I certainly hope people aren't going to base vote analysis on the assumption that Danny is a villager. I'll try not to let my belief that his pants are on fire influence me too much either. I'm basically sitting with mau on the 75/25 split but there is an upside to having a powerful villager role being strongly questioned if he is telling the truth.

I was feeling bad about Barkeep but his exchange with Danny makes me feel a bit more comfortable about him whether Danny is on the level or not. Going to look at the vote table to see if something new suddenly springs out.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Telle

And what's the point of all this analysis of who believes what regarding Danny, Barkeep?

I think one person might have misread things and thought most people trusted Danny at this point.

[Narcizo]

Goodness, I'm not used to the conversation zooming along so quickly.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Frankly, if Danny turns out to be a wolf I would be looking at Barkeep next, his insistence on hammering Danny over this feels a bit contrived.

BK, you may be 100% right that this is a fake reveal. I think most people have conceded that's a possibility. Are you suggesting we vote Danny today? I'm not sure where you're going with all this.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I certainly hope people aren't going to base vote analysis on the assumption that Danny is a villager. I'll try not to let my belief that his pants are on fire influence me too much either. I'm basically sitting with mau on the 75/25 split but there is an upside to having a powerful villager role being strongly questioned if he is telling the truth.

I was feeling bad about Barkeep but his exchange with Danny makes me feel a bit more comfortable about him whether Danny is on the level or not. Going to look at the vote table to see if something new suddenly springs out.

Honestly, I think I'd be more with Autumn on this one.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Racer

I think one person might have misread things and thought most people trusted Danny at this point.

To be fair, It seem my opinion has been left out in this. I trust myself completely.

[Narcizo]

Vote ntndeacon

If in doubt vote NTN! That's what I always say.

Really NTN's been around - I find it suspicious that he would vote for Danny, even if it was a joke vote. Could be he didn't expect Danny to get votes and wanted some wolf on wolf action or he wanted to get rid of a good villager.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Danny

To be fair, It seem my opinion has been left out in this. I trust myself completely.

Of course.

[Racer]

Vote J23

Going with a EF voter here. I'd like to know if Chubby is just going on hunch that J23 is good or if there is more to it. Not looking for Chubby to reveal more then that. Chose J23 among the EF voters because he's been more quiet then radar then the other ones.

[Zinto]

As much as I am not sure on Danny right now the best move in to not vote for him since taking a risk and voting for someone who claims a role is not a strong move.

Unvote Danny

[Zinto]

I am going to go back and look at EF voters now. It seems like as good a place as any to pick someone to vote for.

Also picking apart Barkeep because he is opinionated and rubs people the wrong way is not the best idea. He did so the last game and was a villager. I am not saying he is not a wolf but his interaction with Danny wouldn't make me jump up and claim he was one.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Telle

And what's the point of all this analysis of who believes what regarding Danny, Barkeep?

Whether today or in a future day Danny's guilt/innocence will be important. Having information collected at that point is often useful.

[Telle]

Well we have eight players with a single vote. It's 1:30pm Est. Am I allowed to vote Autumn now?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This is why I passed my item to him, I think it could help against a wolf attack.

I also passed it to him prior to him putting on a tinfoil hat and going crazy on me.

Found a little time to comment here:

Okay so now you then feel that was a mistake and he's a wolf?

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Whether today or in a future day Danny's guilt/innocence will be important. Having information collected at that point is often useful.

The only thing is if Danny ends up being a wolf, I have to doubt a wolf is going to come out and support his reveal. I honestly doubt anyone is going to completely buy his reveal so I am sure in general most people's reactions are going to be the same.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Telle

Well we have eight players with a single vote. It's 1:30pm Est. Am I allowed to vote Autumn now?

Would you post your vote count so I have a clue to where we are at this point?

[Telle]

Votes as of post # 616:

1 - Danny - Barkeep (499)
1 - jeheinz - Danny (492)
1 - Chubby - Lathum (501)
1 - Darth Vilus - Autumn (533)
1 - Racer - jeheinz (535)
1 - Lathum - EagleFan (583)
1 - ntndeacon - Narcizo (607)
1 - J23 - Racer (609)

[Danny]

haha

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by mckerney

This doesn't clear my suspicion of Chubby for me without knowing the nature of the item. If MrBug is correct that his passing of an item to dubb may have resulted in his death then it's reasonable to think there may be an item that will kill a wolf character if it's passed to them. Lathum could have been trying for a kill if he passed something to Chubby.

I completely agree with you here, about not clearing either of them since we have no proof that an item was passed here. I was just was trying to look at it from both sides here. But if that's the case, the item didn't kill Chubby so then he isn't a wolf. If we are to believe your theory here which is certainly plausible. And if we believe it, its likely neither are wolves. But I'm not ready to go that far yet with no knowledge of the item in question.

[Zinto]

Thanks Telle!

Well I do not want to spread the vote any further and J23 and Chubby fits my category of someone who voted for Eagle. I am not sure at all about J23 but Chubby seems like a villager who made a day one mistake.

Vote J23

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Racer

Vote J23

Going with a EF voter here. I'd like to know if Chubby is just going on hunch that J23 is good or if there is more to it. Not looking for Chubby to reveal more then that. Chose J23 among the EF voters because he's been more quiet then radar then the other ones.

I don't think J23 is someone I will consider voting for. If Chubby is a wolf he probably threw out the name of a villager, if he's not I don't think it is much to go on.

[Danny]

I'm almost certain going to vote for someone who voted me day 1. I understand skepticism from others as my reveal isn't given the greatest confidence at this point, but from my point of view. I figure there has to be at least one, and maybe two wolves out of the five uncleared people on me.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So I'm going to classify people, including using Racer's post in 591, the following ways:

Strong belief: Lathum, bhlloy, Thomkal, Telle
Weak belief: Autumn, j23, Racer
Disbelief: Barkeep, Narcizo, mau

You might disagree with my strong belief people, but if you say I'll believe them until I have evidence saying not to, that is, in effect, really believing them.

I would not classify myself as strong belief. My other post about it after that one I mentioned how Danny's reveal was convenient, but right now I believe him more than disbelieve him. Maybe Middle Belief? The thing is Danny has locked himself in here. The real Thor will reveal eventually, the wolves will try a fake reveal to try to get him out, or the real Thor will die before revealing and Danny will be lynched the next day (hopefully). So I think this will clear itself up on its own over the next day or two rather than trying to figure it out now and potentially lynching Thor.

[jeheinz72]

My take on the Danny "issue" is this, it's too big of a stake to vote him out today. If he's who he says he is, we just effed ourselves into an even deeper hole.

If he's not, that will flesh itself out. Thor *has* to be in this game. So there is a Thor out there who knows he's lying, I'd rather defer to that player who while we don't know their identity, is a known-good.

Despite his vote for me, I will not be voting for Danny today.

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'm almost certain going to vote for someone who voted me day 1. I understand skepticism from others as my reveal isn't given the greatest confidence at this point, but from my point of view. I figure there has to be at least one, and maybe two wolves out of the five uncleared people on me.

I understand your thinking but I have to doubt there are two wolves on you. With so many places to hide a vote, if you ended up being a villager who got lynched on day one I am sure people would jump all over your voters. Yes there is almost a hundred percent chance there is one on you but I have to doubt two.

[jeheinz72]

To look at it another way, if Danny is telling the truth, then he is likely a cookie-cutter BG, one who can't protect the same person two nights in a row. I'll be much more worried about Danny after 2 more nights have passed.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Danny

I'm almost certain going to vote for someone who voted me day 1. I understand skepticism from others as my reveal isn't given the greatest confidence at this point, but from my point of view. I figure there has to be at least one, and maybe two wolves out of the five uncleared people on me.

Yeah I commented on this earlier, I don't get the logic of you thinking there is all that great of a shot of 2+

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I understand your thinking but I have to doubt there are two wolves on you. With so many places to hide a vote, if you ended up being a villager who got lynched on day one I am sure people would jump all over your voters. Yes there is almost a hundred percent chance there is one on you but I have to doubt two.

And to add to that thinking.. I've said in a past game that in any random group of five players there's bound to be a wolf. But searching through groupings like that isn't really the most efficient means of finding a wolf.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

But if that's the case, the item didn't kill Chubby so then he isn't a wolf.

Not necessarily. There could be an item that will only kill a certain wolf role if passed to them, though do nothing to the other wolves.

If we are to believe your theory here which is certainly plausible. And if we believe it, its likely neither are wolves. But I'm not ready to go that far yet with no knowledge of the item in question.

Agreed, my original point was that I didn't want to assume to much about them without knowing about the item. The post Lathum made just before mine that I didn't see until after I posted indicates he thought the item would protect a villager. Even with that info I don't think there's a lot to go on alone, Lathum could be wrong about Chubby or he could be a wolf trying to gain trust or not being completely honest what he thought the item would do.

[Barkeep49]

If we, for the moment, assume Danny is bad, presumably the wolves would want to lynch someone other than him. The vote history just doesn't suggest a whole lot of movement to make that happen though. So I'm not sure where to go that's off Danny.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I don't think J23 is someone I will consider voting for. If Chubby is a wolf he probably threw out the name of a villager, if he's not I don't think it is much to go on.

I agree. I think J23 is a poor choice. I think if Chubby is a wolf he likely threw out a villager's name. If he's a villager he likely threw out a villager's name (as it would mean he had some kind of role/info on j23).

[Racer]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I don't think J23 is someone I will consider voting for. If Chubby is a wolf he probably threw out the name of a villager, if he's not I don't think it is much to go on.

Yeah. I don't have much of a feel for Chubby one way or the other but if Chubby is bad I'd agree with you J23 is probably good. I was more voting for him because of the EF voters he's been very quiet. The same can be true for Hoops but in the games I've played in he's been a very good villager. I think he said he wouldn't be very active in this game (which has no impact on whether he's a villager or a wolf) but I decided to vote for J23 instead just in case Hoops ends up being able to be active.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

To look at it another way, if Danny is telling the truth, then he is likely a cookie-cutter BG, one who can't protect the same person two nights in a row. I'll be much more worried about Danny after 2 more nights have passed.

If Danny is telling the truth I think there are even more limitations beyond the can't protect 2 nights in a row. I get this both from his statements regarding his role, and also from commonsense of his having power beyond the BG. My guess is he's pretty tightly constrained in who he can protect (maybe only can protect each person once during the game?)

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree. I think J23 is a poor choice. I think if Chubby is a wolf he likely threw out a villager's name. If he's a villager he likely threw out a villager's name (as it would mean he had some kind of role/info on j23).

See, that's the thing. I'd like to get Chubby's response here. If it's just Chubby's hunch, then J23 is a fine vote. If it's more then that, then either Chubby's bad or he has a role (either of which point to J23 being good).

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

If Danny is telling the truth I think there are even more limitations beyond the can't protect 2 nights in a row. I get this both from his statements regarding his role, and also from commonsense of his having power beyond the BG. My guess is he's pretty tightly constrained in who he can protect (maybe only can protect each person once during the game?)

You're likely right. I guess I meant it more as the reverse, that surely with a lynch-avoid power, he is at best can't protect 2 nights in a row. Ergo, the wolves will get him soon, ergo I don't think he's best dealt with today.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Okay so now you then feel that was a mistake and he's a wolf?

I thik when I add up the evidence I feel ok voting him. He was a late Danny voter, he is claiming I said I was the duke even though it is obvious to others I never said that, then voting me anyway even though the duke is almost always a villager role.

also factor in we learn something from finding out his alligence I think it is a good place to look.

[Danny]

Regarding Chubby, I think he was just making a completely non factual based comment regarding J23. From my abilities and the way the game started along with the one deadline, I don't think there are any abilities that can be used "in real time" that would have given Chubby the opportunity to know anything about J23 before the deadline. That said, if CHubby is a wolf, I agree that J23 is a likely villager.

[Darth Vilus]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think it's pretty likely there's a wolf on Chubby as well, that's a safe spot to hide, no worry about lynching a villager, but enough votes on him that it's not a throwaway. I feel better about Lathum and Mauboy than the other two, and have heard least from Darth, who tends to just disappear unless prodded.

Prod.

vote darth vilus

Funny, I'm gonna be out all day because of work, sorry guys. Tomorrow and Friday will be much better though for my availability.

I'm like 50/50 on the Danny reveal, with that many roles in the game it's possible we had balder vs thor. But it is also the smart wolf play since danny was most likely gonna die today. if there's a real thor out there and Danny is lying obviously don't reveal anything, doesn't help anyone.

And i deflect that prod Autumn!

[JAG]

Day 2 Voting as of Post 638:

J23 2 - Racer (609), Zinto (620)
Lathum 2 - Chubby (403), EagleFan (583)
Jeheinz72 1 - Danny (492)
Danny 1 - Barkeep49 (499)
Chubby 1 - Lathum (501)
Darth Vilus 1 - Autumn (533)
Racer 1 - jeheinz72 (535)
ntndeacon 1 - Narcizo (607)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Lathum could be wrong about Chubby or he could be a wolf trying to gain trust or not being completely honest what he thought the item would do.

You can choose to believe me or not, but there is no way I am passing an item to a villager as a wolf this early in the game unless passing between wolves is not allowed.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Danny

Regarding Chubby, I think he was just making a completely non factual based comment regarding J23. From my abilities and the way the game started along with the one deadline, I don't think there are any abilities that can be used "in real time" that would have given Chubby the opportunity to know anything about J23 before the deadline. That said, if CHubby is a wolf, I agree that J23 is a likely villager.

I agree that if Chubby a villager J23 was completely guess his part that he sold a bit hard, so voting J23 based on that is as good as randomly choosing someone to vote for at this point.

[bhlloy]

Is there a reason I've missed that we're giving Autumn a pass today? If we're looking at EF voters then I would have thought we're concentrating on him or J23 but I haven't heard his name mentioned much if at all.

[Zinto]

I believe Telle want to vote for Autumn . I would have considered Autumn if there where not so many people with votes so far and I always like to get down to three or four people as soon as possible so that when people disappear there votes have a better chance of mattering.

[Darth Vilus]

Have to vote really quick since I have to get ready and head out.

Vote Chubby

I'll give Danny the benfit of the doubt for now. Do we have any way of knowing that Chubby really can find out info or if he was just talking? With Odin gone I feel ok about my vote

[J23]

Sorry Racer, but I'm often a lot less vocal than these other post-whoores.

I put my vote on EF at a time when we had 4 good villager players in a tie and noone seemed to really want to break the deadlock. I picked who I had a more odd "feeling" about on day1 and put my vote out there. I don't think that a wolf picks that spot necessarily to put their vote out there when I had been around most of the day and had every opportunity to put out a throw away vote.

As for the Chubby connection others are bringing up. I'm completely clueless. I assure you I'm a good guy (like everyone else will claim), but have no idea how Chubby would know that or if his statement yesterday was just a poorly worded hunch/feeling.

[Darth Vilus]

later people, see you guys after work

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You can choose to believe me or not, but there is no way I am passing an item to a villager as a wolf this early in the game unless passing between wolves is not allowed.

I don't think you'd do that if it was a beneficial item, and although the descriptions of items on page one don't seem to indicate it I'm leaving open the possibility there are items which have negative effects on the holder.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Regarding Chubby, I think he was just making a completely non factual based comment regarding J23. From my abilities and the way the game started along with the one deadline, I don't think there are any abilities that can be used "in real time" that would have given Chubby the opportunity to know anything about J23 before the deadline. That said, if CHubby is a wolf, I agree that J23 is a likely villager.

I agree Chubby wouldn't have had time to use any powers. This doesn't mean he didn't have starting information suggesting J23 was good.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I think a case can be made that votes were moved to save Chubby. I think a case can be made that we find out information about J23 by killing Chubby. Ergo perhaps we should pull the trigger.

Vote Chubby

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok I think a case can be made that votes were moved to save Chubby. I think a case can be made that we find out information about J23 by killing Chubby. Ergo perhaps we should pull the trigger.

Vote Chubby

You still have a vote on Danny from post #499.