COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[molson]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would say 100% you should go to the doctor

FWIW, they're telling us here to call into an urgent care clinic rather than go in anywhere (unless it's an emergency).

But ya, any symptoms like that should be reported so they can have an accounting of what's going on in the area. They have detailed plans to deal with every phone call like that and can direct everybody what they should do.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by revrew

2. California just announced 3 TSA workers tested positive. That, to me, seems like the last straw. This thing isn't contained and can't be, no matter how much stuff we cancel. So, what good are we really doing by cancelling flights and events and stuff?

THAT'S the last straw?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by molson

FWIW, they're telling us here to call into an urgent care clinic rather than go in anywhere (unless it's an emergency).

But ya, any symptoms like that should be reported so they can have an accounting of what's going on in the area. They have detailed plans to deal with every phone call like that and can direct everybody what they should do.

yeah, I guess what I meant is 100% consult a health care official.

[PilotMan]

Was talking with our old friend sterlingice this morning. Both he and his wife work at a hospital and have family who are doctors. He was trying to not sound like a conspiracy theorist, but the numbers tell the story.



As the current rate of 30% growth per day we'll be over 240k cases by the first weekend in April. Also, since we're grossly underestimating the spread of the disease by 10 to 20 times, which has been estimated, then we could be at 2-4 million infected by that same weekend. The current hospitalization rate of 10% with that number infected basically drowns the system as all ICU beds are taken before any other 'normal expected' emergencies show up.



Hospitals are treating people who have it already. We're seeing large groups of first responders and nursing home employees with 'symptoms' but without actual tests we really don't know the actual stretch of the illness.

[JPhillips]

I was reading that there's a major global shortage of RNA separating kits, so even when there's a Covid test, most labs can't process them.

[PilotMan]

Highlighted from Open letter to the US government, by a computer scientist professor from Purdue University : China_Flu


The Paths Ahead.

Path A. The US government takes decisive and proactive actions today and leads all countries fighting the potential devastation by COVID-19 in a coordinated effort to enforce aggressive social distancing measures to contain the spread. Looking at situations in China, this should be able to contain the virus in 4 to 6 weeks. Life should be able to return to normal by June or July. Economy should be able to quickly recover in a few months after that. Total number of cases in the US may be in the tens of thousands, with hundreds of deaths. There will be economic and other kinds of pains and suffering, but these are unavoidable.
Path B. Continue the current course of action. In no more than two weeks (by Mar 22), the number of confirmed cases will top 10 thousands. Health care systems in states starting with Washington, California, New York will be strained like Northern Italy today. US government may have to adopt drastic social distancing measures similar to locking down entire cities.

• The best case scenario is that the spreading can still be contained by these measures to be about 10 to 50 times the size as under Path A, i.e., with hundreds of thousands or a few millions of people infected, and thousands or more deaths. It will take longer for the lockdown effort to be effective because of the scale of spreading. It may be August or September before life can return to normal. And the economic damage will be a lot higher than Path A.
• Worst-case scenario is that spreading cannot be contained, and we are looking at situations predicted by some experts, with up to 70% of the population infected. Local communities will still try any conceivable containment method. Economic and social activities will be greatly disrupted. At least 20% of the population over the age of 70, as well as significant fractions of other age groups, will die while waiting for medical care, with family members desperately looking on. The situation looks to be at least as bad as the Spanish flu. We may be looking at the worst humanity and economic disaster since World War 2. The remaining hope after the devastation is that either virus mutates to a milder form, or effective vaccines can be developed before the next wave hits.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You can be contagious and infected for up to 2 weeks with no symptoms

This is the big thing, and why any quarantines will not actually work, by the time you know you have something or are fighting something, you've already been unknowingly exposing people to it.

Heck, as I posted above, I've been sick for weeks (in hindsight). Outside of a 3 day window, I would classify this as nothing more than a cold. With those three days, maybe I had the flu. Could I have something worse? Maybe. Could I have exposed many around me? Certainly.

Here's the other puzzling aspect, my boss, my wife and kids, none of them have gotten sick. Friends I have interacted with in that time, no one else has gotten sick. The only other one that has been sick, is the guy I am shadowing, and we came down with the heavier symptoms at roughly the same time (he has me by a few days here, his worst was the weekend before I got worse, we started exhibiting symptoms at the same time).

For the record, seeing the doctor tomorrow. The fact I have to fly to Vancouver for more training Sunday was the determining factor, I do not want to deal with anything lingering especially if I have a secondary infection.

[spleen1015]

Quarantines will work if they last long enough.

[JPhillips]

Quarantines are working in China, SK, and Japan. Saying there's nothing we can do is just simply ignoring the evidence of what works.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Live look into NY right now.............

What's the movie? Have to watch it.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Quarantines are working in China, SK, and Japan. Saying there's nothing we can do is just simply ignoring the evidence of what works.

Agreed, quarantines are normally the best defense against any infectious disease, but if the person is spreading the virus before any symptoms are evident who goes in to quarantine? Or, is the entire country supposed to go into quarantine? What will the effect of that be?

For something like the measles, ebola, or some other infectious disease, it is easy to quarantine. You show signs of the virus, in you go. For something like this, not so much, because you are infecting people before you get sick or exhibit symptoms. Also, in cases of young people, you might never know you are sick (similar to West Nile Virus).

Also, numbers for Japan are thought to be several times higher than officially reported for this very reason. In China, due to the government, I can see where it would be easier to institute a mandatory quarantine.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

What's the movie? Have to watch it.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Agreed, quarantines are normally the best defense against any infectious disease, but if the person is spreading the virus before any symptoms are evident who goes in to quarantine? Or, is the entire country supposed to go into quarantine? What will the effect of that be?

For something like the measles, ebola, or some other infectious disease, it is easy to quarantine. You show signs of the virus, in you go. For something like this, not so much, because you are infecting people before you get sick or exhibit symptoms. Also, in cases of young people, you might never know you are sick (similar to West Nile Virus).

Also, numbers for Japan are thought to be several times higher than officially reported for this very reason. In China, due to the government, I can see where it would be easier to institute a mandatory quarantine.

That's the point of better hygiene and social distancing. So far Western countries haven't been willing to go far enough in limiting contact and we're paying the price.

[ISiddiqui]

Ben Cohen on Twitter: ""We would recommend that there not be large crowds," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, the most respected public health official in the United States. "If that means not having any people in the audience when the NBA plays, so be it.""

Wow. That's Dr. Fauci, head of the NIH suggesting playing sporting events in the US without crowds.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

The current hospitalization rate of 10% with that number infected basically drowns the system as all ICU beds are taken before any other 'normal expected' emergencies show up.

This is quite consistent with the comments that our pulmonologist friend was making at dinner Sunday night.

[Kodos]

W.H.O. officially declares this a pandemic.

[Warhammer]

Just got an email from the doctor's office wanting to know if I have been travelling in the past 4 weeks...

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

W.H.O. officially declares this a pandemic.

About 2-3 weeks late.

[Lathum]

Fox News is so slimy.

I threw it on in the car and they had some woman on who was an MD. She stated very emphatically the economic impact is way worse than the virus itself, and she is relieved someone with the strong economic track record of Trump is managing that aspect and letting the medical experts handle the virus.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Oh yeah, other complicating factor, new insurance kicked in on 3-1, still don't have my insurance cards, insurance company and work are point at each other...

Don't have the cards yet, but is it certain that you do actually have coverage? or is a potential snafu there and that's part of what insurance/employer are still messing with?

Some doc offices will probably freak out if there's no card, but if you've got coverage you should be able to get your Member Id and Group Number and just give those to the front office staff and be fine.

[Lathum]

The CBI Tournament is Cancelled | Crossing Broad

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

Agreed, quarantines are normally the best defense against any infectious disease, but if the person is spreading the virus before any symptoms are evident who goes in to quarantine? Or, is the entire country supposed to go into quarantine? What will the effect of that be?

For something like the measles, ebola, or some other infectious disease, it is easy to quarantine. You show signs of the virus, in you go. For something like this, not so much, because you are infecting people before you get sick or exhibit symptoms. Also, in cases of young people, you might never know you are sick (similar to West Nile Virus).

Also, numbers for Japan are thought to be several times higher than officially reported for this very reason. In China, due to the government, I can see where it would be easier to institute a mandatory quarantine.

That's why you test as many people as you can. South Korea didn't just quarantine those with symptoms, they tested as many people as they could get their hands on. Notified them and got them away from everyone else.

South Korea is the standard for how this should be handled. Their numbers are now dropping and their death rate has been really low in contrast to the world.

[RainMaker]

Drive-thru testing that was so successful in SK would cut into profit margins here too much.

Robert Redfield, CDC Director, said there are no plans to set up drive through #COVID19 test centres because "We're tryinjg to maintain the relationship between individuals and their healthcare providers."

— Julian Borger (@julianborger) March 11, 2020

[Lathum]

Just decided to cancel out Cancun trip. I wasn't all that excited about it but my wife didn't want to let her friend down. We were all going for her friends 50th birthday and apparently we were the last couple to stay on board.

Main reason is my MIL had a heart transplant 11 years ago and is already in less than ideal health. A full week of my kids staying with them, and potentially more should we get quarantined, could expose her and it just isn't worth the risk.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Fox News is so slimy.

I threw it on in the car and they had some woman on who was an MD. She stated very emphatically the economic impact is way worse than the virus itself, and she is relieved someone with the strong economic track record of Trump is managing that aspect and letting the medical experts handle the virus.

Yea this shit worries me. Fort Wayne voted 65/35 for Trump and my interactions with actual people here have been pretty bad pretty frequently, lots of very stereotypical Trump supporters. Neighbor has radios in every room of her house so she won't miss a minute of Rush or Hannity or whoever, as an example. At least 3 other neighbors are the same way and are older than me. Do they think this is just a democrat conspiracy and am I going to get screwed over by that mentality at a city-wide level here? Ugh.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

That's why you test as many people as you can. South Korea didn't just quarantine those with symptoms, they tested as many people as they could get their hands on. Notified them and got them away from everyone else.

South Korea is the standard for how this should be handled. Their numbers are now dropping and their death rate has been really low in contrast to the world.

+1, their model for this is great. With the lack of testing done/available in the US, our numbers of confirmed cases are going to prove to be dramatically low, right?

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Radii

Don't have the cards yet, but is it certain that you do actually have coverage? or is a potential snafu there and that's part of what insurance/employer are still messing with?

Some doc offices will probably freak out if there's no card, but if you've got coverage you should be able to get your Member Id and Group Number and just give those to the front office staff and be fine.

I have the group ID, no member ID.

My guess is this is a backside computer foul up. Everything is supposed to be automated, there was a website I (my wife) went to, filled everything out. I checked with my employer to make sure everything was good. Everything checked out. Double checked the website on Monday and again today. I called Aetna today and they are saying they have not seen anything yet.

I shot a note to HR to ask if everything can be resent. Everything on my end has dates for effective coverage and what is covered, so I have printed this all out and will take it with me.

My wife is in a panic, I am not. We need to pay everything out of pocket until the deductible is met anyway. Worst case, we get the receipts and submit after it gets set up.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

I have the group ID, no member ID.

Sent you a PM

[ISiddiqui]

Here is a good article I came across:

https://www.fast.ai/2020/03/09/coron...BjIo5Q_ZvwiSRU

The flu has a death rate of around 0.1% of infections. Marc Lipsitch, the director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard, estimates that for covid-19 it is 1-2%. The latest epedemiological modeling found a 1.6% rate in China in February, sixteen times higher than the flu1 (this might be quite a conservative number however, because rates go up a lot when the medical system can’t cope). Current best estimates expect that covid-19 will kill 10 times more people this year than the flu (and modeling by Elena Grewal, former director of data science at Airbnb, shows it could be 100 times more, in the worst case). This is before taking into consideration the huge impact on the medical system, such as that described above. It is understandable that some people are trying to convince themselves that this is nothing new, an illness much like the flu, because it is very uncomfortable to accept the reality that this is not familiar at all.

For each person that has the flu, on average, they infect 1.3 other people. That’s called the “R0” for flu. If R0 is less than 1.0, then an infection stops spreading and dies out. If it’s over 1.0, it spreads. R0 currently is 2-3 for covid-19 outside China. The difference may sound small, but after 20 “generations” of infected people passing on their infection, an R0 of 1.3 would result in 146 infections, but an R0 of 2.5 would result in 36 million infections! (This is, of course, very hand-wavy and ignores many real-world impacts, but it’s a reasonable illustration of the relative difference between covid-19 and flu, all other things being equal).

Hopefully this "it's just the flu" stuff disappears. However, we need the administration to step up for that to happen, but I don't see that happened .

[jbergey22]

Bing video

Coronavirus patient

[bob]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I remember thinking about this movie a lot in the days after 9/11. Pretty crazy.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Warhammer

This is the big thing, and why any quarantines will not actually work, by the time you know you have something or are fighting something, you've already been unknowingly exposing people to it.

Heck, as I posted above, I've been sick for weeks (in hindsight). Outside of a 3 day window, I would classify this as nothing more than a cold. With those three days, maybe I had the flu. Could I have something worse? Maybe. Could I have exposed many around me? Certainly.

Here's the other puzzling aspect, my boss, my wife and kids, none of them have gotten sick. Friends I have interacted with in that time, no one else has gotten sick. The only other one that has been sick, is the guy I am shadowing, and we came down with the heavier symptoms at roughly the same time (he has me by a few days here, his worst was the weekend before I got worse, we started exhibiting symptoms at the same time).

For the record, seeing the doctor tomorrow. The fact I have to fly to Vancouver for more training Sunday was the determining factor, I do not want to deal with anything lingering especially if I have a secondary infection.

I've read the symptoms are similar to the flu - cough, fever, tiredness but the additional symptom is shortness of breath. Have you experienced that?

[Edward64]

PSA: Here's a reddit AMA

I’m Dr. Ali Raja, Vice Chair of the Department of Emergency Medicine at Mass General Hospital, and Associate Professor at Harvard Medical School. I’m joined by Dr. Shuhan He, an Emergency Medicine physician at Mass General Hospital. Let's talk treatment & self care during COVID-19 outbreak. AMA. : Coronavirus

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Quarantines are working in China, SK, and Japan. Saying there's nothing we can do is just simply ignoring the evidence of what works.

Right. SK in particular are flat out kicking its ass at this point.

I think the key is to jump on it quick. Once it is rolling it is an SOB. But even then China brought it under control relatively quickly, IF you believe the numbers they are throwing out.

Having said that another key is to have a vaccine for next winter or it could be on a different level.

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I've read the symptoms are similar to the flu - cough, fever, tiredness but the additional symptom is shortness of breath. Have you experienced that?

No, not at all. The two odd things right now are the lingering cough, sore throat (which I believe is linked to the cough, but maybe secondary strep infection), and the crackle (sounds like carbonation) when exhaling (although after some breathing exercises, those are now intermittent).

EDIT: As an asthmatic (although typically exercise and cold weather triggered), I am sensitive to any changes in my breathing and realize for anything lung related I am particularly susceptible to it. So I practice some basic breathing techniques, breathe using your stomach not your chest, inhale deeply, hold it for a couple of seconds, exhale, etc. I learned by doing this (completely anecdotally), I tend to keep infections that would have sidelined me in the past, I can keep from setting in, or mitigate the damage if you will, instead of a severe case of bronchitis it is more mild, etc.

[Lathum]

Warriors to play home games without fans following San Francisco order

[ISiddiqui]

Fever is generally found in like 90% of those infected with COVID-19. It's shortness of breath that distinguishes it from the flu - you may find gunk in your lungs and find it slightly more annoying to breath, but feeling like you are constantly out of breath or winded (even while doing something like just talking) is a sign it's not flu and more likely coronavirus.

[stevew]

My kid is home for 2 extra weeks of spring break

[Butter]

Ohio governor just said he'll be issuing an order regarding mass gatherings in the coming days.

Probably means First Four in Dayton and first and second round in Cleveland will be played behind closed doors.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Butter

Ohio governor just said he'll be issuing an order regarding mass gatherings in the coming days.

Probably means First Four in Dayton and first and second round in Cleveland will be played behind closed doors.

Only for indoor events. His family owns a minor league baseball team and one of the biggest state senators family owns the Indians. So outdoor events are fine for now.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Only for indoor events. His family owns a minor league baseball team and one of the biggest state senators family owns the Indians. So outdoor events are fine for now.

I wonder if they move the games to another location - might as well play in a HS gym if they don't move the games to another state.

[Warhammer]

To continue the interesting bits, got another email from my doctor's office, he will see me at my appointment, but if there is a high fever or shortness of breath to go to the ER.

I understand why they sent the last part, but never had all this before a doctor's appt before. I feel like I should show up in a Hazmat suit.

[JPhillips]

I've been opposed to tele-docs, but in this situation we should all have access to that as a first screening tool.

[Lathum]

Chris Hassel on Twitter: "Just now on @CBSSportsHQ our @dennisdoddcbs reports that a major conference official told him a total cancellation the NCAA Tournament is definitely a possibility"

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Chris Hassel on Twitter: "Just now on @CBSSportsHQ our @dennisdoddcbs reports that a major conference official told him a total cancellation the NCAA Tournament is definitely a possibility"

It seems like the NCAA tournament would be a pretty bad scenario. Bunch of people from all over the country come to one site and then go back to their varying parts of the country (or if they win to new parts of the country).

Not sure why you wouldn't just play in an empty gym but maybe the travel is concerning too.

[spleen1015]

Saw on twitter that the Ivy League has cancelled all spring athletics.

[Lathum]

No fans at all ncaa tournament games. The economic impact will be huge.

[RainMaker]

Wondering what's going to happen with Little League sports and such.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Lathum

No fans at all ncaa tournament games. The economic impact will be huge.

One (UV light) shining moment (that is long enough to disinfect)

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Wondering what's going to happen with Little League sports and such.

Our local Little League sent out a email getting rid of the postgame handshakes. We are heading into spring break so I am sure there will be meetings held for the way forward.