Big 10 Expansion Thread -Big Ten ready for a playoff .. finally?

[Butter]

I would be shocked to see Clemson and Florida State make that move. I think they would've jumped to the SEC, but would doubt the Big 12 very seriously. And I don't think the fan bases of either would like the move very much.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, I just don't see it. They're the most likely candidates for when the SEC looks to expand so why go to the Big XII

SI

[bronconick]

The ACC contract is *so* bad by comparison to other BCS leagues that there's at least a chunk of FSU fans that believe they should at least listen if the Big XII calls, especially since the SEC at least talks a) about not being interested in expansion for another generation while they "absorb" their new teams and b) continue to act that they only want new markets, eliminating them from consideration.

The main issue is if the SEC deal jumps into that $25-30 million range between it expiring in the middle of the decade and the current renegotiation, FSU, Clemson and GT are all basically giving up over $100 million during the life of the ACC deal to their in-state rivals. Outside of perhaps Pitt and Penn State, the rest of the ACC doesn't have an issue like that and don't really seem to care.

Even some that don't really want to go wouldn't mind at least having discussions, since the idea of the Big XII sticking roots down in Florida in response to the SEC's "coup" of entering the Texas market with A&M would probably force the SEC to consider an invite to keep the Big XII out of the southeast.

[Ksyrup]

I'd hate that idea, but that's mainly because if we're going to move, I'd rather see us in the SEC because I live in Lexington.

[Kodos]

Yeah, FSU to the Big 12 makes little sense to me.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by bronconick

The ACC contract is *so* bad by comparison to other BCS leagues that there's at least a chunk of FSU fans that believe they should at least listen if the Big XII calls, especially since the SEC at least talks a) about not being interested in expansion for another generation while they "absorb" their new teams and b) continue to act that they only want new markets, eliminating them from consideration.

The main issue is if the SEC deal jumps into that $25-30 million range between it expiring in the middle of the decade and the current renegotiation, FSU, Clemson and GT are all basically giving up over $100 million during the life of the ACC deal to their in-state rivals. Outside of perhaps Pitt and Penn State, the rest of the ACC doesn't have an issue like that and don't really seem to care.

Even some that don't really want to go wouldn't mind at least having discussions, since the idea of the Big XII sticking roots down in Florida in response to the SEC's "coup" of entering the Texas market with A&M would probably force the SEC to consider an invite to keep the Big XII out of the southeast.

I think this is the only part that makes any sense and makes me think there could be something to it. The ACC was unfortunate in that it was the first conference to resign their TV deal and they gave up all three tiers for about $13-million (per team/per year) through 2024, just before the PAC-12 rewrote the market. The additions of Syracuse and Pitt will reportedly jump them up to around $15-million (which seems pretty generous, that those two schools would produce enough revenue to pay for themselves and bump 12 others schools up another $2-million).

Outside of adding Notre Dame, it is hard to see what else they can do to improve their situation. And, realistically, if Notre Dame is worth enough to bump 14 or 15 other schools up, they won't need the ACC to negotiate a deal that earns them more TV money.

Florida State and Clemson will have trouble keeping up with their SEC counterparts if they are earning $10-million+ less than Florida and South Carolina, so that is the only way I can see that they could be interested.

The ironic thing is that the situation could become similar to what happened with the ACC, Big East, and ESPN with Pitt and Syracuse. The Big East wanted a ton of money for their TV contract (reportedly were looking to get into the same range as the ACC teams ~ $13-million per team), but ESPN preferred to just take the two most valuable properties and pay them along with the ACC (rather than pay the other, less valuable Big East teams more).

It will be interesting to see what happens, but as a WVU fan on a Big 12 island, I would love to get a few more Eastern teams into the conference. Getting Florida State and Clemson would probably be enough to pull someone like Maryland (who are reportedly hemorrhaging money) and/or Pitt to come along, if 14-team conferences become more common.

EDIT: I had originally put that the ACC would be making "$1-million dollars!"

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I'd hate that idea, but that's mainly because if we're going to move, I'd rather see us in the SEC because I live in Lexington.

I think that Clemson and FSU obviously make much more sense in the SEC, but if the SEC's "gentlemen's agreement" truly exists, that means that Clemson, FSU, GT, and Louisville will never get in. If the next best option for those two is the Big 12, the SEC probably wouldn't object to seeing the ACC weakened to the point that it could get saturation in North Carolina and Virginia (which are really the only other markets that you would think they would be interested in). Similarly, the Big Ten could continue its footprint South of Pennsylvania into Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina (I'm guessing UNC would prefer the Big Ten to the SEC).

[albionmoonlight]

The sooner we get to four 16-team mega conferences and manage to go more than 2 weeks without expansion rumors abounding the better.

Isn't the final landscape eventually going to be

PAC 16
BIG 10
SEC
[Big 12-ACC-Big East Hybrid]

Taking 15 years to get there seems unduly laborious.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The sooner we get to four 16-team mega conferences and manage to go more than 2 weeks without expansion rumors abounding the better.

Isn't the final landscape eventually going to be

PAC 16
BIG 10
SEC
[Big 12-ACC-Big East Hybrid]

Taking 15 years to get there seems unduly laborious.

Hear, hear.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I think that Clemson and FSU obviously make much more sense in the SEC, but if the SEC's "gentlemen's agreement" truly exists, that means that Clemson, FSU, GT, and Louisville will never get in. If the next best option for those two is the Big 12, the SEC probably wouldn't object to seeing the ACC weakened to the point that it could get saturation in North Carolina and Virginia (which are really the only other markets that you would think they would be interested in). Similarly, the Big Ten could continue its footprint South of Pennsylvania into Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina (I'm guessing UNC would prefer the Big Ten to the SEC).

All that is true, but... what does it do for me?

[Atocep]

What gets FSU and Clemson to listen to the Big 12 is how much a TV contract with those 2 in fold would be. A Clemson + FSU to the Big 12 would likely put the Big 12 TV contract in the same ballpark as the next SEC deal. FSU and Clemson in the SEC doesn't add any new markets while those two schools add new markets to the Big 12 and pushes the Big 12 into a new region. The SEC would obviously get a bigger TV deal with those two, but it wouldn't have anywhere near the impact it would have on the Big 12. I'm sure both would rather be in the SEC, but the Big 12 does have a strong pitch.

I can tell you that our guys have said FSU has listened to the Big 12 and Clemson doesn't seem all that interested, but would likely do what FSU does because they realize the ACC's money isn't going to compete with the SEC or the Big 12 if Clemson/FSU join. That's what I've heard from our end, at least. There seems to be a lot of people that believe the ACC is the Big East circa-2004 during the next major round of expansion.

[Passacaglia]

Why FSU and Clemson, and not Miami and VT?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The sooner we get to four 16-team mega conferences and manage to go more than 2 weeks without expansion rumors abounding the better.

Isn't the final landscape eventually going to be

PAC 16
BIG 10
SEC
[Big 12-ACC-Big East Hybrid]

Taking 15 years to get there seems unduly laborious.

But you have to keep in mind: there are so many agents acting in each case for their own best interest or else this already would be done.

SI

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why FSU and Clemson, and not Miami and VT?

Florida State is still considered a "King" program in college football. Miami's close, but they've got restrictions they can't get past currently (don't own their own stadium, average about 35k per home game that doesn't involve FSU) and have a massive NCAA scandal waiting on deck.

Virginia Tech creates political issues in the state of Virginia. VT was also very outspoken in how not-interested they were in the SEC or moving anywhere in general. They also don't have the direct issue of a SEC in-state rival making 8 digits more a year then them.

Obviously, there's no guarantee any of this will happen. It does sound like the Big XII is trying to go for a home run rather than just jump back to 12 with Louisville and BYU like people were thinking earlier.

[digamma]

Florida State and Clemson are also much stronger in the "Olympic Sports" which is at least superficially important to certain members of the Big XII. Virginia Tech is also a travel nightmare.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why FSU and Clemson, and not Miami and VT?

Originally Posted by bronconick

Florida State is still considered a "King" program in college football. Miami's close, but they've got restrictions they can't get past currently (don't own their own stadium, average about 35k per home game that doesn't involve FSU) and have a massive NCAA scandal waiting on deck.

Virginia Tech creates political issues in the state of Virginia. VT was also very outspoken in how not-interested they were in the SEC or moving anywhere in general. They also don't have the direct issue of a SEC in-state rival making 8 digits more a year then them.

Obviously, there's no guarantee any of this will happen. It does sound like the Big XII is trying to go for a home run rather than just jump back to 12 with Louisville and BYU like people were thinking earlier.

Bronconick covers it although I don't think Miami will ever be considered a king football program again for any extended period of time. The landscape of college football has changed and Miami just doesn't have the money, facilities, fan support, or the donor support of the schools that would be considered the "kings" of college football.

Combine those things with the baggage they come with and they aren't anywhere near as attractive as a program as they were just a few years ago. Unless the ACC completely implodes they're probably going to be there for a long time.

[cartman]

All sorts of movement in the non-power conferences, and it appears that the WAC is all but finished. First up, UT-San Antonio, and newcomer to Division 1, is skipping a move to the WAC and going to Conference USA. They played as an independent last season. Louisiana Tech is also leaving the WAC to join Conference USA. Utah State and San Jose State are slated to leave for the Mountain West. Another WAC newcomer, Texas State, is headed for the Sun Belt. That will leave only Idaho and New Mexico State in the WAC.

UTSA set to join C-USA - San Antonio Express-News

Once-proud (and large) WAC on its death bed, and that's a shame - NCAA Football - CBSSports.com News, Scores, Stats, Schedule and BCS Rankings

[Klinglerware]

It might even make sense for Idaho to move down to FCS status...

[k0ruptr]

yea, sucks to be New Mexico St.

[molson]

Boise St. will also probably have to find a new non-football conference. And they've already burned their bridges with the MWC who has said they wouldn't take BSU back.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by molson

Boise St. will also probably have to find a new non-football conference. And they've already burned their bridges with the MWC who has said they wouldn't take BSU back.

Big Sky would take them back. Or they could go to the Big West.

[k0ruptr]

Originally Posted by molson

Boise St. will also probably have to find a new non-football conference. And they've already burned their bridges with the MWC who has said they wouldn't take BSU back.

Hawaii needs to relocate its non football sports quickly to the MWC

Edit: forgot Big West, i am dumb.

[bronconick]

So, in their BCS meetings last week, they eliminated the idea of semifinals at home stadiums, with Hancock spouting some nonsense about how "some schools couldn't support the influx of people and media to their city." Apparently, the fact these schools do it 6-8 times already doesn't register.

No one had issues with Tuscaloosa for the "Game of the Century" this year, and that was 6 months after half the town was leveled by a tornado.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by bronconick

So, in their BCS meetings last week, they eliminated the idea of semifinals at home stadiums, with Hancock spouting some nonsense about how "some schools couldn't support the influx of people and media to their city." Apparently, the fact these schools do it 6-8 times already doesn't register.

No one had issues with Tuscaloosa for the "Game of the Century" this year, and that was 6 months after half the town was leveled by a tornado.

It's only a matter of time. They'll expand to 8 teams relatively quickly and, at a minimum, those four quarterfinal games will happen on campus.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

It's only a matter of time. They'll expand to 8 teams relatively quickly and, at a minimum, those four quarterfinal games will happen on campus.

I don't think they will change it to 8 teams anytime soon. For one thing, I think a 8 team playoff has been shot down and they are working on just a 4 team version. Secondly, they figure by just using the playoff system will quiet the playoff wanting gang for a nice period of time. I think finding more than 4 teams to be playoff worthy is asking a lot. Last year it would have been 'Bama, LSU, OSU, and Oregon.

[Ksyrup]

I'll be perfectly content with a 4-team playoff. Of course, once the details come out I'm sure they'll find some way to screw it up. Like the discussion about limiting the 4 to only conference champions - I think that's gone away, but something equally assinine will take its place for us to bitch about.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Matthean

I don't think they will change it to 8 teams anytime soon. For one thing, I think a 8 team playoff has been shot down and they are working on just a 4 team version. Secondly, they figure by just using the playoff system will quiet the playoff wanting gang for a nice period of time. I think finding more than 4 teams to be playoff worthy is asking a lot. Last year it would have been 'Bama, LSU, OSU, and Oregon.

Of course it's been shot down for now. But when you see some of these smaller conference teams go undefeated and they still aren't considered for the top four, there's going to be some belly-aching. 8 teams allows enough room for a small conference team or two to get in. 4 is a good step, but it's only a first step and certainly won't be the last.

[wade moore]

Welp, the CAA looks like it could be in trouble.

We had the official announcement several weeks back that Georgia State is headed to the Sun Belt in 2013.

Then we've had off and on strong rumors that GMU and VCU are headed to the Atlantic-10. This only impacts basketball, but a HUGE impact to basketball.

Now, rumors are that part of the CUSA filling back up is that they will be taking ODU with them. ODU had their first official season in FCS last year, so it seems not 100% clear on what exactly happens with the football team.

Link:

Conference USA reloading by adding 6 schools - CBSSports


Latest appears to be saying that ODU could compete in the CUSA for football in 2013, idano the specifics on it still though.

[bronconick]

Anything larger than 4 teams may take some time, as the NCAA has publicly said that they don't view a +1 or 4 team setup as a "playoff", but anything larger would be considered one, and they'd want direct control of it, like every other sport.

Obviously, that's never going to happen, so the Big 5/6 conferences would have to threaten to separate to get the NCAA to back off first.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Of course it's been shot down for now. But when you see some of these smaller conference teams go undefeated and they still aren't considered for the top four, there's going to be some belly-aching. 8 teams allows enough room for a small conference team or two to get in. 4 is a good step, but it's only a first step and certainly won't be the last.

If not for a late missed FG, BSU would have been in the top 4.

[Swaggs]

With my FSU to the Big 12 conspiracy hat on, this raised an eyebrow:http://www.tallahassee.com/article/2...nclick_check=1

Legit or justifying a move for financial purposes? I'm still hearing a lot of Clemson and FSU to the Big 12 noise.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

With my FSU to the Big 12 conspiracy hat on, this raised an eyebrow:http://www.tallahassee.com/article/2...nclick_check=1

Legit or justifying a move for financial purposes? I'm still hearing a lot of Clemson and FSU to the Big 12 noise.

If the SEC isn't interested in adding redundant markets then it makes a ton of sense for FSU and Clemson. The Big 12 TV deal with FSU, Clemson, Louisville, +4th team would dwarf anything the ACC could get.

There's definitely a lot of smoke out there. I believe Swaim went as far as saying it's likely yesterday. We should know something within the next couple of months.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by tarcone

I'm reading on rivals-mo message board that some ACC schools tired of NC/Duke BB. Clemson, FSU, GT, Miami eyeing Big 12.

I posted this Jan. 24th. This is old news to me.

[bronconick]

Let's avoid considering Greg Swaim as any kind of legit source.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Atocep

If the SEC isn't interested in adding redundant markets then it makes a ton of sense for FSU and Clemson. The Big 12 TV deal with FSU, Clemson, Louisville, +4th team would dwarf anything the ACC could get.

There's definitely a lot of smoke out there. I believe Swaim went as far as saying it's likely yesterday. We should know something within the next couple of months.

The latest rumor I saw was that ESPN was willing to go up to $18M per team if all of the ACC teams would sign a grant of rights for the life of the deal. Apparently, Swofford wants more like $21M.

I know the market has changed, but it seems pretty hard to believe that simply adding Syracuse and Pitt would add $4-7M per team (for 14 teams), per year to the ACC's deal. At some point, you have to figure ESPN will give them the Big East treatment and nudge the other conferences to take the more valuable football properties.

[Swaggs]

Likely new B12 commish offered:Sources -- Stanford Cardinal AD Bob Bowlsby offered Big 12 Conference commissioner's job - ESPN

Hearing the Big 12's new TV deal will come in just below $21M per team for tier 1 and 2 rights.

Texas wants 12 teams, while other schools want 14. Adding 2 schools and a championship will bump the number up about $2M per team. A marquee team (like FSU) would make the number slightly bigger.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

The latest rumor I saw was that ESPN was willing to go up to $18M per team if all of the ACC teams would sign a grant of rights for the life of the deal. Apparently, Swofford wants more like $21M.

I know the market has changed, but it seems pretty hard to believe that simply adding Syracuse and Pitt would add $4-7M per team (for 14 teams), per year to the ACC's deal. At some point, you have to figure ESPN will give them the Big East treatment and nudge the other conferences to take the more valuable football properties.

Considering that Sports Business Journal was saying $1-2 million per school last fall (moving it to like 14-15 million) your rumors would add smoke to the fire that FSU/Clemson are shopping around quietly. All things being equal, ESPN wants to keep the ACC intact, since they have the longest contract and full control over all ACC rights unlike every other conference.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Considering that Sports Business Journal was saying $1-2 million per school last fall (moving it to like 14-15 million) your rumors would add smoke to the fire that FSU/Clemson are shopping around quietly. All things being equal, ESPN wants to keep the ACC intact, since they have the longest contract and full control over all ACC rights unlike every other conference.

I think there's still probably less than a 50% of the FSU/Clemson move, but if it happens and the Big East continues to be intent on leaving for NBC, I could see ESPN wanting to pull the remaining valuable properties from the Big East.

I'm thinking that would be UConn and Louisville (two top 10 or 15 basketball programs) and maybe Rutgers and maybe Temple and Cincinnati. That would pretty much undercuts whatever remains of the Big East + NBC as a viable TV opponent for ESPN.

FWIW, if FSU/Clemson fall apart, Louisville and one of Cincy or Rutgers are probably the next best option fort he B12.

[Butter]

No "Butler to the Atlantic 10" discussion? Screw you guys, I'm going home.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Matthean

If not for a late missed FG, BSU would have been in the top 4.

TCU's finished in the top 4 at least once.

It can happen, you just need an undefeated season, a stronger than usual non-bcs conference, wins over 2 conference teams and 2 non-conference teams that were ranked at least a good chunk of the season, and at least 5 wins over "OK" teams, and no other undefeated teams in the country. It won't happen every year, but that can definitely happen.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

No "Butler to the Atlantic 10" discussion? Screw you guys, I'm going home.

Love all that's happening right below the BCS conferences. Poor Idaho and NMSU.

[molson]

There's a big consensus with the Idaho Vandal fans that I know for a preference to drop to 1-AA. They were winning conference championships there, competing in the tournament, having exciting games. A lot of the fun has been taking out of the program. And Boise St refuses to play them anymore.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

No "Butler to the Atlantic 10" discussion? Screw you guys, I'm going home.

Love the move. Think it's great for them and a real reward for their continual rise. Nice that they can pair up with some of their old rivals in SLU and Xavier too.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by molson

TCU's finished in the top 4 at least once.

It can happen, you just need an undefeated season, a stronger than usual non-bcs conference, wins over 2 conference teams and 2 non-conference teams that were ranked at least a good chunk of the season, and at least 5 wins over "OK" teams, and no other undefeated teams in the country. It won't happen every year, but that can definitely happen.

ESPN, or maybe SI pointed out some of the teams that missed out who were ranked #3 and #4. Obviously the smaller conferences need to go undefeated, but top 4 is within reach for those teams.

[bronconick]

Clemson based article on the BCS changes/Big XII rumors

How does the death of the BCS affect Clemson? - Shakin The Southland

Tomahawk Nation (FSU's SB site) will be doing a similar story Monday.

[cuervo72]

I sure wouldn't argue against football teams wanting to leave the ACC.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

I sure wouldn't argue against football teams wanting to leave the ACC.

me neither! Good riddance.

[DeToxRox]

Seems like a very underwhelming deal that the ACC got today from ESPN.

[General Mike]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Seems like a very underwhelming deal that the ACC got today from ESPN.

Oh come on, it was a genius move to tie up all their rights with ESPN for an extra 5 years with no concessions. Pure genius.

[britrock88]

$3.6bn over 15 years / 14 teams -> ~$17.25M/team/year. I don't know how that compares.