The Stock Market thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

She wasn't rich before 2018?

Depends on your definition of rich. Most of her life has been spent in academics or working for the government. A nice 6-figure income is nothing to scoff at but not crazy wealthy. Once she left that and entered into the speaking tour gig her income has shot up.

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Sure, but your theory is that she used to believe different things and then got paid. My theory is she's been a part of the financial elite for decades and would push the same policies whether she made 7 million or 7 thousand.

Is there any evidence she would have done something different before she got speaking fees?

You could be right, we'll never know. But I do think it is hard to be impartial to people who have been bribing you for the past couple years.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Depends on your definition of rich. Most of her life has been spent in academics or working for the government. A nice 6-figure income is nothing to scoff at but not crazy wealthy. Once she left that and entered into the speaking tour gig her income has shot up.



You could be right, we'll never know. But I do think it is hard to be impartial to people who have been bribing you for the past couple years.

So rather than trying to divine her motives, we should just judge the actions.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

They were on the verge of bankrupting a bunch of hedge funds and financial institutions before the bailout came. Removed almost all liquidity from the market (and likely would have if they had continued). All with a few moves and a forum to talk. Maybe they're not as dumb as you think.

It was a joke. Wallstreetbets has always joked about how it's mostly a place where people go to lose money.

[Edward64]

Fri futures are down after a decent day. Right now the Dow is essentially up +0% for Jan which sucks considering the really nice Biden up after inauguration. One last day to pull it off.

AAPL down 3.5% even after a record quarter and increased success in China. GBTC (bitcoin trust) going crazy, up and down today and finally landed at +7.28%.

[CrimsonFox]

so what exactly is happening with gamestop and reddit

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Depends on your definition of rich.

I think most people would call being worth millions of dollars as "rich".

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I think most people would call being worth millions of dollars as "rich".

FWIW.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/how-...o-be-rich.html

The responses did vary slightly by generation. Baby boomers (ages 55 to 73) and Gen X (ages 38 to 54), unsurprisingly, named a higher net worth required to be rich, while millennials (ages 21 to 38) gave a slightly lower figure.

Millennials: It takes $2.2 million to be considered rich
Gen X: It takes $2.6 million to be considered rich
Boomers: It takes $2.6 million to be considered rich

[CrimsonFox]

[CrimsonFox]

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

So rather than trying to divine her motives, we should just judge the actions.

They aren't paying millions to hear her pontificate on Keynesian economics. You know exactly how the "speaking gig" shit works.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

They aren't paying millions to hear her pontificate on Keynesian economics. You know exactly how the "speaking gig" shit works.

That is exactly what they are paying for. Many people they pay those big fees to they know are never going to hold office or hold a position of power again. They pay for the knowledge they hold and to learn.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Isn't there a missing last step? What happens after all the snakes have covered everything, there will be a bunch of apes with overvalued bananas.

Still don't know who is right here and legalese definition of stock/market manipulation. Yellen has a lot of work to do with SEC to stabilize the markets some (e.g. restrict short selling?).

[Lathum]

Really curious to see what happens with the 50 shares of AMC I bought at $13.

Even if they go to zero the cost of being entertained all week was worth it.

[lungs]

I grabbed a little Nokia the other day. Anybody know why the funds shorted Nokia? I deal with them quite a bit in my work.

[Flasch186]

Looks like they may attack Silver as they think it'll be less likely that the brokerages can stop the trades on the miners etc but I think we learned that they can shut down what they want. I've stuck a toe in on BB and AMC and HL but not enough to hurt.

The other day I took a flyer on KOSS and got out with a minor loss when I got skirred. Came back an hour later and would've made a ton had I stayed in from being distracted etc but nothing you can do but type it out on here and move on

[Carman Bulldog]

So I get the whole concept of shorting. Borrowing shares in anticipation of them going down in price, selling them after the price drops and then re-paying back the borrowed shares. Profit.

Someone fill in the blanks for me please...

Who are the people loaning out these shares?
Why loan shares to established "shorters", knowing that if you are loaning out say, a $10 share, that you are likely only to get $8 back?
How can a shorter lawfully sell something (ie. a share) that they don't actually own?

[wustin]

Brokerages loan out shares. They charge an interest for each share so the higher the share price the higher the fee. How long shorters have to rebuy and cover depends on the agreement between both parties.

So to keep it simple, sell high, buy low, return share + percentage fee, pocket the difference. Do this in volumes of millions of shares a day and you make billions of dollars.

[molson]

One way to think of it is that it's really more an exchange of contracts than the buying and selling of a share.

Edit: If you could slow it all down you could identify a contract where two people agree to take various actions within a range of contractually permissible actions. But of course that's all efficiently boiled down into one of billions of tradeable numbers on a screen.

[Mota]

The whole idea of shorting stocks is terrible. You're capitalizing on the weak.
If someone catches wind of this and decides to profit from the short, well the people didn't hide it enough. The moment you start going to press, trying to tank stocks so that you can short them and make money, you're a moron, and deserve to lose your shirt.

[Edward64]

Lousy Jan and start of the year.

I'm blaming it on the GameStop-and-like situation and the uncertainty it's brought.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Lousy Jan and start of the year.

I'm blaming it on the GameStop-and-like situation and the uncertainty it's brought.

That's part of it. Fasten your seat belt. Regulations, regulations, regulations. Fortunately, I had already shifted a large percentage of mine over to bonds and high yield money market before the latest downturn.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

That's part of it. Fasten your seat belt. Regulations, regulations, regulations. Fortunately, I had already shifted a large percentage of mine over to bonds and high yield money market before the latest downturn.

Wasn't the same thing said about the Obama administration?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Wasn't the same thing said about the Obama administration?

And Clinton.

[wustin]

Yeah no I'm not selling out of my apple stock, I'm gonna buy more next week actually.

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Wasn't the same thing said about the Obama administration?

Yes, the same thing was said about the Obama administration. In the last six years of his presidency, with divided government, the market flourished. Yes, the same thing was said about the Clinton administration. In the last six years of his presidency, with divided government, the market flourished. Presumably, we will have divided government in two years and the market will probably flourish again.

[JPhillips]

2009 S&P up 23%
2010 S&P up 13%
2011 S&P flat

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

2009 S&P up 23%
2010 S&P up 13%
2011 S&P flat

What do you think you are doing bringing facts in here?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Yes, the same thing was said about the Obama administration. In the last six years of his presidency, with divided government, the market flourished. Yes, the same thing was said about the Clinton administration. In the last six years of his presidency, with divided government, the market flourished. Presumably, we will have divided government in two years and the market will probably flourish again.

I've heard this and googled on it. WSJ article says a divided government is not any better. But Fortune, Yahoo and other articles seems to support what you (and what I've heard) are saying.

I can easily believe the yes/no camps are using 2 different sets of data or assumptions (e.g. start tracking day after election or on inauguration, start tracking as of when). I believe WSJ is using all historical data whereas Yahoo is using as of 1980's.

So if someone has a definitive link, appreciate a link. Until then, I'll side with you that a divided government is (recent) historically better and not just focus on a one-data-set example.

[sterlingice]

Now there's some crazy narrative that Reddit is trying to buy up SLV. And it's everywhere: CNN, CNBC, WSJ

However, if you go over to WSB, all the top posts are about how any upvoted SLV post is from new users who are trying to distract from GME and how huge SLV positions are held by Citadel so you're just giving them money to cover their shots on GME. Literally the top 7 posts are pointing out fake media stories about it, showing how Citadel owns tons of SLV, or memes like "it's a trap".

But, hey, it's retail investor morons that are the market manipulators.


SI

[albionmoonlight]

"Why should I invest in your company?"

"Well, sir, as you can see, we sell products and services for more money than it costs us to make and provide the products and services. We keep the excess money for ourselves as profit. If you invest in our company, then you will have a right to a percentage of that profit. Thus, you should invest in our company."

"That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard! You call that a sales pitch? Not one word about Reddit? What are the furries forums saying about your company? Is Elon Musk going to tweet vague and cryptic musings about you when he's taking a shit? And your company seems to be dealing in dollars and Euros. Do you even know what a KardashianKoin is?"

[PilotMan]

This whole trend will never be duplicated like this. This was a one time deal. No way can that many people reliably put in for the same thing again. Too many people will be ready to convince them it's a trap or something.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This whole trend will never be duplicated like this. This was a one time deal. No way can that many people reliably put in for the same thing again. Too many people will be ready to convince them it's a trap or something.

Even more to the point it was kind of dependant on r/WallStreetBets not being on Wall Street's radar. There's no reason hedge funds and massive investment firms can't track and manipulate/capitalize on that completely visible & available data (probably better than the individuals were doing) from now on.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

This whole trend will never be duplicated like this. This was a one time deal. No way can that many people reliably put in for the same thing again. Too many people will be ready to convince them it's a trap or something.

I like to think this but really unsure. Greed & get rich quick schemes are strong motivations.

I read other countries' subreddit and it's "how can I get in", "should I get in". I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a global phenomenon.

Not sure if China populace can invest in US stocks but China has a lot of savings to speculate on. See real estate, P2P etc.

[BishopMVP]

This is probably a one time deal where they're not trying to pump & dump, they're trying to pump & hold until short positions get closed out (I'm guessing hedge funds will find a way to hide their short positions, and umm, maybe not brag about they are driving down the price of stocks they have big short positions for on Twitter or CNBC), but I don't see why people won't try to use this template to pump & dump some lower priced stocks going forward. That's also where it probably starts getting illegal, though I think what's happened so far isn't illegal on the WSB/retail investor side, and wildly illegal on the Wall Street side.

[Edward64]

I'm glad Gamestop seems to be winding down, it just made a lot of noise in the markets. I hope whoever bought it here made a profit.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm glad Gamestop seems to be winding down, it just made a lot of noise in the markets. I hope whoever bought it here made a profit.

Idk if it's winding down or being short ladder attacked - the volume numbers are an order of magnitude off what they were when the stock was going up, the publicly available buy/sell spreads are still heavily on the buy side, and a lot of retail $$$ will re-enter the market when people who pulled money out of Robin Hood get it cleared at new brokerages (Fidelity is a huge winner here...) - there's at least another spike or two coming.

This week is my first one not working 60 hours since November, so I dove down the rabbit hole, and it's pretty interesting. The media led by CNBC are pushing a completely false narrative that WSB switched to Silver, WSB is 100% against that and pointing out Citadel (which backs Melvin) has the biggest position in that. WSB has also taken it personally and made it a moral crusade after the shenanigans last Thursday, and they're also convinced the huge HF short positions are still out there and vulnerable (albeit not at 140% of float) and probably indicative of counterfeiting stocks so if they hold & buy the dips after ladder attacks eventually the short sellers that are paying interest on fail to delivers will have to pay up. The smart ones like the DeepFuckingValue guy who started this have both massively cashed out ($13m on like $11k to start) but still have large positions they're content to hold since they're looking at it like found money and worth risking to fuck the hedge funds. (Edit: plus obligatory I JUST LIKE THE STOCK) There's also funny stuff going on - someone put $25m down on an $800 call option for 3/19 just before close yesterday. Is it leverage for a huge short position they took or had? Is it someone who thinks there's a chance this will actually be over $800 on that date? Probably the former, but idk, and either way it shows this isn't retail investors at this point - some whales or funds are also betting big in here.

Either way, it's been fun reading & not that anyone will go to jail or get more than a fine (RH will probably be bought out or have to change its name, but Vlad will get a golden parachute to be the fall guy) it's definitely exposing a lot of corruption for those paying attention.

[sterlingice]

It feels like 2008 all over again and, sadly, like 2008 I don't expect anyone to end up in jail

SI

[Butter]

I made the most I've ever made on a single trade by selling off my $300 2/26 put this morning during the nose dive.

I'm sure it's going to rebound some at some point, but I got out because I really have no clue what it's going to do short term, but was pretty convinced that it would be a roller coaster that would present more selling opportunities.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Butter

I made the most I've ever made on a single trade by selling off my $300 2/26 put this morning during the nose dive.

I'm sure it's going to rebound some at some point, but I got out because I really have no clue what it's going to do short term, but was pretty convinced that it would be a roller coaster that would present more selling opportunities.

Congrats. What are you going to buy the significant other?

Yesterday & today were really good days. I need tomorrow to be like this for my portfolio to get back to the late Jan highs.

[Edward64]

Bezos is handing off Amazon. It's up 1% after the bell.

Amazing success story and had the vision to change the paradigm of book selling and then, somehow, took the quantum leap to where Amazon is now.

[sterlingice]

And definitely not a Bond-ian super villain along with Elon Musk

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

And definitely not a Bond-ian super villain along with Elon Musk

SI

Well, he did cheat on his wife. I am sure he's an asshole to many of his employees and ruthless to his vendors (pretty common denominator to the brilliant folks). But over the past 20 years or so, he changed America for the better.

He's supposedly going to spend time on other pursuits (e.g. Space). Can't wait for ARK's space ETF.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Congrats. What are you going to buy the significant other?

Yesterday & today were really good days. I need tomorrow to be like this for my portfolio to get back to the late Jan highs.

Nothing, it's all in my Etrade IRA

[Edward64]

Today started okay and then pooped out.

But the interesting news is an iCar !!

Shares of South Korean automakers Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors jumped 1.83% and 2.35%, respectively, in morning trade. That came after sources told CNBC that Apple is close to finalizing a deal with Hyundai-Kia to manufacture an Apple-branded autonomous electric vehicle at the Kia assembly plant in West Point, Georgia.

On Wednesday, shares of Kia surged following a local media report that the carmaker is set to sign a 4 trillion won (about $3.59 billion) deal with Apple to build electric vehicles, according to Reuters.

[Edward64]

Was enjoying the "after glow" of a pretty good day (actually 4 days), flipping channels and ended up on Fox Business.

They were doing short interviews with small business owners and how pandemic, relief bills etc. were helping/not. This segment was really non-political, just small business owners sharing stories which I thought was interesting. There should be more of these segments.

And then at the top of the hour, Lou Dobbs came on and I had to change it. I enjoyed Lou when he was doing CNN business.

[GrantDawg]

Lou Dobbs was once well respected.

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[Kodos]

Rudy Giuliani was once well respected.

[NobodyHere]

OJ Simpson was once well respected.

[GrantDawg]

I used to love O.J. and Bill Cosby.

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[albionmoonlight]

Kevin Spacey