OT: Jeopardy! fans

[cuervo72]

From what I've seen, his glasses are anything but risk-averse.

[JPhillips]

It worked out and it wouldn't have made a big difference, but I don't understand the final bet of the winner. Any was going to bet enough to win if he doubled, but not much more. I understand betting just enough to beat Amy if she misses and I understand betting as much as you can but still guarantee 2nd if you lose. I even understand betting it all on a YOLO. I don't understand betting 12K.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It worked out and it wouldn't have made a big difference, but I don't understand the final bet of the winner. Any was going to bet enough to win if he doubled, but not much more. I understand betting just enough to beat Amy if she misses and I understand betting as much as you can but still guarantee 2nd if you lose. I even understand betting it all on a YOLO. I don't understand betting 12K.

Ok, I like noodling this stuff.

Scores leading into FJ were:

27,600 Amy
3,200 middle
17,600 Rhone

Amy's most likely bet is just enough to win, something over 7,600 but certainly not enough to put the middle person into play, and presumably not enough to give Rhone the win without him getting the answer right on her miss. So, 7,601 up to 9,999 seems like her very reliable range. (She actually bet 8,000)

So, Rhone has to get it right to win from an Amy miss, or hope Amy makes an uncharacteristic wager blunder. Rule out the latter here. If she misses she ends up with 17,601 up to 19,999. He has to beat that score, but he likely doesn't want to risk the $1,000 differential in the (much more likely than taking 1st) 2nd/3rd prizes.

So, Rhone's perfect bet here feels like 11,199... assuming that he is weighing the $1,000 cash differential for 2nd/3rd as material, because (once again) he's only in play for the top slot in an unusual setup (i.e. Amy misses, he hits, that probably won't happen more than 5 in 100 times here).

The 12,000 takes an unnecessary risk, for modest benefit... and if he was indeed willing to risk falling to 3rd in that specific situation (Amy misses, he misses, middle hits) then he should have maxed out the wager in that domain to 14,599. Upside if he yahtzees it, no downside if it goes the worst way.

All-in is probably too much risk, weighing the likelihood of the various outcomes... a 3-way FJ stumper has to be a lot more likely than that last situation (Amy misses, he misses, middle hits) so that feels like an unnecessary risk to take to fall to third and lose out on an actual $1,000.

I like 14,599 and 11,199 as final wagers better than the 12,000.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It worked out and it wouldn't have made a big difference, but I don't understand the final bet of the winner. Any was going to bet enough to win if he doubled, but not much more. I understand betting just enough to beat Amy if she misses and I understand betting as much as you can but still guarantee 2nd if you lose. I even understand betting it all on a YOLO. I don't understand betting 12K.

Seemed like a math error to me. 11k would have been a better bet, since you still guarantee second ($2,000 in winnings is better than $1,000), and you have to assume Amy is likely to be correct and will bet enough to cover second place.

So... 27,600, 3,200, 17,600.

Amy will bet at least $7,601 (she bet $8,000 - if you've been watching, she almost always went with a multiple of 1k for anything). Amy is unlikely to bet more than $9,999, as that would risk a loss if it were a triple-stumper.

Rhone needs to bet $10,001 to win no matter what if Amy misses and bets nothing, and no more than $11,199 to ensure he stays ahead of Janice. A bet of $2,400 would cover getting it right and the lowest amount he can assume Amy will bet.

Or, he can gamble a bit, and bet the full $17,600 if he doesn't care that much between $2,000 and $1,000. That way he gets $35,200 if he wins instead of the $29,600 he received. He would essentially leave a potential $17,600 - $11,199 = $6,401 on the table in order to secure that $1,000 difference between second and third.

Since Amy was 68% over the course of her run in Final, it's an interesting decision. But not that much to work through, because Amy wouldn't make the mistake of betting less than $7,601 or more than $9,999.

There's no value in betting less than $11,199 since Amy doesn't have to risk becoming vulnerable to a triple-stumper.

TLR, yes, the $12k wasn't an optimal bet, though I don't understand betting anything less than $11,199.

[QuikSand]

Brutal FJ tactics last night, eventually yielding the "correct" result, I suppose.

Third player is out, champ has 12,300 and challenger has 10,200. Topic is Central America, potentially important as some could feel this is a demonstrable weak spot, I suppose.

Challenger misses...turns out she bet 8,000, leaving her with 2,200.

Champ flushes... reveals she missed also... and had bet every penny.

So, that the challenger's wager was enough to place her below the level the champ would have had if she had placed the win-by-a-dollar amount and missed it. That was a totally needless risk.

It's actually that situation that the champ was apparently unworried about, and she just bet on herself with everything and went to zero, and lost. If she makes the standard leader wager there, she wins with 4,199.

Wow.

[JPhillips]

That's the situation where, if I'm in second, I bet 0. I don't want to have to have two things happen if I can win with one thing happening.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

That's the situation where, if I'm in second, I bet 0. I don't want to have to have two things happen if I can win with one thing happening.

I think the topic dictates the wager. If the FJ topic was text based sims or how to fudge a bank statement are you really betting zero?

[JPhillips]

It doesn't matter what I know, it's what the person in first knows. I want to avoid having to both be right and have the person in first be wrong if I can almost certainly win without having to be right.

[QuikSand]

Current champ is a good player but routinely breaks the “rules” for FJ wagering and has been a walking between raindrops to validate it. I now want him to lose because of a stupid bet, like he has the lead but doesn’t bet enough and gets beaten.

[QuikSand]

Yesterday's Box Score: May 24, 2022 #jeopardata pic.twitter.com/PUBiPWmMxg

— Jeopardy! (@Jeopardy) May 25, 2022

Yesterday's Box Score: May 23, 2022 #jeopardata pic.twitter.com/LSmjyItYK5

— Jeopardy! (@Jeopardy) May 24, 2022

I guess there's a deeper second-tier logic to making a bet with an assumption that the other person will likely do something specific... but I really hate the idea of playing through the whole game and establishing a solid lead, only to blow it with a too-timid FJ bet at the end. Seriously, bet to win unless the category is a nearly total blank for you.

[JPhillips]

Did you see the one last week where the challenger got a Double Jeopardy! on the last question of the game and then didn't bet enough to get to first place?

He missed the question, so it didn't matter, but you have to be willing to bet to win or you deserve to lose.

[QuikSand]

Yes, he has done that a few times now, including 5/23. I HATE IT.

[cuervo72]

There was a game a month or two ago where the challenger was killing in in DJ, built a lead, but the champ was still within range of her. She got back-to-back DD's late in the round -- only a few answers were left at the top of the board. She got them both right but STILL hadn't bet enough to be safe in FJ. I was yelling at the TV. It was one of the worst strategic displays I have ever seen.

J! Archive - Show #8610, aired 2022-04-01

[QuikSand]

Yesterday's Box Score: May 27, 2022 #jeopardata pic.twitter.com/ft2zhWjowC

— Jeopardy! (@Jeopardy) May 28, 2022

So, he continues on...this time when the other player, as leader, decides to bet zero (turns out, wisely) on FJ and the champ bet to win and got it. Mysteries abound.

[JPhillips]

OMG. These final bets.

[JPhillips]

My God. These bets are going to give me an aneurism.

[Ksyrup]

This recent 3-day champ has to be the weakest in history. Two victories by $2 after missing final jeopardy. I suppose she knows more about betting final jeopardy than answering correctly.

[Ksyrup]

Worst 5 day champ ever.

[thealmighty]

I know that probably wasn't it, so what is the lowest Jeopardy winning amount?


And I agree, she is not likely to fair well in the ToC.

[Ksyrup]

Holy shit, she did it again. Third place to $2 win. I don't study Jeopardy wagering, so I don't know if she's lucky or good. But as a player, I'm going to say that Wachspress is German for lucky-shitty.

[Ksyrup]

I thought for sure she was going to win by $1 but luckily the guy got the answer correct and bet more than a $1.

[cuervo72]

I didn't watch the episode but had it on on mute in the background and did peek at it for FJ. He won, but again, WTF was that bet? You're tied and you don't bet to win? Chickenshit.

[JPhillips]

The judges are so inconsistent in regards to mispronounced answers.

[QuikSand]

I believe there are specific rules about mis-pronunciation... if you add/omit a syllable, that's definitely a wrong answer, but it does seem there's some variable latitude when it comes to accuracy past that.

[JPhillips]

Tonight it was the Harry Potter spell, expelliarmus. The contestant mispronounced was told no, mispronounced it again, and was given credit, then Bialyk pronounced it correctly.

I'm fine with being harsh or having a "we know what you meant" approach, it just seems like there's very little consistency to how they handle things.

[QuikSand]

the current host is not a contributor to stability in this regard

and her unbearable extra-half-second "slow roll" to confirm a correct result just kills me inside at least 3x per episode

[cuervo72]

Oh, my wife and I can't stand that. If it's correct, BE QUICK ABOUT IT. Don't leave everyone hanging and unsure.

There have been some games that have been clunkers. I don't know how much of that is the fault of the contestants (for just not being superplayers), how much of that is on the host, and how much of that is on the writers. (Now, I like to fashion myself as ok at trivia, but there have been some questions where after hearing them I am just like "WTF are they going for with this?" Tough to say if those are just not good questions or if there is something in the delivery.)

I do think that most of these have been "Mayim" games though. I think Ken is stronger just from having a better grasp on the subject matter, though I don't know if it's just that.

[QuikSand]

I gleefully co-sign all of the comments from the gentleman from parts west

I know these peeves would come off as picayune to the non-immersed, but the heart wants what it wants

[QuikSand]

For those who are sensitive about Final Jeopardy wagering and the offenses against common sense embedded therein...I advise you to skip the next post in this thread.

[QuikSand]

Yesterday's Box Score: July 18, 2022 #jeopardata pic.twitter.com/iYMMg5qlFt

— Jeopardy! (@Jeopardy) July 19, 2022

An all time classic.

[QuikSand]

...so, I personally just subscribe to the simplest model for the leader. Unless the catgeory is a massive blind spot for you, you just bet enough to ensure your win if you get it correct. Perhaps more, but you do that much at a minimum.

Anyway, even if we advance her the benefit of the doubt that there's some reasonable logic behind the strategy of "bet enough to beat him if all he does is ensures he'll beat the third place contestant"... which I find dubious... there is absolutely no argument for a wager of $4,001. You at the very least play to win in that situation, and you wager $4,002. It's nearly unfathomable there's any downside to 4002 over 4001, but the upside is very meaningful, and in this case proved to determine the outcome.

Just unspeakably bad.

[Ksyrup]

I was curious about that. I didn't get the wisdom of the 1st and 2nd place money both betting just enough to beat 3rd place. It's like they were each one-on-one with the champ, or otherwise gave way too much deference to the champ and completely ignored each other. Weird.

[QuikSand]

Nobody cares she was "champ" she's not an intimidating player by any means.

I thought the middle contestant, in 2nd place, made a reasonable wager - betting enough to definitely stay clear of 3rd place person if you're correct is worthwhile. And it also would give him enough money to overtake the leader were she make the "proper" $6,001 bet but miss it.

[QuikSand]

This could be the episode that sends r/Jeopardy (in which i do not partake) into spirals of maybe contestants shoudl start betting +$2 or +8 in these cases where you want to be "just enough to..." -- there's very little downside to doing so.

[sterlingice]

What in the world was 1st place doing there?

Also, there are tiebreakers?

SI

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Also, there are tiebreakers?

I don't know when they added it, but the old rule was that tied participants both got paid and returned... now it's a single question sudden death tiebreaker.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...so, I personally just subscribe to the simplest model for the leader. Unless the catgeory is a massive blind spot for you, you just bet enough to ensure your win if you get it correct. Perhaps more, but you do that much at a minimum.

You deserve to lose if you won't bet to win.

I want to have the fewest number of things happen to win. If I'm in first, bet enough to win and don't worry about the other contestants.

[Ksyrup]

Now THAT is how to bet to from the lead. Even though 2nd crapped out, had he got it right, 1st place still wins by $1.

[RainMaker]

I never thought I'd care, but I can't stand Mayim as host. I'm sure she's very nice, but Ken is just better. Finding myself skipping the one's she hosts on the DVR more frequently.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Being on the show is still my #1 bucket list item. I can feel it slipping away. My knowledge base keeps increasing, but I have more of those tip-of-the-tongue blanks - stuff I know but can't seem to retrieve. I'm also getting much worse on pop culture questions. I was always bad on music because I'm partially deaf and don't listen to much. But now, if it's a movie or television show from the last ten years, I've probably never even heard of it.

Yeah, I'm not sure if I really want to try out again at this point because I do seem to be increasingly having those brief recall lapses. A lot of these involve actors and actresses; I can picture them, I know what the answer is, but I can't find the path to the name fast enough. It's not just people though -- the other night I couldn't come up with Mount Rushmore fast enough. "Ugh, that thing with the four presidential faces." I am also slower on the word puzzles (well, anagrams, answer within given word, etc. still pretty good with straight vocab).

I don't know to what extent this is me slipping, or the fact that I watch episodes in the evening after a day of work, interspersed with trivia study where I have already reviewed 700, 800, 900 facts.

At the same time, I am killing it in categories I wouldn't have before -- art, literature, even opera. I feel like I am getting more triple stumpers. So, I dunno. (Really though I fear that I would freeze up. My nerves in public arenas have never been good.)

[Kodos]

I'm sure I would freeze up. I'm not good when put on the spot. My mind short circuits. Terrible with names. Going on Jeopardy would be a ticket to embarrassment for me. Also, I would hate the little interview the contestant segment. Not a good storyteller.


I could probably do well on Wheel of Fortune.

[QuikSand]

Same here on the age-related effects.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

So she's been demoted to the celebrity sideshow for next season.

Was very much hoping this was so, and i had just missed the news. Alas...

‘Jeopardy!’: Mayim Bialik & Ken Jennings Close Deals To Return, Season 39 Hosting Schedule Revealed – Deadline

meh, taking the PC route here to try to avoid catastrophe, to unwarranted ends

[Ksyrup]

Agreed

[Ksyrup]

Together/forever

[larrymcg421]

Catching up, but just saw the July 12th episode, which had one of the worst FJ wagers and was surprised to not see it mentioned upthread.

Going into FJ

Champ: $20,000
P2: $10,000
P3: $3,200

P2 bets $3,000, apparently to cover P3 if they missed? Ridiculous, since Champ is never betting more than $1.

P2 gets it right for $13,000 and Champ (as expected) bets $1, missing to win with $19,999.

[Ksyrup]

Tonight's episode:

Spoiler

There's not much worse way to guarantee the champion a victory (and your own loss) than by screwing up the final answer of double jeopardy, getting ruled against, blurting out the right answer, and allowing the champion to answer correctly for $2K, thereby allowing him to guarantee he would more than double both of the other players. If the challenger gets it right, or no one answers it, the champ have been around $15,500 and the other two would have been at around $8,500 and either $10,500 or $12,500 going into final jeopardy. Instead, he waltzes to a win regardless of what happens in final jeopardy because she dropped back to $8,500 and he moved up to $17,500.

[JPhillips]

And screwing up because you gave the wrong first name. If she had just given the last name, which she knew, she would have gotten the 2K.

[Ksyrup]

Yes!

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

And screwing up because you gave the wrong first name. If she had just given the last name, which she knew, she would have gotten the 2K.

that was brutal, and 100% unforced