Global Warming is Bullsh!t!

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'm all for reducing emissions in general (not just carbon), sustainable energy, not dumping chemicals everyone, and generally being far more responsible wardens of our environment, but I'd like to get there in a much more civilized, responsible manner.

Do you think we're doing an adequate job of that right now? And if you were President of the US with an amenable Congress to doing what you want, what would you do?

SI

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

My point was more that there may likely well have been more than 1 article rejecting that notion, if not for the political atmosphere.

The point is there wasn't. But don't let logic stand in the way of some deluded conspiracy theories.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Actually, Occam's Razor for me is of course climate change is real, the earth was doing it for millennia before we ever came along, and well before the industrial revolution. The question is whether or not something we have done is particularly accelerating this trend, or whether we can do anything to reverse it.

I'm kind of with DT: I agree that it doesn't mean we shouldn't be better about the environment, reduce pollution, etc. I just don't think we need to go all Armageddon over this. I've felt that way about most of the environmental movement for most of my life: fear-mongering, Armageddon scenarios, expecting everyone to live like we did 1000 years ago (when life expectancy was pretty short and miserable, but they gloss over that part), but with a grain of truth. I'm all for reducing emissions in general (not just carbon), sustainable energy, not dumping chemicals everyone, and generally being far more responsible wardens of our environment, but I'd like to get there in a much more civilized, responsible manner.

FYI, the life expectancy 1000 years ago wasn't all that bad. It was likely within 10-15 years of the current life expectancy assuming you made it through toddler-hood. It was the very high infant mortality rate that pulled it down considerably and was not due to adults typically living to be only 25 or 30 years old.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

My point was more that there may likely well have been more than 1 article rejecting that notion, if not for the political atmosphere.

That seems unlikely, given that the author scanned a very large number of journals.

My point is that against this evidence (evidence in this case meaning the number of articles for vs. against), your assertion rests on a number of pretty weak "if" statements. The most straightforward explanation, as Blackadar suggests, is simply that climate change is real.

What you're trying to do now, Greg, is convince us that Tom Brady has always been nothing more than an average at best QB, but throughout his entire career circumstances have conspired to make him play at a HoF level. I mean, it's certainly possible, but it's pretty unlikely.

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

The question is whether or not something we have done is particularly accelerating this trend, or whether we can do anything to reverse it.

Is it really a question anymore? I agree that climate change is a natural event - literally. We have ice ages, hot ages, etc. But I'm yet to see any convincing evidence that confutes the fact that we seem to have sped things up considerably throughout the 20th century till now.

IMO we certainly can do things to help slow it, but we won't. Instead we'll debate it like we do right now until a point where it's too late, at which the people debating it right now will all be dead anyway.

I'm all for reducing emissions in general (not just carbon), sustainable energy, not dumping chemicals everyone, and generally being far more responsible wardens of our environment, but I'd like to get there in a much more civilized, responsible manner.

How? By more friendly debates that effectively lead to maintaining the status quo? Honestly, I hope my pessimism is misplaced, but I'm yet to see any convincing evidence that that's the case. If anyone's got some, please share.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

But I'm yet to see any convincing evidence that confutes the fact that we seem to have sped things up considerably throughout the 20th century till now.

Such as that all the predictions about how hot we'll be in 10, 20 years keep falling apart? They keep changing them to be smaller?

The only evidence I've seen in favor of this is a recent small rise.

Isn't the main concern not the actual temperature difference, but the amount of greenhouse gases rose at an unprecedented level compared to what the record appears to be show has happened before?

[gstelmack]

Anyway, this goes nowhere, I'll bow out again. I'm just rehashing things, I've explained my position, why I question things, and I've still not seen any place where my questions have been answered. I've been convinced through the evidence presented in these discussions that the earth has warmed a bit, just nothing to convince me that it's as catastrophic as others have said, how much of it is really caused by man, or how we can do anything other than the basic "treat the environment well" that we've been doing since before global warming became a hot topic that would have any measurable effect without essentially killing off our way of life.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Anyway, this goes nowhere, I'll bow out again. I'm just rehashing things, I've explained my position, why I question things, and I've still not seen any place where my questions have been answered. I've been convinced through the evidence presented in these discussions that the earth has warmed a bit, just nothing to convince me that it's as catastrophic as others have said, how much of it is really caused by man, or how we can do anything other than the basic "treat the environment well" that we've been doing since before global warming became a hot topic that would have any measurable effect without essentially killing off our way of life.

Translation = I want to actually see it happen before I will believe it will happen.

Of course, by then, it's already happened and therefore too late to mitigate or prevent.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Translation = I want to actually see it happen before I will believe it will happen.

Of course, by then, it's already happened and therefore too late to mitigate or prevent.

Well, that's fine, when one single prediction by these guys actually comes true, then I'll consider this more strongly.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Basically my viewpoint boils down to something like "we're a pimple on the back of a flea on the back of the animal that is the world." Mankind as a species is insignificant in the grand scheme of this planet. If we fuck up and exterminate ourselves the Earth will go on and eventually another species will arise. It may take a long time (a very long time in our puny conception), but the Earth will recover to an equilibrium.

I think this statement is accurate on in that we are insignificant in the historical context. However, I think in terms of the snapshot right now, our abilities to terraform the environment around us make us much more of a significant presence than, say, 7 billion birds or squirrels.

And I also think it's 100% true that if we wipe ourselves out, the planet will "recover". Heck, even if there's some doomsday scenario where we melt the polar ice caps and wipe out a lot of the livable space or, worse, a plague that wipes out all of humanity, the earth itself would hardly notice. Heck, one of my favorite scifi tropes is the idea that we're not the most advanced species to ever exist on the planet- just that we haven't discovered evidence of the previous one that wiped itself out. Anything short of the sun exploding, another planet smacking into Earth, something that burns off the atmosphere, etc- and the planet will shrug it off in 1000 or so years. What does the planet care if it has more or less water on its surface?

But I'm pretty sure that's not the goal people are talking about when they say "save the planet". I think it's with the implications that it's modern human livable and not just a fringe existence.

SI

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Well, that's fine, when one single prediction by these guys actually comes true, then I'll consider this more strongly.

We're on the same page. I backed out of this thread for the same reason you detailed above.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'm all for reducing emissions in general (not just carbon), sustainable energy, not dumping chemicals everyone, and generally being far more responsible wardens of our environment, but I'd like to get there in a much more civilized, responsible manner.

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Anyway, this goes nowhere, I'll bow out again. I'm just rehashing things, I've explained my position, why I question things, and I've still not seen any place where my questions have been answered. I've been convinced through the evidence presented in these discussions that the earth has warmed a bit, just nothing to convince me that it's as catastrophic as others have said, how much of it is really caused by man, or how we can do anything other than the basic "treat the environment well" that we've been doing since before global warming became a hot topic that would have any measurable effect without essentially killing off our way of life.

If you're going to bow out, you may not see this.

But I'm having a hard time wrapping my hands around the two bolded statements and I'd be curious about the explanation. As I asked before upthread a bit: how would you go about being "far more responsible wardens of our environment" in a way that doesn't "kill off our way of life"?

Rightly or wrongly, if I'm running a company and feel my highest responsibility is to the shareholders, I have to ask myself these questions:
* Why build or even research solar power when oil is cheaper?
* Why put carbon scrubbers on your coal plants when there's no profit benefit?
* Why design your oil pipeline to go around sensitive wetlands when it's the shortest, cheapest route?
* Why truck waste chemicals away to be treated when it's much cheaper to dump them in the nearby river?
* Why put in safety controls on your oil drilling platform as they cost money and the chances of an accident are very low?
* Why spend development money on increasing fuel efficiency when you could spend that money on making better seats or stereos or a faster engine?

What proposals that are out there would "kill off our way of life"? What way would you incentivize profit-only entities to be more responsible?

SI

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I think this statement is accurate on in that we are insignificant in the historical context. However, I think in terms of the snapshot right now, our abilities to terraform the environment around us make us much more of a significant presence than, say, 7 billion birds or squirrels.

And I also think it's 100% true that if we wipe ourselves out, the planet will "recover". Heck, even if there's some doomsday scenario where we melt the polar ice caps and wipe out a lot of the livable space or, worse, a plague that wipes out all of humanity, the earth itself would hardly notice. Heck, one of my favorite scifi tropes is the idea that we're not the most advanced species to ever exist on the planet- just that we haven't discovered evidence of the previous one that wiped itself out. Anything short of the sun exploding, another planet smacking into Earth, something that burns off the atmosphere, etc- and the planet will shrug it off in 1000 or so years. What does the planet care if it has more or less water on its surface?

But I'm pretty sure that's not the goal people are talking about when they say "save the planet". I think it's with the implications that it's modern human livable and not just a fringe existence.

SI

I agree with SI here. While there is plenty of evidence of an environmental change in progress the potential for nature to resolve the issue with or without our intervention remains high IMO. Not to say we shouldn't pay attention and move toward advances that will help sustain our life on Earth, but if a series of volcanoes go off and the world temp drops we shouldn't go around patting ourselves on our backs saying what a great job we did.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

Well, that's fine, when one single prediction by these guys actually comes true, then I'll consider this more strongly.

Climate Science Predictions Prove Too Conservative: Scientific American

Across two decades and thousands of pages of reports, the world's most authoritative voice on climate science has consistently understated the rate and intensity of climate change and the danger those impacts represent, say a growing number of studies on the topic.

The drastic decline of summer Arctic sea ice is one recent example: In the 2007 report, the IPCC concluded the Arctic would not lose its summer ice before 2070 at the earliest. But the ice pack has shrunk far faster than any scenario scientists felt policymakers should consider; now researchers say the region could see ice-free summers within 20 years.

Sea-level rise is another. In its 2001 report, the IPCC predicted an annual sea-level rise of less than 2 millimeters per year. But from 1993 through 2006, the oceans actually rose 3.3 millimeters per year, more than 50 percent above that projection.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Climate Science Predictions Prove Too Conservative: Scientific American

You're obviously a sheep that has fallen into line behind the liberal propaganda machine.

Unfortunately, some people will never believe something bad will happen until it actually happens. Regardless of evidence.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

You're obviously a sheep that has fallen into line behind the liberal propaganda machine.

Hey now, I like to think I'm an integral part of the liberal propaganda machine!

[Kodos]

Just sharing a Q&A I ran across.

YaleNews | Q&A: Climate change is already here, says ‘father of green chemistry’

[SFL Cat]

Let me know when there is 'consensus' on why 'the pause' has happened. In the meantime, sell your cars and ride bikes everywhere you planet destroying sinners.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Let me know when there is 'consensus' on why 'the pause' has happened. In the meantime, sell your cars and ride bikes everywhere you planet destroying sinners.

Well, you're in luck.

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Source.

You're welcome.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Let me know when there is 'consensus' on why 'the pause' has happened. In the meantime, sell your cars and ride bikes everywhere you planet destroying sinners.

And there's no pause at all, thank you very much.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Let me know when there is 'consensus' on why 'the pause' has happened. In the meantime, sell your cars and ride bikes everywhere you planet destroying sinners.

What 'pause'?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Well, you're in luck.



You're welcome.

Oh, so now 99.95% agreement is considered consensus?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

What 'pause'?

It was cold and snowing in Florida.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Oh, so now 99.95% agreement is considered consensus?

You are on fire recently. Love it!

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Oh, so now 99.95% agreement is considered consensus?

SI

[SFL Cat]

In that case, don't sell your cars, junk them. You wouldn't want that blood money anyhoo!

[miked]

Forget research and science, SFL reads the internet!

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by miked

Forget research and science, SFL reads the internet!

Obviously not, he didn't even read this thread.

[SFL Cat]

The environmental movement isn't about conservation or being a good steward of the planet, it is about control -- through regulations (sorry boys, no more coal mining or drilling for oil) and through redistribution of wealth (cap and trade, anyone?). Of course, the green elites always seem to do well for themselves as they 'save the planet.' Yep, the climate changes, it's been warmer than it is now, it's been colder than it is now -- and no SUVs were involved. Are we to blame for the latest cycle of warming? Maybe, but I don't think anything is settled yet. You're only as good as your models, and the ones out there have caused a lot of red-faces in the global warming ... er .... sorry, climate change crowd. In fact, didn't al gore say 2014 would be remembered as the year without snow? I notice he's been laying low lately...probably in hiding with his Nobel Prize, editing all the inconveniently wrong prognostications out of his 'Inconvenient Truth' film.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

The environmental movement isn't about conservation or being a good steward of the planet, it is about control -- through regulations (sorry boys, no more coal mining or drilling for oil) and through redistribution of wealth (cap and trade, anyone?). Of course, the green elites always seem to do well for themselves as they 'save the planet.' Yep, the climate changes, it's been warmer than it is now, it's been colder than it is now -- and no SUVs were involved. Are we to blame for the latest cycle of warming? Maybe, but I don't think anything is settled yet. You're only as good as your models, and the ones out there have caused a lot of red-faces in the global warming ... er .... sorry, climate change crowd. In fact, didn't al gore say 2014 would be remembered as the year without snow? I notice he's been laying low lately...probably in hiding with his Nobel Prize, editing all the inconveniently wrong prognostications out of his 'Inconvenient Truth' film.

You may not want to believe the data, but it's incontrovertible. You might as well be arguing about the earth being flat.

And all that snow weather in January and how it soooooo disproves climate change? Well, here's lesson #1 - weather does not equal climate.

http://www.weather.com/news/science/...trend-20140220

And where's that pause you discussed?

Global Temperature Report: December 2013 | Watts Up With That?

[SFL Cat]

Whatever dude...I happen to think what's going on with the nuclear furnace at the center of our solar system has a lot more to do with warming and cooling on this rock than anything we do. We're also overdue for another glacial period, which, in the past, has been bad news for every living thing on this planet, so maybe a little AGW isn't a bad thing.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by SFL Cat

Whatever dude...I happen to think what's going on with the nuclear furnace at the center of our solar system has a lot more to do with warming and cooling on this rock than anything we do. We're also overdue for another glacial period, which, in the past, has been bad news for every living thing on this planet, so maybe a little AGW isn't a bad thing.

Let's all give him a big hand, folks!

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Let's all give him a big hand, folks!

Can't you just be fair and balanced and give his layman's opinion the same weight as scientific data?

[Warhammer]

Blackadar - it's the 4th warmest year in what time frame?

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

You may not want to believe the data, but it's incontrovertible. You might as well be arguing about the earth being flat.

If he was alive 600 years ago he would have been arguing exactly that.

[SFL Cat]

I can also say with confidence that right now ... out there ... somewhere ... there is an alien taking a dump. It's incontrovertible.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Oh, so now 99.95% agreement is considered consensus?

Originally Posted by mckerney

Can't you just be fair and balanced and give his layman's opinion the same weight as scientific data?

You are currently my favorite poster!

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

We're all going to die......again!

UN scientists see grim future if no climate action - Yahoo News

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

We're all going to die......again!

UN scientists see grim future if no climate action - Yahoo News

[JPhillips]

It's 36 degrees at my house, therefore, global warming is bullshit.

[NobodyHere]

After this winter I could use some global warming.

[Fidatelo]

I would absolutely love some global fucking warming

[Kodos]

Your problem is that you live in freakin' Winnipeg!

[Ronnie Dobbs3]

Plot idea: 97% of the world's scientists contrive an environmental crisis, but are exposed by a plucky band of billionaires & oil companies.

— Scott Westerfeld (@ScottWesterfeld) March 21, 2014

[cartman]

You are getting it. Normally this time of year the temp is -17!

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

I would absolutely love some global fucking warming

Well this map doesn't address Canada, but you would probably fit in the same category as the NE US on this one

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Your problem is that you live in freakin' Winnipeg!

So true.

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well this map doesn't address Canada, but you would probably fit in the same category as the NE US on this one

Also very true.


We visited a friend's cottage on the weekend, the snow out there was waist deep. My 100 pound sheepdog, no small animal, could not walk where us humans hadn't first shoveled or otherwise blazed a trail. She would sink up to her neck and have to hop around in a circle and then just go back where she'd come from. Our kids basically had to tunnel around in any places that couldn't support their weight. This would be unusual (we don't often get quite this much snow) but acceptable in mid-January but is completely ridiculous for the end of March.

Today after work I'm gonna raise two aerosol cans to the sky and give a big FU salute to mother nature.

[Sun Tzu]

How the fuck can anyone honestly argue against this? I think the analogy of the "world is flat" is dead on, here.

[PilotMan]

The funny thing is that most of Europe has had a very tame winter. So our cold isn't very representative of the winter the world over.

[Sun Tzu]

"Global warming is bullshit. I heard that it rained over in St. Louis yesterday!"

"I know for fact that God exists, because yesterday morning I was in a rush, and I got all green lights on the way to work!"