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View Poll Results: Who will take the White House? | |||
Obama | 151 | 68.95% | |
McCain | 63 | 28.77% | |
Surprise? (Maybe Mr. Trout?) | 5 | 2.28% | |
Voters: 219. You may not vote on this poll |
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Thread Tools |
10-29-2008, 11:47 AM | #8751 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
I said the 'tightening' race. I feel that was accurate. I have no doubt that Obama supporters will be chewing their nails on election night despite their assuring posts that it's all over. |
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10-29-2008, 11:48 AM | #8752 |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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10-29-2008, 11:48 AM | #8753 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Just like Missouri fans were chewing their nails when Colorado came to town. Sure, you were a double-digit favorite, but you never know until the teams get out there and PLAY.
__________________
My listening habits |
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10-29-2008, 11:49 AM | #8754 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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Anyone want to guess what Obama's 30-minute commercial tonight will be?
I'm thinking Obama comes on and says: "So, I bought this airtime tonight to save you from another 30 minutes of Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. No, no need to thank me. Just remember to go out and vote next Tuesday. And instead of Buck & McCarver, we'll just run YouTube videos of McCain saying stupid things for 30 minutes." |
10-29-2008, 11:52 AM | #8755 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Prairie du Sac, WI
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Quote:
I told you, I don't know a damn thing about polling weights and all that. I guess you must, but I don't claim I do. I guess I don't see the plausibility of a massive case of error on the part of all pollsters. It's not so much that they all have Obama leading, but it's by how much they have him leading electoral vote wise. I guess national trackers may indicate trends some states may follow but like somebody said earlier, I don't see enough state races improving for McCain for him to pull it off. |
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10-29-2008, 11:55 AM | #8756 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
No, I just have a problem with people that would rather lump people into one party or another without any middle ground. I have said that I'm voting McCain, but that doesn't mean I agree with much of the religions right or the gun toters. I'm not sure why you chose to go there. There are other alternatives. |
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10-29-2008, 11:57 AM | #8757 | ||
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
I'm guessing you haven't seen McCain's comment on that situation. He's evidently appealing to the baseball hardcores who don't want their World Series delayed. Someone should tell him that no one watches baseball anymore. Quote:
Breitbart.tv » McCain Mocks Obama for Delaying World Series Game for ‘Infomercial’ |
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10-29-2008, 12:01 PM | #8758 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: The DMV
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Quote:
That is a good article, but it suggests that the inaccuracy of the polling may not be in McCain's favor. The polls in which McCain is close presuppose 1 of 2 things: 1. Solid republican voters will turn out in high numbers 2. Survey weighting is set to 2004 election demographics Both suppositions are certainly possible, but there are strong arguments against both from happening (mentioned earlier in the thread, possibly by me). I'm not presumptuous enough to dismiss the possibilities 1 and/or 2 of happening. It is possible that the Obama youth vote may be over-estimated and/or the republican base is being under-estimated. But, in any case, it is very reasonable to say that the demographics in 2008 won't look like 2004 since the basic dynamics of the race (e.g, race with incumbency vs race with open seat, candidates on both sides that appeal to different demographics relative to the candidates in 2004, etc) are different. To your point about "right" weighting vs "wrong" weighting of the polls. Sure, some will be right some will be wrong. But we won't know that until after the election (ironically, with the use of another poll). We can't make that judgment now. |
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10-29-2008, 12:01 PM | #8759 | |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Boston, MA
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Quote:
I'm not an Obama supporter, but a bettor. If you'd like to wager with me (for any stakes, friendly or financial) on the closeness of this election I would be happy to do so. |
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10-29-2008, 12:01 PM | #8760 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Prairie du Sac, WI
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Quote:
Don't take things so god damned personal. Like you said, it was a one liner. I guess I'm used to debating with my dad (a McCain supporter). We make the most ridiculous assertions about each other's views that we know aren't true. It's all light hearted. Sometimes a lot of you all in here could stand to lighten up a bit when talking politics. |
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10-29-2008, 12:03 PM | #8761 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
And I agree (though I didn't realize that I was required to post only articles that favor McCain ). It's something to discuss and I think there's merit to both arguments. |
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10-29-2008, 12:07 PM | #8762 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
I'd have to get odds on that bet. As I've stated repeatedly over the last week, I do still believe that Obama holds a slim lead. |
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10-29-2008, 12:10 PM | #8763 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
Out of thsoe states, I'd toss Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado in Obama's bin at this point. All of the rest are still in play. I'd also add that even the Obama campaign privately believes Pennsylvania to be a 2-3 point race, so I'd include that in the list of states still in play. |
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10-29-2008, 12:12 PM | #8764 | ||
Death Herald
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas
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Quote:
And McCain missed the memo from Fox that the game wasn't delayed, they just sold the airtime instead of showing a pregame show: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmi..._baseball.html Quote:
__________________
Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint |
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10-29-2008, 12:16 PM | #8765 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Boston, MA
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10-29-2008, 12:16 PM | #8766 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
Choose your poison: 30 minutes of Joe Buck or 30 minutes of Barack Obama I honestly think I'd choose Obama. Buck is TERRIBLE. |
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10-29-2008, 12:17 PM | #8767 | ||
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC
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Quote:
Let me back up a couple of steps here. Where is the assertion that Obama wants to talk to the Supreme Council? Here is what I can verify for certain: Quote:
from: http://origin.barackobama.com/issues...n_policy/#iran
__________________
Sixteen Colors ANSI/ASCII Art Archive "...the better half of the Moores..." -cthomer5000 Last edited by lordscarlet : 10-29-2008 at 12:19 PM. Reason: Added source |
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10-29-2008, 12:27 PM | #8768 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
I totally agree with the first bullet point. As for your question about the supreme council, the above doesn't even addres WHO they will talk with. Your point is valid that he is very general in this information. With that said, Obama's results won't be any different than Bush in the above scenario. I suppose he can argue that it's different in approach, but he's fooling himself if he thinks that will end in anything different (Iran is continuing its troubling behavior and the UN and Bush continue to isolate Iran along with sanctions). There won't be any progress. Last edited by Mizzou B-ball fan : 10-29-2008 at 12:28 PM. |
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10-29-2008, 12:30 PM | #8769 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Chicagoland
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Quote:
Iowa + Nevada + Colorado = 21 EVs, for a swing of 42 EVs, giving Obama the election unless McCain picks off a Kerry state. Given the way election results are going to be reported, the first two litmus tests will probably be Virginia & Florida. If Obama takes Virginia, it'll look very dire for McCain. If Obama takes Florida, it's all over and we can all go to be early. If, in the midst of those two, Obama manages to take North Carolina, it's probably a safe assumption that he's got the race. |
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10-29-2008, 12:33 PM | #8770 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Land O Lakes FL
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Quote:
Yes. I have gone from "Bipartisanship has no chance of working in our political system" to "Bipartisanship has no fucking chance of working because both sides will fight each other over the color of the sky even though the true differences between them is the true difference between baby blue and sky blue" As long as the losers in this election don't give me some crap about "looking forward to working with" the winners, I will be happy. In fact, the first Dem who says "I intend to stick it to Republicans" or the first Republican who says "Fuck the Dems. agenda" will have the lead for my vote in the next election.
__________________
"The blind soldier fought for me in this war. The least I can do now is fight for him. I have eyes. He hasn’t. I have a voice on the radio, he hasn’t. I was born a white man. And until a colored man is a full citizen, like me, I haven’t the leisure to enjoy the freedom that colored man risked his life to maintain for me. I don’t own what I have until he owns an equal share of it. Until somebody beats me and blinds me, I am in his debt."- Orson Welles August 11, 1946 |
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10-29-2008, 12:34 PM | #8771 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
I really hope that the drama drags on a bit through Nevada. I've somewhat enjoyed the late night watching of the last two elections. It's like a Super Bowl. I'm guessing the major news channels are hoping for the same as they'll lose viewers pretty quickly if it is over early. |
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10-29-2008, 12:41 PM | #8772 | |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2005
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Quote:
"Will the Democrats get 60 Senate seats?" might be what the networks have to turn to. I wonder what time polls close in Alaska, though that race might not be close now that Stevens has been found guilty. |
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10-29-2008, 12:48 PM | #8773 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC
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Quote:
And I'm not the one claiming he's going to talk to the Supreme Council, that was you. I was hoping you would back it up with some sort of reference.
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Sixteen Colors ANSI/ASCII Art Archive "...the better half of the Moores..." -cthomer5000 |
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10-29-2008, 12:54 PM | #8774 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Quote:
Given the demographics it's very unlikely that NV will be a difference maker. If Obama wins there he's likely won in NM and CO which likely gives him the election. Personally I think it'll be a early night. If PA goes to Obama it's very difficult to craft a scenario where McCain wins.
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
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10-29-2008, 12:56 PM | #8775 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
I'd agree with that. As the Obama campaign has said, it's a close race in PA right now and it's very important that they win it. The avenues for a possible win open up for McCain if he can win there. |
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10-29-2008, 12:58 PM | #8776 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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Bill O'Reilly has a map MBBF might approve of:
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To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.. - Mr. Rogers |
10-29-2008, 01:00 PM | #8777 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
I made that assumption based on the fact that he said he wanted to go directly to the top. After your post from Obama's website, it's quite clear that even he hasn't laid out exactly who he'll be talking to, which is concerning in its own right. |
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10-29-2008, 01:02 PM | #8778 |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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And as I stated yesterday, I'm not sure why I'd approve of a map that's not based in reality. I believe that map is just as unreliable as some of the polls giving Obama a 7+ point lead in the national election numbers. But I guess it's easier to paint me as being an extremist than to actually discuss the topic at hand. |
10-29-2008, 01:04 PM | #8779 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
The polling numbers would show it to be a bad move. His numbers have steadily declined since that information was released. Confidence is always a better motivator than fear in an election. It was a misstep if they thought otherwise. |
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10-29-2008, 01:10 PM | #8780 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
Show me the Pennsylvania polling showing his numbers declining since that leak came out 2 weeks ago.
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10-29-2008, 01:11 PM | #8781 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
maybe this has been discussed to death while i was at lunch, but to me, the national tracking polls are largely worthless. it's the state-polling that matters, and McCain hasn't meaningfully closed the gap (in anything more than a "statistical noise" sense) in multiple battleground states. |
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10-29-2008, 01:14 PM | #8782 |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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10-29-2008, 01:14 PM | #8783 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Anybody like to discuss Palin as the face of the GOP going forward (if McCain loses)? Is this even viable, or is it a pipe dream perpetuated by Palin's people?
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10-29-2008, 01:16 PM | #8784 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Washington, DC
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Quote:
Wow. So, on one hand you claim the Supreme Council does not run the country, but on the other you interpret "straight to the top" to mean the Supreme Council. You can't have it both ways.
__________________
Sixteen Colors ANSI/ASCII Art Archive "...the better half of the Moores..." -cthomer5000 |
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10-29-2008, 01:16 PM | #8785 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
linky? 2-3pts? Really? Even though all the state polls have it at high single-digits? (down from low double-digits admittedly) i'd like to see where you got that info |
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10-29-2008, 01:17 PM | #8786 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
I would argue that, again, the national polling is irrelevant at this point and tightening of it to be expected during the final week of any election. It certainly doesn't have anything to do with any perceived tightening of the race in PA, because according to all released state polls up to now, that race has been static and for Obama for weeks. You would think that the PA poll would have some kind of effect in, of all places, PA, and not nationwide.
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My listening habits Last edited by Butter : 10-29-2008 at 01:18 PM. |
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10-29-2008, 01:17 PM | #8787 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
Add Biden to that mix. The choice is largely Dumb and Dumber if you're choosing between Palin and Biden. |
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10-29-2008, 01:17 PM | #8788 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Newburgh, NY
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But the two most respectable national trackers aren't really showing a tightening either. Rasmussen and Gallup have shown both guys very stable for nearly a month.
Rasmussen in October McCain 44-47 Obama 50-52 Gallup Traditional since October 8 McCain 44-47 Obama 49-51 Gallup Expanded since October 8 McCain 43-45 Obama 50-53 All of the variance has been within the margin of error.
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10-29-2008, 01:19 PM | #8789 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
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10-29-2008, 01:19 PM | #8790 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Dayton, OH
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Quote:
I don't think there have been any national news articles arguing that if Obama loses, Joe Biden will become the face of the Democratic party. So I don't think that's pertinent.
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10-29-2008, 01:21 PM | #8791 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
They'll be too busy fending off attacks from the McCain people and Republican columnists for a bit before thinking about being the face of the party. We'll see what happens when the Civil War is concluded and which side wins.
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10-29-2008, 01:23 PM | #8792 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
a) i don't think anybody's talking about Biden as the future of the democratic party b) for you to even insinuate that Biden is as intellectually-stunted and ill-informed as Palin is just sheer lunacy. Really I could pull out numerous examples to counter this, but it's a waste of time, because if you honestly believe that then no amount of examples will convince you, your head is buried in the sand. The guy has been a senior Senator for years, has authored landmark legislation and bills, and has been a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Comparing his intellect to Palin's intellect is like saying a tricycle could beat a Ferrari in a drag-race. |
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10-29-2008, 01:29 PM | #8793 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
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Quote:
Wow - I hope not. Talk about giving yourself over to the lunatic-fringe. |
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10-29-2008, 01:30 PM | #8794 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Palin becoming the face of the Republicans would be awesome. There is no way in hell she could ever win the Presidency.
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10-29-2008, 01:32 PM | #8795 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
One other thing regarding the weights being used in the Pennsylvania polls. Arguably, the Democrats had their best turnouts in recent memory in 2006 when they did extremely well. In that election, 43% of the voters were Democrats and 38% were Republicans, giving them a 5% advantage. In the 2004 election, the Democrats held a 2 point advantage. The current polls showing 11-13 point leads for Obama are giving the Democrats anywhere from a 12-19 point advantage in voting turnout. Is it any wonder why the polls show one thing while the Obama camp quitely says it's a close race? There's some serious issues with the polling in that state. Those weights wouldn't even pass a 'six sigma' test given past voter turnout results in Pennsylvania. |
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10-29-2008, 01:33 PM | #8796 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Stuck in Yinzerville, PA
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Quote:
We cant help that we are rednecks who don't know how and where to vote properly! |
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10-29-2008, 01:37 PM | #8797 |
General Manager
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Location: Kansas City, MO
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10-29-2008, 01:38 PM | #8798 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Decatur, GA
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Quote:
Being the "face of your party" doesn't mean she's going to be the Presidential nominee. I mean Ted Kennedy was the face of the Democratic Party for a long while, but aside from 1980 never got close to the Democratic nomination.
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10-29-2008, 01:42 PM | #8799 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Kansas City, MO
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Quote:
Agreed. I see her playing a role in future elections regardless of this election's results much the same as Rudy Giuliani. She'll be more of a rah-rah type to keep the religious right fired up when elections come around. She obviously has the charisma and appeal to pull votes. McCain would be getting hammered right now without her. |
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10-29-2008, 01:45 PM | #8800 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2002
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The more interesting fight IMO is between her and Huckabee given that they have the same power base.
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