Invasion of Ukraine

[Ksyrup]

Of course it is. I've seen it in different ways - one is just laughing it off with jokes about global warming when it snows in April, for instance. The other is some acceptance that it exists but now questioning whether it's truly man-made as opposed to a natural cycle and that we're too focused on a short-term view to see the bigger picture.

The interesting thing about this topic is this appears to be where the anti-science movement started within conservative circles. At least the "modern" anti-science movement of the past 20+ years.

[cuervo72]

I always like this old visualization.

xkcd: Earth Temperature Timeline

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

I honestly didn't realize this was something regular people debated anymore. I thought it was more of a flat earther/Sandy Hook truther kind of thing.

It's really not. Even the oil companies admit it now. And hidden documents have shown they've known about it privately for decades.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

There are reports saying that chemical weapons have been used in Mariupol.

Also reports that 21,000 civilian deaths there. Nothing confirmed but wow.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Of course it is. I've seen it in different ways - one is just laughing it off with jokes about global warming when it snows in April, for instance. The other is some acceptance that it exists but now questioning whether it's truly man-made as opposed to a natural cycle and that we're too focused on a short-term view to see the bigger picture.

The interesting thing about this topic is this appears to be where the anti-science movement started within conservative circles. At least the "modern" anti-science movement of the past 20+ years.

It's easy to associate those who are not part of your perceived consensus with all manners of bogeymen.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

I always like this old visualization.

xkcd: Earth Temperature Timeline

That is a pretty amazing timeline.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Yes, but if you claim the scientific peer-review process that reaches that consensus is completely flawed than no percentage will change your mind.

EDIT: Though it's more than a smidge disingenuous to complain when your singular source is being held to a base level of scrutiny but then basically say "every other source out there is flawed because the whole process is flawed". There's definitely no hypocrisy there.

SI

I don't want to get into this with every individual here, so I'll try and keep a limit on how I respond. It is not my intent to belabor this.

The goal of peer-review is not to reach consensus. The goal to point out issues with individual contributions to the body of science.

The process itself works, but flaws would be more along the lines of specific implementation issues. You'll probably hate this, but I think the East Anglia emails show this quite clearly - that's when I started to think that "consensus" didn't mean much here.

As for Koonin, this is one book that is aimed more at people who aren't experts in the field. I found it insightful. That doesn't mean I subscribe to everything in it, or his politics, or his religion. The only mention he makes of politics is that he's very much left of center.

It's not one scientist who dissents, and I'm all in. It's the notion of consensus that troubles me. At one point not that long ago, scientific consensus was that the earth was flat. Fortunately for our understanding of the universe, there was dissent and eventually it reached a point where those who stuck with the flat-earth model couldn't explain phenomena that other scientists could explain.

https://clintel.nl/wp-content/upload...s-briefing.pdf

Now you can look at the names, pick one or more, I'm sure (I haven't) and connect one or more to energy company employees (it would surprise me if there weren't quite a few) or conservatives or liberals or whatnot. Maybe you could even find a Sandy Hook Truther in there, though that one seems dumb enough that perhaps not. Koonin isn't even on this list. I recognize a few - Willie Soon is probably the most controversial right now. If you want to pick one to attach to bogeymen, you could start there.

A lot is made of the "97% consensus" among scientists. But that's misleading. Here's an attempt to figure out where that comes from:

The 52% ‘consensus’ | Climate Etc.

It heavily relies on a survey from American Meteorological Society membership.

You can control discussion by avoiding the discussion itself and trying to isolate people who might not agree. I think there's evidence to support the theory that increases in CO2 increases global temperature. I also think there's evidence CO2 levels are increasing as the result of fossil fuel burning, and it's not possible to change that without enormous intervention.

But what does that mean with regard to the climate? How much of what we observe has to do with fossil fuel burning and how much is just part of the climate change that's gone on for billions of years? I don't think there's a real consensus there. What struck me about Koonin's book was that he summarized all of this in a way that worked for me. It obviously won't work for everyone. It doesn't mean this book contains answers, like religious people would say about texts like the Bible.

It's just a concise reference for me, and I included mention of it as background if any of you were interested in a summary of why what many consider a consensus is misleading.

Again, I will try and limit what I write about this tangent to the Ukraine discussion, but it's difficult not to respond to misleading assessments of my character.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

As for Koonin, this is one book that is aimed more at people who aren't experts in the field.

I would hope so since he himself is not an expert in the field.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It's not one scientist who dissents, and I'm all in. It's the notion of consensus that troubles me. At one point not that long ago, scientific consensus was that the earth was flat. Fortunately for our understanding of the universe, there was dissent and eventually it reached a point where those who stuck with the flat-earth model couldn't explain phenomena that other scientists could explain.

https://clintel.nl/wp-content/upload...s-briefing.pdf

Now you can look at the names, pick one or more, I'm sure (I haven't) and connect one or more to energy company employees (it would surprise me if there weren't quite a few) or conservatives or liberals or whatnot. Maybe you could even find a Sandy Hook Truther in there, though that one seems dumb enough that perhaps not. Koonin isn't even on this list. I recognize a few - Willie Soon is probably the most controversial right now. If you want to pick one to attach to bogeymen, you could start there.

Challenge accepted. I researched the first six people listed as ambassadors -

IVAR GIAEVER - Different field.

PROFESSOR GUUS BERKHOUT - Works for oil and gas industry.

DR. CORNELIS LE PAIR - Couldn't find much about him. He has written two papers about wind energy. But an image on his website did lead me down a Zwarte Piet controversy rabbit hole.

PROFESSOR REYNALD DU BERGER - Seismologist, no published works in climate.

TERRY DUNLEAVY - A politician and wine entreprenuer. LMAO

VIV FORBES - Worked for several coal companies



Then I perused the list and found these people who are also included. I didn't add anything here. This is strictly from the text of the website!


Don Andersen, Retired Teacher, Programmer

Maxwell Charles S. Beck, lifetime of experience in law, retired Magistrate and Coroner on the bench

Eric Daniel, Retired IT Consultant

Erl Happ, Managing Director at Happs

Campbell Rankine, Barrister and Solicitor

Darren Speirs, Independent Business Owner, Rangeland NRM Consultants

John Warnock, Astro Economist

P.C. Wilson, Former Journalist with the A.B.C. Queensland

Philip Wood, Qualified Lawyer in four Jurisdictions (Australia, New York, UK and
Hong Kong), CEO of two ASX-listed Companies operating in the Mining and Minerals
Processing Fields

Drieu Godefridi PhD, Law, Author of several books


I'm sorry, but this is an insanely ridiculous source for you to have used. It is completely misleading as to the point you were trying to make about scientific consensus.

[thesloppy]

Astro Economist

[flere-imsaho]

A full takedown can be found here: Letter signed by “500 scientists” relies on inaccurate claims about climate science – Climate Feedback

Guus Berkhout, who appears to be the lead of this effort, has worked full-time or on a consulting basis for oil & gas companies, since 1964, per his wikipedia page.

You talk about bias a lot, Jim. Do we honestly believe that someone who has worked for a particular industry for almost 60 years carries no bias related to that industry?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Challenge accepted. I researched the first six people listed as ambassadors -

I'm sorry, but this is an insanely ridiculous source for you to have used. It is completely misleading as to the point you were trying to make about scientific consensus.

Oh, it was hardly a challenge. It was security in the knowledge that it's not the message when it comes to challenging the notion of consensus, it's in defining the messenger - finding something that disqualifies him from the club.

What is an expert when it comes to a complex discipline made up of so many branches of science? Some would even dismiss Koonin, because he's more from the physics side. I would probably give you the wine guy/politician, though those two concepts don't necessarily disqualify someone who has an education, but the fact that someone worked for coal companies and is instantly discredited illustrates my point perfectly. When technology improved, the successful village blacksmith probably found gainful employment in a related field soon enough. Every energy company operates on the principle that technology will improve in time.

The notion of consensus requires someone to decide who is included. I can't decide that, but in order to get to "settled", you have to make that decision.

An interesting part of this was the survey itself. As I read about this, it seems that what's important to the media is ensuring that only people who support the notion that there's a crisis (I think there's agreement that you can't dismiss the underlying science that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and can affect the climate) are given a voice.

[Brian Swartz]

Started a new thread here: Climate Change, 2022 Edition - Front Office Football Central.

I suggest as humbly as I can that climate change get discussed there, and Ukraine gets discussed here, and that way people can decide which compendium of blathering they want to follow, or both, or neither.

[Solecismic]

A good idea. So... the ICC's chief prosecutor has determined that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine. Not that Putin will happily turn himself in, but will this change the response?

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Challenge accepted. I researched the first six people listed as ambassadors -

IVAR GIAEVER - Different field.

PROFESSOR GUUS BERKHOUT - Works for oil and gas industry.

DR. CORNELIS LE PAIR - Couldn't find much about him. He has written two papers about wind energy. But an image on his website did lead me down a Zwarte Piet controversy rabbit hole.

PROFESSOR REYNALD DU BERGER - Seismologist, no published works in climate.

TERRY DUNLEAVY - A politician and wine entreprenuer. LMAO

VIV FORBES - Worked for several coal companies



Then I perused the list and found these people who are also included. I didn't add anything here. This is strictly from the text of the website!


Don Andersen, Retired Teacher, Programmer

Maxwell Charles S. Beck, lifetime of experience in law, retired Magistrate and Coroner on the bench

Eric Daniel, Retired IT Consultant

Erl Happ, Managing Director at Happs

Campbell Rankine, Barrister and Solicitor

Darren Speirs, Independent Business Owner, Rangeland NRM Consultants

John Warnock, Astro Economist

P.C. Wilson, Former Journalist with the A.B.C. Queensland

Philip Wood, Qualified Lawyer in four Jurisdictions (Australia, New York, UK and
Hong Kong), CEO of two ASX-listed Companies operating in the Mining and Minerals
Processing Fields

Drieu Godefridi PhD, Law, Author of several books


I'm sorry, but this is an insanely ridiculous source for you to have used. It is completely misleading as to the point you were trying to make about scientific consensus.

No pediatricians with 50 years of experience and 15,000 hours of YouTube research?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

A good idea. So... the ICC's chief prosecutor has determined that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine. Not that Putin will happily turn himself in, but will this change the response?

You would think having Biden labeling it a genocide would.

[JPhillips]

Ukraine is claiming they hit the Russian Black Sea fleet command ship with two Neptune missiles.

[Mota]

If there's a 15 mile convoy of Russian vehicles heading East, wouldn't this be super easy to hit with a series of drones? Or a straffing run of planes. Literally drive in a straight line and drop bombs on them. You could have a gunner manning a plane that wouldn't even have to aim, just point at the road and keep flying in a straight line.

I know that Russia has control of the skies, so perhaps that's why they can't do it.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Ukraine is claiming they hit the Russian Black Sea fleet command ship with two Neptune missiles.

More Ukrainians lies!

According to Mother Russia the ammunition storage spontaneously caught fire, probably due to climate change.

[RainMaker]

It sounds like it is the Moskva, which is the crown jewel of their fleet. Crew of over 500.

[RainMaker]

Hopefully people remember all those right-wingers who propped Putin up over the years as a defender of Christianity and family values. This is who him and his military are.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61071243

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

More Ukrainians lies!

According to Mother Russia the ammunition storage spontaneously caught fire ...

A defective torpedo spontaneously cooked off on the Kursk. So there is precedence.

An official investigation concluded that when the crew loaded a dummy 65–76 "Kit" torpedo, a faulty weld in its casing leaked high-test peroxide (HTP) inside the torpedo tube, initiating a catalytic explosion.[1] The explosion blew off both the inner and outer tube doors, ignited a fire, destroyed the bulkhead between the first and second compartments, damaged the control room in the second compartment, and incapacitated or killed the torpedo room and control-room crew. The torpedo manufacturer challenged this hypothesis, insisting that its design would prevent the kind of event described. Two minutes and fifteen seconds later, another five to seven torpedo warheads exploded.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Mota

If there's a 15 mile convoy of Russian vehicles heading East, wouldn't this be super easy to hit with a series of drones? Or a straffing run of planes. Literally drive in a straight line and drop bombs on them. You could have a gunner manning a plane that wouldn't even have to aim, just point at the road and keep flying in a straight line.

I know that Russia has control of the skies, so perhaps that's why they can't do it.

A nice A-10 squadron would do wonders ...

[GrantDawg]

This is a fascinating breakdown of how the attack on the Moskva likely occurred and how significant it was.

Some thoughts on the apparent sinking of the Russian Black Sea flagship Moskva: if confirmed, it's likely to go down in history as one of the most audaciously successful attacks in modern naval history. /1 pic.twitter.com/hWlLdbNMxP

— ChrisO (@ChrisO_wiki) April 14, 2022

[Edward64]

The new Russian offensive in the Donbas region has started.

Here's hoping the Ukrainians are as successful as they were fighting the Russians in Kyiv area.

[NobodyHere]

Russia appears to confuse 'The Sims' for SIM cards in possible staged assassination attempt

Well this is a new one.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Russia appears to confuse 'The Sims' for SIM cards in possible staged assassination attempt

Well this is a new one.

The assassination plan was to remove the ladder from his swimming pool once he was in it.

[scott99]

[Edward64]

I don't like this. Seems like a cheap shot to send pictures of dead Russian soldiers back to their families. Identify, notify families (without pics) and store them as best as possible, yes. Sending pics back ... IMO they are losing the high ground here.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/202...er-pkg-vpx.cnn

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I don't like this. Seems like a cheap shot to send pictures of dead Russian soldiers back to their families. Identify, notify families (without pics) and store them as best as possible, yes. Sending pics back ... IMO they are losing the high ground here.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/202...er-pkg-vpx.cnn

I can't condone this either, as I see it as an unnecessary escalation, and extremely poor judgement. But when you allow your soldiers to murder, rape and torture innocent civilians, promise to allow evacuation corridors, only to then shell convoys trying to leave. Not to mention shelling hospitals other non-military targets on purpose, you (meaning Russia) are kind of getting what you have been asking for.

Doesn't make it right, in fact it is horrible, but I understand why it is happening. Not to mention the fact that Russia has been nowhere near truthful with their population on this invasion from day 1.

[Flasch186]

Its their attempt to get past the falsehood being propagated on the Russian Public that there isn't a war, they're not losing soldiers and that everything is going well. Is it couth? No. But they're trying to cut through the BS fog that the Authoritarian state is promoting so that the public will perhaps get enough cojones to stand up and stop this war from the inside.

ZERO chance of them losing the high ground with what has been going on without a monumental misstep that I don't see them making and this certainly isn't it unless you're a FOX News apologist and subscriber.

[flere-imsaho]

Ukraine with this action may have descended from the summit of Everest to the Hillary Step, but Russia are currently in the Challenger Deep.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Its their attempt to get past the falsehood being propagated on the Russian Public that there isn't a war, they're not losing soldiers and that everything is going well. Is it couth? No. But they're trying to cut through the BS fog that the Authoritarian state is promoting so that the public will perhaps get enough cojones to stand up and stop this war from the inside.

ZERO chance of them losing the high ground with what has been going on without a monumental misstep that I don't see them making and this certainly isn't it unless you're a FOX News apologist and subscriber.

They can easily do same without the pics. Instead of sending pics of dead soldiers to their family, send out list to them and send pics of personal stuff. But pics of dead with presumable battle wounds is not cool IMO.

And if families still don’t believe, ask them if they want the pics of their loved ones.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Edward64

They can easily do same without the pics. Instead of sending pics of dead soldiers to their family, send out list to them and send pics of personal stuff. But pics of dead with presumable battle wounds is not cool IMO.

And if families still don’t believe, ask them if they want the pics of their loved ones.

Fuck that. I'm glad they do it.

The Russians have been raping children as young as 5/6.

They are razing cities to nothing and killing civilians indiscriminately.

They are threatening nuclear retaliation and invading other sovereign countries without merit.

They deserve to be shocked into reality.

[BYU 14]

I find this an interesting development
Putin says Sweden and Finland joining NATO and breaking with decades of neutrality is fine after all. ‘No problems’

Either gamesmanship by Putin, or based on what the is quoted from Sweden in the article, he is comfortable that neither Finland or Sweden will allow NATO forces into their countries, most likely based on behind the scenes assurances.

[Brian Swartz]

Vladimir Putin is doing those things. Others in the Russian government are doing those things. Most Russians are not doing those things. Among those not doing them are the families of dead soldiers.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I find this an interesting development
Putin says Sweden and Finland joining NATO and breaking with decades of neutrality is fine after all. ‘No problems’

Either gamesmanship by Putin, or based on what the is quoted from Sweden in the article, he is comfortable that neither Finland or Sweden will allow NATO forces into their countries, most likely based on behind the scenes assurances.

I think Russia is just Putin us on.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I find this an interesting development
Putin says Sweden and Finland joining NATO and breaking with decades of neutrality is fine after all. ‘No problems’

Either gamesmanship by Putin, or based on what the is quoted from Sweden in the article, he is comfortable that neither Finland or Sweden will allow NATO forces into their countries, most likely based on behind the scenes assurances.

I think he know he's in a position where he can't realistically respond if they choose to join NATO so he's pushing the issue further out by saying, "while it's ok if they join NATO, if NATA were to build a military presence there it becomes a problem".

You really can't draw a hard line on things like this when you've reached the point that you're sending conscripts into battle with little to no training. It's going to take years for Russia to rebuild its military and economy after this. He's hoping they're in better position to respond to a NATO "threat" at point down the line.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I think he know he's in a position where he can't realistically respond if they choose to join NATO so he's pushing the issue further out by saying, "while it's ok if they join NATO, if NATA were to build a military presence there it becomes a problem".

You really can't draw a hard line on things like this when you've reached the point that you're sending conscripts into battle with little to no training. It's going to take years for Russia to rebuild its military and economy after this. He's hoping they're in better position to respond to a NATO "threat" at point down the line.

Definitely feels like this is a factor, because if things were going better in Ukraine, I don't feel we would be getting the same response.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I find this an interesting development
Putin says Sweden and Finland joining NATO and breaking with decades of neutrality is fine after all. ‘No problems’

Either gamesmanship by Putin, or based on what the is quoted from Sweden in the article, he is comfortable that neither Finland or Sweden will allow NATO forces into their countries, most likely based on behind the scenes assurances.

That is a good compromise for now .. just as long as nothing is written on paper. Finland and Sweden gets their reassurances of NATO support if they are attacked and there will inevitably be some sort of "NATO scope creep" into those countries over the next couple decades (e.g. Putin does something antagonistic again somewhere).

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I think Russia is just Putin us on.

Putin on a Ritz

[GrantDawg]

There is word out of Russia that Putin might have secretly had abdominal surgery a couple of weeks ago. The rumor is cancer. He has recently been seen in public, and he didn't look great. It makes you wonder who his successor is what is Russia like without Putin?

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

There is word out of Russia that Putin might have secretly had abdominal surgery a couple of weeks ago. The rumor is cancer. He has recently been seen in public, and he didn't look great. It makes you wonder who his successor is what is Russia like without Putin?

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

that's really scary. As if he needed more reason to take everyone out.

[RainMaker]

It definitely appears like something is wrong with him based kn recent videos.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Russia appears to confuse 'The Sims' for SIM cards in possible staged assassination attempt

Well this is a new one.

Originally Posted by Atocep

The assassination plan was to remove the ladder from his swimming pool once he was in it.

This didn't get enough love. Well done, sir!

[MIJB#19]

I'm confused about how the Ukraine has given the International Criminal Court jurisdiction during this time of war, yet at the same time they're taking justice in their own hands.

[Edward64]

Haven't been following too much and since the most recent post is from 5-24, doesn't seem many here have either.

So there is fighting primarily on the eastern front. Russia seems to be making "some" gains. US and other allies are providing more military arms. More Russian generals are dead. Economic sanctions, SWIFT BS, and targeting the oligarchs haven't done much.

Pretty much a stalemate and it'll be a drawn out thing. Does that sum it up?

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Economic sanctions, SWIFT BS, and targeting the oligarchs haven't done much.

I'm not sure one can conclusively conclude this. We know GDP is down and will know more when full Q2 numbers come out. We know rouble vs. dollar is also down. Economic measures aren't like bombing, in that the results aren't immediate. And we can't really tell if Russia would have been able to bring more material to the war without the sanctions, although the guess is that it's hampering their ability to wage war to some extent.

Pretty much a stalemate and it'll be a drawn out thing. Does that sum it up?

Feels that way.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

I'm not sure one can conclusively conclude this. We know GDP is down and will know more when full Q2 numbers come out. We know rouble vs. dollar is also down. Economic measures aren't like bombing, in that the results aren't immediate. And we can't really tell if Russia would have been able to bring more material to the war without the sanctions, although the guess is that it's hampering their ability to wage war to some extent.

Fair enough. Let me rephrase to "Economic sanctions, SWIFT BS, and targeting the oligarchs haven't done much or as quickly many had hoped".

[JPhillips]

The growing trade surplus for the Russians is a sign that sanctions are having an effect. It makes no difference how much money they can hoard if they can't buy things from foreign sources.