2011-12 MLB Offseason Thread: Tigers are really stupid

[DanGarion]

Matt Kemp was robbed!

[lungs]

I guess I'll wait on Braun until MLB actually makes a decision instead of ESPN leaking a story.

[Shkspr]

I wrote up way too much stuff in the comments over at Baseball Prospectus, and will undoubtedly get raked over the coals for it, but my wife is an MT and could immediately come up with three plausible reasons that a second set of testing could exonerate Braun. The TL, DR version:

1) The second sample could suggest improper QC calibration on the machines running the test.
2) There are several methods to "test" samples, and using a different method might highlight imprecision in the first method.
3) The substance Braun popped for stays in the body for a few days. There is, however, a more specialized test that detects low concentrations for months. A positive on the general test should produce a positive on the specialized test within the time frame of the appeal - so a negative specialized test, if performed, would cast doubt on the accuracy of the general test.

But if you hear that his defense was eating tainted meat, then hang him.

[bhlloy]

It's never your guy until he gets caught. If you judged Barry Bonds based on the size of his head then Ryan Braun is just as big a cheater. And baseball has some real issues still.

[jbergey22]

I always wondered how he got around with that heavy piece of lumber he swings. He also has some unusually good opposite field power for a player his size. Of course innocent until proven guilty right?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

No frigging way. The sanctimony over PED's exceeds any proven efficacy of PED's.

I'm amazed people can still make statements like this considering 11 of the top 12 HR seasons of all time are from 1998-2007 and HR rates have dropped from a peak of 1.16 in 2000 (and 1.10 as late as 2006) all the way down to .88 this past season.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I'm amazed people can still make statements like this considering 11 of the top 12 HR seasons of all time are from 1998-2007 and HR rates have dropped from a peak of 1.16 in 2000 (and 1.10 as late as 2006) all the way down to .88 this past season.

There aren't even eleven seasons in the time period 1998-2007, so you're pretty much just making up shit as you go along.

Besides, players that don't do PEDs are cowards and losers who care more about things like growing old and getting to know their grandchildren than justifying the salaries I pay them. If you don't have the heart to 'roid, you don't have the heart to win. Do you want Craig Counsell to be an All-Star, or will you let players man up and take the needle?

Note: The sanctimony of the above rant may exceed any proven efficacy of said rant.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

There aren't even eleven seasons in the time period 1998-2007, so you're pretty much just making up shit as you go along.

I think what he is getting at the 11 top individual home run seasons are in that time frame. Maybe? Im not even sure.

Bonds 01
McGwire 98
etc.

[larrymcg421]

Edit: Realized I was using the NL only numbers. Here is the corrected chart, which shows 9 of the top 12 seasons coming from 1998-2006:

Year	Tms	#Bat	BatAge	R/G	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR ▾	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
2000	30	1230	29.1	5.14	4858	39.16	34.44	5.14	9.31	1.83	0.20	1.17	4.89	0.60	0.27	3.75	6.45	.270	.345	.437	.782	15.05	0.80	0.32	0.34	0.31	0.25
1999	30	1209	28.9	5.08	4856	39.06	34.42	5.08	9.33	1.80	0.19	1.14	4.83	0.70	0.31	3.68	6.41	.271	.345	.434	.778	14.93	0.79	0.33	0.33	0.30	0.23
2004	30	1247	29.3	4.81	4856	38.82	34.46	4.81	9.17	1.84	0.18	1.12	4.58	0.53	0.23	3.34	6.55	.266	.335	.428	.763	14.74	0.78	0.38	0.36	0.28	0.28
2001	30	1220	29.1	4.78	4858	38.49	34.22	4.78	9.03	1.81	0.19	1.12	4.55	0.64	0.29	3.25	6.67	.264	.332	.427	.759	14.60	0.75	0.39	0.33	0.29	0.28
2006	30	1243	29.1	4.86	4858	38.71	34.45	4.86	9.28	1.88	0.20	1.11	4.63	0.57	0.23	3.26	6.52	.269	.337	.432	.768	14.88	0.81	0.37	0.34	0.29	0.29
1996	28	1141	28.8	5.04	4534	39.09	34.58	5.04	9.33	1.76	0.19	1.09	4.76	0.71	0.30	3.55	6.46	.270	.340	.427	.767	14.76	0.80	0.31	0.34	0.31	0.30
2003	30	1230	29.1	4.73	4860	38.57	34.31	4.73	9.07	1.82	0.19	1.07	4.50	0.53	0.23	3.27	6.34	.264	.333	.422	.755	14.48	0.79	0.38	0.33	0.27	0.27
1987	26	975	28.3	4.72	4210	38.45	34.23	4.72	9.00	1.61	0.21	1.06	4.44	0.85	0.36	3.42	5.96	.263	.331	.415	.747	14.22	0.74	0.20	0.35	0.26	0.31
2009	30	1266	28.8	4.61	4860	38.49	34.13	4.61	8.96	1.80	0.20	1.04	4.40	0.61	0.23	3.42	6.91	.262	.333	.418	.751	14.26	0.78	0.33	0.34	0.28	0.24
2002	30	1218	29.2	4.62	4852	38.46	34.13	4.62	8.92	1.79	0.19	1.04	4.40	0.57	0.26	3.35	6.47	.261	.331	.417	.748	14.22	0.79	0.36	0.34	0.29	0.30
1998	30	1186	28.9	4.79	4864	38.70	34.36	4.79	9.15	1.80	0.18	1.04	4.54	0.68	0.31	3.38	6.56	.266	.335	.420	.755	14.44	0.76	0.33	0.35	0.29	0.22
2005	30	1237	29.2	4.59	4862	38.31	34.21	4.59	9.05	1.82	0.18	1.03	4.37	0.53	0.22	3.13	6.30	.264	.330	.419	.749	14.33	0.80	0.37	0.33	0.27	0.25

[k0ruptr]

Too Many numbers in that post. Nobody would go through the effort of posting that if it wasn't true. therefore you make a good point.

[jbergey22]

Im just wondering what was up with the year 1955 and why such a jump that year. Also, surprised the big expansion year of 1961 didnt make the top 12.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Im just wondering what was up with the year 1955 and why such a jump that year. Also, surprised the big expansion year of 1961 didnt make the top 12.

1961 is 15th highest and 1956, 1953, and 1958 also make the top 20.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

1961 is 15th highest and 1956, 1953, and 1958 also make the top 20.

Interesting. You are prompt.

[larrymcg421]

Fixed the table above as I realized the original was NL only. Still shows 9 of the top 12 being from 1998-2006.

Also, 1987 moves in as the biggest outlier, while 1955 drops off the charts as the AL rate that year was a very low .78.

[Blackadar]

They stopped juicing the ball in 2004.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I always wondered how he got around with that heavy piece of lumber he swings. He also has some unusually good opposite field power for a player his size. Of course innocent until proven guilty right?

If he had a positive test they don't need to prove anything else for him to be guilty. Maybe he should take his own advice on testing positive.

"The best thing he can do is come out, admit to everything and be completely honest. The situation will die a lot faster if he tells the whole truth."

[molson]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I'm amazed people can still make statements like this considering 11 of the top 12 HR seasons of all time are from 1998-2007 and HR rates have dropped from a peak of 1.16 in 2000 (and 1.10 as late as 2006) all the way down to .88 this past season.

What about the peformance impact of PEDs on pitchers?

I really don't know the full impact, but I do know that it's against the rules, heavy punishment is possible, the impact on reputation may even be more severe - and players still do it. So it would appear players at least believe they're getting huge benefits out if.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by DanGarion

Matt Kemp was robbed!

+1

[lungs]

Innocent or guilty, I'm already sick of this bullshit about people looking up to Ryan Braun. Be your own damn role model for your kids instead of placing somebody on a pedestal. If he isn't juicing, he's probably bangin' a different woman or man every night (and the Ryan Braun is gay rumors have definitely made rounds in Wisconsin).

[lungs]

Ken Rosenthal tweets that Braun tested positive for prohibited substance, not performance enhancing drug, whatever that means.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by lungs

Ken Rosenthal tweets that Braun tested positive for prohibited substance, not performance enhancing drug, whatever that means.

Clarified that he "triggered violation of steroid testing policy" but source says the substance was prohibited but not a PED itself.

Like Manny? Whatever it is, its not like it was pot.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Clarified that he "triggered violation of steroid testing policy" but source says the substance was prohibited but not a PED itself.

Like Manny? Whatever it is, its not like it was pot.

Whatever it was, apparently there has never been a result like this in the history of MLB's testing program.

Obviously, since this player is on my favorite team, I'm going to show some bias in the way I look at this. But I think it was highly irresponsible for whoever leaked this to do so before the appeals process has been taken care of and MLB hands down its punishment. Everybody keeps pointing out that none of these have been overturned but we don't know that as why would MLB make something like that public? There is a reason that the process of appeal is confidential and somebody fucked up big time if Braun wins the appeal.

Save the pitch forks for when MLB actually suspends him.

[ISiddiqui]

He was totally sniffing glue

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

They stopped juicing the ball in 2004.

Laugh all you want, but as far as MLB conspiracies go "they directed a private company to string balls tighter" is about as likely in my mind as steroids/HGH/PED's actually helping hitters that much more than pitchers for that ~12-year period. Runs per game and HR/per AB have plummeted the past couple years like nothing since the mound was raised, and I don't really believe that is was all due to hitters suddenly stopping juicing. Plus MLB has had these aberrations in the past (1987 was pointed out).

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by lungs

Whatever it was, apparently there has never been a result like this in the history of MLB's testing program.

Obviously, since this player is on my favorite team, I'm going to show some bias in the way I look at this. But I think it was highly irresponsible for whoever leaked this to do so before the appeals process has been taken care of and MLB hands down its punishment. Everybody keeps pointing out that none of these have been overturned but we don't know that as why would MLB make something like that public? There is a reason that the process of appeal is confidential and somebody fucked up big time if Braun wins the appeal.

Save the pitch forks for when MLB actually suspends him.

Can look at that both ways. The guy who says he's innocent is using the results to show extenuating circumstances.

I've seen other comments saying that the amount of exogenous testosterone detected was double the previous highest failed test, which would *also* qualify as "there has never been a test like this in MLB history."

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Laugh all you want, but as far as MLB conspiracies go "they directed a private company to string balls tighter" is about as likely in my mind as steroids/HGH/PED's actually helping hitters that much more than pitchers for that ~12-year period. Runs per game and HR/per AB have plummeted the past couple years like nothing since the mound was raised, and I don't really believe that is was all due to hitters suddenly stopping juicing. Plus MLB has had these aberrations in the past (1987 was pointed out).

You mean aberration, not aberrations. 1987 is the only year pre-1994 where the league HR rate is 1.00 or higher. That's right, no other year in baseball history qualifies. And 2010-11 brought us back down under that amount. Maybe it's just a coincidence that it happened at the same time that steroid use was heavy. I highly doubt it, though.

Of course, I always thought "it doesn't have a significant/remote effect" argument is one of the worst defenses for two reasons:

1) It makes the players look worse, not better. Guys like Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro, Ramirez, etc. just destroyed their legacies for something that didn't really do much to help them?

2) Cheating is cheating, even if you do it in a way that doesn't help you. I've never understood why people think it's okay to cheat if you're a moron.

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Can look at that both ways. The guy who says he's innocent is using the results to show extenuating circumstances.

I've seen other comments saying that the amount of exogenous testosterone detected was double the previous highest failed test, which would *also* qualify as "there has never been a test like this in MLB history."

Of course, Braun's never had a full season like he had last year......ever .

[lungs]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Can look at that both ways. The guy who says he's innocent is using the results to show extenuating circumstances.

I've seen other comments saying that the amount of exogenous testosterone detected was double the previous highest failed test, which would *also* qualify as "there has never been a test like this in MLB history."

Correct, I posted that before I knew what made it so unusual. I'm just going to wait for MLB to make its decision. Personally, the only thing that bothers me is that he'll miss time. I don't care about steroids, never have never will. Barry Bonds is still the best hitter in the history of the game in my mind.

[ISiddiqui]

Looks like the Brew-Crew sign Aramis Ramirez to a 3 year deal:

http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story...waukee-brewers

This should blunt (somewhat) losing Prince Fielder and having to do without Ryan Braun for 50 games.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by molson

What about the peformance impact of PEDs on pitchers?

I really don't know the full impact, but I do know that it's against the rules, heavy punishment is possible, the impact on reputation may even be more severe - and players still do it. So it would appear players at least believe they're getting huge benefits out if.

Roids will only help pitchers recover quicker, not get any better. You still have to know how to pitch or all that will happen is the extra couple MPH's on your pitches just make them leave the park that much quicker. Where for a hitter it can make a difference between a flyout to the track and a homerun.

[tarcone]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Roids will only help pitchers recover quicker, not get any better. You still have to know how to pitch or all that will happen is the extra couple MPH's on your pitches just make them leave the park that much quicker. Where for a hitter it can make a difference between a flyout to the track and a homerun.

Or a homerun is only a flyout to the track because the pitcher recovered faster and was able to get that movement on the pitch he had lost when tired.

Im in favor of PEDs for all professional sports. They get millions of dollars to play the game, why not have them perform at the higherst level possible?

[Travis]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Roids will only help pitchers recover quicker, not get any better. You still have to know how to pitch or all that will happen is the extra couple MPH's on your pitches just make them leave the park that much quicker. Where for a hitter it can make a difference between a flyout to the track and a homerun.

To a degree yes and no. Extra muscle development can also allow them to put extra rotation on breaking balls and give their curve/sliders/etc more and sharper break.

Location is still key but there are other areas a pitcher can benefit from other than just velocity.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Or a homerun is only a flyout to the track because the pitcher recovered faster and was able to get that movement on the pitch he had lost when tired.

Im in favor of PEDs for all professional sports. They get millions of dollars to play the game, why not have them perform at the higherst level possible?

Probably so the players dont end up dead 10 years after they retire like many of the wrestling performers. Its not healthy at all is why. The MLB wants to show the public they care for their athletes. Most importantly show the younger generation that PEDs arent cool.

[lungs]

Here is about the best breakdown of everything we know about the Braun case, FWIW.

Funny, Braun's college teammate who is also in the Brewers system was suspended and unsuspended for high testosterone levels and ultimate exonerated in 2008 while under minor league testing. No connection to Braun, but it does happen.

[bhlloy]

Yeah I'm guessing allowing pro players to dope is a slippery slope tat we don't want to go down. If the pros are juicing, that means everyone in the minors has to juice to get to the pros. Kids in college or even HS will probably start juicing to get ready for the minors. From there its not a stretch to see where we go. That's before you even consider the fact that kids are much more likely do what they think is cool and socially acceptable.

In a vacuum I couldn't care less whether pro athletes do whatever they like to their bodies. But I think there's bigger things at stake here.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yeah I'm guessing allowing pro players to dope is a slippery slope tat we don't want to go down. If the pros are juicing, that means everyone in the minors has to juice to get to the pros. Kids in college or even HS will probably start juicing to get ready for the minors. From there its not a stretch to see where we go. That's before you even consider the fact that kids are much more likely do what they think is cool and socially acceptable.

In a vacuum I couldn't care less whether pro athletes do whatever they like to their bodies. But I think there's bigger things at stake here.

I don't think "think about the kids" is an appropriate policy development position, though.

[bhlloy]

Well if we are being cynical, how about not getting sued the shit out of and taking the massive PR hit the first time some 18 year old kid dies after a workout or choked out his GF and they figure out he was roiding for years because that's how you get into MLB

I'm not trying to argue necessarily that OMGZ think of the children and our youth will be ruined if we allowed pro ball players to juice. Just saying its probably a pretty big consideration. Those anti steroid adverts are pretty prevalent, you think MLB thinks it is a good idea to openly battle the people behind them?

[stevew]

Wahoos! Pirates dump Veras and pick up slugger Casey McGhee. I think both teams just got worse.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Well if we are being cynical, how about not getting sued the shit out of and taking the massive PR hit the first time some 18 year old kid dies after a workout or choked out his GF and they figure out he was roiding for years because that's how you get into MLB

I'm not trying to argue necessarily that OMGZ think of the children and our youth will be ruined if we allowed pro ball players to juice. Just saying its probably a pretty big consideration. Those anti steroid adverts are pretty prevalent, you think MLB thinks it is a good idea to openly battle the people behind them?

I'm not saying MLB ought not have a policy against steroids or a public position against it. It's good business to maintain even the veneer of cracking down on it. I'm just (probably overly) sensitive to arguments against things that want to nanny state legislate adults under the guise of 'what about the kids?'

In baseball it's one thing, in the "real world" of sorts, it's more bothersome. But that's my critique on A-Merry-ca and not really the logic of such policies in the status quo.

[tarcone]

Im not sure how dangerous PEDs are. Im sure there are deaths that are related to them. Just like there are deaths related to eating meat or drinking coffee.
The serious side effects vary by individual. Steroids will make someone who is aggressive even more aggressive, but a passive person isnt going to turn into Mr. Hyde.
And what is the definition of PEDs? I hear announcers talk about cortisone shots. Arent those PEDs? An injured athlete can perform with an injury after a shot. I believe it was the WS or the playoffs that the announcer said, and Im paraphrasing, "Its the postseason, the trainers are going to pull out the good stuff so he can play." I wish I remember the player and announcer. But my point is, why arent cortisone shots illegal?
For that matter, any type of medicine should be considered a PED. I know Im going to the extreme in the opposite direction, but I truly believe that in a fully developed adult, PEDs are no dangerous then alcohol or cortisone. In someone who is not fully developed, they should wait. But thats true of weightlifting, also.

"Think of the kids" is something to think about. But if you educate kids then you have a chance. But Steroids have been and will always be in high schools. No matter if Barry Bonds is using them or not.

Not a popular opinion, but I see a very limited downside to professional athletes using PEDs.

[stevew]

Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers. Hopefully they figured out how to put multiple contract years in to the same contract.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by stevew

Wahoos! Pirates dump Veras and pick up slugger Casey McGhee. I think both teams just got worse.

You do get Casey's wife, at least.

[cougarfreak]

Reds acquire the ace they've been looking for this offseason, dealing for Matt Latos of the Padres. Alonso going back, details haven't all been released yet.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Reds acquire the ace they've been looking for this offseason, dealing for Matt Latos of the Padres. Alonso going back, details haven't all been released yet.

Gave up Volquez too. Lot to give up. Especially, if Votto isn't signed long term and a crapshoot in left.

[Scoobz0202]

Fuck it. I fucking love the trade. A legit ace in Cinci. Thank fucking god.

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by rowech

Gave up Volquez too. Lot to give up. Especially, if Votto isn't signed long term and a crapshoot in left.

I'm stoked we still have Devin Mesoraco. I accepted that Votto was going to stay and Alondo was going to go. And whatever about Volquez. He was a fucking heart attack waiting to happen everytime he started.

EDIT: would be nice to see one more move to add a bat to the lineup and then I would be content.

[rowech]

Originally Posted by Scoobz0202

Fuck it. I fucking love the trade. A legit ace in Cinci. Thank fucking god.

My concern is how much of Latos is a park thing. That .7 HR/9 isn't going to hold up in GABP like it does PETCO and his BB/9 went up last year and K/9 went down.

Hope it's just a blip. I know he has the potential to be an absolute stud. He and Cueto make a nice 1-2.

[Scoobz0202]

Looking at his numbers they do look like they hold up pretty well away from PETCO, though, so that is definitely a very positive sign. GABP is always going to be a risk for a pitcher but I think this could be very good for the Reds. The loss of prospects is always a negative, but they were at positions where we can afford it. The Reds were never going to acquire Roy Halladay, but I give Walt major props for this move.

Edit: plus, Latos isn't a free agent until 2016.

[RedKingGold]

J-Roll resigns with the Phils for three years-33 mil, with a vesting option for a fourth. Fair deal for both sides, glad the Phillies didn't cave and go five years.

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Reds acquire the ace they've been looking for this offseason, dealing for Matt Latos of the Padres. Alonso going back, details haven't all been released yet.

Pads gave up a head case with a good arm. Pads have an adundance of decent arms for Petco and getting 3 or 4 MLB-ready players is a steal, imo. Good short-term deal for the Reds but great long-term deal for the Pads.