2011-12 MLB Offseason Thread: Tigers are really stupid

[DeToxRox]

I know it's early but lots of reports that Theo Epstein is close to joining the Cubs which is a damn significant move and probably necessitate the start of this thread.

I wonder how Sox fans feel about this. It seems like quite a few would be happy to see Theo gone.

[DeToxRox]

Epstein 'On Cusp' Of Deal With Cubs
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [October 11 at 8:25pm CST]

8:25pm: ESPN's Karl Ravech hears that the compensation would involve prospects and/or cash, but no MLB players. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe hears that the Red Sox wouldn't saddle the Cubs with bad contracts in the proposed arrangement and notes that Epstein remains undecided about the possible change (Twitter links).

8:05pm: Epstein would need Boston's approval to bring employees with him to Chicago, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Carrie Muskat of MLB.com hears that the Cubs made an offer and Epstein is now deciding whether to leave the Red Sox (Twitter link).

7:20pm: Epstein's nearing a deal with the Cubs, Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com confirms. The deal isn't done yet, as some issues other than compensation have to be resolved. Meanwhile, Yahoo's Tim Brown hears that Red Sox ownership is making a play to keep Epstein, but won't ask him to continue in a job he doesn't want (Twitter link).

5:44pm: Boston GM Theo Epstein is "on the cusp" of leaving the Red Sox for a job with the Cubs, according to Steve Buckley of the Boston Herald. Red Sox ownership still hopes to retain Epstein and if he is to leave, Boston will demand "something real" as compensation.

Epstein's proposed deal with the Cubs would include more power than he has in Boston, according to Buckley. The teams could make an announcement within a day or two and the situation will be "resolved very soon."

When Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts outlined his ideal GM candidate after firing Jim Hendry, he said he wanted someone with a commitment to player development and a strong analytical background who came from a background of success. Epstein, who became Boston's GM in 2002, certainly qualifies.

The Red Sox won two World Series titles under Epstein (2004, 2007) and have made six playoff appearances since 2003. They missed the postseason for the second consecutive year in 2011 after a September slide that cost manager Terry Francona his job. Our Transaction Tracker has every one of Epstein's moves as GM. Check out Tim Dierkes' look ahead to the Cubs' offseason for a preview of Epstein's first winter in the Windy City.

[molson]

I'm sure there's plenty of guys besides Francona and Epstein who can be successful in Boston - I would have preferred that they both stay, because of the risk of throwing away a couple of years with a dud hire or two. But, maybe people do have limited effective shelf lives with teams, who knows.

I just wish the compensation for signing Epstein could have been taking Lackey with him.

I like both Francona and Epstein enough that I'd love to see them team up in Chicago and win a World Series there.

[RomaGoth]

Now if only Cashman would join him......

[ISiddiqui]

Wow... will the collapse haunt the Red Sox well after this season? I can't see this as being a good thing for Boston at all.

[Izulde]

I just hope Epstein doesn't make the Cubs good. I'm still very uncertain about this Ventura hire as White Sox manager.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I think it's time on both sides. Best of luck to him, and let's see what Cherington can do. When Epstein was hired he was a young nobody.

[Ksyrup]

GM is like the closer position. You can usually make a good one out of a guy with some ability due more to the circumstances he finds himself in (money, farm system) than pure talent, and when they get too successful, it's best to let someone else pay them and move the next young guy in. Unless you happen across a Jim Bowden type or go with a dinosaur retread, you probably won't be much worse off than if you had stuck with the original guy.

[sterlingice]

Nah, that mostly implies that they are interchangeable and I think we've seen that a good GM can elevate a team beyond their monetary situation and, more importantly, a bad GM can Omar Minaya your team and there will be significant long term lasting effects to your team.

SI

[Ksyrup]

I disagree. I mean, like I said, a Bowden or Littlefield can fuck you up, but again, I'm talking about moving up some of the young, smart guys in this business as many teams have done, not bringing in stupid or old people to run a team. Money has largely obscured the fairly crappy job Epstein has done with FAs. If he was running Pittsburgh, those mistakes would be glaring.

[Passacaglia]

So there's also this report out of Boston about the Red Sox pitchers hanging out in the clubhouse when it wasn't their day to pitch, drinking beer, eating fried chicken, and playing video games. First of all, I want fried chicken now. Secondly -- what do pitchers usually do when it's not their day to pitch?

[GrantDawg]

I'm on team SI. GM's are better with experience. It is not a "skill" that degrades. Young GM's can catch lightning in a bottle, but you are eventually going to have to deal with them over-reaching and making mistakes.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

So there's also this report out of Boston about the Red Sox pitchers hanging out in the clubhouse when it wasn't their day to pitch, drinking beer, eating fried chicken, and playing video games. First of all, I want fried chicken now. Secondly -- what do pitchers usually do when it's not their day to pitch?

I think they eat grilled chicken.

Except CC...he got back on the "box a day of Cap'n Crunch" diet a few months ago.

[Ksyrup]

Personal interaction skills don't degrade. I'm not sure I agree that the older you get, the more you stay on top of trends and know what's what in baseball anymore. I just see a bunch of young guys like Shapiro, Epstein, DiPoto, etc., being able to do what the older guys can do as well, if not better. And if Epstein's going to require a piece of ownership or a bigger title and more money, I don't think the Sox lose too much if they wisely choose a younger replacement.

[Crapshoot]

Aha the Boston media; never ever let anyone leave on good terms. What a bunch of hacks.

PS - would anyone give a shit about fried chicken if they won one more game? In 2004, with Millar, this was a sign of a "loose" clubhouse.

[DeToxRox]

HOUSTON - Major League Baseball sources confirm for FOX 26 Sports that commissioner Bud Selig has asked Houston businessman Jim Crane to agree to move the Houston Astros to the American League if he is approved as owner of the team.

MLB sources told FOX 26 the fact that Crane has yet to agree to the request has kept him from being approved as owner.

That approval can only come from a vote of the game's owners.

Major League Baseball cannot move a team from one league to the other without that team's consent.

Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association may decide to expand the number of teams in the playoffs, and to do that they want each league and each divison to be balanced.

Right now the National League has 16 teams and the American League has 14 teams.

The only two divisions that aren't made up of five teams are the NL Central (six teams) and the AL West (four teams).

The Astros are in the National League Central.

MLB sources also told FOX 26 it is believed Crane can still get MLB's approval to buy the Astros franchise without consenting to move to the American League.

However, the sources said the issue of shifting the Astros franchise would be addressed again at a later date.

Crane has an agreement to buy the franchise from Drayton McLane for $680 million.

It was thought the deal was going to be voted on by the owners last month, but that vote was delayed according to baseball as it continued the approval process.

Crane is not available for comment.

McLane declined comment when asked by FOX 26 Sports to respond to this story.

[miked]

I never thought I'd hear the day when a KC fan (I think) said all GMs are interchangeable. There's a reason why teams hit the tank when a bad GM is hired. I'm sure the Mets would argue that point quite well. Certain teams can win despite the GMs (maybe you can knock Cashman, but he's grown some great talent as well). Clearly Theo wants out of Boston, but chokes aside the Sox won 90 games this season and have been a constant at the top of the standings (and attendance) over the last decade.

[JeeberD]

Such fucking blackmail bullshit...

Edit - Re: Astros to AL

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by miked

I never thought I'd hear the day when a KC fan (I think) said all GMs are interchangeable. There's a reason why teams hit the tank when a bad GM is hired. I'm sure the Mets would argue that point quite well. Certain teams can win despite the GMs (maybe you can knock Cashman, but he's grown some great talent as well). Clearly Theo wants out of Boston, but chokes aside the Sox won 90 games this season and have been a constant at the top of the standings (and attendance) over the last decade.

I'm not a Royals fan. And I never said they were interchangeable. I said you can replace an older, more expensive, upper management/owner wannabe with a less expensive, cheaper GM and not lose much in the process.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

Such fucking blackmail bullshit...

Edit - Re: Astros to AL

I don't see how this hurts the Astros in any way. 15 years later, and there are some people who don't even realize the Brewers were in the NL (until the Cards/Brewers playoff series brought up the 1982 WS talk).

[JediKooter]

I don't know much about the Cubs and player salaries, but, will Theo even have the financial resources he did with the Red Sox? If not, I don't see him bringing much to the hopes of Cubs fans.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Yes, Theo did nothing but spend money. If he doesn't have that money to spend with the Cubs (which he will pretty much have, making this point even more asinine) then the Cubs are fucked.

Spending money was the only thing Theo did poorly.

[Ksyrup]

sportspickle SportsPickle
This is a big loss for the Red Sox. What if their next GM doesn't know how to offer huge contracts to All-Stars?

[miked]

Didn't he also take part in the drafting of guys like Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Papelbon, Buchholtz, and more? He also made some pretty solid signings on the cheap of Schilling, Papi, Millar, Mueller (some guys that were pretty critical to their WS run).

Sure he made some shitty signings, but I think it comes with the turf when you are expected to run out a team of All-Stars and a 150M payroll. If he hadn't signed Crawford, we'd be hearing the whining of Sox fans all season about the weak OF.

[Ksyrup]

Epstein is a very good GM. His problem, like what's going on in Philadelphia, is that the more money he has to spend, the more long-term issues he creates. When he took over the Red Sox, his payroll was under $100M; it's now over $160M.

To the extent he's going to come in and turn around the farm system, draft good players, beefo up the roster's depth and talent, etc., he's a fine choice. But if the Cubs are just going to open up the pocketbooks, expecting quick results from the Boy Wonder, history suggests that's not such a great idea.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

How many big money FA signings actually work as intended since payrolls boomed?

CC? Manny? Vlad? So much easier to think of the bombs than the successes.

[Toddzilla]

I honestly don't think anyone in Chicago, or any Cubs fan, gives a shit what damage Theo Epstien does to the Cubs short- or long-term as long as he brings them a World Series Championship.

Seriously, he can burn Wrigley Field down and take a shit on the Harry Caray Statue for all anyone cares. Win the World Series = Instant GOD.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

sportspickle SportsPickle
This is a big loss for the Red Sox. What if their next GM doesn't know how to offer huge contracts to All-Stars?

And here's the screwed up thing- I agree pretty much that, say, Epstein and Cashman are as GMs not all that different than "Hi, I'm Phil Jackson and you may not recognize me if I'm not standing next to at least two future HOFers at any given time". I'm pretty sure that you could put a group think of the 10 most knowledgeable baseball fans on this board in their place with their resources and get results within 20% of what they do. Just watch as the Yankees pay 6/$100M for CJ Wilson this offseason just because they need another SP and he's the best available, never mind that to any other team, he's worth maybe 5/$75M.

That said, the difference between teams in that 7-15 payroll range with a good GM and a bad GM is stark. They all spend between $85 and $115M, which is a substantial gap but not night and day, and those teams range anywhere from still in the playoffs to drafting in the top couple of picks next year.

If you're in Boston's situation or New York's, I think you could get anyone who isn't completely awful at their job and still be competitive with their overwhelming resources. So, what you're saying is probably very true for Boston. But that's not true for a lot of other teams- for them, the GM is far from interchangeable and to get a Billy Beane or an Andrew Friedman makes a huge difference. Also, I think we're going to see the difference between what Terry Ryan did and what Bill Smith will do grow over the next few years (I think Bill Smith has mostly sealed his fate with the Mauer and Morneau contracts).

SI

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by miked

I never thought I'd hear the day when a KC fan (I think) said all GMs are interchangeable. There's a reason why teams hit the tank when a bad GM is hired. I'm sure the Mets would argue that point quite well. Certain teams can win despite the GMs (maybe you can knock Cashman, but he's grown some great talent as well). Clearly Theo wants out of Boston, but chokes aside the Sox won 90 games this season and have been a constant at the top of the standings (and attendance) over the last decade.

Agree completely. Twins have become a disaster since Smith took over. They need to bring Terry Ryan out of retirement.

[Logan]

As a Mets fan, I'll give Brian Cashman some credit. Yes, it's a lot easier when you have all the money and can also buy your way out of mistakes. But when you look at the guys that have more or less failed with the Yankees, word has come out over time that Cashman wanted to pass on those guys but was overruled by the elder or younger Steinbrenners. Soriano is the most recent example, but I believe he was against signing Burnett and Jaret Wright as well.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

(I think Bill Smith has mostly sealed his fate with the Mauer and Morneau contracts).

SI

Not only this but he has failed miserably in keeping the minor league system stacked with depth like Ryan had. Ryan had everything so well organized that if someone left via free agency a solid prospect was ready in Triple A. The lineup they ran out of the majority of this year was simply just awful.

[jbergey22]

I wonder if Theo thought this one through.

Leaving the Red Sox for the Cubs.

I will guess at some point he regrets this move. Plus the Red Sox showed a lot of loyalty to Theo in which Theo didnt really return the favor here. Im not sure how he got the Red Sox GM job at age 28 but he sure did make the most out of it.

IMO 37 is a little too young to be looking for a "new challenge" as he had 1 of the top 2 GM jobs in all of baseball. I mean I hope it works out for him but there is a lot of downside in him taking this job. Its not like he has a Phil Jackson reputation where as if he bombs in Chicago the money will still be waiting for him.

[ISiddiqui]

It's quite unfair just to say that Epstein offered big money to free agents. How many GMs would have taking a platooning David Ortiz, to make him a regular player, and seen that he had All-Star potential>

[MrBug708]

Someone who was feeding him steroids?

[cougarfreak]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

It's quite unfair just to say that Epstein offered big money to free agents. How many GMs would have taking a platooning David Ortiz, to make him a regular player, and seen that he had All-Star potential>

And yet that same GM signs John Lackey to a long term deal, trades Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena, signs JULIO LUGO to a long term deal, and the every promising Dice K to a long term deal. It's all pretty much a crapshoot. He's floated horrid deals, and he's had some good deals. In large markets like Boston, you have a whole lot more leeway.

[dawgfan]

I think people are undervaluing GM's like Epstein and Cashman. Yes, they have massive payrolls, and they've had a few free agent flops/bad contracts. But a few points:

- They have the payroll flexibility to do so;
- The signings might not always be their idea (more so for Cashman than Epstein);
- If the money is there to be spent, Joe Sixpack fan doesn't give a shit about how efficient your payroll is if Mr. Big Name Free Agent is out there to be had - spend the damn money and bring him in!
- Who's to say that if Epstein or Cashman were running Tampa that they wouldn't be as efficient as Friedman?

Boston fans that are fine with waving good bye to Epstein and Francona are playing with fire. Yes, the (relatively) new ownership group of the Red Sox gives the franchise a much better base than what came before them, but still, this a team that hadn't won a World Series since 1918, and has now won 2 in the last 8 years.

The ownership group in Boston is a pretty savvy bunch, and they may do just fine in replacing Epstein. They certainly know the situation a lot better than I do. But they are taking a risk in moving away from a known quantity...

[MrBug708]

Apparently Boston wants Castro

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Apparently Boston wants Castro

Sounds like he'd fit right in with that pitching staff.

[Toddzilla]

won't be a major league player - that rarely if ever happens. expect it to be a cash-only compensation.

but yeah, Boston would want Castro, as would 27 other teams.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

won't be a major league player - that rarely if ever happens. expect it to be a cash-only compensation.

but yeah, Boston would want Castro, as would 27 other teams.

There were rumors of the Sox getting Castro or Garza earlier. However I agree that it will likely only be cash.

It would be insane to give up a quality low 20s AS caliber SS for a GM. But it is the Cubs so you never really know.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

At best Sox will get Jackson, or some low arms no one has heard of. At best.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I wonder if Theo thought this one through.

Leaving the Red Sox for the Cubs.

I will guess at some point he regrets this move. Plus the Red Sox showed a lot of loyalty to Theo in which Theo didnt really return the favor here. Im not sure how he got the Red Sox GM job at age 28 but he sure did make the most out of it.

IMO 37 is a little too young to be looking for a "new challenge" as he had 1 of the top 2 GM jobs in all of baseball. I mean I hope it works out for him but there is a lot of downside in him taking this job. Its not like he has a Phil Jackson reputation where as if he bombs in Chicago the money will still be waiting for him.

I'm 100% stealing this from Buster Olney on Simmons' podcast yesterday...but it's entirely possible that Boston chugs along for another few years with no championships and Epstein's star fizzles to the point where he wished he took the massive amount of money being offered to him now. Equated it with Billy Beane passing on the Sox job. I'm sure Beane could get jobs right now if he wanted them but they won't be as lucrative as he got back then by flirting with Boston.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'm 100% stealing this from Buster Olney on Simmons' podcast yesterday...but it's entirely possible that Boston chugs along for another few years with no championships and Epstein's star fizzles to the point where he wished he took the massive amount of money being offered to him now. Equated it with Billy Beane passing on the Sox job. I'm sure Beane could get jobs right now if he wanted them but they won't be as lucrative as he got back then by flirting with Boston.

That may be.

On the other hand, if the Cubs win a World Series under Theo, can you imagine how awesome a legacy that will be for him? To have taken the two longest-suffering franchises to their first World Series trophies in damn-near forever?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Logan

I'm 100% stealing this from Buster Olney on Simmons' podcast yesterday...but it's entirely possible that Boston chugs along for another few years with no championships and Epstein's star fizzles to the point where he wished he took the massive amount of money being offered to him now. Equated it with Billy Beane passing on the Sox job. I'm sure Beane could get jobs right now if he wanted them but they won't be as lucrative as he got back then by flirting with Boston.

Great points. I really wasnt thinking of it from this angle.

In Boston 90 win seasons arent good enough so absolutely right that his stock could crash on him if they didnt win some more WS titles along the way. One playoff appearance for the Cubs and hes set for life. Id still call is a risky move but it makes more sense thinking of it from this angle.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I wonder if Theo thought this one through.

Leaving the Red Sox for the Cubs.

I will guess at some point he regrets this move. Plus the Red Sox showed a lot of loyalty to Theo in which Theo didnt really return the favor here. Im not sure how he got the Red Sox GM job at age 28 but he sure did make the most out of it.

IMO 37 is a little too young to be looking for a "new challenge" as he had 1 of the top 2 GM jobs in all of baseball. I mean I hope it works out for him but there is a lot of downside in him taking this job. Its not like he has a Phil Jackson reputation where as if he bombs in Chicago the money will still be waiting for him.

... I've decided that any opinion you hold on baseball seems to be the inverse of the correct one. Theo didn't return the favor? He stuck around for 9 years, built the first 2 WS winners in 90 years, and remade the Red Sox from a laughing stock into one of the premier franchises in baseball. And what the hell do you mean 37 is too young to be looking for a new challenge? If he wins with the Cubs, he will go down in the history as probably the greatest GM ever (up there with Branch Rickey and George Weiss).

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

... I've decided that any opinion you hold on baseball seems to be the inverse of the correct one. Theo didn't return the favor? He stuck around for 9 years, built the first 2 WS winners in 90 years, and remade the Red Sox from a laughing stock into one of the premier franchises in baseball. And what the hell do you mean 37 is too young to be looking for a new challenge? If he wins with the Cubs, he will go down in the history as probably the greatest GM ever (up there with Branch Rickey and George Weiss).

Any opinion can seem "inverse of the correct one" when the person trying to understand the opinion either misses key points entirely or decides to change its meaning to fit his own agenda.

FYI Boston was not the "laughing stock of baseball" prior to Theo. They had been consistent winners in the 80s/90s. I think you could go down as one of the greatest GMs in MLB history if you were able to win a WS with the Cubs. The problem with your statement is that Theo hasnt won a game with the Cubs as of yet.

Boston has been a premier franchise since existence with some awful luck. Baseball movies tend to be overdramatic when it comes to the Red Sox. They didnt win any WS titles for 85 years but they put together some very good seasons along the way.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

A good summary of the deals of Theo-as-GM here in Boston:

http://www.boston.com/sports/basebal...eo_epstei.html

[korme]

I posted this on Twitter earlier today: As a #Reds fan, the Theo Epstein signing scares me. He will go get anyone and get after it. Then again, the #Cubs will always be the #Cubs!

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

A good summary of the deals of Theo-as-GM here in Boston:

The Theo Epstein years: The good, the bad and the ugly transactions - Extra Bases - Red Sox blog

I think it's a bit of a mischaracterization to call them "finds." Was Ortiz a find? Sure. Was Mueller a "find"? Beltre? No. Beltre signed with the Red Sox because of the situation; it wasn't like he didn't have multi-year offers out there. He wanted to win and establish himself for a better FA offer. Mueller was a known quantity who had 1 career year and hit less than his lifetime average OPS+ the other 2 years combined for Boston. It was a good signing, but a pretty reasonable one at the time. Certainly not a "where the fuck did they find this guy?" type signing.

Same thing with Foulke. He was already an established closer making $6M/year when he signed with Boston.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

That may be.

On the other hand, if the Cubs win a World Series under Theo, can you imagine how awesome a legacy that will be for him? To have taken the two longest-suffering franchises to their first World Series trophies in damn-near forever?

That was the other point made by Buster. Simmons said pulling that off would make him the #2 GM of all time behind Branch Rickey (unofficial rankings).