The 2024 Presidential Nomination - GOP Debate #1 (Aug 23, 2023)

[PilotMan]

You had me at "touched all the erogenous zones."

<3

[Atocep]

I think Vivek sees a bump in polling. He was the most unknown of the candidates and his stances will appeal to a portion of the MAGA crowd.

He's definitely taken to the Trump approach or just lying to everyone even when there's easy to find proof. He said climate change is a hoax last night even though he's stated recently that climate change is real and on some level is man made. He also trashed Trump for J6 in his book and denied it when Christie called.him on it.

[Edward64]

I'm glad Haley did well. Hopefully enough to get/keep her into the next knockout round.

The criteria for next debate

The first debate only required candidates to receive 1% in three national polls, or 1% in two national polls and two early state polls. The next debate will reportedly require at least 3% in two national polls, or 3% in one national poll and two polls conducted in early states.

Assume Burgum, Hutchinson are not going to make it as they currently are well below 538 average < 1%.

[RainMaker]

Yeah, I think Vivek is trying to build up support for 2028 or beyond. He's targeting the groyper demographic of the party and hoping to garner young support.

Vivek is my favorite because he just throws out the dumbest, wild ideas imaginable. Part of his schtick is that Americans need to pass a civics test to vote. Then he says the Constitution won us the Revolutionary War (which wasn't written till well after). His demographic should be younger people, but he wants to ban them from voting. Just incredible dumb guy energy and I hope he stays in for a long time.

[GrantDawg]

Idk. He seems dumb enough to actually become President.

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[Solecismic]

After the dust has settled a bit...

Winners: Trump (unscathed, so that's a huuge win), Haley (handled herself very well, gets to continue).

No real change: Ramaswamy (lots of press, lots of people wondering about him, but also some major negatives - I think it evened out).

Losers: DeSantis (by weird-smiling and weird hand-raising and not winning), Christie (by not playing his role well), Scott (by not doing anything anyone noticed - another ten runs for president and he's Bob Dole).

Why Bother?: Pence (respectable, but too many negatives), Hutchinson (I could only pick him out by eliminating the other seven), Burgum (apparently a lousy basketball player as well).

If they could somehow get down to four for the next one, Trump's refusal to debate will hurt him. But I think he would join, then, just to derail it. The RNC needs moderators that at least can tolerate the group. Not an easy task at all. I couldn't do it.

[Edward64]

It's obvious y'all don't fall under the category of "likely Republican primary voters"

See 538 report on who "won"

Who Won The First Republican Debate? | FiveThirtyEight

The first 2024 Republican presidential primary debate is in the books, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy seem to have made the best impressions.

We know that thanks to fresh data from a FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, conducted using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel in the hours immediately following the debate. We surveyed the same group of likely Republican primary voters before and after the debate, allowing us to see how much it may have shifted public opinion. All pre- and post-debate numbers below are limited to respondents who watched some or all of the debate.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It's probably time for many in this group to drop out

That's not how you get speaking engagements, FOX News gigs, cabinet posts and even a chance at the VP seat.

You drop out when the primaries start, when you can leverage something out of dropping out (even better if you're winning a few delegates along the way).

[Front Office Midget]

Vivek definitely made the biggest gains among MAGA Nation, but overall, I'd say Chris Christie was the one who "won" the debate. He's the only one on that state who came across as a competent alternative to Trump, instead of begging for his approval. Christie's politics seem disagreeable from my perspective, but he doesn't come off as a complete whackjob who gets all of his information from Grandpa's Facebook posts.

Trump benefits from all the Trump Jr.'s staying in the race longer. Basically looks like Christie is the only "Anyone but Trump" choice, and dear leader's best hope is that the field stays diluted so Christie can't build momentum.

Of course, if Trump can't run for whatever reason, then who knows which wannabe fascist Maga nation flocks to. Desantis seems like a joke so far, but it's early in the campaign, and he has a track record of winning.

[JPhillips]

The question I'd love to see:

Raise your hand if you think you'd be a better President than Donald Trump.

Christie and Hutchinson would, but would any of the others?

[Edward64]

That is a fantastic question.

[flere-imsaho]

"Why do you hate America?"

[Thomkal]

So if you are running for President perhaps you might have been interested enough in the job to vote in most elections for someone who best fitted your philosophy right Vivek?


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...rds-rcna101827

[JPhillips]

Vivek is just a salesman willing to say whatever will make you close the deal.

[QuikSand]

2024 National Republican Primary:

Trump 42%
Ramaswamy 15%
DeSantis 12%
Pence 7%
Haley 6%
Christie 5%
Scott 3%
Burgum 0%

.@cygnal/@VivekGRamaswamy Internal Poll, 1,500 LV, 8/24-26 pic.twitter.com/0eJfOPdgbh

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 28, 2023

[Atocep]

Vivek has made it clear he sees his path to the presidency as being Trump 2.0 in case Trump has to drop out. He said today that he would like to make Trump a special advisor if he won the Presidency.

If Trump isn't eligible he's positioning himself to pull a sizeable portion of the MAGA base. I'm not sure he can pull enough and keep enough of them engaged to win the primary, but he's completely unelectable in a general.

Out of those on the stage at the first debate, Haley would probably be the biggest threat to Biden, but wanting to raise the retirement age would really hurt her.

I wonder how much of a threat Pence would be if he hadn't been VP for Trump.

[RainMaker]

I don't think Vivek has any ideas of winning this. He's just getting his name out there for 4 years from now. Seems to be banking on the party continuing down the fascist/QAnon/white power route they've been on.

Some have mentioned VP, but I don't think Trump would nominate anyone who would draw attention away from himself. That's why I think it'll end up being someone like Tim Scott.

[Brian Swartz]

I should, and hopefully won't, ever again say anybody is unelectable. Trump broke the mold on that in my opinion, and shifted my perspective on what's possible. I would be only moderately surprised if a dead person were elected President in my lifetime.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I would be only moderately surprised if a dead person were elected President in my lifetime.

You mean Biden?
I think Trump has a real shot at winning in 2024. People aren't happy right now, most especially the working class. Just go on my mostly left-leaning feed of social and see people just struggling to survive. Every body has jobs, and those jobs have moderately in creased pay, but those increases aren't even coming close to keeping up with the increase in prices on every day items. I'm afraid for every young voter feed up and afraid of what freedoms they are having taken away, there might be two that have given up on voting because of how badly the economy has turned on them.
I'm not crazy about how things feel right now. Every side is way too angry and frustrated. I think we are on the verge of a huge break, and I am afraid it is not in a good way.
"It is the grocery store, stupid."

[Edward64]

Thanks for sharing.

Your experiences with your left-leaning friends is not what I've experienced. But accept the group of folks I socialize with is different.

TBH, I just assume left-leaning will vote Joe, even if he wasn't their first choice, just to beat Trump. Interesting you think inflation may be the deciding factor.

[larrymcg421]

I don't see it. Trump has done nothing to win back the people he lost in 2020. If anything, he's lost some hold the nose people who picked him for judges or taxes or whatever.

I suppose there's a danger of a 3rd party candidate splitting the vote, but I don't see it. Trump is one of the best candidates in history at getting out the vote, both for himself and for his opponent.

[albionmoonlight]

The liberals I know in real life are generally of the "Biden is a bit old for my taste, but assuming the GOP puts up Trump or a Trumper, I'm voting for Biden."

The vocal liberals I see on Twitter are more of the "My bagel was slightly under toasted this morning, so I am as mad at the Democratic party as I have ever been in my life." I am hoping that, like so many vocal folks online, they are a smaller group than their volume would have you believe.

[flere-imsaho]

No one who's actually liberal is going to vote GOP. This isn't the GOP of 20 years ago who would still lie about not wanting to outlaw abortion or eliminate welfare or privatize social security. This GOP is clear that they're going to do all that stuff and more.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I suppose there's a danger of a 3rd party candidate splitting the vote, but I don't see it. Trump is one of the best candidates in history at getting out the vote, both for himself and for his opponent.

Cornell West is 100% going to be that guy for progressives on the left

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

No one who's actually liberal is going to vote GOP. This isn't the GOP of 20 years ago who would still lie about not wanting to outlaw abortion or eliminate welfare or privatize social security. This GOP is clear that they're going to do all that stuff and more.

Isn't the danger they won't vote at all? Or vote for a third party candidate, if there is one, on their high principles or because "their candidate" was ignored/disrespected etc. etc. and their feelings were hurt? The GOP doesn't have this problem, at all. Virtually every Trump hating R says if he's the nominee they will still vote R. Not sit it out, but still vote R.

[flere-imsaho]

@Sweed - yes, that's always a danger with fickle liberals, but the GOP has done the Democratic party a favor here by going to extreme & overboard with their policies so as to induce enough fear to keep them coming out.


Here's the data, anyway:



Both Trump & Biden gained voters at the ideological ends, but only Biden increased his share of his party's "moderate"* voters.


*whatever the fuck "moderate" means in today's American political hellscape

[GrantDawg]

I'm not saying they are voting GOP. The sentiment I'm seeing a lot is "I voted and it just keeps getting worse for me. Why bother?"

[JPhillips]

This fucking guy.

Now that the Supreme Court finally ended affirmative action, colleges will only further deprioritize SAT scores in favor of subjective factors because of large racial disparities in test results. There’s a simple way forward that will drive excellence and diversity of talent…

— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) August 28, 2023

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

You mean Biden?
I think Trump has a real shot at winning in 2024. People aren't happy right now, most especially the working class. Just go on my mostly left-leaning feed of social and see people just struggling to survive. Every body has jobs, and those jobs have moderately in creased pay, but those increases aren't even coming close to keeping up with the increase in prices on every day items. I'm afraid for every young voter feed up and afraid of what freedoms they are having taken away, there might be two that have given up on voting because of how badly the economy has turned on them.
I'm not crazy about how things feel right now. Every side is way too angry and frustrated. I think we are on the verge of a huge break, and I am afraid it is not in a good way.
"It is the grocery store, stupid."

Biden is unpopular, but I just don't think it matters as long as he's up against Trump. Any generic Republican like Youngkin probably wins, just not Trump.

I look at it this way. Trump needs to win 3 of these states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia. Are there any signs he can do it?

Michigan not only rejected him in 2020, but was pretty strong for Democrats in the midterms. That included against election deniers. His handpicked candidates in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona lost and even ran behind other Republican candidates. A liberal judge just walloped a conservative judge in a very important race in Wisconsin.

Those states seem to be trending away from Trump. I could maybe see Wisconsin flipping with the right conditions since it was close, but I just don't see how he's winning any of those other states.

[GrantDawg]

Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and possibly Arizona all go red with a decent third party candidate in the mix. Pretty easily actually.

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[GrantDawg]

Btw, Georgia is still a red state. Every single state rep is Tepublican including the Lt. Governor who was a fake elector.

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[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

No one who's actually liberal is going to vote GOP. This isn't the GOP of 20 years ago who would still lie about not wanting to outlaw abortion or eliminate welfare or privatize social security. This GOP is clear that they're going to do all that stuff and more.

I agree with this, but turnout will be a factor, and independents/moderates/whatever you want to call them will be a factor. I know the 'how could anyone possibly be undecided between Biden/Trump' will come up, but there will be a statistically significant amount of such people.

To GrantDawg's point, I don't think inflation will be nearly as big an issue by the time the election happens. That's over a year of likely economic improvement away. I think larrymcg421 hit the nail on the head. I can see a bunch of Democrats just sitting out with depressed turnout if it were a meh Republican candidate. I can't see them doing that with Trump. Ironically for the GOP, this is a very winnable election for them if they were competent.

They're nowhere close, and all indications are their voters still want Trump. It's really unprecedented for a modern candidate to be the clear choice of their party after having *lost* the last election. People just move on to something else, but they won't do that with Trump ... at least not yet.

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The sentiment I'm seeing a lot is "I voted and it just keeps getting worse for me. Why bother?"

This is one of the approaches that drives me bonkers the most, and yes I know it's common. It's right up the 'Fierce Urgency of Now' lane. You just assume inflation is Biden's fault, and that another President would have done better - or worse, you just don't care, get mad at the situation, and take it out on him. I think he's done some things to make it worse but mostly I think a lot of dominos were knocked over by the pandemic that no President could do more than just manage. These sorts of completely impossible expectations just show me how utterly incapable we are of self-governance.

[Brian Swartz]

Last I checked Warnock and Ossoff are still in the US Senate. I'd say Georgia is purple, not red.

[GrantDawg]

Ossoff will lose to Kemp in the next election. Warnock only won because the GOP ran the worst candidate they could find. He most likely doesn't win reelection.

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[Brian Swartz]

We'll see. I'd say it's unknowable who gets re-elected and who doesn't, but picking decent candidates is part of winning. A state that has had governor races as close as Georgia and has democratic senators, regardless of the reason, is just not red by any reasonable assessment IMO.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

We'll see. I'd say it's unknowable who gets re-elected and who doesn't, but picking decent candidates is part of winning. A state that has had governor races as close as Georgia and has democratic senators, regardless of the reason, is just not red by any reasonable assessment IMO.

You realize that last Govenor's race wasn't that close, right? Even though Stacey had made a star turn and they had Walker dragging down the ticket, the GOP won every state wide election. Georgia has many independents, but they largely lean strong right. You can describe Arizona the same. Let a semi-sane conservative run, and they win 53-47. Let a prominent conservative leaning independent garner 3% of that independent vote, and a complete GOP nut bag will win.

[Lathum]

I think we can easily see a trump win with the perfect storm of a third candidate, poor turnout by the dems, and Biden losing even a small fraction of the black vote. If blacks in Philly, Atlanta, and Milwaukee don’t turn out or are suppressed trump can easily win.

[Lathum]

The question is are there any states Biden can flip from 2020. Maybe North Carolina? Florida is probably a pipe dream but maybe meatball ron has turned enough people off.

[Ksyrup]

Hey, I found another important issue for MAGA to run on!

A majority of American dog owners are now expressing “concerns” about vaccinating their dogs— including for rabies— following MAGA conspiracies about COVID.

Nearly 40% were baselessly concerned that vaccines could cause their dog to develop autism.

��https://t.co/gq4L7dwYzr pic.twitter.com/HlBSOEFi1u

— No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen (@NoLieWithBTC) August 28, 2023

[NobodyHere]

Republican Candidate Drops Out of Presidential Race

Oh Francis Saurez we hardly knew ye.

Like seriously, I had no idea this guy was running.

[Lathum]

Heard some chatter today that people "in the know" are saying Biden isn't going to run.

If not who gets the nomination? Does Newsome jump in? Whitmer? Harris?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

"It is the grocery store, stupid."

I am totally stealing this

[Brian Swartz]

I don't believe it (on Biden), but if he decides not to run and announces that extremely soon, I'll be very impressed. Won't be long before it's dangerously too late to do any such thing though, so if he's going to say that (not buying it), it needs to happen basically yesterday.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Republican Candidate Drops Out of Presidential Race

Oh Francis Saurez we hardly knew ye.

Like seriously, I had no idea this guy was running.

I still am not sure what happens with the money guys like him fundraise during the campaign but we do know he has gotten PAID since taking office to "serve the public's best interests.

https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/...278776354.html

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Heard some chatter today that people "in the know" are saying Biden isn't going to run.

If not who gets the nomination? Does Newsome jump in? Whitmer? Harris?

JB Pritzker would be their best hope.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

JB Pritzker would be their best hope.

I had to look him up. A billionaire? Who graduated from a law school named after his family? An interesting pick.
I would personally pick Mark Kelly, but I doubt he would run. Newsom is already running without running. Whitmer would be a choice I would like but probably wouldn't win the nomination.

[bronconick]

Shapiro

[JPhillips]

Dems have a pretty deep bench of governors.

[GrantDawg]

I think the rumor he won't run is more wishful thinking than anything. I think we desperately need some younger blood in leadership across the board, but I don't think Biden is willing to step aside to let that happen.

[GrantDawg]

Dola: But in light of that rumor, this is interesting. Sort of taking a conservative talking point?

“As we see around the nation, threats against the integrity of our elections are alive and well … We have expanded voting rights; now we must shore up election security.”

— Gov. Whitmer (D-MI) addresses Michigan’s fall agenda by reflecting on the 2020 election/election security pic.twitter.com/C1gnw38PlL

— The Recount (@therecount) August 30, 2023