WW LXXXV -- Life Contingencies II (GAME OVER)

[Lathum]

dola- for now. Hoops' post could be a way to try and gain trust by saying he was willing to go down early.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'd surmise that they would indeed throw a fake-role-reveal into the mix, given that I think in either overall case (3 or 4 wolves) they're better off of they do. But that could be my blinders on from the decision I made last game.

If there are 4 wolves though, I think the wolves would be pretty foolish to just let us reveal and not throw a fake in.

With 3, it's a little tighter, mainly because with 3 wolves they can less afford to sacrifice a wolf

But, I'm still open to the idea even with that. Looking at last game, it was basically a coin-flip. The village had the game at the end, and still had a shot to win even with the 66/33 split on the final roll of the dice.

I think it is a poor decision for them to throw a red herring in, as the smart move for the villagers then would be to focus on an even smaller group of players that are all either non-rolled villagers or wolves. The other group that contains the seer can help find out which of those four are lying.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think it is a poor decision for them to throw a red herring in, as the smart move for the villagers then would be to focus on an even smaller group of players that are all either non-rolled villagers or wolves. The other group that contains the seer can help find out which of those four are lying.

Yeah but they're kind of forced. I mean if the reveal happens and we have a bucket of 3 cleared, un-contested roled villagers in one pile and the other pile is 9 people where all the wolves are and that we at worst have a 1/3rds chance off the bat of clearing people, it's Game Over. Even if we miss, with a Seer scan we can clear someone or get a wolf and now it's just about to the point where we'll have a really good idea on the wolves.


Anyhow, since Lathum is apparently out of the bag, I'll go ahead and state, I do have a role.

If someone needs me to say which role, I'll entertain that idea.

[Lathum]

I wouldnt go crazy about the fact I revealed, how often in a game with the Duke role do we make it past the second day NOT knowing who they are?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah but they're kind of forced. I mean if the reveal happens and we have a bucket of 3 cleared, un-contested roled villagers in one pile and the other pile is 9 people where all the wolves are and that we at worst have a 1/3rds chance off the bat of clearing people, it's Game Over. Even if we miss, with a Seer scan we can clear someone or get a wolf and now it's just about to the point where we'll have a really good idea on the wolves.


Anyhow, since Lathum is apparently out of the bag, I'll go ahead and state, I do have a role.

If someone needs me to say which role, I'll entertain that idea.

I think mathematically though the reveal hurts the wolves no matter which way they go. That is the point of the percentages.

I think that play if they chose to do so might make it more likely for us to kill a non-rolled villager on day 1, but it would also make it far easier to find one of them for sure, and still wouldn't help them keep the groups apart seperated really as they still would have the remainder wolves in that small group anyhows.

I don't really think the move you talk about there is as much of a curve ball as you think it does. But that said, maybe I'm wrong... and they will try it. I wouldn't mind that.

[jeheinz72]

Oh I agree, just saying that since we're partway there...

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I think mathematically though the reveal hurts the wolves no matter which way they go. That is the point of the percentages.

I think that play if they chose to do so might make it more likely for us to kill a non-rolled villager on day 1, but it would also make it far easier to find one of them for sure, and still wouldn't help them keep the groups apart seperated really as they still would have the remainder wolves in that small group anyhows.

I don't really think the move you talk about there is as much of a curve ball as you think it does. But that said, maybe I'm wrong... and they will try it. I wouldn't mind that.

It's not a big curveball, but it does create an interesting scenario for the village. I'd agree that the village *should* go for the non-roled group still, but I thought that last game as well and they didn't (and happened to get me with some revealing of actual roles after I was gone)

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- for now. Hoops' post could be a way to try and gain trust by saying he was willing to go down early.

If I'm going to go out on D1 I would rather you not Duke me to do it.

I would still rather not go down on D1, all things being equal. I just think it would be worse overall to lose villager + Duke power in same cycle. Particularly if no one is challenging you as Duke ... if that is still the case by the start of N1 then I'm (assuming I'm still alive) going to work with the idea that you are the Duke and would probably encourage everyone else to do the same.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

It's not a big curveball, but it does create an interesting scenario for the village. I'd agree that the village *should* go for the non-roled group still, but I thought that last game as well and they didn't (and happened to get me with some revealing of actual roles after I was gone)

FWIW, the village did vote into the "villager" pile on D1 last game. I just went against it with my Duke decision at the end of the day.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

FWIW, the village did vote into the "villager" pile on D1 last game. I just went against it with my Duke decision at the end of the day.

True, I forgot about that. Mainly because I knew I was dead and ceased caring.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I wouldnt go crazy about the fact I revealed, how often in a game with the Duke role do we make it past the second day NOT knowing who they are?

Quite a few, I think. So are you going to duke somebody today? I'm trying to figure out my vote.

[Lathum]

I doubt I will duke anyone today.

[Lathum]

Vote Hoopsguy

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I doubt I will duke anyone today.

OK then. I don't see any good reason to come out as the duke and not prove that ability and risk getting killed without using it, so despite the risk of doing so:

VOTE LATHUM

[RendeR]

*ponder ponder ponder*

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

OK then. I don't see any good reason to come out as the duke and not prove that ability and risk getting killed without using it, so despite the risk of doing so:

VOTE LATHUM

I don't like this vote at all. The Duke isn't really one of those roles that people tend to fake-reveal as. The sentence for that is usually not a very good one. His getting that information out also should likely be viewed as trusted unless it is disputed by someone else. If that ends up being the case, the duke and fake duke can have a duke-off and settle that real quick.

Your vote here makes very little sense to me.. plus since you aren't one of the revealed roles, the worst mistake I make here is voting off an ordinary villager.

Vote Path

[PackerFanatic]

Path does have a point though, Alan - why reveal and (obviously) risk getting killed, but then not use your power? (or at least say you aren't using your power...)

[RendeR]

Has everyone checked in and caught up yet? because I'm rather stumped as to why Lathum would reveal the actual role he has if he were NOT that role. its a lose lose move.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Path does have a point though, Alan - why reveal and (obviously) risk getting killed, but then not use your power? (or at least say you aren't using your power...)

Why does he have to use his power now? There is nothing that says he should use his power right now. Do you honestly think that a wolf is going to fake reveal as the duke? Why on earth would he do that?

[jeheinz72]

I agree that Lathum doesn't *have* to Duke someone and is likely the Duke.

I don't quite see it though as an indictment on path

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by path12

OK then. I don't see any good reason to come out as the duke and not prove that ability and risk getting killed without using it, so despite the risk of doing so:

VOTE LATHUM

this screams set up move to me.

I can easily see a scenerio where Path fake reveals as the Duke later in the game and points to this post.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE PATH

[jeheinz72]

I'm going off the map

Vote TheJackal


He's playing, right?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Why does he have to use his power now? There is nothing that says he should use his power right now. Do you honestly think that a wolf is going to fake reveal as the duke? Why on earth would he do that?

exactly, plus what do I gain from using it today. I would much rather save the ability for when there is some actual info on the players.

Especialy in a game where a lynch isn't guarenteed to be the player with the most votes.

Right now there are 11 unknowns in this game to me so why duke someone when it really doesn't matter who gets killed?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I agree that Lathum doesn't *have* to Duke someone and is likely the Duke.

I don't quite see it though as an indictment on path

I feel there is no good reason for him to push that vote there (as if he was the real duke he would just attempt to duke Lathum instead). The way he framed it feels to me more like a case of trying to subtly push the vote away from the voting pool that we tried to narrow earlier in our afternoon discussions.

I felt there was virtually 0 upside for his vote in a villager point of view and only bad reasons for it.

[Lathum]

I think due to the random factor we all need to vote Path. I have an uncontested reveal as a villager role and he still voted for me.

Not in out best interest.

[Lathum]

I would like to see Path get more votes, but if he doesn't I will probably duke to him.



Thoughts?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I would like to see Path get more votes, but if he doesn't I will probably duke to him.



Thoughts?

I think part of the point of a narrowed voting pool is there are less chances to be wrong on a day 1 vote than normal. So of interest to me is seeing who ends up being right and wrong when we nail our first wolf. Whether that is today, tommorrow, day 3 or whatever. I think because of the percentages aspect of this game, a wolf might be a bit less likely to throw a random vote on another wolf (and risk even a small chance of their death).

So I think I'd rather just leave it as you aren't going to duke path or anyone else today.. and then when you feel the time is right (whether today or tommorrow or whenever) you use it as you feel. By claiming you are going to duke him anyways, it will possibly cause people to vote differently then they might have otherwise.

[jeheinz72]

I dunno, this whole thing screams villager/villager to me.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I dunno, this whole thing screams villager/villager to me.

Maybe you are right. The way Path did it gives my gut a huge wolf feeling however. My gut seems to be rather hit or miss on these things though, so by all means I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything here. I'm just explaining what I feel and why my vote is going there today.

Anyhows, I'm heading out for a bit. I'll be back later before deadline though.

[Barkeep49]

The only scenario I see for a fake Duke reveal is if Pass provided the bad guys with a list of the roles in the game and Duke wasn't on the list. I don't view this as likely. I'm going to need to cast my vote in about 30 minutes and have no clue where I'm going to put it.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum is 40% likely to be the night kill if the other roles are not revealed, unless the wolves feel like they have a good handle on him and are willing to risk him using his ability in place of the vote. This argues for him using his ability today. Whether or not he decides to be up-front with us about that in the thread is entirely at his discretion.

However, I do think that he can use his role as a bully pulpit to move the vote today. That is only enhanced as more people show up and do not counter his reveal. He becomes a "de facto trusted" villager, and if you do not know who to trust then why not follow the leader? Or, at the very least, engage the "known good" in discussion in the thread.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't like this vote at all. The Duke isn't really one of those roles that people tend to fake-reveal as. The sentence for that is usually not a very good one. His getting that information out also should likely be viewed as trusted unless it is disputed by someone else. If that ends up being the case, the duke and fake duke can have a duke-off and settle that real quick.

Your vote here makes very little sense to me.. plus since you aren't one of the revealed roles, the worst mistake I make here is voting off an ordinary villager.

Vote Path

My only point is why come out as the duke and then risk getting killed without using your power? Then he gets killed tonight and the role doesn't help us in the least.

As to your point about someone else disputing the role, I don't agree with your premise. Let's say that for whatever reason Lathum is fake revealing -- the real duke doesn't have to say anything in thread, just duke the vote to him tonight and problem solved.

But for the record, it makes no sense for him to fake reveal as the duke and I do believe him. I'm just trying to get him to use the power now that he's put it out there.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, do you feel strongly enough about Path as a candidate that you would prefer a runaway vote on him or do you just want him as one of the top candidates and let the random number generator decide between a pair of candidates?

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

this screams set up move to me.

I can easily see a scenerio where Path fake reveals as the Duke later in the game and points to this post.

UNVOTE HOOPSGUY
VOTE PATH

As I said, I believe you are the duke. I just think it's not a good move to say that and not use the power.

You won't get a fake reveal from me, I'm non-roled -- you know I wouldn't make a stand like this day 1 if I wasn't villager.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I don't like this vote at all. The Duke isn't really one of those roles that people tend to fake-reveal as. The sentence for that is usually not a very good one. His getting that information out also should likely be viewed as trusted unless it is disputed by someone else. If that ends up being the case, the duke and fake duke can have a duke-off and settle that real quick.

Your vote here makes very little sense to me.. plus since you aren't one of the revealed roles, the worst mistake I make here is voting off an ordinary villager.

Vote Path

Also most Dukes would like having votes on them, since that is the only way they can use their power, also they are the only one who KNOWs they are good, so they have better odds than anyone else of pickin off a wolf.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Lathum

exactly, plus what do I gain from using it today. I would much rather save the ability for when there is some actual info on the players.

Especialy in a game where a lynch isn't guarenteed to be the player with the most votes.

Right now there are 11 unknowns in this game to me so why duke someone when it really doesn't matter who gets killed?

Hell, I don't care if you duke it to me though it won't help anything. As I just mentioned last post, it seems pretty obvious to me that this is a villager play on my part.

But you put a 40% chance on yourself being killed tonight without using your power. I disagree with you and Alan that there is upside for the village in that.

If someone can convince me differently, I'm more than happy to move the vote.

[path12]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I dunno, this whole thing screams villager/villager to me.

Or villager/duke if you will.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by path12

Hell, I don't care if you duke it to me though it won't help anything. As I just mentioned last post, it seems pretty obvious to me that this is a villager play on my part.

But you put a 40% chance on yourself being killed tonight without using your power. I disagree with you and Alan that there is upside for the village in that.

If someone can convince me differently, I'm more than happy to move the vote.

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, I'm going to go after the wolf from last game who has not given his thoughts on the vote this afternoon other than:

* ponder ponder ponder *

VOTE RENDER

[path12]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

That is the best point I've seen so far. Though IIRC the bodyguard success is on a percentage too isn't it?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum is 40% likely to be the night kill if the other roles are not revealed, unless the wolves feel like they have a good handle on him and are willing to risk him using his ability in place of the vote. This argues for him using his ability today. Whether or not he decides to be up-front with us about that in the thread is entirely at his discretion.

However, I do think that he can use his role as a bully pulpit to move the vote today. That is only enhanced as more people show up and do not counter his reveal. He becomes a "de facto trusted" villager, and if you do not know who to trust then why not follow the leader? Or, at the very least, engage the "known good" in discussion in the thread.

Lathum isn't the only person to have revealed they have a role so far today. We have two people revealing they have roles.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

My only point is why come out as the duke and then risk getting killed without using your power? Then he gets killed tonight and the role doesn't help us in the least.

As to your point about someone else disputing the role, I don't agree with your premise. Let's say that for whatever reason Lathum is fake revealing -- the real duke doesn't have to say anything in thread, just duke the vote to him tonight and problem solved.

But for the record, it makes no sense for him to fake reveal as the duke and I do believe him. I'm just trying to get him to use the power now that he's put it out there.

In every game that there is a duke role or a villager night kill role, they more often than not end up killing a fellow good guy anyways. The longer they go without using the power, the better chance at being correct with it. In some games, the only benefit of the duke power is being able to add a auto-trusted member.

Here Lathum can do that without having to worry about guessing incorrectly. Sure it is a gamble to wait later to use the power, but honestly in today's vote the math shows that a non-rolled villager has a better chance at guessing correctly on the lynch then a rolled villager (including the duke) does. Since I know 3 people right now who are good, vs the two he knows is good.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

Also most Dukes would like having votes on them, since that is the only way they can use their power, also they are the only one who KNOWs they are good, so they have better odds than anyone else of pickin off a wolf.

I don't understand your point here. I know occasionally a duke can only duke the vote if he is up for lynch himself.. but most of the time a duke can simply send in a request to duke player X. I could be wrong, but this game is also like that right? I don't see how having a vote on him changes that or not.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lathum isn't the only person to have revealed they have a role so far today. We have two people revealing they have roles.

Yep, and they are both likely 40% at this point in time unless the wolves know something that we don't (one is a bluff). Either way, unless there are three reveals I would expect that Lathum becomes a 40% target for them tonight.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Hannibal Lecter

Since there have been no other reveals (unless I missed one) I think its a safe bet that the Body guard will be guarding Lathum! so there is not a 40% chance he gets hit.

I know I am playing catchup on posts Chief Rum style right now.. but as I mentioned earlier.. Lathum isn't the only one to have revealed today. I actually am hoping that the third person will also reveal before too late tonight (not revealing which role, but that they have a role) just in case one of the people are lying we would find out.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Since I know 3 people right now who are good, vs the two he knows is good.

This is taking both reveals at face value - which I'm not 100% prepared to do quite yet. But I agree with your general point.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This is taking both reveals at face value - which I'm not 100% prepared to do quite yet. But I agree with your general point.

You probably just crossposted with me, but I was also saying I'll have to be hesitant on the other reveal until the third person reveals myself:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I know I am playing catchup on posts Chief Rum style right now.. but as I mentioned earlier.. Lathum isn't the only one to have revealed today. I actually am hoping that the third person will also reveal before too late tonight (not revealing which role, but that they have a role) just in case one of the people are lying we would find out.

Since once three people with roles have revealed, if one of them is faking it, someone else will be sitting around thinking.. uhh wait I am a role too so one of them must be lying. Right now you might have two different people thinking that they are the third role and not wanting to reveal that though.

[Danny]

Back from work and mostly caught up. So, Lathum revealed as the Duke. Did the other two people reveal having a role?

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lathum isn't the only person to have revealed they have a role so far today. We have two people revealing they have roles.

well that is unfortunate, now I must reread.

Ta Ta for now!

[Danny]

I re-read and we have Lathum as the Duke and Jeheinz as having a role, but no third person yet.

Path's vote seems iffy on Lathum, but for a day one play does seem a little risky for a wolf. That said, I disagree with his comments about Lathum needing to use his Duke. I'd rather him use it with more to go on as right now, it's just throwing a dart blindfolded.

For now, I'm probably leaning towards voting elsewhere.