2016 March Madness thread - Page 2

B & B · 03-18-2016, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

I am entirely chalk tomorrow (counting VCU as a chalk pick since they're favored to win).

NCAA BB
Thurs

FAVS 13
DOGS 11

OVER/UNDER 12-11
There was one push.

I will never support an "all-chalk" or "all overs" type of card. Treat each game independently, but good luck today.

digamma · 03-18-2016, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Anyone got any picks for tommorow? I am in Vegas. Did okay today following the advice in this thread. Chickened out on the Yale ML but did have them plus 6.

The biggest point spread to power rating mismatch for the day is Villanova (line is -18, but the power ratings say 13).

Others:
Oregon is -23, when the power ratings make it a 19 point game.
Michigan State is -18.5 vs. a 15 point power rating differential.
Oklahoma is -15 vs. a 12 point power rating differential.

For a money line play, you might look at Stephen F. Austin. The power ratings see them as about a 30% chance of winning, which would equate to a Money Line of about +233. I'm seeing +300.

murrayyyyy · 03-18-2016, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by digamma

The biggest point spread to power rating mismatch for the day is Villanova (line is -18, but the power ratings say 13).

Others:
Oregon is -23, when the power ratings make it a 19 point game.
Michigan State is -18.5 vs. a 15 point power rating differential.
Oklahoma is -15 vs. a 12 point power rating differential.

For a money line play, you might look at Stephen F. Austin. The power ratings see them as about a 30% chance of winning, which would equate to a Money Line of about +233. I'm seeing +300.

Who's power rating has SFA @ 30%? Massey has them at 22% and 538 has them at 15%

murrayyyyy · 03-18-2016, 10:12 AM

Anyone else like Cal-Hawaii under? Cal lost an assistant coach and their senior guard/leading scorer. Hawaii is playing on 8 AM time. I had Hawaii and Northern Iowa as value plays today for ML.

Thomkal · 03-18-2016, 10:13 AM

the Pac-10 sucks

Had Arizona, USC, and almost Colorado in my picks. California too I'm guessing is likely to lose now with the injury and controversy.

digamma · 03-18-2016, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by murrayyyyy

Who's power rating has SFA @ 30%? Massey has them at 22% and 538 has them at 15%

KenPom

murrayyyyy · 03-18-2016, 10:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by digamma

KenPom

So he's got the game set @ -6. Decent value if you can find a +300 since +6 usually gets you +215.

Butter · 03-18-2016, 12:32 PM

Let's go Flyers!

Kodos · 03-18-2016, 12:47 PM

Take down the Cuse.

Galaril · 03-18-2016, 01:46 PM

Wow the Cuse are smoking Dayton that is surprising.

Butter · 03-18-2016, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Let's go Flyers!

Welp.

Butter · 03-18-2016, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril

Wow the Cuse are smoking Dayton that is surprising.

Dayton's offense was terrible in the second half of the year, so maybe not so surprising. Maybe not second half, but last 10 games or so. 5 points in the first 12 minutes of the second half won't win you any games.

Richardson is playing really well for the Cuse also.

Kodos · 03-18-2016, 02:09 PM

Disappointing.

Thomkal · 03-18-2016, 02:44 PM

not surprised that UNCA lost by 30-the Big South sucked this season.

Vince, Pt. II · 03-18-2016, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by B & B

NCAA BB
Thurs

FAVS 13
DOGS 11

OVER/UNDER 12-11
There was one push.

I will never support an "all-chalk" or "all overs" type of card. Treat each game independently, but good luck today.

I should have specified that I was going by seeding. I get that including the VCU/Oregon State line probably muddied that up a bit.

JeeberD · 03-18-2016, 03:02 PM

Whatever happened to ol' k0ruptr? If you're out there, man, I'm rooting for your 'Bows today!

bob · 03-18-2016, 03:02 PM

Note to Michigan State: Maybe no #1's have lost the in first round yet, but #2's have....

JeeberD · 03-18-2016, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bob

Note to Michigan State: Maybe no #1's have lost the in first round yet, but #2's have....

Go CUSA!

Marmel · 03-18-2016, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galaril

Wow the Cuse are smoking Dayton that is surprising.

Middle Tennessee is next!

Kodos · 03-18-2016, 03:18 PM

MSU has recovered nicely.

Go Hawkeyes!

Butter · 03-18-2016, 03:28 PM

PAC 12 is crapping the bed.

britrock88 · 03-18-2016, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

PAC 12 is crapping the bed.

The downside of being an RPI-darling conference--the committee puts your teams in, and then they play to their KenPom ranks.

murrayyyyy · 03-18-2016, 03:59 PM

I think the Blue Raiders scored 2 points while I watch so I've turned it off after they were up big at the start. The sacrifice must be made.

JonInMiddleGA · 03-18-2016, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by britrock88

The downside of being an RPI-darling conference--the committee puts your teams in, and then they play to their KenPom ranks.

Except ... even with yesterday's loss (since KenPom has updated through today's results already)

Arizona is #20 KenPom ... that'd be a #5 seed
Cal is #24 ... but MTSU is #123

bhlloy · 03-18-2016, 04:02 PM

Would it surprise anyone for Oregon to be the first top seed to go down at this point?

digamma · 03-18-2016, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Except ... even with yesterday's loss (since KenPom has updated through today's results already)

Arizona is #20 KenPom ... that'd be a #5 seed
Cal is #24 ... but MTSU is #123

Arizona was underseeded, I agree, but Wichita State was criminally underseeded. That was a 4-5 second round game rather than a 6-11 game.

Arles · 03-18-2016, 04:18 PM

There were three strong teams in the Pac-12: Oregon, Utah and Arizona. Had Arizona gotten Texas' spot and faced Northern Iowa in OKC - there's a good chance they win. Instead, they faced a better team (Witchita State) and traveled 3500 miles. It was pretty clear they were out of sorts last night given their opponent and travel. The fact that Gonzaga and Wichita St got the same seeds as Northern Iowa and Michigan is a little perplexing.

USC and Cal were very young, Colorado was inconsistent and Oregon State just wasn't very good. I could see all four losing or I could see them going 3-1. At the end of the day, the Pac-12 had a lot of 6-12 seeds on talent - some got overseeded (Cal and Oregon St) and some just faced tough matchups (Arizona and Colorado).

Thomkal · 03-18-2016, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

the Pac-10 sucks

Had Arizona, USC, and almost Colorado in my picks. California too I'm guessing is likely to lose now with the injury and controversy.

and it continues sucking...

Butter · 03-18-2016, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marmel

Middle Tennessee is next!

I'm going to be sick if MTSU pulls this off.

Coffee Warlord · 03-18-2016, 04:44 PM

I had Michigan losing in the 2nd round, so c'mon big upset!

Vince, Pt. II · 03-18-2016, 04:46 PM

Well, that's my bracket (I had the Spartans going all the way).

cartman · 03-18-2016, 04:47 PM

That's the sound of millions of brackets getting the "Jared in the prison yard" treatment

Coffee Warlord · 03-18-2016, 04:47 PM

Jesus. 4 of the 10 guys in my office bracket had Michigan St winning it all, 2 more had them in the championship game.

BRING ON THE DOOM.

Arles · 03-18-2016, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

and it continues sucking...

Big Ten isn't looking so hot either...

Butter · 03-18-2016, 04:50 PM

If MTSU loses, can we blame the nets?

kingfc22 · 03-18-2016, 04:52 PM

And Brackets are busted everywhere

Kodos · 03-18-2016, 04:55 PM

Stick a fork in my bracket.

JonInMiddleGA · 03-18-2016, 04:55 PM

Percent of ESPN Tournament Challenge brackets with Michigan State advancing to:
2nd Round: 97.8
Sweet 16: 91.1
Elite 8: 80.9
Final Four: 61.8
Title Game: 38.6
Champions: 22.3

Young Drachma · 03-18-2016, 04:55 PM

Hoooo boy. Too cool.

britrock88 · 03-18-2016, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Except ... even with yesterday's loss (since KenPom has updated through today's results already)

Arizona is #20 KenPom ... that'd be a #5 seed
Cal is #24 ... but MTSU is #123

Good call. My statement would be more properly directed toward the likes of Oregon State and Colorado. But doesn't every year bear out some evidence that seeding by the committee is a bit of a crapshoot?

Vince, Pt. II · 03-18-2016, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Percent of ESPN Tournament Challenge brackets with Michigan State advancing to:
2nd Round: 97.8
Sweet 16: 91.1
Elite 8: 80.9
Final Four: 61.8
Title Game: 38.6
Champions: 22.3

It's kind of crazy to me that there were over 2% of brackets that had them losing in the first round.

britrock88 · 03-18-2016, 04:57 PM

Sometimes you love losing an Elite 8 team early.

Thomkal · 03-18-2016, 04:57 PM

that sound you heard is everybody's brackets crashing to the ground. Mich St played like they were the #15 seed-very unusual for them. I am now calling for complete chaos for the rest of this round.

Thomkal · 03-18-2016, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Arles

Big Ten isn't looking so hot either...

nope, Iowa looking like they will pull through though.

JonInMiddleGA · 03-18-2016, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

It's kind of crazy to me that there were over 2% of brackets that had them losing in the first round.

A lot of those are probably covered by either MTSU alums + people doing "opposite brackets"

britrock88 · 03-18-2016, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

It's kind of crazy to me that there were over 2% of brackets that had them losing in the first round.

It's interesting to see how the bracket-filling public can exaggerate the odds of a team's advancing. KenPom had MSU as a 92% chance to win.

JeeberD · 03-18-2016, 05:06 PM

I kind of like not having filled out a bracket this year...I'm able to fully enjoy the MTU win.

Arles · 03-18-2016, 05:16 PM

Wow, the Big Ten is finding more ways to potentially lose games that they had in the bag

Jas_lov · 03-18-2016, 05:19 PM

Izzo probably has to go after this. That loss was unacceptable. And McCafferey might follow him. Why wouldn't you tell your senior to foul him at half court? Don't foul when he's shooting the 3, idiot. Just horrible coaching from the Big Ten today.

Thomkal · 03-18-2016, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

nope, Iowa looking like they will pull through though.

Or maybe not...

03-18-2016, 10:13 AM	#55
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	the Pac-10 sucks Had Arizona, USC, and almost Colorado in my picks. California too I'm guessing is likely to lose now with the injury and controversy. Last edited by Thomkal : 03-18-2016 at 10:14 AM.

03-18-2016, 12:32 PM	#58
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	Let's go Flyers! __________________ My listening habits

03-18-2016, 12:47 PM	#59
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	Take down the Cuse. __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

03-18-2016, 02:09 PM	#63
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	Disappointing. __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

03-18-2016, 03:02 PM	#66
JeeberD General Manager Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Town of Flower Mound	Whatever happened to ol' k0ruptr? If you're out there, man, I'm rooting for your 'Bows today! __________________ UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO

03-18-2016, 10:12 AM	#54
murrayyyyy College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Las Vegas	Anyone else like Cal-Hawaii under? Cal lost an assistant coach and their senior guard/leading scorer. Hawaii is playing on 8 AM time. I had Hawaii and Northern Iowa as value plays today for ML.

03-18-2016, 01:46 PM	#60
Galaril Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2004	Wow the Cuse are smoking Dayton that is surprising.

03-18-2016, 02:44 PM	#64
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	not surprised that UNCA lost by 30-the Big South sucked this season.

03-18-2016, 03:02 PM	#67
bob College Starter Join Date: Oct 2004	Note to Michigan State: Maybe no #1's have lost the in first round yet, but #2's have....

03-18-2016, 03:18 PM	#70
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	MSU has recovered nicely. Go Hawkeyes! __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

03-18-2016, 03:28 PM	#71
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	PAC 12 is crapping the bed. __________________ My listening habits

03-18-2016, 03:59 PM	#73
murrayyyyy College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Las Vegas	I think the Blue Raiders scored 2 points while I watch so I've turned it off after they were up big at the start. The sacrifice must be made.

03-18-2016, 04:02 PM	#75
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Would it surprise anyone for Oregon to be the first top seed to go down at this point?

03-18-2016, 04:18 PM	#77
Arles Grey Dog Software Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL	There were three strong teams in the Pac-12: Oregon, Utah and Arizona. Had Arizona gotten Texas' spot and faced Northern Iowa in OKC - there's a good chance they win. Instead, they faced a better team (Witchita State) and traveled 3500 miles. It was pretty clear they were out of sorts last night given their opponent and travel. The fact that Gonzaga and Wichita St got the same seeds as Northern Iowa and Michigan is a little perplexing. USC and Cal were very young, Colorado was inconsistent and Oregon State just wasn't very good. I could see all four losing or I could see them going 3-1. At the end of the day, the Pac-12 had a lot of 6-12 seeds on talent - some got overseeded (Cal and Oregon St) and some just faced tough matchups (Arizona and Colorado). __________________ Developer of Bowl Bound College Football http://www.greydogsoftware.com

03-18-2016, 04:44 PM	#80
Coffee Warlord Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Colorado Springs	I had Michigan losing in the 2nd round, so c'mon big upset!

03-18-2016, 04:46 PM	#81
Vince, Pt. II Pro Starter Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Somewhere More Familiar	Well, that's my bracket (I had the Spartans going all the way).

03-18-2016, 04:47 PM	#82
cartman Death Herald Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas	That's the sound of millions of brackets getting the "Jared in the prison yard" treatment __________________ Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint

03-18-2016, 04:50 PM	#85
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	If MTSU loses, can we blame the nets? __________________ My listening habits

03-18-2016, 04:52 PM	#86
kingfc22 Head Coach Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Morgan Hill, CA	And Brackets are busted everywhere __________________ Fan of SF Giants, 49ers, Sharks, Arsenal

03-18-2016, 04:55 PM	#87
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	Stick a fork in my bracket. __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

03-18-2016, 04:55 PM	#88
JonInMiddleGA Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA	Percent of ESPN Tournament Challenge brackets with Michigan State advancing to: 2nd Round: 97.8 Sweet 16: 91.1 Elite 8: 80.9 Final Four: 61.8 Title Game: 38.6 Champions: 22.3 __________________ "I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis

03-18-2016, 04:55 PM	#89
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Hoooo boy. Too cool. __________________ Current dynasty: OOTP25 Blitz: RTS meets Moneyball \| OOTP Mod: GM Excel Competitive Balance Tax/Revenue Sharing Calc \| FBCB Mods on Github

03-18-2016, 04:57 PM	#92
britrock88 Pro Starter Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Madison, WI	Sometimes you love losing an Elite 8 team early.

03-18-2016, 05:06 PM	#97
JeeberD General Manager Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Town of Flower Mound	I kind of like not having filled out a bracket this year...I'm able to fully enjoy the MTU win. __________________ UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO

03-18-2016, 05:16 PM	#98
Arles Grey Dog Software Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL	Wow, the Big Ten is finding more ways to potentially lose games that they had in the bag __________________ Developer of Bowl Bound College Football http://www.greydogsoftware.com Last edited by Arles : 03-18-2016 at 05:18 PM.

03-18-2016, 05:19 PM	#99
Jas_lov College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000	Izzo probably has to go after this. That loss was unacceptable. And McCafferey might follow him. Why wouldn't you tell your senior to foul him at half court? Don't foul when he's shooting the 3, idiot. Just horrible coaching from the Big Ten today.

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