Paris (And Now Mali)(And Now Orlando)

[digamma]

Dola: Thoughts with those in Paris.

[Scoobz0202]

CNN (and others) reporting "around 100 people killed at Paris concert hall."

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

There's gonna be a HUGE backlash against all those refugees across all of Western Europe after today.

Going to be? The leading opposition party was full of barely concealed neo-nazis a decade ago. Even look up Tony Parker and the quesnelle stuff - it doesn't get play over here, but there are ridiculous tensions between "French" people and "refugees".

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

The figures from Lebanon are pretty telling. Of the 2m "refugees" they admitted, the internal estimates are that at least 2% have Jihadist ties.

That's 4,000 terrorists they just admitted.

No idea if that 2% is true, but your math is off by an order of 10 - 2% of 2m is 40,000.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

It wouldn't make sense for refugees to be involved, as this is what refugees were running from in the first place.

However, many reports indicate that most of the people traveling across borders and seeking refugee status are not actually refugees. And a very high percentage of those traveling are single men aged 20-30. They could very well be part of this kind of attack.

What will probably change in Europe is more of an effort to address who is and who isn't a refugee.

This is terrible. It could very well happen in any western city, including the United States.

OK. Here's the difficulty: yes, a lot of those travelling are males 20-30... But it is also true that ISIS/ISIL are forcing men to join, or die. Who in their right mind wouldn't flee?

It's really difficult not to succumb to the kill em all attitude, especially in light of events like this, but it is just an infentissimally small minority. Where it's difficult is how to both identify and prevent/elimnate this minority, and that is part of the idea of the terrorists when planning the attacks.

Just news now that 140 killed at the concert hall. It is scary, I don't have answers, but we must remember that it is such a small minority.

[AlexB]

Having said all that, I am (and always have been) completely opposed to the EU idea of open borders, and it it telling that as soon as anything that is out of the ordinary happens numerous countries try and set up secure borders...

The EU is a flawed geopolitical idea, and the sooner people realise this, there will be a significiant increase in security.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

G
No idea if that 2% is true, but your math is off by an order of 10 - 2% of 2m is 40,000.

Apparently I picked the wrong week to start sniffing glue.

[Julio Riddols]

Man... I'll never get it. I'll never understand why anyone kills innocents like this. If you have a beef with someone, take it up directly. Don't be a goddamn coward and blow yourself up in a crowd of random fucking people. The only point it makes is that extremism is a pestilence that we need to find a cure for.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Having said all that, I am (and always have been) completely opposed to the EU idea of open borders, and it it telling that as soon as anything that is out of the ordinary happens numerous countries try and set up secure borders...

The EU is a flawed geopolitical idea, and the sooner people realise this, there will be a significiant increase in security.

Talked to a few friends back home this afternoon while news was breaking and this is the prevailing thought - this has to be the end of open borders in the EU. When the EU was a collection of well off Western European nations it may have made some sense, but the situation right now is absolute insanity.

[Kodos]

Sickening. Gotta wipe out the people who do this.

[kingfc22]

Just found this article posted earlier in the day about the German team hotel being evacuated for a bomb threat. Report: Germany evacuated from team hotel due to bomb threat | FOX Sports

[Thomkal]

My heart goes out to France tonight and to any French people/relatives of members of this forum. Kinda makes my 50th birthday tomorrow like I don't even want to celebrate it.

[CU Tiger]

How soon until this becomes a gun debate?

[molson]

If you're scared of being killed, your brain just isn't going to be able to distinguish non-threats from threats very well. Your brain will err on the side of seeing threats. That's the basis of so much racial tension, and general tension between citizens and police (which of course can also have a racial basis).

[Thomkal]

take this for what its worth since its on the band's Facebook page-but it appears the band members are safe.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

How soon until this becomes a gun debate?

Newt Gingrich has already grabbed that brass ring.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

take this for what its worth since its on the band's Facebook page-but it appears the band members are safe.

MSNBC is reporting one of them is dead. I think I trust the facebook page more.

[GrantDawg]

French press reporting 4 attackers killed in the theater, 3 of them killed by suicide belt.

[Groundhog]

Any word on whether it's confirmed if they've arrested 2 terrorists?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Groundhog

Any word on whether it's confirmed if they've arrested 2 terrorists?

Nothing I have seen. They are suggesting all dead.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

MSNBC is reporting one of them is dead. I think I trust the facebook page more.

It would be hard to believe every one of them made it out safely based on eyewitness accounts I heard. But the wife of the lead drummer spoke to him apparently and that's what he said.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by cartman

Newt Gingrich has already grabbed that brass ring.

Donald Trump didn't waste any time.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Donald Trump didn't waste any time.

That was an older tweet, not from today.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

It would be hard to believe every one of them made it out safely based on eyewitness accounts I heard. But the wife of the lead drummer spoke to him apparently and that's what he said.

I'm guessing you meant lead singer?

Meanwhile the AJC has posted an article confirming the safety of the drummer, based on a phone call (and subsequent interview) with his brother. His version was that the band mostly heard, rather than saw, the attack due to the stage lights. They hit the ground, made their way off-stage & fled, running down the sidewalk until they saw a police station & went inside.

[cartman]

Lucky guy.

Attentat au #StadeDeFrance > "C'est mon portable qui m'a sauvé", témoigne Sylvestre qui était aux abords du stade
https://t.co/lIQq3R3OYs

— iTELE (@itele) November 14, 2015

[NobodyHere]

ISIS needs to get it's shit ruined.

[stevew]

Supposedly 7 of 8 terrorists blew themselves up.

[djsatu]

Very tragic and sad indeed. May all the innocent that died RIP. Can see a backlash against the refugees in europe, as I fear this is the beginning of many more attacks to come here in NA and abroad, specifically Russia who will be targeted no doubt. Bunch of cowards!

[RainMaker]

This is horrible.

[Ben E Lou]

Breaking News: François Hollande, France’s president, has blamed ISIS for the Paris attacks as the toll rises to 127 https://t.co/qDL11jUrrZ

— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 14, 2015

[Dutch]

There's a storm coming. Time to take back up the offensive.

[mckerney]

The Latest: Security alert at London Gatwick airport

German media reported Saturday that a 51-year-old man arrested last week after weapons were discovered in his car has been linked to the Paris attacks.

A spokesman for Bavarian state police confirmed that firearms, explosives and hand grenades had been found when undercover police stopped the suspect near the German-Austrian border on Nov. 5.

"He has refused to say what he planned to do or where the weapons came from," Ludwig Waldinger told The Associated Press. "We are providing no further information at this point."

Public broadcaster Bayrischer Rundfunk reported that German authorities contacted French officials shortly after the arrest. Citing unnamed investigators, the broadcaster reported that documents found during the arrest indicated that the man was traveling to Paris.

Bayrischer Rundfunk reported that the arms, which it said included an automatic rifle and one kilogram of TNT, were professionally hidden inside the body of the car, a VW Golf.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

Man... I'll never get it. I'll never understand why anyone kills innocents like this. If you have a beef with someone, take it up directly. Don't be a goddamn coward and blow yourself up in a crowd of random fucking people. The only point it makes is that extremism is a pestilence that we need to find a cure for.

Most suicide bombers are heavily drugged...and many are detonated remotely. ISIS has generated a few "ballsy" kamakasi styled terrorists but they can't sustain that and will go back to remote controlled detonations of drugged people. At least, that's what they used to do before their name changed from Al Qaeda to ISIS.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Dutch

There's a storm coming. Time to take back up the offensive.

Yup. I don't see it getting any better without some US/EU boots on the ground to whack them. It does seem the air war has contained/limited them in the Iraqi battlefield but it seems as if more is needed.

[Edward64]

Really tragic circumstances. I do hope we support France in how they choose to respond and take the opportunity to really strengthen our bond.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yup. I don't see it getting any better without some US/EU boots on the ground to whack them. It does seem the air war has contained/limited them in the Iraqi battlefield but it seems as if more is needed.

Not sure more boots on the ground does anything more than giving them the victimhood they desire to drive recruitment.

There is a huge perception problem the West faces here. They need to figure out how to drive a stake through the heart of these fuckers without collateral damage to the civilian populace.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Not sure more boots on the ground does anything more than giving them the victimhood they desire to drive recruitment.

There is a huge perception problem the West faces here. They need to figure out how to drive a stake through the heart of these fuckers without collateral damage to the civilian populace.

The politics of this--both internal and external--don't make it any easier. This is precisely why I'm not a fan of definitive declarations like "mission accomplished" and "we will not put boots on the ground." Sometimes it's necessary to do things differently than expected, and it's helpful when "how will this make me/our party look after I said the opposite" isn't part of the calculus when deciding on the appropriate response.

I just heard that they've had to put down sand in the streets to "soak up the blood of the victims."

[BillJasper]

Either we need to forget everything we know about warfare and figure a new way to combat zealots or we fall back on the tried and true and set up a major occupation with tens/hundreds of thousands of troops with an open ended commitment (50 years?) to rebuild the Middle East in our image.

These folks (the zealots) are like bugs. If you clear them out, but miss only a few, you'll have another infestation somewhere down the road.

[bob]

ISIS is claiming responsibility.

In Paris, a Syrian passport was found near the body of an attacker outside the Stade de France, according to a police source, CNN affiliate France 2 said. Multiple local media are reporting the same.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm guessing you meant lead singer?

Meanwhile the AJC has posted an article confirming the safety of the drummer, based on a phone call (and subsequent interview) with his brother. His version was that the band mostly heard, rather than saw, the attack due to the stage lights. They hit the ground, made their way off-stage & fled, running down the sidewalk until they saw a police station & went inside.

No I meant drummer-was the name used in the facebook messages I saw on the band's page. No matter really-glad they are safe. They are very very lucky.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

The politics of this--both internal and external--don't make it any easier. This is precisely why I'm not a fan of definitive declarations like "mission accomplished" and "we will not put boots on the ground." Sometimes it's necessary to do things differently than expected, and it's helpful when "how will this make me/our party look after I said the opposite" isn't part of the calculus when deciding on the appropriate response.

I just heard that they've had to put down sand in the streets to "soak up the blood of the victims."

I feel caught up in the middle as well. There are strong arguments that can be made for an old school, major NATO-type coalition offensive in the middle east under the guise of protection against aggression. That ends up being an oxymoron as your protection is someone else's aggression.

It's clear that we are dealing with a situation that is exasperated by large power vacuumes. All the leaders in these areas are essentially gang leaders or war lords, from Assad on down. Take one and 2 take their place. So where a total war aspect might achieve a goal it would be at a great cost of life and an entirely razed geographical region of the planet.

The counter for the flip side is that leaving the current political structure is allowing certain gang leaders to exist merely for the sake of regional balance. I think this was clearly an argument when we went into Iraq for the second time, but I don't think that anyone was willing to concede that it would be this bad.

The groups that look to emerge in this are Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran has been expanding their sphere of influence in the region just the same, but they are trying to be more careful about it and only do it with the blessing of the West when they run into issues. I think that politically they will end up assimilating Iraq and a chunk of Syria, while the Saud sphere will expand as a counter. Those two sides might find balance, but I don't trust either of them to be negotiating partners in a new Middle East power game.

My FB feed has been filled with Nuclear mushroom clouds. No kidding. I just don't see how anything short of a major US/European/Russian coalition would be able to do this the right way militarily. However, every day that goes by and we see events like this taking place, the window for anything but overwhelming military force closes further.

[bhlloy]

Personally I hope this is provided as an opportunity for Putin to rejoin the fold and we do see the U.S., EU and Russia coalition with major support from the Saudis and we just wipe ISIS out. I don't think that's something most moderate Muslims have any problem with and many are considered heretics by ISIS anyway. As horrific as Assad is I don't think another 18-24 months of rule to stabilize Syria with strong international oversight and a transition plan is the end of the world.

The alternative which seems to be hope that a ragtag band of loosely aligned groups can grind down ISIS over the next 3-5 years during which they can fund and plan these kinds of attacks doesn't bear thinking about. The only course of action seems to be cut off the head of the snake. Even if that means we may see more of these attacks in the short term.

[JPhillips]

But it always sounds easier than it is, and we rarely look at unintended consequences. The Mujaheddin led to the Taliban and Al Queada. Iraq led to ISIS. Libya led to anarchy. What will come out of an assault on ISIS?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yup. I don't see it getting any better without some US/EU boots on the ground to whack them. It does seem the air war has contained/limited them in the Iraqi battlefield but it seems as if more is needed.

It was a pretty good setup before, with Syria acting as a honeypot and sucking in a lot of sympathizers from Western countries. Especially when fighting Assad's regime or Hez'b'allah. But alas they're back to exporting terror.

At this point I'd be fine with carving out a country for them and supporting the Kurds as dictators in much of the ISIL "controlled" territory.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

But it always sounds easier than it is, and we rarely look at unintended consequences. The Mujaheddin led to the Taliban and Al Queada. Iraq led to ISIS. Libya led to anarchy. What will come out of an assault on ISIS?

The common thread throughout the world is Salafism. This doesn't have its roots in Western intervention or even hatred of the West or of Israel. The root of this is religious leaders who teach that their destiny is tied to a return to sharia. You could include Boko Haram as well, which formed from the chaos surrounding generations of dictatorships in Nigeria.

This is very different from the threat posed by Iran, which will benefit from a war against Al Qaeda and/or ISIS.

This is ideological. Not only do you have to kill those who have been radicalized (even within Salafism, most choose peace over violence), but you identify and eliminate the religious leaders who teach it. That may prove to be too difficult and could lead to further destabilization as Saudi Arabia would come into heavy play.

[bob]

Greek official is saying that one of the terrorists passed through Greece as a Syrian refugee last month.

[Grammaticus]

Originally Posted by stevew

I'm betting 0 refugees were involved today

Looks like you may very well lose this bet.

[molson]

French police arrested a guy in August who confessed to being part of a plot to hit a French concert venue. This guy's path was probably similar to those of the attackers who pulled it off. Start in France, travel to Syria, get "inspired", and then travel back in a round-about-way through Europe to make it difficult for French authorities to track them. Those French authorities are already stretched thin trying to track the mass movement of humanity and possible threats throughout Europe, and in and out of France specifically.

https://news.vice.com/article/man-wa...nue-police-say

"French politicians have long debated what to do about French nationals who wish to return from Syria, and the government has considered many options, including opening rehabilitation centers for returning jihadists to revoking their nationality. So far, none of these solutions have garnered unanimous support, and politicians are still at odds over how to respond to the issue of disillusioned jihadists."

There's no perfect policy to deal with any of this. The balance between rights and security is always going to be extremely difficult to navigate. War isn't good, but people don't want their countries to spy on their own citizens either. So is it better to go all out with one, maybe have a balance of both, or what? These aren't easy questions. But I'm positive some of Obama's changes in tone about foreign policy after he took office were inspired by fear of this kind of thing happening in the U.S., and probably intelligence that this kind of thing was or is closer to happening than we all know. You can't guarantee safety no matter what you do or what rules you bend, but I can definitely understand the temptation to do so at the top levels of government.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by molson

but people don't want their countries to spy on their own citizens either.

Actually, in a scenario like you described ...

[molson]

It's not getting much media but it looks like ISIS also hit Beirut Thursday, killing 43 and injuring hundreds. And then there's the Russian plane crash which they've taken credit for and no government has disagreed with that. This is quite the wave of violence

[Izulde]

147 dead at Garissa University in Kenya as well, though that appears to be a separate group.