Invasion of Ukraine

[Groundhog]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm assuming these type of "why are we doing this" interviews didn't happen until recently. And to allow this questioning/dissent to be seen by regular Russians.

I think a military general/FSB coup (for self-preservation) has ticked up some.

It's possible. I also don't feel that this is the open/off the cuff type of conversation that it appears. Criticism towards named individuals (even direct references to individuals that don't include the name but it's clear who is being criticized) in regimes like this are rare and do not usually bode well for those individuals. You can see blame being passed down and maybe there is one last purge before eyes turn to Putin. Given the system of government in Russia is basically an organised crime mob, he is not untouchable. There will come a point when it's goodnight Putin, not sure it's happened yet.

[Edward64]

There's reports that the Ukrainians have reach the border. Most Reddit consensus is it's better not to cross over (at least right now) as the cons will outweigh the pros e.g. Allies will not like it and why have anything lessen NATO support.

However, Crimea & further south is fair game, but that slog will be more difficult with dug in Russian positions.

It's been a fascinating 4 days or so. I wonder when the Ukrainian-Russian war/boardgame will come out. Want to play something similar to

[NobodyHere]

Putin 'sacks top general 16 days into the job' after Ukraine's stunning surge

[Edward64]

I'm not sure I agree with "collapse" but Putin won't be in charge anymore if Russia "loses" this war. And I do think the war, one way or another, will be largely decided by 2023. Either Ukraine wins it or the allies decide on some sort of settlement due to "war weariness".

But the idea is interesting. When the Berlin Wall came down, USSR fractured into different countries. Putin is trying to pull them together again (with carrots & sticks). If Russia loses this war, Putin is removed from power, what happens next.

Russia could collapse in four or five years - former US General

The West should prepare for the collapse of Russia within the next four or five years, a former US general has warned.

Ben Hodges, who was general of the US Army in Europe and served in Iraq and Afghanistan, made the prediction as Ukrainian forces continue to make huge gains in their war against Russia.

Last month, Gen Hodges said exhausted Russian troops could crack by the end of this year.

Explaining why Russia could break up, he said: "The military has been exposed, the massive amounts of corruption I think are going to become increasingly intolerable for Russian citizens.

"The two key pillars of their industry, energy export and arms export, I think both of them are going to be suffering."

[Coffee Warlord]

I'm convinced Putin's getting a bullet within the next few weeks.

[thesloppy]

All Putin had to do was NOT attack Ukraine and he would likely be remembered as one of, if not Russia's greatest leader and their military would still be considered #2 in the world.

[Coffee Warlord]

Two rumors floating around.

1 - Russia has begun evacuating villages along the Ukrainian border.
2 - Russian units in Kherson have begun surrendering, as they blew through their ammo supply last night.

[Edward64]

Haven't really educated myself on the situation between Armenia-Azerbaijan.

Will someone just tell me who to root for?


EDIT: okay, in simplistic terms and without factoring any other history, context ... Armenia is aligned with Russia and Azerbaijan is more friendly to US/EU interests.

EDIT: looking at the map below, there's alot of predators surrounding both of them.

[whomario]

The german Chancellor suddenly had a 90 minute call* with Putin (who communicated mainly with Macron before, if at all). I'm sure it's pure coincidence and not to do with Russia leaving so much equipment behind that some analysts here think this alone would prevent any 'counter-counter-offensive'.

The essence, according to him, was that the only way forward for a diplomatic solution is Russia withdrawing and guaranteeing the sovreignty and territorial integrity (which i assume includes crimea) of the Ukraine. He didn't say who called whome.

I think that is a decent move overall (though i really hope he spoke with Selenskyi before that), putting the ball in Putins court right after Russia got punched hard. while showing willingness to talk. The Putin diehards from the right and extreme left will stay pissed but this should appeal to those on the fence and simply ticked off due to the economic troubles rather than being driven by ideology.

[Mota]

But could Russia accept such a scenario? That would be humiliating. You almost need to give them SOME sort of victory, so that they could use that internally, even though everybody knows they lost.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Mota

But could Russia accept such a scenario? That would be humiliating. You almost need to give them SOME sort of victory, so that they could use that internally, even though everybody knows they lost.

Anything else is a non-starter. Fool me once (2014) and all that ... And again, they were just absolutely pummelled despite the counter offensive at best being an open secret. And while yes, the Ukraine was given aid and weapons, it has been a mere fraction of what could be delivered in quantity and simply quality. There's three different tanks that Germany could (but is hesitant to) deliver that are superior to russian ones. So far only 24 Gepard anti aircraft tank systems were delivered and they played a major role apparentl. So imo this is about creating cover in a "look folks, we tried" at least as much as anything else.

Unless Putin wants to go all in, meaning full on general mobilization and war-time measures for Industry (and there's good reason he didn't and instead framed it as a special operation with volunteers) or the A-Bomb (which does and should obviously scare the bejeezus out of everyone), it doesn't look like they have much of a shot at any sort of victory.

There's also other incentives, galling as they might be. Like (and this is pure spitballing, not exactly an expert here ...) a formal non-aggression deal, which Russia could spin as "see, they would have and now we prevented it". Or economic incentives, including still opening that fuck stupid new pipeline for a couple of years, making Russia a ton of money for something we hopefully might not need for the full duration.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Haven't really educated myself on the situation between Armenia-Azerbaijan.

Will someone just tell me who to root for?


EDIT: okay, in simplistic terms and without factoring any other history, context ... Armenia is aligned with Russia and Azerbaijan is more friendly to US/EU interests.

EDIT: looking at the map below, there's alot of predators surrounding both of them.

When the USSR dissolved, many of the new divisions were made based on ethnicity. But what do you do when geography makes that particularly difficult? In general, Azerbaijan is Islamic, Armenia is Christian, but that's an over-simplification. They are at war with each other, because there are smaller counties/oblasts/divisions within one that want to join the other. A lot of that is about Nagorno-Karabakh, which is mostly people of Armenian descent wanting to be either independent or part of Armenia.

While it's natural to want to take sides, and maybe sides should be taken, as far as a rooting interest, it's hard to say from half a world away. Best to just hope for peace and encourage those who actively seek it. Same reason why no one wanted to start wars when Russia took Crimea.

What's happening in Ukraine is similar, but different. Russia is using the same concept, trying to unify counties/oblasts in Ukraine that might be more inclined to be part of Russia to justify a war against all of Ukraine, which does not want to return to the USSR days.

We know Putin has a desire to reunite a Russia based on what it was in Imperial Russia days. However, that would include Finland and other countries that don't have a lot in common with Russia these days. It even includes "Russian America" or what we call Alaska today.

Based on these goals, I think what's happening with this war is that it is a proxy for a war between Russia (with China's support) and the EU/UK/US. Putin probably hoped it wouldn't - that the Ukrainians outside of the eastern oblasts didn't have such a strong desire to stay independent and align with the EU, but it did.

As such, anyone (and France and Germany are trying) who can help figure out a way to end this war is doing all of us a great service. It is probably best that those oblasts in Ukraine ultimately become part of Russia, but the attack on Ukraine, and all the people killed and infrastructure destroyed - that's unforgivable.

So what do you do? Putin has to be defeated, but while he's failing in his efforts to take Ukraine, defense is another story and no one wants this to become a nuclear war - not even Putin himself.

[JPhillips]

There are reports that the 1st Tank Guards Army has been destroyed. Among other things, this was the unit tasked with defending Moscow if need be. It's hard to imagine a scenario where this war goes worse for Russia.

[Edward64]

Not good for the Ukrainians. The only way you fix a problem is you acknowledge it (or define it). Russians are starting to face reality so they may start doing something smart.

It's a 3 minute segment of one of those news talk shows. Pretty candid acknowledgement of just not the counter offensive but of Ukrainian people also.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...7OSyUUBI3O-HYA

[Edward64]

If accurate analysis, great news for the European allies this winter.

Article didn't say but assume much of it is from a North America "lend-lease" like natural gas program.

European gas prices likely to fall sharply this winter, says Goldman Sachs | Gas | The Guardian

European countries can withstand Russia’s gas cuts this winter as supply headaches may have been “successfully solved”, according to analysis by a leading US bank.

Goldman Sachs said the price of gas was likely to more than halve this winter as efforts by EU countries’ to avoid big shortages this winter prove effective.

“This is the puzzle Europe has successfully solved for the past year, with a combination of gas demand destruction within Europe and across [liquified natural gas] buyers elsewhere in the world, resulting in above-average inventory builds.”

Goldman’s analysts said they expected storage facilities to be 90% full on average by the end of October, before an EU-wide target of 80% full by 1 November.
:
Goldman said it expected storage facilities to remain more than 20% full by the end of March next year.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by whomario

And again, they were just absolutely pummelled despite the counter offensive at best being an open secret. And while yes, the Ukraine was given aid and weapons, it has been a mere fraction of what could be delivered in quantity and simply quality. There's three different tanks that Germany could (but is hesitant to) deliver that are superior to russian ones. So far only 24 Gepard anti aircraft tank systems were delivered and they played a major role apparentl.

If you've paid attention to how this lightning advance happened I think it hints at a ton of help that isn't as obvious visually. Ukraine has had the incredible will to fight and some really smart military moves (from a military that was embarrassed in 2014 and took it to heart by re-organizing and empowering NCO's on up), but as much as the materials themselves have helped especially as they got longer range capabilities the groundwork was laid by a systematic targeting of munitions, supply chains, chokepoints. I'm pretty sure the Ukraine doesn't have quite that many satellites, but you know who has them + a fuckton of people with experience using those tools and fighting a war top-down after 20+ years of Iraq/Afghanistan/the War on Terror? It's very true US/NATO haven't been throwing as much advanced equipment at the Ukraine as they're asking for or we could (and that's probably wise because it looked like Russia was real close to winning this or at least Kiev and the Eastern half in those first few days), but it sure seems like the hit rate and targeting of those materials that have gone over there are pretty damn high for people who don't have much experience using them.

[bhlloy]

Am I the only one who doesn't get the warm and fuzzies about Xi leaving China for the first time since 2020 to meet Putin and discuss the war? The Russian issues with chips and weapons could be solved very quickly if China wants to, and I'm guessing that China could also take the edge off any lingering sanctions pretty easily too. This has China turning Ukraine into a proxy to get back at the US for Taiwan all over it.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Am I the only one who doesn't get the warm and fuzzies about Xi leaving China for the first time since 2020 to meet Putin and discuss the war? The Russian issues with chips and weapons could be solved very quickly if China wants to, and I'm guessing that China could also take the edge off any lingering sanctions pretty easily too. This has China turning Ukraine into a proxy to get back at the US for Taiwan all over it.

How would it be getting back at us for Taiwan? Russia rolling over Ukraine could've emboldened China to try the same, but when was the last time we proactively did something concrete in the Taiwan sphere?

I'm guessing China correctly sees that an obviously neutered Russia reduces the space they can move in either overtly or the shadows vs the US/"Western" bloc so they'd at least prefer a stalemate again. Or trying to convince Putin to accept some sort of deal that retains their 2014 gains if that's even on the table. (Wouldn't be for me if I was on the Ukrainian side, though I also acknowledge pushing into real Russian territory is a red line with their nuclear capability.)

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Am I the only one who doesn't get the warm and fuzzies about Xi leaving China for the first time since 2020 to meet Putin and discuss the war? The Russian issues with chips and weapons could be solved very quickly if China wants to, and I'm guessing that China could also take the edge off any lingering sanctions pretty easily too. This has China turning Ukraine into a proxy to get back at the US for Taiwan all over it.

I'm going to put my Tin Foil hat on right now. But it seems China right now loves to loan other countries money at unfavorable terms and then take assets when the countries fail to repay.

So what if China proposes to lend Russia the chips and weapons in return for cash payments? And if Russia fails to repay the loan maybe China grabs a piece of the Russian gas industry. And if Russia does repay the loan then China makes a tidy profit.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

If you've paid attention to how this lightning advance happened I think it hints at a ton of help that isn't as obvious visually.

Wasn't meant to imply this isn't the case, just that there's plenty more available with support so fat being largely logistical and 'surgical' (high impact systems) and the higher echelons of more obvious stuff, where Russia was supposed to have the uppper hand iirc, hasn't even really entered the equation.

Russian troops reportedly also left tons of stuff behin in Charkiw in addition to what was captured along with the soldiers that couldn't get out of dodge fast enough

[Edward64]

A Ukrainian soldier meeting mom after he liberated her town. Pretty cool

https://twitter.com/jabuttee/status/...9IPBPtlbrbOr5g

[Edward64]

A listing of all foreign aid sent/promised to Ukraine.

Also includes a list of what companies have sent/promised (e.g. Philip Morris& their 500K packs of cigarettes).

List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

[PilotMan]

One thing lost in the current situation is that Winter Is Coming. It will impact what happens. I would guess Russia is poised to cut as much of the grid and energy as they can.

[Edward64]

Armenia has invoked CTSO Article 4 which is

military alliance in Eurasia consisting in 2022 of six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan.
:
Similar to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty (CST) establishes that an aggression against one signatory would be perceived as an aggression against all. The CSTO charter reaffirmed the desire of all participating states to abstain from the use or threat of force.

This will be interesting. You'd think Russia will have to help out or risk the CSTO agreement become a worthless paperweight.

Armenia asks military assistance from CSTO to restore its territorial integrity

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said today that Armenia has applied to the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) invoking Article 4 of its Statute, which implies restoration of Armenia's territorial integrity and ensuring the withdrawal of Azerbaijani Armed Forces from the country.

"When I say that Azerbaijan has carried out aggression against Armenia, I mean that it has established control over some territory. That is the reason why we applied to the CSTO. We applied to the CSTO invoking the 4th Article, which says that aggression against one member country is aggression against other member countries. We asked the CSTO for assistance, including military assistance, to restore Armenia's territorial integrity and ensure the withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces from Armenian territory," Pashinyan said during a government Q&S in parliament on Wednesday.

Pashinyan said the goal is the withdrawal of the aggressor from Armenian territory. "That is our goal, including in the context of our initiative in the CSTO," he added.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Armenia has invoked CTSO Article 4 which is

Kazakhstan suspending it's membership in CTSO. Assumption is so they don't have to participate in the Article 4.

Kazakhstan will reportedly suspend its membership in Russia-led CSTO within months - Euro Weekly News

ACCORDING to unconfirmed reports on Wednesday, September 14, Kazakhstan will suspend its membership in Russia-led CSTO (the equivalent of China-led SCO) in the new year.

Kazakhstan has reportedly announced it will suspend its membership in the Russia-led CSTO at the beginning of 2023.

The Collective Security Treaty Organisation is an intergovernmental military alliance in Eurasia consisting of six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan.

Interestingly, Kazakhstan didn’t support Russia in its war against Ukraine and did not recognise the annexation of Crimea and the self-proclaimed independence of the Donbas Republics.

[Edward64]

Some crazy close range fighting (from about 11 days ago, so not current counter offensive)

[NobodyHere]

Unsure if true, but if it is then things just got a lot more interesting.

Putin's limo attacked in 'assassination attempt' amid Ukraine war: Report | Business Standard News

[Kodos]

Too bad they failed.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by dulichhanquoc23

uppp hay quá bác ơi

Long time FOF fan signed up just to post this.

[Ksyrup]

Every time something weird/humorous happens in a college or NFL game this year, I'm going to yell out "Uppp hay!"

[Edward64]

I don't like the arbitrary nationalization (?) of companies but is understandable in this situation. I am assuming there will be a process to return these refineries of Rosneft after/if there is a "satisfactory" resolution to the Ukrainian war.

Germany takes control of 3 Russian-owned oil refineries

Germany is taking control of three Russian-owned refineries in the country to ensure energy security before an embargo on oil from Russia takes effect next year, officials said Friday.

The Economy Ministry said in a statement that Rosneft Deutschland GmbH and RN Refining & Marketing GmbH will be put under the administration of Germany’s Federal Network Agency. As a result, the agency will also control the companies’ shares in three refineries: PCK Schwedt, MiRo and Bayernoil, located in the east and south of the country.

Rosneft accounts for about 12% of Germany’s oil refining capacity, importing several hundred million euros' (dollars') worth of oil from Russia every month, the ministry said.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Mota

Long time FOF fan signed up just to post this.

Google translate said its Icelandic and translated it to English

"uppp hay quá bác Hey"

[molson]

I believe this is the natural progression

-"Assassination Attempt"
-Assassination Attempt
-Assassination.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by molson

I believe this is the natural progression

-"Assassination Attempt"
-Assassination Attempt
-Assassination.

In the old USSR, it was
-"Assassination Attempt"
-Assassination Attempt
-"Natural Causes"

[Kodos]

Maybe he'll accidentally fall out of a window.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Maybe he'll accidentally fall out of a window.

After beating the hell out of himself.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Maybe he'll accidentally fall out of a window.

Why do people keep saying this? It's one of the few times you can topically use the word defenestration, you gotta take advantage of that!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Atocep

After beating the hell out of himself.

After accidently ingesting a nerve agent.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I don't like the arbitrary nationalization (?) of companies but is understandable in this situation. I am assuming there will be a process to return these refineries of Rosneft after/if there is a "satisfactory" resolution to the Ukrainian war.

Germany takes control of 3 Russian-owned oil refineries

It's not "arbitrary". You may disagree with the reason and/or the legal framework but that alone doesn't make this or anything else arbitrary. There are very specific reasons and it's being done within existing legal framework.

Best i understand it:

There is 1) going to be an oil embargo on Russia from the start of next year and thus an urgent need to change suppliers of the russian-backed Rosnet subsidiary still getting it there. There is 2) the issue that a lot of service/parts providers, technical firms, insurance providers and banks are refusing to work with/for a russian (state) owned enterprise. Neither are other countries that provide oil/gas willing to create profits for Russia. There is 3) the fact that these refineries are (unfortunate and a result of naive idiocy as that may be) essential critical energy infrastructure. German law has an existing provision for the state, or rather the regulatory federal agency, to take companies into administration when it can't be guaranteed that they are fullfilling their role within the critical energy infrastructure. (The companies also retain the right to sue within a month from now)

What this means in practice is not btw the state owning it. It means they can (!) replace executive board members and give directives as far as they are needed to guarantee the company to function in it's role (most obvious: buy oil somewhere that isn't the place with the embargo). The state does not replace any shareholders or cash the profits, meaning there is little incentive to do it longer than necessary. They can (and have already announced) invest money into the company/the infrastructure.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Why do people keep saying this? It's one of the few times you can topically use the word defenestration, you gotta take advantage of that!

You make a solid point.

[Edward64]

Ukrainian forces are shelling military targets inside Russia. Not a subscriber but WaPo is reporting it per reddit. Not that my vote counts, but I'm okay with this if truly military targets to further degrade Russian forces.

There's been some reports that Lysychansk has been retaken, which is one more step towards Luhansk, a key city that was lost by Ukraine in 2014. The hope is, after a well deserved rest, Ukrainians are continuing their counter-offensive. Hopefully, they'll be as successful as last week.

After a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the northeast of the country, the messy war that Russian President Vladimir Putin started is now being fought directly on his doorstep, with artillery strikes hitting military targets in Russia and Russian officials in cities and towns along the border ordering hasty evacuations.

On Saturday, a new round of strikes hit the Belgorod region in Western Russia, killing at least one person and wounding two.

On Friday, Ukraine reportedly struck the base of the Russian 3rd Motorized Rifle Division near Valuyki, just nine miles north of the Russia—Ukraine border. Russian officials did not acknowledge that a military target was hit but said one civilian died, and the local electrical grid experienced a temporary disruption.

Russia blamed the attacks on Ukraine, but Kyiv did not claim responsibility for striking targets in Russian territory.

Kyiv has assured U.S. officials that donated weapons would not be used to strike targets inside Russia proper. But Ukrainian forces are now so close to the border that they can hit targets using their own less-advanced weaponry.

[Flasch186]

I kind of hope they would wait before attacking inside Russia to see if the world community can get Russia to stop while Ukraine keeps the moral/border high ground.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GrantDawg]

Here is the article. There seems to be an agreement that donated weapons wouldn't be used inside Russia, but there are close enough to the border be using Ukraine made weapons. Ukraine has not taken responsibility as of yet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/17/ukraine-belgorod-putin/

[Edward64]

Interesting note on US tanks. I really don't know how relevant they'll be in the Ukrainian theatre (seems high maintenance and high training/crew requirements).

lock

QUESTION: Well, again, are you at least considering tanks as they are requesting or is that a non starter?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Tanks are absolutely on the table along with other areas. We're looking at the entirety of the Ukrainian armed forces and considering for the future what -- what capabilities they will need and how the U.S. and our allies will be able to support Ukraine in building out those capabilities.

QUESTION: OK. So again, for the future but not for the current fight in the coming months, correct?

SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: In -- in terms of the immediate fight the -- the tanks that are available that could be provided very quickly with little to no training are soviet type tanks but we're certainly open to other options provided that the training, maintenance and sustainment can be taken care of.

[whomario]

The highest ranking commissioned officer and direct advisor to the minister of defense of Germany (called the "Inspector General") just did an interview where he called a 6 weeks crash course a reasonable timeline for a reasonable knowledge level for the Leopard2 tank. It's not like the ukrainians were training wíth bows and arrows before.

Right now Russia, well technically the respective federatists, announced 'referendums' to have the Kherson, Luhansk and Donezk regions join the russian federation in a blatant attempt to change the narrative from offensive war to a defensiv one at the last possible moment (Ukrainian forces have started making inroads into Luhansk last night)

Russia triggers plan to formally annex occupied Ukrainian regions | Reuters

[Edward64]

Germany has filled up their gas tanks to 90% (ahead of schedule) for the winter months. Supposedly this will be enough to get them through winter (albeit with much higher gas prices).

Good for them. Wonder how rest of EU is doing.

[Edward64]

It's fascinating reading up on the equipment, technologies, strategies etc. but I've not read much on the human element (other than war crimes).

Below is a 7 min video on displaced Ukrainians (still living in Ukraine) and how they are coping. Essentially, living in storage containers, waiting for husbands to come back and war to end. All things considered, it seems the "shelter & food" requirements are halfway decently met.

[Edward64]

Wow, some scary shit. Check out the YT video below.

A terrifying cascade of Russian incendiary shells has rained down on a Ukrainian village in apocalyptic footage shared by its defence ministry.

The recently liberated village of Ozerne in Donetsk was targeted by Kremlin forces just days after it was recaptured amid Kyiv's stunning counter-offensive, Ukraine claims.

Their footage shows countless shells raining down the village, hitting buildings and lighting up the streets.

https://youtu.be/sGYKjxhYyrA

[Edward64]

Vlad has a speech today.

Supposedly some sort of general mobilization (and referendum in the Russian controlled Ukrainian areas).

It'll take a while to ramp up so think there's still an opportunity for Ukraine to continue to take back territory before winter. But it may (will) mean a longer war.

Livestream here: Watch live: Vladimir Putin gives rare address to Russia - YouTube

[whomario]

Macron absolutely blasting Putin in an interview on that Sky stream ("laughable", "tragic") Considering he was among those communicating with him as much and as long as possible, that's quite a statement.

Also, Liz Truss is a freaking bellend but that's for another thread...