The Stock Market thread

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Article I read said it the FDA approval helped. Not sure why, you would think it was priced in already somehow.

I wonder if the approval was priced in, but the speed with which various companies, the military, etc. indicated that they would start treating the vaccine like a normal vaccine and requiring it was a pleasant surprise.

I guess that there was a chance that it could have gotten full approval and everyone just shrugged.

[Ksyrup]

I assumed it had to do with the hope that with the approval, more on-the-fencers will get the vaccine and economy recovery won't get stunted as we head into the fall/winter.

[Edward64]

Checked zillow again after 3 weeks. House price up 1.4%. We live in suburbia, not fancy downtown. Our house value has gone more more in the past 1-1.5 years than in the past 10+.

Wife and I have some irrational exuberance going on.

[Flasch186]

Weird things in that regard going on

Zillow just starting offering to buy homes for 10-20% over value in my area and we can’t understand why


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[GrantDawg]

Made me look. Zillow has mine going up 10k in the last 30 days. That would be 50k in the last year. Crazy.

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[Flasch186]

Then they’ll offer to buy your home for even more than their estimate (by a lot) we’ve seen happening


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[Ksyrup]

I talked to a real estate agent a week ago and he said the market (at least here) is beginning to cool, but sellers don't believe it. They had a seller who was offered cash at their full asking price and they turned it down because they are expecting 20-30 offers and a bidding war. They've had 3 offers, all at asking price. Agent said it's frustrating to try to work with people like that - and they are his client. I mean, how do you explain to a buyer that your full cash offer that meets the list price is being rejected? Crazy.

I hope the Florida market is still nuts because my wife's parents will be putting their house up in the next couple of weeks.

[Ksyrup]

I just checked Zillow and mine is up $10K in the past 30 days too.

Still not selling. I just sank $50K into a new covered deck which isn't even priced in. And they still have the house as 3 bedrooms 2.5 bath when it's 4 bedrooms 3.5 bath with a fully finished basement.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I just checked Zillow and mine is up $10K in the past 30 days too.

Still not selling. I just sank $50K into a new covered deck which isn't even priced in. And they still have the house as 3 bedrooms 2.5 bath when it's 4 bedrooms 3.5 bath with a fully finished basement.

Me, either. I would if I could, but the wife is never leaving.

[JPhillips]

At least in my area, based on sales, Zillow valuation is generally pretty significantly under actual sales prices.

[miked]

We bought a cabin last August and have been using it and renting it out with a management company, pretty much renting it out enough to break even. Got contacted by my old realtor who knew we wanted something bigger and on the water somewhere and told me the market was hot. We listed it Saturday afternoon at more than 100k over what we paid for it just last year (we did buy new appliances and counters and made some exterior improvements, probably 10-15k). By Tuesday (the realtor's deadline) we had 16 offers including a few about 20% over asking (a few cash ones, but those were significantly lower). Ended up taking a big offer with appraisal protection, but will end up with 70% increase in a year (more than triple our cash investment). Not sure how long this is sustainable, but we will not be buying during this craze, even with the 2.3% mortgage we got on a rental place. Maybe the profits go in to stocks.

[albionmoonlight]

Based on this thread, I checked my zillow this morning and actually laughed out loud.

I would not pay that much for my house.

[Ksyrup]

It's like free agency - it just takes one!

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Thinking about it, our house is a "starter" house (< 1500 sq. ft). We've decided to stay in it b/c we like the neighborhood, school district, etc. But it is certainly much smaller/less nice than most of our friends' homes.

But if our "starter" home is worth as much as Zillow says, then where the heck are actual couples just starting out living? We could not have afforded this home when we moved here. I can't see how any young couple can.

Are people just renting forever now? Buying trailers? What's the play for the just-out-of-school set?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Based on this thread, I checked my zillow this morning and actually laughed out loud.

I would not pay that much for my house.

Exactly. The value of our house has gone from around $280K to $380K in the last year, which is lunacy. The thing is, I'm pretty sure I could sell it for at least $350K, looking at what has sold here recently, so it's not like the valuation is terribly off.

I was talking to my sister about this and hers is even more exaggerated. Her and her husband are doctors in Salt Lake City and they bought at $480K in 2017. Their home is now valued at $800K(!) just a couple of years later. Like what do you do with that? And there's just swaths of neighborhoods there like that. How many people can reliably afford a mortgage check for $3500 per month or more? Or rent at $3000 per month? There just aren't.

I feel like we're back in that scene in The Big Short where Steve Carell and his team are down in Florida, looking at empty houses, talking to that poor dude who doing everything right and paying his rent regularly but asking if the owner was going to lose his house, and then the adult dancer who was paying on an ARM.

SI

[Flasch186]

The difference is that the owners of the homes are giant hedge funds that won't default. The problem with the Zestimates is that Z is then going and buying homes for 10%-20% more than what the market value is without them. Then they have to flip it because Z doesn't rent them out (yet). So they basically sell the home within 3-6 months at a small loss on price BUT make the money on the loan, title fees, and service fees they charge. It's a strange game to play and if the market does in fact turn I'm not sure Wall Street would be too kind to the balance sheet v stock price relationship if interest rates climb as well.

[miked]

I believe all 16 of our offers were from investors. There is such low inventory in that area apparently it is a feeding frenzy. With rates so low, these people can just borrow money for 80% of the cost and churn the rentals out. The VRBO market in that area has also gone up. When we opened a block it was usually gone within hours, people renting out weekdays like nothing.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

The difference is that the owners of the homes are giant hedge funds that won't default. The problem with the Zestimates is that Z is then going and buying homes for 10%-20% more than what the market value is without them. Then they have to flip it because Z doesn't rent them out (yet). So they basically sell the home within 3-6 months at a small loss on price BUT make the money on the loan, title fees, and service fees they charge. It's a strange game to play and if the market does in fact turn I'm not sure Wall Street would be too kind to the balance sheet v stock price relationship if interest rates climb as well.

That sounds all like a classic bubble, though - these investors aren't living in the homes, they're just trying to make a quick buck and then pass the pain onto buyers. But we're reaching the point where there just aren't enough buyers who can buy into said houses.

SI

[Edward64]

I looked around the neighborhood with Zillow. No houses for sale.

How does this play out?

1) Does house appreciation just slow down until "equilibrium" but no significant pull back from the new highs?

2) Do house prices come crashing down suddenly?

3) Do hours prices slowly retract over a period of time until "equilibrium" (e.g. -20%)

Other than the traditional/new hot markets, my guess is #3.

[Flasch186]

Without the ibuyers unloading it would have to just contract slowly is my guess


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[Edward64]

Tim is one of those CEOs that has earned his keep. Not sure what the upper limit is but the last 10 years has been pretty good.

Saw a couple articles. He net worth ranged from $1-$1.5B. I assume they included the below stock options. I honestly would have thought more.

Apple CEO Tim Cook is set to receive an estimated $750 million payout as part of a 10-year deal he received in 2011 after the late Steve Jobs, Apple's co-founder, stepped down from the position.

Cook raked in the cash after acquiring and selling 5.04 million Apple shares, according to calculations from Bloomberg.

[Edward64]

In my iPhone stock app tracker, I have Dow, S&P and Nasdaq as the top 3.

Yesterday, Nasdaq was up strong, S&P was okay and DOW was negative. My overall portfolio was nicely up. This means to me that my investments track more to S&P and Dow.

So the iconic Dow that was "the" index has been replaced (for a while now I believe) by the S&P and Nasdaq.

[Edward64]

August was a pretty darn good month for the markets.

Saw some news on Applecar on my feed. Still not sure I believe it and no idea if Apple can become a successful car company. But like the hype.

Apple predicted to announce 'Apple Car' tech in 2021 | AppleInsider

Lithium-ion battery pioneer and Nobel Prize winner Akira Yoshino believes that Apple could announce some type of electric vehicle initiative by the end of 2021.

Yoshino made the prediction in a recent interview with Reuters focused on battery technology. Yoshino, an honorary fellow at Japanese chemical firm Asahi Kasei, won the 2019 Nobel Prize in chemistry for his work on lithium-ion batteries.

Speaking about the future of electric vehicles, Yoshino noted that the IT industry — and not just automakers — is increasingly looking at mobility. He specifically called out Apple as "the one to look out for." The Cupertino tech giant is said to be working on some type of "Apple Car."

"The one to look out for is Apple. What will they do? I think they may announce something soon," Yoshino said. "And what kind of car would they announce? What kind of battery? They probably want to get in around 2025. If they do that, I think they have to announce something by the end of this year. That's just my own personal hypothesis."

Apple has reportedly been working on an auto initiative under the codename Project Titan since 2014. The endeavor has been beset by restructurings and changes in direction. Now, Apple's car project is said to be focused on creating a self-driving electric vehicle again.

[Edward64]

Welp, September has been sucking.

Apple to have their announcements on the 14th so hopefully they'll get a nice bounce. But think market is worried if Apple (and Google & like) can get enough chips to make their products. Also the Apple-Epic Games battle seems to be a negative for Apple.

Also, rumors of iPhone 14 has overshadowed iPhone 13 launch. Supposedly, no notch, titanium, and no camera bump. Would very much like USB-C charging also so I don't have so many damn cables.

Think the market has overall Delta blues.

[Arles]

yeah, September is usually a bad month. Tread lightly:

[Ksyrup]

Back on the Zillow/housing market thing, my wife's parents put their Jacksonville house on the market this weekend. It went live on Zillow Friday afternoon and the entire weekend was back-to-back showings, including a realtor who livestreamed the walkthrough for a NJ buyer who immediately made a cash offer $10K under list. By the end of Saturday, they had 4 offers (3 over list), got 3 more yesterday, and have several showings today. Realtor put in the listing on Saturday night that they were accepting offers until 4pm today.

[Ksyrup]

They ended up taking an offer $15K over list, plus the buyer is paying part of closing costs. And apparently the whole "Why I want this house" essay thing is real because they had several of those with the offers too.

Crazy.

[thesloppy]

I hear a lot of these stories about massive numbers of over-asking-price bids, and I also hear that a lot of these issues are the result of corporate interests buying up housing, but those two stories never seem to meet....like I never hear any stories about someone you know selling their house to a bank, or even being part of these negotiations, so I'm wondering if the banks/corporations get around that system entirely?

[Edward64]

Frakking September.

It's these times when "dollar cost averaging" is good with 401k contributions but it still sucks.

My house price went up some so that's a consolation prize.

[Edward64]

Ugly futures. All three are off =1.4%+

[NobodyHere]

Ok fess up, which one of you jinxed the market today?

[sabotai]

I sold some stuff on Friday so it could not have been me!

[Edward64]

Ugh. Fugly day.

I think mostly because of Evergrande.

[JPhillips]

Yeah, it sure sounds like most of this is about China and whatever could ripple outwards.

[Edward64]

Although I wouldn't mind if China had a stock market crash, followed by years of recession resulting in a Japan-like lost decade or two ...

But more power to them if they can pull it off. I've read about the real estate bubble, the empty cities etc. Their crackdown on companies is so they can catch-up on many rules & regulations that are (arguably) needed.

So if they really can "de-risk the system", it would be a huge accomplishment.

China expert: 'There’s going to be a lot of pain' before Evergrande saga is over

The Evegrande saga comes amid a Chinese government crackdown on various sectors, and Miller noted that Beijing wants to teach the domestic market a lesson without causing too much damage globally.

"If you want to teach a lesson, you have to cause pain," Miller said. "But at the end of the day, you don't want the contagion to hit all sides of the Chinese economy. And one of the things that Beijing can do ... is be able to step in and order lenders to lend and order suppliers to supply and order bond holders to negotiate."
:
Miller noted that Beijing is ultimately trying to address perceived risks to the country's economy.

"Right now, there is a paradigm shift going on right now where China is willing to accept lower growth in order to de-risk the system," he said. "It's been a reform effort that has pushed off for years, but it looks like it's begun."

[Edward64]

The Hang Seng and Shanghai was slightly positive today. Hang Seng did drop yesterday 2%+ but Shanghai was slightly positive.

Not sure what to make of why the difference between US and China markets. I wonder if its because the Evergrande news (and concerns) is not widely publicized in China/HK or maybe, the western media is really overplaying it.

US futures are solidly up so there's that.

EDIT: Reading some more, apparently there is a holiday in China. Interest on some loans are due on Thu ...

[sterlingice]

Yeah, Chinese stock market was closed yesterday and today:
2021 Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) | Market Holidays | TradingHours.com

So this hasn't played out on their market yet

SI

[albionmoonlight]

This story always seems to play out

Authoritarian-ish regime with small economy uses central planning to grow economy

Small economy shows amazing growth in percentage terms

People start to worry about this new economy overtaking the free market economy. We see stories about their government directing enormous investments in infrastructure that make pundits write articles like "Why America is getting left behind"

Then the new economy gets large enough that we are all reminded why free markets >>> central planning

[Edward64]

Nice day so far. We need about another 4-5 of these to get back to even.

Frakking Sept.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by sabotai

I sold some stuff on Friday so it could not have been me!

I put some money in my index funds yesterday so today is my fault.

[Edward64]

With China's really, really anti-bitcoin stance, is this the end of bitcoin-and-like for the foreseeable future?

I know there are smaller countries making it legal tender but they are essentially irrelevant and gambling. Without China, there is one less major impetus for bitcoin acceptance.

[Flasch186]

I think it makes it worth more globally


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[Edward64]

Going to get a drink tonight.

Ugly day.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Going to get a drink tonight.

Ugly day.

I'll join ya!

[sovereignstar v2]

What's the use of checking the stock market every day? Are you close to retirement or looking to make some quick cash?

[sterlingice]

Degenerate gamblers gotta gamble

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

What's the use of checking the stock market every day? Are you close to retirement or looking to make some quick cash?

Both.

A -2.8% or -2% in Nasdaq and S&P would make most take notice.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

What's the use of checking the stock market every day? Are you close to retirement or looking to make some quick cash?

Probably the same reason I watch the Lions every week. I'm a masochist and it gives me a reason to drink.

[NobodyHere]

Good riddance to September

[Kodos]

Wake me up, when September ends. Or maybe 7 hours after that.