COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Kodos]

Sorry to hear that, PilotMan. I hope you recover soon.

[Thomkal]

Sorry to hear this PM hope you get over it quickly

[AnalBumCover]

I just got it, after having avoided it for two years. Even managed to escape it when my wife and daughter had it a couple of months ago. I could've got it from a variety of sources. We spent a week in Cancun, but then shortly afterwards we met up with my siblings to share stories of their own international travels. Three of us got hit.

I'm on the mend now, but I was pretty much knocked out these past three days. One thing I remember was turning on Disney+ to watch Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, and then waking up to the closing credits.

[albionmoonlight]

The slow process of science is necessary to help make sure things are safe. But it can be kind of demoralizing when the vaccine approval process lags so far behind the actual mutations of the virus: https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/healt...ter/index.html

By the time an omicron-aware vaccine hits the shelves, we will have all already gotten omicron.

[Lathum]

My wife had her team meeting this week. Just called me and told me her admin tested positive. She’s been right next to the admin the last three days. Said her throat feels scratchy. Only good thing is she decided to stay at the hotel during the meeting instead of commute so me and the kids should be good.

[Edward64]

I did a lot of travelling in Europe and Asia last month. Interacted with a bunch of people, travelled through 7 different airports (some multiple times and with long layovers), in 5-8+ hour crowded flights, and I'm somewhat amazed I didn't catch anything.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My wife had her team meeting this week. Just called me and told me her admin tested positive. She’s been right next to the admin the last three days. Said her throat feels scratchy. Only good thing is she decided to stay at the hotel during the meeting instead of commute so me and the kids should be good.

That is exactly how all 4 of us started. It's scratchy throat, and then the next day is a little worse, by day 4-5 you're hitting peak, and then a slow drop. I'm finally feeling a bit better today, but it's been a shitty week.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I did a lot of travelling in Europe and Asia last month. Interacted with a bunch of people, travelled through 7 different airports (some multiple times and with long layovers), in 5-8+ hour crowded flights, and I'm somewhat amazed I didn't catch anything.

So you're the one that brought it all back to the European airports and beyond.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

So you're the one that brought it all back to the European airports and beyond.

Hey, I wore masks and took the tests when I was supposed to.

Darn, is ramping up again? I've not kept up with what's happening in Europe. Sorry to hear, I was thinking maybe visiting France or Belgium sometime in Nov/Dec (I've been wanting to visit the Christmas markets again, the ones we have in the US are "rubbish").

[QuikSand]

Good thread…

https://twitter.com/bob_wachter/stat...wImN2dup4cYM9Q

[QuikSand]

More perspective on where this is trending, and what the “long COVID” construct really may amount to (T cell deterioration):

Get Ready for the Forever Plague | The Tyee

[sterlingice]

I'm ready to go back to the non-interesting times of history

SI

[albionmoonlight]

No one has ever explained to me why it made sense to give up.

Everyone who wasn't willfully blind knew that "NaTuRal ImMUnIty" didn't make sense with the way this virus works.

And, yeah, some truckers didn't like that some private businesses were encouraging masks, so we had to get rid of those.

But why not install air filters in schools? Even the truckers seemed to not be against that. But we just . . . didn't.

We quit.

[sterlingice]

If we keep fighting, it reminds us that we're fighting a battle with wins and losses. Instead, if we quit, we can pretend it is just a way of life or something.

I know I'm not the only one in a relationship where we're at different levels of comfort with regards to doing things in public. And it's not like my wife is some dimwitted mouth breather, but she just wants to be done with it. And there is a lot of (faux?) calculus being thrown around about mental health vs risk. And I know we're a lot later to the game in this argument than a lot of people who had this a year and a half ago.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

We've had since March 2020 to improve indoor air quality. It wasn't a cost thing. We've spent trillions fighting this disease.

We just didn't do the thing that everyone agrees would really help and that even the MAGA types don't seem to object to.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

But why not install air filters in schools? Even the truckers seemed to not be against that. But we just . . . didn't.

We quit.

Wasn't there money allotted for that? I thought there was pretty big blocks of funds set aside for school upgrades. Was I just imagining that?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Wasn't there money allotted for that? I thought there was pretty big blocks of funds set aside for school upgrades. Was I just imagining that?

Maybe. I just haven't seen any of it actually being done. At least in our area.

[QuikSand]

I think an awful lot of relatively reasonable people have gone through a real cycling of their views on COVID:

-initially trust public health leaders/messaging (scorn those who don't) and mostly follow the guidance - social distancing, stay home when you can, wash hands a lot, wear some sort of mask

-as things dragged on, and the messaging seemed to get diffuse (still need masks outdoors? is it transmitting via surfaces? social protests are so important that no-masks is acceptable there?) there was some erosion due to more than mere fatigue ... also the urgency of the initial "flatten the curve" goal seemed to dissipate somewhere around here

-once we got a vaccine announcement, to most of us it felt like "we did it" and we'd just make it through the weeks ahead, and this was over - that's mostly how we believe(d) vaccines to work

-then the sluggish roll-out of the vaccine itself and the anti-vax movement erupts, and we were angry -- I got my vax, but that a-hole didn't, and now it's still not safe for me to go out to eat without a mask or whatever

-public health guidance and messaging started to further crumble and become very hard to pin down... does the vaccine mean I cannot get the virus? or that it's nearly impossible? or just reduce my symptoms? breakthrough cases made disproportionately large news, making it feel like the whole vaccine efforts was ineffective... so further erosion of "trust our public health leaders" there

-once we got to basically "those willing to vaccinate did so" we felt like we (we, actual human Americans, rather than hypothetical in-our-best-interest actors from a simulation of rational people) can't really beat this... then we started to slide into new variants, and it was hard psychologically to make peace with really moving backward to restrictions and mandates and masking again

-the feeling that most cases are mild/trivial became persuasive, especially among the vaccinated/boosted... very understandable, and to a large extent that was indeed the purpose of the vaccine... yielding an awful lot of "if i get it, i get it, so be it" (and we will charitably grant a parenthetical or implied "...and I am not likely to expose someone especially vulnerable if I do get it)

-that momentum has continued to play out, abetted by public health guidance that feels (to me) politically driven suggesting masking and other simple protections have outlasted their usefulness...and many people took their lead to offramp from taking all this seriously at that point

-the reasonable person isn't the one who stood up and shouted on the plane when they announced no more air travel mask mandate... but the person who responded to that additional bit of "relax now" guidance by, basically, relaxing

-and data on everything is really hard to understand at this point... what value does an overall positivity testing number give us, now that most testing is at-home and unreported? how effective are (or were), say, school masking policies with real world kids? if three of the 40 people at my grocery store are walking around positive, what are the chances i pick it up while i shop alongside them and how does masking, vaccine, or anything else alter that? reasonable people are at the *shurg* point on most of this, now.

-and with so much toothpaste out of the tube at this point... if you're still wearing a mask to a routine visit to a store, turning down travel opportunities, and so forth... you're not in step with the world around you and are increasingly dismissed as "the crazy ones" and receive sneers and comments like "you have to just live your life"

-meanwhile transmission rates are super high, genuinely scary data is coming in about the long-term severity of many of these mild cases, even the simplest counter-measures are way down, and we are uninterested in making burdensome changes (like ventilation improvements in schools) ... this combination of outcomes feels so far gone from May of 2020, but it's a story that sort of wrote itself bit by bit

[albionmoonlight]

That is a really really good post. I agree with it completely.

I'll add that it really sucks that it looks like the real legacy/problem with COVID is Long COVID and not acute deaths/severe disease.

Because--even at the best of times--we are really bad at properly assessing long term risks vs short term risks (the classic person afraid of flying who will drive across country instead despite the risks of a serious traffic accident being greater than a plane crash; or the person who will consume tons of saturated fats and refined sugars for decades). And this is decidedly not the best of times.

[sterlingice]

Yeah, I think QS nailed it, unfortunately.

I'm a stubborn cuss so I keep masking, we're still not doing many indoor activities, and our travel is still well below pre-pandemic levels (we went on our first place since 2019 a month ago). But that's absolutely caused friction in our household and distance in our social groups and it's exactly what you've described.

Instead, as am said, we've just given up. Hell, we changed the definition of what a "high risk county" is and half the country is red right now. In the middle of a summer. A few months after the winter containing our two deadliest months of the entire pandemic with a variant that seemingly infected more than half the population.

But damned if I know the answer.

SI

[Edward64]

So from what I'm gathering, you guys think it's too early to take off masks and the overall sense that public is becoming too lax?

We're at about 76% vaccinated for 18+. Masks have been eliminated other than for some government buildings. Pharma's are getting the next batch of shots ready to address more recent strains ... but like flu shots, they won't ever get it near completely right.

So what are you guys proposing?

FWIW, I do think we should continue awareness programs on covid & vaccination (certainly more than what we've been doing). But yeah, I'm in the camp of let's not worry too much about it, take our annual shots, and get back to "regular life" until it heats up again or Fauci raises the alarm.

[QuikSand]

Yes, I think the public is too lax right now.

I'm about to cancel my plans to attend an in-person conference that would require air travel. I wear a mask during my infrequent trips "out" for retail shopping and the like. I don't eat out at restaurants except the occasional outdoor spot.

For work, I have to do a fair bit of in-person meeting, but I wear a mask even in the car with one or two people, and wear my mask up until the time I start to speak at the microphone or lectern.

I am now very much used to being the only person in the meeting audience of 30 who is masked.

[sterlingice]

As has ever been, this isn't about what we're proposing but what the virus is doing. t's continually evolved and we've failed to keep up with it from a public policy standpoint.

I've seen more and more data that corroborates what that article says, which boils down to:
First generation vaccinations are getting less and less effective
"Natural" immunity from infection is lasting for a shorter timeframe as the virus evolves
Getting infected multiple times is worse on the body, not something that gives you "better" immunity
This also increases your risk of long COVID, which is, arguably, the more widespread damage from COVID and something we have basically no treatment for

And if the response to that is "well, what's the endgame", the answer is simply "I don't know". I'm acting based on what the virus is doing. And there is no "if we all just do X, the virus will do Y" ironclad promise that can be given to people.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

My friend's nephew is going on a school trip to Europe this summer. My friend asked how the group is going to handle COVID and travel. They responded that they are not going to test anyone regardless of symptoms and that they are not going to disrupt any travel plans for any reason.

So I'm not sure what I would advocate. But I know that we have gone WAY WAY too far in the other direction.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

More perspective on where this is trending, and what the “long COVID” construct really may amount to (T cell deterioration):

Get Ready for the Forever Plague | The Tyee

That was a scary article.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

As has ever been, this isn't about what we're proposing but what the virus is doing. t's continually evolved and we've failed to keep up with it from a public policy standpoint.

I've seen more and more data that corroborates what that article says, which boils down to:
First generation vaccinations are getting less and less effective
"Natural" immunity from infection is lasting for a shorter timeframe as the virus evolves
Getting infected multiple times is worse on the body, not something that gives you "better" immunity
This also increases your risk of long COVID, which is, arguably, the more widespread damage from COVID and something we have basically no treatment for

And if the response to that is "well, what's the endgame", the answer is simply "I don't know". I'm acting based on what the virus is doing. And there is no "if we all just do X, the virus will do Y" ironclad promise that can be given to people.

SI

I don't disagree with what you have stated. But the end game is essentially annual "flu/covid" shots, and that we are in the new normal (including a certain level of additional covid deaths) until there is another spike/call for alarm by Fauci and like.

I understand there will also be some people more susceptible to covid and if you feel the need to wear a mask go for it. Yes, some will look at you as weird but even today, I see a fair number of folks wearing masks at my local Kroger & Walmart, and thinking that's here to stay for the foreseeable future.

[QuikSand]

The most transmissible coronavirus subvariant yet, BA.5, is threatening a new wave of infections in the U.S., even among those who recovered from the virus fairly recently. The risk from Covid is increasing in much of the country, according to the CDC. https://t.co/LRSQENUVXD

— The New York Times (@nytimes) July 7, 2022

[Edward64]

Poking around wanting to know what's planned for Fall re: updated vaccinations/boosters. Article below is from Jul 6 so pretty recent.

FDA advisors recommend COVID vaccine update for fall with Andrea Garcia, JD, MPH | AMA COVID-19 Update Video | AMA

Unger: So in terms of meeting this recommendation, are we now looking largely to Pfizer and Moderna to do that?

Garcia: Yeah. So both Pfizer and Moderna had been working on a booster candidate that combines the existing vaccine with Omicron itself, not its subvariants. However, I think the prevailing view in the meeting is that that vaccine may already be somewhat outdated. So, the companies had been including Omicron BA.1 vaccines in prep for the fall. They indicated that switching to a BA.4-BA.5 design could delay their introduction.

Unger: Wow. So is there a vaccine already in the works?

Garcia: So Pfizer said that they would have a substantial amount of a BA.4-BA.5 vaccine ready for distribution by that first week in October, which is good news. Moderna said it would be late October, early November before its modified vaccine will be ready. I just want to be clear here that the advisors are not recommending any change to that primary vaccine series, so if you need that primary vaccine, that will not be changing. You should go get that vaccine now.

I've had 4 rounds of Moderna. May have to consider Pfizer next time since they'll deliver quicker. Who knows. First world problem.

[Mota]

I find it quite shocking that we are still being vaccinated for OG COVID. That version of the virus hasn't been circulating for what... 1.5 years now? We are so many generations beyond it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Mota

I find it quite shocking that we are still being vaccinated for OG COVID. That version of the virus hasn't been circulating for what... 1.5 years now? We are so many generations beyond it.

OG = Omnicron? I believe the Omnicron "wave" started 4Q 2021.

But your point is taken. There's always that lag between vaccines and latest variant.

[Edward64]

Good to know we are doing study of long term effects. Probably good use of $1.15B.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/long...on-study-.html

The National Institutes of Health is rolling out one of the largest studies in the world to understand long Covid in a high-stakes effort to find definitive answers about a multitude of seemingly unrelated and sometimes debilitating symptoms that have plagued patients and confounded physicians.

The $1.15 billion taxpayer-funded study, called Recover, aims to enroll nearly 40,000 people by the end of this year. It will follow those participants over four years, comparing people with Covid to those who’ve never had it, with the goal of identifying all the long-term symptoms and finding out how the virus is causing them. The Patient-Led Research Collaborative said there were more than 200 long Covid symptoms across 10 organ systems, according to a study published last year in The Lancet.

It’s a massive undertaking, and expectations are high. The size of the budget, breadth, depth and scope of the study are rarely seen in scientific studies.

The study’s conclusions could play a pivotal role in developing diagnostic tests and finding treatments for patients who remain sick months after contracting Covid-19. If the scientists can produce clinical definitions of the various long-term illnesses associated with the virus, patients will stand on firmer ground when trying to convince health insurers to cover their treatments and getting disability claims approved.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Good to know we are doing study of long term effects. Probably good use of $1.15B.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/long...on-study-.html

I agree.

I think that a massive shift of public opinion and orientation and resources away from thinking that we are fighting COVID to realizing that we are fighting Long COVID is the way to go.

There is, of course, a lot of overlap. The best way to stop Long COVID is to prevent people from getting COVID. But the whole focus/mindset needs to be on Long COVID.

[QuikSand]

yup

[sterlingice]

I'm hopeful but not confident that what comes out of long COVID studies is more of a one shot or short term treatment that wipes out the viral reservoirs in the body and also can be translated over to other viruses that have similar effects.

What I fear is more likely is some long term, expensive treatment that only sortof works in a smaller portion of the population, makes it a chronic illness, and has to be taken for the rest of your life.

SI

[stevew]

I’m pretty sure I have it again and I just had it in early May. I don’t have any more tests at the moment.

[Edward64]

FWIW. I'll have to discuss with wife about wearing masks indoors again and doing outdoor seating. My daughter caught it about a month ago.

Wonder why FDA has not yet approved 2nd booster (4th shot) to adults under 50 and only for those 50+.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politic...ss-the-country

The Biden administration is calling on people to exercise renewed caution about COVID-19, emphasizing the importance of getting booster shots for those who are eligible and wearing masks indoors as two new highly transmissible variants are spreading rapidly across the country.
:
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said while the new variants are concerning, with boosters, indoor masking and treatments the country has the tools to keep them from being disruptive.

“We should not let it disrupt our lives,” he said, “but we cannot deny that it is a reality that we need to deal with.”
:
Jha and Fauci said the U.S. is regularly discussing expanding eligibility for a second booster shot to all adults, but that no decision has been made yet.

“It’s a regulatory decision on the part of the FDA,” Fauci said.

Jha said people who are eligible for a booster but haven’t received one shouldn’t wait for forthcoming vaccines targeted at the omicron strain in addition to the original form of the coronavirus. The U.S. has ordered 105 million of those updated shots, which studies show provide better protection against omicron variants, but they won’t be available until the fall.

“Let me be clear, if you get vaccinated today, you’re not going to be ineligible to get the variants specific vaccine, as we get into the later part of fall and winter,” Jha said. “So, this is not a tradeoff, we’ve got plenty. It’s a great way to protect yourself.”

[Edward64]

Okay, scary.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/13/world...-22/index.html

Nearly two-and-a-half years since the coronavirus pandemic began, the most infectious and transmissible variant yet has arrived.

Repeated Covid-19 waves have left millions of people dead, with only vaccines helping to blunt the toll. Now the virus is spreading again — evolving, escaping immunity and driving an uptick in cases and hospitalizations. The latest version of its shape-shifting, BA.5, is a clear sign that the pandemic is far from over.

The newest offshoot of Omicron, along with a closely related variant, BA.4, are fueling a global surge in cases — 30% over the past fortnight, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

What makes BA.5 different? Eric Topol, a cardiologist and professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research, has called BA.5 "the worst version of the virus we've seen." He explained in a recent newsletter: "It takes immune escape, already extensive, to the next level, and, as a function of that, enhanced transmissibility," well beyond earlier versions of Omicron.

In other words, BA.5 can easily evade immunity from previous infections and vaccines, increasing the risk of reinfection.

But then maybe not as scary as first thought.

Though the variant does not appear to lead to more severe illness, in an interview with CNN on Monday, Topol said that given the extent of BA.5's immune evasion, he expects to see an escalation in hospitalizations, as we've seen in Europe and elsewhere that the variant has taken root. "One good thing is it doesn't appear to be accompanied by the ICU admissions and the deaths as previous variants, but this is definitely concerning," he added.

[Ksyrup]

Re the arguments back during 2020-21 about kids killing themselves because of lockdowns and not going to school:

https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/sta...64716426432512

Importantly, we do *not* see the trends predicted moral panic that following the "shutdowns" we would see a wave of suicides, and certainly we did not see a wave of pediatric suicides due to school closures (now with 21 months of measuring).

[QuikSand]

Serious immediate symptoms are one major worry of catching COVID. Most people have processed this, and in many cases have seen enough to have an intuitive sense that they are not at high risk of short term serious symptoms (ER, ICU, RIP).

Serious long term symptoms remain a nearly complete unknown for all of us, and hardly anyone has been able to process this reasonably. Looking around us offers strong evidence that most are simply dialing that risk consideration to near-zero as they weight what to be doing now.

Nearly all my office colleagues (just a dozen or so) have gotten COVID in the last 8 weeks (we have been working mainly remotely) as a small sample size - mostly educated, and all vaccinated. All mild cases, thankfully, but long term is unknown.

[Edward64]

I do wonder how come 4th shot (2nd booster) has not yet been approved for < 50. It's been April since it was approved for 50+.

I assume there's been no significant adverse impact to the 50+ population so why the hold up? And per the PBS article I linked to

“Let me be clear, if you get vaccinated today, you’re not going to be ineligible to get the variants specific vaccine, as we get into the later part of fall and winter,” Jha said. “So, this is not a tradeoff,

And another article I linked said Pfizer and Moderna said their more updated vaccines will ready in Oct and late Oct/Nov.

So guessing FDA wanted to wait for the updated version before letting everyone get a shot (e.g. so there is less vaccination fatigue)?

[RainMaker]

Maybe funding is an issue? This is from a couple of months back but said they would limit it to high-risk patients (which seems to be what the 4th shot is limited to) if more funding wasn't approved.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/us-w...e-funding.html

[RainMaker]

I didn't realize that either and was about to book a 4th shot because a lot of people at work have been coming down with it and was surprised I couldn't do it.

Seems inevitable I'll get it so I wouldn't even have a problem just paying for that 4th shot if it meant I wouldn't be feeling like total shit for a week or two.

[Ksyrup]

So, our office's Mr. Rand Paul Covid Talking Points guy just tested positive for the third time. That's officially, anyway. He was sick about 6 weeks ago and has resisted testing in the past, so who knows how many times he's actually had it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So, our office's Mr. Rand Paul Covid Talking Points guy just tested positive for the third time. That's officially, anyway. He was sick about 6 weeks ago and has resisted testing in the past, so who knows how many times he's actually had it.

It is concerning how you can catch it again. You'd think the antibodies from the first time and/or from vaccinations would work well.

I'm sure there's a scientific explanation as it does seem to be happening. But still weird.

[SirFozzie]

The main shot and two-three boosters isn't enough (especially if you take immuno compromising medicine). I just got informed that I am COVID-positive. Time to hope my doc can get me into the infusion with the monoclonal antibodies, because several of my medicines interact poorly with the standard treatment program.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Edward64

It is concerning how you can catch it again. You'd think the antibodies from the first time and/or from vaccinations would work well.

I'm sure there's a scientific explanation as it does seem to be happening. But still weird.

An article linked earlier in the thread basically says each time you get Covid, it weakens your defenses.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/07/...orever-Plague/

COVID is paving the way for other diseases

So the virus is getting better at thwarting vaccines and evading immunity. Although vaccine protection against hospitalization and death remains strong, it is being steadily eroded by Omicron’s subvariants. Meanwhile protection against severe disease has declined as the effectiveness of our vaccines progressively wanes.

Immunologist Anthony Leonardi, a specialist in T cells, which play a complex role in immune function, predicted such a development nearly two years ago. That’s when he speculated that COVID was destabilizing the immune system by subverting T-cell function.

And that is exactly what many researchers are now finding.

Leonardi bluntly describes the current state of things on Twitter: “There is a cumulative damage from SARS-CoV-2 reinfections, and reinfections are not mild, the virus is intrinsically virulent. Immune memory does not turn a SARS into something like a flu. It remains severe.”

So if each COVID infection depletes T cells and destabilizes immune function and the damage is cumulative, then policies that allow the virus to run riot through the population will not only cause immense suffering but erode public health along with trust in government. The word diabolical comes to mind. The British immunologist Danny Altmann compares the situation to “being trapped on a rollercoaster in a horror film.”

[Edward64]

I like the "trapped on a rollercoaters in a horror film"!

No, I don't feel that way now but I that is a good description on how I felt back in 2020 and 2021 before the vaccines.

But yes, that is how I feel now regarding the stock market

[Ksyrup]

If that's the case, my office buddy has like 3 hit points left.

[sterlingice]

I think it does help to think about things in term of short term vs long term protection, too. In the above, we're talking about long term protection.

However, for short term, each booster (or infection) gives you a couple of months of immunity where your body is primed to fight off infection. But it is short term and the protection wanes fairly quickly.

SI

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

The main shot and two-three boosters isn't enough (especially if you take immuno compromising medicine). I just got informed that I am COVID-positive. Time to hope my doc can get me into the infusion with the monoclonal antibodies, because several of my medicines interact poorly with the standard treatment program.

Man, hope everything goes ok Foz.