01-15-2009, 07:52 PM | #1151 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
Frankly...everyone looks like a wolf. Even heinz isn't clear after Lathum's cryptic nonresponse yesterday to the question of whether the wolf could kill the BG as he is protecting him. That said, I would eat my hat if heinz were the wolf. He's about the only guy I trust right now. Everyone else, you could build a good case against (including myself, obviously).
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
01-15-2009, 07:54 PM | #1152 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
|
01-15-2009, 07:54 PM | #1153 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
Chief's on the block right after you Telle, in my mind
|
01-15-2009, 07:55 PM | #1154 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
wait a second - with lathum's cryptic non-response what if heinze is the wolf and rpi is the janitor and they're playing us?
|
01-15-2009, 07:55 PM | #1155 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
Couldn't you put him before me so that I can actually be around for the villager win?
|
01-15-2009, 07:56 PM | #1156 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
BTW, I'm glad you post this, but then illogically discount it. It's a perfectly legit reason to not go after RPI at that time. That was two votes ago. At that time, we had lots of time left to take a shot or two. Now, we have put our backs against the wall by dallying on trying to guess who's a wolf, rather than ridding of ourselves of the one known baddie (IMO, known, I reject any theories that says he is not the janitor until proven otherwise).
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
01-15-2009, 07:56 PM | #1157 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
or rpi could be the wolf and heinze could be the janitor and heinze could have hooked up with him and be giving him instructions that he's sending to lathum via email on who to kill
|
01-15-2009, 07:56 PM | #1158 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
I don't think RPI is playing anything. I don't think heinz is the wolf though, based on his Day 1 play. But that doesn't necessarily put him beyond suspicion.
|
01-15-2009, 07:56 PM | #1159 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
Oh, dude, don't you dare take us down this road right now.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
01-15-2009, 07:57 PM | #1160 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
FTR, I am trying to ignore Lathum's response to hopefully give us more clarity with our votes. For the most part, it has worked. I probably shouldn't have brought it up.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
01-15-2009, 07:59 PM | #1161 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
lol - i'm one paranoid motherfucker
|
01-15-2009, 07:59 PM | #1162 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
DT, the more wild theories you spin the less I'm comfortable having you in my "likely good" category. Feels like "sowing confusion" to me.
|
01-15-2009, 08:00 PM | #1163 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
Right, you and I both know that jeheinz is as close to cleared as any of us is going to be this game.
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
01-15-2009, 08:07 PM | #1164 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
eh - i'm always one to spin crazy theories. especially as we're getting down here like this towards the end. leave no stone unturned.
*shrug* |
01-15-2009, 08:10 PM | #1165 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
|
01-15-2009, 08:16 PM | #1166 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
ya know what though - kudos to the last wolf - they've done very well to this point in hiding themself. i gotta say that
|
01-15-2009, 08:30 PM | #1167 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Well, since no one's really looking to move to RPI, I guess I'll give up that quest. Willing to switch back to that, though, if anyone's inclined. I really do think it's the best move for us right now.
UNVOTE RPI VOTE TELLE
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
01-15-2009, 08:31 PM | #1168 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
Well I'd move to RPI to save my own skin.. but I don't think there'll be enough movement to make it happen.
|
01-15-2009, 08:35 PM | #1169 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
I don't think there would be either. And we would need two others to go besides us, because, assuming RPI doesn't magically show up and vote, we're at evens right now, and three switches is just a no lynch (which is worse than lynching RPI).
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
01-15-2009, 08:39 PM | #1170 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
Yeah not lynching would be bad. I'd actually prefer to be lynched over having that happen.. as a no lynch seriously hurts the village, even more than losing a villager.
|
01-15-2009, 08:58 PM | #1171 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
Well so long all. I would recommend looking at Chief next, and then Abe.
|
01-15-2009, 09:00 PM | #1172 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
deadline
|
01-15-2009, 09:09 PM | #1173 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
Telle 5 Jeff (1062), Abe (1096) JEHeinze (1133) DT (1147) CR (1167)
CR 1 Telle ( 1070) After a back and forth day you all decide Telle must be a wolf, or in cahoots with them. You string her up and lynch her, but nothing much happens. You all look around, no one willing to make eye contact. |
01-15-2009, 09:11 PM | #1174 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
You all wake up in the morning to find Jeff's mangled body, it looks like he put up a good fight, but in the end he became somethings dinner.
|
01-15-2009, 09:12 PM | #1175 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
My next vote is relatively easy. Anyone disagree with heading CR's direction?
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
01-15-2009, 09:13 PM | #1176 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
I don;t believe the wolves put two votes on EF on Day One. Everybody here but CR voted for EF. My guess is they spread out.
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
01-15-2009, 09:15 PM | #1177 |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
|
Good luck villagers!
|
01-15-2009, 09:17 PM | #1178 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
Thanks, sorry to kill you.
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
01-15-2009, 09:18 PM | #1179 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
Chief Rum is where I want to head too.
VOTE CHIEF RUM |
01-15-2009, 09:19 PM | #1180 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
Quote:
not at all. i was on him earlier until it became apparent that there was no support there.
__________________
Get bent whoever hacked my pw and changed my signature. |
|
01-15-2009, 09:22 PM | #1181 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
I can acknowledge there is logic to your stance, Abe, but you're wrong. I don't know who the last wolf is, and I can't explain how the wolves have voted, so I can't really counter what you're saying.
All I know is, I am not the last wolf. And I still think our best move is to take out RPI. He's dangerous enough today. If we fail to lynch a wolf tomorrow, and RPI suddenly turns up, we lose. Heck, if Lathum's rule set is on the mark, the last wolf is the brutal. That might be the tiebreaker in the event RPI doesn't even show up (as is likely), and Monday's vote is one versus one versus (absent). If we take care of RPI, guaranteed we have two good guys to one bad guy, and I think it will be pretty clear at that point who the wolf is. What we can't afford to do with this vote is lynch a villager, that I know for sure.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
01-15-2009, 09:24 PM | #1182 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Everyone left in the game, BTW, is pretty much an acknowledged vet. I certainly hope that we will get some discussion going, and not just lock into me. Obviously, that is my fervent desire, as the intended target, but I am convinced that if we lynch a non-RPI villager today, we lose.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
01-15-2009, 09:29 PM | #1183 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
hmmm - guess i need to breakdown the numbers and see where we're at...but i can see the logic in your theory CR.
confound you - you're being very tough to read this game |
01-15-2009, 09:37 PM | #1184 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
This is actually the game where I would like to be easy to read, since then maybe people would be more willing to consider that I am not the last wolf. But I play my game with logic for the most part, and I understand the logic has a lean in my direction, as Abe pointed out. I have fought that before (both as wolf and villager), and generally I lose out. Of course, when logic leads to the wrong answer, it's because we don't have enough information. It's doing so here, too, but I don't think we have any more information coming, except what we can drum up.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
01-15-2009, 09:42 PM | #1185 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
I think going rpi-fan may end up killing us now. I wanted to do it earlier, so we could just get it over with. Not sure that today it will be good though. I think we may need to start gambling.
Players left: CR me DT jeheinz rpifan Let's assume for the moment that rpifan and jeheinz are not included in the last wolf. One is likely the janitor and the other is the closest thing to cleared we have. That leaves: Me CR DT Well, I know I'm good. Whichever of CR and DT is not a wolf knows they are good. That means we have, from my vantage point, a 50/50 shot of hitting a wolf by voting either DT or CR. Note that another player (either CR or DT) which is a wolf will create a 50/50 list out of CR and me (for DT) or a 50/50 list out of me and DT (for CR). We cannot kill rpi-fan today. Here's why. Kill rpi-fan today. Tonight one of the remaining three players is killed. Tomorrow, 2-1 odds vs. wolf. 50/50 chance of taking him down. One shot. Leave rpi fan alive today. Take our 50/50 chance now. Tonight villager dies. Miss and tommorrow we have rpifan, wolf and villager, with rpifan not voting. Means 1:1 tie. No lynch. Wolf kills at night. Hmm. That does not work. Either way it looks like we have a 50/50 shot once. Might as well kill rpifan today, because then tomorrow, the final three will have more info than we have today. Fair enough. I meant to talk myself into voting CR but I just talked myself into voting rpifan. vote rpifan
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
01-15-2009, 10:01 PM | #1186 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
nice breakdown Abe.
I know I'm a villager too fwiw. |
01-15-2009, 10:03 PM | #1187 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
Oh, and if a bunch vote rpifan, just in case
Vote nightfall
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
01-15-2009, 10:06 PM | #1188 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
What do you know? I know I'm a villager, too. Obviously, one of the five of us (well, four at best, we can discount RPI) is lying. Not sure there's much point to saying "I'm a villager" anymore, since we all know we are either being honest when we say it, or the one guy who isn't will lie and say he is a villager, too. Abe has run down the logic on an RPI Fan lynch quite well, I think. It's much the same stuff I have been harping on, although I admit, I didn't even think about the tie vote=no lynch aspect of the last vote.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
01-15-2009, 11:00 PM | #1189 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
Now that I think about it, I'll back off nightfall in case we want to talk this through a few times.
Vote Nightfall
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
01-15-2009, 11:17 PM | #1190 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Catonsville, MD
|
Sorry, meant unvote nightfall for now
__________________
Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent |
01-15-2009, 11:32 PM | #1191 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Heh...kinda thought that's what you meant.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
01-16-2009, 07:33 AM | #1192 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
All right, I have to leave for work, so I will be out most of the day. I'll be back before deadline, though. Here's my vote.
VOTE RPI Same reasons as listed, with the added emphasis on Abe's logic a few posts above this one.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
01-16-2009, 07:56 AM | #1193 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
|
Ugh. So much for actually letting vote analysis guide me down the path to victory.
|
01-16-2009, 08:12 AM | #1194 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
|
Ok, so let me type this through here...
This is going to be probably very long and highly convoluted (sp?), as usual. Assumption - The wolf has figured out with a relatively high probability who the janitor is, or knew it from the start (because if I don't assume this I might be typing all day here...) Basically just ruling out the possibility that the wolf would accidentally kill his helper. Small enough chance that we should just discount it rather than consider it feasible. Case A - We lynch RPI 1. He's the janitor. Wolf eats villager. 2 villagers left versus the wolf. 50/50 shot. 2. He's the wolf. Winnah. 3. He's a villager. Wolf eats villager. We're left with wolf/villager/janitor, win for the wolves via 2:1 lynch vote. Case B - We lynch one of Abe/CR/DT, who ends up being a wolf 1. Winnah. Case C - We lynch one of Abe/CR/DT, who ends up being the janitor 1. Wolf eats villager. RPI doesn't show. We're left with RPI/Wolf/Villager. 1:1 no lynch. Wolf eats one of the two, wolf win. 2. Wolf eats villager. RPI somehow shows. We're left with RPI/Wolf/Villager. Coin flip, though if RPI is alive and known to not be the janitor, I'd actually think we'd be about 75/25 to win that. Still, I'm not banking on RPI somehow showing up. Case D - We lynch one of Abe/CR/DT, who ends up being a villager 1. Wolf eats villager. We're RPI as janitor/Wolf/Villager. 1:1 no lynch, wolf win 2. Wolf eats villager. We're RPI as villager/Wolf/Janitor. 2:0 lynch of RPI, wolf win. |
01-16-2009, 08:14 AM | #1195 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
|
So we either let it all ride lynching one of the three of you or we lynch RPI and have a presumed 50/50 shot come tomorrow. I like to think we should let it ride, but I just don't know.
Still thinking... |
01-16-2009, 08:30 AM | #1196 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
|
Yeah, I think RPI is the safest play at this point
Vote RPI-fan |
01-16-2009, 09:17 AM | #1197 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
lynching one of you (heinze/abe/chief) yields us a 33% chance at the wolf. waiting till tomorrow makes it 50/50.
THIS would be the time that I called for for lynching RPI. That's the play to make. That being said - I think we need to begin to engage in serious discussion about who the wolf likely is among the 4 of us. I've been leaning Chief Rum for some time because of some of the analysis that has been done. However I'm also wary of the fact that it could be Abe, who has seemigly done a very good job of skating by most suspiscion without having much attention thrown his way. I suppose I could fathom a twist where heinze is the wolf, or heinze is the janitor and RPI is the wolf, but I've got to think that those are the lowest probability possibilities. I understand that people may think that it is me. I don't think my voting record in this game has been amazing, but then again nobody's has. I have tried to provide analysis and spur discussion about different things. I've definately been unafraid to state a position and stick to it (for example on RPI) despite that getting me flack. Just my opinion, but that would hardly be the play of the last wolf, inviting scrutiny. Here's a question - why wasn't heinze killed last night? Isn't he supposedly the most "cleared" person left? So it would be the obvious wolf-play to take him out and thus leave us with just 4 people who are pretty much uncleared. So why was he left alive and Jeff was eaten? Think about that guys. Whoever the wolf is of the 4/5 of us left knows enough to make that play. Maybe you accuse me of trying to sow confusion and turn on me, but that just hit me as something very weird. |
01-16-2009, 09:25 AM | #1198 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Fresno, CA
|
Weren't you the one tossing around those theories about me before last night, while no one has really talked much of Jeff's possibilities at all this game?
And as far as my wolfiness, I think my play stands for itself. My story about RPI is 100% true, hell the Seer confirmed it. Danny was guarding me the night the lone wolf made the kill. Maybe Lathum didn't want to confirm my clearance for the sake of the game. But still, we might as well see the plan all the way through. Sure, we could take a stab at CR, or Abe, or you, or me but I highly doubt any of us are all that comfortable putting one of us that much ahead of the other 3. So we're in effect giving ourselves a 25% chance today rather than a 50% chance tomorrow. |
01-16-2009, 09:27 AM | #1199 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
Heinze - I'm still planning on voting RPI today (fact I should unvote and do that). Just trying to get everything out there so we can discuss and hopefully make the right choice.
|
01-16-2009, 09:28 AM | #1200 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Massachusetts
|
UNVOTE CHIEF RUM
VOTE RPI-FAN |
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
|
|