2012 MLB Thread (Cabrera Gets Triple Crown, first since Yaz 1967)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I don't think Braves fans will end up missing him.

You obviously haven't seen Delgado or Jurrjens this year

[larrymcg421]

Jurrjens is obviously a mess right now, but Delgado is carrying a 9.5 K/9 rate right now. Sure, the 5.4 BB/9 is a major concern, but the .362 BABIP is also hurting him. His HR/9 and K/BB are both better than last year.

There's absolutely no reason they should've kept Lowe, especially with his price tag.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Umm ... is my sense of humor really that unknown around here?

It's not like expressing amazement at Lowe's win total is a unique thought, hell the only reason I noticed it was because the AJC ran a story about it. The fact the he's somehow - no matter how - ended up with four wins is about four more than most Braves fans figured they'd ever see him get again.

He was beyond atrocious for big chunks of last season, unloading him for a bag of balls & some pine tar was almost certainly a bargain ... I just thought the sight of him being 4-1 was one of the more unlikely things I'd seen in a little while so I mentioned it.

[Ksyrup]

It's not that unlikely if you realize there's little correlation between wins and pitching effectively.

[jbergey22]

With an xFIP of 4.56 this Lowe magic appears to be short lived. He was normally in the mid 3 range with the Braves so he is actually pitching less effectively despite what the traditional numbers may say.

Similiar start to Brad Penny of last year.

[Swaggs]

An interesting article about a documentary regarding Latin American ballplayers' ages:Baseball Prospectus | Changing Speeds: Pelotero, or, There's Sano Business Like Show Business

The article "spoils" the documentary (if anyone is intent on seeing it), but it gives a good backstory on how/why Miguel Angel Sano ended up signing with the Twins instead of the Pirates.

[Swaggs]

Dola...

It really sucks that we missed out on him. Checking him out, he hit 20 homers in rookie ball last season (as a 17/18 year old) and already has 6 HR in A ball as an 18/19 year old) and has had an OPS near 1.000 over the past two years.

[Suicane75]

Pedro Alvarez got a start against a pretty good lefty tonight (only his 2nd start vs a lefty this season) and crushed another homer. If he has turned the corner it might be the biggest boon to the Pirates organization since McCuthens arrival. The ball just jumps off his bat, and for the past 10 days or so he's been making regular contact. They obviously have a long way to go but him being hot makes them a much more enjoyable team to watch.

[Crapshoot]

Ryan Braun hit 3 HR's tonight.

That's impressive, and a night you'd expect from a good power hitter once every 5 years or so. Except... he did it in PETCO.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?c_...ic_id=28033182

[stevew]

I'm cautiously optimistic. If Pedro turns a corner, we could easily platoon ourselves to 86 wins this year I think.

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by stevew

I'm cautiously optimistic. If Pedro turns a corner, we could easily platoon ourselves to 86 wins this year I think.

What's the word on Martee? Does he project closer to a Cutch or a Tabata?

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Ryan Braun hit 3 HR's tonight.

That's impressive, and a night you'd expect from a good power hitter once every 5 years or so. Except... he did it in PETCO.

Head & Shoulders Mane Men | MIL@SD: Braun goes 4-for-5 with six RBIs vs. Padres - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia

And he gapped a triple in his last AB. I noticed for the first time that San Diego kind of has a grandstand in right center where it's the wall, grass, bleachers. It was weird seeing people run down the bleachers and pretty much right up to the wall.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

What's the word on Martee? Does he project closer to a Cutch or a Tabata?

Defense is supposedly strong enough to send Cutch to LF. Id say he's a incrementally better Presley with more speed. He keeps hitting for high average, but doesnt walk.

[k0ruptr]

5 Starts(4 against Boston,Detroit,Baltimore,and Texas), 3-1 record, 1.67 era (AL leader) .69 WHIP (AL leader) .162 BAA (AL Leader) 2 CGs (again AL leader) 1 Shutout, 37 innings 7 runs allowed. ERA+ of 252.

EDIT: after more research, I'm unsure of the AL Leader stuff - I can't figure out if Drew Smyly Qualifies or not...

Regardless, these are Jake Peavy's stats in April. Not as insane crazy good as some of the NL guys, but after these last few years I am ecstatic.

Also, that being said - What Joe Saunders is doing so far is pretty incredible. and Darvish sure is learning quick. Getting better each game..

Also: #2 cool amazing stat that I never woulda guessed: White Sox lead MLB in team WHIP on the road @ 0.98

[k0ruptr]

dola

Can Kemp win the triple crown?

Can Hamilton?

[Lathum]

Kemp yes, Hamilton, no way. Pretty much a given he will get hurt at some point

[k0ruptr]

I'd really like to see him stay healthy for 150+ games.

[k0ruptr]

Kemp can if Ethier doesn't steal the RBI crown. especially when they start walking Kemp every 4th PA

[lordscarlet]

I don't know if there are any here, but for any Bryce Harper haters out there, he did something pretty cool last night; he stepped into a softball game on the National Mall to take a few swings.



For the full story: Bryce Harper plays softball on the mall - DC Sports Bog - The Washington Post

[k0ruptr]

I feel like he is going to keep doing random neat stuff like this right up until about 2016 when he signs some 100+ million dollar contract.

I think its awesome that in his young career hes just having fun and just enjoying his time playing baseball

[k0ruptr]

dola, that first swing was hilarious.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by stevew

Defense is supposedly strong enough to send Cutch to LF. Id say he's a incrementally better Presley with more speed. He keeps hitting for high average, but doesnt walk.

He's got a lot better frame than Presley (6'2 vs 5'10), so I could see him developing into a 20+ HR guy if he gets a little stronger. I'd say his upside is a little speedier McCutchen with a better arm but less plate patience and a little worse contact.

I think Tabata has more power potential than any of the Pirates' OFs, but he needs to stay healthy.

What I don't get about the Pirates front office is that they play in a ballpark tailor-made for left-handed hitters, but they never seem to seek out either lefty hitters or lefty pitchers (to negate opponents' lefty hitters).

[Chief Rum]

Angels win!! Angels win!!

(Sorry, doesn't happen much...)

[sterlingice]

Royals don't lose! Royals don't lose!

(Again, see previous post)

SI

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Ryan Braun hit 3 HR's tonight.

That's impressive, and a night you'd expect from a good power hitter once every 5 years or so. Except... he did it in PETCO.

Head & Shoulders Mane Men | MIL@SD: Braun goes 4-for-5 with six RBIs vs. Padres - Video | MLB.com: Multimedia

Steroids are a helluva drug.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

Regardless, these are Jake Peavy's stats in April. Not as insane crazy good as some of the NL guys, but after these last few years I am ecstatic.

On the plus side, Peavy is throwing a little harder this year and his walk rate is easily a career-best.

On the down side, he's benefiting from an unsustainable low BABIP of .206 and HR/FB% of 1.8%. When those rates regress, his overall numbers are going to look very similar to his last couple of years. And unfortunately, along with his walk rate being a career-low, so is his groundball rate.

So basically, Peavy is the same guy as he was the last couple of years, with a lower walk-rate countered by a lower groundball rate.

[k0ruptr]

I'd wager a sig bet or something that his final ERA is closer to 3.5 then 4.5

His BABIP is rediculously low yes but his control is extremely tighter then the last cpl years. Also he's healthy. Saber metrics tell a story. But watching him so far this year has me leaning towards more Peavy of old then recent.

[Ramzavail]

uh oh Longoria.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

I'd wager a sig bet or something that his final ERA is closer to 3.5 then 4.5

His BABIP is rediculously low yes but his control is extremely tighter then the last cpl years. Also he's healthy. Saber metrics tell a story. But watching him so far this year has me leaning towards more Peavy of old then recent.

Yes, his control is better. But that has no bearing on his BABIP - that's luck and defense (and given a slight boost due to his strong fly ball tendencies so far). And his home run rate is ridiculously low, especially considering his career low groundball rate. Again, basically luck.

The most encouraging sign (if you're a Peavy/White Sox fan) is that his velocity is up from last year. It hasn't shown up in an improved K rate - he doesn't appear to be missing bats any more than the previous 2 years - but he's walking less, which obviously is a benefit.

I'm not trying to take a dump on Peavy fans, but the in-depth numbers strongly suggest his ERA is greatly benefiting from luck right now.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

Saber metrics tell a story.

Sabermetrics do not tell a story. Sabermetrics expose whether the narratives being told about what's happening are real or not.

[k0ruptr]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Yes, his control is better. But that has no bearing on his BABIP - that's luck and defense (and given a slight boost due to his strong fly ball tendencies so far). And his home run rate is ridiculously low, especially considering his career low groundball rate. Again, basically luck.

The most encouraging sign (if you're a Peavy/White Sox fan) is that his velocity is up from last year. It hasn't shown up in an improved K rate - he doesn't appear to be missing bats any more than the previous 2 years - but he's walking less, which obviously is a benefit.

I'm not trying to take a dump on Peavy fans, but the in-depth numbers strongly suggest his ERA is greatly benefiting from luck right now.

Yes definitely a lot of pitchers luck in there, I agree. I also agree on velocity being a good sign, but IMO the most encouraging sign is 2 complete games in a row. thats a sign of a healthy Peavy.

[k0ruptr]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Sabermetrics do not tell a story. Sabermetrics expose whether the narratives being told about what's happening are real or not.

The good thing about science is it's true whether you believe in it or not.

[Subby]

Look for me and one of my kids on tv tonight - somehow scored front row tix to Nats v. Diamondbacks. Left of home plate from the pitcher's vantage point.

Leaving the house now to take it all in...

[k0ruptr]

Pls make a sign saying "Nats looking good early season" and "BHarper4Heisman"

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by k0ruptr

I also agree on velocity being a good sign, but IMO the most encouraging sign is 2 complete games in a row. thats a sign of a healthy Peavy.

I think both of those things are encouraging signs regarding his health. Enjoy it while it's happening, because Peavy is another guy that, like Pineda, has a pitching motion that makes my arm hurt just watching it.

I like him though - he was a helluva pitcher when he first came up with the Padres.

[k0ruptr]

Sometimes I think about it and it's like ,well duh I should give him the benefit of the doubt, he only won the Cy Young award 5 seasons ago. And he's only 30 going on 31.

[Ramzavail]

not only Cy Young award, but triple crown

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by Subby

Look for me and one of my kids on tv tonight - somehow scored front row tix to Nats v. Diamondbacks. Left of home plate from the pitcher's vantage point.

Leaving the house now to take it all in...

Seats aren't nearly as good, I just grabbed a fairly cheap set the moment the call-up hit twitter, but I will definitely be there. It's a 30 min bus ride from work, I'm going to try to get there around 6:15 or 6:30 I think.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

What I don't get about the Pirates front office is that they play in a ballpark tailor-made for left-handed hitters, but they never seem to seek out either lefty hitters or lefty pitchers (to negate opponents' lefty hitters).

YOUR COMMENT MAKES LYLE OVERBAY MAD

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Sabermetrics do not tell a story. Sabermetrics expose whether the narratives being told about what's happening are real or not.

Isn't that just a smidge dogmatic? Yes, better than traditional stats, to be sure. However, none have a 1.00 correlation to reality and I have yet to see that stat that allows me to predict winning baseball games at a perfect clip.

SI

[k0ruptr]

I thought he was being sarcastic . Oops

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

YOUR COMMENT MAKES LYLE OVERBAY MAD

Ryan Church feels slighted.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

YOUR COMMENT MAKES LYLE OVERBAY MAD

And you don't want Lyle Overbay to get mad at you and try to hit you. That's like, a 24% chance to get your ass kicked.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Isn't that just a smidge dogmatic? Yes, better than traditional stats, to be sure. However, none have a 1.00 correlation to reality and I have yet to see that stat that allows me to predict winning baseball games at a perfect clip.

SI

Projections and stats aren't the same thing. One predicts the future and one explains the past. Advanced stats do a very good job of explaining hitting and pitching performance, but defense is still in its infancy. Taking Peavy as the example, the stats show what's happening very well. That doesn't mean we can predict with absolute certainty what will happen next month, but we know very clearly why Peavy has done as well as he has this year.

[Suicane75]

Garsh I love the grand old game baseball. Alvarez with another homer tonight.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Garsh I love the grand old game baseball. Alvarez with another homer tonight.

I hope he stays healthy and gets a full season's worth of stats, just to see what kind of abnormal season he'll have. I'm thinking something like 240/280/550 with 35 HR and 250 Ks. Maybe 25 errors if he sticks at 3rd all season, too.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I hope he stays healthy and gets a full season's worth of stats, just to see what kind of abnormal season he'll have. I'm thinking something like 240/280/550 with 35 HR and 250 Ks. Maybe 25 errors if he sticks at 3rd all season, too.

What is going on with him suddenly. He couldnt hit anything last year and the first part of this year. Now he is on fire. Did he change his swing or something?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Isn't that just a smidge dogmatic? Yes, better than traditional stats, to be sure. However, none have a 1.00 correlation to reality and I have yet to see that stat that allows me to predict winning baseball games at a perfect clip.

SI

Once again, it's not about predicting (if there's one thing I wish people would stop, it's this idea that sabermetrics has something to do with seeing the future). It's about explaining. Hence, the "story" - that's an attempt to explain what's already happened. Except 99% of the storytellers out there use forced narrative to explain things that can either be verified or shot down with advanced stats.

[k0ruptr]

As a Hawaii guy, it's really nice to see Jerome Williams pitch great last night, and pretty solid so far this year. 2nd career shut out almost 9 years since his first haha. Glad to see him get another shot.

[lordscarlet]