The Stock Market thread

[sterlingice]

Remember when everyone wanted a la carte cable? Is this basically a hybrid of this?

The first place that can put together a DVR service across multiple apps as well as address the broadcast networks and live sports problem will be the first that gets my business for more than a couple of months at a time. Until then, I'm content to gets Disney+ for 2 months to catch up, then pick up Paramount+ for a month, then HBO for 2 months, etc.

SI

[Edward64]

Not sure why the market reacted negatively to this, haven't we known 50 pts was coming up?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/21/powe...e-for-may.html

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell affirmed the central bank’s determination to bring down inflation and said Thursday that aggressive rate hikes are possible as soon as next month.

“It is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly” to raise interest rates, Powell said while part of an International Monetary Fund panel. “I also think there is something to be said for front-end loading any accommodation one thinks is appropriate. ... I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting.”

Powell’s statements essentially meet market expectations that the Fed will depart from its usual 25-basis-point hikes and move more quickly to tame inflation running at its fastest pace in more than 40 years. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage points.

At its March meeting, the Fed approved a 25-basis-point move, but officials in recent days have said they see a need to move more quickly with consumer inflation running at an annual pace of 8.5%.

[Ksyrup]

Thought this was interesting regarding our discussion of how to "fix" Netflix or where it goes next.

Netflix should start pursuing a live sports strategy, according to analysts I respect. https://t.co/pmRDONbsxt

— John Ourand (@Ourand_SBJ) April 22, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Two years in a row we've gotten a revised property tax assessment notice. Funny, when the economy was in the tank, I don't remember them sending me notice that they were dropping our home's value!

[Hammer]

Just grabbed some Tesla at $828 and Google the other day just under $2400. Shame I didn't wait a little longer on Google as they had poor earnings, but I like the chances of coming out on top in a couple of years time.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Two years in a row we've gotten a revised property tax assessment notice. Funny, when the economy was in the tank, I don't remember them sending me notice that they were dropping our home's value!

Really? Ours did. Every year for about 3 years.

[NobodyHere]

The Feds need to raise interests rates by a half point everyday if this is how the market reacts.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Really? Ours did. Every year for about 3 years.

Nope. It's always been at the amount we bought it at - until they had stats to raise it.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Nope. It's always been at the amount we bought it at - until they had stats to raise it.

Vote out your county assessor!

[Edward64]

It hurts. It really hurts.

[GrantDawg]

Elon Musk's bif to buy Twitter is on hold until he can get more attention.

[Ksyrup]

You mean money. This isn't about spam accounts, it's about the fact that Tesla isn't worth as much right now so he needs more investor money to move forward.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

You mean money. This isn't about spam accounts, it's about the fact that Tesla isn't worth as much right now so he needs more investor money to move forward.

No, I mean attention because that is what he loves. Actually, I have read speculation that he is going to back out the deal to then come back and buy it an even lower evaluation. He is basically going to pay a $1 billion dollar fine to break the contract and save himself $13-14 billion on the purchase. Of course, it is also completely possible he was never going to actually buy Twitter.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

You mean money. This isn't about spam accounts, it's about the fact that Tesla isn't worth as much right now so he needs more investor money to move forward.

Isn't he also heavily into crypto as well?

ETA: And I look at crypto this morning and it seems people are buying on the dip.

[GrantDawg]

Heard on NPR today that in the last two years, 40% of all home transactions have been on behalf of investors. That is a horrifying number.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Heard on NPR today that in the last two years, 40% of all home transactions have been on behalf of investors. That is a horrifying number.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

We've owned our home for just under 2 years and there was a last minute cash offer on the home by an investor and we were very lucky that the family selling took our offer on their realtor's recommendation. They had already moved to Florida and had a contingent offer on a home there. Rather than jump at the money their realtor explained that these investment companies can drag out closing and nit-pick items because they tend to want a home turn key ready for renters when it closes. We guaranteed closing in under 30 days and I think the combination of that and not wanting to sell to an investor got us the house.

[Edward64]

Zillow blew thru our second line in the sand 'will sell house for sure'. Have to come up with a third one now

[GrantDawg]

Yup. Ours up another 15% in the last 3 months.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[BYU 14]

Despite the higher interest rates, ours still went up 3% or almost 14K in the last 30 days, and at this point it is investment companies killing the market for most folks here in the Phoenix metro area.

It is insanity and there needs to be legislation to stop this trend of these big companies driving up the market and pricing middle and class below completely out of it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Despite the higher interest rates, ours still went up 3% or almost 14K in the last 30 days, and at this point it is investment companies killing the market for most folks here in the Phoenix metro area.

It is insanity and there needs to be legislation to stop this trend of these big companies driving up the market and pricing middle and class below completely out of it.

Heck no. NY and SF have been enjoying crazy appreciation. Let's give suburbia (Atlanta) a little bit more leeway to catch up

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Despite the higher interest rates, ours still went up 3% or almost 14K in the last 30 days, and at this point it is investment companies killing the market for most folks here in the Phoenix metro area.

It is insanity and there needs to be legislation to stop this trend of these big companies driving up the market and pricing middle and class below completely out of it.

They're pricing the middle class out of the home buying market and driving up rental prices at the same time. We dumb lucked our way out of renting at the perfect time. The price of renting has gone up so much in this area there's no way we could have put ourselves in position to buy anything close to the house we got if we were still renting. That's ignoring the increasing costs of homes. We're up 50% in 21 months and I'm fairly certain that's low if were to put in the work to stage the house to sell.

[Lathum]

Just checked the Zillow on my house. It has gone up almost 300K since we bought in 2019. That doesn't factor in the improvements we made including finishing the basement and redoing the master bathroom. Plus all new carpeting, adding a lot to the backyard, etc...

[Solecismic]

If you're tempted to sell because of Zillowhysteria...

Our house is up about 30% in the three years we've owned it. Very tempting, especially since this house is too big for us.

There is one house in the neighborhood for sale. I've mentioned this before. Three price drops now - the last was more than 10%. It is 1000 square feet larger, more recently updated and probably move-in ready. It's now on the market just above our Zillow value and nearly $100k below its inflated Zillow value.

So, irrational expectations of sale price, with interest rates quickly rising.

Then, take a look at what's out there in your price range. There's low inventory. Everyone on the market who doesn't sell in three minutes is fishing, probably based on the hysteria.

Let's say you do sell in three minutes. Where are you going to go? The rental market is crazy-overpriced and you're probably going to end up having to purchase something you shouldn't be purchasing - at least at the price the sellers want.

The market is a mess right now, and it's going to take years to sort out.

[Lathum]

I’ve zero intention of selling my house anytime soon. Likely not until my kids are done with college.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If you're tempted to sell because of Zillowhysteria...

Our house is up about 30% in the three years we've owned it. Very tempting, especially since this house is too big for us.

There is one house in the neighborhood for sale. I've mentioned this before. Three price drops now - the last was more than 10%. It is 1000 square feet larger, more recently updated and probably move-in ready. It's now on the market just above our Zillow value and nearly $100k below its inflated Zillow value.

So, irrational expectations of sale price, with interest rates quickly rising.

Then, take a look at what's out there in your price range. There's low inventory. Everyone on the market who doesn't sell in three minutes is fishing, probably based on the hysteria.

Let's say you do sell in three minutes. Where are you going to go? The rental market is crazy-overpriced and you're probably going to end up having to purchase something you shouldn't be purchasing - at least at the price the sellers want.

The market is a mess right now, and it's going to take years to sort out.

We live in a 400+ home subdivision and there's not been many houses for sale last year. We noticed one recently priced around the Zillow price. Wife and I are going to monitor it to see what it sells at.

Daughter is sophomore and after she graduates and lives on her own, the house will be too big for us also. So hoping this mania continues until 2025.

Regarding where to go. Easy question for me. I would rent a 2-3 bedroom apartment and bide my time to buy next house in 2-3-4 years. Yeah, the apartment also has inflated rental but let's say about $2,500-$3,000. With normal stock market returns (8-10%), I'd still come out ahead by selling and investing the proceeds.

[flere-imsaho]

North (read: affluent) suburban Chicago here: houses still selling at or above Zillow prices, though the market has opened up a bit.

For the last two quarters there was almost nothing on the market, so anything that did come on the market got pounced on my local realtors and was sold pre-market.

Now we're actually seeing properties making it to MLS and having public showings again, but it's still pretty hot.

I agree with the sentiment that the higher interest rates will definitely slow this down.

[Ksyrup]

These are the days when I'm actually glad retirement is probably 10-15 years away.

[Kodos]

You haven't been enjoying the constant pummelings this year?

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

These are the days when I'm actually glad retirement is probably 10-15 years away.

Meanwhile my 3 year plan is getting hosed, I almost want to take a big loan, pay off my car and all other debt, knowing I will paying myself back at a better interest rate in an eventually healthier market.

[albionmoonlight]

According to Zillow, my home has gone up 4% in the last month. It is now ~ 3X what we paid for it.

Since we have no plans to sell for the next 8-10 years at a minimum, I've only been looking for the LOLs.

But it might just be that Zillow is just making up artificially high valuations for whatever reason it would have to do that.

[molson]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

According to Zillow, my home has gone up 4% in the last month. It is now ~ 3X what we paid for it.

Since we have no plans to sell for the next 8-10 years at a minimum, I've only been looking for the LOLs.

But it might just be that Zillow is just making up artificially high valuations for whatever reason it would have to do that.

You can track neighborhood listings and sales on Zillow too, see what houses like yours are actually going for.

From my experiences, Zillow is still undervaluing everything. But I'm a proud resident of the current #1 most unaffordable city in America at the moment (home costs v. household income).

[stevew]

My dad died last year and their house is all paid off. My brother has been living there since Covid started. My mom kind of wants to move because "a family needs a house this big" (4/2) but the property taxes are not that bad at all(mid 3k range). I'm kind of afraid if she were to buy and then move into something smaller, she'd end up paying a lot more on property taxes on the new place. If they re-assess upon buying, that's wiping out any sort of utility savings you'd have on the new place.

I kind of had the thought that maybe she could find someone else in their town who needs a bigger house and they could do a property swap but who knows what kind of issues the other house could have. Plus what's the point if they're going to jack the taxes up most likely.

[Flasch186]

Check out if there's portability of property tax savings in your state.

[JPhillips]

Elon's penis adventures not looking good for Tesla stock.

[Ksyrup]

I challenge any of you to identify my penis, whether it's from the confederate flag tattoo, green head, or 78 degree angle.

[RainMaker]

It's a weird house of cards. The stock wasn't high based on any performance of the company, it was high because of him. Many people bought into his lies and scams.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's a weird house of cards. The stock wasn't high based on any performance of the company, it was high because of him. Many people bought into his lies and scams.

Also--this is far from my area of expertise--but there are a LOT of automakers with a lot of really good EVs out and/or coming out in 2023/24.

The choice isn't between a Tesla or a gas car anymore. And that's a challenge they haven't faced before.

Economic history is littered with companies that were first movers into an area who then got pushed aside when established companies came into the space later.

[RainMaker]

Pretty long thread about him but the first tweet was always something I thought the media would latch on to. Their battery swap stations were not real and they were cashing huge checks from the government. Just fraud on a massive scale.

In 2015 I decided on a whim to check out Tesla's battery swap station that was earning the company 9 figures in California ZEV credits, and found it wasn't real. Instead Tesla was using diesel generators to charge cars. Here's how this changed my life ��

— E.W. Niedermeyer (@Tweetermeyer) May 20, 2022

[flere-imsaho]

So, he's less a modern-day Andrew Carnegie and more a modern-day Ivan Boesky.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The choice isn't between a Tesla or a gas car anymore. And that's a challenge they haven't faced before.

We bought a Volvo EV last year and have been very happy with it. The fit and finish especially (a Tesla weakness, I've heard) is very good.

The competition is there and I'm sure plenty of consumers will look at non-Tesla EVs, especially if they hear things like a requirement to sign an NDA to get a repair.

In fact in my area of the world at least, new EVs from Porsche & Jaguar have more interest than Teslas, which are starting to look a little old and worn from a design perspective.

[Ksyrup]

My next car will likely be a hybrid, but even for a full EV I really have no interest in a Tesla.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

So, he's less a modern-day Andrew Carnegie and more a modern-day Ivan Boesky.

Yeah, with a little Trump self-promotion built-in.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

My next car will likely be a hybrid, but even for a full EV I really have no interest in a Tesla.

I bought a hybrid 6 months ago rather than full EV, and am glad I did so. Full EV is at least 2-3 years away from being fully practical here - not enough charging stations outside big cities, and nowhere near enough fast charging points in general.

May well be different in the US, but the infrastructure is nowhere near what is needed here

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

We bought a Volvo EV last year and have been very happy with it. The fit and finish especially (a Tesla weakness, I've heard) is very good.

The competition is there and I'm sure plenty of consumers will look at non-Tesla EVs, especially if they hear things like a requirement to sign an NDA to get a repair.

In fact in my area of the world at least, new EVs from Porsche & Jaguar have more interest than Teslas, which are starting to look a little old and worn from a design perspective.

But when is the next NFL Week In Pictures coming?

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It's a weird house of cards. The stock wasn't high based on any performance of the company, it was high because of him. Many people bought into his lies and scams.

I don't think that's a fair comment to be honest. Tesla leading the FSD charge is a big reason for the valuation. I believe FSD will come eventually and if Tesla gets to the winning post x5 or x10 on the stock is on the table as it will be as ground breaking as the iPhone.

Tesla growth and profits have been phenomenal. Projects like the Tesla bot are likely a long way off and probably do not factor in yet. But whatever you think of Elon, the financials are a firm base.

People love or hate Elon. I see a modern day Einstein who is driving the human race forward. Sure he has rough edges, but his contribution towards humanity could well be incredible when it's all said and done. Full FSD and robotaxis or seeing a man on Mars would be a generational achievement. Even to this point what he has done is incredible.

The Tesla stock is a risk on asset. With a hawkish Fed I expect it to struggle. But once the market flips I would expect the stock to surge back in terms of its valuation. I was an early investor so perhaps am a little biased. I bought more at $635 yesterday. I suspect it goes lower, but in 2 or 3 years I would be shocked if that buy doesn't work out.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Hammer

I see a modern day Einstein who is driving the human race forward. Sure he has rough edges, but his contribution towards humanity could well be incredible when it's all said and done.

Could well be doing a lot of work in that sentence.

[flere-imsaho]

A modern day Alexander Graham Bell seems a bit more accurate, including the negative connotatons.

[Edward64]

New home sales has declined 16% and there is now a 9 months supply vs ideal 6 month supply. And yet Zillow tells me my home value is still increasing.

3 more years, just give me 3 more years of steady appreciation.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

A modern day Alexander Graham Bell seems a bit more accurate, including the negative connotatons.

I would say he's more of a Steve Jobs myself.

There's no denying that he's a great salesman but he's not really an engineer.

[BYU 14]

As my portfolio "surged" to negative 14.41% growth from January 1, finally took a large short term loan out after much research, calculating and hand wringing.

I will pay myself back in less than 2 years at 4.5% interest, I will be wiping out all my debt 100% except house payment, but I have no worries there with the equity we have. This gets a chunk of my money out, saves my money in my monthly budget, and lets me divert a chunk of what I took to a savings account, where it will at least gain something.

Ultimately doing this will cost my less than $1,000 on the overall value of my 401K at my target retirement age of 62 in 2025, and save me over 300 a month over the course of the payback period, which I can also sock into savings, so overall a net gain of over $4,000 deducting devaluation of my 401K, assuming we return to a normal market by years end.

So a slight win, that gives me a lot more flexibility in the roughly 3 years and change until I retire.