NFL 2016 Head Coaching and Offseason Stuff

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Logan

Plenty of coaches will be okay with getting fired after one year and collecting $14 million for the effort, like Tomsula.

This is kinda my point though, sure plenty of mediocre borderline NFL head coaches or long shots are going to love to collect $14 million for one season of effort, but you aren't going to get the really good candidates doing it this way, because they just aren't going to give you the time of day. It's not like in the NFL these days these one and done candidates are ever getting another shot.

And yeah, the 49ers are likely not going to get top candidates for a long time with the way things went down a year ago, and ditto for the Browns under Haslam. But maybe if you give Tomsula another year and recognize that he didn't do such a terrible job in a complete clusterfuck of a situation, maybe coaches see that and your reputation starts to head in the right direction again. I can't imagine they are going to get someone great who turns things right around anyway. I may be wrong.

[corbes]

I've lost touch with who the Philly beat writers are, but the suggestion they're making is that it's Doug Pederson's race to lose, with Adam Gase in second place.

[Atocep]

Hopefully Chicago gets at least another year from Gase.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

And yeah, the 49ers are likely not going to get top candidates for a long time with the way things went down a year ago, and ditto for the Browns under Haslam. But maybe if you give Tomsula another year and recognize that he didn't do such a terrible job in a complete clusterfuck of a situation, maybe coaches see that and your reputation starts to head in the right direction again. I can't imagine they are going to get someone great who turns things right around anyway. I may be wrong.

Yeah. One thing that I think was smart about the Falcons sticking with Mike Smith one year too long--it was a new(ish) owner sending a message that he will give coaches the benefit of the doubt and every chance to turn things around.

You really want to get a reputation of stability (Giants, Steelers) instead of constant rebuilding.

[stevew]

So the draft.

Tennessee at #1 has an exciting decision. They can stay at #1 and take Bosa or Tunsil(who unfortunately would be called "Turnstile" if he has a bad game). Or they can Hope that someone falls in love with Goff and trade out for mad bank.

The Cowboys(maybe), Niners, Dolphins(less likely) and Eagles all need a QB. Seems like a Jerry type move to trade to #1 if they want Goff. Maybe the best move would simply be for the Titans and Browns to work out a trade before a bidding war for #1 ensues? Titans and Browns swap first and second round picks and the Browns give up their 3rd perhaps?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by stevew

Maybe the best move would simply be for the Titans and Browns to work out a trade before a bidding war for #1 ensues?

Why wouldn't the Titans want a bidding war?

[stevew]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Why wouldn't the Titans want a bidding war?

Lemme clarify. I think they would want a war, but the Titans may love the OT or the DE so much that they don't want to drop past 3. Getting the first pick on day 2 would allow them a ton of trade flexibility. An extra 3rd gets them into the mid 20s if they want to trade up into the first.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Is there anyone good enough for any kind of bidding war to break out? Is Goff really considered that good a prospect?

[Logan]

I'd be really surprised if Goff or any of the QBs lead to anything near what we have seen in the past in terms of what teams are willing to trade to move up.

[Thomkal]

Dallas is going to trade for/sign "Johnny Football" after Cleveland releases him, so no need to trade up tp #1

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by stevew

Seems like a Jerry type move to trade to #1 if they want Goff.

Jerry trades down, very rarely does he trade up. He likes trying to find the diamond in the rough instead of spending money on a high pick. He's only drafted one QB in the first round (and only 4 total) during his 25 years in Dallas...Troy Aikman.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Dallas is going to trade for/sign "Johnny Football" after Cleveland releases him, so no need to trade up tp #1

You shut your filthy mouth!

[Kodos]

He really is a Jerry kind of player, isn't he? My jerk-magnet theory also suggests Maziel to Dallas or Baltimore.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

it was a new(ish) owner sending a message that he will give coaches the benefit of the doubt and every chance to turn things around.

Or the message that it's okay to suck.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I'm surprised that there's even any question that Manziel is going to be in Dallas next year.

[SteveMax58]

Detroit Lions to hire Bob Quinn as general manager - NFL.com

Interesting move. Don't know much about Quinn but I guess he can't be all bad right?

[Dutch]

Perhaps then they should never have hired Lovie in the first place if he had such a bad reputation at developing QB's. They knew they were going to go QB with their first pick with Winston. I'm not a Lovie defender by any means, I just think he wasn't given enough time to develop him is all.

I hear Lovie is going to be the OC in Arizona next year if their OC jumps ship for a HC position. Just give him time...

[Thomkal]

God help us

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Dallas is going to trade for/sign "Johnny Football" after Cleveland releases him, so no need to trade up tp #1

I fully support this!

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I hear Lovie is going to be the OC in Arizona next year if their OC jumps ship for a HC position. Just give him time...

DC?

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

DC?

Arizona

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Arizona

I think he was asking if that was a typo and meant DC or defensive coordinator, not OC.

[Suicane75]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I think he was asking if that was a typo and meant DC or defensive coordinator, not OC.

He wasssssssssssssssss?

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I think he was asking if that was a typo and meant DC or defensive coordinator, not OC.

I should've quoted my reference. It was all just meant for Thomkal who suggested Lovie should've gotten more time.

In theory, it sounds like the nice thing to do, but if Lovie's greatest accomplishment in 2 years is drafting Jameis Winston first overall and then watching Jameis be successful as a rookie, that's a bad sign. Since Lovie had very little, if anything to do with it.

So...if we are going to give accolades to Lovie for the offense as a reason he should've stayed (and with back to back bottom of the barrel defenses which he was the "mastermind" of) then it would only make sense to challenge the logic Thomkal was putting out there by offering him up for AZ's potential OC vacancy.

C'mon people, keep up! Work with me here!

[Abe Sargent]

Tampa also had a running back reutn to his old form as well. Does Lovie get credit for getting Doug Martin back to his 1st year of form? He improved on his best-ever season of 4.6 ypc as a rookie to 4.9, carried the ball a bit less and still finished with 1400+ yards. He also got All Pro nod. Does Lovie not get some credit for that?

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I should've quoted my reference. It was all just meant for Thomkal who suggested Lovie should've gotten more time.

In theory, it sounds like the nice thing to do, but if Lovie's greatest accomplishment in 2 years is drafting Jameis Winston first overall and then watching Jameis be successful as a rookie, that's a bad sign. Since Lovie had very little, if anything to do with it.

So...if we are going to give accolades to Lovie for the offense as a reason he should've stayed (and with back to back bottom of the barrel defenses which he was the "mastermind" of) then it would only make sense to challenge the logic Thomkal was putting out there by offering him up for AZ's potential OC vacancy.

C'mon people, keep up! Work with me here!

Don't challenge my "logic"!

[EagleFan]

I don't get all the hype over Gase. With all of Peyton's audibling it's not exactly a major feather in his cap being the OC that time frame. I would not consider the Bears' offense impressive. I don't get it.

[sabotai]

Miami Dolphins hire Adam Gase as new head coach - NFL.com

Gase to the Dolphins.

[NobodyHere]

Coughlin is talking to the Eagles?

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I don't get all the hype over Gase. With all of Peyton's audibling it's not exactly a major feather in his cap being the OC that time frame. I would not consider the Bears' offense impressive. I don't get it.

The bears had a top 10 offense this year with a group of receivers no one could name and Cutler had his best season as a bear.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The bears had a top 10 offense this year with a group of receivers no one could name and Cutler had his best season as a bear.

What stats are you looking at?

The Bears were 23rd in points per game and 21st in yards per game.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

What stats are you looking at?

The Bears were 23rd in points per game and 21st in yards per game.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

10th in DVOA and 9th in weighted offense.

[EagleFan]

I put a lot more faith in the points and yardage stat. I've watched their games. There is nothing top ten about that offense.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I put a lot more faith in the points and yardage stat. I've watched their games. There is nothing top ten about that offense.

Points and yardage don't tell the whole story for any team at any level. I watched every Bears game this year and after Cutler came back from injury the offense was very good despite a revolving door at receiver and Forte missing time. The 9-12 range is about where I would have expected them to be based on how they played after the Seattle game.

Gase's offense isn't what's going to determine whether or not he's a successful head coach or not anyway. It's going to be his organizational skills, ability to handle players, and how he handles a game. Coordinators are judged far too heavily on how well they coach a particular side of the ball when their impact in that area becomes more limited as a head coach.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Points and yardage don't tell the whole story for any team at any level. I watched every Bears game this year and after Cutler came back from injury the offense was very good despite a revolving door at receiver and Forte missing time. The 9-12 range is about where I would have expected them to be based on how they played after the Seattle game.

Gase's offense isn't what's going to determine whether or not he's a successful head coach or not anyway. It's going to be his organizational skills, ability to handle players, and how he handles a game. Coordinators are judged far too heavily on how well they coach a particular side of the ball when their impact in that area becomes more limited as a head coach.

I have no clue if he will be a good coach; I am just saying that I don't see what suddenly made him the "it" person this year.

We saw how well that worked out for Chip Kelly.

[cuervo72]

Czaban was commenting on that the other day - the fact that there always has to be that "it" coordinator. And that he had no idea why Gase was picked for it, unless there just isn't anybody else.

[EagleFan]

As for the Bears offense:

Yards per game: 21st
Yards per play: 21st
1st Downs per game: 21st
3rd down percentage: 6th
Time of Possession: 8th
Points per game: 23rd
Completion %: 13th
Yards per pass attempt: 13th
Passer Rating: 16th
Yards per Carry: 16th
Sacks Allowed: 12th

What of that makes the offense a "top 10" offense in the league? Middle of the road at best.

[Abe Sargent]

Best News Ever!

The Jags are heading back to teh Senior Bowl for the thrid year in a row! So awesome.


Here re the Senior Bowl players we drafted in 2014 as one example of how awesome we learned these folks:


3rd - OG Brandon Linder - Often the lone good O LIne on our team
4th - CB AAron Colvin - great nickel, forced into a starter this yer and wasn't hot at it, but we'll likely slide him back to nickel to where he flourishes
5th - LB Telvin Smith - Amazing value pick, we robbed the league with this pick
6th - DE Chris Smith - Didn't really do a lot

2015 - CB NIck Marshall was a UFA we grabbed and he looks pretty saucy


Love to see a 2014-eque sweep of the great players from the Senior Bowl.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As for the Bears offense:

Yards per game: 21st
Yards per play: 21st
1st Downs per game: 21st
3rd down percentage: 6th
Time of Possession: 8th
Points per game: 23rd
Completion %: 13th
Yards per pass attempt: 13th
Passer Rating: 16th
Yards per Carry: 16th
Sacks Allowed: 12th

What of that makes the offense a "top 10" offense in the league? Middle of the road at best.

You can choose to go by raw numbers or per play, per drive, adjusted for opponent metrics.

[cuervo72]

Probably reading too much into it, but that was an interesting exchange between Gruden and Tirico. Gruden throws out a stat, Tirico replies with "Seven years ago when you started here you didn't care at all about stats, now here you are with a stack of them." Gruden answers with a "I'm going to miss you man" and a big handshake. I know it's the last ESPN game for a while and Gruden may just miss Tirico over the offseason, but that almost read like Gruden was going back to coaching.

[Simbo Klice]

Maybe Gruden is working behind the scenes to get Tirico fired?

[cuervo72]

Hah.

[Jon]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Probably reading too much into it, but that was an interesting exchange between Gruden and Tirico. Gruden throws out a stat, Tirico replies with "Seven years ago when you started here you didn't care at all about stats, now here you are with a stack of them." Gruden answers with a "I'm going to miss you man" and a big handshake. I know it's the last ESPN game for a while and Gruden may just miss Tirico over the offseason, but that almost read like Gruden was going back to coaching.

I heard on sports radio that Gruden reached out to the Eagles.

[miked]

I get advanced statistics tell some sort of story, but if you can't judge an offense by points and yardage, what else really matters?

Unless your kicker is 0-50 on FG, pts and yds are pretty important!

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Jon

I heard on sports radio that Gruden reached out to the Eagles.

Oh well if you heard it on sports radio.



(I wouldn't dismiss that possibility though, he was there for 3 years as OC early in Lurie's ownership. Would he want to go into the same division as his brother?)

[Abe Sargent]

I like the Tampa situation the best of those open. But obv that makes no sense for Gruden since he was there before.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by miked

I get advanced statistics tell some sort of story, but if you can't judge an offense by points and yardage, what else really matters?

Unless your kicker is 0-50 on FG, pts and yds are pretty important!

Advanced Statistics just try to take as many variables out of it as possible. If you play the Seahawks and gain 350 yards it is VERY impressive. If you do that against the Saints it is just a normal game against the Saints. Advanced football stats are far from perfect though.

[stevew]

who's coaching the Bengals next year? Hue?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by stevew

who's coaching the Bengals next year? Hue?

Lovie

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Lovie

Ouch.

[cuervo72]

Not Chip, that's for sure.