WW XCII Hades -- Claimed by Villagers

[Chief Rum]

So Poli was the nightkill then?

USFL, do you recall what Pass said about a roled wolf being nightkilled? I believe he said that a roled wolf would come up as a vanilla villager if wolf-killed.

If I am remembering that correctly, then Poli is cleared for sure, not because of the villager reference (wolves getting night killed are "revealed" as villagers, so that proves nothing), but because of the Hoplite reference (nightkilled wolves would only be revealed as vanilla villagers).

As for EF, Poli, he did almost the exact same thing to Abe in Athens before getting lynched, and I think Abe is a villager, too. So don't feel too bad about EF.

BTW, EF seemed really disconnected in this one. He suggested five wolves on Sunday, and I explained to him how it was extremely unlikely that Pass would have 5 wolves and the EHist in the game (Pass confirmed all roles are in the game, BTW), as that would be 6 of 19 players as bad guys. He agreed with me at the time, and said he just didn't look close enough. Then I read him in here saying he thinks there are five wolves again. Weird.

[jeheinz72]

IIRC any night-killed wolf shows as villager to the remaining players in that city. It was

any wolf -> vanilla
vanilla -> vanilla
roled villager -> roled villager

Hence I'm 100% on Poli's innocence.

[Schmidty]

Just got home. I'm baffled as to why CR thinks I'm a wolf.

I'll say it right now, I don't have a role other than vanilla villager, so I guess if you guys kill me, you don't lose much. Do what you want, I guess.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Just got home. I'm baffled as to why CR thinks I'm a wolf.

I'll say it right now, I don't have a role other than vanilla villager, so I guess if you guys kill me, you don't lose much. Do what you want, I guess.

I don't have any overt signs, Schmidty. Just follow my logic. You're free to disagree with it, of course; it's just a theory.

Basically, the wolves passed over both Ephor candidates (one of whom is a longtime strong vet player in Lathum), and possible big rep vets like hoops and myself (and Abe, too, although I would argue he was getting heat, so why night kill him) to go after you. Now you're also a strong vet player, but everyone knew you were going to be in and out because of the new job. On top of that, because of your family responsibilities and West Coast address, you tend to be a less consistent presence in most WW games than other vet players. And you're stubborn like me or Lathum, so you draw votes naturally when you're not UTR.

Basically, the wolves made an extremely curious decision in night-killing you over several other more obvious candidates. Why? You're also saying you're a vanilla villager, so it couldn't have been they thought you had a role.

And I theorized that in the Athens thread before coming here and getting new info. That info is that the other nightkill yesterday was Poli, and he is a confirmed villager. If we accept you as a villager, we are accepting that the wolves chose to put four villagers in Hades, which is one heck of a lockdown on this city to start. They didn't know PB was the good MR and would flee to Athens.

It seems far more likely the wolves chose to send one of their own down the first day, which would explain why you were the nightkill candidate over more obvious candidates.

Perhaps you're innocent, and a vanilla villager. But it requires some decent-sized leaps of faith to accept that on face value, and some holes in the wolves' logic, if so. I am certainly not married to this. I don't have anything concrete against you, nor do I get a good or bad vibe from you, wolf-wise. But this what the theory says.

If you have some counterpoints to this that make it unliekly, or an alternate theory to explain why the wolves made the night kill choices, I am all ears.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I don't have any overt signs, Schmidty. Just follow my logic. You're free to disagree with it, of course; it's just a theory.

Basically, the wolves passed over both Ephor candidates (one of whom is a longtime strong vet player in Lathum), and possible big rep vets like hoops and myself (and Abe, too, although I would argue he was getting heat, so why night kill him) to go after you. Now you're also a strong vet player, but everyone knew you were going to be in and out because of the new job. On top of that, because of your family responsibilities and West Coast address, you tend to be a less consistent presence in most WW games than other vet players. And you're stubborn like me or Lathum, so you draw votes naturally when you're not UTR.

Basically, the wolves made an extremely curious decision in night-killing you over several other more obvious candidates. Why? You're also saying you're a vanilla villager, so it couldn't have been they thought you had a role.

And I theorized that in the Athens thread before coming here and getting new info. That info is that the other nightkill yesterday was Poli, and he is a confirmed villager. If we accept you as a villager, we are accepting that the wolves chose to put four villagers in Hades, which is one heck of a lockdown on this city to start. They didn't know PB was the good MR and would flee to Athens.

It seems far more likely the wolves chose to send one of their own down the first day, which would explain why you were the nightkill candidate over more obvious candidates.

Perhaps you're innocent, and a vanilla villager. But it requires some decent-sized leaps of faith to accept that on face value, and some holes in the wolves' logic, if so. I am certainly not married to this. I don't have anything concrete against you, nor do I get a good or bad vibe from you, wolf-wise. But this what the theory says.

If you have some counterpoints to this that make it unliekly, or an alternate theory to explain why the wolves made the night kill choices, I am all ears.

Vote for me then.

[EagleFan]

go villagers...

[Poli]

:waves

[EagleFan]

Hi Poli

[Poli]

I don't know who I'm voting for at this point, but I do know it won't be Schmidty, as he did take me off the block today.

I'm guessing it'll be saldana or usfl, I'm not sure I've heard anything out of either.

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by USFLTecmo

The only person I don't have reason to believe is good is saldana. Poli's apparently the good Hoplite, Heinz wouldn't have told us so if he was a baddie, he'd have just offed him at the first opportunity, Chief was a nightkill, Schmidty was a nightkill, and I know I'm a villager, which doesn't really make anyone believe it besides me.

Either Chief or schmidty could have been a wolf sacrificed down to hades, but I doubt Schmidty is at this point, as there was no nightkill here. Ouch. This doesn't look good for us. Either that, or I'm way too trusting.

Poli, you're thinking what I'm thinking. I'm making mine official now.

VOTE SCHMIDTY

[USFLTecmo]

Heh, wrong S player.

UNVOTE SCHMIDTY
VOTE SALDANA

[saldana]

i would more or less agree with Heinze's summation of sparta

the only person i am ruling out for today is Poli, who, as Heinze said, came up as the good hoplite when he was night killed.

we lynched purduebrad on day one because he admitted that he was the marathon runner. that actually gave us a 50/50 shot of hitting a wolf. as soon as the athens runner shows up, he will get lynched for the same reason. that all said, PB was leading the vote when he made his reveal

i am not sure if i got lynched or not. at one point, there was a 3 way race between myself, The Jackal, and Clap, with my own vote on the Jackal. in an effort to prove myself a villager, i moved my vote to Barkeep who was a throwaway and actually cleared the way for my own lynch and made it harder for a tie, which would have been a catastrophe for the village.

whether or not there were some kind of Danny heroics i dont know. I left the thread at 3pm and didnt go back. If heinze is telling the truth about having gone back to see that, he would also know that i was never there. so he could easily be a wolf that killed himself and is passing it off as being the duke victim

as far as who i distrust in Sparta, dubb was his old self, slinging mud everywhere and raising a ruckus...part of me wants to believe that he wouldnt draw so much attention to himself if he were a wolf, but he also refused to give me any credit for sacrificing myself for the good of the village.

i was pretty solid in my own mind on the idea that the wolves would kill one of their own on night one in order to start killing in hades, which could have been thrown into confusion in sparta when PB (who is still a 50% chance of being a wolf). since we know Poli is good, that leaves schmidty for me.

one thing i havent seen anyone throw out as a potential problem we as villagers may have...the wolves may be able to talk to each other regardless of the city they are in...it wouldnt really make sense that if there are 2 wolves in each of the starting cities that they cant all talk to each other... i would think they would need to be able to coordinate their efforts in terms of intentionally sending someone to Hades, and they would, at the very least, be able to know all of the other wolves as soon as one from each city arrived here if they couldnt talk before across the cities.

the more i think about it, the worse i feel about schmidty

[saldana]

holy crap...that might be my longest post ever.

[Poli]

Hmm. Welcome to the party saldana.

I think I need to get my vote in now, though I have a pretty good chance of being online tomorrow during the day. Hooray for work sites with the internets.

With lack of, well, anything other than his vote for saldana...though this could easily change. I'd really like to revenge vote Chief Rum, but I won't do that. I was a wolf, after all, in that game.

VOTE USFL

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Vote for me then.

Actually, no, I found a really good reason to change my mind.

Poli was known in Sparta to be the good Hoplite, and I know from Pass that at least one wolf was in Sparta today (probably two). And wolves can PM across city lines, and Poli can't protect himself.

i.e. No way Schmidty, as a wolf, lets, essentially, the bodyguard live, even if it gives himself up as a wolf.

My logic was sound, but I think this new way of looking at it makes it pretty clear Schmidty's a good guy. Sorry, Schmidty. I am officially confused by the wolves' actions then. Schmidty, is there anything you might have said in Athens that would have made them think you had a role?

As for saldana, I saw jeheinze bring him up before. Can someone tell my why sal is suspicious?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Poli

Hmm. Welcome to the party saldana.

I think I need to get my vote in now, though I have a pretty good chance of being online tomorrow during the day. Hooray for work sites with the internets.

With lack of, well, anything other than his vote for saldana...though this could easily change. I'd really like to revenge vote Chief Rum, but I won't do that. I was a wolf, after all, in that game.

VOTE USFL

Heh.

If we have a day to wait and another candidate to consider, we might want to wait a day on USFL. As the lynch candidate in Athens, his allegiance will be known there, and we will probably get a new arrival tomorrow who can tell us what that result was.

Otherwise, though, I don't have an issue voting USFL. He was on my "no read" list in the Athens thread, because I just flat didn't have enough information or prior knowledge on him.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by saldana

i was pretty solid in my own mind on the idea that the wolves would kill one of their own on night one in order to start killing in hades, which could have been thrown into confusion in sparta when PB (who is still a 50% chance of being a wolf). since we know Poli is good, that leaves schmidty for me.

one thing i havent seen anyone throw out as a potential problem we as villagers may have...the wolves may be able to talk to each other regardless of the city they are in...it wouldnt really make sense that if there are 2 wolves in each of the starting cities that they cant all talk to each other... i would think they would need to be able to coordinate their efforts in terms of intentionally sending someone to Hades, and they would, at the very least, be able to know all of the other wolves as soon as one from each city arrived here if they couldnt talk before across the cities.

the more i think about it, the worse i feel about schmidty

They can talk across city lines. I confirmed that on Day One with Pass (I asked him a ton of questions about the ruleset, USFL can confirm). I laid out above how, it turns out, Schmidty has to be good. Otherwise, I am of a mind with you. I have no idea why the wolves would not send one of their own on Day One. Perhaps they thought it would be too obvious? In that case, I would have to assume at least one of the two night kills on Day Two is a wolf. I, however, am not a wolf, so, to me, that makes the question of just who was the night kill from Sparta today of even more importance.

I am leaning toward whichever is the night kill from Sparta (yourself, sal, or jeheinze, if we can figure it out), or probably USFL as a default. Of course, for the same reason that USFL could be a wolf, so could the Sparta day lynch today, so the other one of sal/jeheinze isn't really cleared either. That said, I don't think both sal and jeheinze are wolves because I think Sparta has no more than two wolves (I think it started with two wolves each city), and both of them getting killed today would give Sparta to the village.

[Chief Rum]

Oh, BTW, something serious to consider.

Abe has come out as the Athens Phoenix, and as of 20 minutes prior to deadline, no one countered his reveal. I also think he's a villager. Now, the other Phoenix in Sparta does not have to be a bad guy (the role isn't set up that way), but he certainly could be. Pass as much as said he would have re-roled if both Phoenix ended up wolves, so if Abe is a villager, it's certainly still possible for the Sparta Phoenix to be a wolf. We also know the wolf MR is still in Athens.

Let's say the hypothetical evil Sparta Phoenix (if a wolf) is killed by the wolves there, we wouldn't get a role and that person would come up villager. If the village wins Sparta with two players, it is not inconceivable for the wolves to regain control of Sparta with a well-timed lynching of the Sparta Phoenix here in Hades, and the MR in Athens, perhaps with the help of a wolf Ephor (we're not certain if we have a wolf Ephor or not).

Food for thought, anyway, although certainly neither here nor now at the moment.

[saldana]

ok chief, i will buy your line of reasoning on schmidty, and since i wanted to anyway, since he helped lynch me the first time

vote jeheinze

[jeheinz72]

Can't argue with that one Sal.

[Passacaglia]

Morning vote count:

Schmidty -- 1 Passacaglia (77)
saldana -- 1 USFLTecmo (111)
USFLTecmo -- 1 Poli (114)
jeheinz72 -- 1 saldana (119)

[jeheinz72]

As far as why Saldana was on the hit list in Sparta to begin with, well, that was the problem with Sparta. When PB revealed on Day One it pretty much nullified all discussion that day (I didn't vote for him in an effort to keep discussion alive).

So Day Two came around and it was basically Day One version 2.0. The only person who had really acted strangely was Dubb, but I felt (and I think most people agreed) that he was just acting TOO insanely to be a wolf. I had thought he was just slingin' mud to see what stuck. Basically everyone else I was more or less "Meh" on. I initially had some trust in Danny, voting for him for Ephor which he won and so I didn't consider him on Day Two. I wish I would have as I'm fairly sure that he then duked it to me.

My most likely theory is that Danny and Sal are wolves. Rather than let Sal get lynched as a wolf (and revealed as such) they decided it was more beneficial for Danny to use the Duke that people knew he had on me and then send Sal to Hades to let him kill here rather than set up wolf vs. wolf for today in Sparta.

I think that theory makes sense, but really only is concrete if one of the following is true

A) There were 3 starting wolves in Sparta
B) The wolves felt that they were looking great in Athens
C) The wolves felt that Sparta was going to be very hard to win with Sal lynched as a wolf

[jeheinz72]

To continue...(my browser has been crashing so I'm breaking this up)

My thoughts on each

A) I'd figure this somewhat unlikely. Not impossible given some dynamics in this game, but not an overwhelming likelihood that we started with something other than 2. Neither vote seemed all that well coordinated frankly

B) I don't know much on this one, but if I'm reading CR correctly the ousters from Athens have been EF (villager), Schmidty (somewhat likely villager), CR and USFL. CR I'm reading villager on. USFL I don't know much about. He seems villager here, but could also be a wolf or a wolf-sympathizer

C) If it was just Danny and Sal to start then this is possible. If Sal gets lynched it would've left Danny in a 5-1 hole and even with the Ephor ability that's a tough road to hoe.

[saldana]

of course you realize the flaw in your theories....?

i am not a wolf. and you are. the thing that torqued me the most yesterday was that you refused, and are still refusing to acknowledge that I basically sacrificed myself...i could have made a tie with myself and clap that would have likely sent two villagers to Hades in the same day. Instead, i threw my vote away...if i were a wolf about to die, why in Gods' names would i not have taken a villager with me for free.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by saldana

of course you realize the flaw in your theories....?

i am not a wolf. and you are. the thing that torqued me the most yesterday was that you refused, and are still refusing to acknowledge that I basically sacrificed myself...i could have made a tie with myself and clap that would have likely sent two villagers to Hades in the same day. Instead, i threw my vote away...if i were a wolf about to die, why in Gods' names would i not have taken a villager with me for free.

?? Let me re-dig my post but actually yesterday I gave you a ton of credit for this.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Sparta as I left it, was a touch of a clusterfuck really.

Day One:

PB revealed as the Runner pretty early. Dubb was basically haywire all day and managed to accuse just about everyone at some point. Then just decided that PB *had to* be the bad runner. I thought him insane that he could be so sure, but in the end, the idea that PB was at least 50/50 bad prevailed and he was lynched. I don't believe we got word on if PB ended up being good or bad. If we did then I forget, so it was probably that he was good (since I'd have surely remembered had we been told he was a wolf).

Night one was the Poli killing and we were told he was a villager hoplite

Day Two: It became clear Danny was our Ephor. Our candidates were he, clap and someone else and Clap said he didn't get it. I know I had voted for Danny so it made sense to me he got it.

Our Day Two vote was basically a sit around and wait. No real votes most of the day and it was a tie at or near two votes between candidates of Sal, Clap and Jackal. Dubb picked up a one off vote. BK never did vote. In the end sal had the most votes at 3, but Danny said to "expect fireworks" and then I left to get some work done.

Next thing I know I'm in Hades. So either Danny ephor'd it to me and they then strangely night-killed sal anyhow or Danny bluffed and Sal was lynched and I was night killed. I don't know for sure either way. My hunch is that Danny is a wolf based upon either action of that result. I was a voter on sal but not with a whole lotta force to be honest. He was at the top of a meager list of candidates really and the most suspicious thing he did in my mind was seemingly continue to pair votes with clap. But Sal also stepped up big time and basically kept sacrificing himself to avoid a tie-vote scenario multiple times. I agreed with his plan and would've moved my vote, but in doing so my only real options would have then created some form of tie or lined my vote up with him and clap which I wasn't so hot on.

From my recap yesterday.

I don't know what you are, but I'm definitely giving you credit for doing that and it's part of the reason I didn't just drop a vote for you right after my recent analyzation of events from the two posts above.

[jeheinz72]

CR - Why did USFL get lynched?

[USFLTecmo]

He left a bit before the lynch, and I happened to:

1. Have a vote on me from earlier,
2. Not be a revealer (Abe),
3. Not be hoopsguy,
4. Lose out when the rookie (who I recruited, oddly enough) decided between me and hoopsguy with a minute left, and then someone else piled on right at the deadline. If I had more time to look before knowing I was toast, I may have been able to pick up some wolfish activity, but I'll leave that to the vets in Athens at this point.

[jeheinz72]

Well, right now I know only one person is for sure with me. If I'm reading the recap right, I'd bet USFL did *something* fishy and it either a wolf or played nice enough with the wolves as the Evil Historian

Vote USFLTecmo

[Schmidty]

Well, I guess I need to decide. In a way, I want to vote for Poli because I don't like how he played me the last lynch, but I'm going to go on gut:

Vote USFLTecmo

[USFLTecmo]

Self preservation is never fun, but it's necessary sometimes.

UNVOTE SALDANA
VOTE SCHMIDTY

[saldana]

my thing about heinze is...he admitted what i did was definitively pro-villager, but is still coming after me...so did he forget his own statements of fact, or is he choosing to ignore them

[saldana]

fyi all...i am likely out until after the deadline.

go village

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by saldana

my thing about heinze is...he admitted what i did was definitively pro-villager, but is still coming after me...so did he forget his own statements of fact, or is he choosing to ignore them

Huh? Dude I'm not coming out against you. If I were, I'd have my vote on you.

I surmised a theory that was based upon a lot of presumations about what has or is happening in the game. Ultimately, I decided you aren't the best candidate and have my vote elsewhere.

[Chief Rum]

Ideally, we could wait a day to get more arrivals who might know more about all four of us from yesterday's lynch. But we don't have that luxury.

I still think it's likely that at least one wolf was sent down yesterday, so it would be the nightkill of saldana or jeheinze (since it's not me), but I can't decide between the two right now. Not enough information.

So I think I am going to USFL, too, but it isn't a comfortable vote. Fact is, we're not even sure we have a wolf here at all. But we have to vote, I believe, so that's that.

VOTE USFLTECMO

[jeheinz72]

We do have to vote. Well I take that back, we could all not vote and all get a -1 penalty for our trouble. That would be horrific

[USFLTecmo]

I'm dead soon (today, maybe tomorrow) anyway, so I might as well put this out there.

The fact there was a quick switch to me late didn't give me any time to reveal that I'm a historian until it was too late. I gave the village everything I knew (which was one scan, Lathum, who's a villager) right at the deadline, once it was clear I was a goner. I also scanned Chief Rum, he's a villager as well.

So, you have a 50/50 shot. Am I the good historian or the evil historian? I probably won't be protected tonight, so if there is a wolf around in the next hour, I'm a goner, but if there isn't, Poli may be able to protect me tomorrow night, if he isn't offed himself. If I'm evil, then you'll all vote me off tomorrow, no big deal, and you'll know for sure when you kill me you're doing the right thing.

[jeheinz72]

So wait, you're the Seer who is going to manage to get lynched twice? I find that highly unlikely.

My bet is you're actually the Evil Historian and playing nice with wolves got you heat and got you lynched the first time. This time you were kind of the odd man out and frankly I'd think any move to save you is a wolf who is wisely surmising you're valuable to him to keep around.

[jeheinz72]

Pass, if you see this, can I get a vote count? I have 4-2-1

[USFLTecmo]

Abe's late reveal had everyone looking for a home, and since I kept quiet about my ability, PB was getting a free pass for being the MR, and no one wanted to touch our two Ephor vote candidates, it left very little left for them to choose from. Feel free to believe your gut, it's just going to cost you a historian.

[jeheinz72]

I don't doubt it's costing me a Historian. I just don't think it's actually costing me the villager beneficial one

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, this is troublesome. I don't like to lynch seers.

But jeheinze is right, this is at least a little suspicious. I will say it came on you quick yesterday, since with 20 mins to go, you had maybe one or two votes on you. But if they were there to vote for you, they were there for you to reveal to them. It worked for Abe, why not you? Why didn't you reveal?

I actually want to vote for sal or jeheinze, whichever was nightkilled yesterday. If I could tell which was which, I would switch to that person, because I think the one NK'd yesterday in Sparta is a wolf (guessing a wolf move). Unfortunately, there is a lot of confusion about what happened in Sparta at the deadline yesterday, so I have to hold off from that. Which leaves you.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Well, I guess I need to decide. In a way, I want to vote for Poli because I don't like how he played me the last lynch, but I'm going to go on gut:

Vote USFLTecmo

?

I didn't play you, my brother from another mother. I actually appreciate you not voting me out, Survivor style. I can promise you this: You won't receive a vote from me in this game.

[Poli]

Of course, I'm likely nightkilled in about 7 minutes.

[Poli]

That reminds me, I need to send in my protect.

[jeheinz72]

Do we have any idea of a vote count?

[Poli]

I'm going to try and stay on for the results, but I can't make promises. I'm kind of at the whim of my boss right now.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:

Schmidty -- 2 Passacaglia (77) Schmidty (131)
saldana -- 0
USFLTecmo -- 4 Poli (114) jeheinz72 (129) Schmidty (130) Chief Rum (135)
jeheinz72 -- 1 saldana (119)

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, this is troublesome. I don't like to lynch seers.

But jeheinze is right, this is at least a little suspicious. I will say it came on you quick yesterday, since with 20 mins to go, you had maybe one or two votes on you. But if they were there to vote for you, they were there for you to reveal to them. It worked for Abe, why not you? Why didn't you reveal?

I actually want to vote for sal or jeheinze, whichever was nightkilled yesterday. If I could tell which was which, I would switch to that person, because I think the one NK'd yesterday in Sparta is a wolf (guessing a wolf move). Unfortunately, there is a lot of confusion about what happened in Sparta at the deadline yesterday, so I have to hold off from that. Which leaves you.

C'est la vie. In my defense, though, not that it matters, I didn't even become a legit candidate before 10 minutes to the deadline, didn't have a tying vote on me until a couple of minutes to deadline, and we still had TheNorm floating out there. I took the 50/50 chance I'd live and not be outed at that point. It failed, especially when someone else piled on after him.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Poli

Of course, I'm likely nightkilled in about 7 minutes.

I dunno man. If the wolves are mainly concerned about Athens and Sparta, they may have not sent a wolf here yet. If USFL as the Evil Historian is it, I can't imagine he gets a kill even if he does survive this lynch