Werewolf CXIII: 2010 NFL Draft (WOLVES WIN! #1 Pick: Crimson Fox)

[PurdueBrad]

There is breaking news coming in from Atlanta right now. Chris Mortensen is our man on the scene. Chris, what are you hearing?

Chris M- It looks like there as been an early trade in the NFL Draft. The St. Louis Rams have apparently dealt their #1 overall pick to the Atlanta Falcons. This is tremendous news in terms of how this will shape the draft. The Rams will get the Falcons' 19'th overall pick as well as wide receiver Michael Jenkins. In exchange, the Rams are sending the #1 overall pick in the draft as well as a fourth rounder to the Falcons.


The big question here is who are the Falcons trying so hard to trade up for? We know they want a defensive back, linebacker or kicker. Or is this more a matter of the Rams souring on what they saw in the draft? They are still reportedly interested in a quarterback or defensive tackle, but do they even need a receiver anymore?


I expect more draft fireworks as the weeks continue...

[Autumn]

I'm a bit torn on how to analyze results myself. I had guessed that the wolves might try to not put too much effort in, in order to not make themselves stick out. on the other hand,it's possible they get some sort of benefit from winning events, though that's certainly not spelled out.

I did indeed mail it in, or at least that's how it turned out. I didn't put a lot of effort in, though I didn't expect to do this bad. That gives me a sense of how much other people are putting into the events. I guess it's possible that some one's "skill" made me do worse, but I don't suspect that at the moment.

[Autumn]

#1-CrimsonFox -1
#2- ntndeacon -5
#3- Chief Rum -5
#4- KWhit -6
#5- JEHeinz 1
#6- Autumn -8
#7- Schmidty -6
#8- Darth Vilus -4
#9- J23 -2
#10- The Jackal 4
#11- Henry 5
#12- Abe Sargent 11
#13- Danny 7
#14- Hoops 5

So this is the original board, and how much people moved after the senior bowl. I wanted to figure that out to see if there was anything noteworthy. It actually looks pretty standard to me. The biggest movers were the bottom 5 who all obviously put in the effort to move up in the rankings, Abe most of all. Everyone else above them suffered to some extent, the middle of the pack dropping the most, CF and Heinz putting in the effort to tread water.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Autumn

#1-CrimsonFox -1
#2- ntndeacon -5
#3- Chief Rum -5
#4- KWhit -6
#5- JEHeinz 1
#6- Autumn -8
#7- Schmidty -6
#8- Darth Vilus -4
#9- J23 -2
#10- The Jackal 4
#11- Henry 5
#12- Abe Sargent 11
#13- Danny 7
#14- Hoops 5

So this is the original board, and how much people moved after the senior bowl. I wanted to figure that out to see if there was anything noteworthy. It actually looks pretty standard to me. The biggest movers were the bottom 5 who all obviously put in the effort to move up in the rankings, Abe most of all. Everyone else above them suffered to some extent, the middle of the pack dropping the most, CF and Heinz putting in the effort to tread water.

The scout's observations aren't indicative yet of where people have moved on Mel Kiper's Big Board, more how people are currently trending/performing. You'll get a new Big Board tonight.

[henry296]

Autumn,

I think the list that PB posted after the Senior Bowl is an indication of how many points used, not the new overall rankings. I think we get those tonight.

[Autumn]

All right, I see. Well, for what I was using it for that's even better. I was just looking for an oddities in the efforts.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Autumn

...CF and Heinz putting in the effort to tread water.

That was indeed my plan. Just enough points to not drop far and to get a gauge for how this'll go.

[Autumn]

Well, I was hoping to find something suspicious to guide my vote. No such luck. For now I'm going to get a vote out there and get back to some good old fashioned Werewolf. I'm going to vote for my fellow safety, Jackal. Thinning the competition is a good enough day one reason.

Vote jackal

[jeheinz72]

2 reasons for this vote

1. Plays my position

2. Apparently didn't do squat at the Senior Bowl, dropping 5 points. Far as I can surmise I can't see why wolves would care about draft positioning.

vote ntndeacon

[Darth Vilus]

Vote CrimsonFox

No wide receiver will beat me!

[Danny]

Vote Abe

He's not even a real football player.

(vote is just cause he's a kicker, I will be changing later when votes get more serious)

[Abe Sargent]

Come on now, the Kicker thing is hilarious! You have to keep me in just for that reason alone!

[Abe Sargent]

There are six teams that want a DT, and just two that want me. This is going to be funny!

(I hope )

[The Jackal]

Safety competition sounds good to me. Voting me because I showed you up out there today!

VOTE AUTUMN

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

One scout's take on player performance:

1- Abe
2- Crimson Fox
3- Jackal
4- Heinz
5- Danny
6- Henry
7- ntndeacon
8- Chief Rum
9- Hoopsguy
10- KWhit
11- J23
12- Darth Vilus
13- Schmidty
14- Autumn

I would like one person above me and one person below me - excluding chief Rum and KWhit - to state how many points they spent on this activity. I'll reveal my points spent near the end of the day.

Basically, I want to test the idea that this list reflects spending points and the amount of faith I put in the statements of people about how much/little they spent initially.

[Danny]

I spent 6 points

[Danny]

Im guessing that mid level all spent 5 points and I was just ahead due to the 6th point I put.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Don't worry, Poli isn't allowed to play anymore

More afraid of the dreaded Blue Tortoise Shell.

[KWhit]

Huh?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Darth Vilus

Vote CrimsonFox

No wide receiver will beat me!

Curse you sith lord! I'm not making the same mistake I made last game.

Vote Darth Vilus

[Danny]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Huh?

I had the same reaction and had to look it up as well. CF commented that he didn't like being first on list and then Lathum had the response that was quoted.

[KWhit]

Since I have literally nothing to go on, I'll put a vote on Danny - my competition at QB. The only reason I'm doing this is that I have no other reason to vote for someone. I don't want us to fall in the trap of playing the football draft game and letting the wolves eat us alive. If anything suspicious comes up, I'll move my vote in a heartbeat, because it's more important for us to find the wolves than to be drafted high.

VOTE DANNY

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Huh?

The blue tortoise shells that will no doubt be hurled by everyone to knock me out of first place. It's a Mario Kart reference. The blue shell is a special item that you throw and it a) seeks out the lead cart, b) stuns them for several seconds when it hits, and c) never misses.

Here's a demo of blue shell pain:

[henry296]

I also spent 6 points

[Chief Rum]

Alas, I must be off to get my grill shined up for my interview at the combine (i.e. I am off to a regularly scheduled dentist appointment, ugh).

It's possible I'll be back before deadline, but I wouldn't count on it. I was stuck there last time for about two hours, and they're kinda doing the same stuff. So I have to vote now.

As the only DE, which Team #2 is looking at for a positiion, I might as well go after #1. I don't think Abe will be there at the end, so instead I'll vote for a LB target, since the #1 team likes LBs, too.

VOTE HENRY296

I hope to return in time to put this on a candidate in a close vote, but I don't know if that will happen.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by henry296

Autumn, that seems right even with a cunning.

Just re-read the rules and no cunning wolf. Definitely three wolves.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Danny

Im guessing that mid level all spent 5 points and I was just ahead due to the 6th point I put.

Then there is a rational or scout-error component. I put 4 points and I'm higher on that list.

[Schmidty]

I worked from 9 a.m. - 2 p.m. today (PST), and didn't realize we had to get points in by a certain time during the early day.

Basically, I didn't send any points in today. I'll be sure to do more tomorrow.

Now, still catching up.

Originally Posted by henry296

Some quick senior bowl thoughts.

Autumn / Schmidty were both middle of the pack and appeared to mail-in the senior bowl.

Abe definitely put in some points trying to move up from the bottom of the pack.

Let me through out an idea that just popped in my head. Since the wolves are characterized as cheaters in the game, do we think they might get a bonus or have an ability to perform better on the events? Thus there 5 points might be better than the 5 points of a vanilla villager?

[Schmidty]

Ok, I'll likely change this if we end up having too many candidates, but I'll go with the vote-off-the-competition thing for now:

Vote J23

[ntndeacon]

I suspect that the top of the board will not change too much.

[ntndeacon]

I think there isn't a second vote on anyone yet. We need to start sometime. So...
Vote Jackal

[Danny]

Unvote Abe
Vote Henry

Need to leave soon and we have to consolidate our votes. Going with Henry because he is generally a quiet player who can be tough to read because of it.

[Autumn]

Wow, I must suck if Schmidty did better than me despite putting 0 points in. I will consider the paranoid theory that someone used a skill to make me suck.

[jeheinz72]

Do we have a count? 2 on Henry and 2 on Jackal?

[henry296]

Mostly self-preservation

vote Jackal

[Abe Sargent]

Keep it close.

Vote henry

[Chief Rum]

Vote Count As Of Post #136

henry296 (3)-- Chief Rum (125), Danny (132), Abe Sargent (136)
The Jackal (3)-- Autumn (108), ntndeacon (131), henry296 (135)
Schmidty (1)-- J23 (83)
ntndeacon (1)-- jeheinz72 (109)
Crimson Fox (1)-- Darth Vilius (110)
Autumn (1)-- The Jackal (114)
Darth Vilius (1)-- Crimson Fox (120)
Danny (1)-- KWhit (122)
J23 (1)-- Schmidty (129)

Yet To Vote: hoopsguy

Today's Unvotes: Danny unvoted Abe Sargent (vtd 111, unv 132)

[Chief Rum]

Obviously, I am back. Still numb, no pain yet.

Well, I was first on henry, and I certainly don't have a reason to switch off right now. What happens in a tie, though, is hidden in the rules. Do we want to test that for results or avoid it altogether?

I can go either way. There's certainly a risk that there won't be a lynch at all, or maybe a double lynch, and we'll kill someone important. But this is the best time to take that risk to figure out the tie mechanism, when there are a lot of people to hide good roles and also a lot of time to make up for an early mistake.

But push comes to shove, I would rather have the certain lynch. Time is running short--will hoops show up in time? I know he said he would stop back later, but did he mean after the deadline?

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, not a ton of posts to go through which makes this a bit easier. Just going to look back and see if there is any kind of reason for the votes on either candidate.

I've got a bit over an hour, correct? CST?

[hoopsguy]

Also, I said I would indicate how many points I spent today - I spent two. So far the only person indicating a point expenditure that differs from the ranking (points, followed by alphabetical) is Heinz. So I'm hoping that he is a strong candidate to be scanned tonight so we can figure out if his version of events (scout error) is on the up-and-up.

That said, it is his first game back and his schedule is work-only access, so I'm not trying to bum rush him out of the game just yet by leading votes on him. I just want the discrepancy noted.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm, not a ton of posts to go through which makes this a bit easier. Just going to look back and see if there is any kind of reason for the votes on either candidate.

I've got a bit over an hour, correct? CST?

Yeah, think you do. Glad you said that, too, because I was thinking 6 p.m. deadline (local) in my mind--which would be in 3 minutes.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, I said I would indicate how many points I spent today - I spent two. So far the only person indicating a point expenditure that differs from the ranking (points, followed by alphabetical) is Heinz. So I'm hoping that he is a strong candidate to be scanned tonight so we can figure out if his version of events (scout error) is on the up-and-up.

That said, it is his first game back and his schedule is work-only access, so I'm not trying to bum rush him out of the game just yet by leading votes on him. I just want the discrepancy noted.

Well, I spent 3 points and ended up dead last, so I think there's a lot more than energy being considered here somehow. Remember PB said there were people with skills who can affect outcomes, and possibly other things going on.

[Autumn]

I'm out again for a bit, no reason to move my vote at the moment so I'll check back when I can.

[Chief Rum]

Before we did even one thing, there was a rankings list. Now, either PB pulled that out of a hat, or he had some way of differentiating us right from the start. I would imagine whatever those factors are that went into that list are still in effect with the scout's list.

Keep in mind, though, PB as much as suggested this was just a snapshot or one person's opinion or something like that. The scout's ranking seems to be much more of a midday placeholder than an actual consensus of all opinion on us as prospects.

Also, PB said it was a scout's take on the players' performances in the Senior Bowl. What if certain positions play better in actual performance? Or there is different talent among us? And that's not to mention that we know there are players with abilities to enhance (I think) or inhibit (for sure) the performances of other players.

[henry296]

i have nothing to reveal.

[hoopsguy]

I'll take my chances going the other way on Henry, based on post #145. This is a ton more consistent with villager henry than wolf henry.

I'll do one more pass through the last 50-75 posts, but as it stands:

VOTE THE JACKAL

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by henry296

Just re-read the rules and no cunning wolf. Definitely three wolves.

Without anything else to go on, this feels a little weird to me. I went back and looked at the posts from Henry and Jackal and this was the only thing that stuck out. I think sometimes wolves go out of their way to downplay their knowledge of the rules. This statement could be henry doing that. It's not much, but it's enough for day 1, IMO.

UNVOTE DANNY
VOTE HENRY

[KWhit]

Ack - I didn't see that Hoops was voting for Jack. Looks like we're still tied?

[KWhit]

Yeah - looks like 4-4 between Jackal and Henry.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'll take my chances going the other way on Henry, based on post #145. This is a ton more consistent with villager henry than wolf henry.

I'll do one more pass through the last 50-75 posts, but as it stands:

Help me understand why you say that. I don't have a good feel on his normal play.