Iran War 2026

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by dubb93

So there is no way to accomplish our goals here without boots on the ground, right?

What's the goal? If Trump wants an unambiguous victory over Iran, then boots on the ground and an occupation that will make Afghanistan & Vietnam look like Sunday picnics will be required, and it will outlast him even if he lives to 99.

If Trump wants everybody in Iran dead, we could nuke them, but things certainly wouldn't go back to normal after that.

If Trump wants the economic damage to the U.S. (and his precious stock market & oil prices) back to normal, then he could declare victory, pull out, and move on to his next stupidity. But then he'd have to deal with everyone saying how it was the dumbest thing ever. But maybe that's why he's setting up others to be the fall guys here.

So, there's a bunch of options, but they all kind of suck.

This is turning into a disaster.

Just like anyone could have predicted before it happened.

[Ghost Econ]

We had $250k from our house sale just sitting in a savings account. We had started working with a financial planner and at the end of last month transferred the money to a new Vanguard account.

Great timing.

[Ghost Econ]

17 days ago at the State of the Union, Trump said gas was under $2. So if you believe his original numbers, he's actually made it rise over $1 in just under 400 hours.

It's gone from how great he has been for gas prices to no one cares in less time than people put into Baldur's Gate.

[JPhillips]

Hard to argue.

Hegseth: “The only thing prohibiting transit in [Hormuz] right now is Iran shooting at shipping.”

“It is open for transit should Iran not do that”

[RainMaker]

I mentioned in the other thread that FT is reporting that the Treasury is the one selling oil futures to keep the price down which is completely insane.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Hard to argue.

Hegseth channeling his inner Magic Johnson

[RainMaker]

Another gem from his presser.

“The sooner David Ellison takes over [CNN], the better.”

[JPhillips]

The announcement about the Marine unit is either a bluff or the beginning of something much larger. A 2500 person unit available for combat a couple of weeks from now isn't enough to do much of anything.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Another gem from his presser.

He's pissed that CNN said the war intensifies when he said attacks intensify just a couple of days ago.

But he probably missed that because he was focused on woke war colleges and unflattering pictures.

[RainMaker]

Estimates are now up to $1.9 billion a day for this war. Saw that if it lasted an entire year, you could eliminate income tax for everything under $150k for the same amount.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I mentioned in the other thread that FT is reporting that the Treasury is the one selling oil futures to keep the price down which is completely insane.

That would explain the call from the President that the Treasure Secretary took while he was being interviewed by SkyNews, and when he returned he was white as a sheet.

[GrantDawg]

I know I am a child, but every time I see the word "littora" I think "Dirty!".

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The announcement about the Marine unit is either a bluff or the beginning of something much larger. A 2500 person unit available for combat a couple of weeks from now isn't enough to do much of anything.

I don't think it a bluff. There are some benefits outside of just the boots that this unit can provide. They have some very high end radar systems along with a large contingent of F-35B's. Most likely though, they are looking at invading Kharg Island. It is the port that 90% of all Iran oil flows through. The idea has been floated of a joint attack by US and gulf states to seize control of the island. It would definitely hurt Iran economically, but it would definitely be paid for in blood. Also, those landing craft would have to go the the straight to get there, which is very high risk.

[JPhillips]

Perhaps. I expect Iran has plenty of time to rig the island with explosives if they haven't done that already. Pretty risky.

[flere-imsaho]

"Some of you will have to die." - Donald Trump.

[RainMaker]

They don't really have a choice at this point but to put boots on the ground. Iran doesn't have any incentive to end this. Israel is loving this as they have shifted their ethnic cleansing to Lebanon. Keeping the Strait closed helps Iran and their allies.

[GrantDawg]

5 US tankers have taken damage from attacks on the ground in Saudi Arabia. They are all repairable, but it is still a costly hit.

[SirFozzie]

@donmoyn.bsky.social on Bluesky

The Pentagon is so desperate to not be ripped to shreds in press conferences, this is the actual order of "reporters" they called on from a recent press conference:

One American News, Epoch Times, Real America's Voice, Lindell TV

[Thomkal]

all very credible

[dubb93]

When I want my news I go straight to the source at Lindell TV.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

5 US tankers have taken damage from attacks on the ground in Saudi Arabia. They are all repairable, but it is still a costly hit.

Airforce tankers. I just realized that was unclear.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by dubb93

When I want my news I go straight to the source at Lindell TV.

If they don't have a show called "Pillow Talk" I'll be greatly disappointed.

[JPhillips]

Trump has good and bad news for us.

Good: We've destroyed 100% of Iran's military

Bad: They still have mines, drones, and missiles to shut down the Strait of Hormuz

[JPhillips]

Also,

"Do not attempt to come to the Embassy in Baghdad or the Consulate General in Erbil due to the ongoing risk of rockets, drones, and mortars in Iraqi airspace.”

[JPhillips]

double dola

If the Iranians really let anyone other than Israel nd the US through the strait, that's going to really help with global oil prices.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

double dola

If the Iranians really let anyone other than Israel nd the US through the strait, that's going to really help with global oil prices.

I want to know what that means. Oil heading to the US? Because the US gets very little oil from Gulf. American companies hwve huge interest in the Gulf, though. Are they saying any oil that comes from US companies?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I want to know what that means. Oil heading to the US? Because the US gets very little oil from Gulf. American companies hwve huge interest in the Gulf, though. Are they saying any oil that comes from US companies?

Oil traded in yuan and not the dollar is the nightmare scenario which Iran might just make happen. That's the goal.

Iran can't win militarily but they seem to understand that the U.S. military operates to protect capital and nothing more. That is how you target them.

[dubb93]

Maybe Trump can rely on his fellow Board of Peace members to send their mighty navy ships to the Strait of Hormuz since he's treated our traditional allies so badly that they are refusing to offer assistance.

[RainMaker]

He keeps forgetting about a country that is our closest ally when discussing sending ships.

[albionmoonlight]

Iran has had asshole leadership that pretty much the entire world has hated for decades.

The reason that they hadn't already been overthrown is because by geographic accident, they control the most economically important waterway in the world. If attacking Iran were easy, it would have already happened.

The problem with this administration isn't that they're dumb. Lots of administrations are dumb. The problem is that they (and their associates) think that everyone else is dumb.

They think that no one's attacked Iran because no one was smart enough to think of it.

They think that no one has cut government waste because no one thought to try to do it.

They think that we aren't on Mars yet because no one had tried to go.

They think that the border is "open" because no one has thought about closing it.

Basically, they think that the world is a simple place and they are the only people smart enough to see it. Almost every failing of this administration (and its associates) flows from that one belief.

[GrantDawg]

So true. It is a administration of your drunk uncle sitting at the table saying how easy everything is to fix when he really doesn't even fully understand the problem.

[Passacaglia]

[JPhillips]

We're begging other countries for minesweepers and they're saying no.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

He keeps forgetting about a country that is our closest ally when discussing sending ships.

He does not have allies. He has resource extraction sources. That's all. Maybe in the next administration, alliances can be recovered. Maybe.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

One of the greatest albums of all time.

Video is an all time favorite.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Mota

Maybe in the next administration, alliances can be recovered. Maybe.

Zero chance.

It isn't about trump, he is just the end result.

It is about a country with an electorate that has the capacity to elect Trump, see what a nightmare is was, the elect him again 4 years later because eggs were expensive and Biden fell off his bike.

What we as a country have done in 15 months will take generations to rebuild trust, if we ever do. Trump will be synonymous with America for decades. 80 years after the Nazis I still associate Germany with them as I suspect many others do as well.

We elected him and we are getting exactly what we deserve.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Mota

Maybe in the next administration, alliances can be recovered. Maybe.

Zero chance.

It isn't about trump, he is just the end result.

It is about a country with an electorate that has the capacity to elect Trump, see what a nightmare is was, the elect him again 4 years later because eggs were expensive and Biden fell off his bike.

What we as a country have done in 15 months will take generations to rebuild trust, if we ever do. Trump will be synonymous with America for decades. 80 years after the Nazis I still associate Germany with them as I suspect many others do as well.

We elected him and we are getting exactly what we deserve.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Iran has had asshole leadership that pretty much the entire world has hated for decades.

The reason that they hadn't already been overthrown is because by geographic accident, they control the most economically important waterway in the world. If attacking Iran were easy, it would have already happened.

The problem with this administration isn't that they're dumb. Lots of administrations are dumb. The problem is that they (and their associates) think that everyone else is dumb.

They think that no one's attacked Iran because no one was smart enough to think of it.

They think that no one has cut government waste because no one thought to try to do it.

They think that we aren't on Mars yet because no one had tried to go.

They think that the border is "open" because no one has thought about closing it.

Basically, they think that the world is a simple place and they are the only people smart enough to see it. Almost every failing of this administration (and its associates) flows from that one belief.

This is all true and you have to throw in a healthy dose of machismo. These guys want to cosplay as tough guys, WAR FIGHTERS!! They think they are vikings but they are far too stupid to consider the ramifications of their actions.

They are 9 year olds who got access to their dads gun and now they want to show everyone what a badass they are,

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

because eggs were expensive and Biden fell off his bike.

Not understanding why Trump was elected is a problem with the opposition side of the electorate. Went a bit beyond falling off his bike. High inflation, massacring a few hundred thousands innocent people, and not being able to form a coherent sentence in a debate had a bit more to do with it.

People like Trump gain power when leaders repeatedly fail at providing for the needs of the public. Just about every authoritarian in history can be traced back to this.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Maybe Trump can rely on his fellow Board of Peace members to send their mighty navy ships to the Strait of Hormuz since he's treated our traditional allies so badly that they are refusing to offer assistance.

Trump's administration still hasn't down their homework and read up on the 9/11 aftermath on how Bush jr persuaded NATO to go to war. All that so shortly after Trump got basically spoon fed the how-to get NATO on board by Mark Rutte.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Not understanding why Trump was elected is a problem with the opposition side of the electorate. Went a bit beyond falling off his bike. High inflation, massacring a few hundred thousands innocent people, and not being able to form a coherent sentence in a debate had a bit more to do with it.

People like Trump gain power when leaders repeatedly fail at providing for the needs of the public. Just about every authoritarian in history can be traced back to this.

You give the average voter entirely too much credit.

I know you obsess about Israel and Gaza but I can tell you the economy is a way bigger issue for people. According to a Gallup poll Israel and Gaza were the 15th most important to voters. Not to mention how many Americans died because of Trump mishandling Covid.

Not to mention Trumps mishandling of covid gave us that inflation and lets not act like Trump is some wordsmith.

Trump completely failed the public yet they put him back in power.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

You give the average voter entirely too much credit.

I know you obsess about Israel and Gaza but I can tell you the economy is a way bigger issue for people. According to a Gallup poll Israel and Gaza were the 15th most important to voters. Not to mention how many Americans died because of Trump mishandling Covid.

Not to mention Trumps mishandling of covid gave us that inflation and lets not act like Trump is some wordsmith.

Trump completely failed the public yet they put him back in power.

Inflation was through the roof under Biden and the response from Democrats was "the economy is great!". We all saw them lie to our faces about Biden's mental condition. And the DNC themselves just had a report on the election that showed they lost considerable support over Gaza.

But it goes deeper than that. This was about what the Democrats stood for in an election. They spent years screaming about the rise of fascism and threats to democracy. They proceeded to take power and support fascism and threats to democracy around the world. They proceeded to ignore threats of fascism here in this country. So if people see you're full of shit on those issues, why would they think you're serious about anything else?

At some point you have to offer something to the public besides "orange man bad". Especially when the party didn't really treat him as bad once Biden got elected.

[Lathum]

Weird. I don't recall Biden being on the ballot.

They chose someone who had a disastrous first term and left a mess for his predecessor over someone who was AG of the biggest state, a senator, and a VP.

Everything you are claiming about Biden doing Trump did in his first term and worse. Then he told us for 4 years what he was going to do and they voted him in anyway.

You seriously don't think the rest of the world looks at that and says WTF?

[JPhillips]

Everything is always the fault of the Dems. Trump won because a lot of people liked that he was going to hurt the right people. Now some of them are upset because he's hurting the wrong people.

Even in a Trump v Obama race Trump would clear 40%. Lots of Americans want what he sells.

[GrantDawg]

Rainmaker is not completely wrong on the fact Dems try to sell messages that their actions do not show they truly believe. If they truly believed in the severe threat to Democracy that Trump posed, they would have completely sold out on getting voting rights laws in place after 2020 like Trump is doing wirh the SAVE act now. Instead they shrugged and said "Joe Manchin said no" and let it go. If they truly believed what Trump did in his first term was criminal, they would have aggressively prosecuted him the second he was out of office. Instead they drug their feet until it was close to election time.
Everything is not all the Dems fault, but they have been terrible at fighting the real danger we face. They are too interested in funding their campaigns and insider trading on the knowledge they get than actually defending Democracy.

[JPhillips]

I don't think you can lump everyone into they. There are plenty of Dems willing to do more right now, but not enough. I think and have thought that leadership is feckless and there's very little understanding of what Dems will do with power if they get it.

But that's a far cry from Dems and GOPers are the same. I think Biden's position on Gaza was wrong, but I also think that's way better than Gaza, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, and who knows what next. A plague on both of their houses just empowers the worst elements of the GOP.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Weird. I don't recall Biden being on the ballot.

No, he had to bow out after the party lied about his mental condition for years and put a woman on the ballot who was less popular than Andrew Yang.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Rainmaker is not completely wrong on the fact Dems try to sell messages that their actions do not show they truly believe. If they truly believed in the severe threat to Democracy that Trump posed, they would have completely sold out on getting voting rights laws in place after 2020 like Trump is doing wirh the SAVE act now. Instead they shrugged and said "Joe Manchin said no" and let it go. If they truly believed what Trump did in his first term was criminal, they would have aggressively prosecuted him the second he was out of office. Instead they drug their feet until it was close to election time.
Everything is not all the Dems fault, but they have been terrible at fighting the real danger we face. They are too interested in funding their campaigns and insider trading on the knowledge they get than actually defending Democracy.

He was literally on an audio recording breaking the law. They stormed the capitol at his discretion. If they gave a shit about democracy and stemming the tide of fascism, they'd have arrested him for any of his numerous crimes like South Korea and Brazil did to their criminal leaders. At some point, the lack of action results in people realizing you don't take any of those statements seriously.

Even when Trump won again they caved the second they got some leverage in the government shutdown. Democratic Governors and Mayors did jack shit as their citizens were getting gunned down in broad daylight.

Yeah, a certain percent of the country will vote for the Republican no matter what they do. A certain percent of the country will vote Democrat no matter what they do. Your party is responsible for winning over the rest.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't think you can lump everyone into they. There are plenty of Dems willing to do more right now, but not enough. I think and have thought that leadership is feckless and there's very little understanding of what Dems will do with power if they get it.

But that's a far cry from Dems and GOPers are the same. I think Biden's position on Gaza was wrong, but I also think that's way better than Gaza, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, and who knows what next. A plague on both of their houses just empowers the worst elements of the GOP.

I didn't lump everyone into "they", but the what the leadership did or did not do. It is a leadership problem and it doesn't seem to be getting solved.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

One of the greatest albums of all time.

Video is an all time favorite.

YES! Vivid memories of sophomore year in college playing it while trying to get homework done, and thinking "okay I need to listen to this again, right now" as soon as it was done. Ben Folds solo was never as good.

I hadn't seen the video before, but seeing that MTV font really took me back.