COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[RainMaker]

Now that we have determined who in the NBA has the virus, when can the rest of us get tested?

[Flasch186]

Today is the first day I felt some real fear when looking out at the next 12-24 months. Economically and education-wise for the kids. Financially I can weather the long run but there's a ton of our country that cannot.

[Arles]

Yeah, there's a bit of "throwing the baby out with the bath water" on a 2-3 month lockdown. Don't get me wrong, I think doing this initially for 3-4 weeks is the right move. But, we have to start transitioning back into society and giving businesses a way to stay in business. In Mid April, allowing smaller gatherings (maybe under 25 people), re-opening restaurants and movie theaters while still recommending people stay home when possible seems reasonable. I also think looking at getting kids back in school at that point isn't a bad idea. This doesn't seem to impact kids and we can find ways to protect older teachers - but our police/fire/nurse/doctor/scientist population with kids needs to be able to go back to work. Plus, losing 2-3 months of school isn't ideal either. We can keep extra curricular activities cancelled, but we need atleast a couple days a week of classroom time for kids.

[Castlerock]

Confirmed case in the assisted living facility where my Dad lives.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Arles

We can't just shut down the country until July and lose 50-60% of our small businesses.

We don't lose them permanently, just temporarily. I'm curious if you've read JPhillips' link to the discussion of the Imperial College report? I'm inclined to agree with that analysis/science (basically that the cost of not extending the shutdown is worse than the cost of doing so).

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

We don't lose them permanently, just temporarily. I'm curious if you've read JPhillips' link to the discussion of the Imperial College report? I'm inclined to agree with that analysis/science (basically that the cost of not extending the shutdown is worse than the cost of doing so).

I read it and I wish I hadn't.

If what it says is true, we're not getting back to normal until sometime in 2021.

I am all for having hope, etc, but if I'm back working in the office before August, I will be surprised.

Hopefully warm weather can impact this thing.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Castlerock

Confirmed case in the assisted living facility where my Dad lives.

Jesus man, how scary. Hoping for the best.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Today is the first day I felt some real fear when looking out at the next 12-24 months. Economically and education-wise for the kids. Financially I can weather the long run but there's a ton of our country that cannot.

I am with you regarding the disruptions. I can weather the financial storm and deal with the kids. Wife works for Duracell so her job is as safe as can be. She also works from home.

My big concern is if supply chains start shutting down. There is such an economic divide in this country already it would be made way worse. There are people out there now who don't have what they need. Imagine if essentials get scarcer. Lots of looting and theft.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Castlerock

Confirmed case in the assisted living facility where my Dad lives.

Fuck dude. Hoping for the best.

[molson]

The impact of social media and the minute-to-minute information on this stuff is kind of fascinating. I'm sure there's good and bad to it.

If I was younger, not working, without responsibility, without a sense that I needed to be involved and help (a lot of ifs), I'd consider just going camping for a month or shutting myself off from all news or outside contact for a month. Not to protect myself, but just to escape, to have a unique experience. I wonder if there's anyone doing that.

Edit: Maybe I'll try it for a weekend.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Lathum

People will set up de facto daycares at each others houses and that will completely defeat the purpose. That is basically what started happening here with schooling until the superintendent sent an email basically telling people to stop doing it.

I have a friend who's watching two of her daughter's schoolmates and I'm like...are you quarantining them with the two of you for the duration? Because otherwise...

[NobodyHere]

88 cases in Ohio and businesses are being asked to take the temperature of employees.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

It would take a leader with a complete lack of compassion and empathy for us to go in that direction.

Oh, wait...

Finally! We found something he's perfectly suited for: talking about killing people in a non-compassionate way.


SI

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My big concern is if supply chains start shutting down. There is such an economic divide in this country already it would be made way worse. There are people out there now who don't have what they need. Imagine if essentials get scarcer. Lots of looting and theft.

This is what I'm most afraid of.

At what point does the prevention become worse than the disease?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Finally! We found something he's perfectly suited for: talking about killing people in a non-compassionate way.


SI

He is doing a fine job of it with the market!

[Lathum]

Kind of morbid, but if the dead start piling up what do we do with them. Funeral homes would obviously be over run, and people wouldn't be having services anyway. would they just get stored in morgues until burials could happen? Is there even the capacity? Forced cremation? You think of mass graves as something that happens in the third world, but is that an option? What happens to the people who die at home? Will there be ambulances, etc...to pick them up?

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Kind of morbid, but if the dead start piling up what do we do with them. Funeral homes would obviously be over run, and people wouldn't be having services anyway. would they just get stored in morgues until burials could happen? Is there even the capacity? Forced cremation? You think of mass graves as something that happens in the third world, but is that an option? What happens to the people who die at home? Will there be ambulances, etc...to pick them up?

I think that's something that is lost on a lot of people, is what a lonely and horrible death it is. It isn't sit around the bedside and hold mom's hand as she passes. It's more like mom dies alone. It's awful and tragic, and I hope by some miracle it doesn't get as bad as it could here.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't see any real danger of supply chains shutting down. Nobody's talking about closing essential businesses like that. You'd have to have enough dead (way worse numbers than anyone is seriously contemplating, black death-level decimation percentage-wise) before that's a real concern IMO. At that point yeah the overreaction argument could definitely be had, but again that's so far beyond what we're talking about here. This is a bad virus, not an extinction-level event.

[bob]

Originally Posted by molson

The impact of social media and the minute-to-minute information on this stuff is kind of fascinating. I'm sure there's good and bad to it.

If I was younger, not working, without responsibility, without a sense that I needed to be involved and help (a lot of ifs), I'd consider just going camping for a month or shutting myself off from all news or outside contact for a month. Not to protect myself, but just to escape, to have a unique experience. I wonder if there's anyone doing that.

Edit: Maybe I'll try it for a weekend.

Long ago I read an article about a group that went on a long outdoor trip (think it was rafting the Grand Canyon) on 9/9/2001. They didn't get off the river until a week or so afterwards and stepped into a completely changed world.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Kind of morbid, but if the dead start piling up what do we do with them. Funeral homes would obviously be over run, and people wouldn't be having services anyway. would they just get stored in morgues until burials could happen? Is there even the capacity? Forced cremation? You think of mass graves as something that happens in the third world, but is that an option? What happens to the people who die at home? Will there be ambulances, etc...to pick them up?

Iran was apparently digging mass graves a few days ago:
Coronavirus mass graves in Iran allegedly shown in satellite images as experts question country's official virus figures - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


SI

[Poli]

I just turned away a neighbor's kid. Make me the bad guy, why don't you.

[Brian Swartz]

You're the neighbor they need, even if you aren't the one they want right now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Poli

I just turned away a neighbor's kid. Make me the bad guy, why don't you.

We have a chain text of girl scout moms and me ( oh yeah! ) with about 10 of us on it.

One of the moms has a decent amount of land and sent a text saying " come over tomorrow for a social distancing nature walk at 4:30"

No one replied to it and I was glad.

[Thomkal]

Last foray out for the next couple of weeks here-Walmart finally feeling the pinch here-lots of empty shelves. Still a fair amount of folks out though bringing in infants unless you had no other choice probably not the best idea.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by molson

The impact of social media and the minute-to-minute information on this stuff is kind of fascinating. I'm sure there's good and bad to it.

If I was younger, not working, without responsibility, without a sense that I needed to be involved and help (a lot of ifs), I'd consider just going camping for a month or shutting myself off from all news or outside contact for a month. Not to protect myself, but just to escape, to have a unique experience. I wonder if there's anyone doing that.

Edit: Maybe I'll try it for a weekend.

JaredLetoDigs had this 2 weeks ago

[JPhillips]

Rafters Emerge to Coronavirus

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

I think that's something that is lost on a lot of people, is what a lonely and horrible death it is. It isn't sit around the bedside and hold mom's hand as she passes. It's more like mom dies alone. It's awful and tragic, and I hope by some miracle it doesn't get as bad as it could here.

I've heard that the 1st person in Indiana to die from this had to say goodbye to their spouse, who gave it to them to start with, via Facetime.

Gut wrenching shit.

[RainMaker]

Trump is definitely outflanking the left in this crisis. Cash payments, foreclosure suspension, and taking over private factories to produce supplies.

Pelosi and Schumer are completely worthless hacks who should step down.

[GrantDawg]

I am still out working. What I am seeing here is people just annoyed. I had it called "just a cold" by a man that would be in a high-risk group. My wife's and daughters eye centers are still open. They will not close unless they are forced to. My boss and their bosses are refusing to believe they will be forced to shut down.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Kind of morbid, but if the dead start piling up what do we do with them. Funeral homes would obviously be over run, and people wouldn't be having services anyway. would they just get stored in morgues until burials could happen? Is there even the capacity? Forced cremation? You think of mass graves as something that happens in the third world, but is that an option? What happens to the people who die at home? Will there be ambulances, etc...to pick them up?

This is how I imagine the US in 6 months

[GrantDawg]

https://abcnews.go.com/International...frica-69645522

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Trump is definitely outflanking the left in this crisis. Cash payments, foreclosure suspension, and taking over private factories to produce supplies.

Pelosi and Schumer are completely worthless hacks who should step down.

Yeah, they were Dem ideas, that are now being put into play and practice that were long called stupid, overbearing, or unneeded. That's a win. You can claim that all day long and point fingers at the other side in the process.

[PilotMan]

dola


Where are the hard core "free-market capitalists" in all this?



You know, the ones who never want any government help, that the world should just fall as it will and supply and demand will fix everything?

[molson]

Our state legislature is still hard at work passing anti-trans bills and abortion trigger bills that would render abortion a felony offense for the doctor the second Roe v. Wade is overturned. (a good reminder of the potential impact of a tantrum non-vote or protest vote if their preferred Dem doesn't get nominated).

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

What I am seeing here is people just annoyed. I had it called "just a cold" by a man that would be in a high-risk group. My wife's and daughters eye centers are still open. They will not close unless they are forced to. My boss and their bosses are refusing to believe they will be forced to shut down.

Whether that actually happens depends lot on what business you are in. Someone I used to work with recently just said they were irritated with all the news and it wasn't that big of a deal. Didn't even bother arguing because it's a waste of time but I can't find one single intelligent person who has educated themselves on the subject or expert in a vaguely relevant field who is still standing behind that approach.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't see any real danger of supply chains shutting down. Nobody's talking about closing essential businesses like that. You'd have to have enough dead (way worse numbers than anyone is seriously contemplating, black death-level decimation percentage-wise) before that's a real concern IMO. At that point yeah the overreaction argument could definitely be had, but again that's so far beyond what we're talking about here. This is a bad virus, not an extinction-level event.

I agree this won't be an ELE (love Deep Impact movie!) or even near ELE but degradation of the supply chain is happening now and there will be shortages.

Supply chain can mean many things but its pretty clear supply chain on test kits, respirators, whatever drugs used for treatment etc. are in shortage.

Supply chain on household good including sanitizers, toilet paper, and yeah, let's toss in guns & ammo are impacted.

Supply chain on food, there is reduction in variety & quantity of staples like eggs, fresh meats, potatoes etc. Also food from outside the country like mangos from Mexico, pineapples from Hawaii, bananas from wherever etc.

It's not critical in the sense we will have starvation, but we'll get uncomfortable and "highly inconvenienced" not being able to buy what we want and when we want it. I will add its not inconceivable that getting food to places can take a hit, if this lasts an extended time. Truck drivers, rail workers, distribution centers will all be degraded some.

There will be a period of another 8 weeks where it'll be challenging.

There will be a new normal where the vulnerable and their helpers will have to self-isolate. IMO they should start talking about that now to prepare people and implement this in 2-4 weeks.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

I think that's something that is lost on a lot of people, is what a lonely and horrible death it is. It isn't sit around the bedside and hold mom's hand as she passes. It's more like mom dies alone. It's awful and tragic, and I hope by some miracle it doesn't get as bad as it could here.

I was listening to The Daily the other day and they had an Italian doctor on and he was talking about this. It wasn't actually something I had given much thought to. But really, once someone goes into the hospital, that's it and they don't get to see anyone, nor does anyone get to see them, again. Not to mention that they were so busy that sometimes they were forgetting to call people and tell them that their loved ones had died.

[PilotMan]

the US has officially passed S Korea in cases. Should end up with close to 9k +/- cases by the end of the day if the rate holds.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

the US has officially passed S Korea in cases. Should end up with close to 9k +/- cases by the end of the day if the rate holds.

Curious where you got the data from? The chart I'm looking at still shows us behind.

On the flip side, we've had potential community exposure here by a medical professional in St Louis. The excitement, and other stuff, are in the air.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Poli

Curious where you got the data from? The chart I'm looking at still shows us behind.

On the flip side, we've had potential community exposure here by a medical professional in St Louis. The excitement, and other stuff, are in the air.

From the Worldmeters site that is updated almost in real time.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Poli]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

From the Worldmeters site that is updated almost in real time.


Coronavirus Update (Live): 217,583 Cases and 8,936 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Thank you, thank you.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Supply chain can mean many things but its pretty clear supply chain on test kits, respirators, whatever drugs used for treatment etc. are in shortage.

Definitely true and I expect this to be a permanent issue for however long the outbreak lasts which I'm not prepared to even speculate on. When I say supply chain, I'm talking about the normal flow of things not the spike in demand for equipment like this, some of which like test kits for coronavirus didn't even exist, because the virus was not known, even six months ago. I think that's what the other posters were referring to as well. .

Originally Posted by Edward64

Supply chain on food, there is reduction in variety & quantity of staples like eggs, fresh meats, potatoes etc.

Also true but a lot of this is an initial panic-buying spike which has already dissipated significantly in many areas. The actual supply of many of these things is ramping up, not slowing down as suppliers & retailers up and down the chain do what they can to adjust. I totally agree with you that there are and will continue to be temporary outages; the nightmare scenario though is what happens if there is a significant reduction in actual supply across the board, or even cutting off of entire sectors of the economy. I think that fits more with what Lathum said about such things 'shutting down', in his words. That's the area where I would say it crosses into unrealistic fearmongering territory. There's no reason that needs to happen. . For example, retailers are now hiring temporary workers from the food service industry to keep up with the former's demand while the latter is out of work. There's a certain amount of adjustment to ease supply issues that the economy can and is doing.

[booradley]

Office supply guy tried to order a new laptop for an employee from our usual source, and was informed that they were sold out. An unexpected wrinkle until you stop to consider the number of people now working form home.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by booradley

Office supply guy tried to order a new laptop for an employee from our usual source, and was informed that they were sold out. An unexpected wrinkle until you stop to consider the number of people now working form home.

I got basically the same here. We ordered 3 laptops with our usual suppliers. Ordering more than that was possible, but at about 150% of the normal price and with a delivery date of 2 weeks instead of 2 days. It's marginal in the grand scheme, but I told our crisis team we were accidentally and luckily well prepared with basically all that can work at home already geared up. Co-workers that still have to show up for 24/7 care, well, obviously there's no point in having a laptop to take home.

[Arles]

We've been able to get a few laptops, but good luck finding a docking station right now.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I also think someone in leadership has to bite the bullet and actually talk about the trade of a potential rise of deaths for the return of a more normal way of life. It is a real thing and it is going to be very uncomfortable. Who has shown the ability to lead that discussion?

Andrew Yang? Being in an election year doesn't help here, weirdly I think this is a place having 12 politicians trying to stand out on a debate stage could've helped spur some deeper discussion.

Originally Posted by Arles

Yeah, there's a bit of "throwing the baby out with the bath water" on a 2-3 month lockdown. Don't get me wrong, I think doing this initially for 3-4 weeks is the right move. But, we have to start transitioning back into society and giving businesses a way to stay in business. In Mid April, allowing smaller gatherings (maybe under 25 people), re-opening restaurants and movie theaters while still recommending people stay home when possible seems reasonable. I also think looking at getting kids back in school at that point isn't a bad idea. This doesn't seem to impact kids and we can find ways to protect older teachers - but our police/fire/nurse/doctor/scientist population with kids needs to be able to go back to work. Plus, losing 2-3 months of school isn't ideal either. We can keep extra curricular activities cancelled, but we need atleast a couple days a week of classroom time for kids.

Not sure why you'd cancel extra-curriculars if you're going to have kids in school. I coach lacrosse - do you really think having kids out on a large field for a couple hours after being in close contact with (more) kids all day will increase their risk of getting it?

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

We don't lose them permanently, just temporarily. I'm curious if you've read JPhillips' link to the discussion of the Imperial College report? I'm inclined to agree with that analysis/science (basically that the cost of not extending the shutdown is worse than the cost of doing so).

That's not how small businesses work. You can't just close them for 6-18 months and expect them to pick back up where they left off.

Yes I read the report, and I think it's using a lot of very suspect assumptions. South Korea seems like the one nation where confirmed case & death toll #'s might be close to accurate, and the spread was much more contained & the mortality rate much lower than other places. Considering you can use 3D printers for many of the parts the ventilator issue alone seems like one that's pretty easy to overcome in the medium term if we focus on it, same with testing now that we have focused on it.

The next two weeks will be telling... our best case scenario right now really is that the virus was here and spreading by mid-February (and there is anecdotal evidence it was), it just didn't catch people's attention until the Washington nursing home cluster happened at the same time as northern Italy stories started running rampant. If that's true, it would mean that it's not nearly as deadly as stories from northern Italy that are driving much of the hysteria make it seem. We should 100% be protecting and isolating older people as much as possible, since they are 100% of the confirmed deaths so far, but I'm glad we have a couple public data points in the 7 NBA players and the 77? people who caught it at the Biogen conference who presumably aren't as young & healthy as NBA players, but still fairly wealthy and early enough they have access to great medical care if they need hospitalization. If any of the NBA players die from it, oh yeah we're fucked, but I doubt that'll happen, and so far Massachusetts (which I realize only has like 53 of the Biogen cases) is still reporting 0 deaths.

Dallas allegedly having hospitalized (is it just 2?) people under the age of 40 is interesting to me, Ohio starting to check people's temperatures is interesting to me because nobody's clarified why temperature checks matter if you're infectious when not showing symptoms, and yes I know it's foolish to make guesses with so much riding on the next couple weeks, but if we're sitting here in 3-4 weeks with almost no deaths under the age of 50 & a peaked death rate we're going to need to have a serious conversation about how we can protect seniors and people with underlying conditions while the rest of us are allowed to live normal lives and keep the economy functioning. Obviously real life is different and we all have empathy and personal connections, but if I'm being super cynical I'd point out that this is just boomers asking their children and grandchildren to sacrifice for them without regard to the long term consequences for the younger generations, (and if this was any resource management game where we had the choice between shutting down the economy for 18 months or allowing a disease to kill off the weakest 1% of the population it wouldn't even be a question for any of us.)

[MIJB#19]

Interesting numbers from the most nearby prominent hospital treating covid19 patients: all employees with even minor symptoms get tested, 50 positives on roughly 1000 tested. As far as they could figure out, they all picked it up in the outside world, not from treating Corona patients. This thing is already going around in our society.

[Arles]

Can you imagine if we had a full-fledged social media and better data tracking back in 2009 when the Swine Flu broke out?

The results suggest that between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic influenza respiratory deaths occurred globally from April through December 2009.

The researchers took into account only deaths caused by respiratory diseases. However, people can die from bacterial infections that happen after they've been weakened by the flu. The H1N1 virus can also kill by worsening existing health problems, such as heart disease. The researchers found that when the H1N1 deaths due to causes other than respiratory disease are included, the 2009 pandemic toll might be as high as 400,000 people.

The results showed that 62 to 85 percent of those who died in the 2009 pandemic were younger than age 65. Usually, seasonal influenza (not H1N1) has the worst effect on seniors; only 19 percent of seasonal-influenza deaths occur in people age 65 and younger.

The whole world might have been shut down back then as well.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Arles

That's not how small businesses work. You can't just close them for 6-18 months and expect them to pick back up where they left off.

There's a difference between picking back up where they left off, which I'm not suggesting, and losing them, which is what you said. A lot of industries will see long-term pain and regrowth required. But they won't totally disappear either.

Vis a vis South Korea: sure, but we're not doing what they did. China appears to have contained it as well, and I think the virus will mutate and weaken as it goes like viruses do. But I do think we have to be prepared to take drastic steps for as long as is needed to get to the point of containment. And I don't think we have a remotely good handle on how much time that will take yet.

Originally Posted by Arles

if this was any resource management game where we had the choice between shutting down the economy for 18 months or allowing a disease to kill off the weakest 1% of the population it wouldn't even be a question for any of us.)

Right but nobody is saying shutting down the economy entirely. Not even Italy, Spain, etc. are doing that and certainly the less drastic steps most of the US it taking isn't. I.e in food service here, drive-thru and carryout are still happening so large sectors of even that part of the economy are still going. If they were totally left open they'd still be taking a hit, like the airlines are to an even greater degree, in their business. Numbers I'm seeing are 70-85% of establishments seeing a significant sales decline. Point is, this isn't an all-or-nothing deal. There is no 'keeping the economy running like it was' option.

To me, it comes down to the fact that you can't protect and isolate the older population without eliminating non-essential public gatherings. And even then you're exposing them to increased risk from family members etc. I certainly wish there were a path to segregate them from potential harm but that's not how our society is organized - to get the supplies of daily life they need, they are going to have to be exposed to some degree. Given the degree to which people of all ages depend on the medical system in general, it's not just the weakest 1%. ALL conditions requiring medical treatment are impacted if this spirals out of control. Until we're sure that's not going to happen - and if we can prevent it, great - it's far better to shut down those things that we can.

[Kodos]

Maybe 400,000 wouldn’t have died then.