2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[sabotai]

Brown Sugar Cinnamon is what parents buy when their kids have done something wrong.

[cuervo72]

You might as well just eat brown sugar with a spoon.

[Coffee Warlord]

Brown Sugar Cinnamon and S'mores are the only two allowable flavors.

[PilotMan]

I'm on the record as saying that all flavors of pop tarts are gross.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I'm on the record as saying that all flavors of pop tarts are gross.

I'm guessing it's because they haven't invented "Pretzel 'n Peanuts".

[cuervo72]

You know what, I would eat bags upon bags of Combos if there were no repercussions. (I really don't eat Pop Tarts anymore, even though I'm off the low-carb train they are still too much sugar.)

[Solecismic]

I'd take this:



over this:



I have been pretty good about avoiding both food groups the last decade or so, however. Now if only my food pyramid didn't have a large pepperoni and anchovy pizza at the base...

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I'm on the record as saying that all flavors of pop tarts are gross.

You sir are clearly not an American. :P

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Blueberry is obviously the best flavor and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot.

I'm an idiot and a well-fed one at that.

[Thomkal]

shame on you for taking us off-topic Jim (sorry couldn't resist )

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I can't believe I'm reading this. I considered strawberry and cherry for a long time. I even had a youthful love of blueberry, though it hasn't changed with the times. I just don't see how someone can vote for anything but brown sugar cinnamon. It's the only flavor that addresses the current Hostess crisis.

Some of you heathens probably even toast them...

And I guess I'm a heathen too, can't really eat them cold. Hostess crisis?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

shame on you for taking us off-topic Jim (sorry couldn't resist )

Don't you find it troubling that the Democrats are all about limiting Pop-Tart flavors to Quinoa, Non-Gluten and Pumice this season?

There is universal truth in this discussion.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Chocolate Fudge, that's non-negotiable.

Agreed.

[digamma]

I grew up a brown sugar cinnamon kid, but found the way to the S'mores Pop Tart in my teens. I've never gone back.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Dutch

I'm guessing it's because they haven't invented "Pretzel 'n Peanuts".

Or Diet Coke flavor.

[miked]

I can't believe anyone would eat anything other than brown sugar cinnamon. And never toast them, the taste goes away. In all seriousness, I use to eat them fairly regularly when I was young with no children and could play basketball for 2 hours a day. My wife informed me that they were indeed terrible for me and once my time to actually work out dwindled to a short run daily, I avoid them like the plague.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The media seems to want Christie now.

After Trump, Christie's probably the best GOP candidate for the media as far as eyeballs go. What they really don't want is a Clinton-Rubio snorefest (or Clinton-Bush). I mean, sure, Cruz is really out there, but at this point he's more-or-less Trump-lite. Which is crazy.

Originally Posted by Solecismic

What we've seen in Iowa is the recent deflation of Carson, seemingly from self-inflicted wounds.

I've never seen someone campaign on the "look at me, I used to be out of control and violent" platform.

I suspect it resonated with the core supporters he has who have bought in completely to his redemption & success story. The problem is that not enough of those people exist to win him the GOP nomination.

I keep saying this, but we're still a long way out by Iowa caucus standards. At this time four years ago, Santorum, the Iowa winner, was polling at 4% and the leader was Herman Cain.

Yes, everyone needs to keep remembering this. It's December 8th. People's brains are going to be all football & Christmas through January 1.

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Several of my liberal friends have been delighting on facebook taking Trumps most reprehensible shit and stating/implying that "this is what Republicans think" And I don' t think that's fair.

This is an opportunity for the other candidates (and the GOP writ large) to make a stand and start to take the public perception of the party back from Trump. And to show that they are not afraid to do it.

It's absolutely fair if the GOP write large (as you say) continues to not challenge Trump on it.

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Trump has to be a Democrat plant.

The Democrats are in no way organized enough to do this. Otherwise it's a good theory.

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

He's shown an incredible knack for saying exactly the right thing over & over ... which is why I expect him to suddenly step on a third rail any second now.

He's stepped on plenty of third rails with absolutely no harm. It's as if his campaign simply does not adhere to the laws of physics. At this point we've got to start thinking of potential "4th rails" he could conceivably step on.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I'm on the record as saying that all flavors of pop tarts are gross.

Give that man a cigar. Haven't had a Pop Tart in probably 2 decades or more. Pop Tarts aren't actually food, people!

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Don't you find it troubling that the Democrats are all about limiting Pop-Tart flavors to Quinoa, Non-Gluten and Pumice this season?

There is universal truth in this discussion.

well played sir. And yes very troubling

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Dutch

Chocolate Fudge, that's non-negotiable.

This is the first thing Dutch has said in this thread that I've agreed with.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Don't you find it troubling that the Democrats are all about limiting Pop-Tart flavors to Quinoa, Non-Gluten and Pumice this season?

There is universal truth in this discussion.

Are Democrats on average healthier than Republicans? Republicans probably have better healthcare, but might eat worse in general.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JeeberD

This is the first thing Dutch has said in this thread that I've agreed with.

You and stevew are showing incredible bravado to stand with me on the issue of Chocolate Fudge pop-tarts.

[cartman]

DEATH TO THE POP-TARTS INFIDELS. TOASTER STRUDELS ARE THE ONE TRUE WAY TO BREAKFAST ENLIGHTENMENT

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by cartman

DEATH TO THE POP-TARTS INFIDELS. TOASTER STRUDELS ARE THE ONE TRUE WAY TO BREAKFAST ENLIGHTENMENT

Friggin health-nuts...do not let this man own a firearm!

[cartman]

[Castlerock]

My theory on Trump:
He is not and never was actually interested in being President. He is an attention whore. He will say increasingly outrageous things until... I don't know when.

[bhlloy]

I'm actually wondering if Trump wants to back off his pledge and run as an independent and is saying whatever he can to get the RNC to drop him.

[Dutch]

Crap, he owns the 24-7 news cycle....isn't there a single reporter out there can ask the question? You know he'll give an answer.

[QuikSand]

Given the kind of motives that he seems to have, what outcome from here is actually bad for Trump?

If things follow the conventional path that many of us see coming...then he retains a real following of 20-35% of GOP faithful but that's mainly it, and in time the party realists start to coalesce around a more conventional candidate, and he ends up losing out in the long game.

What does he come away with? More speaking points. "I was the only one telling the truth, and I was winning until the fat cats pushed me aside!" He'll cry foul, shit on the press, attack the establishment, and come away with... well, I don't know what he actually would want to walk away with, but it's not like he'd be the type to simply slink off and say "well, the people have spoken and I'm just not the type of leader they wanted."

Whether he runs third party (which I doubt) is intriguing, but there's just so much here to fuel that ego that I see him as a winner from this foray almost no matter what happens from here on. The "over" has already paid off handsomely.

[stevew]

2 pop tarts for around a dollar to a dollar and a quarter is probably the best pound for pound convenience store snack. I also like S'mores and Hot Fudge Sunday is good as well. I do like brown sugar cinnamon but not enough to buy. Perhaps my experience with all the fruit flavors was shaped by the nasty non frosted strawberry ones in my youth.

Most of the time I go cold, but I do like 3secs in the microwave on occassion. Never toasted.

[flere-imsaho]

Perot's supporters got him on the ballot in 50 states mostly through their own work. I can definitely see Trump running third party if he has a similar number of organized and fanatical supporters who do the same.

If it happens, why wouldn't he run 3rd party?

[Thomkal]

Joe Scarborough got so sick of Trump's act on Morning Joe that he cut him off and went to commercial.

[flere-imsaho]

I think Fiorina might be done, you guys:



This was her town hall in Iowa yesterday.

[digamma]

Originally Posted by cartman

DEATH TO THE POP-TARTS INFIDELS. TOASTER STRUDELS ARE THE ONE TRUE WAY TO BREAKFAST ENLIGHTENMENT

Fire yourself.

[molson]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Can't he win? What can he say at this point that will lose support? What gaffe can he make that is traditionally worse than "kill muslim non-combatants and deny them all entry to the US?"

This Will Be The End Of Trump's Campaign, Says Increasingly Nervous Man For Seventh Time This Year - The Onion - America's Finest News Source

[flere-imsaho]

This is a fun page: RealClearPolitics - Iowa Republican Caucus - Comparing 2016 vs. 2012 vs. 2008

On this date in 2011 Cain led the field with 25%, with Romney second on 20%. Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann and Perry all were around 7-10%, or so.

On this date in 2007 Romney led the field with 29%, with eventual winner McCain on 7.8%, still in the slide from when he was in the thick of the lead that summer. Huckabee was at 15, Giuliani at 13 and Thompson (RIP) at all.

Two things strike me:

1. More and more candidates at this stage every year.

2. For both races there was always an "establishment" candidate within striking distance of the nomination. Rubio is closest right now at 13.7%, but do we really expect him to pick up supporters from Trump, Cruz & Carson (those who are ahead of them), should they even drop out?

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

On this date in 2011 Cain led the field with 25%,

ahh brings back some good memories.

[lighthousekeeper]

it is interesting to compare polling results with gambling oddmakers:

oddsmakers


when comparing the two, the oddsmakers seem more accurate, because they are factoring a lot more than just polls. probably taking into consideration the fact that polling/media props up unrealistic but entertaining candidates early in the process, and that when the dust settles a more ...electable candidate will emerge.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

This is a fun page:

Two things strike me:

1. More and more candidates at this stage every year.

2. For both races there was always an "establishment" candidate within striking distance of the nomination. Rubio is closest right now at 13.7%, but do we really expect him to pick up supporters from Trump, Cruz & Carson (those who are ahead of them), should they even drop out?

The interesting thing to me here is the difference (which I caught when you typed out the 2008 numbers)

In 2008 you had 5 candidates at 7% or better
In 2012 you had 6 at the same level.

Right now there's only 4, and 3 of those are not "establishment candidates"

So yes, there's more candidates still not yet withdrawn this year but there's actually fewer with any sort of support.

[flere-imsaho]

Jon - excellent catch. I knew there was something about the numbers I was missing, and you've hit on it exactly.

[Solecismic]

CNN/WMUR has a new New Hampshire poll out in the last hour, with 402 Republican likely voters.

Trump 32, Rubio 14, Christie 9, Bush 8, Kasich 7, Cruz 6, Carson 5, Fiorina 5, Paul 2, Graham 1, Huckabee 1, Gilmore 0+, Santorum 0+.

This shows a consistent shift off of the non-establishment candidates. Fairly consistently now, the three with no elected experience are in the 40s rather than the mid-50s.

But there's no agreement on the masses. Christie is somewhat local to them and has focused on New Hampshire. It's paying off for him. He's still a long shot, but he's not out of it because of the momentum a good showing in New Hampshire would create.

Right-wing candidates like Cruz and Huckabee always fare badly in New Hampshire. So 6% is pretty good for Cruz, as long as he wins Iowa.

What struck me about this poll is this - which one issue is most important to your vote?

In June, 44% said jobs/economy and 19% said foreign policy/national security. And in this poll, it was reversed at 18%/50%. Immigration has gone from 7% to 12%, but was at 14% in September.

So this change is primarily about ISIS. Trump does well on the ISIS question (33% said he's best on that issue - Bush is second at 11%). But he "shines" on the immigration question (45% to Rubio's 14%).

Trump rallies his base with fear. He's confident in the face of terror and illegal immigrants, and that speaks to people who don't really seem to care why Trump is confident. That's why he's taking this stance. It's a bit depressing.

I'll just repeat that his ceiling is lower. Maybe the one big mistake many made when this started was assuming the anti-Bush thing would go away and he would win less conservative states like New Hampshire easily. But it hasn't - his negatives are still sky-high in New Hampshire.

So there's a void that no one has filled. People looked at Fiorina and didn't really like her once she got their attention. People looked at Carson and he self-destructed under the pressure, I think. So they're uncertain, and Trump has name recognition and appeals to fear. Not a great combination, but I'm still confident that Trump won't win this.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

It's absolutely fair if the GOP writ large (as you say) continues to not challenge Trump on it.

He's stepped on plenty of third rails with absolutely no harm. It's as if his campaign simply does not adhere to the laws of physics. At this point we've got to start thinking of potential "4th rails" he could conceivably step on.

GOP Leaders Denounce Trump's Plan as Anti-American - NBC News

I do wish it had been Marco Rubio instead of Lindsey Graham calling Trump a "xenophobic, race baiting, religious bigot", but I'd say he crossed that 3rd rail with GOP politicians. The problem is that there is a portion of people in this country who are racist bigots, and if Donald Trump gives them the courage to out themselves for their retrograde views so we can properly shun them until they come join us in the 21st century maybe it'll be a good thing in the long run. The real short-term question though is just how many people really feel that way - is it a very vocal 5-10%, or is it actually up in the 25% range?

[cuervo72]

It's interesting, their nightly news made it out to sound like Cruz didn't really denounce Trump, and that Preibus gave a statement but declined to do so on camera. I wonder to what extent the former might have done so to later court Trump's voters, and the latter to not alienate them from the party.

Is Donald Trump Playing on Voters' Fears With Muslim Ban Comments? - NBC News

eta: actually, they show a clip of Cruz commending Trump. Wonder if that was the true sentiment or if there was some convenient editing there.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I think the GOP has two choices at this point: embrace Trump and let him win/lose the primary on his own merits OR attack him & pretty much ensure that a very significant portion of their core voters won't be showing up in November.

His latest shot is simply a fairly lightweight version of what a lot of us have said and/or believed for more than a decade. If that's a problem for the party then the party can go hang, right along with the useful idiot do-nothing candidates they sometimes roll out.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I think the GOP has two choices at this point: embrace Trump and let him win/lose the primary on his own merits OR attack him & pretty much ensure that a very significant portion of their core voters won't be showing up in November.

I haven't seen any new polls since Trump's statement, but my sense is that very few of his supporters are going to abandon him over this. Meanwhile, from Cheney to Ryan to Graham, Republicans (other than Cruz) are falling all over themselves to condemn not just Trump's "plan" but Trump himself, and in some very harsh words. People keep bringing up leaders in past years and how early it is, but the more I think about it, the less I think that we can effectively compare this to previous elections. People abandoned their candidates as they made gaffes or didn't inspire, but they had alternatives. It was a small step for a Cain supporter to turn to Santorum, not a giant step for a Santorum supporter to flip to Gingrich, and then from Gingrich to "anything but Obama again!! Fine, I'll vote for Romney." Trump has continued to set himself us as monumentally different from every other GOP candidate. I'm very curious to see the next round of polls after this statement. I find it very hard to believe that anyone who doesn't abandon Trump over this is going to abandon him over something else.

Side note: what on earth does "until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on" even mean?

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Side note: what on earth does "until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on" even mean?

He has said nearly nothing this entire campaign. It's all be rhetoric and off the cuff emotion designed to sway. It's not entirely different than a fanatical preacher winding up the church each week, by only really saying the same stuff over and over again. It's still power though, no matter how you cut it. That's what makes it dangerous.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

GOP Leaders Denounce Trump's Plan as Anti-American - NBC News

I do wish it had been Marco Rubio instead of Lindsey Graham calling Trump a "xenophobic, race baiting, religious bigot"

Rubio on Trump:

Originally Posted by Marco Rubio

I disagree with Donald Trump's latest proposal. His habit of making offensive and outlandish statements will not bring Americans together.

Rubio on Obama (2 days earlier):

Originally Posted by Marco Rubio

"And then the cynicism, the cynicism tonight to spend a significant amount of time talking about discrimination against Muslims," Rubio attacked.

"Where is there widespread evidence that we have a problem in America with discrimination against Muslims?" an incredulous Rubio asked.

"And the refusal to call this what it is, a war on radical Islam," Rubio said. "Very disappointing tonight. I think not only did the president not make things better tonight, I fear he may have made things worse in the minds of many Americans."

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I think the GOP has two choices at this point: embrace Trump and let him win/lose the primary on his own merits OR attack him & pretty much ensure that a very significant portion of their core voters won't be showing up in November.

I've been saying this for a while, and it's increasingly the case. At this point, unless he polls single digits in Iowa & New Hampshire, it's hard to see how the GOP exclude his influence from the convention/general election (assuming he doesn't win the nomination) without publicly repudiating him and losing that group of supporters.

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

People keep bringing up leaders in past years and how early it is, but the more I think about it, the less I think that we can effectively compare this to previous elections. People abandoned their candidates as they made gaffes or didn't inspire, but they had alternatives. It was a small step for a Cain supporter to turn to Santorum, not a giant step for a Santorum supporter to flip to Gingrich, and then from Gingrich to "anything but Obama again!! Fine, I'll vote for Romney." Trump has continued to set himself us as monumentally different from every other GOP candidate. I'm very curious to see the next round of polls after this statement. I find it very hard to believe that anyone who doesn't abandon Trump over this is going to abandon him over something else.

This is a great point, and keeps striking me when I look at the graphs of the nominations for 2012 and 2008.

[Thomkal]

Looks like the media is really done with Trump:

Daily News cover cartoon shows Trump beheading Statue of Liberty - CBS News

[JPhillips]

Trump's merely a reflection of the white nationalist sentiment in the GOP.

Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump’s recent proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the U.S. has far from hurt his poll numbers; in fact, a poll released Wednesday found that almost two-thirds of GOP primary voters back the widely-condemned plan.

In a new Bloomberg Politics/Purple Strategies poll, 37 percent of all likely general election voters said they support Trump’s plan while 65 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they back the ban.