The Stock Market thread

[Edward64]

To me, Trump's market performance was solid overall. I'm still amazed the markets didn't crash more/longer than it did during his bumbling of Coronavirus. Biden's market performance life-to-date has been atrocious.

But other than for markets, I'll take Biden anyday over Trump.

[Edward64]

I read somewhere that Truss is in big trouble and may not last much longer. I don't know how she overestimated the support for her policies.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/17/uks-...sets-out-.html

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt used his first Monday on the job to announce that almost all of the controversial tax measures announced by his predecessor would be reversed.

The major U-turn includes scrapping the cut in the lowest rate of income tax from 20% to 19%, as well as cuts to dividend tax rates, the reversal of off-payroll working reforms, VAT claim-backs for tourists and the freeze on alcohol duty rates.

Hunt said the reversed tax cuts totalled £32 billion a year.

The only fiscal policies of previous Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng to remain are the cancellation of the planned rise in National Insurance, a general taxation, by 1.25%; and a cut in taxes paid on property purchases.

The government had already been forced to U-turn on both its plan to scrap the top rate of income tax and ditch a planned rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25%.

[Hammer]

Having to pay corporation tax for my company in the UK you would think this hurts, but it hardly effects me. There are still sneaky ways to bypass this tax. Any profits you put in to a pension are not taxable. So I am all over that. Doesn't seem right somehow. The GBP is now 1.14 against the dollar from 1.03. Which sucks for me with most of my investments denominated in the dollar. But the rallying of the markets softens the blow.

I am not emotionally invested in UK politics. But Jeremy Hunt seems to giving us the bad news we need. While Truss seems out of her depth. She basically gave all her supporters the high powered jobs. Many seem unqualified. However with Hunt bossing the financial aspects it seems we are in safer hands economically.

[Edward64]

Nice day! And futures are solidly in the black.

I'm calling it. We've hit bottom (for like the 2nd or 3rd time this year).

[Lathum]

Migrant caravan incoming in 5...4..3..2..

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Nice day! And futures are solidly in the black.

I'm calling it. We've hit bottom (for like the 2nd or 3rd time this year).

I hope you're right!

[Edward64]

Market futures very strongly up, led by Nasdaq with 2+%.

Don't see much news to justify that? Goldman announced better than expected revenue & profits (still shitty though). Microsoft confirming layoffs (yeah, let's get the unemployment rate up!), more predictions on recession next year. But Oct is earnings season so we'll see ...

[Edward64]

Nice day today, fell off a little in the afternoon but not going complain.

Netflix had good results. Nasdaq futures up +1.4%. Tesla earnings tomorrow, so could be good or bad. Next week are big tech stocks like Apple & Microsoft.

[Edward64]

Nice!

Dow climbs more than 700 points on Friday as Wall Street clinches its best week since June

Friday’s moves extended the market’s gains for the week. The S&P 500 and Dow gained 4.7% and 4.9%, respectively, while the Nasdaq rose 5.2%. It was the best week since June for all three major averages.

[Edward64]

Markets are doing well this week.

Microsoft and Alphabet better not disappoint after the bell today. Apple really better not disappoint on Thu (although there are indications of reduced sales on latest iPhones).

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Markets are doing well this week.

Microsoft and Alphabet better not disappoint after the bell today. Apple really better not disappoint on Thu (although there are indications of reduced sales on latest iPhones).

Damn Microsoft & Alphabet. It'll be rocky tomorrow.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Damn Microsoft & Alphabet. It'll be rocky tomorrow.

So far so good, except for NASDAQ but even that has been improving throughout the morning.

[Edward64]

Down, Up and back to Down. Not as crazy of a day as many in the past 2-3 months. And it could be worse than Nasdaq (currently) at -1.66% with the really bad Google miss.

I'm feeling pessimistic and think Thu will not be that great for Apple.

[Edward64]

Meta/FB sucked today also.

Unlike Google, Meta hasn't been successful in innovating recently. Their moonshot was the Metaverse and that doesn't seem to be paying off (yet).

Futures are about .40+% so that's good. But think Apple is the bellwether tech stock and much will depend on what they report on Thu.

[NobodyHere]

So we're officially not in a recession right?

GDP grows 2.6% in the third quarter --- but recession worries aren't going away - MarketWatch

[Ksyrup]

I'm on my phone so I can't post an embedded tweet, but there's an interesting post or two showing how we've basically recovered to the trend line from the CBO's pre-pandemic real GDP projections in January 2020, and contrasting that with 2008.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So we're officially not in a recession right?

GDP grows 2.6% in the third quarter --- but recession worries aren't going away - MarketWatch

Don't have a subscription (and used up my freebies already). But from what I googled ...

The end of a recession is marked by the point where the economy starts to grow again, not by a return to an economy's original position

CNBC said below. I'd like to know how much of this was attributed to the "narrowing trade deficit".

The growth came in large part due to a narrowing trade deficit, which economists expected and consider to be a one-off occurrence that won’t be repeated in future quarters. GDP gains also came from increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment and government spending.

Declines in residential fixed investment and private inventories offset the gains, the BEA said.

“Overall, while the 2.6% rebound in the third quarter more than reversed the decline in the first half of the year, we don’t expect this strength to be sustained,” wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. “Exports will soon fade and domestic demand is getting crushed under the weight of higher interest rates. We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year.”

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Meta/FB sucked today also.

Unlike Google, Meta hasn't been successful in innovating recently. Their moonshot was the Metaverse and that doesn't seem to be paying off (yet).
.

Wow.

Looked it up and Zuckerberg owns about 13% of Meta. I would not be surprised if he is "promoted out" to some emeritus position.

Shares of Meta plunged 24% Thursday morning as investors and analysts digested the company’s third-quarter earnings miss and a weak fourth-quarter outlook. Shares were trading under $100 at market open, the lowest price since 2016.

I like his Metaverse bet. But it doesn't seem that he's gotten much from his billions of investment so far. Something needs to change there.

Cramer: I was wrong about Meta, never thought it would spend without discipline

[Edward64]

Couldn't help but chuckle.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/26/elon...ars-close.html

With just a few more days left to complete his acquisition of Twitter
and stave off a new court date, billionaire Elon Musk walked into the company’s San Francisco office on Wednesday with what appeared to be a porcelain bathroom sink in his hands.
“Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!” the Tesla
and SpaceX CEO tweeted with a video of his entrance.

I view Twitter like but worse than FB. That's really a one-trick pony. Their platform is very powerful (now) but can and will be superseded by something better. What the hell are they doing with all their money and leverage? I really do hope Elon can innovate and do more.

[Lathum]

If the same goes through and he does what he says he is gonna do, let Trump back, virtually no moderations, etc...the product will be dead within months. There are already rumors he is begging advertisers not to leave. It will turn in to a right wing echo chamber populated by Russian propaganda bots.

[albionmoonlight]

Yup. The idea that we have to let unmoderated Nazis on Twitter because all of the sites with unmoderated Nazis are too small mixes up cause and effect.

If moderation goes away, so do most of the users, and he just paid $40 billion for 8-chan.

I enjoy it, so I hope that it mostly stays the same. But if it does not, then on to next week.

[Ksyrup]

Someone posted his statement to advertisers about not letting the site turn into an unmoderated hellscape, but the definition is in the eye of the beholder, I suppose. He talks a good game about facilitating discussion rather than siloing into separate right-wing/left-wing apps, but (a) that might be BS and (b) even if that's truly the goal, we may already be past the expiration date on that being a reasonable goal.

[Lathum]

You can’t fire 75% of your workforce and effectively moderate a platform with a billion accounts.

[GrantDawg]

I love Twitter. It is right next to Reddit as my favorite social media (I do have a growing TikTok habit). My guess is it will be completely destroyed by Musk. It provides a niche, and making it right-wing Instagram (which is basically Facebook) will fail badly.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[albionmoonlight]

Dear Twitter Advertisers pic.twitter.com/GMwHmInPAS

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 27, 2022

He is the perfect manifestation of "What if a very smart but very naïve 13-year-old was put in charge of very important things?"

[sterlingice]

Is there somewhere I can bet on who will be owner of Twitter in, say, 2030? Because I'd still bet a pretty good amount of money it won't be Musk

SI

[Edward64]

Okay, bad but not quite as bad as I expected with the Google, MS and Meta bad news.

Apple, please don't crash the market tonight/Fri.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Okay, bad but not quite as bad as I expected with the Google, MS and Meta bad news.

Apple, please don't crash the market tonight/Fri.

Okay, let's call it a draw. Amazon sucked also so compared to Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon ... Apple did awright.

Apple reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday that beat Wall Street expectations on revenue and earnings per share.

However, Apple came up short versus revenue expectations in core product categories including the company’s iPhone business and services.

Apple shares rose over 1% in extended trading.

[GrantDawg]

It is official. The CEO and other top Twitter officers have been fired by Musk. The new Twitter has begun.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Congrats Elon, you deserve a shot to make this successful. Don't frak it up.

For $44B, he sure damn well gets to pick.

I suspect it'll be a cluster during the transition. But I'll give him a 2-3 month period to figure things out.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Congrats Elon, you deserve a shot to make this successful. Don't frak it up.

For $44B, he sure damn well gets to pick.

I suspect it'll be a cluster during the transition. But I'll give him a 2-3 month period to figure things out.

He's fucked himself. Let Trump on and he loses advertisers, don't let him on and he loses credibility.

[Lathum]

What does everyone think, does he let Trumo bak on?

[Edward64]

I'm thinking yes.

[kingfc22]

Of course he does

[NobodyHere]

Trump said he wouldn't come back to Twitter, but who knows.

[Ksyrup]

10 days before election day, what a coincidence!

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Trump said he wouldn't come back to Twitter, but who knows.

He's been nothing but truthful in the past. I think I'd just take him at his word.

[Flasch186]

Well you don’t have to know his true intentions just take him at his word until he’s sued to expose his true motivations. That’s the precedent anyways.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kodos]

Luckily I’m not on Twitter.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Looked it up and Zuckerberg owns about 13% of Meta. I would not be surprised if he is "promoted out" to some emeritus position.

He has full control because he has control of special Class B shares, which have 10 times the number of votes as common stock. He's going nowhere.

I like his Metaverse bet. But it doesn't seem that he's gotten much from his billions of investment so far. Something needs to change there.

Or, we could recognize that he's a mediocre coder who won the lottery of being in the right place at the right time (almost literally one in a billion) and doesn't have the skills or experience to evolve Meta to commercial success.

[Edward64]

Whew, no negative surprise.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/28/pce-...ber-2022-.html

An economic gauge that the Federal Reserve follows closely showed that inflation stayed strong in September but mostly within expectations, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.

Bring it on, think the .75 is already baked in (I hope) and can't get it done soon enough. Let's get the .75 hikes over with and start slowing it down.

Markets widely expect the Fed to enact its fourth straight 0.75 percentage point increase at the meeting (next week), but possibly slow down the pace of hikes after that.
:
Markets think the Fed might downshift the pace of its rate hikes ahead. Futures pricing Friday morning indicated a nearly 60% chance that the central bank will hike rates 0.5 percentage point in December.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Okay, bad but not quite as bad as I expected with the Google, MS and Meta bad news.

Apple, please don't crash the market tonight/Fri.

Apple up +7.43% right now.

You go girl, you show the other mega tech companies who the real boss is.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Congrats Elon, you deserve a shot to make this successful. Don't frak it up.

For $44B, he sure damn well gets to pick.

I suspect it'll be a cluster during the transition. But I'll give him a 2-3 month period to figure things out.

A lot of the outrage over free speech on Twitter has mostly been assholes complaining that they couldn't be their worst assholey selves without consequence.

This is new Twitter. pic.twitter.com/LRKnttRMZ1

— BrooklynDad_Defiant!☮️ (@mmpadellan) October 28, 2022

[Edward64]

I'm also guessing it'll be a long, torturous legal fight before the $200M is paid.

Elon Musk on the hook to pay more than $200 million to 3 fired Twitter execs

[whomario]

It won't even matter what Musk's (or his cronies) policies are. The event of the takeover and the perceived changes combined with the real logistical changes is enough. It's simple math: Add a ton of new users of certain persuasions (lots of big account on sites and services from telegram to 4chan are calling for their followers/fans to come (back) over), add a lot of people in general now way more emboldened to act like complete assholes in more aggressive ways, subtract a lot of people who were so far willing to put up with certain shit as long as their was at least some sort of moderation and then subtract a lot of ressources to moderate whatever the policy ends up being. Do the math.

Originally Posted by Lathum

A lot of the outrage over free speech on Twitter has mostly been assholes complaining that they couldn't be their worst assholey selves without consequence.

This is new Twitter. pic.twitter.com/LRKnttRMZ1

— BrooklynDad_Defiant!☮️ (@mmpadellan) October 28, 2022

Just look for Quote Tweets of recent Musk tweets like the "the bird is free" one. Or stuff like this:



But wait ... what's this?



And hey, look, the Hitler loving former rap artist is already back once more.

[Edward64]

It really doesn't feel like this is the 4th straight winning week. The last sentence also surprised me. Com'on Christmas rally!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/stoc...lose-news.html

Dow rallies 700 points on Friday, heads for fourth-straight winning week

The major indexes are all on track to end the week higher. It would be its fourth positive week in a row for the Dow, which is up about 5%, for the first time since a 5-week streak ending in November 2021. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up about 2% and 1.5%, respectively, this week.

The Dow is on track for its largest monthly percentage gain since January 1987.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

It really doesn't feel like this is the 4th straight winning week. The last sentence also surprised me. Com'on Christmas rally!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/stoc...lose-news.html

You don't feel like it because of where the growth is? What sector is driving the growth?

[Edward64]

That's probably it. The quote referred to Dow. I'm overweight on Tech/Nasdaq and that's probably why it doesn't feel that way to me.

[Edward64]

Yup. That is definitely it. Dow was the big winner.

Markets made a huge comeback in October. The Dow guided those gains, soaring 13.95% for the month. The 30-stock finished its best month since 1976 as investors bet on more traditional companies, like banks, to lead the next bull. The S&P and Nasdaq gained about 8% and 3.9%, respectively, for October.

[Edward64]

A good read on the Twitter buyout.

I wonder if there was any consideration for letting Musk walk away with like a substantial breakup fee. Would that have been better than forcing Musk to pay $44B, presumably laying off substantial % of employees, and changing the culture etc.?

But the Board's first responsibility is the fiduciary duty of the shareholders and not employees or its subscribers. Twitter was already experiencing weakness so possibly it needs a disruptor to turn things around (or take it further down). This reads something like Time Warner acquisition of AOL, hopefully it'll be more successful.

“Mischief and delay�: How Musk and Twitter finally sealed the deal | Ars Technica

“Musk apparently believes that he—unlike every other party subject to Delaware contract law—is free to change his mind, trash the company, disrupt its operations, destroy stockholder value, and walk away,” Twitter said at the time.

Musk has not explained his abrupt U-turn, but his legal team had gained little traction in pre-trial battles and Delaware courts have historically almost never let buyers with cold feet walk away.

Whatever the final straw, Musk realized that there was minimal chance for him to prevail in court. And by that point, Twitter had no interest in a discounted price, three people said.