The Stock Market thread

[whomario]

Those forcing the sale wanted to get paid, Musk wants to shift the discourse. It being "more successfull" will mean Musk succeeding in moving discourse and an audience embracing it.

Just reinstated the Demon Sperm Lady and restricted access to content moderation tools for hundreds of employees just before midterms. Musk personally out there acting like the extreme rights personal grievance manager. Is purposefully alienating verified accounts big and small with paid 'verification' that will mean a clear shift again to the right on that front as those will happily go along with the grift.

This being "successfull" goes hand in hand with a morally despicable direction of running a business and enacting a model of what is and isn't accepted being widely enough accepted to remain profitable.

[albionmoonlight]

From what I can tell from people who understand this stuff, he signed a binding contract to buy Twitter at that price and as part of the deal, agreed to (I'm simplifying here b/c I don't fully get it) take it "as is."

Then he got cold feet and tried to get out of it and/or reduce the price. But for all of the "OMG, it's Elon!!!" circus around the legal proceedings, apparently the outcome was never really in doubt--it was a simple case of the courts were going to force him to do what he agreed to do at the price he agreed to do it.

So, at some point, he saw the writing on the wall and started acting like he always wanted to own twitter and he's so excited, etc. etc. etc.

[Ksyrup]

I pretty easily gave up FB. Twitter is pretty valuable to me for instant news, sports, entertainment, etc., and is my only real active "social media" account. Is there a viable alternative? I haven't seen a tangibly worse experience (yet), but in case I need an escape pod, I'm not sure what's out there that approximates some sort of FB/Twitter experience. And it feels like anything that gets created now in response to what's happening will either be hella small and/or a left-leaning version of Truth Social/Parler (with, hopefully, 100% less calls for violence).

If things go haywire, where is everyone dispersing to?

[albionmoonlight]

I got an account on counter.social and mastadon.social (Mastadon seems like possibly the more likely to take off of the two).

I have a discord with some Saints fans. I follow some threads on reddit.

And, honestly, this place--long may it remain a community.

But if/when Twitter dies and/or becomes MAGA MySpace, it will diminish my internet experience.

[GrantDawg]

Jack also has a new platform going into beta right now. I just can't think of another social media that hits my niche like Twitter.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Good to hear and hope Powell follows through and it'll be smaller increases in the future. But how do we really, really know that inflation will subside enough for Fed to be comfortable to only go .5 vs another .75 in December? We've been surprised before at how persistent inflation has been.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/fed-...ace-ahead.html

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point Wednesday and then signal that it could reduce the size of its rate hikes starting as soon as December.
:
Gapen said he expects Fed Chair Jerome Powell to indicate during his press briefing that the Fed discussed slowing the pace of rate hikes but did not commit to it. He expects the Fed would then raise interest rates by a half percentage point in December.

[Edward64]

Looks like the markets got what they wanted.

Along with anticipating the rate hike, markets also had been looking for language indicating that this could be the last 0.75-point, or 75 basis point, move.

The new statement hinted at that policy change, saying when determining future hikes, the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

Economists are hoping this is the much talked about “step-down” in policy that could see a rate increase of half a point at the December meeting and then a few smaller hikes in 2023.

This week’s statement also expanded on previous language simply declaring that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.“

But then he had to say. Tough love message

Powell: My main message is Fed has ‘a ways to go’ to get rates up to bring inflation down

EDIT: thanks alot Jerome. Next time, can you please spread out your tough love hints maybe over 2 weeks vs all at once.

[Hammer]

First time Powell admitted he is running out of options. I dont think this meeting was a bearish as it initially appeared. He was trying to talk the markets down IMO. Bitcoin also isn't buying it.

[Edward64]

Welcome to the club UK.

Hope your BoE Jerome equivalent "tempers" his words a little more carefully.

The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by 75 basis points, its largest single hike since 1989, and warned of a prolonged recession as policymakers looked to temper market expectations for further aggressive monetary policy tightening.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Hammer

First time Powell admitted he is running out of options. I dont think this meeting was a bearish as it initially appeared.

I didn't see it live but read about it. Assume you don't mean options to reduce inflation but chance of "soft landing" has narrowed?

Agree that it wasn't that bearish when it started but then Jerome kept on talking. I hate to admit it (because it's causing damage to my portfolio) but I do think Jerome needs to be the parent and be clear.

I didn't much care back in the 80's but I've read that Volcker was steadfast in conquering inflation and kept on raising rates.

How high did Volcker raise rates?

Volcker slammed the brakes on the economy by raising interest rates to 20% — tough medicine to prove he was serious about getting inflation under control. "At some point this dam is going to break and the psychology is going to change,"

So yeah, our bitching and moaning now is nothing compared to the 20% back then.

[Ksyrup]

Barring a major life event, I'm glad I'm locked into a low interest rate mortgage and don't need to buy a car for the foreseeable future. Psychologically, I'm not sure I could deal with knowing how much more interest I'm paying today than I was just a couple of years ago. Which, I assume, is part of the equation for slowing down the economy. But that reality sucks.

[Edward64]

It's starting. There was another article that said 20+% (?).

I've been part of planning for layoffs before. This is pretty damn quick. I think 5% (e.g. it isn't unusual for bottom 5% to be at risk at any given time) is reasonable. 20+%, if true, is extraordinary. But it is his $44B to shape the company in his image, successfully or not.

Elon Musk's Twitter informs staff layoffs are set to begin | CNN Business

Elon Musk will begin laying off Twitter employees on Friday morning, according to a memo sent to staff. The email sent Thursday evening notified employees that they will receive a notice by 12 pm ET Friday that informs them of their employment status.

“If your employment is not impacted, you will receive a notification via your Twitter email,” a copy of the email obtained by CNN said. “If your employment is impacted, you will receive a notification with next steps via your personal email.”

The email added that “to help ensure the safety” of employees and Twitter’s systems, the company’s offices “will be temporarily closed and all badge access will be suspended.”

The email concluded acknowledging that it will be “an incredibly challenging experience to go through” for the workforce.

The memo comes after news reports that Musk had planned to lay off up to half of the company’s staff after acquiring it last week for $44 billion.

Twitter had around 7,500 employees prior to Musk’s takeover.

[Hammer]

Over here the impact for me is certainly different, so perhaps I am out of touch thinking about it. I am hedged somewhat, in that the strong dollar makes me more money when I convert back to pounds. Even our market has very different dynamics. If you look at the FTSE, we get a 0.75% rise the market rallies. The pound is fairly weak and it helps our market due to the foreign companies within it. Also in the UK you can sell at any time without tax implications, don't think you can with a 401k? I avoided a large portion of the drawdown to date through that and the strong dollar hedge. But still down a bit on the likes of Google and Amazon as I wasn't expecting such weakness.

My thought on Powell is that the official statement was dovish. It said a reduction in the strength of rises was quite possibly coming from December. As we covered here previously they simply can't make rises they may wish to.

But the market going up is at odds with the objective. They want people to stop spending. So my belief is he is trying to talk the market down. Despite the reality that most of raises are done with.

The risk I see is these rises typically take time before the impact is felt. So while the economy may seem solid now, in 2023 it could take a downturn. Hopefully by then inflation is heading down, and the FED could then respond. If it isn't then it is a big problem as they can't respond by printing money or lowering rates.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Hammer

The risk I see is these rises typically take time before the impact is felt. So while the economy may seem solid now, in 2023 it could take a downturn. Hopefully by then inflation is heading down, and the FED could then respond. If it isn't then it is a big problem as they can't respond by printing money or lowering rates.

In the US, it's been 6 months or so since Fed started raising rates in earnest. I think the impact is reverberating in the economy now. Markets are definitely trashed but have started hearing more of layoffs and freezes. And past couple weeks of earnings reports were not great.

Inflation in the early 80's reached about 15%. Volcker kept on raising rates until it hit about 20% (and he took a lot of heat for it). I'm thinking the Fed is singularly focused and will continue to raise rates until they see inflation is trending down. Economy & markets are secondary concerns.

Sure as heck hope the next inflation report hints its going down.


EDIT: Oct payroll is 261K, better than expected 205K. "Hiring remains strong"

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

It's starting. There was another article that said 20+% (?).

I've been part of planning for layoffs before. This is pretty damn quick. I think 5% (e.g. it isn't unusual for bottom 5% to be at risk at any given time) is reasonable. 20+%, if true, is extraordinary. But it is his $44B to shape the company in his image, successfully or not.

Elon Musk's Twitter informs staff layoffs are set to begin | CNN Business

I guess I underestimated ...

Twitter layoffs: Elon Musk's Twitter cuts jobs across the company | CNN Business

In a series of tweets Friday evening, Yoel Roth, head of Twitter’s trust and safety team, confirmed overall headcount was cut by roughly 50%. The layoffs eliminated 15% of the company’s trust and safety team, leading to reductions in customer service but little change to content moderation, according to Roth.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Apple up +7.43% right now.

You go girl, you show the other mega tech companies who the real boss is.

Forget it. Apple has given up those gains (and more) in little over a week. Think some of this is because of Foxconn and their issues with lockdowns in China.

On other news, sounds like some big layoffs will happen at Meta/FB. Probably a good move considering how badly their stock has cratered.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I am glad I sold all my SPCE and made a tidy profit, don't think Branson's company is quite all together yet.

Basically, it reads like SPCE is toast.

I invested relatively early. I didn't sell near the high but did make a nice profit.

Virgin Galactic delays development of ship capable of higher flight rate | Ars Technica

Space tourism company Virgin Galactic released its third-quarter financial results on Thursday. As one might imagine of a spaceflight company that has not flown since June 2021, the financials are pretty disastrous. The company reported revenue of less than $1 million against losses of more than $146 million.

In the days after the flight of Sir Richard Branson in June 2021—a master marketer, Branson founded Virgin Galactic in 2004—the publicly traded company's stock price vaulted to $55.91 a share. Before Thursday's financial disclosures, the stock was trading just below $5 a share. Thursday's announcement has not significantly changed that price.

[sterlingice]

I miss the days when Richard Branson was the craziest person realistically trying to get into space

SI

[Edward64]

I've been monitoring market futures.

No big swings, still hovering around +/- .2%. Market is probably still confused on how good/bad the results will be.


EDIT: pretty much the same at 6:30am ET

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

On other news, sounds like some big layoffs will happen at Meta/FB. Probably a good move considering how badly their stock has cratered.

Considering how they've cratered this year, I'm thinking 13% is a little low.

“Today I’m sharing some of the most difficult changes we’ve made in Meta’s history,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote in a blog post to employees. “I’ve decided to reduce the size of our team by about 13% and let more than 11,000 of our talented employees go.”

Did not know they had grown so quickly during the pandemic.

Meta’s headcount in September was nearly twice the 48,268 staffers it had at the start of the pandemic in March of 2020.

[NobodyHere]

Sam Bankman-Fried No Longer a Billionaire After $14.6B Wipe-out: Bloomberg

Imagine having your wealth plummet 94% and you still have nearly a billion dollars.

[Edward64]

Some relief from the CPI front.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/stoc...lose-news.html

Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 844 points, or 2.6%. S&P 500 futures jumped 3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures surged more than 3.7%.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, rose just 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago. That was its lowest annual increase since January. Economists were expecting increases of 0.6% and 7.9%,

Don't know if this will be substantive enough drop/slowdown for Jerome but it's a nice hope (and hopefully fuels a rally until Jerome slaps it down again)

“It just brings up the idea of peak inflation, peak Fed...The Fed will slow and peak rather than continue to aggressively hike at 75 basis point as at a time.”

[NobodyHere]

The SP500 is loving that news, or is it something else. It's up 128.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

The SP500 is loving that news, or is it something else. It's up 128.

It's definitely the CPI news driving it. Assumption is Jerome will slow down pace of rate increase, aka otherwise known as the Fed Pivot.

I love the anticipation but not buying it until the Fed governors show up on CNBC and like, and start giving more corroborating ambiguous hints.

[NobodyHere]

Why can't every day be like this?

I made more money today than what I spent in the entirety of last year (Of course this is more indicative of how little I spend rather than how much I made).

[Edward64]

Futures are positive <.20 but I’m thinking profit taking tomorrow

Good discipline to have for a lean fire. But with a romantic interest, kiss that dream goodbye!

[Edward64]

Nice.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Elon Musk, in his first address to Twitter Inc. employees since purchasing the company for $44 billion, said that bankruptcy was a possibility if it doesn’t start generating more cash, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The warning came amid a tumultuous start to Musk’s reign at the social media company -- a two-week period in which he has fired half of Twitter’s staff, ushered out most of the top executives and ordered the remaining employees to stop working from home. Two executives who until today had emerged as part of Musk’s new leadership team, Yoel Roth and Robin Wheeler, are also on the way out, people familiar with the situation said.

While the buyout has removed Twitter from the scrutiny of public markets, Musk loaded the company with almost $13 billion of debt that’s now in the hands of seven Wall Street banks that have been unable to offload it to investors.

Confidence in the company has eroded so rapidly that, even before Musk’s bankruptcy comments, some funds were offering to buy the loans for as little as 60 cents on the dollar -- a price typically reserved for companies deemed in financial distress, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I love the anticipation but not buying it until the Fed governors show up on CNBC and like, and start giving more corroborating ambiguous hints.

And here are the snippets, quotes from the Fed governors.

There were a couple that said "slower pace" of increases. But rates will continue to increase.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/fed-...icy-ahead.html

[Edward64]

For no particular reason, some key dates ...

Next Fed meeting is Dec 14.

Next CPI report is Dec 13.

Next PCE report is Dec 1 (apparently the Fed likes this one)

Will everyone please stop buying non-essentials until Dec 15.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Nice day! And futures are solidly in the black.

I'm calling it. We've hit bottom (for like the 2nd or 3rd time this year).

Alright. With the past week's performance, somewhat positive news from Bali about talking again with China, Russians on the run, inflation slowing down & some governors actually proposing rate of increases will slow, mid-terms over with etc. I'm really calling the bottom.

Dow futures jump more than 150 points after strong Walmart earnings, inflation data ahead

[Edward64]

More evidence that we (may) have peaked on inflation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/whol...ion-eases.html

Wholesale prices increased less than expected in October, adding to hopes that inflation is on the wane, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.

The produce price index, a measure of the prices that companies get for finished goods in the marketplace, rose 0.2% for the month, against the Dow Jones estimates for a 0.4% increase.

On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 8% compared to an 8.4% increase in September and off the all-time peak of 11.7% hit in March.

[NobodyHere]

The S&P futures are liking this news, it's up 70 right now.

[Ksyrup]

According to Zillow my house has only dropped $733 in the past 30 days. However, anecdotally, the people behind us put their house up for a pretty hefty price about a month ago and have not sold yet. They're selling for more than mine is worth but they've essentially transformed their backyard into an amusement park (in the past 18 months the they added a pool, hot tub, new landscaping, fire pit and redid the deck).

[Kodos]

Make friends with the new neighbors!

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Make friends with the new neighbors!

I have been getting calls from somewhere asking about buying my house for cash. We paid $325k 2 years ago, made renovations and house prices keep rising here, great mortgage rate.

Entertained them on one call and they kept asking what I value the house at. I didn't bite, I'm not setting a price because I don't care if I sell.

Finally got an offer from them for $150k. I literally told them they just wasted 10 minutes of my life and that is a ridiculous fucking offer and to call back when they're serious.

I keep getting calls but they act like I've never spoken with them before.

[Edward64]

I wonder if these Fed Governors/Presidents inform each other on what they will be presenting to the press.

The markets did recover from their lows to a slight loss, so guess that's a good sign.

This is the chart that rattled U.S. financial markets on Thursday - MarketWatch

One chart is all it took to move financial markets on Thursday.

That chart was presented by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard as part of a presentation in Louisville, Ky., and it shows where he sees “the sufficiently restrictive zone” for the central bank’s main policy rate target. Bullard put the zone somewhere between 5% to 7%, up from the current fed-funds rate range of between 3.75% to 4%. That was enough to cause investors to sell off stocks and bonds in tandem, push the dollar higher, and rewire expectations around how high interest rates could go.

As of Thursday, fed-funds futures traders, for example, were nudging up their expectations for a 5%-plus fed-funds rate next year, but not yet pricing in a significant chance of a 6% policy rate.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Isn't it interesting she was found guilty of fraud on investors, but not the charges of fraud on the patients? It is almost as if the laws are written to protect big money and not consumers.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Elizabeth Holmes sentenced to more than 11 years in prison for fraud | CNN Business

[Edward64]

Nice move having a kid and expecting again. I'm glad she got the higher range.

[GrantDawg]

Robert Iger was just rehired as CEO at Walt Disney. There is probably an interesting story of the back door dealings that had that happen.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

From what I hear, it was the abysmal earnings report.

Also, apparently Board reached out to Iger on Fri. TBH, hard for me to believe there weren't unofficial "feelers" going on even before then.

They had extended Chapek's contract in June. I presume this mean Chapek will be laughing all the way to the bank. Big hit to ego but hey, he'll get over it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

They had extended Chapek's contract in June. I presume this mean Chapek will be laughing all the way to the bank. Big hit to ego but hey, he'll get over it.

On the sports side of things, I believe we call that the "Jimbo Fisher".

SI

[Ksyrup]

I saw a funny tweet that the Texas A&M board of regents should have bet $85M on the under this weekend and been done with their problem.

[HomerSimpson98]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

On the sports side of things, I believe we call that the "Jimbo Fisher".

SI

LOL. Bastard

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

For no particular reason, some key dates ...

Next Fed meeting is Dec 14.

Next CPI report is Dec 13.

Next PCE report is Dec 1 (apparently the Fed likes this one)

Will everyone please stop buying non-essentials until Dec 15.

Fed is telling us what to expect in Dec.

Let's hope there are no negative surprises on Dec 1 or Dec 13 reports.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/21/feds...ate-hikes.html

Markets widely expect the Fed in December to approve its seventh rate hike of the year, but this time slowing down to a 0.5 percentage point increase from a string of four straight 0.75 percentage point moves.

“We’re going to have more work to do, because we need to see inflation really on a sustainable downward path back to 2%,” she said in a live “Closing Bell” interview with Sara Eisen. “We’ve had some good news on the inflation front, but we need to see more good news and sustained good news to make sure that we are returning to price stability as soon as we can.”

Mester said she’s on board with the reduced pace.

Multiple other Fed officials in recent days have voiced similar sentiments, essentially that the tempo can be slowed a bit but there’s still a need to continue tightening policy until inflation shows more signs of a letup.

[Edward64]

Hurrah. Somewhat firm, positive hints from the Fed.

Now the markets will soon struggle predicting between .5 and hopes for .25 causing market angst in the next cycle.

Fed offers more rate hike clues | CNN Business

At its November 2 meeting the Fed raised rates by three-quarters of a percentage point — its fourth straight hike of such a large magnitude. But Fed chair Jerome Powell suggested at a press conference that the Fed may soon begin to slow the pace of hikes.

The minutes from that meeting showed that several other Fed policymakers agreed with Powell’s assessment.

“A number of participants observed that, as monetary policy approached a stance that was sufficiently restrictive to achieve the Committee’s goals, it would become appropriate to slow the pace of increase in the target range for the federal funds rate,” the Fed said in the minutes.

The Fed added that “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate.”

Stocks, which were relatively flat and meandering before the minutes came out, popped after their release. The Dow was up nearly 100 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 jumped 0.5% and the Nasdaq rose nearly 1%.

[Edward64]

Selling Disney to Apple would be fascinating experiment. Unfortunately, similar to Time Warner + AOL, I think cultures don't mesh very well and the (presumed) synergies will be challenging. Doesn't seem to be in Apple's sweet spot or area they want to go into (e.g. more futuristic Tech).

FWIW, Disney is capitalized at about $180B. Apple has about $202B cash reserves (Feb 2022) and is capitalized at $2.4T. So I'm sure Apple can certainly afford it if they really wanted to buy Disney.

Why Bob Iger's Ultimate Power Move May Be Selling Disney to Apple

”This is the pinnacle deal for the ultimate dealmaker,“ one studio insider says

Now that Disney CEO Bob Iger has regained the keys to the Magic Kingdom — less than three years after his chosen successor, Bob Chapek, took over — insiders suspect they know how the beloved executive will find a new way to go out on top during his final two-year stint.

“He’s going to sell the company,” one Disney insider who has worked for Iger predicted. “This is the pinnacle deal for the ultimate dealmaker.”

Landing a deal with Apple (or some other megabuyer) would also cement Iger’s legacy. “I think he’d welcome it — he’d be the last CEO of Disney,” a former top Disney executive told TheWrap, noting that the two companies have “similar brand identities” and could benefit from a merger.

Acquisitions are in Iger’s DNA. Under Iger’s leadership, Disney went on a nearly $100 billion shopping spree to buy animation giant Pixar in 2006, superhero juggernaut Marvel in 2009, “Star Wars”-powered Lucasfilm in 2012 and Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox in 2019. But there was one acquisition he’s publicly lamented as a transformational deal that got away — a combination with the tech powerhouse Apple.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Hurrah. Somewhat firm, positive hints from the Fed.

Now the markets will soon struggle predicting between .5 and hopes for .25 causing market angst in the next cycle.

Watching CNBC, I think the narrative angst now is not .5 or .25 but how quickly inflation will get down to the Fed target of around 2%. The guest speaker said it'll be a while

[Edward64]

I didn't find much but glad that Apple did well. Not sure how this may (or not) impact Fed analysis of economy/inflation.

Have to look up what's a Hatchimal and Squishmallow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/25/blac...9-billion.html

The record-breaking spending comes on the heels of a strong day of Thanksgiving shopping, in which consumers shelled out an all-time high $5.29 billion online, up 2.9% year-over-year. Typically, shoppers spend about $2 billion to $3 billion online in a day, according to Adobe.

The company said shoppers were picking up Apple products such as watches and AirPods, smart speakers and televisions, espresso machines, and gaming consoles, as well as toys from Funko, Hatchimals and Squishmallows.

Adobe noted that mobile shopping also hit a record high this year, with sales from smartphones accounting for 55% of online sales on Thanksgiving Day. These sales are expected to account for 53% of total Black Friday sales, the company predicts.

Additionally, strong discounts enticed inflation-weary consumers to put more items in their carts. The average order volume was up 12% during the season. Toys, in particular, drove significant demand, with deals as high as 33% off.

[NobodyHere]

What happened at noonish that made the SP500 take off?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

What happened at noonish that made the SP500 take off?

Jerome