The Biden Presidency - 2020

[miami_fan]

Aren't we supposed to have some sort of alerts where one color means this and another color means that due to the threat to the Capitol?

[BYU 14]

Can't wait to see where QAnon moves the goalposts next....

[molson]

I have a new phone with new notifications that I haven't bothered to shut off yet. I admit my stomach dropped a little just now when I heard one with a pretty dramatic "breaking news" notification sound. It was a, "duh duh duh....duh duh!" Don't worry though, it's just Italy blocking a vaccine shipment to Australia for some reason.

[QuikSand]

you know it's serious if Zeus's Butthole shows up in the thread

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by molson

I have a new phone with new notifications that I haven't bothered to shut off yet. I admit my stomach dropped a little just now when I heard one with a pretty dramatic "breaking news" notification sound. It was a, "duh duh duh....duh duh!" Don't worry though, it's just Italy blocking a vaccine shipment to Australia for some reason.

Siegfried from Siegfried and Roy died on January 13th. And the Washington Post web page gave it red banner breaking news status.

And it just really felt like we kind of all had a lot going on right then and outlets should have been a bit more judicious in the use of the Breaking News banner.

[molson]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Siegfried from Siegfried and Roy died on January 13th. And the Washington Post web page gave it red banner breaking news status.

And it just really felt like we kind of all had a lot going on right then and outlets should have been a bit more judicious in the use of the Breaking News banner.

The last time I heard that dramatic alert sound (I think it was the BBC), it was Kim Kardashian divorcing Kanye.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by molson

The last time I heard that dramatic alert sound (I think it was the BBC), it was Kim Kardashian divorcing Kanye.

[ISiddiqui]

Listen, I don't wish ill or sadness on anyone, but the last time Kanye had a big breakup we got "808s and Heartbreak". So what I'm saying is... I can see an urgent news break for that

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[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Listen, I don't wish ill or sadness on anyone, but the last time Kanye had a big breakup we got "808s and Heartbreak". So what I'm saying is... I can see an urgent news break for that

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But never again will we get this! (NSFW)

https://youtu.be/BBAtAM7vtgc

[miami_fan]

The 628-page relief bill is being read on the Senate floor now

From CNN's Manu Raju, Ali Zaslav and Ted Barrett

GOP Sen. Ron Johnson objected to dispense the reading of the bill, so the legislation is now being read on the floor by the Senate clerk. It's 628 pages long.

Aides have said they expect it to take about 10 hours.

Unity! Bipartisanship!

[NobodyHere]

Well that's better than "But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it"

[miami_fan]

Since when?

[miami_fan]

Since the other thread is nonpolitical,

DeSantis denies influence over Keys vaccine distribution - South Florida Sun-Sentinel

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

The answer is a default by 2050+ when debt-to-GDP is an untenable 200%. The can will continue to be kicked down the road.

Damn, I'm good.

[url="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/3/4/us-debt-projected-to-ballon-to-more-than-double-gdp-by-2051"]

The U.S. federal debt will grow to more than double the size of the economy in three decades, increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis even though dangers appear low in the near term, the Congressional Budget Office said.

Debt will be equivalent to 202% of gross domestic product by 2051 from 102% this year, the nonpartisan arm of the legislature said Thursday in its long-term budget outlook. Its projection for 195% in 2050 was unchanged from the prior report, whose forecasts ran through that year.

[GrantDawg]

McConnell seems to be working with his state legislature to change Senate replacement laws in his state. How should Kentucky lawmakers replace US Senators? | whas11.com
Looks like he might be considering an out after he just got elected.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Damn, I'm good.

Not to brighten your day, but if current trends hold it'll be worse than that. Global oil demand will be far above supply by then, leading to worldwide depression that will drag us down with it. So we default sooner and the consequences are worse. Yay 'Murica!

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Not to brighten your day, but if current trends hold it'll be worse than that. Global oil demand will be far above supply by then, leading to worldwide depression that will drag us down with it. So we default sooner and the consequences are worse. Yay 'Murica!

Which actually would be the argument to spend the money on renewal resources and end dependence on oil totally. Green New Deal FTW!

[JPhillips]

Japan is well over 200% debt to GDP right now and they manage pretty well.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Which actually would be the argument to spend the money on renewal resources and end dependence on oil totally. Green New Deal FTW!

Exactly. The sooner we are off oil, the better.

[JPhillips]

The glee with which Sinema voted against the minimum wage increase is a bad look.

[RainMaker]

Democrats such but also some Republicans like the two Senators from Florida voted against the will of their people.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Which actually would be the argument to spend the money on renewal resources and end dependence on oil totally. Green New Deal FTW!

Eh, not really IMO. Relying 100% on renewables is not viable in the near future. There's a reason why no major nation in the world is close on that score. They are only a partial solution; the only realistic short-term path to cleaner energy is to invest a lot more into nuclear in order to get out of coal, etc.

But also, the US is in a better position with oil than most of the world is. It doesn't matter much if we get off of oil here - which we absolutely should do as soon as we can - while the rest of the world still needs it. We'll still sink with everyone else if that happens.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The glee with which Sinema voted against the minimum wage increase is a bad look.

Just a horrible politician who is toast next election. It's not like she is from a state that is opposed to a higher minimum wage. They overwhelmingly supported raising it and have to I believe $12.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Japan is well over 200% debt to GDP right now and they manage pretty well.

I don't know what the point of unsustainability is, but there is one at some point and obviously the further we get into debt, the more taxes have to go to servicing that debt which means the less that can go to the needs of the people, running the government, etc.

I'm frankly astonished at the number of modern nations who think massive budgetary debt, not just for short-term crises but the long-term, is actually a viable financial approach. It isn't.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I don't know what the point of unsustainability is, but there is one at some point and obviously the further we get into debt, the more taxes have to go to servicing that debt which means the less that can go to the needs of the people, running the government, etc.

I'm frankly astonished at the number of modern nations who think massive budgetary debt, not just for short-term crises but the long-term, is actually a viable financial approach. It isn't.

The rates are so low that we are practically making money each time we borrow. Servicing the debt at our current rates is not a problem.

[Brian Swartz]

Interest rates won't always be low, however. And even when they are, I think $375 billion a year could be better spent than being flushed down the toilet. There's still a point at which it's not a feasible long-term strategy, no matter how low interest rates are.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Interest rates won't always be low, however. And even when they are, I think $375 billion a year could be better spent than being flushed down the toilet. There's still a point at which it's not a feasible long-term strategy, no matter how low interest rates are.

Tax wealthy people at least at the same rate as the middle class and stop wasting a trillion here and there on planes that can't fly in the rain. Problem solved.

[RainMaker]

They should call Manchin's bluff and see if he wants to be the person who keeps $1400 checks out of the hands of his constituents.

Basically Democrats should stop negotiating because they are so bad at it.

[Jas_lov]

They're just watering down the bill for no reason. It won't get a single Republican to vote for it. Leave it to the Democrats to take a bill with 75% approval and make it worse.

[Brian Swartz]

Getting all your members to vote in favor of something, without which it won't pass, is 'for no reason'?

[RainMaker]

Call their bluff and see if they will actually vote against it. Let Manchin explain to his constituents why they aren't getting $1400.

Warnock is the one that got screwed bad. Up for election in a year and just buried him on what he promised.

[ISiddiqui]

Anyways it does appear Manchin was dangerously close on going with the Republicans on unemployment insurance:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...id-plan-473963

Even with pleading from Tester and Sinema he was seen talking with Portman and it took a personal call from Biden and a few concessions to win him over.

Though his playing both sides may have damaged his standing to do so in the future with the Republicans, so perhaps he will be tempered from playing these games going forward.

Remember it isn't just an up or down vote on the bill. The "Vote-a-Rama" is happening and any number of Amendments may be added.

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[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Not to brighten your day, but if current trends hold it'll be worse than that. Global oil demand will be far above supply by then, leading to worldwide depression that will drag us down with it. So we default sooner and the consequences are worse. Yay 'Murica!

We are reducing our reliance on foreign oil. Although we produce a lot of it right now, we need the "heavy crude" from the middle-east. Approx 69% of total use is for "transportation" (I assume this means cars, trucks etc.) and 26% is industrial. With all the recent announcements by car companies, majority of our new cars will be electric/hybrid. So I am optimistic the US won't be needing much of foreign oil 2050.

Re: rest of world and oil demand/supply. Peak oil warnings were everywhere, it never happened because alternative methods were found (e.g. shale boom). I'm not convince that demand will outpace supply TBH as greed will find a way to get/extract more oil.

To me, the key problem is the debt-to-GDP. There is a point where it is unsustainable and credit ratings drop, less people to sell debt to, less to spend domestically etc. And with the emergence of China as an alternative to the US, not good at all. By 2060, census projects growth from 17% to 23% of all Americans will be over 65+. So obviously this will put more pressure on "entitlements".

I'm in favor of reducing military spending and entitlements. But there's no politician brave enough (or probably, can get elected) trying to champion both. The can gets kicked down the road.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Japan is well over 200% debt to GDP right now and they manage pretty well.

I disagree. They have fallen far from their perch back in the 80s. Their ratio is about 240% now.

Approx. a third of our debt is owed to foreign governments. Japan's debt is primarily owned by domestically. Their replacement birth rate is low (and definitely not as accepting of immigrants). They are/going to be in a world of hurt IMO.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

By 2060, census projects growth from 17% to 23% of all Americans will be over 65+. So obviously this will put more pressure on "entitlements".

Open. The. Borders.

Our aging population and reduced birth rate is a huge problem with an easy solution: Open. The. Borders. Let lots and lots of young working age people come in and support me in my old age.

Open. The. Borders.

Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Open. The. Borders.

Our aging population and reduced birth rate is a huge problem with an easy solution: Open. The. Borders. Let lots and lots of young working age people come in and support me in my old age.

Open. The. Borders.

Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration

I agree. I think where some of us disagree here is to whom. I rather give priority preference to the highly educated. This is not to say don't open the borders south of the border (which is the focus of many here). I do think we need to increase guest worker program in addition to punishing the Demand side also.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Re: rest of world and oil demand/supply. Peak oil warnings were everywhere, it never happened because alternative methods were found (e.g. shale boom). I'm not convince that demand will outpace supply TBH as greed will find a way to get/extract more oil.

That's true, but all that really did was kick the can down the road. Think about it logically. Regardless of where you think the end date is, oil is by definition a non-renewable resource. There is a limited amount of it. Shortages and rising prices will eventually push us into doing more offshore drilling etc. that we don't want to do now for environmental reasons, but that again just kicks the can further. Eventually you run out of ways to do that. Proven oil reserves have been on the decline for 15 years. We are consistently finding, I think the number is 10-15% of what we are using as a species, over an extended period. This is not sustainable.

Best estimates I am aware of is that the 'peak oil' crunch is likely to hit in 2030-2035. That's not that far off. We'll then push it further by whatever methods we have available, but there's only so much that can be done.

We are reducing our dependence, but we are decades behind where we'd need to be in order to be even remotely prepared. Same with the open-the-borders idea vis a vis immigration and our aging population. It's way too late to do enough of that to make a significant difference. If we were doing in the 1990s some of these things then yes, we could really move the needle. Now we're just rearranging the deck chairs, as it were. The only options left are dramatic and painful ones.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Same with the open-the-borders idea vis a vis immigration and our aging population. It's way too late to do enough of that to make a significant difference. If we were doing in the 1990s some of these things then yes, we could really move the needle. Now we're just rearranging the deck chairs, as it were. The only options left are dramatic and painful ones.

Googled on stats. There are about 1.1M foreign students which is about 6% of those in higher ed. Agree that in the short term, this won't make a dent in tax base but increasing the # and keeping them in the US (e.g. fast track to green card & citizenship) will definitely help in the long term.

And ... add in other foreigners that already have their degrees (or rich), give them fast track (assuming security concerns are taken care of) and we'll be that much better.

I can understand white Americans that are concerned about losing the American way, identity etc. whatever that means, but we can't discount those feelings. A possible compromise IMO is to continue the ratio, not to suddenly increase minority legal immigration disproportionately.

Bottom line. Per an older article, of those that want to immigrate, the vast, vast majority want to immigrate to the US (sorry Europe & Nordics). This is what I would consider a "strategic competitive advantage" and it's stupid for us to not leverage this somehow.

[albionmoonlight]

New York City has open borders with rural Mississippi. And I don't think that anyone would think that they are culturally identical.

The fear that open borders means cultural destruction is overblown/flat-out-incorrect.

[albionmoonlight]

also, opening the borders could mean less of "those people" choosing to live here.

Back before we tightened the border, we'd get a ton of seasonal workers from Mexico/Central America. They'd come here, harvest crops, make money, go back home, and then come back next harvest season. A lot of them have decided to stay b/c it is now so hard to get back in. A lot of "illegal" people who are living here now would love nothing more than the chance to leave for half the year and just come back to help goose our economy.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

New York City has open borders with rural Mississippi. And I don't think that anyone would think that they are culturally identical.

The fear that open borders means cultural destruction is overblown/flat-out-incorrect.

New York literally wouldn't exist as it does today without the "open borders" of the turn of the 19th and 20th century. Of course that is an argument against in most Red states.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I can understand white Americans that are concerned about losing the American way, identity etc. whatever that means, but we can't discount those feelings. .

What a load of horse shit, the fuck we can't.

These are people who only want white men in power. They want to hold back anyone who is a different color, race, religion, or who doesn't have the same values as them. They disguise it as losing the "American Way" but all they are doing is putting lipstick on a pig.

The last thing we should do is cater to the feelings of white nationalists.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The fear that open borders means cultural destruction is overblown/flat-out-incorrect.

Tell that to the Indians

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Tell that to the Indians

Are we really equating immagration to the genocide of Native Americans? Are we? Because that is really daring, considering the culture that brought on that genocide is the very one the white supremacist are trying to defend with these ridiculous arguments.

[ISiddiqui]

CARES Act passes the Senate, with Amendments, 50-49. Sen Sullivan from Alaska missed the vote (lol). House is expected to approve.

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[Brian Swartz]

Someone going home for a family funeral is an lol? Good to have this issue behind us though, pretty safe assumption it gets signed into law fairly soon.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

CARES Act passes the Senate, with Amendments, 50-49. Sen Sullivan from Alaska missed the vote (lol). House is expected to approve.

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I could look this up, but I figure y'all know--how did the unemployment end up? How did the $1,400 cut off end up? Those were the major bones of contention.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I could look this up, but I figure y'all know--how did the unemployment end up? How did the $1,400 cut off end up? Those were the major bones of contention.

unemployment wound up at an extra $300/month, but extended by a month. I think the $1400 phaseout was at $80k for individual earners and $160k for MFJ.

[albionmoonlight]

House will grumble but accept that.

So, the Dems managed to give Americans 1.9 trillion of relief over 100% GOP objection.

And the takeaway will be Sinema doing that weird dance when she voted against $15 minimum wage and the Dems gave fewer people checks than Trump did.

I support my party on policy. But, man, they cannot get out of their own way when it comes to optics.

[ISiddiqui]

Sinema wants to be the Manchin of the West. Who knows it may play in Arizona? Anyways with 50-50 and Manchin and Sinema wanting press, it didn't end up as bad as I feared.

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