WW Amazing Race - Game Over (Moles Win & Team Reebok Wins) - Page 38

mckerney · 03-04-2011, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Mckerney's day 1 move right before mau reveled as the seer is what got my attention. It would not surprise if that was planned. If I recall correctly, mau was starting to pull away with the votes.

What day one move are you talking about? Prior to moving my vote to MartinD the only move I made was to put the 5th vote on mau, which I thought was going to be the 4th vote on him due to Chief Rum and I posting votes at the same time. Also, my vote was 4 hours before mauboy dropped his, "It only I could see the future," line I'm curious how you consider that, "right before," and how that draws much attention from you.

GoldenEagle · 03-04-2011, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney

What day one move are you talking about? Prior to moving my vote to MartinD the only move I made was to put the 5th vote on mau, which I thought was going to be the 4th vote on him due to Chief Rum and I posting votes at the same time. Also, my vote was 4 hours before mauboy dropped his, "It only I could see the future," line I'm curious how you consider that, "right before," and how that draws much attention from you.

I am sure it was pre-mediated and conditional. Mau said something to the effect of if I am still leading, I will claim to be the seer. Make sure to put your votes on me so that you can have a decent spot to hide on.

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I wanted to note the wolf kills so far.

Night 1 - no kill (possible condition for day kill?)
Night 2 - CrimsonFox (seer hunting?)
Night 3 - Darth Vilus (seer found)
Day 4 - Lathum (bodyguard removed)
Night 4 - Saldana (delivered wolf, clearly trusted)
Night 5 - bhlloy (1 of 2 scanned by seer)
Night 6 - Autumn (villager with good thread actions)

Anyone else see something that doesn't quite add up with the Night 6 kill, based on the other kills?

What you mean that Autumn was still an unknown but GOlden Eagle was a SCAN! Yes I noticed that and you can add that to the five other reasons to still suspect him.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 04:36 PM

I tend to agree with what Danny posted - lynching GE today isn't the right move even if it sure feels like he is a wolf.

One thing that struck me on a re-read of yesterday was the lack of conversation between Chief Rum and JAG, even though it appears they were in the thread at the same time. When I'm a wolf, that is something I try to avoid doing ... forgetting to talk to my fellow wolves in thread, since I would presumably be interacting with them as a villager (don't know anyone's allegiance).

That, coupled with some of the other concerns re: Chief in terms of voting record has me putting him considerably lower than what I've heard from the group so far.

He has been a very good race teammate, but that doesn't matter to me all that much when it comes to his villager/wolf possibilities.

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 04:42 PM

Remember yesterday when I said I came to the conclusion to vote for people that were quiet until you tell them they are quiet and then they talk? Well I was speaking of GE as well. Was quiet until I pointed out he was quiet, then he was all chatters (both ingame and privately). And the spidey sense about him has never stopped tingling. Granted he does eat a lot. That's the only thing going for him. BUt his voting and answers regarding why he votes them seem textbook wolf answer 101.

And today I have my doubts that Pass is a wolf. I think Chief Rum is a wolf, except that I looked back at day 1/2 and Chief's voting record is good there. BUT on day one anything can happen and he knows that. It is very easy to throw a vote on a wolf that does not stick.

The other is cougarfreak. Can't figure him out and had my suspicions.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Danny, if you're still reading, what's your take on Pass?

I asked this question almost at same time as JAG did ... it is a point yesterday when the vote was 1-1 between NTN and Pass.

Just looking for stuff that suggests where JAG was at in relation to Chief Rum and Pass specifically.

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 04:49 PM

But hoops, when you bring someone up in conversation, you are basically saying "Vote for that person". I think that clears pass more than implicates him.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Not much choice, but at least it's someone I haven't felt that sure of.

Vote mckerney

And this was a chance for JAG to vote for Pass but instead he put the vote on mckerney.

Vote at the time was 3-2-2-1 with mckerney leading JAG/Pass and NTN trailing.

If he had voted Pass, he would have created a two way tie in front of him, but Pass had not yet voted so maybe he feared that he didn't have the horses to help him escape and wanted to try to push the leader further ahead. Chief wasn't around last night as the deadline approached, for what it is worth. I remember lamenting that as we saw the deadline approaching and it looked like JAG might get off the hook.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

But hoops, when you bring someone up in conversation, you are basically saying "Vote for that person". I think that clears pass more than implicates him.

Agreed - that is how I read it in a vacuum as well. But I'm trying to find all the tangible stuff from JAG and post it for others to review as well.

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

And this was a chance for JAG to vote for Pass but instead he put the vote on mckerney.

Vote at the time was 3-2-2-1 with mckerney leading JAG/Pass and NTN trailing.

If he had voted Pass, he would have created a two way tie in front of him, but Pass had not yet voted so maybe he feared that he didn't have the horses to help him escape and wanted to try to push the leader further ahead. Chief wasn't around last night as the deadline approached, for what it is worth. I remember lamenting that as we saw the deadline approaching and it looked like JAG might get off the hook.

I'm not even sure why ntn is a suspect anymore. Last night, if ntn didn't switch this game would be over.

I think anyone who looks at ntn now is undoubtedly a wolf.

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 04:57 PM

Then again, The Jackal is online now. He's probably still a wolf somehow. LIke WOlf Ghost or something.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't mind sharing so long as my partner doesn't mind, I don't think the info will be all that earth-shattering though. Other than him being alive so late in the game and a D5 vote on Danny that at least three villagers participated in (I think I forgot to factor this in my post above as a negative FWIW), I'm not sure what evidence you're seeing that makes CR a good candidate for today though.

Another comment yesterday related to CR. Again, these are relatively small things I've been finding and I'm hoping others can provide their feedback (trend or random?) on the stuff I'm pulling.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

I won't argue the ntn thing as I put him up high in trust, but I'm taking up for mckerney, who I put 6th out of 9 players? That's misrepresenting what I posted. As for ntn, I've laid out my reasoning why I think he's ok, meanwhile you've voted him 3 of 5 days and I still don't understand what your case is against him. Can you please enlighten me?

Here is JAG replying to GoldenEagle, who suggested JAG was covering for mckerney and NTN.

Not a full-blown reason not to vote for GE here, but a small notch in his favor in my mind.

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 05:15 PM

Well, I have already stated that yesterday's vote did me no good as a villager. I said I actually looked worse than the other two mckerney voters we were looking at this morning (GE & ntn).

As you surmised hoops, I wasn't around at deadline. I actually left shortly after placing my vote, and wasn't able to check in until well after the deadline.

So I don't mind the pressure; I understand it. But fact of the matter is, I'm a villager. Lynching me does no good.

Can someone explain to me why it's a bad idea to lynch the cunning? I'm not getting the reasoning for that. If we think we have a wolf, let's lynch him and be done with it. I at least can understand the village avoiding the brutal, since you don't want to do the 2-for-1 tradeoff that happens with a brutla wolf lynch.

To both of you, CF and hoops, I do recommend you look at Day One. CF, you say it's easy to make a good Day One vote, because it's Day One, but I did some things there that shouldn't just be ignored. My first mau vote came in a surprise block of votes for him. When I saw what happened, I immediately unvoted him to consider that run. That actually puts a spotlight on me (and it has indeed, with how it has been questioned). A wolf doesn't make that move.

A wolf also doesn't jump around as much as I did on Day One, at least not a smart one. Standout Day One votes and moving around a lot are bad ideas for a wolf trying to hide amongst the crowd.

Finally, and hoops, you yourself noted this in your vote rundown of that day, when mau vsersus ntn was coming to a head and they were even, I was on ntn and switched to mau. If ntn is a villager--a cause I have been championing most of the game now and which seems to finally be accepted by most--then I just switched off of ntn, on whom I had a perfectly defensible Day One vote, to move mau up above him.

All that said, I am well aware my voting record is a mixed bag.

As for talking with JAG, hoops, that's a bit of a reach, although I see what you're saying. I didn't see what you guys did on JAG. He was making logically sound arguments and didn't come off wolfish to me. He didn't have good clearing vote or anything, but he also didn't have a really bad one. I didn't really feel like there was anything I needed to sya to him at that point.

I talk much more to people who disagree with me in WW games than I do to ones who agree with me.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JAG

Alright, I have some time before work and then my time the rest of the day will be on and off. I understand I'll be under the microscope today, so I'm going to put out all my thoughts on the people left for the sake of transparency so people know where I stand on things. I am going to assume there are three wolves left worst-case scenario and so we're at 7-3, which means we can only afford one more bad lynch barring some unforeseen mechanic. Based on where I have people trusted (CR+ntn much higher than hoops+Pass), I am going to assume we had three villagers on the block D4 but possibly not D5. So taking a look at those left, most to least trusted:

CR: Odd voting on D1, bad vote on Danny D5 (I know, those in glass houses...), but his reasoning on ntn yesterday was sound and mau put vote #2 on him D1. That just seems way out there for a wolf on wolf move.

ntn: D1 his vote switch from CR (who I feel pretty sure about as good) to mau looks very good, and had a D5 vote on Pass. He's been quiet but what else is new? I can't see why I'd vote for him.

PF: Vote #1 on mau D1, again that seems pretty out there for a wolf on wolf move, had a vote on hoops D5. Otherwise has been quiet, but little reason to suspect him.

cougarfreak: Had a big vote on mau D1 and voted for Pass D5. Like PF, he's been pretty quiet and at this point I don't see myself looking here.

GE: His voting has been terrible (I don't like his crusade against ntn, the votes against ntn D1, D4, and D5 seem poorly reasoned, and the D5 switch to Danny looks bad also). However since we have confirmation he's scanned good, I don't see this as a good percentage play.

mckerney: Had a reasonably good vote on mau D1 though it looks better because of the number of people that jumped on him at the same time. The D5 vote on Danny brings him down as well as being way under the radar. He's been a good partner though.

hoops: His voting record is poor (ntn D1, known villagers D4+D5). On the other hand, he and CR have had, IMO, the most accurate breakdown of what's been going on thus far. I've never played with hoops as wolf and I know he's a good one, so the fact he isn't lower is mostly based on vibe and that we're mostly seeing things the same way.

Pass: The D1 vote isn't too hot, the D5 vote doesn't seem so bad though. His stuff with Chief yesterday was annoying and distracting, but also came across as Pass being Pass so I tried to ignore it. No great trust for him at the moment, I will say it seems unlikely both he and hoops would be wolves with Pass' willingness to jump on hoops yesterday.

Autumn: Assuming I'm not voting in self-defense, this is where I'm leaning for my vote today. His D1 will obviously look worse to me than anyone else, but I also don't like the switch to mau after he basically came out as 'seer', I don't understand it. I don't like that he's been trying to make a case for CR as wolf because of him taking back the vote on mau and leaving out the best evidence for CR being cleared in mau putting vote #2 on Chief. I haven't poured over his previous posts but I think he was making a case for ntn which I don't think is realistic. Now knowing that Danny is a villager, I don't like how he jumped on my idea of saying he thought Danny was most suspicious for most of the day D4 then gave a reason why he thought Danny was ok, and then immediately voted Danny D5. Honestly, the best thing I can say about Autumn thus far is that he didn't come out and vote me right away today when as a wolf, it would've seemed like the obvious set-up after the past couple days.

So that's where I stand with things. I think it's most likely we'll find 2 if not 3 wolves on the bottom four people I listed.

These things are always tricky to do when you are a wolf because you don't want them scrutinized too heavily after you are busted. What I normally try to do, and I expect he did as well, is be pretty straight with his reviews on people but play with the order a little bit to steer us wrong. Clearly having Autumn as last was bad, and I would like to think that having me as 3rd to last was clearly bad to most of the people reading this now.

So the question I have here is would he list three non-wolves at the bottom (clearing Pass) and a wolf at the top (CR)? That shows quite a bit of courage to try and pull off.

This also reminds me that I should take a look at the Day 4 vote since he strongly suggests that there were only villagers in it ...

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Another comment yesterday related to CR. Again, these are relatively small things I've been finding and I'm hoping others can provide their feedback (trend or random?) on the stuff I'm pulling.

I would imagine JAG was doing what most good wolves will do and play it straight when he can, to come off as honest and real as possible. And he's right, there wasn't all that much evidence for me; it was at best conflicting. It's ironic in that my decision not to vote for him then provides the "good evidence" JAG was asking for.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:20 PM

Chief, I'm not stuck on you as a candidate at this point - I'm just in serious JAG post analysis and kind of typing free-form what my reactions are right now. I'm certainly happy to discuss them, but for the most part I'm interpreting what he typed ... as opposed to digging into your posts where there is room for clarification on what was meant in the posts.

If you think this is a good train of thought, but don't like the conclusions being drawn, I would invite you to go down the same path with me and show me some posts, voting records, whatever that I'm missing that seem important to you.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

As of post 1369:

Danny 6 - Autumn (1218), JAG (1245), hoopsguy (1294), mckerney (1342), GoldenEagle (1362), Chief Rum (1369)
hoopsguy 3 - Danny (1314), Passacaglia (1316), PackerFanatic (1324)
Passacaglia 3 - cougarfreak (1288), ntndeacon (1293), bhlloy (1358)

Day 5 vote (as I see it):

Danny 6 - villager, wolf, villager, pretty sure villager, ???, ???
Hoops 3 - villager, ???, hedging towards villager
Pass 3 - hedging towards villager, hedging towards villager, villager

If we did have 3 villagers on the block, then why would GE swing his vote late in this one to draw attention? I realize I'm the one creating a lot of heat on GE by questioning his clear, but I want to look at this as completely as possible. A late switch in a 3 villager race doesn't provide much value for them in terms of werewolf. I have no idea if there were any race considerations but kind of doubt it.

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, I'm not stuck on you as a candidate at this point - I'm just in serious JAG post analysis and kind of typing free-form what my reactions are right now. I'm certainly happy to discuss them, but for the most part I'm interpreting what he typed ... as opposed to digging into your posts where there is room for clarification on what was meant in the posts.

If you think this is a good train of thought, but don't like the conclusions being drawn, I would invite you to go down the same path with me and show me some posts, voting records, whatever that I'm missing that seem important to you.

I appreciate it, hoops, but I'm not going to have much time for that. My best option right now is to read and react and provide what insight I can, and hope that anyone interested in me as a wolf will come to the conclusion I am the villager I say I am.

You are finding what I recall from the past day, after JAG was challenged to speak more, and that's that he was surprisingly positive on me. I even thought he was a little too positive given the conflicting evidence for and against my allegiance, but I certainly welcomed it, considering I was under a good deal of pressure from Pass and then Autumn, and was consistently mentioned as a wolf candidate by several players.

If anything, I would say he was too consistently positive of me for me to be a wolf with him. If I were, I would think he would keep his comments on me muted, nothing much positive or negative, because the saw cuts both ways, whichever way you go.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You're making good points here. Probably not relevant for today's vote, but important later on.

Here is Pass talking with Danny, supporting his ideas that Chief was not a good candidate based on Day 1 voting stuff.

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 05:31 PM

TL;DR

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh...typical hardly mention hoops all day and then make a run while I went to go work out.

Look, I don't know hoops' allegiance. He may very well be a wolf. But just from the conversations I have had with him, he doesn't vibe like a wolf. I have seen a lot of mentions about him not being around as much and that being suspicious, but it's the truth that he's busy as heck at work. He's told me that in PMs, too, and hoops sn't the kind of guy to lie a out RL stuff to hide as a wolf. Like I said, he could very well be a wolf, but if the only reason some have is that he isn't around, u guys are barking up the wrong tree.

Plus, Pass has exhibited about as poor logical and argumentative skills in this game as I have ever seen in a player in a single game. If he took me to a sunrise and told me the sun exists, I am not sure I would buy it right now; that's how much cred he has. So following him onto hoops, I can't see the logic there.

As for the current other candidates, whatever his other qualities, I don't think Pass plays this way as a wolf. I have already pointed out how nutty it would be to see ntn as a wolf with the way Day 1 went. And I have had a good vibe from Danny all game. None of these choices really work for me, although Danny is very good as a wild hiding as a villager, and his actions, if not his words, have struck me as more suspicious than the other candidates.

It's just for vibe reasons, but my gut says to look closer at PF (who just did a driveby vote), cougar has seemed aittle off, and GE isn't as active as I recall him being.

Chief post on Day 5 voting candidates pretty late in day. Again, just pulling stuff now so it is easier to find for later review than pulling all of these has been over the last hour. I'm going to try and work through Days 4 and 5.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

TL;DR

I suspect both Chief and I have been on receiving end of this a bunch of times

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:40 PM

Eh, I'm going to drop the post review for a little while here. I want to take a look at what I think was the inflection point in the vote yesterday.

1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass

At this point, the votes were lined up like this:
mckerney - Chief, GE, NTN, GE
JAG - Autumn, Hoops, mckerney
NTN - PF
Pass - Cougar

No vote - Pass

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:43 PM

Note - post #1874 should have Chief, GE, NTN, and JAG (not GE twice)

There are 3 wolves at this point - brutal, cunning, and JAG

Do they want to have a 5-5 standoff and have no lynch + no night actions? Well, villagers have no night actions and if all three wolves are exposed voting to protect JAG then that is a bad day at the office for them, right?

They have to figure they are not moving the three JAG voters at this point - mckerney is self defense and Autumn and I have dug in pretty squarely.

So what do you make of the remaining players in this little melodrama from last night?

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:51 PM

Hmm, appear to have waited too late in the day to discuss this stuff.

And still a bunch of votes left to be cast.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 05:54 PM

At this point, I'm between Chief and Pass for the vote today. I think Chief, on the whole, looks a smidge better in terms of Mau fake-clearing him (wolf really shouldn't fake reveal a wolf) and their votes on each other that day. That, plus suspecting that JAG wouldn't put Rum on top of his trust list as a wolf, make me lean towards Pass right now. It is close, and I'm willing to be talked out of it, but that where I'm at now.

If Pass/Chief are both villagers I think we're going to lose the game.

VOTE PASS

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 05:57 PM

I'm here.

Just stepped away from my desk for a sec.

Looking at the remaining votes, I have come to the conclusion that I am a villager.

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

At this point, I'm between Chief and Pass for the vote today. I think Chief, on the whole, looks a smidge better in terms of Mau fake-clearing him (wolf really shouldn't fake reveal a wolf) and their votes on each other that day. That, plus suspecting that JAG wouldn't put Rum on top of his trust list as a wolf, make me lean towards Pass right now. It is close, and I'm willing to be talked out of it, but that where I'm at now.

If Pass/Chief are both villagers I think we're going to lose the game.

VOTE PASS

Well, if that's the way the village goes, I hope you're right about Pass, because you're wrong about me.

Why again is it a bad idea to lynch the cunning? Or is it that you don't think GE is the cunning?

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 06:06 PM

Chief, because I don't think it is a lock that GE is the cunning. And if we are wrong, then we've set ourselves up to go 4-2 against the cunning and brutal. Which means we need to guess the right wolf.

So we try for another person we think is a wolf today. If we end up with a wolf who is the cunning then we have cleared GE. Big, big win.

If we end up with a villager, then we still find ourselves 4-2 and then we look to get the cunning with our next vote rather than run into the brutal and lose the game 1-1.

Danny · 03-04-2011, 06:07 PM

Good vote

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, because I don't think it is a lock that GE is the cunning. And if we are wrong, then we've set ourselves up to go 4-2 against the cunning and brutal. Which means we need to guess the right wolf.

So we try for another person we think is a wolf today. If we end up with a wolf who is the cunning then we have cleared GE. Big, big win.

If we end up with a villager, then we still find ourselves 4-2 and then we look to get the cunning with our next vote rather than run into the brutal and lose the game 1-1.

Either way, we're two bad votes away from done and have to spend a day looking for the cunning. I don't see the difference between doing that today or doing it Monday.

I don't think it's a lock that GE is the cunning either, but the wolves avoiding him is compelling. That combined with his not too great vote record suggests this is an area to look at.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 06:19 PM

Chief, I'm going to be sending you a PM ... want to hammer something out re: our race.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Either way, we're two bad votes away from done and have to spend a day looking for the cunning. I don't see the difference between doing that today or doing it Monday.

I don't think it's a lock that GE is the cunning either, but the wolves avoiding him is compelling. That combined with his not too great vote record suggests this is an area to look at.

But there is no chance of him being the brutal wolf - every other remaining player in question has a chance at being two wolf roles.

We have no chance of "lucking" into the cunning with a vote on GE ... he either is or is not that role. If you asked me if he has the greatest chance of being the cunning among the remaining players I say "absolutely". If you ask me if he has the greatest chance, by a wide margin, of being a wolf I so "I'm not sure".

So I think I'm recommending the safest course, assuming we have the flexibility to miss one vote the rest of the way. Short of very hidden mechanics, I believe we do have that flexibility.

Autumn · 03-04-2011, 06:23 PM

No, I think Hoops has it right. There's only one wolf GE can be. If you catch the other wolf and find the cunning you've learned much more than in a normal wolf lynch.

The fact that I'm feeling pushback from Chief about this GE thing makes me wonder. Perhaps it's Chief and Pass that are the last two?

PackerFanatic · 03-04-2011, 06:29 PM

I wish I was as good at this game as you guys, lol...

VOTE PASS

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

No, I think Hoops has it right. There's only one wolf GE can be. If you catch the other wolf and find the cunning you've learned much more than in a normal wolf lynch.

The fact that I'm feeling pushback from Chief about this GE thing makes me wonder. Perhaps it's Chief and Pass that are the last two?

The pushback is because I think we have a wolf there, and I think we're shooting in the dark going elsewhere. I think we have a good chance of GE being the cunning. While there are several candidates outside of GE who have similar levels of distrust.

IMO, I see us passing up a good chance to grab a wolf to take a shot in the dark.

hoops is saying this way is safer. Well, I guess that depends on how you view the likelihood of GE being a wolf versus being pick whatever random candidate in the crowd. I obviously have higher confidence that GE is a wolf, so I don't see hoops' direction as being the safer route. I see it as taking us away from a wolf.

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 06:38 PM

Dola,

If we had stronger wolf candidates in the remaining pool , this would be different, but I don't get the sense we're any closer to really revealing a wolf outside of GE.

Heck, I don't even know exactly what the case is against Pass. It seems like he is more a target of circumstance and some not liking his approach to things as because of vote counts or suspicious actions.

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 06:39 PM

Well, okay, holding back his vote yesterday... that was the most suspicious hting I think that he has done. But he was seeing a lot of heat well before that.

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, I'm going to be sending you a PM ... want to hammer something out re: our race.

I was just starting to consider that myself. I'll check my PMs.

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 06:45 PM

While I've said suspicions against GE, I am now struck with the notion that you should look at the first 2 people who voted for GE today if GE is not a wolf.

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 06:49 PM

Isn't there only two votes on GE right now?

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 07:06 PM

There was a 3rd, which was reneged. PackerFan pulled a Chief Rum

Danny · 03-04-2011, 07:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Dola,

If we had stronger wolf candidates in the remaining pool , this would be different, but I don't get the sense we're any closer to really revealing a wolf outside of GE.

Heck, I don't even know exactly what the case is against Pass. It seems like he is more a target of circumstance and some not liking his approach to things as because of vote counts or suspicious actions.

I'm starting to think it's you and Pass and not GE.

Danny · 03-04-2011, 07:14 PM

CR, you're a stronger player than to be focused on a player who could only be the cunning with another wolf out there.

mckerney · 03-04-2011, 07:22 PM

Unvote Golden Eagle
Vote Passacaglia

There seems to be more of a consensus to go there for the lynch today, so I'm willing to go along with that.

CrimsonFox · 03-04-2011, 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

At this point, I'm between Chief and Pass for the vote today. I think Chief, on the whole, looks a smidge better in terms of Mau fake-clearing him (wolf really shouldn't fake reveal a wolf) and their votes on each other that day. That, plus suspecting that JAG wouldn't put Rum on top of his trust list as a wolf, make me lean towards Pass right now. It is close, and I'm willing to be talked out of it, but that where I'm at now.

If Pass/Chief are both villagers I think we're going to lose the game.

VOTE PASS

I've thought about that. I've thought about their whole fight scene being staged. I've thought about either of them being wolves. ON the one hand Pass going after CHief to throw people off. On the other hand Chief using his patented CIrcle of Logic to make Pass blow and throw people off the track. THen I've thought of these two just being villagers with hints of stubbornness and adamantly defending their points of view. Because I CAN see a GE/Cougar possibility.

Chief Rum · 03-04-2011, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

CR, you're a stronger player than to be focused on a player who could only be the cunning with another wolf out there.

Who is the other wolf we should be inequivocably going after here, Danny. Please name someone and tell me all the evidence for them being wolves. Because I guarantee you whoever you name, I can name two others and make just as strong a case for then as you will for yours. That's the problem with this plan. Y'all are so confident you're going to pick a wolf out of the 4 or 5 likely choices, you don't even recognize the risk you're taking.

Danny · 03-04-2011, 08:36 PM

And GE is a much stronger candidate than those 4 or 5 you speak of? And I dont think there are 4 or 5 candidates that are equal.

Hoops has his JAG vote yesterday and should not be receiving any votes.

NTN has all of day 1 and other things in his favor

Packer has vote #1 on mauboy day 1. He is not the type of player to vote for a fellow wolf like that on day 1.

Mckerney has his day 1 Mau vote along with some things throughout along with yesterday that put him above the others.

Cougar doesn't have anything particularly good or bad in his favor.

Then you have GoldenEagle, who reading past posts, I think actually has a decent chance at being a villager.

Then you have Pass who has bad votes overall and looks awfully guilty from the way yesterday's vote went down.

Then you, CR, with some bad votes, but also some thing supporting you.

Yes, you are right, there is not a clear cut 100% candidate (well I actually think Pass is about a 90% candidate after reading him during last night's lynch), but GE is certainly not one either.

And GE is the only player with a 1/8 chance of being a wolf, every other player is a 1/4 chance.

hoopsguy · 03-04-2011, 08:42 PM

Lets work through it, CR.

Scenario #1: GE = cunning and we end up lynching a villager today.
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill (assuming it is not GE)
tomorrow we lynch GE and he is cunning, 4-1
night kill leads to 3-1
and we have to get the brutal that day or we lose

Scenario #2: GE = villager and we lynch him today
6-2 now
goes to 5-2 with bad lynch
goes to 4-2 with night kill
we are left needing to get brutal/cunning without any idea who has either role and a GE runaway would have proved nothing in terms of getting next wolf

Scenario #3: we lynch a wolf today that turns out to be cunning. GE = 100% cleared the rest of the way, hunt for last wolf is easier as we can afford two misses.

Scenario #4: we lynch the brutal today, and if GE is still around in morning we go after him as cunning. Even if that is wrong, we still have a day left.

I'm sure there are a couple of other scenarios, but I don't see one where leaving GE to tomorrow hurts our cause if he is in fact a wolf. It is only if he is a villager and the person we lynch today is a villager that we are hosed. But if that is case, weren't we going to be hosed lynching GE and then the other person? I just don't see what new info we would learn, barring a close vote that involved a villager/wolf showdown.

03-04-2011, 05:15 PM	#1864
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Well, I have already stated that yesterday's vote did me no good as a villager. I said I actually looked worse than the other two mckerney voters we were looking at this morning (GE & ntn). As you surmised hoops, I wasn't around at deadline. I actually left shortly after placing my vote, and wasn't able to check in until well after the deadline. So I don't mind the pressure; I understand it. But fact of the matter is, I'm a villager. Lynching me does no good. Can someone explain to me why it's a bad idea to lynch the cunning? I'm not getting the reasoning for that. If we think we have a wolf, let's lynch him and be done with it. I at least can understand the village avoiding the brutal, since you don't want to do the 2-for-1 tradeoff that happens with a brutla wolf lynch. To both of you, CF and hoops, I do recommend you look at Day One. CF, you say it's easy to make a good Day One vote, because it's Day One, but I did some things there that shouldn't just be ignored. My first mau vote came in a surprise block of votes for him. When I saw what happened, I immediately unvoted him to consider that run. That actually puts a spotlight on me (and it has indeed, with how it has been questioned). A wolf doesn't make that move. A wolf also doesn't jump around as much as I did on Day One, at least not a smart one. Standout Day One votes and moving around a lot are bad ideas for a wolf trying to hide amongst the crowd. Finally, and hoops, you yourself noted this in your vote rundown of that day, when mau vsersus ntn was coming to a head and they were even, I was on ntn and switched to mau. If ntn is a villager--a cause I have been championing most of the game now and which seems to finally be accepted by most--then I just switched off of ntn, on whom I had a perfectly defensible Day One vote, to move mau up above him. All that said, I am well aware my voting record is a mixed bag. As for talking with JAG, hoops, that's a bit of a reach, although I see what you're saying. I didn't see what you guys did on JAG. He was making logically sound arguments and didn't come off wolfish to me. He didn't have good clearing vote or anything, but he also didn't have a really bad one. I didn't really feel like there was anything I needed to sya to him at that point. I talk much more to people who disagree with me in WW games than I do to ones who agree with me. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-04-2011, 05:57 PM	#1878
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	I'm here. Just stepped away from my desk for a sec. Looking at the remaining votes, I have come to the conclusion that I am a villager. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-04-2011, 06:38 PM	#1888
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Dola, If we had stronger wolf candidates in the remaining pool , this would be different, but I don't get the sense we're any closer to really revealing a wolf outside of GE. Heck, I don't even know exactly what the case is against Pass. It seems like he is more a target of circumstance and some not liking his approach to things as because of vote counts or suspicious actions. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-04-2011, 06:39 PM	#1889
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Well, okay, holding back his vote yesterday... that was the most suspicious hting I think that he has done. But he was seeing a lot of heat well before that. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-04-2011, 06:49 PM	#1892
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Isn't there only two votes on GE right now? __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

03-04-2011, 04:36 PM	#1854
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	I tend to agree with what Danny posted - lynching GE today isn't the right move even if it sure feels like he is a wolf. One thing that struck me on a re-read of yesterday was the lack of conversation between Chief Rum and JAG, even though it appears they were in the thread at the same time. When I'm a wolf, that is something I try to avoid doing ... forgetting to talk to my fellow wolves in thread, since I would presumably be interacting with them as a villager (don't know anyone's allegiance). That, coupled with some of the other concerns re: Chief in terms of voting record has me putting him considerably lower than what I've heard from the group so far. He has been a very good race teammate, but that doesn't matter to me all that much when it comes to his villager/wolf possibilities.

03-04-2011, 04:42 PM	#1855
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Remember yesterday when I said I came to the conclusion to vote for people that were quiet until you tell them they are quiet and then they talk? Well I was speaking of GE as well. Was quiet until I pointed out he was quiet, then he was all chatters (both ingame and privately). And the spidey sense about him has never stopped tingling. Granted he does eat a lot. That's the only thing going for him. BUt his voting and answers regarding why he votes them seem textbook wolf answer 101. And today I have my doubts that Pass is a wolf. I think Chief Rum is a wolf, except that I looked back at day 1/2 and Chief's voting record is good there. BUT on day one anything can happen and he knows that. It is very easy to throw a vote on a wolf that does not stick. The other is cougarfreak. Can't figure him out and had my suspicions.

03-04-2011, 04:49 PM	#1857
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	But hoops, when you bring someone up in conversation, you are basically saying "Vote for that person". I think that clears pass more than implicates him.

03-04-2011, 04:57 PM	#1861
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	Then again, The Jackal is online now. He's probably still a wolf somehow. LIke WOlf Ghost or something.

03-04-2011, 05:20 PM	#1867
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Chief, I'm not stuck on you as a candidate at this point - I'm just in serious JAG post analysis and kind of typing free-form what my reactions are right now. I'm certainly happy to discuss them, but for the most part I'm interpreting what he typed ... as opposed to digging into your posts where there is room for clarification on what was meant in the posts. If you think this is a good train of thought, but don't like the conclusions being drawn, I would invite you to go down the same path with me and show me some posts, voting records, whatever that I'm missing that seem important to you.

03-04-2011, 05:31 PM	#1871
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	TL;DR

03-04-2011, 05:40 PM	#1874
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Eh, I'm going to drop the post review for a little while here. I want to take a look at what I think was the inflection point in the vote yesterday. 1640 - mck unvotes Pass, votes JAG 4-3-1-1 mck over JAG over NTN/Pass At this point, the votes were lined up like this: mckerney - Chief, GE, NTN, GE JAG - Autumn, Hoops, mckerney NTN - PF Pass - Cougar No vote - Pass

03-04-2011, 05:43 PM	#1875
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Note - post #1874 should have Chief, GE, NTN, and JAG (not GE twice) There are 3 wolves at this point - brutal, cunning, and JAG Do they want to have a 5-5 standoff and have no lynch + no night actions? Well, villagers have no night actions and if all three wolves are exposed voting to protect JAG then that is a bad day at the office for them, right? They have to figure they are not moving the three JAG voters at this point - mckerney is self defense and Autumn and I have dug in pretty squarely. So what do you make of the remaining players in this little melodrama from last night?

03-04-2011, 05:51 PM	#1876
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Hmm, appear to have waited too late in the day to discuss this stuff. And still a bunch of votes left to be cast.

03-04-2011, 05:54 PM	#1877
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	At this point, I'm between Chief and Pass for the vote today. I think Chief, on the whole, looks a smidge better in terms of Mau fake-clearing him (wolf really shouldn't fake reveal a wolf) and their votes on each other that day. That, plus suspecting that JAG wouldn't put Rum on top of his trust list as a wolf, make me lean towards Pass right now. It is close, and I'm willing to be talked out of it, but that where I'm at now. If Pass/Chief are both villagers I think we're going to lose the game. VOTE PASS

03-04-2011, 06:06 PM	#1880
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Chief, because I don't think it is a lock that GE is the cunning. And if we are wrong, then we've set ourselves up to go 4-2 against the cunning and brutal. Which means we need to guess the right wolf. So we try for another person we think is a wolf today. If we end up with a wolf who is the cunning then we have cleared GE. Big, big win. If we end up with a villager, then we still find ourselves 4-2 and then we look to get the cunning with our next vote rather than run into the brutal and lose the game 1-1.

03-04-2011, 06:07 PM	#1881
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Good vote

03-04-2011, 06:19 PM	#1883
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Chief, I'm going to be sending you a PM ... want to hammer something out re: our race.

03-04-2011, 06:23 PM	#1885
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	No, I think Hoops has it right. There's only one wolf GE can be. If you catch the other wolf and find the cunning you've learned much more than in a normal wolf lynch. The fact that I'm feeling pushback from Chief about this GE thing makes me wonder. Perhaps it's Chief and Pass that are the last two?

03-04-2011, 06:29 PM	#1886
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	I wish I was as good at this game as you guys, lol... VOTE PASS

03-04-2011, 06:45 PM	#1891
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	While I've said suspicions against GE, I am now struck with the notion that you should look at the first 2 people who voted for GE today if GE is not a wolf.

03-04-2011, 07:06 PM	#1893
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	There was a 3rd, which was reneged. PackerFan pulled a Chief Rum

03-04-2011, 07:14 PM	#1895
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	CR, you're a stronger player than to be focused on a player who could only be the cunning with another wolf out there.

03-04-2011, 07:22 PM	#1896
mckerney Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Unvote Golden Eagle Vote Passacaglia There seems to be more of a consensus to go there for the lynch today, so I'm willing to go along with that.

03-04-2011, 08:36 PM	#1899
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	And GE is a much stronger candidate than those 4 or 5 you speak of? And I dont think there are 4 or 5 candidates that are equal. Hoops has his JAG vote yesterday and should not be receiving any votes. NTN has all of day 1 and other things in his favor Packer has vote #1 on mauboy day 1. He is not the type of player to vote for a fellow wolf like that on day 1. Mckerney has his day 1 Mau vote along with some things throughout along with yesterday that put him above the others. Cougar doesn't have anything particularly good or bad in his favor. Then you have GoldenEagle, who reading past posts, I think actually has a decent chance at being a villager. Then you have Pass who has bad votes overall and looks awfully guilty from the way yesterday's vote went down. Then you, CR, with some bad votes, but also some thing supporting you. Yes, you are right, there is not a clear cut 100% candidate (well I actually think Pass is about a 90% candidate after reading him during last night's lynch), but GE is certainly not one either. And GE is the only player with a 1/8 chance of being a wolf, every other player is a 1/4 chance.

03-04-2011, 08:42 PM	#1900
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Lets work through it, CR. Scenario #1: GE = cunning and we end up lynching a villager today. 6-2 now goes to 5-2 with bad lynch goes to 4-2 with night kill (assuming it is not GE) tomorrow we lynch GE and he is cunning, 4-1 night kill leads to 3-1 and we have to get the brutal that day or we lose Scenario #2: GE = villager and we lynch him today 6-2 now goes to 5-2 with bad lynch goes to 4-2 with night kill we are left needing to get brutal/cunning without any idea who has either role and a GE runaway would have proved nothing in terms of getting next wolf Scenario #3: we lynch a wolf today that turns out to be cunning. GE = 100% cleared the rest of the way, hunt for last wolf is easier as we can afford two misses. Scenario #4: we lynch the brutal today, and if GE is still around in morning we go after him as cunning. Even if that is wrong, we still have a day left. I'm sure there are a couple of other scenarios, but I don't see one where leaving GE to tomorrow hurts our cause if he is in fact a wolf. It is only if he is a villager and the person we lynch today is a villager that we are hosed. But if that is case, weren't we going to be hosed lynching GE and then the other person? I just don't see what new info we would learn, barring a close vote that involved a villager/wolf showdown.

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