LXXVIII: Politicus Lupus (GAME OVER!! SEE POST #2593 FOR RESULTS) - Page 38

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 09:38 AM

Setting the pres scan aside, which we'll just agree to disagree on Chubby, it does seem that we agree on one thing:

That for this to be a wolf-beneficial ploy by me as a wolf, there would have to be more than 2 Repub wolves.

Now, think of this from a game standpoint, where the wolves need districts and not a number of people ratio. I contend, that CR wouldn't set the game up with a 3-1 ratio. It'd make the game *very* hard on the wolves, as it nearly closes off one whole half of the districts if we as a village even so much as happen to get lucky with an early lynch.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

"A 2/3 vote of Congress can impeach the President, and a 3/4 vote remove him from office, and he will be OUT OF THE GAME if this happens (politically ruined)."

"The President can be voted for as a Wolf while seated, but it only works if he actually is a Wolf, and receives a 2/3 vote. Any removal will be treated like an impeachment and subsequent removal from office, with similar effect. If he is voted as a Wolf and is not a Wolf, he will not be removed from office, regardless of the vote results, and votes for him will be ignored."

Not true...

Good point -- I was thinking about the votes getting ignored if the Prez was good. My bad.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

You do remember we don't vote for Prez right?

Yes, but we can affect the election by throwing six supports and six slurries around if the parties work together.

illinifan999 · 07-29-2008, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Yes, but we can affect the election by throwing six supports and six slurries around if the parties work together.

And if both parties endorse him.

Chubby · 07-29-2008, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Setting the pres scan aside, which we'll just agree to disagree on Chubby, it does seem that we agree on one thing:

That for this to be a wolf-beneficial ploy by me as a wolf, there would have to be more than 2 Repub wolves.

Now, think of this from a game standpoint, where the wolves need districts and not a number of people ratio. I contend, that CR wouldn't set the game up with a 3-1 ratio. It'd make the game *very* hard on the wolves, as it nearly closes off one whole half of the districts if we as a village even so much as happen to get lucky with an early lynch.

You're assuing that CR handpicked the wolves while I think it was random. If you want to ask him go ahead.

Chubby · 07-29-2008, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by illinifan999

And if both parties endorse him.

This coming from the minority of course

While I may be all for going after wolves as a moderate, some of my stauncher Democrat may not be so willing after you guys have played partisan all game...

Just sayin

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 09:46 AM

I'm really liking this mccollins vote. The way I look at it, the only way the wolves could win is if mccollins is good, and Chubby, chesapeake, and heinz are the wolves. And if that's the case, I don't see heinz having made this play.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

This coming from the minority of course

While I may be all for going after wolves as a moderate, some of my stauncher Democrat may not be so willing after you guys have played partisan all game...

Just sayin

Hey, which party found a wolf within its ranks? Doesn't seem like playing partisan to me. Maybe if you guys had done that, we'd be in a much better situation right now!

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 09:48 AM

I see what you're getting at Pass, it just seems risky to me (of course I know that I'm not lying)

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 09:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Hey, which party found a wolf within its ranks? Doesn't seem like playing partisan to me. Maybe if you guys had done that, we'd be in a much better situation right now!

Quoted for motherfucking truth.

Lathum · 07-29-2008, 09:48 AM

is it possible Heinze is the brutal wolf and with the kill he makes when he gets lynched the game is over...

the think with that is he would have to know PB is the seer....

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 09:49 AM

I think we all know what's going to happen here. PB is going to come on and say he's the Seer.

I will say this, I'm not surprised people aren't believing me. No one ever believes me when I do an actual reveal. They only ever believe me when I'm faking.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I see what you're getting at Pass, it just seems risky to me (of course I know that I'm not lying)

What seems risky about it?

Lathum · 07-29-2008, 09:51 AM

and to answer Heinze's question from yesterday.

I was acting strange yesterday and saying I distrusted McCollins more the PF but then voted PF it is because I thought PAss was the seer based on the way he came out and voted Mrs.Schmidty, then he hit and run voted PF.

I thought he was the seer and I didn't want to out him

mccollins · 07-29-2008, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I think we all know what's going to happen here. PB is going to come on and say he's the Seer.

I will say this, I'm not surprised people aren't believing me. No one ever believes me when I do an actual reveal. They only ever believe me when I'm faking.

Pre-emptive strike?

Chubby · 07-29-2008, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

is it possible Heinze is the brutal wolf and with the kill he makes when he gets lynched the game is over...

the think with that is he would have to know PB is the seer....

I don't know how they would pick up enough districts in that exchange to work...

mccollins · 07-29-2008, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'm really liking this mccollins vote. The way I look at it, the only way the wolves could win is if mccollins is good, and Chubby, chesapeake, and heinz are the wolves. And if that's the case, I don't see heinz having made this play.

If the only way for the wolves to win in your estimation is if I'm good, then why would you want to do them a favor and lynch me? That makes NO sense.

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What seems risky about it?

It goes against my basic principle of "I know a wolf and I will vote for him".

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

and to answer Heinze's question from yesterday.

I was acting strange yesterday and saying I distrusted McCollins more the PF but then voted PF it is because I thought PAss was the seer based on the way he came out and voted Mrs.Schmidty, then he hit and run voted PF.

I thought he was the seer and I didn't want to out him

That makes sense, thanks.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mccollins

If the only way for the wolves to win in your estimation is if I'm good, then why would you want to do them a favor and lynch me? That makes NO sense.

Sorry, this one was my fault!

I meant that if heinz is bad, and you were good, then the only way we lose is if Chubby and chesapeake are the other two wolves.

If you're bad, we don't lose at all.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

It goes against my basic principle of "I know a wolf and I will vote for him".

Then think it through a little more.

Tyrith · 07-29-2008, 10:00 AM

If this comes down to heinz vs. PB, there's no way I'm trusting PB over heinz. PB has done nothing to help prove his innocence all game long, whereas heinz has made a pretty perfect play, one way or another. I'm willing to concede that if heinz is lying and PB is the real seer we lose. Almost everyone else has already had their chance to fess up to being the seer, so any maneuvering late in the day will not be looked kindly upon.

Tyrith · 07-29-2008, 10:01 AM

How bad is it going to be if we get brutaled today?

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 10:02 AM

But what if Collins comes back as good? You then lynch me? Then we're DOUBLY fucked.

I mean, while I think in all likelihood Collins is bad (on the principle they must've gained *something* from the PF kill), tying my fate to his is not a gambit I want to take. I haven't scanned Collins, I don't know for sure at all on him. I scanned PB, I *know* he's a wolf.

Lathum · 07-29-2008, 10:02 AM

we are basing all these assumptions on 4 wolves.

if there are 5 wolves this could be endgame, maybe? I dunno? I have no clue about the whole district thing.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

But what if Collins comes back as good? You then lynch me? Then we're DOUBLY fucked.

I mean, while I think in all likelihood Collins is bad (on the principle they must've gained *something* from the PF kill), tying my fate to his is not a gambit I want to take. I haven't scanned Collins, I don't know for sure at all on him. I scanned PB, I *know* he's a wolf.

Why would we lynch you because mccollins came up good?

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

How bad is it going to be if we get brutaled today?

Well, if PB is the brutal, I figure he'd take me out, as I'd be a Seer who could be Pres.

I'm not the brutal (hard to be when I'm not the wolf) so no worries there. If I were though, I suppose the correct play if you lynch me would have to be for me to brutal to who I thought was the Seer. But that ain't gonna happen.

Tyrith · 07-29-2008, 10:05 AM

Lathum, if there are 5 wolves we never had a chance. 2.6 good players per wolf? That's nuts in anything resembling a normal game, which ultimately this is.

What's the harm in reversing the play, lynching PB, clearing the Rep side of wolves in all likelyhood, then lynching mccollins tomorrow? Does this materially injure our chances of not losing tonight?

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 10:07 AM

I'd agree with Tyrith here, 5 wolves would've just been a near impossible start with us. Coupled with what appears to be a rather restrictive policy as to how powerful we can make ourselves with bills, I can't see that as the case. I'd say like 95/5 we started with 4 or fewer wolves.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Lathum, if there are 5 wolves we never had a chance. 2.6 good players per wolf? That's nuts in anything resembling a normal game, which ultimately this is.

What's the harm in reversing the play, lynching PB, clearing the Rep side of wolves in all likelyhood, then lynching mccollins tomorrow? Does this materially injure our chances of not losing tonight?

The harm is that if you and heinz are the wolves, lynching PB, then night-killing illini gives you guys 7 districts. If either mccollins or Chubby are the fourth wolf, it's a wolf win.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The harm is that if you and heinz are the wolves, lynching PB, then night-killing illini gives you guys 7 districts. If either mccollins or Chubby are the fourth wolf, it's a wolf win.

Or, if illini and heinz are wolves, then night-killing you gives them 7 districts. Add Chubby or mccollins, and it's a wolf win.

Chubby · 07-29-2008, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

we are basing all these assumptions on 4 wolves.

if there are 5 wolves this could be endgame, maybe? I dunno? I have no clue about the whole district thing.

True, but I get the sense that 5 wolves would be too powerful but i don't know.

What do we think on 4 vs 5 wolves?

illinifan999 · 07-29-2008, 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The harm is that if you and heinz are the wolves, lynching PB, then night-killing illini gives you guys 7 districts. If either mccollins or Chubby are the fourth wolf, it's a wolf win.

Well, here's what we could do. We lynch PB. Bodyguard protects me. Doctor protects heinz. That way, if heinz and tyrith are wolves, we'll know it and I won't lost my districts in a night-kill.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

True, but I get the sense that 5 wolves would be too powerful but i don't know.

What do we think on 4 vs 5 wolves?

I'm with my the other members of my Party on this one -- if it's 5 wolves, we're screwed. If that's the case, I think our only CHANCE of winning is to hope heinz is the seer and make him President.

Tyrith · 07-29-2008, 10:14 AM

So it comes down to whether you believe heinz or not. I see little reason not to at this point -- and what other choice do we have except to fire a shot in the dark? At least this way we'll know.

Chubby · 07-29-2008, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by illinifan999

Well, here's what we could do. We lynch PB. Bodyguard protects me. Doctor protects heinz. That way, if heinz and tyrith are wolves, we'll know it and I won't lost my districts in a night-kill.

Wha? in your scenario we're protecting a wolf.

If heinz is wolf like I think he is, it raises my suspicion of you a lot. Also, we're most likely looking at guessing correctly on who to guard tonight to extend the game otherwise the wolves win.

There's no way we should annouce who we are guarding... sheesh

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by illinifan999

Well, here's what we could do. We lynch PB. Bodyguard protects me. Doctor protects heinz. That way, if heinz and tyrith are wolves, we'll know it and I won't lost my districts in a night-kill.

Why would the Doctor protect heinz?

Chubby · 07-29-2008, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

So it comes down to whether you believe heinz or not. I see little reason not to at this point -- and what other choice do we have except to fire a shot in the dark? At least this way we'll know.

and when we are wrong we'll certainly know because the game is over...

I'm more and more thinking heinz and illini are wolves and that it's 3-1 repub to dem wolves. it would explain a lot to me as i posted earlier...

Tyrith · 07-29-2008, 10:19 AM

Oh, upside to lynching PB, assuming heinz is a villager - we could really use the popularity boost from killing a wolf to not get booted out of office.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

Wha? in your scenario we're protecting a wolf.

If heinz is wolf like I think he is, it raises my suspicion of you a lot. Also, we're most likely looking at guessing correctly on who to guard tonight to extend the game otherwise the wolves win.

There's no way we should annouce who we are guarding... sheesh

Chubby got my back. By the way Chubby, I don't think I've heard your opinion on lynching mccollins?

jeheinz72 · 07-29-2008, 10:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why would the Doctor protect heinz?

In case I don't win the presidency?

illinifan999 · 07-29-2008, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

Wha? in your scenario we're protecting a wolf.

If heinz is wolf like I think he is, it raises my suspicion of you a lot. Also, we're most likely looking at guessing correctly on who to guard tonight to extend the game otherwise the wolves win.

There's no way we should annouce who we are guarding... sheesh

In my scenario we don't know if he's a wolf. If he is, then by protecting me from a night kill we save my districts and give us another night. We also then know that Tyrith and heinz are wolves. We then continue to BG whoever the wolves need to control the districs, while we finish them off.

Tyrith · 07-29-2008, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

and when we are wrong we'll certainly know because the game is over...

I'm more and more thinking heinz and illini are wolves and that it's 3-1 repub to dem wolves. it would explain a lot to me as i posted earlier...

If it's a wolf play wouldn't it make more sense for heinz to have said he scanned illini and say he's good then? Then he would have avoided the whole discussion about the presidency and we would have all been inclined to trust him more.

If this is a wolf play it's been planned for days. He's been hinting at me being good for quite some time. I have a hard time believing that a wolf planning it out that much would have made a mistake so likely to draw heat for no useful purpose.

illinifan999 · 07-29-2008, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by illinifan999

In my scenario we don't know if he's a wolf. If he is, then by protecting me from a night kill we save my districts and give us another night. We also then know that Tyrith and heinz are wolves. We then continue to BG whoever the wolves need to control the districs, while we finish them off.

And if he is the seer, he has a chance to live through the night.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by illinifan999

In my scenario we don't know if he's a wolf. If he is, then by protecting me from a night kill we save my districts and give us another night. We also then know that Tyrith and heinz are wolves. We then continue to BG whoever the wolves need to control the districs, while we finish them off.

I thought your scenario said that heinz WAS a wolf. Either way, we'd know by the end of the day.

mccollins · 07-29-2008, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I mean, while I think in all likelihood Collins is bad (on the principle they must've gained *something* from the PF kill)

PF was lynched by the village as a whole, he was not nightkilled.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:26 AM

Not to mention that you replied to my ONE post saying we'd lose it Tyrith and heinz are wolves, but have completely glossed over my post (and Chubby's billion posts) about how we lose if you and heinz are wolves.

Tyrith · 07-29-2008, 10:26 AM

The assumption being that the wolves prodded that one along.

Passacaglia · 07-29-2008, 10:27 AM

I think it's just that he was talking about the path kill.

illinifan999 · 07-29-2008, 10:27 AM

who are you talking to pass? me or mccollins?

07-29-2008, 10:27 AM	#1900
illinifan999 Pro Rookie Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: VA	who are you talking to pass? me or mccollins? __________________ Chicago Eagles 2 time ZFL champions We're "rebuilding"

07-29-2008, 09:46 AM	#1857
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	I'm really liking this mccollins vote. The way I look at it, the only way the wolves could win is if mccollins is good, and Chubby, chesapeake, and heinz are the wolves. And if that's the case, I don't see heinz having made this play.

07-29-2008, 09:48 AM	#1861
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	is it possible Heinze is the brutal wolf and with the kill he makes when he gets lynched the game is over... the think with that is he would have to know PB is the seer....

07-29-2008, 09:51 AM	#1864
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	and to answer Heinze's question from yesterday. I was acting strange yesterday and saying I distrusted McCollins more the PF but then voted PF it is because I thought PAss was the seer based on the way he came out and voted Mrs.Schmidty, then he hit and run voted PF. I thought he was the seer and I didn't want to out him

07-29-2008, 10:00 AM	#1872
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	If this comes down to heinz vs. PB, there's no way I'm trusting PB over heinz. PB has done nothing to help prove his innocence all game long, whereas heinz has made a pretty perfect play, one way or another. I'm willing to concede that if heinz is lying and PB is the real seer we lose. Almost everyone else has already had their chance to fess up to being the seer, so any maneuvering late in the day will not be looked kindly upon.

07-29-2008, 10:01 AM	#1873
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	How bad is it going to be if we get brutaled today?

07-29-2008, 10:02 AM	#1875
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	we are basing all these assumptions on 4 wolves. if there are 5 wolves this could be endgame, maybe? I dunno? I have no clue about the whole district thing.

07-29-2008, 10:05 AM	#1878
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Lathum, if there are 5 wolves we never had a chance. 2.6 good players per wolf? That's nuts in anything resembling a normal game, which ultimately this is. What's the harm in reversing the play, lynching PB, clearing the Rep side of wolves in all likelyhood, then lynching mccollins tomorrow? Does this materially injure our chances of not losing tonight?

07-29-2008, 10:14 AM	#1885
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	So it comes down to whether you believe heinz or not. I see little reason not to at this point -- and what other choice do we have except to fire a shot in the dark? At least this way we'll know.

07-29-2008, 10:19 AM	#1889
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Oh, upside to lynching PB, assuming heinz is a villager - we could really use the popularity boost from killing a wolf to not get booted out of office.

07-29-2008, 10:26 AM	#1897
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Not to mention that you replied to my ONE post saying we'd lose it Tyrith and heinz are wolves, but have completely glossed over my post (and Chubby's billion posts) about how we lose if you and heinz are wolves.

07-29-2008, 10:26 AM	#1898
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	The assumption being that the wolves prodded that one along.

07-29-2008, 10:27 AM	#1899
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	I think it's just that he was talking about the path kill.

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