WW LXXXVII Terror at the University :Game over, Wolves win!

[The Jackal]

Would you have preferred me to make it 3-3-2, Telle? At least EF has some questions around him, Gram seems a purely random target unless I missed something.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Would you have preferred me to make it 3-3-2, Telle? At least EF has some questions around him, Gram seems a purely random target unless I missed something.

You and Grammatica both had two, so I was going to go with one of you. You putting the fourth vote on EagleFan was just something to put you mildly ahead of him.

[Danny]

Gram is a random target. I have no problem with your vote personally, would seem logical whether a wolf or villager.

One question though, in your vote post you said my vibe from EF made you feel better about the EF vote. I posted my vibes were not wolfy to this point, not sure how that makes you more comfortable?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Would you rather I random dot com it? It's day one, I need something to use to determine the vote so that makes as much sense as any.

Interesting, last game you tried using twisted logic to get the vote going towards me and I remember how that one ended.

Originally Posted by EagleFan

All I did was explain my vote. Not sure what else you want me to do. Oh well, gotta bolt for a while.

Actually, explaining your vote is the one thing you really DIDN'T do.

Just sayin'.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Danny

Gram is a random target. I have no problem with your vote personally, would seem logical whether a wolf or villager.

One question though, in your vote post you said my vibe from EF made you feel better about the EF vote. I posted my vibes were not wolfy to this point, not sure how that makes you more comfortable?

Wow, I completely misread your post. Thanks for pointing that out - so now I'm no more comfortable with my vote on EF than I would be on anyone else. I'll leave it for now, but I'm watching.

[Danny]

I'm not comfortable voting for anyone at this point myself. I always waiver quite a bit on my day one votes.

[DaddyTorgo]

hmmm - stuff going on already on D1 - interesting

[DaddyTorgo]

got a few hours before i have to cast my vote, but i don't really see anything suspicious at this point (course i'm also tired - stayed up a bit too late again last night)

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

hmmm - stuff going on already on D1 - interesting

What dya expect? We're bored.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

What dya expect? We're bored.

You have no idea. I'm stuck waiting on other people for all my tasks at work right now, so I get to sit here and twiddle my little thumbs all day. I'm bored out of my mind.

[jeheinz72]

I hear that.

[Abe Sargent]

Me too.

[Danny]

I'm enjoying my last week off before not getting a a break for a year by doing as little as possible. Being bored is nice for a change of pace.

[EagleFan]

Will a sad face work?

It at least looks like a sad day for the village to loase one of their own if things don't turn around soon.

I don't feel comfortable with this vote but it's in self defense at this point.


unvote CR

vote The Jackal

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

VOTE THE JACKAL
VOTE EAGLEFAN
VOTE NIGHTFALL

Quoted post back from page 1, Hoopsguy's mastermind plan is being orchestrated to perfection

[Lathum]

4 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135)
4 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164)
2 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98)
1 - Danny - Cheif Rum (46)


It's nice to see some real day 1 discussion!!

[Telle]

Yet to vote: DaddyTorgo, Hoopsguy, Danny, Grammaticus

[Telle]

So now the question is, do we prefer a 2-horse or a 3-horse race?

[Danny]

Does anyone know how much Gram is able to be on before the deadline?

[jeheinz72]

2-horse, though really, 1-horse.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Quoted post back from page 1, Hoopsguy's mastermind plan is being orchestrated to perfection

This is what people get when they root for the Eagles. I wish I could say that I feel sorry for them.

[DaddyTorgo]

idk how much gram is likely able to be on. we didn't PM about that.

eagle or jackel...eagle or jackel.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

2-horse, though really, 1-horse.

You would prefer to see a 1-horse race on D1?

Going to run a couple of numbers on the likelihood of having a wolf in the 2-horse and 3-horse scenarios.

#1 priority - get a wolf (duh). Easier to happen in a two-horse race, provided there is a wolf in the run-off.
#2 priority - have value out of D1 votes later in game.

15 players, assumption 3 wolves. Chance for any player to be a wolf = 20%.

1 horse race = 20% chance wolf is getting the votes

2 horse race = 0.8 (12/15) * 0.786 (11/14) = 63% chance that we have a pair of villagers against each other. 37% chance that we have a wolf in the mix, forcing wolves to either save/sacrifice one of their own.

3 horse race = 0.8 * 0.786 * 0.769 (10/13) = 48% chance that we have three villagers against each other. 52% chance that we have a wolf in the mix, forcing wolves to either save/sacrifice one of their own. Although pressure is likely not quite as great as it was in 2 horse race.


So, for me, the difference comes out of how much value you have in that 15% relative to the amount of pressure it puts on the wolves to make a move that reveals them later in game.

I would vote three horse race during a blind scenario like D1.

[Danny]

Three horse race sounds fine, I just would prefer it to be 3 players who will be on before deadline, especially in Gram's case where he could have a role. Considering he hasn't voted yet, I would think he will be on a bit.

[jeheinz72]

Sorry, I was being sarcastic about the whole 1-horse race thingy.

[Telle]

Well I'm out of here. The last posted vote count is correct as of post #175.

I won't be back before deadline.. and probably not until tomorrow.

[jeheinz72]

I still say 2-horse though.

15% more, yes, I get that, but you have to factor in that your relevant qualifier was just that "there is a wolf in the mix".

So ok, there is a 15% more chance a wolf is in the mix, but now there is less chance that the village will actually vote accurately that given day.

Plus for your #2 priority, to get values, if it's a 3-horse race than essentially 2 of the 3 have to die to get true value from any shifts. If it's a 2-horse race, then the ultimate value of those votes and moves is known throughout.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Sorry, I was being sarcastic about the whole 1-horse race thingy.

No problem, just wasn't sure if you were getting that strong a vibe on EF. Like I alluded to earlier, I do not trust my gut all that much in these games (and I have tried to 'cultivate' it, without any real success) so I tend to fall back on logic/math more than a lot of players.

Your sarcastic comment actually forced me to run the numbers on a concept that I intuitively grasped, but had never qualified, so it is all good. Statistics - that is a class that college students take, right?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I still say 2-horse though.

15% more, yes, I get that, but you have to factor in that your relevant qualifier was just that "there is a wolf in the mix".

So ok, there is a 15% more chance a wolf is in the mix, but now there is less chance that the village will actually vote accurately that given day.

Plus for your #2 priority, to get values, if it's a 3-horse race than essentially 2 of the 3 have to die to get true value from any shifts. If it's a 2-horse race, then the ultimate value of those votes and moves is known throughout.

Yep, this is where intelligent people can disagree. I had not considered the immediacy aspect of the voting records, and it is a good point.

[DaddyTorgo]

4 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135)
4 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164)
2 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98)
1 - Danny - Cheif Rum (46)

Yet to vote: DaddyTorgo, Hoopsguy, Danny, Grammaticus

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

idk how much gram is likely able to be on. we didn't PM about that.

eagle or jackel...eagle or jackel.

I assume you are disregarding Gramm because he is your roommate and you can PM with him? If not, what is the reason that you are only looking at Eagle or Jackal?

I'm pretty tempted to throw a vote on Gramm to make it a three horse race. But I'm kind of reluctant to do that to a guy who hasn't been around the thread much, especially when I'm not going to be around near deadline to move it. The two leaders, for better or worse, have had a chance to talk in the thread already.

[Danny]

Vote Grammaticus

I'll go along with your thought process for now Hoops, and I will be around to change it if necessary.

[DaddyTorgo]

that's exactly why i'm discounting Gram hoops. But if the village felt he was the best candidate i'd go with it - somebody's got to lose a roommate.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

that's exactly why i'm discounting Gram hoops. But if the village felt he was the best candidate i'd go with it - somebody's got to lose a roommate.

I'm hoping he comes online, but either way I'll be here to change my vote because if necessary.

[Lathum]

4 - EagleFan - jeheinz (79), Abe Sargent (86), jeff061 (109), The Jackal (135)
4 - The Jackel - Barkeep (49), Jonathan Ezarik (103), Telle (147), EF (164)
3 - Grammaticus - RPI-Fan (51), Hannibal (98), Danny (182)
1 - Danny - Cheif Rum (46)

Yet to vote: DaddyTorgo, Hoopsguy, Grammaticus

[jeff061]

Maybe I'm an idiot. But I don't see the point of the multihorse race discussion. At the end of the day only one is getting lynched with a 20% probability of being a wolf.

Providing a voting record for the future is a definite plus, but not if these races are being manufactured. That just creates a defense later on and makes it more difficult to lean on alternative motives.

[jeff061]

Almost edited. Ooops .

I cause if you can spawn a lot of flip flopping in a close race that could mean something, but I'd think that would be a pretty rookie mistake unless their backs are against the wall.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Maybe I'm an idiot. But I don't see the point of the multihorse race discussion. At the end of the day only one is getting lynched with a 20% probability of being a wolf.

Providing a voting record for the future is a definite plus, but not if these races are being manufactured. That just creates a defense later on and makes it more difficult to lean on alternative motives.

It has merit. Let's say both EF and Jackal are villagers and Gram does happen to be a wolf and gets lynched later on. Seeing who put the votes on him that put him at risk could help somewhat clear people. There's lots of cases where voting records from early on can help find wolves later.

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE EAGLEFAN

It's extremely doubtful I will be on before deadline - possible but not very likely.

[jeff061]

Right, but that value goes down if everyone is spreading the vote around for that very reason. Wolves can coordinate and spread the vote around, assuming they didn't vote right away(another data set to analyze).

[hoopsguy]

OK, so votes look like:
5 - Eagle
4 - Jackal
3 - Gramm

Gramm and I are only votes left, so assuming no movement (big if) a vote for Gramm is a wasted vote. Guess I'll pick between the other two.

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, what happens in the event of a tie? I do not see anything in the rules that discusses this potential outcome.

[Danny]

It's a no lynch, listed in the rules as the second part of another rule

[Danny]

Unvote Grammaticus
Vote The Jackal

Since Hoops won't be following and Gram won't either this is down to a two man race. I'll see where Hoopsguy and Gram put there vote, I will switch if necessary to avoid a tie.

[Abe Sargent]

I haven't played in a while, so woho all is in the game who hasn't played in a while besides JE?

[hoopsguy]

See it now. Thanks.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I haven't played in a while, so woho all is in the game who hasn't played in a while besides JE?

Jeff, Gramm, and RPI are the guys that immediately come to mind.

[Abe Sargent]

Well then I don;t want any of the old crowd getting voted of day one. Sucks to come back after a hiatus only to die in one day.

[Barkeep49]

I am a fan of 2 people, since I think it boxes the wolves in more, if there's a wolf in play. If there's a wolf in play with 3 people, I think the wolves have far more freedom of movement in their actions. I like boxing the wolves in.

As for the roommate discussion, I think roommates are irrelevant until we have a pair of them cleared. I would love to be able ot talk nuts and bolts with CR, as there is no villager who is more astute and I'd love to get up to his level of play. But since he might just as easily be a wolf...

This philosophy comes care of the Marvel game where my PM partner who I trusted had been cleared, except he hadn't been cleared and was a bad guy.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Well then I don;t want any of the old crowd getting voted of day one. Sucks to come back after a hiatus only to die in one day.

Feels the same way. FWIW, D1 is the only time I let meta-game stuff like that creep into my logic. But giving a one-day "welcome back" pass seems like a polite thing to do.