NFL 2023 Offseason/Free Agency/Draft Thread

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

That trio, just seeing the names grouped together. Absolutely reinforces my feelings about only one of them being Hall worthy. I saw enough of all three, only Manning ever entered my mind at any time in their career as a HOF'er.

One of the pieces of my "to-do" list with this analysis is to compile an average points against statistic.

Kind of like a baseball pitcher (W/L, ERA) only even less useful on its own because quarterbacks have very little responsibility on defense (however, they help in that a good quarterback keeps his opponents off the field in the first place).

But if you see a mediocre W/L record, good stats, but a high average points against, what does that mean? What do we do with Stafford? It's true - he threw more because the Lions were always behind. However, when you have to throw and you still put up great numbers... that says something.

Of course, it's a team game, and Calvin Johnson was an exceptional teammate. How do we tease out the true value of a quarterback from stats compiled by teams?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think a lot of Staffords numbers come from him having to throw a lot because they were always losing.

Reminded me of something I thought about looking up earlier. Turns out, thanks to pro football reference it's easy enough to do

QB record in the highest pass yard games (vis a vis talking about X has Y career yards, etc is why I wondered about this)

Matt Ryan: 4-6 (503 yards down to 389 yards)
Eli Manning: 4-6 (510 yards down to 399 yards)
Matt Stafford: 4-6 (520 yards down to 402 yards)

If you go to 20 biggest days
Ryan: 10-10
Manning: 8-12
Stafford: 11-8-1

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The first big news will be Derek Carr hitting pre-Free Agency in a few days. His brilliant agent structured his extension so that Carr got a no-trade clause AND the Raiders had to decide to pay him a huge bonus right after the Super Bowl.

That meant that he'd actually get the value of his contract or he'd get a month to himself in free agency before the other QBs hit the market.

And all signs are that they are going to cut him.

As a fan of a QB-needy team, I hope the Saints grab him. But, much like we were with Kirk Cousins, I think that we will all be shocked by what he gets.

He's a top 15-ish or so QB. And those guys rarely hit pure free agency. Even those big 40 and 50 million dollar per year extensions for guys are in places where the team still has some leverage over the player.

All he will need is two teams to get in a bidding war, and he will make "Wait, Derek Carr got how much?" money.

It looks like I might have been wrong about this. Carr is going to Indy to meet with teams. He wouldn't be doing that if he were weighing which $40 million/yr offer to take.

His market is softer than I expected.

[QuikSand]

Maybe this offseason and the Carr/Jones/Garropolo market will finally usher in a reality check for the "we want you to stay/sign, but can we all agree that you're not worthy of a set-the-market contract?"

THAT was where this all went wrong. When guys like Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler got not only enough-to-stay deals, but new-top-number deals and that just became the norm, especially at QB. It's lunacy. No other team should be sizing up Daniel Jones for a $40m/yr deal, period.

[QuikSand]

I'm just advocating for a consensus tier of "quality starting QB" as a totally worthwhile compensation level for a guy fitting that bill. Geno Smith should get a nice deal this year, presumably from Seattle, giving him something like $25m/yr for at least a couple of seasons. Some of these other guys should, too.

[sterlingice]

I'm not sure what % of QB that Carr is of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, etc. But it's not 90% so it would be foolish to allocate 90% of your cap that direction.

EDIT: Then again, you could argue that elite QBs are underpaid by tens of millions of dollars so a team could be going off of some sort of "Mahomes is actually worth $60M but only gets paid $40M and Carr is only worth 2/3rds of Mahomes so paying him $40M isn't a huge overpay"

SI

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

I'm just advocating for a consensus tier of "quality starting QB" as a totally worthwhile compensation level for a guy fitting that bill. Geno Smith should get a nice deal this year, presumably from Seattle, giving him something like $25m/yr for at least a couple of seasons. Some of these other guys should, too.

You say consensus, the NFLPA says collusion.

[tzach]

as NFL teams become more amenable to analytics, including financials, most are realizing that Carr is closer to Andy Dalton than to the tier above.

as the number of rookie qbs that can run increases, i can see a path for having some fungibility for that qb style, similar to what happened to the rb position.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

EDIT: Then again, you could argue that elite QBs are underpaid by tens of millions of dollars so a team could be going off of some sort of "Mahomes is actually worth $60M but only gets paid $40M and Carr is only worth 2/3rds of Mahomes so paying him $40M isn't a huge overpay"

SI

And I'm open to that as an eventual equilibrium. If the right price is 70m for a superstar and 35m for a solid starter... okay. I just don't think they should be on the same tier.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

And I'm open to that as an eventual equilibrium. If the right price is 70m for a superstar and 35m for a solid starter... okay. I just don't think they should be on the same tier.

And, if you're KC, you're still getting $20M more talent around Mahomes because he's "cheaper" relative to what he's worth

SI

[Solecismic]

In theory, if you're worth $20 million more than your peers (and I don't doubt that Mahomes is), then your peers have $20 million to spend on the rest of the team that your team does not.

In this idealized world where players are paid what they are worth, you have parity. As far as I know, Tom Brady is the only player who recognized this and consistently took less than he could have demanded. I'm sure there are others.

I am also sure there aren't any others with seven Super Bowl rings. There's only one other quarterback who even participated in half the Super Bowls Brady played in. Mahomes may get there, too - lots of time left and his numbers are just off-the-charts good. And his contract is pretty good for the Chiefs moving forward, if he continues to play at this level.

Carr has to make the same case Stafford made - great performances on an otherwise losing team. I wouldn't call either of them great, but teams can win with them. His agent might have set the price far too high, but it is very early, and he's going to get interviews.

[JPhillips]

The cap is predicted to go from 208 mil last year to 256 mil in 2025. Players are going to start making money well beyond what we used to see as their value.

[albionmoonlight]

In a completely rational market, a player hitting full unrestricted free agency should make more money than a player over whom a team has leverage (threat of tagging, etc.)

But I wonder if the market for QBs is fully rational. If the Giants front office, say, lets Daniel Jones leave, then that front office is the front office that let Daniel Jones leave. And unless the team keeps winning, that front office is going to get roasted for that and likely fired. So maybe--even though you know that it isn't smart--you pay him $40/year so you aren't the front office that let Daniel Jones leave. And, heck, if he regresses, maybe you even buy yourself a few more years if you convince your owner "we just need to get out from under the Daniel Jones contract."

In contrast, if Jones is in free agency, maybe teams set a price ceiling and stick to it. No one is afraid of losing their QB. They just hope to get a deal. And you can go to your fans and say "Hey, we weren't going above $28/year for Daniel Jones," and I think that your fans are OK with that.

Maybe that's why the market for guys like Carr isn't coming out as robust as I thought. Maybe enough of the Carr/Jimmy G/Wentz guys are hitting free agency that we won't see the Flacco/Cutler extension like Quik noted above.

[QuikSand]

Side note: the Chiefs/Mahomes forever contract from a few years back is sounding smarter and smarter with every advance in the free market, isn't it?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Side note: the Chiefs/Mahomes forever contract from a few years back is sounding smarter and smarter with every advance in the free market, isn't it?

Could it soon look like the equivalent of "Brady taking less" to help the Chiefs keep the window open? Or is that thing getting torn up in 3 years so he can reset the market?

SI

[flere-imsaho]

If Mahomes is rational, and has rational advisors, then I think it would hinge on how much endorsement money he's making now, and how much he can make in the future, and how much (if at all) that outweighs what he can make from the Chiefs.

Forbes seems to think Mahomes makes $20M/year in endorsements, but that was before he won his second SB: https://www.forbes.com/athletes/

[Kodos]

I hear he is a bath bomb guy.

[Coffee Warlord]

Apparently Jalen Carter now has an arrest warrant out for him.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I hear he is a bath bomb guy.

I heard Jazz bath guy. Man glad my Cards got outmaneuvered in his draft now let me tell you.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Apparently Jalen Carter now has an arrest warrant out for him.

Just like that, some millions disappear

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Apparently Jalen Carter now has an arrest warrant out for him.

We know who the Cowboys are selecting

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Atocep

We know who the Cowboys are selecting

Who picks higher? Them or the Raiders?

SI

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Apparently Jalen Carter now has an arrest warrant out for him.

...over an incident from months ago that everyone knew about. I know the warrant is news, but this didn't come out of nowhere.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...over an incident from months ago that everyone knew about. I know the warrant is news, but this didn't come out of nowhere.

Apparently the new twist is, he lied to the police about it, and he was potentially the one racing the two that crashed and died.

[QuikSand]

Ok, I just read the AJC coverage and... wow. You're totally right. Whole new story now, and pretty big consequences I'd think.

[GrantDawg]

Yeah. This will definitely hurt his status. I don't think he will spend time in jail but it will definitely cause teams to pause. He has not been charged with a felony, though I do wonder if they might not decide later to change that.

[JPhillips]

Could definitely change the first pick. I don't think Chicago can drop to #4 if that means they don't get Anderson and Carter is off the table. Wilson/Gonzalez/Skoronski is a big step down as the fifth best player available.

[GrantDawg]

I will also say I really can't be too upset with him about it. This was definitely "there by the grace of God" that at sometime this didn't happen to me when I was young and reckless. I couldn't count how many times I had been in that situation, but luckily never when anybody got seriously hurt. A couple of cars did, but none of us.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Could definitely change the first pick. I don't think Chicago can drop to #4 if that means they don't get Anderson and Carter is off the table. Wilson/Gonzalez/Skoronski is a big step down as the fifth best player available.

Depends on the return. Anderson is potentially a great player but he's not going to make the bears a great team. There are just too many holes. I don't have a problem with the bears trading out of the top 5 or even top 10 if the pick compensation is there.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Could definitely change the first pick. I don't think Chicago can drop to #4 if that means they don't get Anderson and Carter is off the table. Wilson/Gonzalez/Skoronski is a big step down as the fifth best player available.

The more I think about it, I think this just means he is not the first non-qb off the board, but he will still be the second. I will also say if he is there at 8 and the Falcons don't take him, someone is going to fire-bomb their front office. He won't drop past 5, though. Not unless something else comes out.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I will also say I really can't be too upset with him about it. This was definitely "there by the grace of God" that at sometime this didn't happen to me when I was young and reckless. I couldn't count how many times I had been in that situation, but luckily never when anybody got seriously hurt. A couple of cars did, but none of us.

If the reports are true that he was racing and weaving traffic at over 100mph its not something that should be written off as being young and reckless. It's stupid, negligent, and resulted in the death of 2 people.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Atocep

If the reports are true that he was racing and weaving traffic at over 100mph its not something that should be written off as being young and reckless. It's stupid, negligent, and resulted in the death of 2 people.

Incredibly, the charges here -- even under laws that were stiffened noticeably a couple of years ago -- for everything he's charged with are merely misdemeanors.

Street racing continues to largely be treated as an opportunity to generate revenue through the courts rather than as an actual criminal act. If convicted, your license is ostensibly suspended for one year (not automatic until 2021) but you get to apply for reinstatement after 120 days. You have to be convicted of "stunt driving" THREE TIMES before habitual violator status converts the act to a felony on the fourth occasion.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

...over an incident from months ago that everyone knew about. I know the warrant is news, but this didn't come out of nowhere.

The fact that Carter was involved so directly had been very quiet, at least locally, until today.

The arrest of another player on an unrelated racing charge last week seems likely to have been what broke the silence and led to today's events.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Incredibly, the charges here -- even under laws that were stiffened noticeably a couple of years ago -- for everything he's charged with are merely misdemeanors.

Street racing continues to largely be treated as an opportunity to generate revenue through the courts rather than as an actual criminal act. If convicted, your license is ostensibly suspended for one year (not automatic until 2021) but you get to apply for reinstatement after 120 days. You have to be convicted of "stunt driving" THREE TIMES before habitual violator status converts the act to a felony on the fourth occasion.

I've always been amazed at how street racing and DUIs are largely looked at as no big deal as long as no one is hurt in a lot of areas. Just kids being kids.

But even in an instance like this, where 2 people died, you get a couple misdemeanors and get to move on. The fact that he's a UGA athlete that's about to become a millionaire likely means the courts go even easier on him than your average citizen on top of it.

[GrantDawg]

Looks like he is denying it, and going to fight the charges:

pic.twitter.com/NbqNfIytBm

— Jalen Carter (@breadmanjalen) March 1, 2023

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Looks like he is denying it, and going to fight the charges:

Any & every charge in this jurisdiction is wise to fight at this point, the DA's office barely has any employees left and a comical incompetent in charge.

They struggle to convict water of being wet.

[GrantDawg]

I'm not sure of just going the mea-culpa route wouldn't be better to put this behind him. Admit the mistake, pay the fine, speak at some high-schools about safe driving and cash a high draft pick check. The AJC reportedly has video of the cars racing. Idk how fighting it helps.

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[flere-imsaho]

Could be that he's getting advice from idiots.

[tzach]

phone drew rosenhaus now and offer him 30% of the signing bonus if you are selected in the first round

[tzach]

when i hear john harbaugh speaking of lamar, it sounds more and more like vrabel speaking of aj brown at about the same time last season

[Solecismic]

Almost half the teams in the NFL have real questions about their quarterback situation. Some, like the Falcons and the Commanders, will likely hope that their mid-round guy from 2022 isn't just a backup guy. Some, like the Seahawks and probably the Ravens, will reluctantly resign what they had.

A four-QB first-round class won't help much, even with Anthony Richardson getting some of Bryce Young's buzz. Free agency is better for filling the backup role. There are a total of three free agent quarterbacks with more than five career wins and a +.500 career record. The Ravens have nothing to gain from not giving Jackson what he wants. The second is Joe Flacco, who doesn't seem like a starter at this point.

And the third is Jimmy Garoppolo, who is a remarkable 43-18 for his career, has led a team to a Super Bowl in the recent past and I think has a bum rap for all the injuries. He'd be a great fit for the Bucs.

Who else? Derek Carr can reliably start, at least. He'll get some money. Geno Smith is probably going back to the Seahawks, but his late-season performances are concerning. I'm not sold on Daniel Jones ever taking the next step. Guys are getting $40 million because finding someone who can competently run your playbook is quite difficult these days. You're probably going to see Andy Dalton and Matt Ryan back out there next season.

The Bears are in an intriguing spot. They can get a ransom for that pick, but doing so means they have to believe in Fields. I don't think Fields can win in this league, though.

[flere-imsaho]

The Fields situation is super-intriguing because the team last year was, by design, a completely hopeless tire fire. How do you evaluate a QB in that situation? I wonder how much of an analog Lawrence's first year in Jacksonville is, though that team hadn't been stripped for parts the way the Bears had.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

The Fields situation is super-intriguing because the team last year was, by design, a completely hopeless tire fire. How do you evaluate a QB in that situation? I wonder how much of an analog Lawrence's first year in Jacksonville is, though that team hadn't been stripped for parts the way the Bears had.

I totally agree. I think Justin Fields has Jalen Hurts type of potential meaning that if they could actually get some offensive talent around him - a good offensive line and some actual NFL receivers - I think it's possible that he could take his game to the next level. Hurts had arguably the best offensive line in football, two outstanding receivers in Smith and AJ Brown, a great tight end in Goddert, and decent group of running backs.

That's so much more than what Fields had at each and every position. Given the Bears' cap space, draft capital, and if Fields can take a big step forward in the pass game with more talent they could potentially turn this around pretty quick.

[bhlloy]

The fact that it’s even a discussion on Fields that the Bears could consider moving on shows how absurd the NFL QB dialogue is IMO. That you could pick a guy 11th overall, and seriously talk about cutting bait with him after 25 starts… it’s a mad game. Especially when he led the league in rushing YPA and showed a small growth in passing and you’ve just seen Jalen Hurts follow the exact same template.

With that being said, I’ll go to the mattresses to say that Zach Wilson is a bust and one of the worst QBs of the last 20 years. So maybe we all just see what we want to see. Sue me.

[miked]

I mean, Jared Goff is making 35M or something, and Matt Ryan was over 30M lat year. To think that Carr will struggle to get 25-30M seems a bit off. Probably not enough weapons to win in Carolina, but put him on the Jets, Saints, and maybe Bucs and he can probably challenge for the playoffs.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

The fact that it’s even a discussion on Fields that the Bears could consider moving on shows how absurd the NFL QB dialogue is IMO. That you could pick a guy 11th overall, and seriously talk about cutting bait with him after 25 starts… it’s a mad game. Especially when he led the league in rushing YPA and showed a small growth in passing and you’ve just seen Jalen Hurts follow the exact same template.

With that being said, I’ll go to the mattresses to say that Zach Wilson is a bust and one of the worst QBs of the last 20 years. So maybe we all just see what we want to see. Sue me.

An interesting philosophy. Obviously, you see the issue - we do evaluate quarterbacks at 25 starts (Wilson is at 22 starts and was picked 2nd overall). We have to. If you're not a top pick, you'll never even get near 25 starts unless you show you're worth it.

Fields made progress last season. So did Wilson. The problem with both is where they started from. Just as you are, I'm more likely to conclude that Wilson is a bust than Fields. In fact, I don't even disagree that Wilson is one of the very worst to get to 22 starts in the last 20 years.

Bad things happen when either throws the ball, but Fields is also a remarkable broken-field runner - his vision when doing this reminds me of Denard Robinson at Michigan before the injuries accumulated and he had to switch to running back when he went to the NFL. Can Fields avoid the hits accumulating that will make him even less accurate when he throws the ball?

There are five more quarterbacks in the 2021 class. Lance looks great when he's out there, but Desmond Ridder already has more NFL experience than he does. You have to hope that his injuries haven't already begun to accumulate as his touch rate was right up there at Fields' level.

Lawrence was terrible as a rookie, but obviously much improved last year and there's the narrative of Urban Meyer not running his staff professionally. Will he continue to improve, because as much as the 2022 version was light years ahead of 2021, it still was only average for an NFL quarterback? Signs point to yes there, so we look at Jacksonville as one of the teams that doesn't have questions right now.

Mac Jones had by far the best numbers as a rookie - it wasn't even close, but he regressed last year and there's also the immaturity issue. Bailey Zappe outplayed him in a brief appearance, but I don't think has the skills to do that on a starting basis in the NFL.

Then you have the second-rounder, Kyle Trask, who hasn't played because he was drafted to learn from Tom Brady. No idea there, but we haven't heard good buzz from Tampa Bay and I would expect them to go free agent as Trask is the only quarterback on their roster right now.

Finally, Davis Mills. A third rounder. One who seems perfectly fine as a backup, but isn't that close as a starter.

Back to the philosophy. Maybe it's the sports-radio/now Twitter and whatever passes for public commentary out there these days. Maybe it's how political debates work these days, but we tend to rate opinions by how confidently they're stated. How little room there is for nuance.

There's a value to that. Down the road, we can evaluate the confident ones because they make Decisions. You don't want a president or a head evaluator who is constantly wishy-washy. And you don't want someone who refuses to take any position much of the time.

Then you can, in theory, evaluate the evaluators. In politics and I suspect in the world of Twitter punditry, you shape that evaluation as well. "I was right about Justin Fields," you state just as confidently...

I've been caught up in it sometimes. I think I have a sense of when I've been right and when I've been wrong. I hope that isn't shaped too much by selective memory or wishful thinking.

But I think people would be happier if they didn't get so caught up because being an evaluator is a full-time responsibility. Obviously, I've written enough about Fields that if he succeeds, some of you might remember, "oh, you were very wrong about him..." and I'll own that. Truth is I don't know. I watch a lot of football, but I'm not disciplined about it. I'm not a scout, with an organized list of observations I need to make and the knowledge of how to look at a lot of tape and methodically go through that list, pick out the plays that demonstrate what constitutes a fair evaluation.

The NFL is not about originality in the end. Someone who can do some things very, very well (with Fields, it's these remarkably frequent chunk-play runs) breaks games until someone comes up with a defense to stop it. Then everyone will see that on film and copy that. Great players just go and do something else. Great pocket passers can "make all the throws." That's not just a physical thing with arm strength and accuracy, that's being able to read a defense and know which receiver will be open. Blitz the hell out of them and they read it and make that good decision even more quickly. Mediocre players keep doing what they do best and bad things happen when they try to adjust.

I think defenses will find a way to force Fields to pass and Chicago will need to draft yet another one (Trubisky obviously didn't get it done, either - he and Wentz seem like the same guy). And, like many, I think Lawrence will continue to improve and speed up his reads and become one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

With that being said, I’ll go to the mattresses to say that Zach Wilson is a bust and one of the worst QBs of the last 20 years. So maybe we all just see what we want to see. Sue me.

I suspect the difference is that Fields was playing on a team that was stripped for parts and Wilson was playing on a team with a lot of quality at all the positions. A team that would probably go deep in the playoffs with a competent QB.

[21C]

This is an interesting comparison of teams' facilities as judged by NFL players. The screenshot has one extra column that you need to scroll right on - you can see the original ratings at this page:
NFL Player Team Report Cards | NFLPA

[cuervo72]

Well, at least Washington has a good strength coach!

[GrantDawg]

Nolan Smith ran a 4.39 today. I imagine his draft stock just jump.

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