Bitcoin et al.

[Edward64]

Dug around a little more and found below site that tells you theoretically how much money you'll be making/losing based on CPU, GPU and kilowatt hour. Atlanta averages about .11 cents. My 750ti wasn't in the list so picked one I thought next best.

Basically I'll be losing about .25 cents a day in mining using Nicehash. No idea how accurate but it gives me a sense. May still do it to learn from the experience.

NiceHash - Leading Cryptocurrency Platform for Mining and Trading

[Hammer]

I think mining costs vary quite a bit, current average around $13k from what I hear. I have a small holding in the minor Cleanspark. Zero debt and clean energy. They mine 9.9 per day as an average.

I don't know much about mining, only that it isn't profitable for the guy on the street.

Just took some profits at $22.8k. 13% profit in to cash. Looking to plow 50% back in if and when we retest $17.5k. Then the rest if we hit $16k. Will go mainly in to ETH most likely and possibly a few alts. If we don't retest $17.5k I won't put it back in. No more buys for me unless me hit that mark.

I think this is a false breakout. Even if it.takes a few months I am guessing we retest $17.5k as a minimum. But it's all guesswork. Never come across anyone who can predict Bitcoin price accurately in the short term.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Hammer

I think this is a false breakout. Even if it.takes a few months I am guessing we retest $17.5k as a minimum. But it's all guesswork. Never come across anyone who can predict Bitcoin price accurately in the short term.

I'm getting that FOMO itch right now as Bitcoin has recovered some ... and I haven't even ordered my new Ledger yet

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm getting that FOMO itch right now as Bitcoin has recovered some ... and I haven't even ordered my new Ledger yet

Yeah, bitcoin has certain been on a good run for the last month or so. I have the FOMO itch too but also have the fear of being the greater fool.

[flere-imsaho]

We have solar panels, so I suppose it's theoretically profitable for me, but I'd have to build a specific rig for it and I don't know if I can be bothered.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

We have solar panels, so I suppose it's theoretically profitable for me, but I'd have to build a specific rig for it and I don't know if I can be bothered.

Do your solar panels generate excess electricity (e.g. you sell it back to the electric company)?

Also, can you share approx cost to set one up? Wife and I were talking about this if/when we get our next house in retirement.

[Kodos]

We have solar panels and for the last two months we've generated more electricity than we used, meaning we only paid the monthly service charge from Eversource ($22 or so). That's with us running the AC upstairs a fair amount and my father running the heat downstairs a fair amount (which drives me nuts).

I want to say our system was $20,000 or so when we bought it in 2016. Prices have likely come down since then, but so have solar rebates.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

We have solar panels and for the last two months we've generated more electricity than we used, meaning we only paid the monthly service charge from Eversource ($22 or so). That's with us running the AC upstairs a fair amount and my father running the heat downstairs a fair amount (which drives me nuts).

I want to say our system was $20,000 or so when we bought it in 2016. Prices have likely come down since then, but so have solar rebates.

So I guess in theory, if you wanted to setup a simple mining rig, you would not lose money in higher electric bills, but it'll take you longer to recoup the initial $20k investment.

BTW - bitcoin up 7%+ today

[Kodos]

Keep in mind, the generating excess electricity thing only happens for us for a 3-4 month window during the summer. The rest of the year, we use more than we generate, especially in the winter. So we bank some energy in the summer, but it quickly gets wiped out in the fall. So mining Bitcoin would ultimately still cost us money.

Our time horizon to recoup our initial investment was originally 10 years or so (so 2026), but that got pushed back some when we had to pay to remove and then reinstall some panels when we added on an office for my wife to our house last fall. Plus, the whole system was offline for about 6 months during the construction period (at least it happened during the lower-generation winter months). When we installed the panels, my first consideration was just to be more environmentally friendly in our power generation because our house is all run on electric power. The fact that it could ultimately save us money in the long term was also a big factor, but I was willing to take somewhat of a loss in the short-to-mid timeframe to do the right thing for the environment.

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I'm getting that FOMO itch right now as Bitcoin has recovered some ... and I haven't even ordered my new Ledger yet

My advice to you is swim against the tide. When people think the sky is falling, then you buy. Don't get caught up in the short term. The old buy the fear, sell the greed. Do the exact opposite of what most retail is doing. This has consistently worked for me.

I just set a limit order sell of further profits at $24,450.

Historically I would expect Spring 2023 to be the time when things start to turn around as the halving is about a year away. I would be really surprised if we don't see sub $20k before then again. I am selling because I believe I can lower my average price. If it keeps going up then okay, my original capital is still in the market and I have profits on top.

When the real FOMO starts in a year or 2 just make sure you don't get sucked in. Get your buying done in 2022/early 2023 and then leave it well alone.

[flere-imsaho]

We're in IL, and stuff varies state-by-state, so the solar details for me might be different from what's available in your own state.

Our panels send all of their energy to the grid, for which we get credits. So basically my bill shows how much we used from the grid and how much we sent ot the grid and either we pay for the delta or get a credit for the delta.

The system itself was ~40K, but over half of that came back in Federal and State tax incentives, plus an initial advance on solar credits. The company that did the installation estimated that we'd cover about 60% of our annual needs, and that looks on track so far.

We'll likely break even in less than 10 years, maybe even 5, which is a lot faster than even I was expecting.


My biggest piece of advice is to find a company (we used Sun Badger) who really explain the regulatory rules in your state and will take care of all of that for you, because otherwise you'll spend tens if not hundreds of hours dealing with bureaucracy.

[Kodos]

Yep. Ross Solar took care of that stuff for us too.

[Edward64]

Thanks both for the tips.

[Edward64]

An article this morning on what next for Celsius & Voyager customers. Essentially, a long and frustrating grind, likely ending up with very much less than what they hope for.

On one hand I feel bad for some because they were misled (e.g. Voyager saying they can weather the storm) but on the other hand, they must have known this was very risky and there were no guarantees.

'I have been in shock': Court letters reveal financial distress after Celsius, Voyager bankruptcies

[Hammer]

I think people that are deeply in to crypto understand the risk. But realistically most retail just jumps in without the necessary attention to detail and research. Hence why so many bought in 2021 and got crushed.

My take is that when the market is healthy to go after yield using a large exchange is low risk. To do it on a smaller platform in a Bear market is high risk.

I have chased the yield in the past, but I tend to go for short lockups. Strangely they often give better yields than long term lockups. I don't see the point of locking up your ADA for a year to get 12%. Firstly the risk of the platform blowing up, but also so if there is an upswing you can't sell.

I staked BNB and received 52% and 55% respectively. Also AXS which I got 104% on over 90 days (so 104/4 =26%).

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Edward64

An article this morning on what next for Celsius & Voyager customers. Essentially, a long and frustrating grind, likely ending up with very much less than what they hope for.

On one hand I feel bad for some because they were misled (e.g. Voyager saying they can weather the storm) but on the other hand, they must have known this was very risky and there were no guarantees.

'I have been in shock': Court letters reveal financial distress after Celsius, Voyager bankruptcies

I will be honest that I haven't followed any of this, but were they really a publicly traded company claiming to be FDIC insured when they were not? That would give me quite a bit more sympathy here for the customers if they were being led to believe that everything was insured...especially if the owners of this company also own a separate mining business (which it isn't really clear if this is included in the bankruptcy or not from the article.)

[Edward64]

I think what I read is what Voyager proclaimed could have been misinterpreted they were FDIC insured but if you read carefully, it did not really say they were.

[Edward64]

re: Bitcoin mining.

If I'm travelling and staying at hotels Mon-Thu, is it feasible to bring my personal laptop and run it throughout the 4 days? I have status and through my company, can get the upgraded internet for free.

Maybe have to run it through a VPN or is there a lot of network (unusual) activity that hotel internet providers check for?

[SirFozzie]

Stealing $190 million in little more than hours.

https://twitter.com/0xfoobar/status/1554269047176548353

(note: Not just one thief, apparently, hundreds of folks figured out how the hack had been done after it had been posted and did it themselves.)

[Edward64]

More hacking going on ...

Solana Wallets Targeted in Latest Multimillion Dollar Hack

The Solana ecosystem appears to be the victim of crypto’s latest exploit, with users reporting that their funds have been drained without their knowledge from major internet-connected “hot” wallets including Phantom, Slope and TrustWallet.

The attack is still ongoing, and over 8,000 wallets have been compromised thus far according to blockchain auditors OtterSec. Several Solana addresses have been linked to the attack (1, 2, 3, 4), with those wallets amassing at least $5 million worth of SOL, SPL, and other Solana-based tokens from unsuspecting users.

The exact cause of Tuesday evening's attack remained unclear throughout Tuesday night, though it appears to have predominantly impacted mobile wallet users. The attacker somehow obtained the ability to sign (ie. initiate and approve) transactions on the behalf of users, suggesting a trusted third-party service may have been compromised in a so-called supply chain attack

With all the talent out there in hacking crypto stuff, are Cold wallets really secure? Won't a simple key logging virus compromise a cold wallet?

It seems to me there needs to be a multi-factor authentication equivalent for all wallets/sites.

The attack will inevitably reignite a long-running debate around the security of hot wallets, which stay connected to the internet at all times in order to provide users a convenient way to send, store, and receive crypto. Cold wallets – USB drives that must be plugged into a computer to sign transactions – are heralded as a more secure, albeit less convenient, alternative

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I think what I read is what Voyager proclaimed could have been misinterpreted they were FDIC insured but if you read carefully, it did not really say they were.

Voyager put some of their assets into FDIC insured banks. So they made the claim that these deposits were safe from activities such as hacking. Of course their statements were carefully worded.

[Hammer]

Couple of significant events recently. Mt Gox Bitcoin is appears likely to hit the market in a few weeks. This would put downward pressure on price in the short term.

On the flip side Blackrock has confirmed it will offer Bitcoin to its clients in the future. $8.5 trillion under management. Just 1% finds its way in to Bitcoin and its off to the races. Medium to long term bullish on this development.

Biggest Bitcoin News of the Year:ARK vs IA Price Models - YouTube

[Edward64]

Small time coin but evidence of money laundering. Which leads me to wonder.

Let's say Marty & Wendy were using Bitcoin to launder some cartel money. So what happens when Bitcoin crashes from $60K to $24K? If they hodl, fair chance it'll eventually get back to $60K but will the cartel have the patience or is Marty & Wendy on the chopping block (literally)?

Tornado Cash Ethereum Token Down Over 50% After Sanctions - Decrypt

In its sanctioning of Tornado Cash, the U.S. Treasury cited its use by the North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group and the laundering of over $103.8 million from the hacks of the Horizon Harmony Bridge and Nomad Token Bridge earlier this summer.

Following a debate by the Tornado Cash community, the Discord server for the group disappeared, and unknown persons took the forum on the Tornado Cash community website offline as well. At the same time, a member of the developer group behind Tornado Cash was taken into custody by law enforcement in the Netherlands.

[Hammer]

Wouldn't make a lot of sense to do that. There would be a permanent record of all transactions on the blockchain. It would leave a paper trail the authorities can trace.

Something like Monero would do the job as transactions are anonymous. But I don't think it makes much sense to risk the hypothetical cartels money on an alt coin long term.

[Edward64]

Thanks. Googled more.

Interesting article on how government is tracking down the bitcoins stolen from the Bitfinex hack. Doesn't go into nitty gritty but does show the extent & capabilities to trace bitcoin transactions.

Access Denied

[Edward64]

Article on a crypto miner selling rigs to survive. What caught my eye was it also own power stations. There's probably others that own solar panel farms.

Bitcoin Mining Company Sells 26,200 Rigs to Eliminate $67M Debts | Tom's Hardware

A cryptomining company selling off its rigs doesn’t sound like a very hot investment. SDIG has a strength compared to many other miners, though, as it is vertically integrated. As well as owning and operating mining rigs, it owns and operates approximately 165 MW of power generation capacity. Its Scrubgrass and Panther Creek plants in Pennsylvania burn coal refuse, which is a waste byproduct of legacy coal mining operations for power and renewable energy credits.

SDIG stock. From a high of $27.46 back in 2H 2021 to $2.22 now. Quite a fall.

sdig stock - Google Search

[flere-imsaho]

coal refuse

Not enough to be greedy, must also be OK harming the environment and health standards as well.

[NobodyHere]

So what has caused bitcoin to slide 7.5% in the last 24 hours?

[Kodos]

The fact that you can’t really buy anything with it?

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

So what has caused bitcoin to slide 7.5% in the last 24 hours?

QUOTE=Hammer;3374515]Couple of significant events recently. Mt Gox Bitcoin is appears likely to hit the market in a few weeks. This would put downward pressure on price in the short term.[/quote]

This would be playing a part. I will be looking to deploy the cash from btc I sold around the $24k mark around $19-20k. I doubt we have the momentum to hit new lows any time soon. But I do expect to see a further move down from where we are now due to people receiving btc after waiting 8 years.

The recent Blackrock news is the biggest news of the year so far though. It will likely take a good few months for it to kick in, but combined with the early 2024 halving I would expect price to get moving mid to late 2023. Until then dont expect much to happen, in Bitcoin terms. I count 25% moves either way as not a lot happening.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This struck me as sensible. I quickly signed up on Coinbase that evening and bought $50 worth of something called Wrapped LUNA Token. I figured I'd try to quickly double my money with the dead cat bounce and have a nice steak dinner as a reward.

Well, the dead cat hadn't finished falling :-) My balance has been hovering between $3-$7 since then.

I guess I'm a buy-and-hold crypto investor now.

So I just checked on this, and I am up to $12. But it looks like I can’t sell WLUNA (classic wrapped Luna token) on Coinbase anymore.

On the theory that I might want to actually turn this back into money one day, is there any way to do that? Or am I just at the whim of Coinbase?

[Hammer]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

So I just checked on this, and I am up to $12. But it looks like I can’t sell WLUNA (classic wrapped Luna token) on Coinbase anymore.

On the theory that I might want to actually turn this back into money one day, is there any way to do that? Or am I just at the whim of Coinbase?

I would take a look at Poloniex or Uniswap. It could probably be done on one or both of those platforms. You could send your Luna to those platforms and then perform the transaction over there.

Very few exchanges will have anything to do with Luna now.

[albionmoonlight]

Thanks. For the sake of $12, I'll probably just let it sit for now and see if it goes back to $50. To the extent this was a learning experience, I learned that there are things to consider beyond just "will the price of this go up or down." Such as "will I be able to sell this on this platform" :-)

[Hammer]

Yeah 99%+ of crypto projects are garbage designed to suck in people new to the space. I think there are some which are likely to do well but nothing is for certain.

Luna was a high risk project, but I think it was made with good intentions. It was progressive tech, which was basically sabotaged by competitors IMO. However ultimately if it was that easy to bring down it was never going to last. I wouldn't touch it now, reputation is in tatters.

I bought a few hundred pounds worth at $5.50 and sold at $8.50. Thought I had done well. Then it went to $100 or so. Felt like an idiot. Then to basically 0 in a matter of months.

[Kodos]

Duh-duh-duh, another bites the dust.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/t...smid=share-url

Over the last two years, the 30-year-old entrepreneur gained a reputation as one of the smartest, most trusted figures in crypto. He built his cryptocurrency exchange FTX into a $32 billion company. He spent hundreds of millions of dollars to prop up other struggling crypto companies. And he became a major political donor to Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s presidential campaign as well as a frequent, welcome presence in the halls of Congress.

Then, in a matter of days his young empire collapsed, and it was Mr. Bankman-Fried who needed the bailout.

In a shocking implosion that was a hammer blow to the crypto market’s credibility, Mr. Bankman-Fried said on Tuesday that he planned to sell his suddenly struggling company to an archrival.

[Edward64]

And BTC and ETH down about 13% today

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Duh-duh-duh, another bites the dust.

Uh oh.

Binance backs out of FTX rescue, leaving the crypto exchange on the brink of collapse

[RainMaker]

Crypto exchange Binance helped Iranian firms trade $8 billion despite sanctions https://t.co/aOILPfQMml

— Barbara Slavin (@barbaraslavin1) November 9, 2022

[sterlingice]

Wait? So you're telling me that cryto is still mostly shady stuff and degenerate gamblers?

SI

[Edward64]

If you have crypto stored in FTX, hope you got it out.

Supposedly Binance and others are publishing "proof of reserves".

I'm guessing there is at least 1 former billionaire trying to find a place to hide out.

[Edward64]

I'm guessing another down the drain. Unsure how big they are.

BlockFi Review 2022: Pros, Cons and How It Compares - NerdWallet

Warning: BlockFi posted on Twitter on Nov. 10 that it would pause client withdrawals following the crypto exchange FTX's sudden crash. Previously, FTX was set to acquire BlockFi, and FTX.US had extended BlockFi a $400 million line of credit.

[SirFozzie]

As I said.. house of cards causing runs on other exchanges.

[Edward64]

I was curious so looked it up. Something tells me the accountants won't get any new business soon (unless it's like Sopranos or like).

Notably among FTX's advisors and business partners was the New Jersey office of accountant Prager Metis CPAs, LLC and San Ramon, CA's Armanino, LLP, which performed audits on FTX and FTX.US for fiscal 2021.

[miami_fan]

How do you audit cryptocurrency?

I am not familiar with cryptocurrency at all so it may be a simple process. I thought part of the appeal of cryptocurrency (decentralization, lack of traditional guidance) was that it was also near impossible to audit.

[Edward64]

Don't really know.

Maybe the auditors should have found/revealed the link between Alameda and FTX? Or provided some sort of "caution/opinion"? I suspect the auditors essentially turned a blind eye to peculiar items for their fee.

8 Days in November: What Led to FTX’s Sudden Collapse

Facts first uncovered by CoinDesk played a major role in the events of the past week. On Nov. 2, reporter Ian Allison published findings that roughly $5.8 billion out of $14.6 billion of assets on the balance sheet at Alameda Research, based on then-current valuations, were linked to FTX’s exchange token, FTT.

This finding, based on leaked internal documents, was explosive because of the very close relationship between Alameda and FTX. Both were founded by Bankman-Fried, and there has been significant anxiety about the extent and nature of their fraternal dealings. The FTT token was essentially created from thin air by FTX, inviting questions about the real-world, open-market value of FTT tokens held in reserve by affiliated entities.

The story apparently led to a "run on the bank"

But sometimes straightforward facts are enough to trigger an entirely justified bank run. Seemingly because of their known close ties, worries about Alameda’s balance sheet translated into a rapidly accelerating mass exodus from FTX. The exchange saw $6 billion in withdrawals in the 72 hours before things reached a head on the morning of Nov. 8, according to internal messages seen by Reuters.

[NobodyHere]

Man, when it rains it pours at FTX

FTX Says It Moved Remaining Funds to Cold Wallets to 'Mitigate Damage' After 'Unauthorized Transactions'

[NobodyHere]

Crypto Confidence Soars After CEO Defrauds Customers Just Like Real Bank

[Edward64]

Where have we heard this before?

Wouldn't be surprised if there was some funny stuff going on at Binance also.

Binance founder Changpeng 'CZ' Zhao wants to 'rebuild' crypto post FTX collapse | CNN Business

Binance founder and CEO Changpeng Zhao is once again in the global spotlight, this time as the self-appointed white knight of crypto as the industry is embroiled in crisis.

The Canadian billionaire has made headlines this week for offering to come to the aid of entrepreneurs who are facing a cash crunch, in efforts to help “rebuild” the sector.

[miami_fan]

Last year, Cade Cunningham signed a deal with BlockFi, receiving 100% of his signing bonus in bitcoin.

Now, BlockFi is preparing to file for bankruptcy, per @WSJ. pic.twitter.com/RE17FdpqAn

— Front Office Sports (@FOS) November 15, 2022

To be clear, they are talking about his signing bonus from the deal he signed with BlockFi. I was curious about other athletes and found this from earlier this year.

7 Pro Athletes Taking a Big Risk With Bitcoin Crypto Salary

[Edward64]

Hopefully he was smart enough to move some/all of that bonus into a cold wallet.