2011-12 MLB Offseason Thread: Tigers are really stupid

[Toddzilla]

Cardinals interviewing Ryne Sandberg for their managerial opening.

If this comes to pass, as a Cubs fan, I will cry for a long long long time.

[markprior22]

Huge Cubs fan....I'm way past the sentimentality of an ex player who was never on a WS team and hardly opened his mouth the entire time he was a Cub. He was a tremendous hall of fame player who provided me with many, many fond memories but, if he's not the guy, then he's not the guy. I wish him well in his managerial career but if he isn't who Theo wants, it's far better to give the whole issue closure than to keep stringing him along. I'm so ready for big boy baseball on the north side of chicago. Make all the Cub jokes you want, but in a few years, we'll finally get a taste of the WS. Wish opening day was tomorrow!

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by markprior22

...Make all the Cub jokes you want, but in a few years, we'll finally get a taste of the WS. Wish opening day was in a few years!

fixed

[stevew]

Baseball’s Most Expensive Draft Bust | FanGraphs Baseball

I'm sure Brackman will get another chance somewhere.

[Ksyrup]

I kinda hope Theo hires Francona to be the Cubs manager. That way they can bring back those Harry Caray "Cubs fan, Bud man" commercials.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I kinda hope Theo hires Francona to be the Cubs manager. That way they can bring back those Harry Caray "Cubs fan, Bud man" commercials.

I loved those commercials. I actually had a t-shirt with his face and a Budweiser on it.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by lungs

And whatsup with UZR having Carlos Lee so high this year in LF?????

It's called "Wow, Fielding Metrics still have a long way to go"

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Single year fielding metrics are pretty bad. I think the accepted rule for UZR is 3 years for everything to normalize.

I realize that but it's a bit of a cop out answer, particularly since we start seeing WAR thrown around *a lot* as shorthand for value of a player. How useful is WAR if a significant portion of the value is not reliable without 3 years of data.

At least batting stats tend to normalize after a year, for the most part (not BABIP or BA):
When Samples Become Reliable | FanGraphs Baseball

SI

[RomaGoth]

Potential Jim Thome to Phillies sighting:

Report: Phillies to sign Jim Thome to one-year deal - MLB - Sporting News

[Ksyrup]

How horrible is the Orioles organization? Just when you thought it couldn't get worse, they've been totally embarrassed, being turned down multiple times by no-name (at least to mostfans) young guys who would rather wait for a better situation than have their one shot ruined by the Angelos Effect. Even Allard Baird turned them down. So now they've just given up and gone for a guy who would likely never get another shot, so they know he'll take it - Dan Duquette.

If he were to pull out, I think Jim Bowden is next.

[BishopMVP]

The management team for this winter's major Cuban defection - CF Younis Cespedes - just released their promotional video.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Jonathan Sanchez traded for Melky Cabrera (and maybe Verdugo?). I can't stand this move - Cabrera has never done anything like last season, and now he'll be playing his poor defense in the large OF of AT&T Park. Ugh.

[Ksyrup]

Wow. Huge deal for KC. Not only do they get a starting pitcher they desperately need, but they move a crappy vet OF and open up a spot for Cain. I'm almost stunned at what appears to be a good deal of foresight on the part of KC. Now the Francouer signing doesn't look that awful, since they are opening up a spot for a younger, cheaper, and better OF.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Jonathan Sanchez traded for Melky Cabrera (and maybe Verdugo?). I can't stand this move - Cabrera has never done anything like last season, and now he'll be playing his poor defense in the large OF of AT&T Park. Ugh.

Look at the bright side. At least his poor defense will be limited to the smaller area he can cover.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

How good is Sanchez, really? I mean, I think KC did alright for themselves, but I don't think it's robbery.

[Chief Rum]

Rumor out there on MLBTraderumors that the Mets are exploring a David Wright for Peter Bourjos deal.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

How good is Sanchez, really? I mean, I think KC did alright for themselves, but I don't think it's robbery.

He's a solid starter, and Melky Cabrera is Melky Cabrera.

Maybe I'm basing this more on how little I think of Melky Cabrera than how great I think Sanchez is. They desperately need starting pitching, so if he gives them 175 innings and anywhere near league-average pitching, it's a huge win.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Rumor out there on MLBTraderumors that the Mets are exploring a David Wright for Peter Bourjos deal.

Just kill me.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Sanchez is Randy Johnson before he got good. Lefty with absolutely filthy stuff and very little control. He's led the league in walks in consecutive years, but he has a ridiculous strikeout rate and has a no-hitter under his belt.

[TRO]

Bought low on Sanchez and sold high on Cabrera.

I'm ecstatic.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Meanwhile in Atlanta we scratch our heads & wonder how a guy who was released from one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball just got flipped for a legit LH starting pitcher.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Sanchez is Randy Johnson before he got good. Lefty with absolutely filthy stuff and very little control. He's led the league in walks in consecutive years, but he has a ridiculous strikeout rate and has a no-hitter under his belt.

GAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[LloydLungs]

Bill Smith out as Twins GM. I think the nation was just starting to figure out that the Twins aren't the well-run little "small market team that could" that they used to be.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Timing very odd on that. Shouldn't they be contacting FAs right now?

[LloydLungs]

Terry Ryan is coming in as interim presumably to handle this offseason. I'm sure they would like him to be permanent. He's the guy that gave them the "small market that could" rep that Smith was blowing to smithereens.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Timing very odd on that. Shouldn't they be contacting FAs right now?

Out-of-work GMs are technically free agents, right?

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by TRO

Bought low on Sanchez and sold high on Cabrera.

I'm ecstatic.

Exactly.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Meanwhile in Atlanta we scratch our heads & wonder how a guy who was released from one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball just got flipped for a legit LH starting pitcher.

Exactly.

[dawgfan]

Dave Cameron making the argument that Sanchez probably doesn't have the high ceiling some seem to think...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...good-as-his-k/

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by LloydLungs

Terry Ryan is coming in as interim presumably to handle this offseason. I'm sure they would like him to be permanent. He's the guy that gave them the "small market that could" rep that Smith was blowing to smithereens.

+1.

Smith is a lost cause.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Timing very odd on that. Shouldn't they be contacting FAs right now?

Its the Twins. They dont sign free agents until everyone else has picked out what they want.

[Atocep]

I there's a bit of an overreaction to the Sanchez trade.

First, Sanchez isn't Randy Johnson. Randy Johnson's problems were created by his height. What's Sanchez's excuse? To me he's far closer to Oliver Perez than he is to Randy.

He also throws in the low 90s. His margin for error will always be far lower than Randy's was. At age 28 Randy had just completed his 3rd year with a VORP of 25 or higher, had completed his 3rd year with 200+ innings pitched, and his 2nd year with 225+ strikeouts. Sanchez has zero years with with a VORP over 25, zero years with 200 innings pitched and has one year with more than 200 strikeouts.

I think people were thrown off by Sanchez's 2010 season where he seemed to take a step forward with an ERA of 3.07, but his FIP was 4.09; more or less in line with the rest of his career.

Now he's moving to the more difficult league.

Not a bad trade for either team IMO. Both teams fill needs here and both gets players with solid upsides that have been inconsistent up until now.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Not a bad trade for either team IMO. Both teams fill needs here and both gets players with solid upsides that have been inconsistent up until now.

I think the trade will help both team so from that angle they both did well. The problem I have with it is that I think the Giants could have gotten a lot more. Teams need pitching and that will never change.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I think the trade will help both team so from that angle they both did well. The problem I have with it is that I think the Giants could have gotten a lot more. Teams need pitching and that will never change.

How many teams would be willing to give up more than Melky for a pitcher with a quality start rate of 37% over the last 3 years and will be a free agent at the end of next season?

If Sanchez was under club control for 2+ years I could see his asking price being higher. With his track record and just 1 season of control they got fair value IMO.

[AENeuman]

Glad Shawn Estes Jr is gone, may just need a change. I hope that this is a cheap, adequate move that gives Sabean more ability to get a big name FA.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

How many teams would be willing to give up more than Melky for a pitcher with a quality start rate of 37% over the last 3 years and will be a free agent at the end of next season?

If Sanchez was under club control for 2+ years I could see his asking price being higher. With his track record and just 1 season of control they got fair value IMO.

They might not have been able to fool you but a lot of GMs are stupid and could be sold on his upside I think.

I know the Giants are in win now mode so waiting isnt really an option but around July 30th of each year the value of pitchers is never higher. I would have considered waiting.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Bonuses of the trade:

-Much more likely that the Giants don't put money toward someone like Coco Crisp.
-This is essentially a payroll-neutral deal; the offense is improved, and the Giants still have the same budget available to further improve it.
-The lead off hole that Beltran pointedly noticed near the end of last year has been "filled."

Negatives:
-There really wasn't a hole in CF. Torres is worth it nearly on defense alone, and if he could get back to his 2010 form (highly unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility), cheap high upside player.
-The pitching staff is way, way thinner now. Vogelsong is no sure thing to reproduce last season, and if there are any injuries now it's straight to Surkamp, who is Barry Zito Jr.
-Sanchez was really the only 'expendable' trade chip the Giants had - and they still have massive holes at Shortstop and Power Hitting corner OF.

Really unhappy with the trade.

[mckerney]

Twins dismiss GM Smith, return Ryan as interim | Minnesota Public Radio News

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by TRO

Bought low on Sanchez and sold high on Cabrera.

I'm ecstatic.

+1

Sanchez could totally blow up and keep getting wilder while Cabrera's 2011 is his new normal and it might end up being a loss in hindsight. But it looks like a good trade now- position of strength for position of weakness and I don't think the Royals were going to get much for 1 year of Melky Cabrera.

Also, as one poster at RR put it, it (hopefully) keeps GMDM from doing something dumber like Cain and Myers for Jurrjens and Prado or whatever that rumor was.

SI

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

Bonuses of the trade:

-Much more likely that the Giants don't put money toward someone like Coco Crisp.
-This is essentially a payroll-neutral deal; the offense is improved, and the Giants still have the same budget available to further improve it.
-The lead off hole that Beltran pointedly noticed near the end of last year has been "filled."

Negatives:
-There really wasn't a hole in CF. Torres is worth it nearly on defense alone, and if he could get back to his 2010 form (highly unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility), cheap high upside player.
-The pitching staff is way, way thinner now. Vogelsong is no sure thing to reproduce last season, and if there are any injuries now it's straight to Surkamp, who is Barry Zito Jr.
-Sanchez was really the only 'expendable' trade chip the Giants had - and they still have massive holes at Shortstop and Power Hitting corner OF.

Really unhappy with the trade.

I'd argue whether the offense was improved. I mean, improved over a released Aaron Rowland? Sure. But Melky's likely not going to repeat those numbers. Maybe the move to the NL will offset the park change, I don't know. But I'll be shocked if he comes close to those numbers again.

That was his first year with an OPS+ above 95 - a career year by far - and he turned 27 during the year, which is the usual hitter peak. I'm not sure what Brian Sabean sees here.

And then there's this kind of stupid speak, which I just despise:

Bruce Bochy’s assessment: “He’s the type of player we need on this ballclub. He’s a run producer. He scores runs and also has the ability to knock in runs. He’s 27 years old and it looks like he’s coming into his own.

(a) RBIs are irrelevant, but even if you treat this as code for "he's a slugger," he's only had 2 years with a SLG % above .390! (b) Scoring runs is largely a function of getting on base and who hits behind you, and the Royals have some good young hitters finally. But he also spent 4 years with the Yankees and didn't get on base enough to score more than 75 runs in a year. His career OBP is .331, and his career high was in his rookie year. (c) 27 year olds typically begin to decline, not "come into their own." That's not to say they won't squeeze another .750-.800 OPS season out of him, but I wouldn't count on it.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I'm not all that excited about the likelihood of Melky repeating 2011, but he IS replacing Rowand and Torres, who was decidedly worse in 2011 than 2010. The problem is even a bad Torres is probably not going to be THAT much worse than Melky, and his defense is gold-glove caliber. And if they were to have been comfortable with Torres, they could have used Sanchez to improve elsewhere.

As not-good as Cabrera is, he IS an improvement, if only because the Giants sucked so bad at CF last year.

[JediKooter]

Well, the Padres are giving out a sigh of relief now that Jonathan Sanchez is now a Royal. The Giants pitching staff just got better in my opinion by dumping the head case that Sanchez is, however, they will probably miss him beating the only team he pitched well against.

[sterlingice]

Well, in the Royals rotation, he replaces, um... what does our rotation look like again.

Let's see:
Luke Hochevar
Felipe Paulino
Danny Duffy
Bruce Chen- oh wait, hopefully they offer him arby and not stupidly give a 2 year contract; that way we either get the type B comp or get him for a one year deal
Sean O Sullivan? Vin Mazzaro? It's pretty bleak down here and it's not like the top of this list was worth much.

SI

[Comey]

It's now being reported by CSNPhilly that the Phillies and Jonathan Papelbon have reached an agreement, pending physical. Jim Bowden is reporting that it's not done, but talks are very serious. Contract terms are reported to be in the neighborhood of 4yrs/50m.

Of course, given the phantom contract agreement with Ryan Madson, who knows if this is really going down...

[molson]

I'd be sad to see him go, but it's a lot of money for 60 innings a year (and many of those innings are 9th innings with a 2 or 3 run lead, because you gotta build up a guy's save numbers...for some reason)

Of course, if the Sox desperately overpay someone to throw the same 60 innings, less effectively, but for comparable money....then the move is even worse.

[Ksyrup]

What a bunch of schmucks.

it's enough to make me withdraw from being a Phillies fan. And this is the team that employed Brad Lidge, who went from basket case to unhittable to injured in the span of like 27 months. If any team should understand the perils of paying a closer that kind of money, you'd think it would be them.

Between this and the Howard contract, I will soon be rooting full-time for the Tigers and another team of my choice.

[Comey]

I'm on the fence about this. On one hand, he's the best closer on the market, and the club really has nobody who can step into the role. And their window for World Series contention is, at least, two more seasons. If he can help deliver another title in the next two years, then great.

On the other hand...really? $50m to someone who won't throw that many innings? What the hell are you going to pay Cuddyer, exactly? Does that put an end to that idea? I hope not...if anyone needs Cuddyer, it's the Phillies. It's incredibly frustrating.

I wouldn't go so far as to disown the team, as Ksyrup (it's their money, after all). But this is very, very risky. Unless they're bringing Lidge back on the cheap as a setup guy, they're putting all their eggs into one basket, and handcuffing themselves in other areas.

[Ksyrup]

How about a SS? Or a real 3B? A closer isn't THAT big a deal - really. When the Twins lost Nathan to injury, they lost maybe 2-3 wins. Maybe. People were predicting they were going to go from 1st to last just because they lost him. Ridiculous.

I'm starting to get the affliction many SABR-minded Royals fans have had for years, which JoePoz wrote about, which is that it's hard to root for a team that philosophically stands for things you don't believe and know to be wrong. They are way too anti-stats and pro-scouts an organization for my comfort, and we're starting to see that in the decisions they make. They are going to be the mini-Yankees, pre-Cashman. Recipe for disaster, if they don't have a sudden run of luck with their farm system to make up for the big money mistakes.

[molson]

I think if you use Papelbon for more like 80 innings, but don't care about saves and you him in the most important, late inning situations against the best hitters....it's a valuable piece. Francona did utilize Papelbon like that, at least to some degree, a few years ago, but seemed to move away from it.