NFL Playoffs - Conference Round

[Dutch]

Cam Newton vs The Sheriff

Why is Peyton Manning’s nickname 'The Sheriff’? - SBNation.com

[molson]

The Broncos got 20 QB hits, which is the most of any team in a game since 2006. Brady was only hit 18 times in the entire playoffs last year. It was really fortunate that he got through this season without being injured.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by TroyF

1) It took me far to long to appreciate Brady. Even in his early Super Bowls he was better than I gave him credit for.

2) It took me to long to appreciate what I was watching in these Brady/Manning games. Instead of being caught up in who was better, I didn't pay attention to the fact I was watching 2 of the greatest ever duel.

3) With a gun to my head, two average coaches, two average skill position talent levels across the rest of their teams, I take Manning.

4) If someone has the opinion of, but, but, but Super Bowls. . . I'll just point out that I would take Manning over Bradshaw, the other Manning, Bart Starr, and Troy Aikman too.

5) That doesn't mean I don't have respect for Brady. I don't like the guy. . . but what a damned player. If Stewart had been in the game yesterday, that pass to Gronk down the seam never gets completed. But Brady knew he wasn't in the game and the throw he made was stunning. Simply stunning.

Like you, I don't like Brady. But he is one hell of a QB, and I have to respect his never-say-die attitude. He is a tough out. I was not comfortable until the onside kick was recovered. I've seen him pull too many rabbits out of hats over the years.

Really, yesterday's game was the opposite of what we usually get in Manning-Brady games. This time, Manning had the superior defense that shut down much of what Brady wanted to do. Often in the past, the Patriots have had a superior defense that shut down Manning's receivers with physical play. Even the greats crumble under constant pressure or when no receivers are coming open.

Yesterday, the Pats were not getting the small breaks that add up to wins that they have gotten so often in the past. How many receptions did James White just barely miss yesterday? It seems like Manning has usually been the one dealing with a kicker's failure or a drop or near misses. It was nice to see the script flipped.

It'll be a sad day for me when Peyton hangs 'em up. And I think he should after this season, regardless of what happens in the Super Bowl. Time catches up to us all. Even the greats.

[Kodos]

[bhlloy]

Sounds like Davis had surgery already and is trying to get back for the game. Doesn't sound doable to me but I guess I don't have any info on how severe the break was

[jbergey22]

What is it about Brady that make people not like him? Seems to fit the American hero criteria to me. Underdog, hard working, clutch performer, winner. Is it because he married models and wins a lot of football games?

[Kodos]

For me, it's the constant begging for calls, along with some of his off-field stuff. (Knocking up girlfriend, dumping her for a super model for instance.)

"We're only gonna score 17 points?"

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is it about Brady that make people not like him? Seems to fit the American hero criteria to me. Underdog, hard working, clutch performer, winner. Is it because he married models and wins a lot of football games?

It's that he comes across as a self-entitled above the law punk. Whines about everything that doesn't go his way, nothing is his fault. That is not all-American hero type; that is royal douchebag type.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is it about Brady that make people not like him? Seems to fit the American hero criteria to me. Underdog, hard working, clutch performer, winner. Is it because he married models and wins a lot of football games?

Can't speak for everyone but Bill Simmons fuels my dislike of him and most things Boston. (And I am a fan of Simmons) The two years he has been my fantasy QB I have loved him.

[Abe Sargent]

I agree he seems very entitled and a bit of a pirck. Now to be fair to Brady, there are some other QBs strike me as worse than Brady in that regard (Cutler/Rivers). But Brady counts too.

[albionmoonlight]

If Denver loses the Super Bowl, it will get lost to history, but for whatever it is worth, Wade Phillips just called one of the best games I've ever seen by a coordinator.

[jeff061]

Maybe I haven't gotten the full details, but dropping everyone back into coverage to clog up the timing routes and rushing 3/4 against a college level o-line isn't really a stroke of genius. I believe I said that would be the best way to go about it before the game even started. If Edelman couldn't get open for timing routes it would be game over, because they can't run and they can't go down field with their offensive line. No team had prevented Edelman from tearing them up on 1 second drop backs until now.

Denver had a fairly obvious game plan and executed it perfectly.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Maybe I haven't gotten the full details, but dropping everyone back into coverage to clog up the timing routes and rushing 3/4 against a college level o-line isn't really a stroke of genius. I believe I said that would be the best way to go about it before the game even started. If Edelman couldn't get open for timing routes it would be game over, because they can't run and they can't go down field with their offensive line. No team had prevented Edelman from tearing them up on 1 second drop backs until now.

Denver had a fairly obvious game plan and executed it perfectly.

I could not disagree more with this. The "obvious" gameplan was to rush 3 guys on Brady 15 times? Or when the Broncos did blitz, how perfectly timed were they? Was it "obvious" to drop Miller into coverage on Gronk which surprised the hell out of Brady?

Don't get me wrong, the Patriots did make it easy with their lack of a running game. (something I pointed out before and during the game)

Even with that, the timing of the calls, the changeups he gave Brady throughout the day and the changing schemes they used were sensational. If the gameplan was so easy going in, why did everyone in the world think the Patriots would win the game?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

If the gameplan was so easy going in, why did everyone in the world think the Patriots would win the game?

It was much more balanced than this. Most of ESPN's talking heads thought New England would win which is usually the auto sign that the opposite team would win. The betting action was split down the middle at 3 points even dropping the line a half point to 3.

Anyone that had paid attention to New Englands offensive line struggles had to know this was not going to be any cupcake game for them. Mixing that in with the home field advantage and high altitude this game had pick em all over it.

[jeff061]

Because the Broncos executed the plan better than most people thought they could against the Pats. Just because a strategy is obvious doesn't mean everyone can execute it well enough to win.

It's like the tired old "Blueprint for beating Brady"(this goes back years, not this season/game), "If you can rush 4 and pressure him that's how to win". Well no shit, that applies to every single QB in the league, but most teams can't rush 4 and consistently pressure the QB.

This year just about every team was able to do that against the Pats, but Edelman was consistently getting open inside 2 seconds on timing routes and that was the gameplan to cover for a line that could neither run nor pass block. Even with Gronk in the game, if Edelman was injured not only did the offense struggle but the entire game plan was changed.

The Broncos were the first team all season to keep Edelman in check. With that being the case, they could tee off Brady just like basement teams were doing when Edelman was injured.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

It was much more balanced than this. Most of ESPN's talking heads thought New England would win which is usually the auto sign that the opposite team would win. The betting action was split down the middle at 3 points even dropping the line a half point to 3.

Anyone that had paid attention to New Englands offensive line struggles had to know this was not going to be any cupcake game for them. Mixing that in with the home field advantage and high altitude this game had pick em all over it.

I think Tony Gonzalez was the only one of the CBS bunch who picked DEN (and the only one who picked CAR too, IIRC).

[jeff061]

Also, for what it's worth. I'm kind of surprised people are giving Belichick flack for not taking the FG. Hindsight 20/20, obviously the outcome would have been better. But Denver was consistently shutting their offense down all game, I'd take the odds of picking up that 4th and punching it in over driving 80 yards.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is it about Brady that make people not like him? Seems to fit the American hero criteria to me. Underdog, hard working, clutch performer, winner. Is it because he married models and wins a lot of football games?

What others have said. What was stunning yesterday is that he didn't whine to the refs. It was quite shocking, because the first times these teams played he was crying to them the entire game. Every single time he got hit in that first game he was bawling.

The other thing that bothers me is the whole ANGRY Brady persona he gives off and half the world buys into. Brady isn't happy about "pick topic" so everyone better watch out. Really? Are we all in grade school?

Do a search for "Angry Brady" and you'll find about 1.5 million topics. I remember when Brady came into Denver during the Tebow era, rushed for a TD and made sure everyone in the world knew he was better than Tim Tebow. He is "enraged" at Deflategate so the rest of the NFL needs to worry. He has never been so angry after a loss (the first Denver game this year, his words by the way) The Broncos talked some trash to Brady this week, that's not a good idea, you don't want to make Brady mad.

Ugh. Enough. I know it is what drives him, just like Rhonda Rousey is driven by any sign of disrespect. That's wonderful, but I end up not liking those people. I get really sick of hearing how angry they are all the time

Note: The above is an opinion, nothing more, nothing less. That opinion doesn't impact what I think of Brady the QB. I did not say in the above "I hate Tom Brady, so therefore he's the 75th ranked QB in history" I just said I don't like him. I think Brady gets through his days just fine without my fan mail, so it's all good.

[jeff061]

You guys just wait until Brady retires and he's known for his high profile snake oil selling business. Which he's already laid the groundwork for. You don't know what hate is yet.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by jeff061

You guys just wait until Brady retires and he's known for his high profile snake oil selling business. Which he's already laid the groundwork for. You don't know what hate is yet.

That won't come until after he serves as Trump's VP.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

It was much more balanced than this. Most of ESPN's talking heads thought New England would win which is usually the auto sign that the opposite team would win. The betting action was split down the middle at 3 points even dropping the line a half point to 3.

Anyone that had paid attention to New Englands offensive line struggles had to know this was not going to be any cupcake game for them. Mixing that in with the home field advantage and high altitude this game had pick em all over it.

Denver was a 3 point underdog on their home field. The sharps went with Denver when the line was pushed to 3.5 and forced the casinos to drop it back to 3. There was a huge article on ESPN about the money coming in on the Patriots.

When it came to any expert talking heads, it was well over 80% to the Patriots. Pro Football Focus (2 of 11 predictors picked the Broncos), LA Times, Arizona times, Pro football talk, Football Insiders. . . I could go on and on and on.

Look, this isn't me crying about any of that. The Patriots were 3 point favorites on the road against a team who beat them earlier in the year and had the #1 ranked defense in the league. I felt the Patriots would win the game. But I think it's amusing that it's being spun that it was close to even. It was not being spun that way at all.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Denver was a 3 point underdog on their home field. The sharps went with Denver when the line was pushed to 3.5 and forced the casinos to drop it back to 3. There was a huge article on ESPN about the money coming in on the Patriots.

When it came to any expert talking heads, it was well over 80% to the Patriots. Pro Football Focus (2 of 11 predictors picked the Broncos), LA Times, Arizona times, Pro football talk, Football Insiders. . . I could go on and on and on.

Look, this isn't me crying about any of that. The Patriots were 3 point favorites on the road against a team who beat them earlier in the year and had the #1 ranked defense in the league. I felt the Patriots would win the game. But I think it's amusing that it's being spun that it was close to even. It was not being spun that way at all.

IF everyone and their mother were on the Pats(articles people read and shows people watch) yet the line drops from 3.5 down to 3 it should tell you all you need the know. The opinions were more balanced than you think. Not everyone follows them shows or base their opinions on what them people say.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

IF everyone and their mother were on the Pats(articles people read and shows people watch) yet the line drops from 3.5 down to 3 it should tell you all you need the know. The opinions were more balanced than you think. Not everyone follows them shows or base their opinions on what them people say.

It went down to 3 due to the sharps, the professional gamblers. Of the public picks, well over 80% went for the Patriots. That's all. A vast majority of people (bettors and fans and experts alike) felt the Patriots were going to win that football game. To spin that any other way is simply wrong.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

It went down to 3 due to the sharps, the professional gamblers. Of the public picks, well over 80% went for the Patriots. That's all. A vast majority of people (bettors and fans and experts alike) felt the Patriots were going to win that football game. To spin that any other way is simply wrong.

The offshore sportsbooks had 53 percent of the bets placed on New England, 47 percent on Denver. Source sportsinsights.com

Most of our traditional sharp money indicators point towards value on the Broncos, but those offshore money percentages are fairly disconcerting. Whenever there is this level of contradicting information, the best course of action is usually to lay off. That said, it will be interesting to see whether there is immediate buy back if market-setting books offer Denver +3.5.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The offshore sportsbooks had 53 percent of the bets placed on New England, 47 percent on Denver. Source sportsinsights.com

And was that straight up or with the spread? All 47% of bettors who placed bets on the Broncos didn't think they would win the football game. If they bet early and got on the 3.5 train, a lot of them (including the sharps) thought the game would be within a FG.

We should have taken a poll on here. My guess is 80% of FOFC would have picked New England. Most of the other experts who put themselves out publicly picked the Patriots. Maybe my perception is wrong, but I certainly didn't get the vibe around what I saw that the Broncos had much of a chance.

If your opinion is 47% of the public thought the Broncos would win the game, I'll just have to say that isn't my experience at all and be done with this.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by TroyF

And was that straight up or with the spread? All 47% of bettors who placed bets on the Broncos didn't think they would win the football game. If they bet early and got on the 3.5 train, a lot of them (including the sharps) thought the game would be within a FG.

We should have taken a poll on here. My guess is 80% of FOFC would have picked New England. Most of the other experts who put themselves out publicly picked the Patriots. Maybe my perception is wrong, but I certainly didn't get the vibe around what I saw that the Broncos had much of a chance.

If your opinion is 47% of the public thought the Broncos would win the game, I'll just have to say that isn't my experience at all and be done with this.

I am not saying people as in you yourself. But people get caught up into anything ESPN says and that floods the market with that idea. I am sure the majority of people did think New England would win straight up but there are still some level headed people out there that dont just follow the crowd.

66 percent were on New England ML, 59 percent on the over in that game. For comparison 66 percent bet on Carolina and 56 percent were on the under.

Cris Carter was the only ESPN guy I heard making a case for a Denver win which I thought was ridiculous. Denver is one of the hardest places to win in all of sports because of the altitude and not being used to it. Being the #1 seed in their home stadium just struck me as odd with all of these "experts" apparently putting no stock in home field advantage. The way ESPN talked it was the Browns going into New England for the AFC Championship.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I am not saying people as in you yourself. But people get caught up into anything ESPN says and that floods the market with that idea. I am sure the majority of people did think New England would win straight up but there are still some level headed people out there that dont just follow the crowd.

66 percent were on New England ML, 59 percent on the over in that game. For comparison 66 percent bet on Carolina and 56 percent were on the under.

Cris Carter was the only ESPN guy I heard making a case for a Denver win which I thought was ridiculous. Denver is one of the hardest places to win in all of sports because of the altitude and not being used to it. Being the #1 seed in their home stadium just struck me as odd with all of these "experts" apparently putting no stock in home field advantage. The way ESPN talked it was the Browns going into New England for the AFC Championship.

Again, it wasn't just ESPN. A vast majority of the internet "experts" were picking the Patriots like it was a given. Mark Schlereth, a former Bronco player, said he would be SHOCKED if Denver won the football game.

I read other "experts" who were saying the same things. I was shocked at the amount of people who thought that not only would the Patriots win the game, they would blow the Broncos out. It was pretty stunning to me.

It also bothered a lot of the Broncos players. A quote from TJ Ward:

"We felt like we were totally disrespected by everybody in the media," safety T.J. Ward said, via Andrew Mason of the team website. "I don't think I heard one telecast about us winning. And as good a defense as we've been playing all year, that was the focal point: that Tom Brady was going to shred us apart. So we took total disrespect to that. Total disrespect."

That isn't why Denver won the game. But if you believe in that sort of thing, as pissed off as Brady was at the league and at the first Broncos game, the Broncos were just as pissed off the other way.

[TroyF]

Kodos,

17 MPH. SEVENTEEN MPH.

Latimer had quite the game on special teams by the way.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by TroyF

My guess is 80% of FOFC would have picked New England.

Count me in that group.

[flere-imsaho]

Hey guys, data!

Tom Brady Couldn’t Take The Pressure | FiveThirtyEight

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by TroyF

My guess is 80% of FOFC would have picked New England.

Not me, but only because I approach every New England playoff game with a fatalistic sense of doom.

[albionmoonlight]

I thought the Pats were going to win. I would have bet them at -3.5 without hesitation. Heck, I was all ready to come onto FOFC and post my theory that injuries have become such a part of the NFL that all that really matters is who is healthiest come January.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by TroyF

Kodos,

17 MPH. SEVENTEEN MPH.

Latimer had quite the game on special teams by the way.

Yeah, Latimer has been really good on special teams. He caused at least two fumbles by punt returners this season. He's going the Terrell Davis route of making enough plays on special teams to earn some snaps on offense.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Not me, but only because I approach every New England playoff game with a fatalistic sense of doom.

During one of the great post-season runs by a franchise in NFL history? That must make you feel really really disconnected from reality.

[flere-imsaho]

I didn't say I was being rational.

One of the great things about sports fandom is that if you're absolutely normal in all (or most) other ways, it gives you temporary license to be completely inexplicable. At least that's my excuse and I'm sticking with it.

[molson]

And every team, even the Patriots, are going to end most of their seasons with a loss short of the championship. I find its much more satisfying to be a sports fan who generally assumes the worst and is pleasantly surprised with any success.