The Stock Market thread

[Edward64]

Is renting cheaper?

I know in some areas it makes more sense to own nowadays.

[Edward64]

Glad to see the saga end, hope this is the last of the contagion. Let's have Elizabeth Warren do her thing with regulations.

SVB --> Signature --> Credit Suisse --> First Republic

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/01/firs...k-failure.html

JPMorgan acquired all of First Republic’s deposits and a “substantial majority of assets.”
:
JPMorgan is getting about $92 billion in deposits in the deal, which includes the $30 billion that it and other large banks put into First Republic last month. The bank is taking on $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities as well.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation agreed to share losses on mortgages and commercial loans that JPMorgan assumed in the transaction, and also provided it with a $50 billion credit line.

JPMorgan said it was making a payment of $10.6B to the FDIC.

PSA: was wondering which bank may be next. From a CNN article on Mar 16, FRC was identified. And after it ...

On Thursday, Fitch put Western Alliance bank (WAL) on notice, saying its credit rating could fall if customers continued to pull money out of the bank. Shares of Western Alliance, a regional bank like SVB, fell 16%. PacWest Bank (PACW) was down 12%, and shares of other regional banks fell again, too.

[Edward64]

I love how Apple is getting into this business. I can see them forcing traditional banks to be much more competitive in interest rates.

Wife and I checked on interest we were earning at WellsFargo and it was literally peanuts compared to Apple's 4+%. We got the no-fee AppleCard, signed up for the savings plan. We'll be moving our 6-month emergency fund into Apple over the next month, WellsFargo loss. Done through GS and there is the FDIC $250K guarantee.

Apple has learned from enough games of Monopoly that it’s good to be the banker as well as a player. A Monday report from Forbes based on anonymous internal sources claims users deposited close to $1 billion in just four days after Apple introduced its new Goldman Sachs-backed Apple Card savings account.

Our main knocks against current Apple Savings are:

1) There is no way to create a joint savings plan. We're uncomfortable having all our emergency fund just under one person so we both got a card & savings setup and will split 50-50. Not having this feature is weird

2) I've not found a way to access the savings via website yet. But the interface via Apple wallet is pretty good. Another way to "lock" a person into the eco-system.

3) There's confusion in forums how many times a month you can make withdrawals. Some think like 6 but others say no. Regardless, not spelled out. Doesn't really impact us though

The biggest knock is:

4) No way to withdraw cash easily via ATM. We are keeping our WellsFargo accounts so we can use the ATM. IMO Apple can really do some really, really serious damage if they also get into the checking account business with debit cards.

There are some other internet only banks out there that provide more % and more services. In retrospect we should have explored those years ago. But the Apple brand and the simplicity (application and approval in minutes on a weekend) were the main driver.

Bottom-line. I think the smaller banks are really going to get hurt. I think Apple has found a great new revenue stream, especially if they get into the ATM/checking account business.

[Kodos]

I think our Discover savings account is at 3.75% interest (or something in that ballpark) if you want a more traditional banking option.

[Edward64]

Hey thanks, didn't know.

Wife has a Discover but we never really thought about exploring other services it offers.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Glad to see the saga end, hope this is the last of the contagion. Let's have Elizabeth Warren do her thing with regulations.

SVB --> Signature --> Credit Suisse --> First Republic

Spoke too soon. Looks like PacWest is next up.

Shares of PacWest fell more than 39% on Tuesday and was on track for its fourth-straight negative session. The stock was halted for volatility multiple times.

[GrantDawg]

Paypal is paying 4.15% on their saving accounts.

[RainMaker]

Taxpayers going to need to bailout half the banks in this country again it seems. What an industry.


First Republic bailout last week to PacWest this week I'm guessing.

[sterlingice]

But don't worry, larger banks will get to gobble them up for pennies on the dollar and, in exchange, there will be significantly less competition going forward and worse terms and rates for consumers.



SI

[Edward64]

Yeah, Jerome is going to raise rates again today. Leisure & Hospitality again is the leader.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/adp-...pril-2023.html

Private payrolls rose by 296,000 for April, above the downwardly revised 142,000 the previous month and well ahead of the estimate for 133,000.

The fastest job growth in April came in leisure and hospitality with a gain of 154,000, followed by education and health services (69,000) and construction (53,000).

[Edward64]

Yup, Jerome is the debbie downer (again) but the adult in the room. The markets were up initially but as he continued to talk, they went down.

Only Apple earnings (Thu) can save us now. Apple expected to announce buybacks and dividend increases.

When Apple reports quarterly earnings on Thursday, the results are expected to be somewhat muted — the company already guided investors to a 5% revenue decline due largely to decreases in Mac and iPad sales.

Wall Street expects that number to come in at $90 billion, equal to last year’s authorization figure, based on a compilation of analyst reports.

Must be nice to have so much cash on hand. Just for kicks, looked up what $90B can buy.

Companies ranked by Market Cap - page 2

Gilead $100B
Allianz $97B
BlackRock $96B
CVS Health $89B
ADP $89B
Citigroup $89B
EssilorLuxottica $88B (eye wear? WTF)
Charles Schwab $87B
Mercedes-Benz $81B
British American Tobacco $81B
Volkswagen $76B

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yup, Jerome is the debbie downer (again) but the adult in the room. The markets were up initially but as he continued to talk, they went down.

Only Apple earnings (Thu) can save us now. Apple expected to announce buybacks and dividend increases.




Must be nice to have so much cash on hand. Just for kicks, looked up what $90B can buy.

Companies ranked by Market Cap - page 2

Gilead $100B
Allianz $97B
BlackRock $96B
CVS Health $89B
ADP $89B
Citigroup $89B
EssilorLuxottica $88B (eye wear? WTF)
Charles Schwab $87B
Mercedes-Benz $81B
British American Tobacco $81B
Volkswagen $76B

Yes, eye wear. EssilorLuxottica has slowly built up an almost monopoly in eye care, Almost every major brand of frames. almost every major corporate vision center, and the largest provider of lenses are owned by EL. The mom and pop eye care offices are all getting swallowed up.

[RainMaker]

PacWest just plummeted after hours. It looks like they are toast. This just hours after Powell said things were strong.

[Edward64]

Charles Schwab came up as possibly vulnerable (but not as bad as PACW or WAL).

I'm not a CS client (yet) but do have a brokerage at TDAmeritrade which was bought by CS. My TD account will be swapped over weekend of May 26.

Not particularly worried, know its insured by SIPC and I'm far below the limit. I figure the worse that will happen is my funds will be frozen for a short period of time.


If below is true, we'll continue to have angst until around next Fed meeting on Jun 13-14.

Stock Chart Icon

There likely won’t be a respite for the embattled regional banking sector until the Fed cuts interest rates, said Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine. Since the closure of Silicon Valley Bank in March, First Republic has joined the ranks of failed institutions and was recently taken over by JPMorgan Chase.

“Leaving rates this high is going to continue this stress,” Gundlach said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” Wednesday. “I believe with a very high degree of probability there’s going to be further regional bank failures.”

[Edward64]

This meme is making the rounds.

Inaccurate but funny (e.g. Q1 did not have negative growth)

[sterlingice]

The poors were starting to have some wage growth. We couldn't have that now


SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yup, Jerome is the debbie downer (again) but the adult in the room. The markets were up initially but as he continued to talk, they went down.

Only Apple earnings (Thu) can save us now. Apple expected to announce buybacks and dividend increases.

... and Apple comes through again. Up +4.6%.

Forbes had an interesting stat below. I think you have to offset this stat with how much they lost last year also (article didn't have that, but suspect they lead the way in losses). But yeah, these Tech giants lead the way up/down.

These 7 Tech Stocks Command Almost 90% Of The S&P 500’s Gains—Signaling Market Rally May Not Be So Healthy

Silicon Valley titans Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Nvidia, Seattle’s Amazon and Microsoft and electric vehicle giant Tesla gained more than $2.1 trillion in market capitalization year-to-date through Thursday’s market close cumulatively, according to FactSet data.

Incredibly, those seven stocks account for 88% of the S&P’s 2023 gains, with the index up $2.4 trillion this year and 7% overall.

[Edward64]

Different place, different time. Interesting, didn't know about pre-Volcker situation.

Jerome missed back in 2021, not good for his legacy if he prematurely stops and inflation comes back.

Premarket stocks: The Fed could be on the verge of repeating its 1970s mistake | CNN Business

When the US Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to quash inflation last year, it did so with the goal of avoiding a painful repeat of the 1970s, when inflation spun out of control and economic malaise set in.

Inflation has been sliding, indicating that after 10 consecutive interest rate hikes, the central bank is experiencing some success.

But Gary Richardson, a Federal Reserve historian, is worried policymakers — now contemplating taking a breather — still risk repeating mistakes from that era.

A premature retreat could cause the Fed to lose its handle on the situation, presenting even grimmer options down the road. That’s what happened in the 1970s, he said.

Quick rewind: The chair of the Federal Reserve at the time, Arthur Burns, hiked interest rates dramatically between 1972 and 1974. Then, as the economy contracted, he changed course and started cutting rates.

Inflation later roared back, forcing the hand of Paul Volcker, who took over at the Fed in 1979, Richardson said. Volcker brought double-digit inflation to heel — but only by raising borrowing costs high enough to trigger back-to-back recessions in the early 1980s that at one point pushed unemployment above 10%.

“If they don’t stop inflation now, the historical analogy [indicates] it’s not going to stop, and it’s going to get worse,” said Richardson, an economics professor at University of California, Irvine.

[Edward64]

Couldn't read the article through the paywall but the headlines make sense to me. I guess this is one big reason why my house has appreciated so much in the past 3 months (per Zillow).

St Louis Fed says current 30 year fixed average is 6.39% which is lower than the 6.75% we got back in the early 2000's. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

My neighbor, who sold for less than asking last month, should have waited.

Homeowners’ Low Mortgage Rates Mean Few Are Selling - WSJ

The Home Buyer’s Quandary: Nobody’s Selling

Many are ready to move but don’t want to lose the low-rate mortgages they locked in a few years ago, crimping the supply of homes and keeping prices high

[albionmoonlight]

There's some interesting game theory, I think, regarding the debt ceiling.

Investors don't want the US to default on its debt and spark a global recession.

And they are assuming that it isn't going to happen b/c they have not started a massive sell off.

But a massive sell off is the kind of thing that might actually light a fire under the White House/Congress and get them to make a deal.

So by acting like a default won't happen, they make a default more likely to happen.

[Edward64]

Some history lessons in the 2011 debt ceiling "game of chicken".

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/09/what...investors.html

... during the last debt ceiling crossroads, the stock market “basically ignored” the deadline until about two weeks before.

One of the big concerns is how the Treasury may prioritize principal and interest payments for assets like bills or bonds in an unprecedented default.

Under the 2011 contingency plan, there wouldn’t have been a default on Treasurys, according to an August 2011 Federal Open Market Committee conference call transcript.

I like the below quote referring to 2011 and now. Seems quite appropriate

“Congress was willing to play the game of chicken, but there were fewer members of Congress actually willing to crash the car,” said Betsey Stevenson, professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan.

[Edward64]

Don't know what Anheuser-Busch should do to right the ship with falling sales. Reading MSM, it doesn't seem they have a strategy other than stay quiet, help distributors with challenges, and hope this fades.

It may well fade away in the long run but I'd come up with a plan that takes steps vs ignoring-and-hoping-it-goes-away. I suspect whatever they come up with will isolate one group or the other, but better than isolating both (like what's happening now).

I'm sure this will be a business school case study sometime.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bud-lig...lvaney-impact/

Anheuser-Busch InBev has sold $71.5 million worth of Bud Light in the week ending April 29, a 23% drop compared to a year ago, according to data from Bump Williams Consulting. Budweiser sales have hit $31.5 million so far this year, down roughly 11%, the firm said. Sales of other Anheuser-Busch brands — including Budweiser, Michelob Ultra, Busch Light and Natural Light — have also taken a hit.

[Edward64]

Get her ass in jail. Enough of pregnancies & delays.

Former Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes Puts Off Prison Once Again – NBC Bay Area

In a one-page order issued Tuesday afternoon, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit denied a motion by convicted Theranos founder and CEO Elizabeth Holmes to stay out of prison while she appeals her conviction for wire fraud.
:
It will be up to Davila to set a new surrender date for Holmes now that her request has been denied.

[Edward64]

Overall, a pretty good week for my overweighted tech portfolio. Started tracking my portfolio more diligently again that markets are going up vs down. So not near as depressing.

Nasdaq has significantly outgained the Dow and S&P 500 this year. I'm approx. back to where I was in Aug 2022 but still about -15% down from my portfolio high in Feb 2022.

Zillow house price has continued to appreciate (I think it's going up at a faster pace in 2023 than it did in 2021-2022!!) and up +4.8% in past 30 days. I'm now about -3% from the high, so recovered nicely. Yes, I know that Zillow may not be accurate but do think it shows a trend, just glad it doesn't seem house prices will crash after its rapid rise.

So overall, doing much better than the hell hole that was 2Q, 3Q and 4Q 2022.

Let's hope debt ceiling gets done next week; inflation comes in lower and Jerome doesn't see the need to raise rates in June; banks continue to stabilize; and earnings week come in within range of expectations.


PSA. There are 2 ETFs that have caught my eye. JP Morgan's JEPI and JEPQ. Do your own research but they currently pay over 10+% in dividends. Their portfolio are pretty established companies and they use options to max dividends, lower downside risks but also lowers upside gains.

I would have told you 10+% dividends is suspicious but more knowledgeable people at r/dividends/ are fans. They are for people looking at dividend income + a little growth vs pure growth + small dividends.

[Arles]

I am doing a small free substack on my dividend portfolio I have been building. My goal is a collection of ETF/ETN/close end funds to generate between 15 and 20% a year in dividends. By avoiding individual companies, it shouldn't have the earnings risk and big capital swings. Right now the dividend yield is 16%, Shameless plug here, I've only listed two of the investments so far. May plan is to have all listed an my portfolio by the end of May:

https://arlie.substack.com

Again, it's more for me to eventually track progress and get feedback from people there and on twitter. Like I said, it's free so take a gander.

JEPQ will be in the portfolio. My current yield on cost is close to 15%. It's a solid way to get exposed to growth (biggest holdings are MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA). It sells covered call options against the holdings to generate income (which is what it uses to pay the monthly dividend). The nice thing is you don't have to pay taxes if the shares get called away (like you were doing the covered calls yourself). The upside is a little limited with the calls sold, but you also get a nice dividend if we hit another bump in the market.

[Edward64]

Thanks, I'll have to read your blog.

Yes, I am attracted to JEPQ also because of high quality big tech names. I'm not as comfortable with the JEPI names but they seem decent enough.

r/dividends warns there's not long enough of a track record to really know how either will perform or how low the dividend payout will go. Supposedly they will do well in a status quo or slightly down market.

SCHD & VDIGX are significants holding for me, and their dividend yield are 3.75% and 1.5%. I figure I'll put maybe 10-15% of my portfolio into JEPQ, JEPI for the 10+% dividend and see how it goes.

[Arles]

JEPQ and JEPI have variable dividends which means they will increase as the share price does. So it’s better to DCA than make a lump purchase as the shares are a little pricey now. The annualized dividends tend to be 12-15% so buying over time should work out.

[Edward64]

We need Elizabeth Warren (or whoever) to really check this out. Not quite as bad as NINJA loans but only 1% down makes me worried.

Home buyers will now be able to put down 1% on their home, Rocket Mortgage says - MarketWatch

Home buyers will be able to put as little as 1% down as payment for a home under a new program launched by Rocket Mortgage RKT, 1.78%.

A new product by one of the biggest non-bank mortgage lenders in the U.S., called ONE+, will allow low and moderate-income aspiring homeowners to buy homes in their area with just 1% of a home’s purchase price down, the company said, as well as avoid paying mortgage insurance, both of which reduces the overall cost of owning a home.

Above quote about avoid paying PMI seems to contradict below (e.g. avoid paying vs slashed)

To ensure the mortgages that originated by Rocket are sold and guaranteed by Fannie Mae FNMA, +0.18% and Freddie Mac FMCC, +1.66%, government agencies that buy home loans and supply funds to banks and mortgage lenders and support the housing sector, Rocket will pay 2% of the borrower’s loans, the company said. Their mortgage premium, which is typically required if a home buyer puts down less than 20% on a home, will also be slashed.

Yeah, we've heard the below before. Not sure if the Feds can/should stop this but at the very least, they should make sure there are strict guard rails for Rocket; borrowers fully understand, in simple terms, what could happen if real estate heads south, their mortgage is underwater, interest rate changes, any fines or penalties etc.

Unlike low or no down payment plans that flourished and resulted in the subprime loan crisis — where lenders made loans to people who were eventually unable to repay them — requiring borrowers to meet specific and stringent credit standards will prevent the same scenario from repeating again, Walters stressed.

[flere-imsaho]

requiring borrowers to meet specific and stringent credit standards will prevent the same scenario from repeating again, Walters stressed.

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Edward64]

Thank you Nvidia (and Apple) for your fantastic earnings and futures up +2% because of it.

You have the potential to be the next Apple stock (but your current PE ratio is already 175 even before today's futures +25%).

Now if only the Dems & GOP can get their act together, and put the debt ceiling crisis to bed.

[Edward64]

So maybe no pause after all.

Investors are losing hope for a Fed pause and bracing for another interest-rate hike instead. Here's what 8 experts have predicted.

Investors are losing hope that the Federal Reserve will halt its campaign of interest-rate hikes, and bracing for the US central bank to raise rates once again.

For months, lawmakers have been urging the Fed to ease up on its aggressive monetary policy, especially after Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic ran into trouble during the recent banking turmoil.

The banking problems have sparked concerns that further rate hikes could turn the screws on the US economy. For example, several market experts have warned the commercial real estate industry is at risk if the Fed keeps raising borrowing costs.

However, investors are growing more and more convinced that the Fed will power ahead with more rate hikes, as fears of stubborn inflation take hold. At the time of writing, odds in the Fed funds futures market were 63% that the nation's central bank would hike benchmark rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting.

[Edward64]

Economy does not want to be tamed.

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-ne...omy/index.html

Friday's May jobs report included revisions for the previous two months, showing that the US economy added 93,000 more jobs than originally calculated.

The March total was revised up by 52,000 jobs, from 165,000 to 217,000.

April was revised up by 41,000 positions, from 253,000 to 294,000.

"Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

But unemployment rate increased because of reduced self-employment. Wonder what that means?

Despite the big jobs gain, the unemployment rate increased due in large part to a sharp decline of 369,000 in self employment. That was part of an overall drop of 310,000 counted as employed in the household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate.

An alternative measure of unemployment that encompasses discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged higher to 6.7%.

[Edward64]

Apple is doing great so far in anticipation of their AR/VR announcement today.

I'm thinking the markets are irrationally exuberant and are a little too hyped up on a product that will be limited appeal immediately with its $3K price tag. But I do hope they eventually out-meta Meta because Apple (so far) is the better run company and I definitely want to be a Ready Player One metaverse before I die.

[GrantDawg]

Now Apple is down a full 1%. Someone took the jump as an opportunity to dump?

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Apple was at it's recent high, up +2% just before it started and started going down during the day.

The goggles are priced at $3,500 which is higher than the expected $2,500-$3,000; also early 2024 and think many were hoping in time for this holiday season. I'm guessing reality is setting in that there won't be much monetization anytime soon.

Reading some reviews, it does seem to offer more potential than the Meta goggles.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Reading some reviews, it does seem to offer more potential than the Meta goggles.

At that price point, it better give you laser vision

[sovereignstar v2]

$3500 eh? Does it come with a couple nights stay in that Star Wars hotel? I'm surprised the stock didn't drop more

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

[RainMaker]

The Hololens already exists and I don't think it did too well for Microsoft. Apple can dress up tech and have a strong following which will likely lead to better sales. But I just don't know who's interested in wearing that around all day. Kind of the same thing with VR and 3D TVs. Cool tech but comfort trumps all.

Then again, I thought the iPad would bomb so take that with a huge grain of salt.

[Edward64]

Check it out. Pretty cool presentation, I can definitely see potential.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX9qSaGXFyg


It's too bulky right now but I'm sure it'll get more streamlined.

[albionmoonlight]

Chinese exports down 7.5% in May--way more than expected.

I'm thinking this could go in this thread, or the Biden thread, or the COVID thread.

Certainly not an advertisement for having tried to go zero-COVID.

Also have to wonder how the CCP will do. Authoritarian regimes can survive if you are giving the people jobs and money. Much harder to keep the masses sated without growth.

[Edward64]

A nice milestone, supposedly we are in a bull market now ... but not sure it's worth much with all the headwinds.

S&P500 highest close was about 4,766 vs 4,293 today. So still down about -10%.

S&P 500 exits longest bear market since 1948

[Edward64]

Today's CPI is as expected and looks like the pause is on. Let the new Bull market begin!

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/cpi-...may-2023-.html

Pricing did shift notably in the fed funds market, with traders now pricing in a nearly 100% chance that the Fed will not raise benchmark rates when its meeting concludes Wednesday.

Wonder if my previously $12 entree that went up to $18 will come back down some as inflation recedes. Pretty sure I know the answer and now just have to accept the new normal pricing.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Today's CPI is as expected and looks like the pause is on. Let the new Bull market begin!

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/cpi-...may-2023-.html


Wonder if my previously $12 entree that went up to $18 will come back down some as inflation recedes. Pretty sure I know the answer and now just have to accept the new normal pricing.

Deflation is probably worse than inflation.

[Edward64]

Maybe the pandemic did do a little good to shift mindsets.

Just some context on what perception of "wealthy" is.

Who do Americans consider wealthy? Plain old millionaires just don't cut it anymore. - MarketWatch

Americans say it takes $2.2 million to qualify as wealthy these days, according to Charles Schwab’s SCHW, 1.29% latest Modern Wealth survey.

When Schwab started doing the survey in 2017, respondents said it took $2.4 million to be considered wealthy. The amount needed to enter the wealthy club peaked at $2.6 million in 2020, then fell to $1.9 million in 2021, perhaps a consequence of the financial turbulence of the pandemic.

And the shift in thinking (but will it last?) ...

In three of the surveys, Schwab has asked respondents to finish the sentence, “To me, wealth means… .” In 2017 and 2022, “money” was the most popular answer. But this year, the No. 1 answer for what wealth means was “well-being.”

“Americans today aren’t as worried about keeping up with the Joneses, and more importantly, they understand that they can be happier with fulfilling experiences and relationships, even if they have less money than them,” said Jonathan Craig, managing director and head of investor services at Charles Schwab.

And another graphic

The referenced survey details are here Access Denied and Wealth Is More Than Money | Charles Schwab

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by henry296

Deflation is probably worse than inflation.

I don't know if its worse but I definitely believe unrestrained inflation/deflation is definitely very, very bad.

But yeah, I wouldn't want my home value to decrease significantly. Nor people's paychecks etc. On the other hand, it would be good if restaurant, average car sale price, groceries etc. went down some.

I've read some articles that China is experiencing some deflation. I know there were deflationary periods in my lifetime but they weren't memorable to me. So how it's playing out in China should be interesting as a 3rd party observer.

China's factory deflation steepens as demand wanes | Reuters

China's factory gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven years in May and quicker than forecasts, as faltering demand weighed on a slowing manufacturing sector and cast a cloud over the fragile economic recovery.

As rising interests rates and inflation squeeze demand in the United States and Europe, China is in contrast battling a sharp decline in prices with factories receiving less for their products from key overseas markets.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by henry296

Deflation is probably worse than inflation.

It's much, much worse.

[NobodyHere]

I'm actually hoping again I can retire early!

[Edward64]

Unfortunately, "hope" is not a very good retirement strategy

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I've read some articles that China is experiencing some deflation. I know there were deflationary periods in my lifetime but they weren't memorable to me. So how it's playing out in China should be interesting as a 3rd party observer.

A little more on China's problems (of which deflation is a symptom). A good read.

From a Cold War 2 point of view, I sure hope it is true. It'll be good for them to have a "lost decade" or two (like Japan) to restructure/transform. As a realist who has heard that China's bubble will pop for the past 15+ years, I'll believe it happens.

China's Economy Is Imploding. That's a Problem for US, Wall Street.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Unfortunately, "hope" is not a very good retirement strategy

It's not a good strategy for dating either. I might have to look into your Asian women "dating" service.