The Stock Market thread

[Edward64]

Nvidia homeruns again. As far as driving market sentiment, used to be Apple but there’s a new boss in town.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Nvidia homeruns again. As far as driving market sentiment, used to be Apple but there’s a new boss in town.

Their market cap in just a few years.


January, 2020: $144 billion
Today: $2.34 trillion

[Edward64]

And just think where’d they be if we didn’t have sanctions on China.

Would be very good stock wise but China would then copy-and-cheat on the IP so it cuts both ways.

[RainMaker]

State-sponsored monopolies are bad for consumers but understand if you own a lot of NVIDIA stock or on their board.

[Edward64]

There are many valid reasons to protect a company, industry etc. (i.e IP theft, unfair trade practices etc.)

Only don’t complain if another country does it too.

And then it gets to who started it first. Like Israeli-Hamas war

[flere-imsaho]

I mean, the Chinese state literally gives IP from non-Chinese companies to Chinese companies. When I worked in medical device, this was part of the conversation when deciding whether or not to bring a particular product to market.

Like many countries, China requires that detailed specifications for medical devices be submitted as part of the approval process. Within a year or two, you see a duplicate device being produced by a local company.

The most common way around this is to do a joint venture with a Chinese company who can pay off the right people so that your IP isn't sold on to other in-country competitors.

We never had this problem in other countries, including Brazil, India, Argentina, etc....

[Edward64]

TBF the US practices protectionism in different ways, just not as blatantly as Chinas state sponsored theft.

The willingness of our key companies to compromise their IP (Tesla) is same old story like back in the 00s (Oracle offshore development). Good that now many companies aren’t that willing to compromise and the US government (Trump & Joe) have constrained their offering up key IP nowadays.

In other news, Nvidia continues to delight! I am hoping they join the $3T club this year.

[Edward64]

Sweet, sweet day in the markets.

Originally Posted by Edward64

In other news, Nvidia continues to delight! I am hoping they join the $3T club this year.

And in other news (and 2 weeks later) Nvidia is a $3T company … with no signs of slowing down. I am getting nervous though. The run up to Nov or Xi escalating on Taiwan messing up this beautiful year.

[Edward64]

Last day to buy NVDA before their 10-for-1 split.

Theoretically, it should be a neutral effect. But there's been alot of retail consumer interest and some guess more regular Joes will buy at $120 vs $1200. So bought some more today.

You heard it here first (but don't blame me if it goes down).

[Edward64]

Markets up. NVDA up after their split.

Apple down with their big WWDC24 opening day. More big news about iOS new functionality that is really just "meh". Potentially big news with Apple launching Vision Pro outside of US, maybe others can create killer apps/games. I do like the new branding for "Apple Intelligence", I can see that catching on.

Looking forward to Wed CPI and Jerome's decision.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Markets up. NVDA up after their split.

Apple down with their big WWDC24 opening day. More big news about iOS new functionality that is really just "meh". Potentially big news with Apple launching Vision Pro outside of US, maybe others can create killer apps/games. I do like the new branding for "Apple Intelligence", I can see that catching on.

Looking forward to Wed CPI and Jerome's decision.

Looks like the markets liked the data.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Looks like the markets liked the data.

Yes, but Jerome will be speaking soon. And the market always seems to go negative when he speaks ... or at least initially, before rebounding.

The Big-7 tech stocks seem unstoppable. They've found a new catalyst with all things AI.

[Edward64]

Thank you Mercury for Nasdaq, Nvidia, Broadcom etc. Nice 3% gain this past week.

I was looking up what God to pray to for the markets. Apparently, it is Mercury

God of financial gain, commerce, eloquence, messages, communication, travelers, boundaries, luck, trickery, merchants, thieves

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Last day to buy NVDA before their 10-for-1 split.

Theoretically, it should be a neutral effect. But there's been alot of retail consumer interest and some guess more regular Joes will buy at $120 vs $1200. So bought some more today.

You heard it here first (but don't blame me if it goes down).

Nvidia is now #1. It’s gain 11+% since the split 11 days ago. Followed closely by Microsoft and then Apple. All $3T+ companies.

Hope it continues to increase and no China-Taiwan surprise.

[Edward64]

Just rambling on ...

Indicators from past couple weeks indicate that inflation as a whole is moderating (or at least not increasing). Fed wanted to see a pattern and I do believe a pattern is emerging.

There are 4 more chances to cut rates in 2024 ... Jul, Sep 18, Nov 7 and Dec 18. Scuttlebutt is Fed won't do anything until Dec.

I've watched some pundits saying Fed should cut now or it'll be too late (e.g. recession). But they've been saying this since 4Q of last year and they've been wrong so far. Inflation has held up until recently. Jerome screwed it up early with his transitory comment, but he's doing well now.

YTD the S&P 500 is up 13.8%, Dow up 12% and Nasdaq up 19.8%. So, all good news for Joe. Sure would be nice to have another 15-20% year in 2025.

[Edward64]

Just a fun fact. Today is the day, check out the chart in the link. Thank me afterwards.

Blocked

Based on 73 years of data, this next Wed. July 3rd is historically the best day to be long for several months. July, especially the first two weeks, is historically one of the best periods of the year.

New S&P and Nasdaq high thanks to Jerome saying we've made progress. Great time to be in markets right now but suspect things will continue to be unsettled. Even if inflation is tamed, rates come down, there's always the question of who will be president.

[NobodyHere]

The SP500 is currently up 28 points and is at a record high! Not too shabby.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

The SP500 is currently up 28 points and is at a record high! Not too shabby.

Agree, and Nvidia had a great day. Last week sucked because Nvidia kept going down (and I don't own any Tesla stock) but this week has been really sweet for me.

Praying to Mercury that this continues for the next several years regardless of Joe or Trump.

[Edward64]

Seeet, sweet day.

Nvidia is back over 3T but still behind Apple right now (good to see Apple back on top). With a good inflation report Thu, markets betting rate cut as early as Sept (so up to 3 this year vs just 1 cut in Dec). Beats me.

FWIW Broadcom (AVGO) doing a 10-1 split on Fri. Not as successful as Nvidia but also riding the AI craze. Do your own research (figure I’m 4/10) but I’ll pick some up to maybe help with travel plans next year.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Seeet, sweet day.

Nvidia is back over 3T but still behind Apple right now (good to see Apple back on top). With a good inflation report Thu, markets betting rate cut as early as Sept (so up to 3 this year vs just 1 cut in Dec). Beats me.

FWIW Broadcom (AVGO) doing a 10-1 split on Fri. Not as successful as Nvidia but also riding the AI craze. Do your own research (figure I’m 4/10) but I’ll pick some up to maybe help with travel plans next year.

I'm very tempted to take my leanFIRE chance right now.

[Edward64]

On AVGO?

Sure put in 5% on it but I wouldn’t do more. There are occasional suicide helpline posts on r/wsb!

What I do have stronger conviction on is etf SCHG. It holds a lot of tech stocks and I am confident if it dips, it’ll dip with the rest of the market, and will eventually recover. No similar thing for AVGO.

Or as I tell my kids, just put it into etf VOO (S&P 500) and let it ride.

[Edward64]

Today was a frakking day.

[NobodyHere]

[Edward64]

I was wondering if anyone noticed? Too busy talking politics

I wouldn’t be surprise if this is the bubble popping with 6+ months of recovery

[Kodos]

NASDAQ has had a rough go lately.

[Edward64]

Blaming Kamala and the uncertainty she brings now. The markets were betting Trump would win and now this …

[NobodyHere]

Looks like the SP500 is trying to salvage the month. Up 89.11 points as of right now.

[Edward64]

Doesn’t near makeup for the past 2 weeks. But good start.

But then Jerome leans Debbie downer so who knows.

[NobodyHere]

Et tu, August?

[Edward64]

Frak it

Let’s just get the 10% correction over with and move on (upwards).

[NobodyHere]

[Lathum]

The GOP will find some way to blame this on Biden bringing the prisoners home while claiming Trump deserves the credit for it.

[GrantDawg]

This seems like something...

Whoa, Berkshire cut its Apple stake by 50%. pic.twitter.com/8ZzxKoMyGR

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 3, 2024

[Edward64]

Nasdaq is in -10% correction territory. Futures today look fugly so more pain.

Do what you will oh Mercury.

[Edward64]

Holy sh*t

Nasdaq futures down -5.4% right now. It’s going to be a painful August

[NobodyHere]

According to MarketWatch, the SP500 YTD returns right now is 6.66%. That's a good omen right? RIGHT?

[Kodos]

I have to take the blame here. Two or three weeks ago, my wife and I hit a milestone in our retirement savings accounts. I mentioned the fact to her. Since then, it has been downhill. Life doesn't like me to feel too confident.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I have to take the blame here. Two or three weeks ago, my wife and I hit a milestone in our retirement savings accounts. I mentioned the fact to her. Since then, it has been downhill. Life doesn't like me to feel too confident.

Similar circumstance here.

[NobodyHere]

Bitcoin is getting hammered too today. Down 17% right now.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Bitcoin is getting hammered too today. Down 17% right now.

That's all part of the plan. Just ask Hammer!

[albionmoonlight]

Mrs. A and I had a discussion about a week ago over whether we should take some money out of the investments to cover a short-term expense. It has nothing to do with whether we thought the market was going to go up or down. We decided to do the responsible thing and leave the long-term money be.

Of course, had we taken the money out then, we'd be in a slightly better position today than we are.

The lesson: never be responsible.

[PilotMan]

But we're getting what we all wanted! Interest rates will totally collapse and then everyone will be happy again! Right?!

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Similar circumstance here.

Also here. Looks like we were all dumb together.

[Edward64]

We have 6 months in HYSA so not panicking yet, but damn … not going to look at my portfolio

[cuervo72]

*checks calendar*

Yeah, still not retiring for a while. (Also, seem to recall hearing a little volatility now and then is a positive.)

[Ksyrup]

There's so much focus on conspiracy theories nowadays that I feel like there should be some suspicion around the Fed's slow-play of the rate cut scenarios which have led us to where we are today.

[Edward64]

Jerome said inflation spike when they thought it was going down previously. He wanted to be sure this time. And TBF the pundits were saying lower rates late last year and they were wrong then.

I’m on the record saying I think recession is better than lingering inflation. So it hurts but I’m okay with it if inflation is really beat.

[Arles]

The fed is always late (should have started raising in 2021, esp since they dropped it over 1.5% in 2020 due to covid). They were late to raise rates (and then over-corrected) and now are late to lower them. Inflation has gone from 3.5% in march to 3.0% in June (and probably lower in July when the numbers come out next week). It's pretty clear the supply chain issues in 21 and 22 caused a massive spike that was temporary. Here's our inflation rates:
2019: 2.3%
2020: 1.4%
2021: 7%
2022: 6.5%
2023: 3.4%
2024: 3.0%

Covid screwed up 2020-2022 and this is just a lingering hangover of a bunch of people raising prices due to commodities and the price of goods increase due mostly to the supply chain challenges after covid. There's no reason to keep rates at 5.3% at this point. Natural progression should get us back into the 2s by year's end. It would be funny if we have a rate in the 2.5% range next year as the difference from 2019 and 2025 would be 0.2% after all the hemming and hawing about how "inflation is here to stay now".

[QuikSand]

lay people mean "annoyingly high prices" when they say "inflation"

they're not pissed that eggs went up 50c this year, they're pissed off that eggs are still a dollar higher and a half than they were at some other time (theoretically when Trump was saving us from bad things, in many cases)

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

lay people mean "annoyingly high prices" when they say "inflation"

they're not pissed that eggs went up 50c this year, they're pissed off that eggs are still a dollar higher and a half than they were at some other time (theoretically when Trump was saving us from bad things, in many cases)

Exactly. People don't understand the terminology, which is why people get angry when they are told inflation is down. "If it is down, then why are my eggs still so high?"