LXXVIII: Politicus Lupus (GAME OVER!! SEE POST #2593 FOR RESULTS) - Page 46

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why are you guys being so antagonistic about this? Do you really just want to hope Tyrith is not the cunning wolf? I'm trying to come up with solutions where we can win no matter what, and I'd rather feel like you guys are working WITH me rather than against me.

I'm not being antagonistic, just vehement.

I just feel strongly that mcc and chubby are the last two wolves and don't want to F anything up.

I'm willing to go through some possible scenarios with you though.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Either way, killing you makes 6 for Tyrith. The 2nd wolf would've had to have been collins or Chubby. Collins already had 3 districts, so that wouldn't have stopped them.

So you're saying that you honestly think Tyrith and Chubby are the final two wolves?

Since if it was Chubby and Collins we would've lost the game last night with a night-kill of you instead of ches.

Again, you're assuming the wolves knew that henry was going to be out of the game. If henry was still there, like the wolves could have thought due to late results, then as far as they knew, killing me would not have won them the game.

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why are you guys being so antagonistic about this? Do you really just want to hope Tyrith is not the cunning wolf? I'm trying to come up with solutions where we can win no matter what, and I'd rather feel like you guys are working WITH me rather than against me.

Because I completely disagree. I think it's a needless risk.

If it's not possible for Tyrith to be paired with Collins (since they could've won the game last night) then it'd almost have to be Tyrith and Chubby (which I doubt in general) or Collins and Chubby.

We know Chubby likely isn't the Brutal, he's likely the cunning. So let's just vote him out. No way for Collins to win on his own.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

And if you think Tyrith and Chubby are the final two wolves, let's just vote Chubby since we know he's not the Brutal (I'm assuming here the Brutal and the Cunning are two separate wolves)

This I might be able to get behind. Let me think on that some.

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:00 AM

But 3-2-2 screws us because we don't know the tie-breaker. At the very least it could result in no-lynch which gives them an extra night-kill.

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Again, you're assuming the wolves knew that henry was going to be out of the game. If henry was still there, like the wolves could have thought due to late results, then as far as they knew, killing me would not have won them the game.

No, I'm not. Chubby was the one that gained Henry's district, not Collins.

What I"m saying is, going into last night it was

Pass-2, Tyrith-4, Henry-1, Chubby-2, Collins-3.

Henry or no Henry, if Collins is the wolf, you'd be dead. Period. End of Story.

So, therefore, for Tyrith to be a wolf, he *must* be paired with Chubby (or some f'ed up scenrio where you/illini/Kwhit are a wolf).

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'm not being antagonistic, just vehement.

I just feel strongly that mcc and chubby are the last two wolves and don't want to F anything up.

I'm willing to go through some possible scenarios with you though.

I agree that collins and Chubby is the most likely scenario as well, but part of me thinks they wouldn't have been THAT open yesterday -- I figure one of the two wolves would play along with the gang.

Tyrith · 07-30-2008, 09:01 AM

Heinz really should be the president. Then there'd be no way we could lose this game. For now, as long as heinz stays in the game we cannot lose the game excluding crazy scenarios where either Pass or I is a wolf.

Do we think it's possible that the cunning and the brutal are the same person?

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Because I completely disagree. I think it's a needless risk.

If it's not possible for Tyrith to be paired with Collins (since they could've won the game last night) then it'd almost have to be Tyrith and Chubby (which I doubt in general) or Collins and Chubby.

We know Chubby likely isn't the Brutal, he's likely the cunning. So let's just vote him out. No way for Collins to win on his own.

I don't think that's true. Let's walk through some scenarios here.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No, I'm not. Chubby was the one that gained Henry's district, not Collins.

What I"m saying is, going into last night it was

Pass-2, Tyrith-4, Henry-1, Chubby-2, Collins-3.

Henry or no Henry, if Collins is the wolf, you'd be dead. Period. End of Story.

So, therefore, for Tyrith to be a wolf, he *must* be paired with Chubby (or some f'ed up scenrio where you/illini/Kwhit are a wolf).

Sorry, I think it was that your earlier post confused me. Let me reply to it again.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Heinz really should be the president. Then there'd be no way we could lose this game. For now, as long as heinz stays in the game we cannot lose the game excluding crazy scenarios where either Pass or I is a wolf.

Do we think it's possible that the cunning and the brutal are the same person?

That's a really good question. But watch out -- you guys don't want me considering MORE possibilities!

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

I don't think that's true. Let's walk through some scenarios here.

Presuming we're right about a Chubby lynch and Collins is the final brutal wolf we'd have Pass as a villager with 2. Tyrith a villager with 4. I'm a villager with 3. That's the Repub side.

Then let's say I get one of CHubby's and Collins gets 2. So he'd have 6. Even if he killed me, one has to figure 2 each would go to him and Tyrith (so he'd have 8). If he night-killed you, he'd have 8. Plus we have a doc block chance too.

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:03 AM

If we lynch Chubby, it really all comes down to where his districts go. I could easily see 2 go to mccollins (possibly all 3 since he's a dem).

Tyrith · 07-30-2008, 09:03 AM

Alright, I agree with heinz and KWhit - we should just kill Chubby and be done with it. We really need to kill the brutal last - if either KWhit or heinz lives through tonight along with me and Pass we're going to win in the mccollins/Chubby scenario.

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Heinz really should be the president. Then there'd be no way we could lose this game. For now, as long as heinz stays in the game we cannot lose the game excluding crazy scenarios where either Pass or I is a wolf.

Do we think it's possible that the cunning and the brutal are the same person?

And lo and behold, who do we have to blame for my being unable to be nominated for President...Chubby.

I mean really people, I hate to sound like I'm being vindictive here after all Chubby and I went back-and-forth yesterday, but really? Do we just chalk all this up to a big mis-understanding / coincidence? C'mon now...

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Either way, killing you makes 6 for Tyrith. The 2nd wolf would've had to have been collins or Chubby. Collins already had 3 districts, so that wouldn't have stopped them.

So you're saying that you honestly think Tyrith and Chubby are the final two wolves?

Since if it was Chubby and Collins we would've lost the game last night with a night-kill of you instead of ches.

I agree with the first two paragraphs -- like I said before, if it were Tyrith-mccollins, killing me would have won the game for them. And I was not likely to be protected, so I think we can rule that out.

I don't get how if it was Chubby and collins, killing me would have won the game for them. I'm guessing you meant Tyrith and collins?

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:05 AM

Yeah, if we lynch Chubby, best case for mccollins by himself is probably getting 8 districts. We'd be ok.

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

If we lynch Chubby, it really all comes down to where his districts go. I could easily see 2 go to mccollins (possibly all 3 since he's a dem).

I dunno, I don't think it'd just go to him as a Dem. Otherwise, why have minor/major win conditions if it's near-impossible for the other side to get a middle-ground district?

Tyrith · 07-30-2008, 09:07 AM

Alright, Pass, this is my stance on all this. CR, as the Supreme Court, has forced us into a fairly normal game of WW. I'm willing to largely suppose that he's following normal WW conventions otherwise. My guess is that the wolves, even if they had a choice would make the brutal and cunning different people to minimize their variance.

To me the only scenario that really scares me is that KWhit is a wolf and made a totally dastardly several days ago, but that just seems way, way too nuts.

Occam's Razor points towards the Chubby/mccollins cunning/brutal scenario. I'm willing to consider alternative actions to voting out Chubby that keep in mind this is the most likely scenario and don't materially injure our chances to win the game in it.

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I agree with the first two paragraphs -- like I said before, if it were Tyrith-mccollins, killing me would have won the game for them. And I was not likely to be protected, so I think we can rule that out.

I don't get how if it was Chubby and collins, killing me would have won the game for them. I'm guessing you meant Tyrith and collins?

Yeah, typo there. If it's Chubby and Collins then they made the best play last night, getting a player out who wasn't going to be protected and whose district was likely headed to the wolf side.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Alright, I agree with heinz and KWhit - we should just kill Chubby and be done with it. We really need to kill the brutal last - if either KWhit or heinz lives through tonight along with me and Pass we're going to win in the mccollins/Chubby scenario.

So you're saying you DON'T want us to vote for you?

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

And lo and behold, who do we have to blame for my being unable to be nominated for President...Chubby.

I mean really people, I hate to sound like I'm being vindictive here after all Chubby and I went back-and-forth yesterday, but really? Do we just chalk all this up to a big mis-understanding / coincidence? C'mon now...

No. I'm not saying I trust Chubby. I don't think his vote was intended to make sure you couldn't be President, but I'm not saying it was a misunderstanding. Like I said, I'm trying to keep our bases covered here.

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Alright, Pass, this is my stance on all this. CR, as the Supreme Court, has forced us into a fairly normal game of WW. I'm willing to largely suppose that he's following normal WW conventions otherwise. My guess is that the wolves, even if they had a choice would make the brutal and cunning different people to minimize their variance.

To me the only scenario that really scares me is that KWhit is a wolf and made a totally dastardly several days ago, but that just seems way, way too nuts.

Occam's Razor points towards the Chubby/mccollins cunning/brutal scenario. I'm willing to consider alternative actions to voting out Chubby that keep in mind this is the most likely scenario and don't materially injure our chances to win the game in it.

You can rule out any thoughts of me being a wolf. I was a big reason MrsS was lynched, and I was attacked and guarded by the BG (which was written up by CR). I don't even want to think how I could have faked the second one of those two things.

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:11 AM

Here's how I see things

Voting out Pass - Just doesn't seem like a wolf. It's hard to conjure up a scenario where even if he was a wolf, he could win the game (unless it was like 4 Repub wolves with Tyrith or something equally insane)

Voting Out Tyrith - I see the general point in it, but I disagree with it. I think it's skirting the real issue, and it enters in risk where there needn't be any more than there alread yis

Voting illini - Makes little sense. If he's a wolf, we're a-ok.

Voting me - Terrible idea.

Voting Chubby - excellent idea. Hard to construct a wolf end-game scenario that is both plausible and doesn't contain him as a wolf. If he's a wolf, he's the Cunning wolf. I'm of the ilk that the Cunning and Brutal aren't the same wolf, so that's a plus

Voting Collins - good idea, but not ideal IMO, mainly because if he's a wolf, which is likely, he's the brutal and Chubby can get a swarm of districts from deadline today before daybreak begins, possibly taking the game. If a wolf, it only makes sense (well, from us potentially losing the game here) if he's partnered with Chubby

Voting KWhit - Bad idea. If he's a wolf he made one son of a bitch play back on Night 3. I'll pay him off if that's case.

Chubby · 07-30-2008, 09:11 AM

jeebus, what do i have to do to prove i'm not a wolf???

Censure mccollins

I'm sure there's at least one Dem wolf and I KNOW i'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure KWhit isn't a wolf.

I said all day yesterday there was a 3-1 wolf split and while I was wrong on heinz, it looks like i was right on the split.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:11 AM

Word from CR: The brutal and cunning wolf can NOT be the same person.

Tyrith · 07-30-2008, 09:12 AM

If we could orchestrate a scenario where we could for sure get it so that we could do it without chance of wolves screwing us up, I'd be for it. However, 2/3 of 7 people is going to take 5 votes, and those will need to involve wolves who could then screw with our lynch. It's too risky, IMO.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

jeebus, what do i have to do to prove i'm not a wolf???

Censure mccollins

I'm sure there's at least one Dem wolf and I KNOW i'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure KWhit isn't a wolf.

I said all day yesterday there was a 3-1 wolf split and while I was wrong on heinz, it looks like i was right on the split.

Any thoughts on who the 3rd republican wolf is?

Tyrith · 07-30-2008, 09:14 AM

The only crazy scenario is where illini is the other wolf. In which case, if Chubby and heinz or KWhit both die I think we're still okay, and I expect heinz to be guarded tonight under almost any scenario.

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:14 AM

So we'll be able to vote two people out before we have another election, right? One today, one tomorrow, with election results posted tomorrow night? If that's right, then we won't have the election stuff to worry about taking some of us out of the game.

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

jeebus, what do i have to do to prove i'm not a wolf???

Censure mccollins

I'm sure there's at least one Dem wolf and I KNOW i'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure KWhit isn't a wolf.

I said all day yesterday there was a 3-1 wolf split and while I was wrong on heinz, it looks like i was right on the split.

Lame.

So yeah, who is this mysterious 3rd wolf? Or do you still think it's me?

Chubby · 07-30-2008, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

You can rule out any thoughts of me being a wolf. I was a big reason MrsS was lynched, and I was attacked and guarded by the BG (which was written up by CR). I don't even want to think how I could have faked the second one of those two things.

I was the decding vote on lynching Mrs S, made at one min before the 10 mind penalty deadline.

I guess that was a wolfy move?

I'm not a friggin wolf!

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:16 AM

I'm pretty sure Chubby could say he's Santa Claus at this point and I'd still likely vote for him.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

The only crazy scenario is where illini is the other wolf. In which case, if Chubby and heinz or KWhit both die I think we're still okay, and I expect heinz to be guarded tonight under almost any scenario.

If illini is a wolf, we're golden, since he can't pick up any districts until re-election tomorrow evening.

mccollins · 07-30-2008, 09:16 AM

Come on - voting for me to be a wolf with no proof?

I want some Miranda rights.

Chubby · 07-30-2008, 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Lame.

So yeah, who is this mysterious 3rd wolf? Or do you still think it's me?

How the fuck do I know. I clearly don't have as a good of a read on the game as I thought.

You scanned me, I'm good. I'm sure if you had scanned mccollins he'd have come up as a wolf. So you're going after the good scan because you refuse to think it's a 3-1 split?

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:16 AM

Hey - who's the witness? We should be able to get some info from them to help.

I think now's a good time to reveal that.

Tyrith · 07-30-2008, 09:16 AM

If we lynch Chubby today and mccollins tomorrow there's no way we lose this game if Pass, heinz, KWhit, and myself are all good like we expect.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

So we'll be able to vote two people out before we have another election, right? One today, one tomorrow, with election results posted tomorrow night? If that's right, then we won't have the election stuff to worry about taking some of us out of the game.

Right. Yeah, the game will most likely be over before the next election.

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

If we lynch Chubby today and mccollins tomorrow there's no way we lose this game if Pass, heinz, KWhit, and myself are all good like we expect.

Exactly.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'm pretty sure Chubby could say he's Santa Claus at this point and I'd still likely vote for him.

Well, Chubby may not be Santa Claus, but Santa Claus is chubby.

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:18 AM

I'd be interested to hear whatever Cubby and Mcc want to say in their defense.

Passacaglia · 07-30-2008, 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

If we lynch Chubby today and mccollins tomorrow there's no way we lose this game if Pass, heinz, KWhit, and myself are all good like we expect.

But the point is to have a contingency in case you're not good.

Chubby · 07-30-2008, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I'm pretty sure Chubby could say he's Santa Claus at this point and I'd still likely vote for him.

Way to use your scanning ability then. Scan me, come up clear and still vote for me...

Seriously, look at my actions all game if you want to ignore my scan. I misread the game yesterday but there's no way I put the deciding vote on Mrs S as a wolf and I don't take the hit to myself and the party by vetoing a wolf ridered bill when i was speaker...

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chubby

How the fuck do I know. I clearly don't have as a good of a read on the game as I thought.

You scanned me, I'm good. I'm sure if you had scanned mccollins he'd have come up as a wolf. So you're going after the good scan because you refuse to think it's a 3-1 split?

No, I'm going for the good scan because I wanted to know which of you two was the brutal

jeheinz72 · 07-30-2008, 09:20 AM

Ok Chubby, I'll ask one question. Your answer will determine my vote

Are you the Doctor?

Tyrith · 07-30-2008, 09:20 AM

Just look at the record throughout the game. How likely do you think it really is that I'm a wolf?

Tyrith · 07-30-2008, 09:20 AM

I'm not the witness, btw.

mccollins · 07-30-2008, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Well, Chubby may not be Santa Claus, but Santa Claus is chubby.

If you were going to vote for him anyway, then you wasted your scan, right?

KWhit · 07-30-2008, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Just look at the record throughout the game. How likely do you think it really is that I'm a wolf?

0.0001%

07-30-2008, 09:00 AM	#2255
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	But 3-2-2 screws us because we don't know the tie-breaker. At the very least it could result in no-lynch which gives them an extra night-kill.

07-30-2008, 09:01 AM	#2258
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Heinz really should be the president. Then there'd be no way we could lose this game. For now, as long as heinz stays in the game we cannot lose the game excluding crazy scenarios where either Pass or I is a wolf. Do we think it's possible that the cunning and the brutal are the same person?

07-30-2008, 09:03 AM	#2263
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	If we lynch Chubby, it really all comes down to where his districts go. I could easily see 2 go to mccollins (possibly all 3 since he's a dem).

07-30-2008, 09:03 AM	#2264
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Alright, I agree with heinz and KWhit - we should just kill Chubby and be done with it. We really need to kill the brutal last - if either KWhit or heinz lives through tonight along with me and Pass we're going to win in the mccollins/Chubby scenario.

07-30-2008, 09:05 AM	#2267
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Yeah, if we lynch Chubby, best case for mccollins by himself is probably getting 8 districts. We'd be ok.

07-30-2008, 09:07 AM	#2269
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Alright, Pass, this is my stance on all this. CR, as the Supreme Court, has forced us into a fairly normal game of WW. I'm willing to largely suppose that he's following normal WW conventions otherwise. My guess is that the wolves, even if they had a choice would make the brutal and cunning different people to minimize their variance. To me the only scenario that really scares me is that KWhit is a wolf and made a totally dastardly several days ago, but that just seems way, way too nuts. Occam's Razor points towards the Chubby/mccollins cunning/brutal scenario. I'm willing to consider alternative actions to voting out Chubby that keep in mind this is the most likely scenario and don't materially injure our chances to win the game in it.

07-30-2008, 09:11 AM	#2275
Chubby Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Syracuse, NY	jeebus, what do i have to do to prove i'm not a wolf??? Censure mccollins I'm sure there's at least one Dem wolf and I KNOW i'm not a wolf and I'm pretty sure KWhit isn't a wolf. I said all day yesterday there was a 3-1 wolf split and while I was wrong on heinz, it looks like i was right on the split.

07-30-2008, 09:11 AM	#2276
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Word from CR: The brutal and cunning wolf can NOT be the same person.

07-30-2008, 09:12 AM	#2277
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	If we could orchestrate a scenario where we could for sure get it so that we could do it without chance of wolves screwing us up, I'd be for it. However, 2/3 of 7 people is going to take 5 votes, and those will need to involve wolves who could then screw with our lynch. It's too risky, IMO.

07-30-2008, 09:14 AM	#2279
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	The only crazy scenario is where illini is the other wolf. In which case, if Chubby and heinz or KWhit both die I think we're still okay, and I expect heinz to be guarded tonight under almost any scenario.

07-30-2008, 09:14 AM	#2280
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	So we'll be able to vote two people out before we have another election, right? One today, one tomorrow, with election results posted tomorrow night? If that's right, then we won't have the election stuff to worry about taking some of us out of the game.

07-30-2008, 09:16 AM	#2285
mccollins College Prospect Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Nicholasville, KY	Come on - voting for me to be a wolf with no proof? I want some Miranda rights.

07-30-2008, 09:16 AM	#2287
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Hey - who's the witness? We should be able to get some info from them to help. I think now's a good time to reveal that.

07-30-2008, 09:16 AM	#2288
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	If we lynch Chubby today and mccollins tomorrow there's no way we lose this game if Pass, heinz, KWhit, and myself are all good like we expect.

07-30-2008, 09:18 AM	#2292
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	I'd be interested to hear whatever Cubby and Mcc want to say in their defense.

07-30-2008, 09:20 AM	#2297
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	Just look at the record throughout the game. How likely do you think it really is that I'm a wolf?

07-30-2008, 09:20 AM	#2298
Tyrith College Starter Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Houston, TX	I'm not the witness, btw.

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