03-01-2022, 11:02 AM | #201 |
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03-01-2022, 11:02 AM | #202 | |
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I have long believed in the argument that "We want to integrate possible bad actor/warmonger nations into the world economy. If their economy becomes dependent on international trade, then they will have too much to lose by going to war or otherwise stepping too far out of line." This conflict is showing me the flipside of that approach. They become dependent on your trade. But you also become dependent on their trade. Not sure where the right balance lies, but I'm certainly in a position to re-calibrate my thoughts. |
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03-01-2022, 11:03 AM | #203 |
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03-01-2022, 11:09 AM | #204 |
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Not this one and not for this, anyways SI
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03-01-2022, 11:09 AM | #205 | |
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Just like zombie or contagion movies have to be rethought after the last 2 years SI
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03-01-2022, 11:41 AM | #206 | |
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Oh yeah. Similar to how I'm constantly reloading when playing Long War mod for WOTC |
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03-01-2022, 11:44 AM | #207 | |
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The joke I saw was that the pandemic has made Sci-Fi harder to believe. "IN THE YEAR 3050, ALIENS CAME TO OUR SOLAR SYSTEM WITH PLANS TO TURN OFF THE SUN!" Me: Eh. Seems plausible. "SO HUMANITY BANDED TOGETHER . . . " Me: Oh my God. That is so unrealistic. |
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03-01-2022, 12:02 PM | #208 |
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You win Plague Inc. when the vaccine is discovered. Because it's just assumed that people will want the thing that saves their lives.
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03-01-2022, 12:09 PM | #209 | ||
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This is fantastic.
Article points out countries that stayed to listen. I did not see China or India on that list but would have thought they stayed also. Astonishing moment diplomats WALK OUT as Kremlin minister says Russia was forced to invade Ukraine | Daily Mail Online Quote:
Quote:
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03-01-2022, 12:15 PM | #210 |
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Слава Україні
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03-01-2022, 12:31 PM | #211 |
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There were some posts here that Putin may have emboldened China on Taiwan.
I think based on how the war is going so far and the world reaction, this has reduced the odds that China will try to invade Taiwan militarily. If Taiwan declares independence then all bets are off. |
03-01-2022, 12:32 PM | #212 | |
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5th Circuit sure is something. Especially in contrast to other rulings where they give the executive branch immense powers with the military. Almost like this one little exception was carved out for political purposes. |
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03-01-2022, 12:36 PM | #213 |
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A Reuters reporter on the ground in Ukraine. Not many answers to questions yet for his AMA but I'll be monitoring for his insights.
Reddit - Dive into anything |
03-01-2022, 12:41 PM | #214 | |
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That's a fair point. To me it's not really a question of geopolitical strategy at all, but just one of inevitability. If no one country can produce everything it needs and purchase everything it produces - and IMO that's a truism - then at a certain level it just doesn't matter if global trade is a good idea or a bad idea, any more than one might question whether gravity is a good or bad thing. It just *is*. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 03-01-2022 at 12:44 PM. |
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03-01-2022, 01:41 PM | #215 | |
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It's more that an energy grid is a basic requirement for participation in the world economy. If you outsource the key components, you give the countries that produce what you need a lot of power they wouldn't ordinarily have. Russia has the 11th largest GDP in the world. Yet Putin, who is not a Democratic leader even though Russia has somewhat of a modern marketplace, is one of the most powerful people in the world because he sells Europe what's closing in on half of their energy needs. The EU can't exist in its current form without Russia's oil, gas and coal. You could say the same thing about food in the past, and that's still an issue in some places in the world. Trade is one thing. Yes, it "is" and it ends up benefiting both sides to such an extent that isolationism is reckless and damaging. Dependence is something else. When you give an authoritarian control over your existence, there's a danger this can happen. |
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03-01-2022, 02:28 PM | #216 | |
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I kindof agree with both of you but I think it's not always that simple, either.
I was talking to a relative of mine in Italy about the war on Friday: Quote:
What do you tell a country like that? Along with energy, food and water are major security issues, as well. Again, oversimplifying, but you only have so much land and you can use some of to farm or get water, some for energy generation, and some for industry to keep you politically relevant/powerful. The US can mostly get all of them and we can even we can play our hand where things like rare earth metals, good placement for military bases, high tech infrastructure, etc. can somewhat be treated like "security concerns". But most places don't have that luxury. SI
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Houston Hippopotami, III.3: 20th Anniversary Thread - All former HT players are encouraged to check it out! Janos: "Only America could produce an imbecile of your caliber!" Freakazoid: "That's because we make lots of things better than other people!" Last edited by sterlingice : 03-01-2022 at 02:29 PM. |
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03-01-2022, 02:28 PM | #217 | ||
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Looks like the fighter jets deal fell through. European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses - POLITICO Quote:
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03-01-2022, 02:38 PM | #218 |
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Future Italy be burning a lot of olive oil.
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03-01-2022, 02:39 PM | #219 |
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Dammit. That was going to be a big deal.
And from what I saw, the US was like "here's some F-16s" to the EU countries get upgrades, Ukraine gets the planes they need, and everyone's happy. SI
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03-01-2022, 02:46 PM | #220 | |
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You tell Italy the same thing Italy tells San Marino. You are part of a Democratic union. Just like the concept of the United States, or the European Union. Democracy makes this work. When you serve at the will of your people, you have incentive to come together. In the last couple of days, Olaf Sholz announced the construction of terminals at a couple of ports to handle LNG, presumably from the US. Hopefully, we are ramping up production so that we can play that role. Same with Canada. I think it's easy to get distracted by Trumpisms like "America First" and mistake that for a show of strength or a declaration of hostility. The world is a very complex place, and politicians exist to try and fuck that up. |
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03-01-2022, 03:01 PM | #221 | |
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How would that work, though? How would they even get to Ukraine? Zelensky has asked NATO for a "No-Fly-Zone" enforcement over Ukraine. That would start WWIII the second anyone engaged because presumably Russia is monitoring and ready to enforce its own No-Fly-Zone over Ukraine. They took out the entire Ukraine air force. Let's say you could sneak planes in or have Ukrainian pilots sneak out of the country and "borrow" them. Then what? They engage for ten minutes and are destroyed. Unfortunately, Russia has complete air and sea control right now. Challenging that means direct NATO engagement, no way around it. Even getting the essential anti-tank weapons in there would be a miracle at this point. Russia is setting up siege-like offenses. Maybe they don't work because their own supply lines aren't good or they are underestimating the Ukrainians. But that's what they're doing and if the threat of isolation is failing (hard to even try because everyone depends on Nordstream I) because of China, I don't know how this ends up. If Putin can stomach what he's asked his forces to do to Kharkiv in the last couple of days, we're just not dealing with a rational human being - unfortunately one with far too much control. |
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03-01-2022, 03:17 PM | #222 | |
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This could also b a cover story for Ukraine getting the planes. Who knows? Everybody involved has an interest in doing more while appearing to do less.
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03-01-2022, 04:22 PM | #223 | |
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The Russians don't have a lot of control in the west and if those were coming across the border from Moldova or Romania or Poland, it would be doable, I think. The link Edward posted said Ukraine got pilots out to Poland to try and pick up planes and that's when they found out there were no planes. SI
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03-01-2022, 05:21 PM | #224 |
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I also had the question about how all these weapons make it to the frontline and if they are all just being destroyed once they make it 20 miles into Ukraine.
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03-01-2022, 05:36 PM | #225 | |
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Democracy helps, doing what you can with your own natural resources help, but it does not at all solve this or make it work, for a couple reasons. What happens when different democratic nations decide they have different interests from each other? Italy and other countries may be benevolent to San Marino, but they still absolutely have the economic power to tell San Marino to go pound sand if they wish. Same with Italy/Germany, UK/US, whatever. Even more fundamentally though, this only works if there are enough democracies to control world resources. There are not. Take aluminum for example. China produces almost 10x as much as the second-largest producer. In terms of global reserves, neither the US or anyone in Europe outside of Russia is in the Top 10. Australia is, so they can help quite a bit, but they produce less than a 20th of what China does. There are many resources this is true for. The point is, unless democratic countries completely dominate the globe to the point where authoritarian ones are non-factors (which would make this entire conversation academic), there are key resources that any modern society relies upon that they can't make themselves in sufficient quantities because there simply aren't physically enough of those resources in those countries to meet the demand. It's admittedly simplistic, binary, and misleading to divide the world into free/authoritarian segments, but even under that view each relies on the other - neither is or can be self-sufficient. They can get closer than they are, but the mutual dependence is just a fact of life. This is one part of why we're going to continue to have issues until we realize the necessity, as a species, of a global government. Last edited by Brian Swartz : 03-01-2022 at 05:37 PM. |
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03-01-2022, 06:01 PM | #226 | |
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I don't know. I still don't buy how the Federation somehow survived the onslaught of the Borg. How would this necessity work? Who decides who is in power and, more importantly, who keeps the Putins and the Kings George from abusing that power? What do we do about the people who feel oppressed under such a government? When Yugoslavia fell, it broke into so many pieces and factions we may still be counting them 100 years from now. Europe, with its 44 countries, and counting, at least is figuring out that there needs to be some sort of union. But any further than that and the problems become severe. As for resources - the idea is that you do your part. If you have something to trade, you're in the game or you're reliant on someone who is in the game. We've created this China monster - 1.5 billion people who live under communist control - because we insist that they use those people as slaves to mine what we're no longer willing to mine and sew together what we're no longer willing to sew together and burn the fuels that we're no longer willing to burn. I don't know how it all works, but there's a shift coming and China's version of a world government is not one I think we can share. |
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03-01-2022, 06:53 PM | #227 |
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Another one bounces.
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03-01-2022, 07:09 PM | #228 |
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My understanding is that Russia doesn't have complete air superiority. Ukraine still has many air defenses operating, and have been very successfully using drones to take out Russian units. I don't know if they could keep planes flying for long, though. Are there still operable airports in the west?
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03-01-2022, 07:11 PM | #229 |
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There is a claim right now that a 600 vehicle convoy was taken out by Ukrainian air along with ground troops. That number seems crazy big. I will need to see some real proof on that.
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03-01-2022, 07:26 PM | #230 | |
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I saw that. But even if true, its not that "big" one going south towards Kyiv. |
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03-01-2022, 08:02 PM | #231 | ||
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Apparently we are still importing a lot of oil from Russia.
Ukraine: Joe Manchin slams 'hypocritical' White House for buying 500k Russian oil barrels a day | Daily Mail Online Quote:
Yes, gas prices will go up. Yes, it'll be a negative to mid-terms. But it is the right thing to do. Go find more oil & gas somewhere else. Quote:
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03-01-2022, 08:24 PM | #232 | |
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"A lot" is probably not the right term to keep numbers in perspective.
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03-01-2022, 08:28 PM | #233 |
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03-01-2022, 08:32 PM | #234 |
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03-01-2022, 08:38 PM | #235 |
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Agreed with both of you. We should stop buying it. No, it isn't a lot by the relevant comparison (how much we buy overall).
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03-01-2022, 08:38 PM | #236 |
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03-01-2022, 09:29 PM | #237 |
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Biden’s “go get em” has cause some confusion for the non-US redditors in the r/world news. Some thinking specifically targeting Putin.
Thankfully some US redditors put that to rest. A little comic relief in a tense situation. |
03-01-2022, 09:41 PM | #238 | |
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Manchin is the hypocrite here. He screamed about inflation and is now advocating for a policy that would spike inflation. He wants energy independence but voted no on a bill that would have pushed us toward it. Also worth noting that the United States exports more oil than it imports from Russia. And that Manchin's buddies in Saudi Arabia cut production to drive up prices. All Manchin wants is higher domestic energy costs because he is heavily invested in the industry and receives most of his political donations from the industry. He does not give one zero fuck about Russia or Ukraine (and I doubt he could point out either on a map). |
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03-01-2022, 09:43 PM | #239 |
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In other Manchin news, here's the company his crook daughter ran.
EpiPen antitrust litigation settled; Viatris to pay $264 million | Reuters |
03-01-2022, 10:36 PM | #240 | |
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I have been totally wondering if the Ukraine/Russia thing is anything like the China/Taiwan thing. |
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03-02-2022, 06:24 AM | #241 |
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To answer my own question earlier, yes Ukraine still have active airports and active planes still flying. This article talks about how baffling it is that the Russian have not gain air superiority yet, and they don't seem to be willing to invest the equipment to do so. That just seems strange. Are the Russian's holding back aircraft in fear of a NATO attack? What other reason would there be for Russia committing such a small amount of their air force to the conflict?
What happened to Russia's Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped | Reuters |
03-02-2022, 07:50 AM | #242 |
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It looks as if the Ukrainians are doing a counter-offensive to slow down or push back the Russian advance. Reports are they have taken parts of Horlivka that has been under Russian control for 8 years.
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03-02-2022, 08:03 AM | #243 |
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03-02-2022, 08:53 AM | #244 |
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Anyone else want to see the Ukraine start invading Russia?
(Not being serious…) |
03-02-2022, 09:11 AM | #245 | |
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No, but it would be interesting (though unrealistic) if they somehow were able to fend off the attack and also take back Crimea SI
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03-02-2022, 09:23 AM | #246 |
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It would be some kind of poetic justice if Ukraine took back Crimea
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03-02-2022, 10:07 AM | #247 |
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Couple videos in case anyone is struggling to understand the larger Russian strategy. The second video is from 6 years ago and is 100% accurate still.
Would Putin have invaded with trump in office? Probably not. The trump policies were pushing the Russian position on the world, devaluing NATO and working to put Ukraine in a vice via tit for tat world comments and political commentary. Why attack when the President of the United States will help you do it? The Lavrov who is saying WW3 will be nuclear is the same Lavrov that trump gave classified information to that had been withheld from allies (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...69_story.html). He was basically working as a Russian agent in terms of furthering Russian policy. So no, they wouldn't have needed to attack. In addition: 1. Said it was Ukraine who interfered in the 2016 election 2. Kicked out the US Ambassador to the Ukraine and smeared her. 3. Froze military assets 4. Denied a WH meeting with Zelensky 5. Turned over all policy to Guiliani, and made him the point person for all things Ukraine. Not Sec State. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ukraine-putin/)
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03-02-2022, 12:09 PM | #248 |
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FWIW, Euronews interviewed 4 Russians.
Essentially 1-2-1 with the 2 in the middle leaning pro-War. Interesting perspectives from common people. What do Russians think of Putin's invasion of Ukraine? | Euronews |
03-02-2022, 12:09 PM | #249 |
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The Russians heavily shelled Kharkiv along with a paratrooper assault. There is a school in Kharkiv that has a larger Indian student population, and they are now trapped in an underground shelter. Putin is claiming the students are hostages being used as human shields, and the Russians are simply trying free them. Lots of Indians are pretty upset and blaming the Ukrainians for the situation. If those silly Ukrainians would just stop bombing themselves.
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03-02-2022, 12:37 PM | #250 | |
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I have wondered if this would have played out more in Putin's favor if he had started this while Trump was in office. It's clear why he didn't, but I don't think there's any chance the US uses it's intel as effectively and I seriously doubt Trump would have been willing to work with NATO. On a side note, Newsmax had Bolton on as they were trying to squash the narrative that Trump wasn't tough enough on Russia. I thought Bolton played the interview pretty well. He didn't push back too hard on what they were wanting to strongly push other than point out a lot of what they were listing off as things Trump did to hurt Russia were actually Congressional decisions. Instead he pointed out that Trump had no understanding of history and therefore went into these situations ignorant and blind. He also said every decision Trump made was based on how it would benefit him personally and listed off the issues surrounding the first impeachment and withholding of aid. It seemed to catch the interviewer off guard and he wasn't prepared to defend Trump in that manner and largely ended up looking like he agreed or deferred to Bolton on those points. Yes Bolton is a piece of shit, ect but it was interesting to see how he handled that interview. |
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