Werewolf LXXXII - Cops and Robbers (Day 3 Deadline 4 PM EST Thursday)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Well phooey, damn earthlings and your nasty diseases.....

i see dead people...

[PackerFanatic]

Render being the cyborg also helps us, since the robbers didn't eliminate a good guy. So we are 1-up now guys, let keep it up tomorrow

[path12]

Man, what a nice first day/night! Can we top it off with a robber scan?

[SnDvls]

I think it's funny they took out the cyborg. It tells me that they didn't know of eachother and therefore couldn't vote in a block.

It also leads me to think they were trying to frame someone for the death too...ha ha you stupid robbers you just killed a tin can and kept our customer to robber ratio the same

[EagleFan]

Not exactly expected.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I think it's funny they took out the cyborg. It tells me that they didn't know of eachother and therefore couldn't vote in a block.

It also leads me to think they were trying to frame someone for the death too

Render didnt vote at all so I'm not sure them voting in a block is of any relevance, unless you are suggesting the robbers cant communicate.

In terms of framing someone I would be curious to hear your thoughts on that because I thought the same thing.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I think it's funny they took out the cyborg. It tells me that they didn't know of eachother and therefore couldn't vote in a block.

It also leads me to think they were trying to frame someone for the death too...ha ha you stupid robbers you just killed a tin can and kept our customer to robber ratio the same

I hate to say it but posts like these always raise a red flag to me.


But yes, that is kind of funny.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Render didnt vote at all so I'm not sure them voting in a block is of any relevance, unless you are suggesting the robbers cant communicate.

In terms of framing someone I would be curious to hear your thoughts on that because I thought the same thing.

I think the robbers can talk to eachother but the robbers couldn't talk to the cyborg and vise versa.

RE: the framing...it's an old WW ploy to try and set up someone who voted for the deceased....I don't always buy it, but it has worked in the past.

[Alan T]

I am trying to make sense of the Render vote..

If they were trying to nail someone they felt had a role, there were other people that probably were better choices. Unless they felt those people might be protected or guarded, whereas Render not even being around all day might also have been expected to not have put in a protect order of any kind, thus an easier target, role or not.

Another way to look at it, is from a voting point of view. I guess it could be argued that Render's lack of voting could have drawn him attention today in a vote, thus a wolf wouldn't have wanted to kill off someone that might have drawn votes away from another wolf who might end up on the block. So in that sense, the Render kill also doesn't make much sense.

Then there is the vote-trust block that I kind of put some discredit to earlier prior to night results by stating that early votes didn't matter much as PB wasn't a leading candidate, so a wolf could have very easily hidden a vote in there. The late votes however I would give more trust to unless it was Render vs PB as a wolf vs wolf situation and Render was a more important wolf to keep around for some reason. Therefore once again, killing Render in that situation to show he was not a wolf, doesn't make much sense as it would help lead to more trust for a few individuals.... Unless that is what the wolves wanted to happen.

The people most likely to gain trust from Render's death showing that he was not a wolf were Path and Saldana. So looking closer at the situation that both voted in...

Saldana's vote pretty much put it away, no question about it. Path's vote was a bit more difficult to clearly define. Path acknowledged in his vote that even if he did vote for Render there, Render's vote would have put PB back on the lynch block and as we now know PB was a wolf, that would have made Path look very very bad. Since Render was not a wolf, they would not have known he wasn't going to show up to vote at all, so they called uncle there and Path placed a calculated vote on PB there instead. It was a lose-lose situation for Path, and he tried to make the most of it.. but the full reward of trust wasn't going to happen until Render died (which happened last night)..

So maybe it is my hesitance to vote for Saldana early lately in games, but right now my vote looks like it will be going on Path unless someone comes out with some reason that there is a better choice for today.

[illinifan999]

Awesome job guys!

[claphamsa]

I think its funny that he even incuded an evil cyborg, it was an inside joke....

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I think its funny that he even incuded an evil cyborg, it was an inside joke....

Is this the first time that we've actually implemented that role? I think it might be.

[jeheinz72]

It was in the first one (Sean705)

[The Jackal]

haha, that's right

[The Jackal]

I tend to see wolves throwing first votes on fellow wolves on day 1 to try and clear themselves for later on, and love it when it backfires and a wolf gets nailed. EF is on my radar because of it, and I like the analysis that Alan presented about path.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I tend to see wolves throwing first votes on fellow wolves on day 1 to try and clear themselves for later on, and love it when it backfires and a wolf gets nailed. EF is on my radar because of it, and I like the analysis that Alan presented about path.

yeah, I don't think EF would necessarily be a bad vote today either. PB really didn't have much play at all on day one until I pointed out some of his play that seemed really off to me. EF's vote didn't really push anyone else to vote for him and his comments wern't ones to really draw support from others on his vote. So Eaglefan's vote could possibly be just a lucky day 1 vote on his part prior to the suspicious posts that PurdueBrad made, or it could have been an early day 1 vote on a fellow wolf to buy trust later.

I think though that Render's death doesn't do anything to point me at EF at all, and in that case would have been just a generic random night kill that I don't understand. That could obviously be the case though.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Is this the first time that we've actually implemented that role? I think it might be.

ah reminiscing on the good old days... nothing like Creed!

[Lathum]

I think Renders death was an attempt to set me up, but maybe I am just being paranoid.

[st.cronin]

I am thinking, based on votes, that Lathum and Jackal make the most sense. I understand Alan's logic, but until more information is available I prefer to keep things simple.

VOTE JACKAL

[The Jackal]

I'm just curious, but why me? Because I didn't switch to either of the candidates late? I was around, but it was clear that PB was going to get lynched and the last two times I've switched a vote late I've gotten hammered for it on the next day.

[The Jackal]

Going to stick with my gut and go with EF for now, but I'd like to hear a little explaining from cronin. He was one of the first votes too, and they always intrigue me.

vote EF

[The Jackal]

I protected the money last night too, so, you're welcome! Disregarding my own safety and the like.

[st.cronin]

Jackal: You voted for claphamsa after PurdueBrad had his first vote. Lathum put a second vote on Render around the same time.

[The Jackal]

Fair enough, I wasn't even considering that, but.. my move from saldana to clap was a complete reaction to clap voting for me, it's not like I put it on someone randomly.

[The Jackal]

dola

not like i put it on someone randomly to deflect attention from PB, is what i meant

[st.cronin]

Hm, I hadn't noticed that you originally voted for saldana. Ok, then:

UNVOTE THE JACKAL
VOTE LATHUM

[Lathum]

the whole second vote for somebody argument is so tired out. IT is almost a more convienent excuse for a wolf to vote for someone then a telling wolf sign.

IMO the first vote on someone is more telling.

[Lathum]

dola- I am not following Cronins logic why he switched. Why does it matter to you who Jackal originaly voted for?

[st.cronin]

Because his SWITCH didn't change the vote count that PurdueBrad faced (it just changed the name of the opponent). Originally I thought his vote for clap was a vote, which would have eased some pressure on PurdueBrad.

[Lathum]

I dont see your logic but whatever.

I wish you were using better logic then the lame second vote on someone because it really gives me no way to defend myself but so be it.

Right now I am leaning towards EF, it is real easy for a wolf to cast an early vote on another wolf then be forced to leave it there or out themself.

[saldana]

i am surprised that lathum came out swinging against me as being a wolf trying to gain trust by voting for another wolf...he saw first hand the handicap of losing a wolf on day one in the last game, so i would have expected him to think the opposite...that the wolves would have done anything to try to save PB...its not like it was a done deal when i voted.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by saldana

i am surprised that lathum came out swinging against me as being a wolf trying to gain trust by voting for another wolf...he saw first hand the handicap of losing a wolf on day one in the last game, so i would have expected him to think the opposite...that the wolves would have done anything to try to save PB...its not like it was a done deal when i voted.

I already gave my reasoning for why I would likely side more with Lathum in this arguement. Prior to Render's death I would have felt a bit different.. but with Render dying, the only logical course I can follow in my head really point me to looking at you and Path. Knowing what we do about Render now.. the vote was pretty much over before either you or Path had voted, assuming all Render had to do was show up... Of course now we know that never did occur, but at the time none of us could have known that including the wolves.

I'm not pushing for your lynch today, I still think Path is the best lynch choice, even though EF does intrigue me a bit, but I think I can see where Lathum is coming from in his arguement for you.. the only problem I have with Lathum's logic is if you want to follow that course, then Path seems to be the better lynch choice than you do at least right now based on probability.

[Lathum]

i think saying I came out swinging is a little much, I just floated a theory.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Saldana's vote pretty much put it away, no question about it. Path's vote was a bit more difficult to clearly define. Path acknowledged in his vote that even if he did vote for Render there, Render's vote would have put PB back on the lynch block and as we now know PB was a wolf, that would have made Path look very very bad. Since Render was not a wolf, they would not have known he wasn't going to show up to vote at all, so they called uncle there and Path placed a calculated vote on PB there instead. It was a lose-lose situation for Path, and he tried to make the most of it.. but the full reward of trust wasn't going to happen until Render died (which happened last night)..

So maybe it is my hesitance to vote for Saldana early lately in games, but right now my vote looks like it will be going on Path unless someone comes out with some reason that there is a better choice for today.

Huh? Alan, I know that you usually find me suspicious but this is stretching it.

First, my vote broke a tie with just Render left to vote. Saldana switching later is really superfluous. As I mentioned when I made the vote, I was trying to avoid a tie and its ramifications. Knowing Render wouldn't vote for himself if he showed up, the vote had to be on Purdue.

If I had been a wolf I would have been trying to save Purdue, and likely would have done something like tie it up carelessly and vanish, hoping that there would be someone on Render's side switch over to Purdue just to avoid the tie.

Also, taking your argument, if I was a wolf, why in the hell would I kill Render that night and prove it was a wolf/villager vote? That makes no sense to me at all.

[path12]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I tend to see wolves throwing first votes on fellow wolves on day 1 to try and clear themselves for later on, and love it when it backfires and a wolf gets nailed. EF is on my radar because of it, and I like the analysis that Alan presented about path.

Yeah, but if you are a wolf you tend to put an early vote down and hope it gets lost in the shuffle. You don't put in the vote that lynches the guy.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

Yeah, but if you are a wolf you tend to put an early vote down and hope it gets lost in the shuffle. You don't put in the vote that lynches the guy.

That is not even close to being true. We've seen several wolves being the lynch vote on someone. In your case, I think the person that said it best was actually you when you voted, that Render was likely going to break your tie anyways so you just beat him to the punch. Assuming Render was going to vote, you ended up in a lose-lose situation. You either had to throw a vote on Render anyways, that would have likely been negated when Render voted later and lynching PB anyhows which would make you look real bad.. Or you vote for PB yourself as it seemed inevitable at that point anyways to try to gain trust.

It likely is just that you are west coast and got stuck in a bad time slot for your vote based on everything else occuring at that point, but based on when you voted, what the vote was and how you voted, it didn't seem like anything heroic as much as just a foregone conclusion. Maybe this is just a case of damned if you do or damned if you don't simply based on where you placed your vote because your vote there for PB would have been just as suspicious.. As for your other comment, I don't recall finding you suspicious every game, I'm not sure why you said that unless it was just being gamey. Saldana, St.Cronin, Ardent, Barkeep, etc.. those are guys I usually find pretty off and have had to adjust my gameplay around how they play just so I didn't think they were a wolf every single game. I'm not sure that I feel that way about you. I usually find good insight in your posts when you are on the villager side.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

It likely is just that you are west coast and got stuck in a bad time slot for your vote based on everything else occuring at that point, but based on when you voted, what the vote was and how you voted, it didn't seem like anything heroic as much as just a foregone conclusion. Maybe this is just a case of damned if you do or damned if you don't simply based on where you placed your vote because your vote there for PB would have been just as suspicious.. As for your other comment, I don't recall finding you suspicious every game, I'm not sure why you said that unless it was just being gamey. Saldana, St.Cronin, Ardent, Barkeep, etc.. those are guys I usually find pretty off and have had to adjust my gameplay around how they play just so I didn't think they were a wolf every single game. I'm not sure that I feel that way about you. I usually find good insight in your posts when you are on the villager side.

Well, I did forget the lynch was early and by the time I got on it was just me and Render left to vote, so that was certainly a factor. And sure, if I'd put it on Render and he was lynched I'd be questioned about that too and expect it.

As for whether you find me suspicious a lot, I'm sure I've mentioned it before but will accept that it just might seem that way to me. It's not often one breaks a tie to lynch a wolf day 1 and finds himself being questioned. I'm sure it does happen occasionally, but not often.

Anyway, just saw that after not being on here all day and had to respond before reading through the rest of the thread. I may just be tired from a hell work day.

[Lathum]

Vote EagleFan.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by path12

Yeah, but if you are a wolf you tend to put an early vote down and hope it gets lost in the shuffle. You don't put in the vote that lynches the guy.

Isn't that exactly what I said? EF put the first vote on PB, possibly hoping it'd get lost in the shuffle.

[The Jackal]

If you were talking about yourself with that quote, be clear, because most of my analysis has been towards EF, and he put that first vote down.

[Narcizo]

Jackal - vote Saldana(50)
st.cronin - vote RendeR (66)
EagleFan - vote PurdueBrad (75)
clap - vote Jackal (79)
Jackal - unvote Saldana, vote clap (82)
Lathum - vote Render (84) 2-1-1-1
illinifan - vote st.cronin (86) 2-1-1-1-1
Packer - vote Clap (87) 2-2-1-1-1
Purdue - vote Jackal (95) 2-2-2-1-1
Alan - vote Purdue (99) 2-2-2-2-1
NTN - vote clap (101) 3-2-2-2-1
Barkeep - vote RendeR (102) 3-3-2-2-1
saldana - vote Render (106) 4-3-2-2-1
SnDvls - vote Render (110) 5-3-2-2-1
Narcizo - vote Purdue (116) 5-3-3-2-1
SNDvls - unvote Render, vote Clap (119) 4-4-3-2-1 (clap tied with Render)
Packer - unvote clap, vote Purdue (122) 4-4-3-2-1 (PB tied with Render)
clap - unvote Jackal, vote Purdue (125) 5-4-3-1-1
Purdue - unvote Jackal, vote Render (127) 5-5-3-1
Path - vote Purdue (146) 6-5-3-1
Saldana - unvote Render, vote Purdue (165) 7-4-3-1

[The Jackal]

Thanks Narcizo.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by path12

If I had been a wolf I would have been trying to save Purdue, and likely would have done something like tie it up carelessly and vanish, hoping that there would be someone on Render's side switch over to Purdue just to avoid the tie.

Notice I'm not voting for you, but I don't buy this argument at all. I've been involved in first day wolf lynches plenty, and when it gets bad wolves have to scramble. There's nothing that a wolf wouldn't do day 1 to save themself or protect themself one way or the other. In fact, when it looks the worse, the general consensus is to try and save the wolves that aren't on the radar at all and bury the wolves that are.

[The Jackal]

I know it's been said but the killing of RendeR, hell of a curveball from the wolves. Here's what I figure:

They got screwed day 1 - PB gets nailed. Maybe someone else was on the radar? They went after someone that they'd figure no one would protect. Why would someone protect RendeR? He was just as good a case as PB day 1. They would be near toast with a lack of night kill night 1, so RendeR was an easy target.

[The Jackal]

Maybe I exaggerated with the near toast, there's clearly more than two wolves, but still, with everyone being able to protect themselves, I'm sure they wanted to nail a kill, and RendeR, let's be honest - who would have protected him besides himself?

[The Jackal]

Talking to myself at 3 in the morning sucks.. I'll be curious to hear what people think when I wake up.

[The Jackal]

FWIW path your vote on PB at the time made me trust you, and I'm willing to let that trust run at least one day, possibly more.

[The Jackal]

And I know I said I liked Alan's reasoning before, but -at the time- path's vote was important and if he's a wolf he'll be drawn and quartered soon enough. I just think it was more of a villager move to nail that in the coffin when RendeR wasn't even around.

[The Jackal]

If both EF and path are wolves, boy did they screw up. What do the rest of you think?

[The Jackal]

And if you're wondering, yes, I owned the hockey draft. Molly stole a few of my picks, and I completely credit her since Lathum probably advised her to take Johnny Oduya and some other piece of crap devils.