WW LXXXIV -- Life Contingencies (GAME OVER)

[jeheinz72]

You guys thought you lynched me but actually I'm playing both as myself and Hannibal.

It makes it easy to be a good villager when I know who the wolves are.

[Hannibal Lecter]

1. I have no idea, I could check, its a large number.
2. Yes, sorry no anagram.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

You guys thought you lynched me but actually I'm playing both as myself and Hannibal.

It makes it easy to be a good villager when I know who the wolves are.

You caught me I am Bek.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

You guys thought you lynched me but actually I'm playing both as myself and Hannibal.

It makes it easy to be a good villager when I know who the wolves are.

Two-timing bastard.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

You guys thought you lynched me but actually I'm playing both as myself and Hannibal.

It makes it easy to be a good villager when I know who the wolves are.

we don't joke about these sort of things.

[Lathum]

and sorry to ruin the fun but Hannibel is Saldana.

I owed him that.

[The Jackal]

By the way.. enough of this "Jackyl" business, I use my hands, not a chainsaw:

[Hannibal Lecter]

Mr. Hoops, I am a College Starter.

[hoopsguy]

It appears that Lathum has ruined our game.

[Barkeep49]

Which is too bad. I was enjoying the game.

[RendeR]

Color me confused, but meh, whats it matter?

[Hannibal Lecter]

Please note Lathums Id, do you really believe anything contrived in his pea sized brain?

[hoopsguy]

RendeR, do you have a more interesting way to pass the time while we wait for Passacaglia to call off the rout?

[RendeR]

I'm trying to keep breathing from one moment to the next and still manage to work.....so..no, not really.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

we don't joke about these sort of things.

Sure we do. What good is history if we can't laugh at it.

[Passacaglia]

I've got 7 votes for The Jackal, and one for Hannibal.

You lynch The Jackal, who turns out to be a WOLF!

[Hannibal Lecter]

Oh there is a 3rd wolf? interesting!

[Lathum]

umm, so no game over?

[Lathum]

perhaps there was a conversion last night?

[Hannibal Lecter]

There is no mention of that it in the rules. But that does not eliminate it from happening.

[hoopsguy]

OK, same drill as last time. We'll have anywhere from 2-4 cleared people tomorrow, keep whittling away the non-cleared. This should be pretty much a paint-by-numbers approach to the win.

[Passacaglia]

Morning arrives, and you awake to find both Barkeep49 and Hannibal Lecter missing. Barkeep49 was the bodyguard! Hannibal Lecter was the Seer!

[hoopsguy]

OK, this is a surprise result. 3 wolves in a 9 person game, with a multi-kill option? Really? I know we were rolling them early, but did you have to invoke some kind of anti-slaughter rule logic?

[hoopsguy]

I'm not going to be around the thread all that much today. I haven't really done extensive vote/post analysis, in part because I thought the game was over when Hannibal nailed Jackal yesterday. I'll try to get some of that done today, time permitting.

In the meantime, I guess we have a ballgame on our hands again.

[Hannibal Lecter]

Unfortunate.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, in the interest of spreading things out -

vote path

If we end up with 1 vote on everyone, that's almost entirely leaving it up to luck? Unless the Duke wants to get crazy early on.

I should be around all night.

Looking at D1 stuff, Heinz voted BK - nothing to learn there.

In a game where leaving a lose vote out there means that there is a % chance that they are lynched, I don't think that the wolves would vote one of their own.

Hopefully I'm not giving the wolves too much credit here, but if this vote stayed on Path (at least until 8:50 or so) then he nudges up in trust for me today.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I have no role

Immediately follows along with the plan I put forward. Comes out with "no role" which probably puts him at a little higher risk of a D1 lynch.

This, coupled with him asking to be scanned on N1, makes me put Lathum a little higher on the trust spectrum as well.

So, that leaves RendeR and PackerFanatic as guys I haven't found a reason to back so far. I'm running out of time this morning, but if I can't find some kind of reason to make me less suspicious then I would probably recommend looking at these two for a run-off today.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I am a villager with no role.

Comes in after Heinz/Jackal have already split on their reveals. Nothing substantial that I take from this one way or the other at this point.

Kinda sucks that I give Lathum credit for being first, and not PF, but Lathum's response was immediate and did not suggest that there was time to collaborate with other wolves on the best way to counter my plan. The same is not necessarily true for PF.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also worth considering - if there are two starting wolves, and there are no weird "double kill" options (no reason to believe this) then they would have to get to 2-1.

Well, neither of these assumptions worked out very well

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

VOTE RENDER

Just so I get a vote in, I will try and get back after real voting tonight

2nd vote on RendeR, following Path's earlier vote.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Also I really don;t like the double up vote on me for no reason other than me not being able to get in here today. So this is purely defensive, no offense Lathum old friend.

VOTE LATHUM

Originally Posted by Lathum

unvote hannibel lechter
vote render

A pair of defensive votes, setting up the leading choices for the vote prior to the late fireworks. Not sure there is anything to take from either player that is inherently wolfish.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Looks like RendeR is our 40%er for the night

Jackal is pushing RendeR - trying to help Lathum or just happy that it isn't a wolf?

I don't think that he makes this post if RendeR is a wolf.

So, I've got a fraction of D1 trust for three of the non-cleared players. Although I'm not married to it, at this point I think I'm going to

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[PackerFanatic]

I've barely had enough time to check in and see how things are going, let alone talk with other wolves. I responded to the reveal as soon as I got here.

[hoopsguy]

Packer, I'm all for people building stronger cases for their votes than the one I've put together. Like I said, I'm willing to be talked out of this one but there should be some kind of a counter-argument made if that is the goal.

[RendeR]

I am starting to feel better folks, this cold has kicked my ass this week. I think Hoops is doing a pretty good job in the latest vote review here. THough I'm not sure I'd put so much faith in the wolves not voting for one of their own, even with the randomness involved I think they'd have tried to get one of their own trusted that way as soon as possible figuring if they get screwed by the dice then the game is pretty much over either way.

Based on what he's posted so far I'm in agreement though, lets take down Packer tonight and see if the fur finally falls dead.

[RendeR]

I'm in the same boat as you Packer, I've been sick all week and haven't logged in or posted much at all. No time to interact with the other wolves if I were one either. Do you have anything on anyone else that might give us reason to look at say, path or Lathum? Hoops trusts them a little more than us but I'm not sure I agree totally with his reasoning. I give the wolves far more credit than I probably should though.

[PackerFanatic]

I have nothing else than what has already been posted, hence my bad position here.

[path12]

I expected the game to be over with last night as well. We should be able to figure this one out, there's only four and a half pages. I will have some time later this morning to dig in.

[hoopsguy]

I know everyone has lives, and other stuff to do, blah blah blah.

If we miss today tomorrow is not going to be any easier if no one posts today.

No seer is coming along to make this easier for the rest of us. No bodyguard is going to get a block and reveal who was the attacker. We remaining villagers get to solve this one on our own.

Assuming there is only one wolf left, they have to be the last person standing based on the rules. So they are going to have to grind it out the rest of the way.

[hoopsguy]

You will be told who you protect, and you will know you have protected successfully if there is no kill (this means there are no conversions)

I initially took this to mean that conversion was not in the game. This is why I haven't wasted any time speculating about a conversion, lack of a kill on N1, etc. If others read it differently, let me know.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

The wolves make their kill at night. They will give me a list of players, and a percentage for each player. This will be the percent chance that player has of dying from the wolves that night. There can be as many players on the list as you want, but the percentages must add to exactly 100%, and no player may have a percentage greater than 40% (this number may be changed without announcement to the village as we approach endgame).

I'm going to read this as evidence that the two night kills were not a special ability or a sign of two wolves, rather that if random.org is nice to the wolves that more than one kill per night may occur.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Morning comes, and you wake up to find everyone all in one piece.

Day 2 ends 9 PM Eastern!

Speculating some more -- possibly if the kill% number is not rolled one night then there is a chance for multiple kills in later nights?

[path12]

OK, just reread the entire thread. Not a lot to go on especially after day 1 because of the early call of Jackal being bad.

So we've got five players left. hoops is good. I know I am a villager, granted nobody else can bank on that. So that leaves three.

The wolf that is left (has to be just one, right?) has to get past everyone and be last standing. He is going to kill hoops tonight I'd imagine. If my speculation above is on target, then I think I'd try and focus as high a percentage as possible on one target and try and get a guaranteed kill, rather than try and stay alive in a dwindling lynch pool and try for multiple targets at night.

Lathum has struck me as a villager thus far, though his comment about a conversion this morning hit me odd for some reason. But for now he is my least likely of the three.

Packer and RendeR are pretty much a tossup in my mind. Packer came in second twice so far, both in declaring he had no role and in his second vote for RendeR day 1. RendeR just hasn't been around much and therefore hasn't left much of a trail to analyze.

My call for today then is between RendeR and PackerFanatic....

I don't recall offhand whether it is possible for a lynch not to occur with bad rolls or if it has to happen and the % of votes just determines which candidate it is. If the former is true we should gather around one candidate. If the latter then two would be fine.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by path12

I'm going to read this as evidence that the two night kills were not a special ability or a sign of two wolves, rather that if random.org is nice to the wolves that more than one kill per night may occur.

I feel I should clarify at this point. The intent of the rules were such that only one kill was possible each night, but two kills were made last night due to GM error.

[Lathum]

not a whole lot to analyze.

vote Packerfanatic

[hoopsguy]

Packer, let's assume you are a villager. Who do you think is the most likely to be a wolf? Why?

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE RENDER

I can't just let it be a landslide on me.

[hoopsguy]

Packer, I'm potentially willing to be talked into switching. But a vote + "I won't let it be a landslide" is not what I would consider a compelling argument.

I don't think any of the others had a vote, so what made you pick RendeR instead of Path or Lathum?

[PackerFanatic]

I have no good reason to really go after anyone, to be honest, and I don't have the time right now to read back through the thread. I probably won't be able to before deadline either, as well are celebrating my daughter's first birthday tonight. I just wanted to get a vote out so someone else had a chance to get lynched too, heh. I know I played this like crap, but that is the best I can do.

[RendeR]

I'm going to go with my gut right now. Lathum won;t like it but alas such is our WW relationship

Lathum's vote was on hannibal early then he switched to me when I voted for him. I can't shake the feeling that his vote on hannibal wasn't a random choice.

VOTE LATHUM