2020 Democratic Primaries/General Election Thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

What’s the deal with a contested convention, anyway? - POLITICO

Possibly, but super delegates alone can't outdo pledged delegates, so you'd need some of the candidates to release their pledged delegates to vote for someone else (pledged delegates can generally do what they want, but tend to be very very loyal to their candidate).

Novel idea but what if we just gave the nomination to the person who got the most votes. Imagine explaining this process to a foreigner in a real democracy.

Originally Posted by Edward64

No surprise in treating the Democratic party in contempt.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/phot...n-vermont.html

They should absolutely be held in contempt. They lost an election to a game show host and never get anything accomplished when they rarely pull off a win.

The fact they kept on many of the same people who were part of that disaster shows how much contempt they have for their base.

[GrantDawg]

Sanders holds a press conference that seems to be promising to go really negative going forward. That'll be the way to get people to like you.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[stevew]

8 more weeks til we vote in Pennsylvania. I’m assuming this will be over and I won’t have to waste my time voting for whichever “D” will get crushed in my house district.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

My guess is he believes Biden is now a viable candidate and his continuation will hurt Biden's chances.

The MSM have been saying Bloomberg was primarily in it to defeat Trump, not that he needed to be President. He jumped in because he saw Biden flailing and thought he could be the alternative if Biden crashes.

I don't believe this for a second. He wanted to be President.

But we can find out quickly if it was really about beating Trump. If it is, he'll be pouring equal amounts of money into the Democratic nominee.

Politics aside, if I was a billionaire relentlessly mocked by Trump, I'd probably just drop a billion out of spite to remove him.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by stevew

8 more weeks til we vote in Pennsylvania. I’m assuming this will be over and I won’t have to waste my time voting for whichever “D” will get crushed in my house district.

Samesies in the Bluegrass.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't believe this for a second. He wanted to be President.

But we can find out quickly if it was really about beating Trump. If it is, he'll be pouring equal amounts of money into the Democratic nominee.

Politics aside, if I was a billionaire relentlessly mocked by Trump, I'd probably just drop a billion out of spite to remove him.

I guess we'll have an answer in a few months, but I'd wager that he will do just that.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't believe this for a second. He wanted to be President.

But we can find out quickly if it was really about beating Trump. If it is, he'll be pouring equal amounts of money into the Democratic nominee.

Politics aside, if I was a billionaire relentlessly mocked by Trump, I'd probably just drop a billion out of spite to remove him.

I think he feared a Bernie presidency would cost him more than $500 million out of his fortune.

[albionmoonlight]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...ercuts-itself/

How can one have been through the 2016 election and sincerely think that “these subtle contradictions in Trump’s message will certainly doom him with the electorate.”

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It shouldn't take you 6 hours to vote anywhere. I don't care if it's open on the weekends. It's an act of voter suppression to make it much harder to vote than others. This probably depressed Biden's margin in Texas a lot.

Also if people in those areas started voting early like you suggest, they would just eliminate those days. Or not allow it to be hosted in that area.

I should also add if you voted early there is a chance you voted for a candidate who dropped out before the election.

I had the option to mail it in, drop it off Friday - Monday, and even Tuesday, had I not wanted to try the new electronic polls, still could have dropped it off instead of waiting in said short wait of a line. Of which candidates dropping out made no difference.

I was merely speaking on behalf of someone who lives in California

[Vegas Vic]

Joe Biden’s comeback is nothing short of remarkable. Many of you are probably too young (or perhaps weren’t even born) when Biden first ran for President in 1988. He’s much wiser and more politically savvy than he was back then, and he’s built a strong coalition over the years.

Of course, as we’ve seen, he’s lost some of his mental sharpness. Back in 1988, he was sharp as a tack, and he frequently memorized other great political speeches and inserted them into his own.

[tarcone]

How did he lose to Dukakis? That guy was a buffoon.

Biden does seem really sharp and exactly what the dems need now. Too bad he is fumbling and not real clear.

Age is a bitch

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Biden does seem really sharp and exactly what the dems need now. Too bad he is fumbling and not real clear.

Age is a bitch

The thing with Biden is, I swear he looks older everytime I see him on stage. They need to hire a good makeup artist, give him some hair color (or what was that 90's thing that poofed up the hair) and a nice tan.

[Kodos]

Maybe some nice orange toner would help him look youthful.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Novel idea but what if we just gave the nomination to the person who got the most votes. Imagine explaining this process to a foreigner in a real democracy.

Uh... people in Parliamentary Democracies are quite aware of the situations where the party with the most votes, but not a majority, doesn't get to be the government.

[ISiddiqui]

Warren is out

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by tarcone

How did he lose to Dukakis?

Dirty politics... no seriously.

1988 Democratic Party presidential primaries - Wikipedia

Delaware Senator Joe Biden led a highly competitive campaign which ended in controversy after he was accused of plagiarizing a speech by Neil Kinnock, then-leader of the British Labour Party.[7] Though Biden had correctly credited the original author in all speeches but one, the one of which he failed to make mention of the originator was caught on video and sent to the press by members of the Dukakis campaign. In the video Biden is filmed repeating a stump speech by Kinnock, with only minor modifications. Allegations were also leaked to the press that Biden had been guilty of plagiarism years before, in law school. Though Biden professed his integrity, the impression lingering in the media as the result of this double punch would lead him to drop out of the race. Dukakis later acknowledged that his campaign was responsible for leaking the tape, and two members of his staff resigned. The Delaware Supreme Court's Board on Professional Responsibility would later clear Biden of the law school plagiarism charges.[8]

Back then such a scandal ended your Presidential campaign.

Then karma got Dukakis as Lee Atwater spread rumors that he had mental health issues - it was so bad that Atwater actually apologized to Dukakis for how nasty it got sometime later.

Dukakis was also Governor of Massachusetts when it was really, really economically successful: Massachusetts Miracle - Wikipedia

[JPhillips]

It's just one poll, but a new FL poll shows Biden leading Sanders 61-12 with another 14 going to Bloomberg. Biden has a decent chance of getting all the FL delegates.

[HerRealName]

Dukakis also had DLC support as the most electable candidate.

I'm sorry to see Warren go. She earned my vote as the candidate I thought would make the best president.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by HerRealName

Dukakis also had DLC support as the most electable candidate.

?

That would have been Gore in the 1988 Democratic Primaries (after Senator Hart's extramarital affairs torpedoed his candidacy).

Here is a 538 article from 2011:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-25-years-ago/

Still, when the Democrats nominated another liberal candidate in 1988 in Michael Dukakis, and took another loss — the Southern candidates the D.L.C. would have preferred, like Dick Gephardt and Al Gore, failed to gain enough momentum on Super Tuesday as Jesse Jackson won many Southern states instead — the D.L.C.’s argument became even stronger. And in 1992, they got their man — Bill Clinton, who had been chairman of the D.L.C. in 1990 and 1991.

[molson]

Dukakis led Bush big in the polls for a while, but the Republicans killed him with effective negative ads portraying him as too elite, liberal, and out of touch.

There was a lot of competition on the Dem side before that, but plenty of Republicans weren't excited about Bush either (he finished 3rd in Iowa and lost a bunch of other state primaries.).

[panerd]

Originally Posted by molson

Dukakis led Bush big in the polls for a while, but the Republicans killed him with effective negative ads portraying him as too elite, liberal, and out of touch.

There was a lot of competition on the Dem side before that, but plenty of Republicans weren't excited about Bush either (he finished 3rd in Iowa and lost a bunch of other state primaries.).

Yeah I remember some sort of ad with him riding in a tank. No idea what is was about but the fact that it still sticks with me 20 years later means it was effective.

[Kodos]

Yeah, I was just going to bring up the tank picture as well.

[molson]

Doesn't this look like a guy who can bring down the Soviets?

https://media2.s-nbcnews.com/j/MSNBC...ktop_large.jpg

Edit: The Willie Horton ads were devastating as well. Horton was a convicted murderer who committed a rape and armed robbery while on a weekend prison furlough. The state legislature had tried to ban such furloughs for convicted murderers but Dukakis vetoed it. The Simpsons parodied those ads years later, and the debates where Dukakis came off as emotionally cold. The Sideshow Bob/Mayor Quimby debates and campaign on the show were part JFK/Nixon, part Bush/Dukakis.

[Ben E Lou]

He looked like a total out of place doofus on that tank, and he said he wouldn't want to have a man who raped and murdered his wife executed. And that was that.

[Ben E Lou]

The moment that sunk Dukakis in 1988 - Video on NBCNews.com

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

He looked like a total out of place doofus on that tank, and he said he wouldn't want to have a man who raped and murdered his wife executed. And that was that.

Yeah I remember that as well. This was also the election with Dan Quayle and potatoe. I think this was around the time I started watching SNL and becoming somewhat cognizant of what is going on nationally. Probably why it is so vivid in my mind. My first voting election wasn't until Bush/Clinton.

[Ben E Lou]

Double dola: I saw a documentary where someone being interviewed said that Lee Atwater was literally jumping up and down and high-fiving people when Dukakis gave that answer.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by panerd

Yeah I remember that as well. This was also the election with Dan Quayle and potatoe. I think this was around the time I started watching SNL and becoming somewhat cognizant of what is going on nationally. Probably why it is so vivid in my mind. My first voting election wasn't until Bush/Clinton.

Bush/Dukakis was my first general.

[molson]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

and he said he wouldn't want to have a man who raped and murdered his wife executed. And that was that.

The Simpsons were all over that one too.

The Springfield Mayoral Debate (The Simpsons) - YouTube

I was in 2nd grade in '88, I remember my class was a part of some college students' film project about how kids view presidential elections. We got to vote at the end. I voted Dukakis. He won our class in a landslide (this was in Massachusetts).

[ISiddiqui]

The sad part about Dukakis and the tank was that it easily could have been far, far better if he hadn't wore the helmet. That coupled with the fact that Dukakis was indeed a veteran - he served in Korea as a radio operator for the Army.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

The sad part about Dukakis and the tank was that it easily could have been far, far better if he hadn't wore the helmet. That coupled with the fact that Dukakis was indeed a veteran - he served in Korea as a radio operator for the Army.

Just like John Kerry getting ridiculed for actually serving and being injured in a war while Bush effectively dodged the draft. The Republicans are just light years better at the messaging and campaigning on stuff like this.

[HerRealName]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

?

That would have been Gore in the 1988 Democratic Primaries (after Senator Hart's extramarital affairs torpedoed his candidacy).

Here is a 538 article from 2011:

Are Democrats Better Off Than They Were 25 Years Ago? | FiveThirtyEight

Jesse jackson was the candidate earning support on the left in 88. Maybe the Citations Needed podcast led me astray on Dukakis.

Some articles seem to support Dukakis as the establishment choice after Jacson's Super Tuesday success and others treat Dukakis like he was very far left.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by panerd

Just like John Kerry getting ridiculed for actually serving and being injured in a war while Bush effectively dodged the draft. The Republicans are just light years better at the messaging and campaigning on stuff like this.

Republicans play chess. Democrats play Candy Land.

[Galaril]

It is interesting that Warren has not endorsed anyone yet. That tells me she is open to being "persuaded" or she is not going to endorse anyone before the convention.

Let the bidding begin guys...at Cabinet post....

[molson]

Originally Posted by panerd

Just like John Kerry getting ridiculed for actually serving and being injured in a war while Bush effectively dodged the draft. The Republicans are just light years better at the messaging and campaigning on stuff like this.

Also Yale alum Bush mocking Dukakis for going to Harvard and thus being too "elite".

[panerd]

Originally Posted by Galaril

It is interesting that Warren has not endorsed anyone yet. That tells me she is open to being "persuaded" or she is not going to endorse anyone before the convention.

Let the bidding begin guys...at Cabinet post....

She seems like a good vice presidential candidate for both actually. She might as well stay out of the endorsing so she can go with either one.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

If I recall correctly, in VA you can just walk in and ask for either Party's ballot. If I'm wrong, and there's some actual effort required to switch in a primary in Virginia, then it's likely the latter. But if I'm right, then further data would be required to assess that.

Sounds like it may be pissed off moderate R's at least in Virginia that helped Biden mostly

Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe of Virginia attributed Democratic turnout in the state to deep disgust with the Trump presidency among Democrats and moderate Republicans.

“We have to give tremendous credit to Donald Trump,” McAuliffe said. “He has been the single biggest driver to the Democratic Party of Virginia. There are a lot of like-minded Republicans who said, ‘I can’t vote for Trump, but you got to give me somebody who we can vote for.’ Biden was always at the top of that list.

How Joe Biden Ran Up the Score in Virginia

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by panerd

She seems like a good vice presidential candidate for both actually. She might as well stay out of the endorsing so she can go with either one.

I really don't see that. Cabinet perhaps, but not as VP. You can almost guarantee a female for Biden, but someone younger, who has a chance to press on as a leader if they win, and someone who can bridge some of the other demos. Liz just doesn't bring that to the table.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Galaril

It is interesting that Warren has not endorsed anyone yet. That tells me she is open to being "persuaded" or she is not going to endorse anyone before the convention.

Let the bidding begin guys...at Cabinet post....

Back in 2016, in exchange for an endorsement Warren insisted on a wide latitude of power in deciding who would be in the cabinet if Hillary Clinton won. She was considered a 'first among equals' among the Senators who endorsed Clinton. She may want a similar role - she doesn't have to leave the Senate for that either.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I really don't see that. Cabinet perhaps, but not as VP. You can almost guarantee a female for Biden, but someone younger, who has a chance to press on as a leader if they win, and someone who can bridge some of the other demos. Liz just doesn't bring that to the table.

Kamala Harris.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Sounds like it may be pissed off moderate R's at least in Virginia that helped Biden mostly



How Joe Biden Ran Up the Score in Virginia

Interesting. So maybe what I saw from SC friends is more of a widespread thing than I would have guessed. Most definitely various versions of McAuliffe's "I can't vote for Trump, so gimme a Dem I can vote for" were the sentiments they expressed, so in that regard it lines up.



Ironically, Bernie being the front-runner for a while may have ended up helping Biden in an unexpected way: even though he's not much different from HRC, he ends up looking much more acceptable to disaffected Rs. *shurg*

[ISiddiqui]

Looks like Bernie is abandoning the South (canceling a speech in Mississippi focused on African-Americans!!) to focus on the Midwest:

Geoff Bennett on Twitter: "NEWS: Bernie Sanders is cancelling his scheduled speech in Jackson, Mississippi this Friday for stops in Michigan, a Sanders aide tells @GaryGrumbach. His speech in Jackson was aimed at reaching out to the state's African-American voters."

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Looks like Bernie is abandoning the South (canceling a speech in Mississippi focused on African-Americans!!) to focus on the Midwest:

Geoff Bennett on Twitter: "NEWS: Bernie Sanders is cancelling his scheduled speech in Jackson, Mississippi this Friday for stops in Michigan, a Sanders aide tells @GaryGrumbach. His speech in Jackson was aimed at reaching out to the state's African-American voters."

I am sure the new Biden Bloomberg machine will spin that as Sander's is not abandoning the South but instead African-Americans.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by panerd

Kamala Harris.

I really think it is going to be Stacey Abrams, at least for Biden. Biden met with her before announcing his run, and the rumor was he wanted to offer her the position then. I think she let him know she is interested, but she didn't want to limit her options before the campaign even started. Stacey gives him more (southern AA, not a former prosecuter with that baggage, in a purplish state) than Senator Harris can.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I am sure the new Biden Bloomberg machine will spin that as Sander's is not abandoning the South but instead African-Americans.

I mean after skipping the 55th anniversary of Selma, it's a TERRIBLE look. This is not the way you win the African-American vote.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I mean after skipping the 55th anniversary of Selma, it's a TERRIBLE look. This is not the way you win the African-American vote.

"They're not voting for me, so no point in bothering" ain't exactly the right move now. Biden pulled something like 55-70% of the black vote in southern states on Super Tuesday, right? This could push it to 80+ with Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi--all states where close to 50% of Dem primary voters will be black--left to vote. It's not just a terrible look; it seems really dumb.

[ISiddiqui]

He basically did the same thing in 2016 after Clinton tattooed him among black voters. Why would black voters in GA, FL, LA, and MS trust him?

[Ben E Lou]

This article speaks a bit more to black pragmatism in voting for Biden. That part resonated in thinking about many of my family members.



Why Black voters support Joe Biden - The Boston Globe



I can just hear my older siblings, cousins, and all of my living uncles saying "Ain't nobody got time for this foolishness. These white folks ain't votin' for no Bernie Sanders for no President."

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I am sure the new Biden Bloomberg machine will spin that as Sander's is not abandoning the South but instead African-Americans.

I know I would.He is a fool not to do everything he can to help him with the black vote. Writing them off equals doom.

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Ironically, Bernie being the front-runner for a while may have ended up helping Biden in an unexpected way: even though he's not much different from HRC, he ends up looking much more acceptable to disaffected Rs. *shurg*

I agree with everything except he is not much different than HRC. His politics maybe close, but he is nowhere near as hated as she was. She had decades of hatred that she needed to overcome, not to mention the gender factor.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I agree with everything except he is not much different than HRC. His politics maybe close, but he is nowhere near as hated as she was. She had decades of hatred that she needed to overcome, not to mention the gender factor.

Oh absolutely. I just meant politically. It certainly looks like a significant number of people who sat out or voted third party because they couldn't voting for HRC are now perfectly willing to vote for the same policies she would have tried to enact and judges she would have tried to confirm.