The Stock Market thread

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

CPI should be going down when the economy is flagging. It does seem like we're heading for it. Airlines are showing a substantial reduction in forward bookings and have cut hiring forecasts for this year, along with adjusting first quarter expectations. Airlines tend to be leading indicators for this very reason.

Yeah, I just saw that Delta is planning a substantial reconfiguration of their summer/fall routes. They send out "Saturday schedule emails" because that's when they usually adjust things, and we all get emails with modifications to our booked flights. I expect next Saturday (the 22nd) is going to be big.

[GrantDawg]

I guess this is as good a place as any to ask, but has anybody noticed a huge drop off in traffic at McDonald's recently? I hadn't been going to McDonald's in a quite awhile, but I was driving by one here at lunch time a couple of weeks ago and noticed it was pretty much empty. That store used to have cars in a line at the drive-through pretty much all times of the day, but at 12:15 on a weekday there was nothing. Since then I started looking as I passed different stores, and I haven't seen a single one busy. Then yesterday I was totally slammed at work, and I needed a quick place to grab a bite. I went down a row of restaurant, and they all had cars wrapped around their buildings except for one. McDonald's. Drove up in out, without seeing another customer. Weird.

[Lathum]

It’s gotten stupid expensive. I stopped and got my son dinner the other night and it was $19. It was convenient but for a few bucks more I could have done five guys.

[Passacaglia]

Maybe they finally hired enough people to run it well?

[Edward64]

PPI below expectations, implying inflation is slowing down.

The producer price index, considered a leading indicator for pipeline inflation pressures, showed no gain for the month after jumping an upwardly revised 0.6% in January. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase.

Excluding food and energy, core PPI decreased 0.1%, also against an estimate for a 0.3% increase.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Maybe they finally hired enough people to run it well?

There were no customers there, so I imagine they have finally gotten staffing right.

[Passacaglia]

That checks out.

We got food from Potbelly yesterday, and they had three people working there, and helped everyone in the store, waiting to do any mobile orders until there was no one inside waiting. My wife was two minutes from there, and we decided to order through the app so the order could be in a little sooner, and as a result, she ended up having to wait a ton.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I guess this is as good a place as any to ask, but has anybody noticed a huge drop off in traffic at McDonald's recently? I hadn't been going to McDonald's in a quite awhile, but I was driving by one here at lunch time a couple of weeks ago and noticed it was pretty much empty. That store used to have cars in a line at the drive-through pretty much all times of the day, but at 12:15 on a weekday there was nothing. Since then I started looking as I passed different stores, and I haven't seen a single one busy. Then yesterday I was totally slammed at work, and I needed a quick place to grab a bite. I went down a row of restaurant, and they all had cars wrapped around their buildings except for one. McDonald's. Drove up in out, without seeing another customer. Weird.

My kids "cancelled" McDonald's due to their support for Israel, or something like that. Don't know if that is a widespread thing.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Kodos

My kids "cancelled" McDonald's due to their support for Israel, or something like that. Don't know if that is a widespread thing.

I can't imagine it is just that, especially in this area.

[Atocep]

My step dad's 401k has taken a beating over the last couple weeks. He was hoping to retire this year but that may not be happening now.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

My step dad's 401k has taken a beating over the last couple weeks. He was hoping to retire this year but that may not be happening now.

Who did he vote for?

[RainMaker]

The problem with McDonalds is that since they raised prices, there are just better options. I pick Chick-Fil-A, Culvers, Popeyes, Wendys and a bunch of others over them if given the choice. I only go there on the road now and that's usually just because they still do a solid breakfast (especially at airports).

Back in the day my go-to was the double cheeseburger for $0.99. You couldn't beat that.


Edit: I still think it's a massive mistake that they never went all-in on a chicken sandwich.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Who did he vote for?

Kamala. He hates Trump.

[Ghost Econ]

As I've said in the Random Thoughts thread, the only reason to go to McDs is when they have good deals in their app. Like right now I have 50% off a 10 piece nugget and free fries with a drink. I have to place 2 orders, but I can get the nuggets for $2.60 pre-tax and a large coke and large fries for $2. So after tax it's about $5 for more than enough food.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Kamala. He hates Trump.

That stinks.

I am waiting to see if any mass criticism happens at any point. My social media has been crickets from people I know who support him

[Danny]

I havent ordered anything for myself at mcdonals in at least 10 years.

Maybe once a month ill get the kids a happy meal on the way back from somewhere but thats mostly about location as there is one right off the freeway coming home. Their food stinks .

[RainMaker]

Feels like every day has the same headlines in this order.

1) Trump threatens tariffs on someone
2) Stock market down 1%
3) Trump admin says this is all fine

Also forgot that Shamrock Shake is still worth a visit every year.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Also forgot that Shamrock Shake is still worth a visit every year.

Truest statement in this thread.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Feels like every day has the same headlines in this order.

1) Trump threatens tariffs on someone
2) Stock market down 1%
3) Trump admin says this is all fine while mocking people who dare point out the facts

Added one piece that just makes the high comedy absurdist at this point.

[Danny]

A fox news correspondent actually called him out so perhaps thats a good sign

[Drake]

When Wendy's came out with the Orange Dreamsicle Frosty, I erased the existence of Shamrock Shakes from my memory.

[kingfc22]

Another fantastic day of winning!

[Ksyrup]

As much as I love shakes of many flavors, I can't justify the calories anymore. I haven't had a shake in well over 18 months.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Atocep

My step dad's 401k has taken a beating over the last couple weeks. He was hoping to retire this year but that may not be happening now.

My mom is in the same boat. She was planning to retire first of the year. Unlike your step dad though she is learning that her actions have consequences as she’s deep down the Trump tunnel.

She’s even more pissed because my father retired last year. They had a very bitter divorce about 8 years ago. He was a union worker and continues to be a lifelong democrat.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

A fox news correspondent actually called him out so perhaps thats a good sign

Are you talking about Doocy from a few days ago?

[bhlloy]

What I wonder about is even if the tariffs do result in more things being made in America, how much are we expecting to pay Americans to do these jobs making or harvesting all the cheap shit that we are all accustomed to in our everyday lives?

Presumably that part means we have to say out loud the uncomfortable bit which is that it’s not designed to make 99.9% of Americans better off, wonder when and if the other shoe ever drops there.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

What I wonder about is even if the tariffs do result in more things being made in America, how much are we expecting to pay Americans to do these jobs making or harvesting all the cheap shit that we are all accustomed to in our everyday lives?

Presumably that part means we have to say out loud the uncomfortable bit which is that it’s not designed to make 99.9% of Americans better off, wonder when and if the other shoe ever drops there.

Is our unemployment rate even high enough to manufacture everything we import here?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

What I wonder about is even if the tariffs do result in more things being made in America, how much are we expecting to pay Americans to do these jobs making or harvesting all the cheap shit that we are all accustomed to in our everyday lives?

Presumably that part means we have to say out loud the uncomfortable bit which is that it’s not designed to make 99.9% of Americans better off, wonder when and if the other shoe ever drops there.

Also throw in the fact their goal is to deport and keep out cheap labor.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

My mom is in the same boat. She was planning to retire first of the year. Unlike your step dad though she is learning that her actions have consequences as she’s deep down the Trump tunnel.

She’s even more pissed because my father retired last year. They had a very bitter divorce about 8 years ago. He was a union worker and continues to be a lifelong democrat.

So is your mom blaming Trump and the gop or is she so far down the well she is blaming everyone but the responsible parties ?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

So is your mom blaming Trump and the gop or is she so far down the well she is blaming everyone but the responsible parties ?

She’s blaming Biden.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Is our unemployment rate even high enough to manufacture everything we import here?

No, that's what makes the whole thing so dumb. It's blowing up the economy to maybe bring some $12/hour factory jobs making socks in a few years that increases the price of those socks for everyone.

The other issue is those jobs won't be coming here because he changes his mind every other day. You're not going to commit to a $100 million factory making clothes when he can just turn around in a month and remove the tariffs. The plan would maybe work if it was a committed bipartisan plan where the tariffs would gradually begin over a period of time. But building factories, materials, etc takes years and usually some kind of government investment

And the saddest part is everyone with financial background in his administration knows this. It's shit you get taught in high school economics. We learned our lesson 100 years ago but someone convinced him that McKinley was a good President. Like I said in the other thread, it's the right-wing "Great Leap Forward".

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by dubb93

She’s blaming Biden.

I truly don't know how you get through to these people.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I truly don't know how you get through to these people.

My mom and stepdad are impossible to get through at this point since he retired last year and started watching Fox new full time. They also attend a church that might as well be the Church of Donald Trump.

[dubb93]

The crazy thing is that before last year they didn’t even have TV. All of this indoctrination took place during the last election cycle. They weren’t political at all before then. If anything my mom leaned left. She definitely voted Biden the cycle before because she talked to me about it.

[dubb93]

I also think younger than the average here as I’m not quite 40 yet and my mom and step dad are in their early 60s.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Atocep

My step dad's 401k has taken a beating over the last couple weeks. He was hoping to retire this year but that may not be happening now.

I don't know your dad's personal, health & work life situation but I'll just repost what I really believe is true when considering retirement. Good luck to him

Originally Posted by Edward64

Everyone’s situation is different but what I’d say about retirement is

1) Savings (and investing) is important but at a certain point, it’s not how much you have saved, it’s how much you spend in retirement

2) Eventually, everyone figures out that time is running out and better to enjoy life vs working to buy that next toy

3) It's never enough, there's always that one more turn/year. But in reality, see #1 and #2 above

[Kodos]

3 is big. At some point, enough is enough.

[NobodyHere]

Looking good so far this morning. Let's see how Trump ruins it.

[Edward64]

I’m hopeful he’s learn to only say something 3 times a week, and definitely not on Fri

But yeah, nice day so far!

[Edward64]

Futures are down moderately.

For those that care about markets (and retirement), plan to eat a lot of corn beef and cabbage today!

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Futures are down moderately.

For those that care about markets (and retirement), plan to eat a lot of corn beef and cabbage today!

I had mine yesterday, and plan on having leftovers tomorrow. That's not going to hurt anything will it?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I had mine yesterday, and plan on having leftovers tomorrow. That's not going to hurt anything will it?

Probably not, if anything, eat moar if your diet allows.

Since I haven't eaten any yet and the market turned from moderate red to moderate green in < 2 hours, it has to be all you ... thanks.


EDIT: Fell a bit at the end but still a decent day. Ate my corn beef and cabbage tonight, and futures are in the green so good vibes for tomorrow. But then again, Trump will be talking to Putin Tue so ...

[Edward64]

Jerome has spoken. Nice relief rally

Recession cancelled (for now), but still lingering inflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/19/fed-...arch-2025.html

The group downgraded its collective outlook for economic growth and gave a bump higher to its inflation projection. Officials now see the economy accelerating at just a 1.7% pace this year, down 0.4 percentage point from the last projection in December. On inflation, core prices are expected to grow at a 2.8% annual pace, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous estimate.

2 more rate cuts planned this year

Despite the uncertain impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs as well as an ambitious fiscal policy of tax breaks and deregulation, officials said they still see another half percentage point of rate cuts through 2025.

Donald, the markets want to boom. Just keep quiet on the economic & trade stuff.

[JPhillips]

Nope. Tariffs on everything coming April 2! It's Liberation Day!

[Edward64]

Jerome, you screwed the pooch with "transitory inflation", but doing a pretty good job now. Don't cut rates until the Fed really thinks is appropriate.

Trump was not happy with the Fed’s decision, saying it should have cut interest rates rather than holding firm.

“The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy. Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, referring to reciprocal tariffs he previously said he would impose on US trading partners next month.

Jerome's term is up May 2026. I hope Trump will have settled down by then if he proposes someone new. But if not, the markets will be "uncertain".

[NobodyHere]

How much more money do I have to lose before America is Great Again?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

How much more money do I have to lose before America is Great Again?

Take it FWIW. Let's hope we're just in correction and not dipping into bear market.

On average, corrections have happened about every two years and lasted a few months. However, they can take place more or less frequently.

The average length of bear markets over the last 75 years is 11 months. One of the shortest bear markets lasted 33 days. It began in February 2020 in response to COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns across the world.

[flere-imsaho]

Edward:

[Arles]

Honestly, this is nothing. Just a small blip before we begin the next leg up. At some point we will hit an even bigger correction but the SPX will be sitting at all time highs by the end of the year (prob 6600+).

My process is to trim when stocks get way above the 200 day moving average and then deploy that cash when these 5-9% corrections occur.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Arles

Honestly, this is nothing. Just a small blip before we begin the next leg up. At some point we will hit an even bigger correction but the SPX will be sitting at all time highs by the end of the year (prob 6600+).

My process is to trim when stocks get way above the 200 day moving average and then deploy that cash when these 5-9% corrections occur.

Wouldn't call it nothing but yeah, we've had much worse.

But I'm not confident we will hit new highs by EOY and wouldn't be surprised if we get a bear market (-20%). Trump is just way too erratic. We know markets go up/down with his words & actions. All Presidents can do this, but unlike Trump, they are more "measured/careful", and Trump seemingly does it at least once a week.

Give me some hope. Why are you so optimistic?