06-30-2022, 07:14 PM | #2701 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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I don't really know who the Big 10 would go after now. Maybe sit back and see how things play out. Virginia and Notre Dame would be my top two targets in the ACC if they are able to get them out of their deals.
No one really that appealing out west. Maybe Oregon and BYU? Not sure that moves the needle though. They already got the two schools that matter for TV deals. |
06-30-2022, 07:30 PM | #2702 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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06-30-2022, 07:39 PM | #2703 |
Solecismic Software
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Canton, OH
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https://twitter.com/pac12/status/154...080640/photo/1
Ouch. That is not a strong statement. In fairness, they went from what was seemingly a strong position dominating western collegiate sports to losing their biggest media market in less than 24 hours. But I don't think you want to lead with "surprised and disappointed" and you don't want to admit you're already scrambling for "potential members." That's kinda like me every time I tried to expand what I do. Anyone want my potential card-game suite? |
06-30-2022, 07:49 PM | #2704 |
College Starter
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Wonder how quickly the ACC dissolves now. The grant of rights might be until 2035 or whatever, but if the individual schools don’t do something else soon they will all be on the outside looking in.
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06-30-2022, 08:01 PM | #2705 |
Solecismic Software
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Canton, OH
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The one thing we haven't seen is an indication that football will split from other sports.
For football, an elite league makes sense. For everything else, 16 seems like too big for a conference. Basketball gets a huge percentage of its revenue from the NCAA tournament, and that can't be controlled by these moves. For the non-revenue sports, why marry yourself to lost rivalries and increased travel costs? As much as it seems like a coup because of the media dollars, I'm not sure, ten years from now, the Big Ten is going to be happy with this. Aside from the fun of having Spartans battle Trojans, with nary an Athenian in sight (because they're busy being one of the Bulldogs of the SEC). Especially if it makes the first move toward super-conference and expands to 20 by gobbling up the other great Pac Twelve targets. The ACC is only in bad shape if the future is two super-conferences. And that's only football. We don't know what form the future will take in college football. Conference affiliation may not be part of it at all. |
06-30-2022, 08:04 PM | #2706 |
College Prospect
Join Date: Dec 2002
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Next step:
Last edited by HerRealName : 06-30-2022 at 08:05 PM. |
06-30-2022, 08:31 PM | #2707 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
Jon seems more in tune with the media rights stuff so maybe he can answer. But it sure seems like the money out there is going to be astronomical for these big conferences. Especially since some of these streaming services have money to burn. The MLS just got $250 million a year. I saw numbers of $1 billion a year being floated before UCLA and USC joined. And that doesn't include their network which just added the 2nd biggest media market and a whole lot more people paying monthly carriage fees. Maybe that bubble bursts in 5-10 years and they regret this, but that's a lot of money. Last edited by RainMaker : 06-30-2022 at 08:32 PM. |
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06-30-2022, 08:50 PM | #2708 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Quote:
Such is the desperation for content. But, like the Olympics, it's the sort of thing that can wreck a network's finances (and ad inventory) for years if the most optimistic projections aren't hit. Sooner or later, the golden goose will keel over ... and might end up taking a whole lot of network executives with it.
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06-30-2022, 11:02 PM | #2709 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Im seeing Oregon and Washington as the next 2 schools to join the B1G
WTF? Lets go to one 64 team conference. Olympic sports stay in their region, football and BB have marquee matchups weekly.
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07-01-2022, 12:20 AM | #2710 | |
Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Quote:
No less sustainable than paying coaches tens of millions of dollars. As for playing allocation, the way that med schools do match day could be fashioned for college football/basketball if someone was concerned about fairness, but you'd also need to be paying players and it seems we're still going to act like that's not good. Last edited by Young Drachma : 07-01-2022 at 12:21 AM. |
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07-01-2022, 12:45 AM | #2711 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
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It's not only "not good", it's a fucking abomination.
__________________
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07-01-2022, 01:06 AM | #2712 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago, IL
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Quote:
Yeah, seems like a lot of the regional sports networks got roasted by some bad deals. But everyone else still craves something live. Never thought I'd see the day where pro wrestling was on network TV in primetime each week. The interesting aspect are the streaming services. I don't think the conferences would allow them to buy up the rights to all the games, but I do think some of those companies would pay a stupid amount of money for just a piece. Apple is doing it with baseball. Amazon with NFL. And these companies are so big that dropping a few hundred million a year for the 3rd choice in the Big 10 is pocket change for them. Maybe I'm putting too much stock into what people are saying about Apple's interest, but that college football fan demographic seems right up their alley. |
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07-01-2022, 02:38 PM | #2713 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Report: Washington and Oregon eyeing Big Ten admittance
Washington and Oregon want in, but have been put on hold.
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07-01-2022, 04:39 PM | #2714 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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My preliminary thoughts on Division Super A College Football (or whatever you want to call it)
Get rid of the current conferences. Take the best/biggest 64 teams. 8 divisions of 8 teams each. Winner of each division goes to playoff. 4 wild card teams make playoff. Top 4 division winners get a first round bye. Would also be kind of cool to have a relegation system set up where, like, the bottom 4 teams get relegated and another 4 can join the group of 64, but I can't see the schools being on board with that. |
07-01-2022, 05:54 PM | #2715 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: The scorched Desert
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Quote:
If this was the format, I think you would almost have to have some type of relegation system, that would give the second tier schools something to play for. It would also make the bowl system more useful, because you could take the winners of 8 second tier divisions and let them play in 4 bowl games, winners get promoted. Hell, let's really make it fun and take the 8 last place place teams from tier 1, have them play in 4 bowl games and the losers get relegated. Last edited by BYU 14 : 07-01-2022 at 05:54 PM. |
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07-01-2022, 06:12 PM | #2716 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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It was predicted!
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07-01-2022, 07:35 PM | #2717 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Fox is based in LA and seems to love the Trojans. Fox owns 61% of the BTN which just added the LA market to their other huge markets. B1G loves eyeballs. Fox is also sitting in on the negotiations with the B1G and other networks when it comes to the next deal.
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07-01-2022, 07:37 PM | #2718 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
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USC and UCLA also get in on the billions and billions of research dollars that the B1G has access too. And they are excellent educational institutions. Now if the B1G would get rid of Nebby
__________________
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07-01-2022, 07:52 PM | #2719 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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And Rutgers. And Maryland.
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07-01-2022, 10:08 PM | #2720 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Quote:
The Alliance has 10 billion in grants. UCLA alone grabbed 1.4 in external grants. I'm not sure UCLA needs help in accessing grants |
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07-02-2022, 10:19 PM | #2721 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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Quote:
True. Unfortunately their athletic department is deeply in the red. They need B1G money.
__________________
Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15 |
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07-02-2022, 11:21 PM | #2722 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Concord, MA/UMass
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When does the B1G try to kick out Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland and Iowa for ND/Clemson/Washington/Oregon?
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07-03-2022, 03:14 PM | #2723 | |
Dark Cloud
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Quote:
That's not how this is going to work. Those NYC/DC tv screens aren't going to be ceded so the ACC to revive the Big East, because that's what'd happen if you did that. Washington and Oregon aren't remotely as lucrative TV markets as DC/NYC metro, sorry. Who cares about on-the-field performance, this is all about media rights deals and expanding footprints. |
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07-03-2022, 03:19 PM | #2724 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Puyallup, WA
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Quote:
Media rights were about the last round of expansion and led to clear mistakes. More and more sports are being watched on streaming services and eyeballs mean far more there than how many people are in your market. Not to say market doesn't mean anything, but you need to matter in that market. Apple, Amazon, Netflix, ect don't are how many people could theoretically watch your product. |
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07-03-2022, 03:24 PM | #2725 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Pacific
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B1G did kick Iowa out back in the 30s. Well, teams refused to play them.
Bring in ND, Mizzou, Oregon and Washington. If you cant get Mizzou, get Pitt. Done deal. That is 20.
__________________
Excuses are for wusses- Spencer Lee Punting is Winning- Tory Taylor The word is Fight! Fight! Fight! For Iowa FOFC 30 Dollar Challenge Champion-OOTP '15 |
07-03-2022, 03:31 PM | #2726 |
Solecismic Software
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Canton, OH
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There's no telling what will happen until football splits from the rest of the college sports landscape.
I'm wondering what was said in the homes of the UCLA and USC baseball and softball coaches last week. At least beach volleyball was spared. |
07-03-2022, 03:43 PM | #2727 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Quote:
This, this, a million fucking billion times THIS. This simple reality does, sadly, come with a caveat though: even the people who are paid to understand this fact have a disturbing tendency to ignore it. Claiming that Rutgers somehow matters in a meaningful number for how many people in the largest media market watch college football is The Emperor's New Clothes of the entire broken system. It's the old cable network "available in a trillion households" ... yes, but how many of those households CARE? con. But we live in a world where media companies AND media buyers don't understand how the most basic bath of their business even works.
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07-03-2022, 03:48 PM | #2728 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Yeah, I still don't buy the effectiveness of the market theory. Ok, I am in the Maryland (DC) market. Do I care? Hell no. I mean, I'll wish the Terps well, but there are about 30 other teams I'd watch before them if given the choice.
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07-03-2022, 04:06 PM | #2729 |
Solecismic Software
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Canton, OH
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Big Ten Network has distribution deals with the three major local cable providers - nj.com
It certainly drove things not that long ago. It may matter less today, but, believe it or not, 65% of households still have cable subscriptions and prices keep going up. Rutgers may have stretched the proverbial limits of the value of a program that matters to a tiny percentage of households getting a network onto basic cable, but it did its job. I don't pretend to know what's going on in Indianapolis (HQ of the Big Ten, or is it Chicago now, can't remember), but I would not dismiss the addition of the 15th largest market (Seattle) or even 25th (Portland, which cares about long-distant Eugene because there's no other game in town). They just took #2 (LA) and could also take #12 (SF) or #19 (Denver). Most experts say San Francisco is not a top priority. That tells me this is more about football than anything else. You want a university that would fit in with the Big Ten, have some LA rivalries, connect a major market, give you international prestige... well, Stanford. And in just about every sport this side of football, it's a force. So, this is about football, the goal is a super-conference and they probably need more western opponents. Like I said, I don't know where this is headed. Perhaps there's confidence that Stanford would never consider the SEC super-conference, so this is about establishing boundaries. It's not quite Coke and Pepsi, but it seems somewhat similar. Of course, one leader somewhere could change all of this in an instant. The SEC fired that shot in going to 16. The Big Ten responded, and again changed the landscape. It's all very interesting, but it will absolutely require football to split off on its own, maybe sooner than we think possible. |
07-03-2022, 04:24 PM | #2730 |
Solecismic Software
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Going long here...
So let's say this is about football and the goal is a super-conference that brings billions in revenue. You're the Big Ten. You have a collection of great universities and fans everywhere. But... you're #2 or worse on the field. You can't compete head-up with the SEC because a large percentage of athletes grew up in areas where the SEC is king. You can't be satisfied with a super-conference that rivals the SEC super-conference (assuming Clemson and Florida State get out of the anchor that the ACC threw around them with that 2036 media rights agreement). Because there will be better football, on average, in the SEC. The status quo is only fine for now. Long-term, with a football-only landscape, you need to thrash the SEC in media rights. You need to beat them by so much, per school, that the elite athletes growing up in SEC country consider the Big Ten the place where elite athletes play. The only way you do that is to lock up media rights. I hope the Big Ten is savvy enough not to sign immediately on a new deal, or sign short-term. Let potential partners see a league that might bring in the whole west coast, maybe Denver and Phoenix as well. Because once you've beaten the SEC in this high-stakes battle, what you've done is gained control over what will be The Superconference, and you've guaranteed your core universities a place at the table - something the lesser southeastern markets won't have unless the SEC becomes The Superconference. Maybe it can't happen. Maybe geography is too strong a pull for teenagers. But this seems like it has to be the goal if you're sitting in the Big Ten's seat. |
07-03-2022, 04:37 PM | #2731 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Hey, by 2036 the B1G will be #1 in the country after the SEC states all secede...
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07-03-2022, 06:56 PM | #2732 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Quote:
I got a pretty good education on how ineffective it can be back in my days of dealing with local market TV on a regular basis. Maybe the easiest example is a real one, from the market I know best: Atlanta When you deep dove into the numbers for alllll the college football games airing here, and I mean going week by week, game by game the pattern was pretty consistent. The worst possible SEC game of the week on the shittiest station at noon (the old syndicated package before anybody had their own network) regularly outdrew -- in every demo -- the very best the ACC had to offer. It was better, not good but better, when GT happened to be in the featured game ... but up to 2x as many people would watch Vandy-Kentucky when neither had a win. What matters, in terms of delivering eyeballs, is how many people give a shit about the team involved. And there's not a statistically significant number of people in Atlanta who give the slightest flying fuck about ACC football unless there's a nationally relevant team at the moment. Literally week after week, the the syndicated games were putting up 0.0 ratings regularly (to do that you have to have less than 0.04% of the demo watching, cause 0.05 will round up to a 0.1 rating) and the ABC featured game on the #1 station in the market was lucky to get to a 0.4. Whereas the absolute worst possible SEC game -- Vandy vs a I-AA team -- would put up at least a 0.9 or 1.0 ... literally over 10 times the audience that Wake vs Maryland (random example) could put up, and double a headliner like FSU vs Va Tech (back in the day) So anybody "yay, the ACC has "Atlanta" in their footprint" all they want, if nobody gives there gives flying fuck then it doesn't have value to anyone who knows how numbers work. I've picked on the ACC and Atlanta here but the same principle applies to any conference and any market.
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07-03-2022, 07:14 PM | #2733 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
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Ditch the NCAA and start a pro developmental league and siphons the money from the schools. Collegiate football should die the death it deserves at this point.
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07-03-2022, 07:26 PM | #2734 | |
College Starter
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Quote:
To go along with this, there were 3 or 4 times I couldn’t even find the GT games available on Atlanta area cable last fall. I keep telling friends that the only value of GT / Atlanta for the Big10 would be to give those Big 10 schools a reason to come to town for recruiting. |
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07-03-2022, 07:33 PM | #2735 | |
Hall Of Famer
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I will point out that when ABC got involved with Big 10 games (and they aired on WSB-TV) those posted the same ratings or worse than the ACC. It's why the whole "oh play only P5" cries are a great indication of somebody who doesn't understand college football fans and in particular don't understand Southern college football fans. People here would just as soon see Troy, Furman, Citadel, whoever as Illinois, Indiana, or any other P5 that isn't a top 10 team.
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07-03-2022, 07:44 PM | #2736 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
It's also easier to sell success to fans and recruits when you're a 9 win team with 3 wins over non-P5 schools than a 6 win team against all P5 opponents. That's the nature of college football and it isn't changing. People that casually watch may like seeing the "better matchups", but those that are putting money into the programs want wins above all else. |
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07-03-2022, 07:54 PM | #2737 | |
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And you really hit on something there that's the bane of my viewing pleasure with a number of things: the $#%$# casuals I don't mind their existence, it's not them I'd like to dip in honey & drop in a fireant mound. No, that's reserved for the fucking idiots who insist on steering courses based on the whims of people who don't actually give a shit about their product. And never ... fucking .. WILL. NASCAR, pro wrestling, now college sports.
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07-03-2022, 08:04 PM | #2738 | |
Hall Of Famer
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Quote:
I think that is it. Rutgers and Maryland got their network into the New York and DC market. It's been estimated to bring in $50 million a year. Now they've added Los Angeles market to that. Already a report that they've raised the carriage fee from $0.10 a subscriber to $1.50 a subscriber. I don't know how many homes subscribe in the Los Angeles market, but that feels like a lot more money. And then you have your national TV deal where you've added two big name schools. It's an extra game you can sell networks or streaming services each week. There is already a report that Apple jumped into the bidding because of the move. It's all about TV money right now. And adding more big name schools to your conference makes that TV package more enticing. |
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07-03-2022, 08:18 PM | #2739 | |
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Quote:
On the other hand, Saban has criticized fans for not showing up or leaving early when they play crap teams. The school had to make an app to encourage people to stay the whole game. I get not caring about playing bad schools like Illinois or Washington State. But the quality of opponent and name recognition does matter in some regards. Their game against Texas will garner much higher TV ratings than their game against Utah State (and Utah State might not be much worse than Texas). And the secondary market shows the price for tickets against Texas A&M dwarf those for the game against Austin Peay this year. |
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07-03-2022, 08:37 PM | #2740 | |
Hall Of Famer
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A&M had a certain degree of relevance this past season, so that's completely in line. (Hell, it's a premium game in some situations). The old names -- Penn State, Texas, OU, hell even Nebraska perhaps -- have an elevated profile despite prolonged struggles in some cases. But until we get down to the 30-40 team size/structure, it isn't always gonna be one of those bigger names. There aren't enough of those to go around for an insular P5 vs P5 scenario in the current structure. SOMEbody is always stuck playing the minnows when you add that up. Hell, even IN-conference has some of that. First visit aside (a thing I noticed, first visits are just different) nobody in Athens gives two fucks about playing Missouri. And honestly, they never will.
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07-03-2022, 08:44 PM | #2741 | |
Coordinator
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Quote:
If Alabama started dropping 2-3 games a year because they scheduled losses to top competition rather than guaranteed wins their fans would be selling their A&M tickets to A&M fans. Wins mean everything to fanbases in college football. Years of sustained wins increases fan interest, drives ticket prices, drives facility improvements, and improves recruiting. Alabama fans give zero shits at the end of the season if they lost 2-3 games against the best teams in the country. They'd still want Sabans head on a pike if happened a couple of years in a row and it would start to erode fan interest. The story is similar for every team in the country. Texas fans would rather win 9-10 in the Big 12 than 6-7 in the SEC. USC has had a big drop in home attendance as their winning has fallen off. They're going to help bring a lot more money to the Big 10, but they need to win or the fans do stop showing up to see 6 win football teams. |
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07-04-2022, 08:25 AM | #2742 |
World Champion Mis-speller
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Covington, Ga.
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No money in it. I have always thought it would be better for the sport in general to have a minor league system for the NFL. But why would they when it would only lose money, and the NCAA does it for free? Sports only exist to pull money out of your pocket.
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07-04-2022, 03:02 PM | #2743 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
They are in the red, but only until the Under Armor lawsuit money kicks in. They weren't about to go under without it, either. Last edited by MrBug708 : 07-04-2022 at 03:03 PM. |
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07-05-2022, 09:08 AM | #2744 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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Jon's posts have really got me thinking. I guess that before you can start to game out how to do things, you need to figure out what you are trying to do.
CFB is being massively shaken up. What do we want left standing after the rubble settles? And different people are going to want different things. |
07-05-2022, 09:10 AM | #2745 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: North Carolina
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dola: Question for Jon (or other who may know):
How does men's basketball figure into all this money-wise? Do the UNCs, Kentuckys, Kansases of the world actually move the money needle? Or is that all still pretty much dwarfed by whatever could generate a few more percentage points of increased football revenue? |
07-05-2022, 09:43 AM | #2746 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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Quote:
See, this dynamic is interesting to me though. SEC areas won't be interested in other conferences -- they have their allegiances/viewing habits and those are hard-set. But what of the other way around? Granted I'm only one data point, but I grew up rooting more or less for Penn State. But I just liked football, so I'd watch pretty much anybody decently ranked. PSU moved to the B1G so I guess I paid a little more attention to them, but it wasn't like I had some big allegiance. Even now, rooting somewhat for Purdue, I don't care that much. If there is a better SEC game on against a B1G game, I'll watch the SEC game. What are CFB numbers like in places like NYC? You can't tell me there's nobody in a city of however million that watches it (but those that do I would say do so independently of uh, Rutgers). Or have you already pulled in whoever is going to be pulled in? I mean, I guess my angle is that there's plenty of CFB available. But give me more quality CFB. That's not Bama vs Troy, or some random MAC matchup. If that's my only option, I'll do something else. Offer me a cross-conference P5 game though, you might keep my eyeballs.
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null Last edited by cuervo72 : 07-05-2022 at 09:45 AM. |
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07-05-2022, 09:53 AM | #2747 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Maryland
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I guess what I do wonder then is yeah, what's the goal? Is it to get more viewers, or to get the viewers you already have to watch more football?
edit: And in those calculations...honestly, do they GAF what those in the SEC think? Aren't they already tapped out, if viewers in Alabama will watch anything that drapes itself in maroon but essentially nothing else?
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null Last edited by cuervo72 : 07-05-2022 at 09:55 AM. |
07-05-2022, 10:51 AM | #2748 | |
Head Coach
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Quote:
I disagree, I think there's tons upon tons of money in it, but it would completely gut all of college sports (because maybe it should). The NCAA and schools would lose out on their cash cow, but I think it would be so much better in the long term. Or go straight to the Academies model and stop pretending that the school is the important part. Who wouldn't want to attend the "Browns" developmental academy?!
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07-05-2022, 10:54 AM | #2749 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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I basically watch:
1. Every Indiana game 2. Big Ten games of interest (if I am not doing something else with my family) 3. Big national games between P5 schools (if I'm not doing anything else with family) |
07-05-2022, 10:56 AM | #2750 |
Resident Alien
Join Date: Jun 2001
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FWIW, a minor-league football thing would not attract my attention nearly as much as college football. The affiliation with my school is crucial to the interest level. Although I guess if Rochester had a minor-league football team, that would grab my interest.
Last edited by Kodos : 07-05-2022 at 10:58 AM. |
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