COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[tarcone]

[JPhillips]

The carrier Theodore Roosevelt has over 200 cases and the Captain is asking for removing all personnel.

[Edward64]

Downstream impacts of the coronavirus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/polit...rus/index.html

More people in need. Less food being donated. And volunteers staying home.

Food banks across the nation are facing a perfect storm as they try to help the growing number of hungry Americans amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Millions of people newly unemployed mean food banks, food pantries and soup kitchens are seeing a flood of new clients appearing at their doors, just as supplies are dwindling because of growing demand from consumers stuck at home.

Food banks are reporting a 40% increase in demand
:
:
Feeding America depends on getting 1.4 billion meals a year in donations from retailers, such as Walmart and supermarkets. That channel has seen a "significant and fast plummet" in deliveries recently because of consumer demand in stores and supply chain constraints, Fitzgerald said. Its donations from food manufacturers, which total about 580 million meals, also have dropped by about half this month.

[ISiddiqui]

I've been wondering about the food banks. Increased demand and decreased supply is going to wreck havoc on them. Not to mention a decrease in the people who are serving - as plenty of people who volunteer at food banks tend to be older.

The donations from supermarkets is something I completely forgot about as well. I really really hope we don't end up a starvation crisis in this country in April .

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

On the schools thing, I figure most of the powers that be are just taking things one step at a time. As fast as this thing is changing, it doesn't seem imprudent to me to focus on what they need to do the next week or to only in most circumstances.

This issue that I have with the way they are handling this is twofold. First, the state have made it pretty clear that they are all in on e-learning for the rest of the year. Based on the communications that I see as a parent and the communications that I see that is sent to employees, 99% of it reads like we are going to be out the rest of the year. It does not make sense to me to add kids and school staff to the mix for 10 school days. Especially as Jas lov asked, you are not sure how many of your students and staff will be back due to health concerns.

The second reason is it just feels we as a state are voluntarily staying two steps behind where we need to be to get over the crisis as opposed to trying to be one step ahead. The idea that that we will get through this "together" seems to ring hollow with this sort of patchwork approach.

[Ben E Lou]

Chris Cuomo diagnosed with COVID-19

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Chris Cuomo diagnosed with COVID-19

Gov. Andrew Cuomo getting some brotherly shade in. Said he'll be fine, he's young, he's in good shape, he's strong "but not as strong as he thinks". LOL

[NobodyHere]

Well I just learned that one of my company's competitors went out of business.

That's not good for my psyche at the moment.

[RainMaker]

We just filed for one of the grants/loans through the SBA. Not hurt yet by this but would have to lay people off soon. This would allow us to keep everyone on the payroll through the whole thing.

Not a ton of faith in the SBA and was disappointed to learn that places like Starbucks qualify too. But we'll see what happens. Haven't heard back yet despite their supposedly "quick turnaround time".

[Flasch186]

Most of my agents are independent contractors but I'm trying to push as much SBA stuff and grants and loan stuff at them as possible. Such is the life of commission people. If you save when times are good you might be able to weather the downs. I've seen this cycle before in RE. Not necessarily the same obviously but ups and downs nonetheless. It'll be interesting to see how the new models fare through this.

[BishopMVP]

Not sure how much was tied in to New York heavily testing & then pulling back, and I'm sure Florida & a couple other places will spike soon, but it's encouraging that we still haven't hit as many new cases as 3/16 on any day since - Cases in U.S. | CDC

Going back to "business as usual" by Easter or even May 1 is dumb, but it's time to start thinking about how to start opening back up the country slowly. Massachusetts pushed schools back a week to May 4 (and schools do get out much later there than the south/west), but I think re-opening them is looking more & more like a good idea. As ventilator/ICU capacity is upped & some treatments show promise in keeping mild cases from progressing (hydrochloroquine + Z-Paks + Zinc supplements were one combo that anecdotally is working), we're much better off long term exposing more of the (younger) population & starting to build up herd immunity in enough people to have a semi-funcrioning economy (though I'd still encourage as many white collar workers to work from home and limit business travel as possible, and I'll be interested to see the long term effects on "office" culture & even commercial real estate.)

[Arles]

IMO, I don't see anything substantial happening until Labor Day in terms of letting people congregate again. I could see reopening some business with limits on people in one place (ie, salons) but it looks like the worst (in terms of hospitalizations) won't be happening until early May in most places. It would be irresponsible to start opening things up when hospitals are at max capacity. But, if things get better in that area, we could look at that. I just don't see it at this point.

[Lathum]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hospitals Tell Doctors They’ll Be Fired If They Speak Out About Lack of Gear

I'm torn on this. On the one hand, they should absolutely have the best gear as quickly as possible. But, there are known shortages and to think hospitals and state governments aren't doing everything they can isn't really fair. Continuing to feed the press this stuff does nothing but cause more of a frenzy, panic everyone and start unrest in the population. What's the upside of doing that? Do we really think hospitals would be like "Well, I don't think we are going to do anything about the shortage of masks. Wait! Nurse Bob just complained to the local paper - well we better go get it now!"

I think at some point everyone has to take steps to limit the panic. I'm not sure it's productive to fire healthcare workers over it out of the blue - but I think it's reasonable to tell them there will be a penalty for talking to the press about every issue going on. Imagine being a hospital administrator and getting death threats everyday because two of your workers told the NY Times they don't have enough equipment. Especially when there's absolutely nothing you can do. Maybe the fact that I know a few and they are getting these threats is coloring my judgement a bit - but even if I didn't, I don't see any productive reason to keep inciting this panic.

[Lathum]

The problem I have with it is THIS ADMINISTRATION in particular needs to have constant pressure put on them to get anything accomplished. If stories from the front line aren't getting out they will spin it as everything is ok.

[JPhillips]

The former FDA commissioner has a good plan for reopening at AEI. Nothing shocking, reduce the curve, aggressive testing and tracking in local areas, new restrictions as flare ups occur, but it's a well thought-out plan.

[Lathum]

This is one I could see never coming back

JCPenney says it has made the "difficult decision to temporarily furlough the majority of store hourly associates" and that a "significant portion" of its corporate employees will be placed on leave. The retailer had about 90,000 employees as of Feb. 1. https://t.co/QWA6TYgkuu

— CNN (@CNN) March 31, 2020

[Arles]

I guess, the problem is all the "Trumpers" take it out on the local administrators. So, I understand they want to put a stop into the self-sabotage. It's not an easy issue for sure, but I'm not sure what more hospitals can do at this point.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

I'm torn on this. On the one hand, they should absolutely have the best gear as quickly as possible. But, there are known shortages and to think hospitals and state governments aren't doing everything they can isn't really fair. Continuing to feed the press this stuff does nothing but cause more of a frenzy, panic everyone and start unrest in the population. What's the upside of doing that? Do we really think hospitals would be like "Well, I don't think we are going to do anything about the shortage of masks. Wait! Nurse Bob just complained to the local paper - well we better go get it now!"

I think at some point everyone has to take steps to limit the panic. I'm not sure it's productive to fire healthcare workers over it out of the blue - but I think it's reasonable to tell them there will be a penalty for talking to the press about every issue going on. Imagine being a hospital administrator and getting death threats everyday because two of your workers told the NY Times they don't have enough equipment. Especially when there's absolutely nothing you can do. Maybe the fact that I know a few and they are getting these threats is coloring my judgement a bit - but even if I didn't, I don't see any productive reason to keep inciting this panic.

Maybe there should be panic if medical professionals don't have access to basic PPE during a pandemic?

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Maybe there should be panic if medical professionals don't have access to basic PPE during a pandemic?

Because public panic will help procurement groups obtain it?

No panic will cause others to try to acquire scarce resources.
Face it none of us really need to know as much a we want to.

It makes me think of how being connected isnt so good...I want to expand on that thought later after work.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Maybe there should be panic if medical professionals don't have access to basic PPE during a pandemic?

And telling a hospital on it's bullshit (claiming a certain standard of gear is sufficient when it isn't) as that Nurse in Chicago aparently did is most definitely is not merely "complaining".

The insane thing is that with this disease it might be more 'efficient' to not treat a patient at all than to get infected doing it and then spreading it (remember that sick patients do get sicker if exposed again during their treatment, not to mention the spread to different areas of the hospital via colleagues or into the outside world). Imagine facing that for a second, not to mention any personal risk.

I agree that hospitals have limited options now, but being transparent might be something that you should consider as an institution within a democratic country. Sometimes it is interesting how ultra-capitalism and autocratic regimes produce similar behaviour from institutions. Also, as a whole the current situation for PPE seems partly screwed up in the US due to the lack of federal Organisation of the process, isnt it ? I mean, everybody is scrambling but it seems pretty strange that the US seems to struggle that much on that front.

Public pressure is definitely not optional here imo, not when the guy ultimately holding the strings is not exactly swayed by quiet rationality.

[Brian Swartz]

Nah on the panic thing. Panic solves nothing.

It does appear that today will be the worst one yet overall for the world. USA, UK, France at least with the worth death totals to date.

[Lathum]

I would assume some hospitals get public funding in one way or another, couldn't this be a potential 1st amendment violation?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

Because public panic will help procurement groups obtain it?

No panic will cause others to try to acquire scarce resources.
Face it none of us really need to know as much a we want to.

It makes me think of how being connected isnt so good...I want to expand on that thought later after work.

It would add transparency and inform the public of the situation. We should know the failures in our response to this pandemic. And perhaps it would add pressure to leadership to get their shit in order. Or inform the public that those leaders should be ousted.

This isn't China. We should know if our health system is failing.

[HomerSimpson98]

As the spouse of a nurse working on the front lines, fucking trumpet this shortage and drop fucking leaflets from all the rafters. Fuck the hospital's feelings. The mother of my kids is putting her ass on the line everyday she goes to work, knowing there is a shortage of equipment that keeps her safe.


In fact, if shit doesn't change soon and these equipment shortages aren't solved, her last day at work may be soon.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Nah on the panic thing. Panic solves nothing.

It does appear that today will be the worst one yet overall for the world. USA, UK, France at least with the worth death totals to date.

France started counting deaths outside hospitals like retirement homes today that never even get admitted, so that is part of it there. (A ton are never even tested as well so really it is even higher everywhere)

Most countries (all but Italy and Spain) are still 2 weeks away from where you could even hope for deaths not to rise anymore, just the 'math' of this thing

Netherlands and Belgium have low-key terrible outbreaks as well, their death totals adjusting to population are getting scary bad. Belgium adjusted to Italys Population would have been over 1000 today and both countries have higher total numbers adjusted than France.
And both reacted very late and timidly at the start.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Easier for me to ask here & check back for answer(s) later than to Google this shit so that's what I'm going to do:

Is there a consensus about immunity after illness? i.e. if somebody gets it, once recovered are they believed clear at this point from getting it again?
And, related question: is non-symptomatic exposure enough if that's the case, or is a more hardcore case of it required to convey any immunity?

(This relates not to macro-questions, this is super micro question prompted by a household I know personally back in my hometown)

[RainMaker]

I have a bad feeling that Florida is on the verge of getting hammered. Governor has been slow on the shutdowns and there are a lot of retirement communities. Hope I'm wrong but it feels like a disaster waiting to happen for them.

[Brian Swartz]

Fauci has said he's confident that immunity does happen after someone gets it. I don't think the symptomatic part is relevant but I don't know for sure.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Easier for me to ask here & check back for answer(s) later than to Google this shit so that's what I'm going to do:

Is there a consensus about immunity after illness? i.e. if somebody gets it, once recovered are they believed clear at this point from getting it again?
And, related question: is non-symptomatic exposure enough if that's the case, or is a more hardcore case of it required to convey any immunity?

(This relates not to macro-questions, this is super micro question prompted by a household I know personally back in my hometown)

This is what my brother told me. He's a biochemist for a pharmaceutical company and has a good deal of knowledge in this stuff (especially lungs which is his specialty).

It is highly unlikely that you can contract it again. This is based on how similar viruses have been handled by our immune system over the years and no credible reports of coming down with it again. Whether that immunity is for life or a span of like 10 years is unknown.

Not sure on your second question but it's a good one. I texted him to see what he thinks.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I have a bad feeling that Florida is on the verge of getting hammered. Governor has been slow on the shutdowns and there are a lot of retirement communities. Hope I'm wrong but it feels like a disaster waiting to happen for them.

Yeah. The way things have been handled down there combined with the old population seems like a really, really bad mix.

[Lathum]

I think Florida likely ends up with the highest death toll when it is all said and done, depending on how they count the deaths.

[RainMaker]

Here is his text response. Think he understood what I was asking.

Oh yeah. You just need to be exposed to the genetic material. Load can matter but probably not that important. It's why we typically do multiple rounds of certain vaccines. Most likely the first round gets 99%, the next round brings it to, 99.5%, etc. And those are numbers for complete immunity. Even if after the first round you are in the 1%, you still have probably drastically helped your immune system in fighting off the disease. But you may still get mild symptoms. Our immune system is insanely effective wit these things. We even don't need to have the whole sequence exposed to us. A mere fragment should do it

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Easier for me to ask here & check back for answer(s) later than to Google this shit so that's what I'm going to do:

Is there a consensus about immunity after illness? i.e. if somebody gets it, once recovered are they believed clear at this point from getting it again?
And, related question: is non-symptomatic exposure enough if that's the case, or is a more hardcore case of it required to convey any immunity?

(This relates not to macro-questions, this is super micro question prompted by a household I know personally back in my hometown)

As with everything, I don't think there is a consensus on either question. I remember early on, there were anecdotes of people getting it twice but then there were questions about the testing.

[ISiddiqui]

Looks like 770+ deaths in the US today. Up to 3,780 deaths in the US in total.

[Ben E Lou]

Shockingly somber tone from Trump in his opening (prepared) remarks in the presser today.



"I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We're going to go through a very tough two weeks"

[Ben E Lou]

Dr Birx showing model for potential number of dead in US. With “no intervention,” the model shows 1.5 to 2 million deaths. “With intervention” shows 100,000-240,000 deaths. Still very sobering.

— Jim Acosta (@Acosta) March 31, 2020

[miami_fan]

The "don't trust institutions" narrative is problematic in a pandemic.

[Arles]

Rainmaker, thanks for the answers. That makes a lot of sense.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Here is his text response. Think he understood what I was asking.

I listened to a podcast last night (certainly not an authoritative source, especially as it's not strictly a health podcast) that suggested worst case scenario is this becomes the flu, where it changes enough seasonally that we (or at least the most at risk) have to get vaccinated every year.

If you happen to be texting, I'd be interested to see if that's a realistic scenario from his perspective or just random BS.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Shockingly somber tone from Trump in his opening (prepared) remarks in the presser today.



"I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead. We're going to go through a very tough two weeks"

Yeah, but at the same time he was still going with the "I was calling this a pandemic before anyone else was" BS.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Yeah, but at the same time he was still going with the "I was calling this a pandemic before anyone else was" BS.

I didn't suggest that he has changed--just more "if TRUMP is like this, it's about to get BAD."

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Yeah, but at the same time he was still going with the "I was calling this a pandemic before anyone else was" BS.

Has he broken out the "I've saved millions of lives through my actions" line yet?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I listened to a podcast last night (certainly not an authoritative source, especially as it's not strictly a health podcast) that suggested worst case scenario is this becomes the flu, where it changes enough seasonally that we (or at least the most at risk) have to get vaccinated every year.

If you happen to be texting, I'd be interested to see if that's a realistic scenario from his perspective or just random BS.

I don't even play a doctor on TV, but I heard this question as well on a different interview with a medical expert. I don't remember the exact answer, but it basically was that the strains that live on tend to be weaker over time. So, even if a "new version" comes out next February - it would be much weaker. He said something like this happening with the swine flu. Again, I wish I was paying more attention and would be interested in what others have to say. But, that's the gist of what I remembered.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Has he broken out the "I've saved millions of lives through my actions" line yet?

Birx and Fauci answering all questions so far.



(While typing this, "yes, we should be prepared for 100,000 deaths within a couple of months" from Fauci.)

[tarcone]

Feds say mitigation, our Governor says personal responsibility. Im losing respect for our Gov.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Feds say mitigation, our Governor says personal responsibility. Im losing respect for our Gov.

Your governor may be the only one doing a worse job than Florida's sadly.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I listened to a podcast last night (certainly not an authoritative source, especially as it's not strictly a health podcast) that suggested worst case scenario is this becomes the flu, where it changes enough seasonally that we (or at least the most at risk) have to get vaccinated every year.

If you happen to be texting, I'd be interested to see if that's a realistic scenario from his perspective or just random BS.

Actually the issue with the flu is not justbit changing per se but also that there is a bunch of Influenza Viruses and you have to kind of chose which ones to include in the vaccination based on early data on which are circulating the most.

Generally, Coronaviruses are a lot less likely to mutate (at least substantially, every virus mutates a bit), one Virologist over here put it at 'about 10 times less' than the average Influenza virus.

[grdawg]

Originally Posted by Radii

Your governor may be the only one doing a worse job than Florida's sadly.

Georgia’s says hold my beer!

[lungs]

Don’t know if it will amount to much in regards to the overall food supply, but I’m seeing a few troubling trends in various places.

-A beef packing plant has been shut down due to positive tests on workers. Price of live cattle has cratered. I’ve seen some farmers having contracts for slaughter cancelled because processing capacity is limited.

- I’ve seen a few vegetable farmers nervous about H2-A workers not being able to come this year. Our undocumented population could theoretically pick up the slack.

- Milk is starting to get dumped. The price of milk has cratered once again. Cheese and butter are piling up because restaurants are shut down. Schools made up a decent chunk of demand. Temporary spike in fluid demand at grocery stores isn’t making up. That sound you are hearing is the bullet I dodged by selling my cows and farm while I still had my shirt.

-The oil price war makes ethanol a bad buy right now. Ethanol plants are trying to use act of god provisions in contracts to get out of them and shut down. They will lose less money by sitting idle.

Even with Trump’s farmer welfare of the past few years, agriculture is pretty well fucked at this point and I’m glad I jumped off that bus. The general economy had been stellar up until all this craziness. Ag was the exception so it’ll be interesting to see how this will shake out for the average person and food in general. The immediate concern would be in processing as that could end up being a bottleneck with plants getting shut down due to the virus.